NFL Week 12

[sds23]

nice week once again sds! When did you start doing props???

Thanks redus. I will play the occasional prop here and there when I see something that jumps out at me during the course of my mormal due dilligence. It usually tends to be RBs and QBs that I play. And I tend to do better with the RBs than the QBs it seems.

Anyway....the more important topic is your amazing performance in the Capping Contest. 5-points for a perfect 4~0 SWEEP !! WGT !!

 

[sds23]

Thanks, bud. Good luck to you and Primoz tonight, and maybe I'll jump back into the pool tomorrow with your Pack.

Sounds great AJ. Depending on my free time, I'd love to whip together a quick write-up for the MNF game. Might be overkill for a 1* play, but might be necessary if I decide to increase that play. I just need to be careful with GB. Need to stop myself to confirm and deny how objective I am really being when it comes to playing GB.

 

[sds23]

Pending:

2* IND +3 125 (BJ)
1* GB +3 130 (BJ)

NFL Week 12

3* NE +1 105 (BJ) WINNER
2* ATL -1 100 (Dog) WINNER
2* SF +10.5 120 (Dog) LOSER
2* OAK +10 120 (Dog) WINNER
2* TEN -5.5 105 (Dog) LOSER
2* MIN OV 41 115 (Dog) WINNER
2* IND +3 125 (BJ) WINNER
1* Turner OV 84.5 120 (Dog) WINNER



Week 12 Record: 6~2........+7.50 units

Season Record: 75~53......+39.75 units



Pending:

1* GB +3 130 (BJ)
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[freepicks+]

Paper time!

:money8:

ope:keep it up sds23! nice work.

 

[sds23]

Paper time!

:money8:

ope:keep it up sds23! nice work.

Thanks FP. I hope you all of your action went fantastically well for you and that you enjoyed todays' slate of entertaining games!

 

[METFAN]

Glad we split the difference..another great week .i like the pacjk tomorrow as well and i love that over..any opinion on that?

I'm thinking 1 uit packers 2 uits over? Let me know

 

[Primož]

Glad we split the difference..another great week .i like the pacjk tomorrow as well and i love that over..any opinion on that?

I'm thinking 1 uit packers 2 uits over? Let me know

• Over is 8-1-1 in GB last 10 road games.
• GB are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
• GB are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.

• Over is 10-1-1 in NO last 12 games on field turf.
• Over is 8-1-1 in NO last 10 home games.
• Over is 11-3-1 in NO last 15 games overall.

 

[freepicks+]

Thanks FP. I hope you all of your action went fantastically well for you and that you enjoyed todays' slate of entertaining games!

thanks to you...not bad sir.

:cripwalk:

GB/Over is the lean for tomorrow

GL dawg

 

[freepicks+]

• Over is 8-1-1 in GB last 10 road games.
• GB are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
• GB are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.

• Over is 10-1-1 in NO last 12 games on field turf.
• Over is 8-1-1 in NO last 10 home games.
• Over is 11-3-1 in NO last 15 games overall.

Thanks for the info Primoz. :toast:
The over/under opened at 53.5 or 53 at most books. dropped to 51 on matchbook and my local...what gives? :think2:

GL tomorrow

FP

 

[Primož]

Thanks for the info Primoz. :toast:
The over/under opened at 53.5 or 53 at most books. dropped to 51 on matchbook and my local...what gives? :think2:

GL tomorrow

FP

No problem:toast:

Hey SDS what's your record for MNF, i know its good

 

[jgdwvu11]

You going to hedge the gb game for the teaser?

 

[ajreeb]

NFL Week 12


GB Note: I really do honestly like GB in the MNF game, but there is something fishy about this line. It opened at -2.5 and has not budged despite what appears to be a lot of public betting. (Perhaps someone with access to reliable public info can confirm or deny that last sentence.) Anyway, now BoDog and BetJam are hanging a +3 at -130 juice. That's usually a really bad sign, with or without my suspicions about the public betting on this contest. I was going to make this a 2*, maybe even a 3* play based upon my capping until I looked at the numbers and prices being offered. Stay tuned I guess. And thank you to anyone with additional (reliable) GB public betting info.

Nice win last night with Indy!:toast:
As far as GB goes tonight, looks like there's been some significant line movement to counter the flood of GB bets.

The Spread with info from the usually reliable sportsinsights.com
http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

Seems to be similar to what we saw yesterday with NE/MIA. MIA started the week at -2 but the public pounded NE and ended up at pick'em or +1 at some books.

 

[sds23]

Glad we split the difference..another great week .i like the pacjk tomorrow as well and i love that over..any opinion on that?

I'm thinking 1 uit packers 2 uits over? Let me know

RE: The Over

Possibly. But I want to check with my sources and see if by chance GB will be emphasizing the run tonight (in an effrot to play keep away from the NO offense), which might possibly prevent the score from getting as high as we may think.

I am at work right now, but am hoping to get home a bit earlier than normal this evening and to spend some time researching and inquiring about tonight's contest.

 

[sds23]

• Over is 8-1-1 in GB last 10 road games.
• GB are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
• GB are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.

• Over is 10-1-1 in NO last 12 games on field turf.
• Over is 8-1-1 in NO last 10 home games.
• Over is 11-3-1 in NO last 15 games overall.

Thanks. Great stuff Primoz!

 

[sds23]

thanks to you...not bad sir.

:cripwalk:

That's what I like to hear! Glad you had a great day my friend!

