I came back to earth last week, going just 4-4, and am now 23-9-3 over the last four weeks. If that as bad as it gets from here on out, I’ll be one happy camper.
All side opinions went 10-6 last week and are now 100-82-8 55% over the first thirteen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it’s more important to look at each team’s last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NY GIANTS –2.5 Washington 37.5
A battle of two teams headed nowhere and, quite frankly, have probably quit for the season. The problem with trying to take either of these teams is they have no identity. Neither team runs or throws the ball well. The Giants offense has been a turnover machine all year long. And, over their last five games, the Giants are averaging 4.3 ypr against teams allowing 4.3 ypr and 5.1 yps against teams allowing 5.9 yps. They will face a Washington defense that is giving up yards in big chunks. The Redskins defense is now allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 6.8 yps against 6.1 yps over their last five games. For Washington, their offense has been below average, gaining 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr but just 4.7 yps against 5.5 yps. They’ll go against a Giants defense that is defending the run, allowing just 3.8 ypr against 4.4 ypr but allowing 6.6 yps against 5.8 yps. We have two anemic offenses and only one average defense, which is the Giants. The Giants qualify as a turnover table play, which is 798-620-35, including a subset of that, which is 126-67-3. Washington does qualify in a contrary situation, which is 299-215-11. Final numbers suggest a two point win for the Giants (all games) and a 3.5 point win for the Redskins (last five games). I’ll reluctantly side with the better defense. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 78-43-1 (5-2 TY). My final points predict about 45 points (all games) and 42 points (last five games), making it tough to play the under, but that is the way I will lean. NY GIANTS 20 WASHINGTON 16
BALTIMORE –3.5 Cincinnati 40
Five of the eight divisions showcase their number one team against the number two team this week. This is one of them and it should be a great game. Cincinnati has really played well over their last seven weeks, having won six of those games, including in come from behind fashion last week against Pittsburgh. For Baltimore, they have been playing well for some time now, although it has been just the last two weeks that they have had any type of passing game. Two weeks ago, they averaged 6.4 yps and last week averaged 6.3 yps. That’s a major step up from where they were early this season. I really don’t think this game will be that close. Cincinnati has done a nice job this year, especially on offense, where they are averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 6.5 yps against 6.2 yps over their last five games. But this week, they will run into a defense that is allowing just 3.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 4.5 yps against 6.0 yps over their last five games. Matt Hasselbeck and Seattle passed for 293 yards but they only averaged out at 6.1 yps and Seattle averages 6.6 yps over their last five games, so Baltimore actually held them to 0.5 yps below their average. The Baltimore defense is better than the Cincinnati offense. On the other side of the ball, Baltimore should be able to move the ball against a below average defense. Baltimore is averaging 3.9 ypr against 4.0 ypr and only 5.1 yps against 5.7 yps. They did average 6.4 yps against Seattle, who allows only 5.9 yps and they averaged 6.3 yps last week against San Francisco, who allows 6.4 yps. So, since Anthony Wright came aboard, they have actually averaged better or close to what their opponents are allowing. And they’ll face a Cincinnati defense, which is allowing 4.8 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 5.8 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games. Cincinnati has now won and covered four straight games but that doesn’t bode well for them here and they qualify in a negative letdown situation, which is a 62-27-4 play against situation. Baltimore, off their dominating win last week, qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 25-7-0. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 527-404-32 (38-24-3 TY), including a subset, which is 138-58-6 (9-4-1 TY). It’s been a nice run for Cincinnati but Oakland, Cleveland, Buffalo, Arizona, San Diego and Pittsburgh are not good teams and those are the teams Cincinnati has defeated on the road this year. Final numbers only favor Baltimore by two points (all games) and .5 points (last five games) but that’s before accounting for the terrific situations they qualify in this week. This game also qualifies in two under situations, which are 301-226-11 (15-10 TY) and 146-74-2 (7-4 TY). But my final numbers show closer to 47 points (all games) and 53 points (last five games), making the under a tough call. But, I will lean that way because of the situations. BALTIMORE 26 CINCINNATI 13
PHILADELPHIA –5.5 Dallas 36.5
Another 1-2 match-up this week. I have no situations on either team in this game, so we’ll just have to look at the numbers and decide where to side. The Dallas offense is averaging 4.0 ypr against 3.7 ypr and 5.3 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games. They’ll face a Philly team that is below average defensively, allowing 5.7 ypr against 4.7 ypr and 5.3 yps against 5.5 yps for a total of 5.5 yppl against 5.1 yppl. The Philly offense is playing much better, averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.5 ypr and 7.9 yps against 5.6 yps for a total of 6.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl. For Dallas, their defense continues to play well, allowing just 3.3 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 5.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Their game against Miami was a little deceiving because they were blown out of that game on big plays. They did allow Miami to throw for 11.0 yps but in the end, Dallas ended up averaging 5.8 yppl and Miami just 5.6 yppl. Granted Miami was in control the whole game but the final numbers do suggest it was a game of a few big plays that set the tone for the rest of the game. Bill Parcells has always been a great coach when getting points. Parcells is now 57-41-2 when getting points, including 46-29-1 when on the road, 31-14-1 when getting four or more points, and 17-4 if coming off a loss, getting four or more points on the road. Final numbers suggest a two point game (all games) and a 10 point game (last five games). I will side with Dallas, who has had since last Thursday to plan for this game, combined with Parcells history of getting his teams to bounce back after losses. PHILADELPHIA 17 DALLAS 16
PITTSBURGH –5 Oakland 41
This game is very similar to the Giants game. It features two teams headed nowhere and Oakland, like Washington, qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 299-215-11 and Pittsburgh, like the Giants, qualify in the turnover table situation, which is 798-620-35. Pittsburgh doesn’t qualify in the subset like the Giants did. The Pittsburgh defense, overall, is a little better than the Oakland defense, but they both have their weaknesses. Pittsburgh is allowing 6.3 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games, while Oakland is allowing 7.0 yps against 6.0 yps and 4.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games. Pittsburgh defends the run better, allowing 4.1 ypr against 4.2 ypr. But on offense, Oakland is a little better, between two below average offenses. The Raiders are averaging 5.0 yppl against 5.3 yppl and Pittsburgh is averaging just 4.6 yppl against 5.3 yppl. I find it awful tough to lay points in this game with a Pittsburgh team that has won only two games this year by more than seven points. And Oakland is playing hard and has lost only three games by more than seven points, with two of them being to Denver. Last week’s final was a little misleading for both teams. Oakland actually out averaged Denver, 4.8 yppl to 4.2 yppl, but turned the ball over three times to only once for Denver. Pittsburgh hung tough in their game, but they were out averaged 6.5 yppl to 5.1 yppl. The week before, Pittsburgh was beaten badly by Cleveland but won the game because of five Cleveland turnovers. Final numbers suggest Pittsburgh by only 3.5 points (all games) and 5 points (last five games). This game also qualifies in two under situations, which are 49-24-4 and 78-43-1 (5-2 TY). Final numbers suggest only 38 points (all games) and 32 points (last five games), which also gives us value to the under. I decided to pass on the under because both defenses are below average, but this game stands a good chance to go under the total. PITTSBURGH 20 OAKLAND 17
DETROIT –2.5 San Diego 43.5
