Home dogs seem to be turning the corner, but this one is the least settling play for me this week.
While others mention the substandard trends in relation to thier ATS record as a home dog, many of those games go back to the Pete Carrol days. What we have now is different. While HOustons defense is at times admirable, and this game exemplifies the quintessential trap game for a superior team, other factors have me liking the road fav this week.
1. While the PAts keep getting healthier, the Texans keep getting more banged up. THe PAts are just now getting the likes of Ted Johnson, and Ted Washington (thier best run-stoppers), back at full strength, and Ty LAw is playing at his best despite an ankle injury. Meanwhile the Texans are missing a starting QB, and CB, and may be due for a letdown after a road win with Banks at the helm.
2. Can Tony Banks lead his team to victory over the hottest team in the NFL,(6 straight wins) with the most complex defensive schemes? Perhaps...but I doubt it.
3. With Indy and Tenn still winning Bellicheck should have his team focused on winning to keep thier bye chances in tact.