NFL Week 14 (December 12th)
Overall Record = 19-5-1
Best Bet Record = 13-2
Strong Plays 2-2-1
Regular Plays = 4-1
Best Bet = Indianapolis -10
The Colts have won their last 5 games and can clinch
the AFC South division with a win over the Texan's who
have lost 4 out of their last 5 games and don't have
much of a chance at going to the playoffs. The Colts
offense should have their way with an average at best
Houston defense who are 23rd in the league in points
allowed at 24.1 per game. Look for Edgerrin James to
have his best game of the year while the Texans try to
take away the passing game as much as they can. I know
spotting any team 10 at home is a huge risk, expecially
against the worst defense in the league, but something
that is over looked is that the Colts defense ranks
only 17th in points allowed. I don't read into stats
much, but I believe this one speaks volumes and shows
that when it counts the Colts are making some key stops.
Jump on this now, could be as high as 13 before game
time.
Best Bet = Indianapolis vs Houston OVER 56.5
Here's a matchup of 2 defenses giving up a combined
740 yards per game. The Colts have scored 40 points or
more in their last 5 games and should have no problem
doing so again. Edgerrin James will rush for 150+ while
getting into the endzone twice. Payton will have his
3-4 touchdown passes, waiting till next Sunday to break
Marino's single season TD record. Vanderjagt will also
put 2 through the uprights to cushion things a bit as
well. That averages out to 44.5 points leaving the
Texan's to score 13 points against the next to last
ranked defense in the league. This is simple math
here, not rocket science, now go make some extra
Christmas money!!
Best Bet = Philly vs Washington OVER 37.5
Both teams are coming off great offensive performances
last week. That was by far the skins best offensive
performance this season, and should carry that momentum
a bit into this game. Philly looked unstopable against
Green Bay last week and will be up against a far better
defense this week. I don't believe they'll score in the
40's, but I don't see any defense keeping them from
putting up atleast 27 points with the way they've been
playing and having so many options to go to. Westbrook
is quietly having a great year catching the ball with
59 catches, 566 yards, and 6 TD's, along with his 4.6
per carry. He more than likely will have another big
game since the skins are blitz happy and McNabb
will have to get the ball off quickly to avoid being
sacked. Terrell Owens should have an average game with
Washington's secondary making him their main focus
which will open up the huge game for Westbrook.
Best Bet = New England vs Cininnati OVER 43
Carson Palmer and the Cincinnati Bengals are catching
fire in hopes of getting a wild card spot in the AFC.
Palmer passed for 382 yards against a stellar Baltimore
defense to get a 1 point victory @ Baltimore. With his
recieving core, theirs no dought they'll take to the
air again against a banged up secondary that the New
England Patriots possess. Corey Dillon will be jonsing
to put up big numbers against his former team who he
was unhappy with before coming to the Pats. I believe
he'll have a good game, 100 to 130 yards, but will be
used more as a deversion as the Patriots will catch
the Bengals defense off guard on a few 1st and 2nd down
pass plays and Tom Brady will have one of his better
statistical games. Each team should have no problem
scoring in the mid 20's in this one, with New England
more likely to score in the 30's.
Strong Play = Carolina -6.5
The Panther's are finally healthy and playing great
after a dreadfull 1-7 start to the season. This game is
pretty much their season and want nothing more to beat
up on a Rams team who are 2-4 in their last 6 games,
and seem to be on the decline. St. Lious QB Marc Bulger
will almost for certain be out for this one after
injuring his shoulder in last weeks win in against San
Francisco. That leaves 17 year vet Chris Chandler to
fill his role. The Rams have been hidious on the road
this year, posting a 2-4 record and their only wins
were against the 49er's, who are arguably the worst
team in the league. The other road victory came in an
overtime win against a injury plagued Seattle Seahawks
team. Carolina should dominate both sides of the
football in this one.