This is a very tough game for me to call on the side because there are great situations favoring both teams. In addition, the San Diego defense has been horrible this year (but better lately), allowing at least 20 points in every game but the Detroit offense has been equally horrible, scoring more than 20 only three times. So, something has to give in this game. The Lions offense has been horrible and they are averaging just 3.1 ypr against 4.7 ypr and 5.1 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games. Fortunately for them, they face a SD defense, which is allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.5 ypr and 6.4 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games. On the other side, SD has continued to rush the ball very well, averaging 5.7 ypr against 4.9 ypr and 5.5 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. They will face an above average Lions defense, which is allowing just 3.9 ypr against 4.6 ypr and 5.5 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games. What we have here is a Lions offense that can’t throw the ball, even though SD doesn’t defend the pass well. And we have a Lions defense that is weaker defending the pass, but a SD offense that doesn’t throw the ball well. Don’t be mislead by last weeks game against the Packers. Detroit was out gained in that game, 320-266 and out averaged, 5.6 yppl to 3.9 yppl. The Lions passed for just 4.7 yps but survived on five Packer turnovers. For SD, they lost to KC last week but they played a great game, out gaining KC, 370-335 and out averaging them, 5.9 yppl to 4.8 yppl. If you take out the last drive for SD, which was a garbage drive to most (not me because I had SD), they would have ended up with only 286 yards but still averaged 5.2 yppl. I’ll side with SD in this game, because I would rather have the dog in a toss up game and I don’t want to lay points with an anemic offense. But, I really like the total in this game. This game qualifies in an under situation, which is 225-122-6 (9-5 TY). My final points suggest about 44 points (all games) and about 41 points (last five games) but even without the value, I think this game stands a good chance to be lower scoring. Brett Favre and Mike Tice have both said over the last week, that the Detroit front four on defense, is the best they have faced this year. And, that stands to reason, since Detroit has been so good against the rush this year and allowed GB just 52 yards at 3.3 ypr last week. That was a GB team that was able to run against anybody lately, no matter how many people they put in the box to stop the run. At home this year, Detroit allowed Arizona 24 points but some of those points were in garbage time, allowed a good Vikings offense 23 points, Dallas 38 points and only 13 to Oakland, 10 to Chicago and 14 to Green Bay. That averages out to 20 points per game but only 12 points over their last three home games. SD, on the road, hasn’t been able to put it together this year. Against above average defenses, they have scored 21 at Jacksonville (that was a garbage touchdown late in the game), 10 versus Miami, 7 at Chicago and 8 at Denver. Against above average defenses, they have only averaged about 12 points per game. It stands to reason, they will probably end up somewhere around 14-17 points in this game. That means Detroit would have to score at least 27-30 points in this game to go over the total. I just don’t see that happening, seeing Detroit has only scored more than 23 points once this year. That was the first game of the season against Arizona, when they scored 42 but 14 of those points came on a punt return and an interception return. Turnovers could certainly do me in here, but I’ll take my chances. DETROIT 17 SAN DIEGO 16
GREEN BAY –7 Chicago 38.5
GB continues to give away chances to catch the Vikings. While I’m not sure Minnesota will win another game this year, GB better start winning these games or they will be watching the playoffs from home this year. The Packers do get back Sharper and Barnett on defense and those two are their best two athletes on defense. Chicago has been playing great ball as of late, especially on defense. Chicago is now allowing 4.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 4.7 yps against 5.3 yps over their last five games. The offense is still horrible, averaging just 3.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 5.1 yps against 5.9 yps. They did throw for 6.7 yps last week against Arizona but I’ll chalk that up to being Arizona and I have to see that for a couple of weeks before I can say their passing offense is back on track. For the Packers, as mentioned in the Detroit write-up, they played well enough to win last week, if it weren’t for the five turnovers (four in the fourth quarter), which ultimately did them in. They’ve had extra time to prepare for this game and should be healthier and better prepared and focused for Chicago. GB is still averaging 5.7 ypr against 4.8 ypr and 5.4 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games. On defense, they are allowing 4.3 ypr against 4.2 ypr but only 4.8 yps against 6.0 yps. I don’t see Chicago being able to throw the ball on them. The Bears have gone over 100 yards rushing on the road only twice this year. GB qualifies as a turnover table play this week, which is 798-620-35. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 527-404-32 (38-24-3 TY), including a subset, which is 426-298-24 (28-15-1 TY). Final numbers suggest a nine point win (all games) and a 1 point win (last five games). I like GB here, with the extra rest, focused coming off a loss and in a couple of good situations. GREEN BAY 27 CHICAGO 14
MINNESOTA –1.5 Seattle 51
The wheels are coming off the cart in Minnesota. From Mike Tice not being a nice guy to his players anymore to a Chris Hovan meltdown on the radio this week, this team is falling farther and farther into a hole. I get a kick out of the Minnesota players continuing to say they need to look at the film and correct their mistakes. The simple problem is they don’t have enough talent on defense to win games, much less even stop anybody. When Mike Tice says he likes the match-up, like he did last week for the Rams game, he clearly isn’t seeing the right things on film or he is just trying to gain some confidence with his team. It’s one thing to allow 48 points to the Rams last week (a few of those scores were by the defense directly or indirectly) but to allow 396 yards at 8.4 yppl is embarrassing. That’s 8.4 yppl! Now the Rams offense is clearly better at home than on the road, but we’re still talking about an offense, which is just above average, gaining just 5.3 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games. The Vikings are now allowing 6.0 ypr against 4.6 ypr and 7.5 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. That totals to 6.7 yppl against 5.1 yppl over the last five games. That, my friends, is the worse defense in the league over the last five games, and it isn’t even close. And how they are going to stop a Seattle offense, which has begun to open it up lately, is beyond me. Seattle is now averaging 4.4 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 6.6 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games. That works out to 5.6 yppl against 5.0 yppl. If these averages continue, Seattle can be expected to gain about 7.3 yppl this week and about 451 yards of offense. That would amount to about 29-44 points in this game. The Vikings offense has been pretty good this year, averaging 5.2 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 6.2 yps against 5.7 yps over the last five games. And they should find some success against a Seattle defense, which is allowing 4.0 ypr against 3.6 ypr and 5.9 yps against 5.2 yps over the last five games. Based on their horrible defense last week, the Vikings qualify in a negative situation, which is 82-42-5 and plays against them here. They also qualify in another situation, which is similar, and is 171-99-10 and plays against them, including a subset, which is 126-60-7. Seattle just misses out on a fundamental rushing situation, which is 527-404-32 (38-24-2 TY). Much will be made about Seattle losing four of five games on the road this year, but let’s look at who has beat them. They have lost at Green Bay (who is better than Minnesota), at Cincinnati (who is better than Minnesota), at Washington (who is probably as good as Minnesota), and at Baltimore (who is better than Minnesota). And, except for the GB game, they were in all of those games, including blowing a huge lead at Baltimore. They probably should have won that game but Tom White’s crew screwed them out of a win. Now, whom has Minnesota defeated this year? They defeated GB, by catching them at the right time, even though GB revenged that loss in Minnesota later in the year, have defeated Detroit twice (although barely in their last meeting two weeks ago at home), defeated Chicago, who they will lose to next week, Atlanta, and banged up Denver and San Francisco teams. The NFL is all about playing teams at the right time and this isn’t the right time to be playing Seattle. And I’ll take Mike Holmgren over Mike Tice any day of the week. Minnesota has allowed less than 20 points to only four teams. Those teams are Detroit (twice), Chicago once and San Francisco. Detroit and Chicago may be the two worse offenses in the NFL. Seattle has scored at least 20 in every game but one this year. Against the only other balanced offense they have faced this year, Minnesota has allowed GB 25 and 30 points. I like Seattle big here and if they lose, this game will have to go over the total, because you can mark Seattle down for at least 24 points in this game and I think it will be much more. SEATTLE 36 MINNESOTA 26
