Enough is enough. After another huge upset in Week 9 - the
Jets knocking off the
Bills - we're deploying the "scared money don't make money" tactic going forward. Given the round-robin underdog moneyline parlay (RR MLP) is just one single bet - broken up into 11 pieces - there's no reason why we shouldn't be willing to fire on big home underdogs like the Jets. While we only saw one of our five underdogs win last week, what's far more irritating than the
Bears losing a close one, or the
Panthers losing big, is when an opportunity is missed on a big upset - or even a close call like the
Titans game.
How it works
We parlay five underdogs we like against the spread in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin. We'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, as they did for us in Week 1 last season, you'll be diving into a silo of gold doubloons like a young Scrooge McDuck.
Who to play
Panthers +135
We're getting the RR MLP out on the streets early because we're back on a Thursday nighter with hopes of setting up Sunday. Had the Panthers-
Falcons game from two weeks ago been a prime-time game, it would have been all-time memorable. Atlanta closed as a four-point home favorite that Sunday afternoon and didn't cover a true toss-up game.
What's changed since then? The Panthers were blown out in Cincinnati - something that recently happened to the Falcons as well. Atlanta pushed a +3 point spread with the
Chargers, which suggests the market has a pretty good handle on their rating. The X-factor is the Panthers, who seem to have a wide range of performances. We're betting on the version that beat the
Bucs and should have beaten these same Falcons, with the understanding that the version that got crushed in Cincinnati could show up too ... but so could that version of Atlanta.
Vikings +190
We're trending toward news of
Josh Allen being out of, at least, Sunday's game. The point spread has drifted down through a full touchdown, and the moneyline has come with it. If Allen is announced out, where does Buffalo's
rating go? The market has them rated in the mid-80s out of 100 with a healthy Allen. With
Case Keenum under center, who are the Bills? Are they still better than the
Eagles and
Chiefs? What about the
49ers,
Cowboys, or
Ravens? What about the
Vikings?
If the Keenum-led Bills have a rating similar to Minnesota then they're still the favorite Sunday, but not to the level they are right now. Even if Allen plays, with a sore elbow, I'd still take a flyer on the Vikings who have found ways to win this season.
Texans +230
The
Giants are off their bye week, but a vacation week cost them some depth in their secondary, as
Xavier McKinney injured his hand in an
ATV accident. Meanwhile, the
Texans have had a fair amount of rest after showing well against the undefeated Eagles last Thursday.
Dameon Pierce can take advantage of the Giants' run defense, which has allowed 5.5 yards per carry (second-worst in the NFL). His hard running means things should open up for
Davis Mills against a thin secondary.
The Giants will be able to do the same things against the Texans, but that's largely the point. This is a more even matchup than most are willing to admit, and a +230 moneyline price is worth including here.
Packers +190
How are the
Packers five-point underdogs at home to the Cowboys? A small increase to Dallas' rating off of its bye is fine. A downgrade to the Packers with the season-ending injury to
Rashan Gary is definitely in order. However, Green Bay closed as a four-point favorite at Detroit last week and spent much of the game driving into the red zone. The Packers often flunked the test at the goal line, but that's hard to predict week-to-week. This point spread suggests a rating plummet for the Packers, and while that might make sense to us, moves this drastic tend to create value.
Chargers +260
Conceptually, coming off a bye week, the 49ers should be getting healthier and thus scarier for the rest of the NFL. However, installing them as seven-point favorites is excessive.
Jimmy Garoppolo is still capable of troublesome ball security, and half of their wins have come against the historically plus-matchup over the
Rams.
Justin Herbert as a big underdog is far more appealing than asking the
Chargers to cover a number this size against anyone.
Here's how the odds look this week.
| PARLAY | ODDS (APPROX.) |
|---|
| CAR+HOU+MIN | +2200 |
| CAR+HOU+GB | +2200 |
| CAR+HOU+LAC | +2600 |
| CAR+MIN+GB | +1900 |
| CAR+MIN+LAC | +2300 |
| CAR+GB+LAC | +2300 |
| HOU+MIN+GB | +2700 |
| HOU+MIN+LAC | +3300 |
| HOU+GB+LAC | +3200 |
| MIN+GB+LAC | +2900 |
| CAR+HOU+MIN+GB+LAC | +23000 |
Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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