Call me foolish but count me as someone who thought the Raiders (-2) might be good with the score 17-0 against the Jaguars. But once a choker always a choker, as Las Vegas coughed up its third 17-point lead of the season, and with that, a winning week becomes a losing week. That's evidence of the razor-thin line in betting the NFL.
BET TYPELAST WEEKSEASON (UNITS)
ATS trio1-1-1 (-0.1)13-11-3 (+0.9)
ML upset-15-4 (+5.6)
Totals13-6 (-3.6)
Teasers-1.23-6 (-4.2)
TOTAL-1.3-1.3
Best bets ATS
Steelers +1.5
The Steelers are optimistic that T.J. Watt will be back Sunday, and if that's the case, this line is just incorrect. That's how much Watt means to Pittsburgh's defense. Even if the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year doesn't return, another massive factor in Pittsburgh's season has been the list of its opponents. Depending on how you measure it, the Steelers have played the toughest slate so far this season.
Coming out of their bye week, the Steelers should have a better grip on what plays Kenny Pickett should be running since their transition to him as the quarterback of the future was blurred for two weeks, then included a prime-time game in Miami and a trip to Philadelphia. Back home, and getting the Saints on a short week after New Orleans got physically overwhelmed Monday, should put Pittsburgh in a position to have its best performance of the season.
Broncos +3 (-115)
Speaking of bye weeks, the Broncos might have stumbled into something in London. Their offense turned efficient after opting to go up-tempo against the Jaguars, so Denver may opt to run its offense at a quicker pace. Normally, it shouldn't be that simple, but whether it's Ryan Tannehill or Malik Willis under center for the Titans, Tennessee's 26th-best offense in yards per play shouldn't be able to make Denver pay for any quick drives.
A rested Broncos defense can hold up against Derrick Henry and the Titans' run game. This should look like the Titans' matchup with the Colts where Tennessee couldn't score an offensive touchdown but without the pick-6 from the quarterback heading to the bench.
Dolphins -3 (-120)
It wouldn't be the first time, but I might be on the wrong side of history in liking the Dolphins here, given that the line has come down toward a field goal.
The last we saw the Browns, they were 3.5-point home underdogs to the Bengals, and now they're the same price on the road in Miami. In their three road games, Cleveland has faced passing offenses run by Baker Mayfield, Marcus Mariota, and the Ravens in the rain. The Dolphins have yet to lose a game that Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished, so their metrics are skewed by the time he missed.
The Browns' offense will have its usual success rushing, but we'll bet against its ability to keep up with the Dolphins, and maybe Bradley Chubb makes as much of an impact defensively for Miami as his cousin Nick does for Cleveland.
Moneyline upset of the week
Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.
Texans +190
This moneyline has come down since its opening because the market realized that despite their record, the Giants can't be near -300 against anybody. That said, we'll still pick the Texans to pull off an upset in New York at the shorter number. The Giants were flying high heading into their bye, feeling good even after a loss in Seattle. However, they have the same holes defensively as Houston, with both averaging 5.5 opponent yards per carry.
New York's secondary has thinned out due to injury, while the Texans' gets better by the week with rookies Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley gaining more experience. Elsewhere on the injury report, Evan Neal won't be on the Giants' offensive line, whereas Maliek Collins may return for Houston's D-line.
Best total bet
Cardinals / Rams under 40.5 points
Even if Matthew Stafford (unlikely) and Kyler Murray (expected) play, these offenses are both sneaky awful with the only plus-option being a throw to a star receiver. The problem for the Rams is that the Cardinals are one of the few teams to defend Cooper Kupp well - 22 receptions for 231 yards in their last four meetings. The problem for DeAndre Hopkins is the general presence of Jalen Ramsey; Hopkins had just nine catches on 20 targets in two games last season. With both top weapons less likely to be the difference-maker, taking the under is the best bet in a game where the spread is in flux.
Best 6-point teaser
Broncos +9 / Steelers +7.5
We don't need to get too deep into the weeds here since it's a rare instance when two of our favorite spread bets also qualify as a valuable teaser, but we'll dare either Willis or Tannehill, and Andy Dalton in Pittsburgh, to beat us by two scores against quality defenses in tough turnaround spots.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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