JACKSONVILLE –6 Houston 38.5
I’ve been saying how much I like Jacksonville just about all year now and last week they finally put it all together, beating TB 17-10 and dominating that game. They gained 359 yards to just 221 for TB and out averaged TB, 5.2 yppl to 3.7 yppl. The Jacksonville offense is pretty average, but getting better each week, averaging 4.9 yppl against 4.9 yppl. But, their defense has been great, allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.2 yppl and above average against both, the run and the pass. And, remember, they have faced the likes of Indianapolis and Tennessee twice each and the Jets. All five of those games are against offenses that can throw the ball all over the field. This is a great match-up for them this week against Houston. The Houston offense is averaging 4.5 yppl against 4.8 yppl, and their defense is allowing 5.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl and below average against both, the run and the pass. Jacksonville qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 527-404-32 (38-24-3 TY), including a subset, which is 138-58-6 (9-4-1 TY). Final numbers suggest Jacksonville by 5.5 points (all games) and by three points (last five games) but the situations are in their favor as is the fundamental match-up for this game. I’m not quite ready to start laying this many points with a young Jacksonville team that might still be celebrating their win over TB last week, but I will definitely lean their way. JACKSONVILLE 24 HOUSTON 14
TENNESSEE –3.5 Indianapolis 46
Both these teams blew golden opportunities to take the lead in their division last week. This is a huge game for Tennessee because a loss here would mean two losses on the year to Indy and put them two games behind Indy for the division, because they would have to win the division outright. This match-up is very similar for both teams, as neither team has run the ball effectively this year, with Indy gaining just 3.3 ypr against 3.4 ypr and Tennessee gaining just 3.4 ypr against 3.7 ypr over their last five games. But, both teams can throw the ball, with Indy averaging 6.8 yps against 5.8 yps and Tennessee averaging 7.0 yps against 6.0 yps. The Indy defense is a little worse, allowing 4.4 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 6.4 yps against 6.1 yps. Tennessee is allowing 3.4 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 6.1 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games. Indy qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 798-620-35. My final numbers suggest a 3.5 point win for Tennessee (all games) and 7.5 point win (last five games). But, I lean towards the situation (turnover table) and take the points in this game. The play I really like is the over. Both teams throw the ball incredibly well and neither team defends the pass particularly well. Indy has scored at least 20 points in all but two games this year and Tennessee has scored at least 25 points in all but three games this year. Both teams should get into the twenties, and if that happens, this game as an excellent change of going over the total. Final numbers suggest about 58 points (all games) and 59 points (last five games). I like the over INDIANAPOLIS 31 TENNESSEE 30
NEW ORLEANS –1.5 Tampa Bay 40
I already reviewed how badly TB was beaten last week at Jacksonville (see Jacksonville write-up) and although NO won their game last week, they weren’t very impressive in doing so. The Saints only gained 310 yards at 4.6 yppl, while allowing Washington to gain 392 yards at 5.8 yppl. They allowed Washington to rush for 161 yards at 6.2 ypr. TB hasn’t been rushing the ball very well, gaining just 4.2 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games, but they should find some success against a Saints rush defense, which is allowing 5.7 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. The Saints pass defense has been good lately, allowing just 5.6 yps against 6.0 yps and they’ll face a TB pass offense gaining 5.4 yps against 5.6 yps. The Saints are rushing the ball themselves extremely well, thanks to McAllister. They are now averaging 5.4 ypr against 4.6 ypr over their last five games. That’s slightly better than the TB defense, which is allowing 4.1 ypr against 4.7 ypr. NO does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-56-8 and my final numbers suggest the Saints by 3.5 points (all games) and by 10 points (last five games). I don’t expect Gruden to let his team quit, but it’s pretty hard for a veteran, high paying team, who is now out of the race, to get fired up after winning the SB last year. Repeatedly this team has failed to answer the bell and NO has defeated TB three times over the last 1+ years. I don’t see that changing this week. NO has allowed at least 100 yards rushing in every game but two this year. One of those games was their game at TB. So, there is no indication TB will be able to take advantage of the porous NO rush defense. This game qualifies in an under situation, which is 301-226-11 (15-10 TY). Final points suggest about 38 points (all games) and 42 points (last five games). I was actually thinking about the over in this game but the situation lies to the under, which is where I will now lean. TB has scored more than 19 points only once in their last seven games. NEW ORLEANS 20 TAMPA BAY 13
SAN FRANCISCO –10 Arizona 41.5
I must be pretty stubborn because I’ll be on these damn Cardinals again this week. You can certainly make a good argument for not taking Arizona on the road. After all, they have now lost every road game this year by at least 13 points. At least the line is getting closer to that 13 point mark. Last week they made Kordell Stewart look like Dan Marino, allowing the Bears to throw for 268 yards at 6.7 yps. That was only the second time the Bears had topped the 200 yard passing mark this year (SD the other time). I really can’t make a great case for the fundamentals or even value in this game. But the situations clearly lie with Arizona and I am a slave to the situations, which have me at over 60% this year and at 57% winners last year, so I am not going to fight with them. I passed on two games a few weeks ago and they both covered so I will just do what the situations dictate and leave it in their hands. Arizona qualifies in a general situation, which is 42-16-1. San Francisco, after their terrible defensive performance last week, qualifies in a negative momentum situation, which is 69-29-4 and plays against them here. SF also qualifies in another negative momentum situation, which is 171-100-10, including the best subset, which is 71-25-2 and plays against SF here. Arizona also qualifies in two different contrary situations, which are similar, and they are 299-215-11 (12-8-1 TY) and 160-104-4 (4-2 TY). Arizona is also a turnover table play, which is 798-620-35, including a subset, which is 123-70-4 (6-1 TY). Again, I can’t make a great case for Arizona, especially after their debacles on the road this year, but the situations greatly favor them and some of them are very strong situations, performing well this year. SAN FRANCISCO 20 ARIZONA 17
BUFFALO –3 NY Jets 36
The situations favor Buffalo here and it’s pretty hard to recommend laying points with an anemic offense but I will do just that, and I think I can make a decent case for doing so. There is no question the Buffalo offense has been poor this year, but they finally exploded, if you will, for 24 points last week. They gained 403 yards at 5.4 yppl. And they did it with the run, gaining 151 yards at 4.2 ypr and the pass, gaining 252 yards at 6.6 yps. Over their last five games, Buffalo is now averaging 4.8 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 4.2 yps against 5.9 yps. The offense is still below average but the rushing game is really performing well now. The Bills have now rushed for over 100 yards in six straight games. The last time they didn’t rush for 100 yards was against these Jets. But, their offense was beat up badly that day. The last time the Jets didn’t allow a 100 yard rusher, with the exception of last week, was against these Bills. The Jets had gone six straight games allowing at least 100 yards rushing. Over their last five games, they are allowing 3.6 ypr against 3.8 ypr but 7.5 yps against 6.1 yps. Buffalo should be able to exploit that some. On offense, the Jets continue to get better and better with Pennington back, averaging 4.2 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 7.4 yps against 6.4 yps. But they are going to face a very stiff test this week against the Bills defense, which is allowing just 2.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 5.7 yps against 5.9 yps. The numbers favor the Jets by two (all games) and by 1 point (last five games) but I like the way Buffalo is playing lately and will side with the better defense and the team who figures to rush the ball better. BUFFALO 20 NY JETS 16