Strong Play = Philly -9
I guess the lines makers didn't watch Philly absolutely
dominate the Packers last week. Maybe their frame of
mind is now that Philly has a 2 game lead on home field
advantage with only 4 games to go, their not going to
go all out in this one. If you watched last weeks
game, most of the starters, including McNabb were still
in the game deep into the 4th quarter. Maybe coach
Reid let it up to the players to stay in or not, I
don't know and find it to big of a risk when your up by
that much. That showed me theres no chance of them
letting up a bit until they officially clinch home
field through out the playoffs. In their last meeting
on Nov, 21st, Philly cruised to a 28-6 victory, holding
Clinton Portis to only 37 rushing yards. Should be about
the same result with a bit more scoring this time.
Regular Play = Pittsburgh - 5.5
The Steeler's can clinch their division with a win
against the Jets on Sunday, and what better place to do
it at then in front of your home crowd. The Steeler's
have been dominating at home, beating New England and
the Eagles @ Heinz field. Should be a great low scoring
game with both teams relying on their running game.
Pittsburgh for the 3rd striaght week will be without
WR Plaxico Burress, which is huge because he opens up
the short game being such a deep threat, and also takes
the double team off of Hines Ward. Still though, they
should still have some success at moving the football,
and once again rely on their defense to win this one.
Regular Play = New England -10
I believe this will be a close game, but with New
England's experience and a composed quarterback in Tom
Brady, they'll pull away and have some key stops in the
2nd half to give them a 14-17 margin victory. Cinci
is hot though, and laying 10-11 points is alot for a
road team, but the Pats are just about the only team
in the league that I would feel comfortable spotting
that many points to a hot team at home. I got this game
at -10 when the line first came out, I see the line is
currently bouncing around at 10.5-11 I still like the
Pats -11 regardless, but would advise anyone thats
getting this one at 10.5-11 to buy the extra 1/2-1
point. This coulde easily be a 10 point victory and
I'd feel alot better without that extra 1-1/2 point
hanging around.
Overall Record = 19-5-1
Best Bet Record = 13-2
Strong Plays 2-2-1
Regular Plays = 4-1
Best Bet = Indianapolis -10
The Colts have won their last 5 games and can clinch
the AFC South division with a win over the Texan's who
have lost 4 out of their last 5 games and don't have
much of a chance at going to the playoffs. The Colts
offense should have their way with an average at best
Houston defense who are 23rd in the league in points
allowed at 24.1 per game. Look for Edgerrin James to
have his best game of the year while the Texans try to
take away the passing game as much as they can. I know
spotting any team 10 at home is a huge risk, expecially
against the worst defense in the league, but something
that is over looked is that the Colts defense ranks
only 17th in points allowed. I don't read into stats
much, but I believe this one speaks volumes and shows
that when it counts the Colts are making some key stops.
Jump on this now, could be as high as 13 before game
time.
Best Bet = Indianapolis vs Houston OVER 56.5
Here's a matchup of 2 defenses giving up a combined
740 yards per game. The Colts have scored 40 points or
more in their last 5 games and should have no problem
doing so again. Edgerrin James will rush for 150+ while
getting into the endzone twice. Payton will have his
3-4 touchdown passes, waiting till next Sunday to break
Marino's single season TD record. Vanderjagt will also
put 2 through the uprights to cushion things a bit as
well. That averages out to 44.5 points leaving the
Texan's to score 13 points against the next to last
ranked defense in the league. This is simple math
here, not rocket science, now go make some extra
Christmas money!!
Best Bet = Philly vs Washington OVER 37.5
Both teams are coming off great offensive performances
last week. That was by far the skins best offensive
performance this season, and should carry that momentum
a bit into this game. Philly looked unstopable against
Green Bay last week and will be up against a far better
defense this week. I don't believe they'll score in the
40's, but I don't see any defense keeping them from
putting up atleast 27 points with the way they've been
playing and having so many options to go to. Westbrook
is quietly having a great year catching the ball with
59 catches, 566 yards, and 6 TD's, along with his 4.6
per carry. He more than likely will have another big
game since the skins are blitz happy and McNabb
will have to get the ball off quickly to avoid being
sacked. Terrell Owens should have an average game with
Washington's secondary making him their main focus
which will open up the huge game for Westbrook.