 

[sds23]

Hey SDS what's your record for MNF, i know its good

I'd have to go back and count the wins for each week but I think I am 14~1~1 on MNF games so far this season. I no for sure that I only have one loss and that I have one tie. As far as the number of wins, it is probably about 13, 14 or maybe even 15 wins to far. So my best guess is that I am something like 13~1~1 or 14~1~1 on MNF for the season.

But that has to start going the opposite way sooner or later I would think. We'll see!

 

[sds23]

You going to hedge the gb game for the teaser?

Hello jdg ~

I am not sure why I would hedge anything this evening. I had a great weekend and this remaining play is rated only as a small 1* play so far. I am not a big fan of playing teasers, parlays or exotics. Pretty much a straight side and totals player with the occasional prop play here and there.

BOL tonight!

 

[sds23]

Nice win last night with Indy!:toast:
As far as GB goes tonight, looks like there's been some significant line movement to counter the flood of GB bets.

The Spread with info from the usually reliable sportsinsights.com
http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

Seems to be similar to what we saw yesterday with NE/MIA. MIA started the week at -2 but the public pounded NE and ended up at pick'em or +1 at some books.

Thanks AJ. Great stuff. I will hopefully get from work thsi evening a bit earlier than normal and will have time to sort through all of this.

Talk to you later this evening buddy!

 

[sds23]

MNF Writeup

The Packers had a fantastic week of practice. They made the most of the extra long week by having four solid days of practice in a row (which is rare). The total length of each practice was scaled back in time a little bit to avoid burnout. But both the coaches and players agreed the extra day was a major benefit and reported high levels of confidence with the game plan as a result.

Brandon Jackson had a great week of practice and despite Ryan Grant’s annual second half of the season explosion, Jackson could see a little bit more duty than his normal change of pace work load.
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The players are well aware of the magnitude of tonight’s game. They were all checking their phones immediately after arriving in New Orleans to see how their divisional foes had fared in their Sunday matchups. No rest for the wicked since both Chicago and Minnesota won their respective games and now Green Bay must keep pace.<o></o>
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While the Packers like to move the chains via the short pass and run-after-the-catch, the Saints like to break the chains with the long ball. One would assume that this game will instantly be a passing duel between Rodgers and Brees that lasts the entire game. But unless the Packers get behind in this game, you can expect to see them try and stay with a balanced attack on offense.<o></o>
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Last weekend Green Bay faced Chicago’s 4th ranked run defense ~ the same defense who had held the Titans to 20 yards rushing the week before ~ and the Packers had their most dominating run-game performance to date totaling 200 yards on 38 carries (5.3 ypc). That performance followed up a two week stretch where Ryan Grant had averaged 4.5 ypc the two previous week against the Titans and the Vikings, two other very formidable run defenses.<o></o>
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Just like last year, the Packers run game seems to mysteriously show up at about the mid-point of the season. And these last three games suggest it is happening again and can be relied upon to be a permanent part of their attack.<o></o>
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As far as the duel at quarterback, tonight’s match up features two of the league's hottest quarterbacks, as both Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers rank in the NFL's top 5 in passer rating. Brees is on pace to break Dan Marino’s single season passing yards record, but he may see his stats take a bit of downward turn this evening.<o></o>
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Opposing signal callers have a 59.5 passer rating against Green Bay this season, the lowest rating in the NFL. It ranks just ahead of Tennessee's defense, which ranks No. 2 with an opposing QB rating of 60.9. Green Bay's defense has been able to smother potential receivers, allowing opposing signal callers to complete just 51.5% of their passes. That is the lowest opponent completion percentage in the league, slightly ahead of the Baltimore defense (53.7%) that is ranked 2nd in the NFL.<o></o>
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In addition to holding opposing passers to the lowest quarterback rating and completion percentage, Green Bay has also surrendered the fewest gross passing yards (1,865). Not only has their pass defense been stellar in rating and yards allowed, but they are on a record pace for turnovers as well. The Packers have 533 return yards on their 16 interceptions this season. That total already ranks third in team history since the 1960 AFL-NFL merger. <o></o>
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The atmosphere will be electric for this evening game, especially with the Saints playing in their first home game in six week. But Packer head coach Mike McCarthey is no stranger to New Orleans and will prepare the team for what is in store. McCarthy spent five seasons (2000-04) with the Saints as offensive coordinator, guiding the club to the most prolific offensive era in the team's four decades. The team set 10 offensive team records and 25 individual marks with McCarthy as its play caller. Monday night marks his first game in the city since leaving in 2004. So this trip has special meaning for Mike as well. And not surprisingly, McCarthy's staff in Green Bay has strong ties to the Saints organization. Eight assistant coaches have spent time in New Orleans either as a coach or player.<o></o>
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The Packers lost their first two road games of the month by a combined four points. Despite the small losing streak, they have still won 10 of their last 15 away from home. Both last season and this season the Packers have proven to be extremely dangerous on the road. Tonight will test them once again in an extremely hostile environment, but I think that the Packers’ overall balance on offense and strength-versus-strength matchup between their pass defense and the Saints pass offense will be the difference in this game.

 

[sds23]

Brandon Jackson had a great week of practice and despite Ryan Grant’s annual second half of the season explosion, Jackson could see a little bit more duty than his normal change of pace work load.
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Adding a player prop:

2* Brandon Jackson Over 31.5 total yards rushing and receiving -130