NEW ENGLAND –3 Miami 36
Another 1-2 match-up. And another game where the situations favor both teams and they are strong situations going both ways. You really have to like what Bill Belichick is doing with this team. And, unlike their SB year two years ago, where the numbers weren’t that great, but they were winning with heart and determination, their numbers are getting better and better each week. NE still doesn’t run the ball well, averaging just 2.8 ypr against 3.9 ypr but they are passing for 7.1 yps against 5.8 yps over the last five weeks. On defense, they have been above average against both, the run and the pass, allowing just 3.5 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 4.4 yps against 5.6 yps. The Miami defense has been equally good, allowing just 3.6 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 5.6 yps against 5.8 yps. But, on offense, Miami has struggled, gaining just 3.5 ypr against 3.9 ypr and passing for 6.0 yps against 5.7 yps. Those numbers might continue to get better with Fiedler back but time will only tell with that. Miami is 1-4 when failing to rush for 100 yards this year, and NE has only allowed four teams to rush for over 100 yards and Miami wasn’t one of them earlier in the year. I just don’t see how Miami will rush for 100 yards in this game and that will be their Achilles Heel in this game. Final numbers favor NE by 3.5 points (all games) and by 4.5 points (last five games). NEW ENGLAND 18 MIAMI 13
DENVER –2.5 Kansas City 45
I will be on Denver in this game and I would rather have a more favorable line, because my numbers do favor KC by 1.5 points (all games) and by 1 point (last five games) but the situation is very favorable for Denver and one I really like. Denver lost to KC earlier this year, 23-24, but they out gained KC in that game, 469-261 and out averaged them, 6.7 yppl to 4.9 yppl. Denver averaged 5.7 ypr and 7.5 yps, while KC averaged 5.5 ypr but only 4.4 yps. There are still a lot of questions Denver needs to answer. A lot of their problems on offense were excused because Plummer wasn’t playing but since his return, Denver has beat a bad SD team at home, lost to Chicago at home, and defeated the Raiders last week but not in convincing fashion as turnovers helped the Broncos, despite Oakland winning the yard per play battle. But, KC has their own questions to answer. Their defense seems to be getting worse and worse every game now. Last week they allowed SD to average 5.8 yppl (5.2 yppl minus the last drive), while only gaining 4.8 yppl themselves. They are now allowing 5.2 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games and 5.2 yps against 5.5 yps. That doesn’t bode well against a Denver offense that is averaging 4.7 ypr against 4.1 ypr but just 4.6 yps against 5.3 yps. The Broncos defense, despite the injuries, continues to play well, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 5.0 yps against 5.8 yps. KC is averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games and they are throwing the ball well, averaging 6.9 yps against 6.2 yps over that same time period. KC has really struggled on the road against good teams, beating Baltimore by seven but needing a kick return to do so, despite being out played in that game. A +3 in the turnover ratio helped them dramatically. They lost at Cincinnati in a game they were behind just about the whole way. And they were getting blown out in GB before a fourth quarter 70-80 interception return got them back in that game. Denver qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 527-404-32 (38-24-3 TY), including the best subset, which is 138-58-6 (9-4-1 TY). The numbers don’t favor Denver but the situation does and that makes the line fair. The fundamentals also do with a team who can rush the ball against a team who can’t stop the rush. My numbers also show a fairly high scoring game, with 44 points (all games) to 47 points (last five games), but I have three different situations applying to the under in this game, which are 301-226-11 (15-10 TY), 146-74-2 (7-4 TY), and 225-122-6 (9-5 TY). That should be enough to keep you off the over and at least think about the under. DENVER 27 KANSAS CITY 17
Carolina –1 ATLANTA 41
I don’t have any situations, which favor either team here, but I do lean towards the better defense, which is Carolina and a possible over. Carolina lost last week to Philadelphia but they moved the ball in that game and accumulated 336 yards at 5.6 yppl, while limiting Philadelphia to just 283 yards at 5.0 yppl. Turnovers, missed field goals and a missed extra point did them in. Philadelphia took advantage of the opportunities they had and Carolina did not. I don’t think they’ll have quite as many problems this week against an Atlanta team who won’t pose as big a threat. Yes, Atlanta gets Vick back and he should recharge an offense that has struggled to throw the ball. Atlanta is averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.6 ypr over their last five games and that number will probably only get better with Vick back. They are only averaging 4.5 yps against 6.0 yps but that will also probably get better with Vick. The defense, however, is still allowing 5.0 ypr against 4.2 ypr but only 5.6 yps against 6.0 yps over the last five games. Carolina is only running for 3.6 ypr against 4.4 ypr over the last five games but is throwing for 7.9 yps against 5.7 yps. Those rushing numbers are a little weaker because they faced TB and Dallas but in the other three games against poor rush defenses, they ran the ball very well and I expect them to do the same this week, as well as throw the ball well. Carolina’s defense is allowing 3.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 5.3 yps against 5.7 yps but Atlanta should be able to move the ball some in this game, with Vick back. Final numbers favor Carolina by 1.5 points (all games) and Atlanta by 7.5 points (last five games), while predicting about 42 points (all games) and 48 points (last five games). I like Carolina and the over, because of the fundamentals. CAROLINA 26 ATLANTA 20
St. Louis –4 CLEVELAND 43
I’ll continue to go against what I consider to be an over rated Rams team. The Rams are a very good team at home, because they can take advantage of their speed on the carpet. But they are a different team on the road, especially playing on grass, where their speed is negated somewhat. The Rams are now just 4-14 ats when playing on the road on a grass field, since 2000, including just 1-3 this year. On the road this year, they have allowed an average of 128 yards rushing per game at an average of 4.8 ypr. They have allowed five of their six opponents to average at least 4.4 ypr. Cleveland is not a great rushing team, averaging just 3.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games, but they have averaged 103 yards rushing per game at home this year at 3.8 ypr. When the Rams have allowed more than 100 yards rushing per game on the road, they are now 0-9 ats in their last nine games, including going just 1-8 SU (0-3 ats, 1-2 SU this year). It would appear Cleveland has a shot of rushing for 100 yards in this game and if they do that, they stand a good chance of not only covering but winning straight up. The Rams continue to struggle running the ball, averaging just 4.1 ypr against 4.3 ypr (four games with Marshall Faulk). They are also below average throwing the ball, averaging 5.9 yps against 6.0 yps over their last five games. The Rams rush defense over their last five games has failed them, allowing 4.9 ypr against 4.1 ypr, while the pass defense is allowing 5.1 yps against 5.5 yps. The Rams have won only one road game this year by more than three points, while Cleveland hasn’t lost a home game by more than seven points this year, meaning they have been very competitive in their home games. Cleveland qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 59-32-2. I’ve also talked each week about teams who are not covering the spread against teams who are covering the spread. The teams not covering the spread are the teams that make you money, in the right situation. Cleveland qualifies in a situation based on that, which is 276-180-21 (11-5-2 TY). Cleveland is also a turnover table play, which is 798-620-35, including qualifying in subsets, which are 126-67-3 and 140-79-5. They also qualify in a Monday night situation, which is 62-26-2. The Rams, meanwhile, qualify in a negative scheduling situation, which is 160-89-8 and plays against them here. Poor rush defenses laying points on the road are not profitable situations and Cleveland stands a good chance to take advantage of that against a Rams team that is playing in it’s worse element Monday night. Final numbers favor the Rams by a .5 point (all games) and by 3.5 points (last five games), giving immediate value to Cleveland before I account for any of the terrific situations they qualify in. CLEVELAND 27 ST LOUIS 24
BEST BETS
YTD 47-31-5 +31.50%
3% BALTIMORE –3.5
3% SEATTLE +1.5
3% CLEVELAND +4
2% ARIZONA +10