Best Bet = New England vs Cininnati OVER 43
Carson Palmer and the Cincinnati Bengals are catching
fire in hopes of getting a wild card spot in the AFC.
Palmer passed for 382 yards against a stellar Baltimore
defense to get a 1 point victory @ Baltimore. With his
recieving core, theirs no dought they'll take to the
air again against a banged up secondary that the New
England Patriots possess. Corey Dillon will be jonsing
to put up big numbers against his former team who he
was unhappy with before coming to the Pats. I believe
he'll have a good game, 100 to 130 yards, but will be
used more as a deversion as the Patriots will catch
the Bengals defense off guard on a few 1st and 2nd down
pass plays and Tom Brady will have one of his better
statistical games. Each team should have no problem
scoring in the mid 20's in this one, with New England
more likely to score in the 30's.
Strong Play = Carolina -6.5
The Panther's are finally healthy and playing great
after a dreadfull 1-7 start to the season. This game is
pretty much their season and want nothing more to beat
up on a Rams team who are 2-4 in their last 6 games,
and seem to be on the decline. St. Lious QB Marc Bulger
will almost for certain be out for this one after
injuring his shoulder in last weeks win in against San
Francisco. That leaves 17 year vet Chris Chandler to
fill his role. The Rams have been hidious on the road
this year, posting a 2-4 record and their only wins
were against the 49er's, who are arguably the worst
team in the league. The other road victory came in an
overtime win against a injury plagued Seattle Seahawks
team. Carolina should dominate both sides of the
football in this one.
Strong Play = Philly -9
I guess the lines makers didn't watch Philly absolutely
dominate the Packers last week. Maybe their frame of
mind is now that Philly has a 2 game lead on home field
advantage with only 4 games to go, their not going to
go all out in this one. If you watched last weeks
game, most of the starters, including McNabb were still
in the game deep into the 4th quarter. Maybe coach
Reid let it up to the players to stay in or not, I
don't know and find it to big of a risk when your up by
that much. That showed me theres no chance of them
letting up a bit until they officially clinch home
field through out the playoffs. In their last meeting
on Nov, 21st, Philly cruised to a 28-6 victory, holding
Clinton Portis to only 37 rushing yards. Should be about
the same result with a bit more scoring this time.
Regular Play = Pittsburgh - 5.5
The Steeler's can clinch their division with a win
against the Jets on Sunday, and what better place to do
it at then in front of your home crowd. The Steeler's
have been dominating at home, beating New England and
the Eagles @ Heinz field. Should be a great low scoring
game with both teams relying on their running game.
Pittsburgh for the 3rd striaght week will be without
WR Plaxico Burress, which is huge because he opens up
the short game being such a deep threat, and also takes
the double team off of Hines Ward. Still though, they
should still have some success at moving the football,
and once again rely on their defense to win this one.
Regular Play = New England -10
I believe this will be a close game, but with New
England's experience and a composed quarterback in Tom
Brady, they'll pull away and have some key stops in the
2nd half to give them a 14-17 margin victory. Cinci
is hot though, and laying 10-11 points is alot for a
road team, but the Pats are just about the only team
in the league that I would feel comfortable spotting
that many points to a hot team at home. I got this game
at -10 when the line first came out, I see the line is
currently bouncing around at 10.5-11 I still like the
Pats -11 regardless, but would advise anyone thats
getting this one at 10.5-11 to buy the extra 1/2-1
point. This coulde easily be a 10 point victory and
I'd feel alot better without that extra 1-1/2 point
hanging around.