2% DENVER –2.5 (No higher than –3)
2% SD/DET UNDER 43.5
2% SEA/MINN OVER 51
2% INDY/TENN OVER 46
All side opinions went 10-6 last week and are now 100-82-8 55% over the first thirteen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it’s more important to look at each team’s last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NY GIANTS –2.5 Washington 37.5
A battle of two teams headed nowhere and, quite frankly, have probably quit for the season. The problem with trying to take either of these teams is they have no identity. Neither team runs or throws the ball well. The Giants offense has been a turnover machine all year long. And, over their last five games, the Giants are averaging 4.3 ypr against teams allowing 4.3 ypr and 5.1 yps against teams allowing 5.9 yps. They will face a Washington defense that is giving up yards in big chunks. The Redskins defense is now allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 6.8 yps against 6.1 yps over their last five games. For Washington, their offense has been below average, gaining 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr but just 4.7 yps against 5.5 yps. They’ll go against a Giants defense that is defending the run, allowing just 3.8 ypr against 4.4 ypr but allowing 6.6 yps against 5.8 yps. We have two anemic offenses and only one average defense, which is the Giants. The Giants qualify as a turnover table play, which is 798-620-35, including a subset of that, which is 126-67-3. Washington does qualify in a contrary situation, which is 299-215-11. Final numbers suggest a two point win for the Giants (all games) and a 3.5 point win for the Redskins (last five games). I’ll reluctantly side with the better defense. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 78-43-1 (5-2 TY). My final points predict about 45 points (all games) and 42 points (last five games), making it tough to play the under, but that is the way I will lean. NY GIANTS 20 WASHINGTON 16
BALTIMORE –3.5 Cincinnati 40
Five of the eight divisions showcase their number one team against the number two team this week. This is one of them and it should be a great game. Cincinnati has really played well over their last seven weeks, having won six of those games, including in come from behind fashion last week against Pittsburgh. For Baltimore, they have been playing well for some time now, although it has been just the last two weeks that they have had any type of passing game. Two weeks ago, they averaged 6.4 yps and last week averaged 6.3 yps. That’s a major step up from where they were early this season. I really don’t think this game will be that close. Cincinnati has done a nice job this year, especially on offense, where they are averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 6.5 yps against 6.2 yps over their last five games. But this week, they will run into a defense that is allowing just 3.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 4.5 yps against 6.0 yps over their last five games. Matt Hasselbeck and Seattle passed for 293 yards but they only averaged out at 6.1 yps and Seattle averages 6.6 yps over their last five games, so Baltimore actually held them to 0.5 yps below their average. The Baltimore defense is better than the Cincinnati offense. On the other side of the ball, Baltimore should be able to move the ball against a below average defense. Baltimore is averaging 3.9 ypr against 4.0 ypr and only 5.1 yps against 5.7 yps. They did average 6.4 yps against Seattle, who allows only 5.9 yps and they averaged 6.3 yps last week against San Francisco, who allows 6.4 yps. So, since Anthony Wright came aboard, they have actually averaged better or close to what their opponents are allowing. And they’ll face a Cincinnati defense, which is allowing 4.8 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 5.8 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games. Cincinnati has now won and covered four straight games but that doesn’t bode well for them here and they qualify in a negative letdown situation, which is a 62-27-4 play against situation. Baltimore, off their dominating win last week, qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 25-7-0. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 527-404-32 (38-24-3 TY), including a subset, which is 138-58-6 (9-4-1 TY). It’s been a nice run for Cincinnati but Oakland, Cleveland, Buffalo, Arizona, San Diego and Pittsburgh are not good teams and those are the teams Cincinnati has defeated on the road this year. Final numbers only favor Baltimore by two points (all games) and .5 points (last five games) but that’s before accounting for the terrific situations they qualify in this week. This game also qualifies in two under situations, which are 301-226-11 (15-10 TY) and 146-74-2 (7-4 TY). But my final numbers show closer to 47 points (all games) and 53 points (last five games), making the under a tough call. But, I will lean that way because of the situations. BALTIMORE 26 CINCINNATI 13
PHILADELPHIA –5.5 Dallas 36.5
Another 1-2 match-up this week. I have no situations on either team in this game, so we’ll just have to look at the numbers and decide where to side. The Dallas offense is averaging 4.0 ypr against 3.7 ypr and 5.3 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games. They’ll face a Philly team that is below average defensively, allowing 5.7 ypr against 4.7 ypr and 5.3 yps against 5.5 yps for a total of 5.5 yppl against 5.1 yppl. The Philly offense is playing much better, averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.5 ypr and 7.9 yps against 5.6 yps for a total of 6.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl. For Dallas, their defense continues to play well, allowing just 3.3 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 5.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Their game against Miami was a little deceiving because they were blown out of that game on big plays. They did allow Miami to throw for 11.0 yps but in the end, Dallas ended up averaging 5.8 yppl and Miami just 5.6 yppl. Granted Miami was in control the whole game but the final numbers do suggest it was a game of a few big plays that set the tone for the rest of the game. Bill Parcells has always been a great coach when getting points. Parcells is now 57-41-2 when getting points, including 46-29-1 when on the road, 31-14-1 when getting four or more points, and 17-4 if coming off a loss, getting four or more points on the road. Final numbers suggest a two point game (all games) and a 10 point game (last five games). I will side with Dallas, who has had since last Thursday to plan for this game, combined with Parcells history of getting his teams to bounce back after losses. PHILADELPHIA 17 DALLAS 16
PITTSBURGH –5 Oakland 41
This game is very similar to the Giants game. It features two teams headed nowhere and Oakland, like Washington, qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 299-215-11 and Pittsburgh, like the Giants, qualify in the turnover table situation, which is 798-620-35. Pittsburgh doesn’t qualify in the subset like the Giants did. The Pittsburgh defense, overall, is a little better than the Oakland defense, but they both have their weaknesses. Pittsburgh is allowing 6.3 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games, while Oakland is allowing 7.0 yps against 6.0 yps and 4.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games. Pittsburgh defends the run better, allowing 4.1 ypr against 4.2 ypr. But on offense, Oakland is a little better, between two below average offenses. The Raiders are averaging 5.0 yppl against 5.3 yppl and Pittsburgh is averaging just 4.6 yppl against 5.3 yppl. I find it awful tough to lay points in this game with a Pittsburgh team that has won only two games this year by more than seven points. And Oakland is playing hard and has lost only three games by more than seven points, with two of them being to Denver. Last week’s final was a little misleading for both teams. Oakland actually out averaged Denver, 4.8 yppl to 4.2 yppl, but turned the ball over three times to only once for Denver. Pittsburgh hung tough in their game, but they were out averaged 6.5 yppl to 5.1 yppl. The week before, Pittsburgh was beaten badly by Cleveland but won the game because of five Cleveland turnovers. Final numbers suggest Pittsburgh by only 3.5 points (all games) and 5 points (last five games). This game also qualifies in two under situations, which are 49-24-4 and 78-43-1 (5-2 TY). Final numbers suggest only 38 points (all games) and 32 points (last five games), which also gives us value to the under. I decided to pass on the under because both defenses are below average, but this game stands a good chance to go under the total. PITTSBURGH 20 OAKLAND 17
DETROIT –2.5 San Diego 43.5
This is a very tough game for me to call on the side because there are great situations favoring both teams. In addition, the San Diego defense has been horrible this year (but better lately), allowing at least 20 points in every game but the Detroit offense has been equally horrible, scoring more than 20 only three times. So, something has to give in this game. The Lions offense has been horrible and they are averaging just 3.1 ypr against 4.7 ypr and 5.1 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games. Fortunately for them, they face a SD defense, which is allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.5 ypr and 6.4 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games. On the other side, SD has continued to rush the ball very well, averaging 5.7 ypr against 4.9 ypr and 5.5 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. They will face an above average Lions defense, which is allowing just 3.9 ypr against 4.6 ypr and 5.5 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games. What we have here is a Lions offense that can’t throw the ball, even though SD doesn’t defend the pass well. And we have a Lions defense that is weaker defending the pass, but a SD offense that doesn’t throw the ball well. Don’t be mislead by last weeks game against the Packers. Detroit was out gained in that game, 320-266 and out averaged, 5.6 yppl to 3.9 yppl. The Lions passed for just 4.7 yps but survived on five Packer turnovers. For SD, they lost to KC last week but they played a great game, out gaining KC, 370-335 and out averaging them, 5.9 yppl to 4.8 yppl. If you take out the last drive for SD, which was a garbage drive to most (not me because I had SD), they would have ended up with only 286 yards but still averaged 5.2 yppl. I’ll side with SD in this game, because I would rather have the dog in a toss up game and I don’t want to lay points with an anemic offense. But, I really like the total in this game. This game qualifies in an under situation, which is 225-122-6 (9-5 TY). My final points suggest about 44 points (all games) and about 41 points (last five games) but even without the value, I think this game stands a good chance to be lower scoring. Brett Favre and Mike Tice have both said over the last week, that the Detroit front four on defense, is the best they have faced this year. And, that stands to reason, since Detroit has been so good against the rush this year and allowed GB just 52 yards at 3.3 ypr last week. That was a GB team that was able to run against anybody lately, no matter how many people they put in the box to stop the run. At home this year, Detroit allowed Arizona 24 points but some of those points were in garbage time, allowed a good Vikings offense 23 points, Dallas 38 points and only 13 to Oakland, 10 to Chicago and 14 to Green Bay. That averages out to 20 points per game but only 12 points over their last three home games. SD, on the road, hasn’t been able to put it together this year. Against above average defenses, they have scored 21 at Jacksonville (that was a garbage touchdown late in the game), 10 versus Miami, 7 at Chicago and 8 at Denver. Against above average defenses, they have only averaged about 12 points per game. It stands to reason, they will probably end up somewhere around 14-17 points in this game. That means Detroit would have to score at least 27-30 points in this game to go over the total. I just don’t see that happening, seeing Detroit has only scored more than 23 points once this year. That was the first game of the season against Arizona, when they scored 42 but 14 of those points came on a punt return and an interception return. Turnovers could certainly do me in here, but I’ll take my chances. DETROIT 17 SAN DIEGO 16
GREEN BAY –7 Chicago 38.5
GB continues to give away chances to catch the Vikings. While I’m not sure Minnesota will win another game this year, GB better start winning these games or they will be watching the playoffs from home this year. The Packers do get back Sharper and Barnett on defense and those two are their best two athletes on defense. Chicago has been playing great ball as of late, especially on defense. Chicago is now allowing 4.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 4.7 yps against 5.3 yps over their last five games. The offense is still horrible, averaging just 3.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 5.1 yps against 5.9 yps. They did throw for 6.7 yps last week against Arizona but I’ll chalk that up to being Arizona and I have to see that for a couple of weeks before I can say their passing offense is back on track. For the Packers, as mentioned in the Detroit write-up, they played well enough to win last week, if it weren’t for the five turnovers (four in the fourth quarter), which ultimately did them in. They’ve had extra time to prepare for this game and should be healthier and better prepared and focused for Chicago. GB is still averaging 5.7 ypr against 4.8 ypr and 5.4 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games. On defense, they are allowing 4.3 ypr against 4.2 ypr but only 4.8 yps against 6.0 yps. I don’t see Chicago being able to throw the ball on them. The Bears have gone over 100 yards rushing on the road only twice this year. GB qualifies as a turnover table play this week, which is 798-620-35. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 527-404-32 (38-24-3 TY), including a subset, which is 426-298-24 (28-15-1 TY). Final numbers suggest a nine point win (all games) and a 1 point win (last five games). I like GB here, with the extra rest, focused coming off a loss and in a couple of good situations. GREEN BAY 27 CHICAGO 14
MINNESOTA –1.5 Seattle 51
The wheels are coming off the cart in Minnesota. From Mike Tice not being a nice guy to his players anymore to a Chris Hovan meltdown on the radio this week, this team is falling farther and farther into a hole. I get a kick out of the Minnesota players continuing to say they need to look at the film and correct their mistakes. The simple problem is they don’t have enough talent on defense to win games, much less even stop anybody. When Mike Tice says he likes the match-up, like he did last week for the Rams game, he clearly isn’t seeing the right things on film or he is just trying to gain some confidence with his team. It’s one thing to allow 48 points to the Rams last week (a few of those scores were by the defense directly or indirectly) but to allow 396 yards at 8.4 yppl is embarrassing. That’s 8.4 yppl! Now the Rams offense is clearly better at home than on the road, but we’re still talking about an offense, which is just above average, gaining just 5.3 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games. The Vikings are now allowing 6.0 ypr against 4.6 ypr and 7.5 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. That totals to 6.7 yppl against 5.1 yppl over the last five games. That, my friends, is the worse defense in the league over the last five games, and it isn’t even close. And how they are going to stop a Seattle offense, which has begun to open it up lately, is beyond me. Seattle is now averaging 4.4 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 6.6 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games. That works out to 5.6 yppl against 5.0 yppl. If these averages continue, Seattle can be expected to gain about 7.3 yppl this week and about 451 yards of offense. That would amount to about 29-44 points in this game. The Vikings offense has been pretty good this year, averaging 5.2 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 6.2 yps against 5.7 yps over the last five games. And they should find some success against a Seattle defense, which is allowing 4.0 ypr against 3.6 ypr and 5.9 yps against 5.2 yps over the last five games. Based on their horrible defense last week, the Vikings qualify in a negative situation, which is 82-42-5 and plays against them here. They also qualify in another situation, which is similar, and is 171-99-10 and plays against them, including a subset, which is 126-60-7. Seattle just misses out on a fundamental rushing situation, which is 527-404-32 (38-24-2 TY). Much will be made about Seattle losing four of five games on the road this year, but let’s look at who has beat them. They have lost at Green Bay (who is better than Minnesota), at Cincinnati (who is better than Minnesota), at Washington (who is probably as good as Minnesota), and at Baltimore (who is better than Minnesota). And, except for the GB game, they were in all of those games, including blowing a huge lead at Baltimore. They probably should have won that game but Tom White’s crew screwed them out of a win. Now, whom has Minnesota defeated this year? They defeated GB, by catching them at the right time, even though GB revenged that loss in Minnesota later in the year, have defeated Detroit twice (although barely in their last meeting two weeks ago at home), defeated Chicago, who they will lose to next week, Atlanta, and banged up Denver and San Francisco teams. The NFL is all about playing teams at the right time and this isn’t the right time to be playing Seattle. And I’ll take Mike Holmgren over Mike Tice any day of the week. Minnesota has allowed less than 20 points to only four teams. Those teams are Detroit (twice), Chicago once and San Francisco. Detroit and Chicago may be the two worse offenses in the NFL. Seattle has scored at least 20 in every game but one this year. Against the only other balanced offense they have faced this year, Minnesota has allowed GB 25 and 30 points. I like Seattle big here and if they lose, this game will have to go over the total, because you can mark Seattle down for at least 24 points in this game and I think it will be much more. SEATTLE 36 MINNESOTA 26
JACKSONVILLE –6 Houston 38.5
I’ve been saying how much I like Jacksonville just about all year now and last week they finally put it all together, beating TB 17-10 and dominating that game. They gained 359 yards to just 221 for TB and out averaged TB, 5.2 yppl to 3.7 yppl. The Jacksonville offense is pretty average, but getting better each week, averaging 4.9 yppl against 4.9 yppl. But, their defense has been great, allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.2 yppl and above average against both, the run and the pass. And, remember, they have faced the likes of Indianapolis and Tennessee twice each and the Jets. All five of those games are against offenses that can throw the ball all over the field. This is a great match-up for them this week against Houston. The Houston offense is averaging 4.5 yppl against 4.8 yppl, and their defense is allowing 5.2 yppl against 5.1 yppl and below average against both, the run and the pass. Jacksonville qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 527-404-32 (38-24-3 TY), including a subset, which is 138-58-6 (9-4-1 TY). Final numbers suggest Jacksonville by 5.5 points (all games) and by three points (last five games) but the situations are in their favor as is the fundamental match-up for this game. I’m not quite ready to start laying this many points with a young Jacksonville team that might still be celebrating their win over TB last week, but I will definitely lean their way. JACKSONVILLE 24 HOUSTON 14
TENNESSEE –3.5 Indianapolis 46
Both these teams blew golden opportunities to take the lead in their division last week. This is a huge game for Tennessee because a loss here would mean two losses on the year to Indy and put them two games behind Indy for the division, because they would have to win the division outright. This match-up is very similar for both teams, as neither team has run the ball effectively this year, with Indy gaining just 3.3 ypr against 3.4 ypr and Tennessee gaining just 3.4 ypr against 3.7 ypr over their last five games. But, both teams can throw the ball, with Indy averaging 6.8 yps against 5.8 yps and Tennessee averaging 7.0 yps against 6.0 yps. The Indy defense is a little worse, allowing 4.4 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 6.4 yps against 6.1 yps. Tennessee is allowing 3.4 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 6.1 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games. Indy qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 798-620-35. My final numbers suggest a 3.5 point win for Tennessee (all games) and 7.5 point win (last five games). But, I lean towards the situation (turnover table) and take the points in this game. The play I really like is the over. Both teams throw the ball incredibly well and neither team defends the pass particularly well. Indy has scored at least 20 points in all but two games this year and Tennessee has scored at least 25 points in all but three games this year. Both teams should get into the twenties, and if that happens, this game as an excellent change of going over the total. Final numbers suggest about 58 points (all games) and 59 points (last five games). I like the over INDIANAPOLIS 31 TENNESSEE 30
NEW ORLEANS –1.5 Tampa Bay 40
I already reviewed how badly TB was beaten last week at Jacksonville (see Jacksonville write-up) and although NO won their game last week, they weren’t very impressive in doing so. The Saints only gained 310 yards at 4.6 yppl, while allowing Washington to gain 392 yards at 5.8 yppl. They allowed Washington to rush for 161 yards at 6.2 ypr. TB hasn’t been rushing the ball very well, gaining just 4.2 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games, but they should find some success against a Saints rush defense, which is allowing 5.7 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. The Saints pass defense has been good lately, allowing just 5.6 yps against 6.0 yps and they’ll face a TB pass offense gaining 5.4 yps against 5.6 yps. The Saints are rushing the ball themselves extremely well, thanks to McAllister. They are now averaging 5.4 ypr against 4.6 ypr over their last five games. That’s slightly better than the TB defense, which is allowing 4.1 ypr against 4.7 ypr. NO does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-56-8 and my final numbers suggest the Saints by 3.5 points (all games) and by 10 points (last five games). I don’t expect Gruden to let his team quit, but it’s pretty hard for a veteran, high paying team, who is now out of the race, to get fired up after winning the SB last year. Repeatedly this team has failed to answer the bell and NO has defeated TB three times over the last 1+ years. I don’t see that changing this week. NO has allowed at least 100 yards rushing in every game but two this year. One of those games was their game at TB. So, there is no indication TB will be able to take advantage of the porous NO rush defense. This game qualifies in an under situation, which is 301-226-11 (15-10 TY). Final points suggest about 38 points (all games) and 42 points (last five games). I was actually thinking about the over in this game but the situation lies to the under, which is where I will now lean. TB has scored more than 19 points only once in their last seven games. NEW ORLEANS 20 TAMPA BAY 13
SAN FRANCISCO –10 Arizona 41.5
I must be pretty stubborn because I’ll be on these damn Cardinals again this week. You can certainly make a good argument for not taking Arizona on the road. After all, they have now lost every road game this year by at least 13 points. At least the line is getting closer to that 13 point mark. Last week they made Kordell Stewart look like Dan Marino, allowing the Bears to throw for 268 yards at 6.7 yps. That was only the second time the Bears had topped the 200 yard passing mark this year (SD the other time). I really can’t make a great case for the fundamentals or even value in this game. But the situations clearly lie with Arizona and I am a slave to the situations, which have me at over 60% this year and at 57% winners last year, so I am not going to fight with them. I passed on two games a few weeks ago and they both covered so I will just do what the situations dictate and leave it in their hands. Arizona qualifies in a general situation, which is 42-16-1. San Francisco, after their terrible defensive performance last week, qualifies in a negative momentum situation, which is 69-29-4 and plays against them here. SF also qualifies in another negative momentum situation, which is 171-100-10, including the best subset, which is 71-25-2 and plays against SF here. Arizona also qualifies in two different contrary situations, which are similar, and they are 299-215-11 (12-8-1 TY) and 160-104-4 (4-2 TY). Arizona is also a turnover table play, which is 798-620-35, including a subset, which is 123-70-4 (6-1 TY). Again, I can’t make a great case for Arizona, especially after their debacles on the road this year, but the situations greatly favor them and some of them are very strong situations, performing well this year. SAN FRANCISCO 20 ARIZONA 17
BUFFALO –3 NY Jets 36
The situations favor Buffalo here and it’s pretty hard to recommend laying points with an anemic offense but I will do just that, and I think I can make a decent case for doing so. There is no question the Buffalo offense has been poor this year, but they finally exploded, if you will, for 24 points last week. They gained 403 yards at 5.4 yppl. And they did it with the run, gaining 151 yards at 4.2 ypr and the pass, gaining 252 yards at 6.6 yps. Over their last five games, Buffalo is now averaging 4.8 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 4.2 yps against 5.9 yps. The offense is still below average but the rushing game is really performing well now. The Bills have now rushed for over 100 yards in six straight games. The last time they didn’t rush for 100 yards was against these Jets. But, their offense was beat up badly that day. The last time the Jets didn’t allow a 100 yard rusher, with the exception of last week, was against these Bills. The Jets had gone six straight games allowing at least 100 yards rushing. Over their last five games, they are allowing 3.6 ypr against 3.8 ypr but 7.5 yps against 6.1 yps. Buffalo should be able to exploit that some. On offense, the Jets continue to get better and better with Pennington back, averaging 4.2 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 7.4 yps against 6.4 yps. But they are going to face a very stiff test this week against the Bills defense, which is allowing just 2.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 5.7 yps against 5.9 yps. The numbers favor the Jets by two (all games) and by 1 point (last five games) but I like the way Buffalo is playing lately and will side with the better defense and the team who figures to rush the ball better. BUFFALO 20 NY JETS 16
NEW ENGLAND –3 Miami 36
Another 1-2 match-up. And another game where the situations favor both teams and they are strong situations going both ways. You really have to like what Bill Belichick is doing with this team. And, unlike their SB year two years ago, where the numbers weren’t that great, but they were winning with heart and determination, their numbers are getting better and better each week. NE still doesn’t run the ball well, averaging just 2.8 ypr against 3.9 ypr but they are passing for 7.1 yps against 5.8 yps over the last five weeks. On defense, they have been above average against both, the run and the pass, allowing just 3.5 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 4.4 yps against 5.6 yps. The Miami defense has been equally good, allowing just 3.6 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 5.6 yps against 5.8 yps. But, on offense, Miami has struggled, gaining just 3.5 ypr against 3.9 ypr and passing for 6.0 yps against 5.7 yps. Those numbers might continue to get better with Fiedler back but time will only tell with that. Miami is 1-4 when failing to rush for 100 yards this year, and NE has only allowed four teams to rush for over 100 yards and Miami wasn’t one of them earlier in the year. I just don’t see how Miami will rush for 100 yards in this game and that will be their Achilles Heel in this game. Final numbers favor NE by 3.5 points (all games) and by 4.5 points (last five games). NEW ENGLAND 18 MIAMI 13
DENVER –2.5 Kansas City 45
I will be on Denver in this game and I would rather have a more favorable line, because my numbers do favor KC by 1.5 points (all games) and by 1 point (last five games) but the situation is very favorable for Denver and one I really like. Denver lost to KC earlier this year, 23-24, but they out gained KC in that game, 469-261 and out averaged them, 6.7 yppl to 4.9 yppl. Denver averaged 5.7 ypr and 7.5 yps, while KC averaged 5.5 ypr but only 4.4 yps. There are still a lot of questions Denver needs to answer. A lot of their problems on offense were excused because Plummer wasn’t playing but since his return, Denver has beat a bad SD team at home, lost to Chicago at home, and defeated the Raiders last week but not in convincing fashion as turnovers helped the Broncos, despite Oakland winning the yard per play battle. But, KC has their own questions to answer. Their defense seems to be getting worse and worse every game now. Last week they allowed SD to average 5.8 yppl (5.2 yppl minus the last drive), while only gaining 4.8 yppl themselves. They are now allowing 5.2 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games and 5.2 yps against 5.5 yps. That doesn’t bode well against a Denver offense that is averaging 4.7 ypr against 4.1 ypr but just 4.6 yps against 5.3 yps. The Broncos defense, despite the injuries, continues to play well, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 5.0 yps against 5.8 yps. KC is averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games and they are throwing the ball well, averaging 6.9 yps against 6.2 yps over that same time period. KC has really struggled on the road against good teams, beating Baltimore by seven but needing a kick return to do so, despite being out played in that game. A +3 in the turnover ratio helped them dramatically. They lost at Cincinnati in a game they were behind just about the whole way. And they were getting blown out in GB before a fourth quarter 70-80 interception return got them back in that game. Denver qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 527-404-32 (38-24-3 TY), including the best subset, which is 138-58-6 (9-4-1 TY). The numbers don’t favor Denver but the situation does and that makes the line fair. The fundamentals also do with a team who can rush the ball against a team who can’t stop the rush. My numbers also show a fairly high scoring game, with 44 points (all games) to 47 points (last five games), but I have three different situations applying to the under in this game, which are 301-226-11 (15-10 TY), 146-74-2 (7-4 TY), and 225-122-6 (9-5 TY). That should be enough to keep you off the over and at least think about the under. DENVER 27 KANSAS CITY 17
Carolina –1 ATLANTA 41
I don’t have any situations, which favor either team here, but I do lean towards the better defense, which is Carolina and a possible over. Carolina lost last week to Philadelphia but they moved the ball in that game and accumulated 336 yards at 5.6 yppl, while limiting Philadelphia to just 283 yards at 5.0 yppl. Turnovers, missed field goals and a missed extra point did them in. Philadelphia took advantage of the opportunities they had and Carolina did not. I don’t think they’ll have quite as many problems this week against an Atlanta team who won’t pose as big a threat. Yes, Atlanta gets Vick back and he should recharge an offense that has struggled to throw the ball. Atlanta is averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.6 ypr over their last five games and that number will probably only get better with Vick back. They are only averaging 4.5 yps against 6.0 yps but that will also probably get better with Vick. The defense, however, is still allowing 5.0 ypr against 4.2 ypr but only 5.6 yps against 6.0 yps over the last five games. Carolina is only running for 3.6 ypr against 4.4 ypr over the last five games but is throwing for 7.9 yps against 5.7 yps. Those rushing numbers are a little weaker because they faced TB and Dallas but in the other three games against poor rush defenses, they ran the ball very well and I expect them to do the same this week, as well as throw the ball well. Carolina’s defense is allowing 3.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 5.3 yps against 5.7 yps but Atlanta should be able to move the ball some in this game, with Vick back. Final numbers favor Carolina by 1.5 points (all games) and Atlanta by 7.5 points (last five games), while predicting about 42 points (all games) and 48 points (last five games). I like Carolina and the over, because of the fundamentals. CAROLINA 26 ATLANTA 20
St. Louis –4 CLEVELAND 43
I’ll continue to go against what I consider to be an over rated Rams team. The Rams are a very good team at home, because they can take advantage of their speed on the carpet. But they are a different team on the road, especially playing on grass, where their speed is negated somewhat. The Rams are now just 4-14 ats when playing on the road on a grass field, since 2000, including just 1-3 this year. On the road this year, they have allowed an average of 128 yards rushing per game at an average of 4.8 ypr. They have allowed five of their six opponents to average at least 4.4 ypr. Cleveland is not a great rushing team, averaging just 3.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games, but they have averaged 103 yards rushing per game at home this year at 3.8 ypr. When the Rams have allowed more than 100 yards rushing per game on the road, they are now 0-9 ats in their last nine games, including going just 1-8 SU (0-3 ats, 1-2 SU this year). It would appear Cleveland has a shot of rushing for 100 yards in this game and if they do that, they stand a good chance of not only covering but winning straight up. The Rams continue to struggle running the ball, averaging just 4.1 ypr against 4.3 ypr (four games with Marshall Faulk). They are also below average throwing the ball, averaging 5.9 yps against 6.0 yps over their last five games. The Rams rush defense over their last five games has failed them, allowing 4.9 ypr against 4.1 ypr, while the pass defense is allowing 5.1 yps against 5.5 yps. The Rams have won only one road game this year by more than three points, while Cleveland hasn’t lost a home game by more than seven points this year, meaning they have been very competitive in their home games. Cleveland qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 59-32-2. I’ve also talked each week about teams who are not covering the spread against teams who are covering the spread. The teams not covering the spread are the teams that make you money, in the right situation. Cleveland qualifies in a situation based on that, which is 276-180-21 (11-5-2 TY). Cleveland is also a turnover table play, which is 798-620-35, including qualifying in subsets, which are 126-67-3 and 140-79-5. They also qualify in a Monday night situation, which is 62-26-2. The Rams, meanwhile, qualify in a negative scheduling situation, which is 160-89-8 and plays against them here. Poor rush defenses laying points on the road are not profitable situations and Cleveland stands a good chance to take advantage of that against a Rams team that is playing in it’s worse element Monday night. Final numbers favor the Rams by a .5 point (all games) and by 3.5 points (last five games), giving immediate value to Cleveland before I account for any of the terrific situations they qualify in. CLEVELAND 27 ST LOUIS 24
BEST BETS
YTD 47-31-5 +31.50%
3% BALTIMORE –3.5
3% SEATTLE +1.5
3% CLEVELAND +4
2% ARIZONA +10
2% DENVER –2.5 (No higher than –3)
2% SD/DET UNDER 43.5
2% SEA/MINN OVER 51
2% INDY/TENN OVER 46
