NFL Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends – Week 16

[carlitosway]

Today’s NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 16. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

AJ’s Angles​

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, road teams scoring fewer than 19 PPG and playing as dogs of +13 points or fewer are just 32-118 SU and 55-92 ATS (37.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY GIANTS (+8.5 at ATL), CLEVELAND (+7.5 at CIN), TENNESSEE (+3.5 at IND), JACKSONVILLE (+1 at LVR)
Cincinnati: 11-0 ATS rematch streak vs. Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs. CLE)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 59-14 SU and 48-23-2 ATS (67.6%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3 vs. HOU)
New Orleans Under in 18 of the last 23 on the road primetime games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NO-GB (o/u at 42.5)
NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 16-15 SU but 8-22-1 ATS (26.7%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5 vs. TEN)
PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on 30-20 SU and 35-13 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-6 at BAL)
Under the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of DEN-LAC series at Chargers
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in DEN-LAC (o/u at 41.5)
DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 9-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-6.5 at CHI)
Retread coaches aren’t as proficient at covering spreads when at home in the last decade – 87–120-1 ATS (42%)
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): LA CHARGERS, ATLANTA, WASHINGTON
#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections: MIAMI -1 vs. SF (+4.3 difference)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data​

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here are the systems with updated language and records we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. The record for this year has been 34-28 AYS, including 21-9 ATS backing road teams. It’s hard to see this one continuing. We will continue to recommend that if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, INDIANAPOLIS, LA RAMS, BUFFALO, JACKSONVILLE, TAMPA BAY, GREEN BAY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 91-117 ATS (43.8%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors. So far in 2024, this is 20-17, but the bulk of the season’s 96 divisional games are still yet to come.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS, BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, INDIANAPOLIS, BUFFALO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 96-114 ATS (45.7%), but 20-15 ATS in 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER, PITTSBURGH, CINCINNATI, DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, INDIANAPOLIS, BUFFALO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups have actually been quite sharp, as this majority group is 60-50 ATS (54.5%), performing at nearly the exact same level in each season. This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 108-123 ATS (46.7%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog. However, this system is 28-18 ATS for 2024, a major factor as to why bettors are doing well overall. I suspect if (or when) this turns, DK will regain the advantage.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, ARIZONA, PHILADELPHIA, LA RAMS, MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DENVER, PITTSBURGH, JACKSONVILLE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 78-95 ATS (45.1%) and 76-94 ATS (44.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, TAMPA BAY, GREEN BAY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022-24 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 69-56 ATS (55.2%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CHARGERS, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE
The following are some new money line systems we will be employing going forward…
NFL DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle has backed a team in a money line wager but not real strongly (in the 40%-60%) range, they have really struggled in 2024, going 16-26 for -13.71 units of loss, an ROI of -32.6%. It seems that conviction is an important thing when majority groups get together. If it seems as if the DK betting public might be “guessing” as to who wins, fade it.
System Match (FADE): DENVER ML
NFL DK Betting Splits system #10: Super majority handle bettors of more than 75% have also struggled in games when backing bigger favorites on money lines. In games with point spreads of -4.5 or higher (approx. -225 or more ML), this super majority group has gone just 23-13 but for -15.53 units of loss, an ROI of -43.1% in 2024. Public bettors tend to look at these games as more “automatic” wagers, and as you can tell, they aren’t.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI ML, DETROIT ML, ARIZONA ML, ATLANTA ML, BUFFALO ML, GREEN BAY ML
NFL DK Betting Splits system #11: Majority number of bets groups have been at their best in 2024 on money lines in the Sunday afternoon games when backing small favorites (4 points or less, and approximately -220 or less). These groups boast an impressive 33-10 record for +18.93 units of profit and an ROI of +44%! These include the games in the 1:00 p.m. ET-4:30 p.m. ET starting slots, and with more choices at these times, bettors are faring well.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, INDIANAPOLIS ML, LA RAMS ML, MINNESOTA ML
These next systems cover totals…
NFL DK Betting Splits system #12: Since 2022, the average NFL total has been right around 44 or a tic higher. Since mid-2023, the majority handle bettors have been very sharp in dealing with totals at or below that number (44 or less). In fact, since November 2023, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5%)! It’s in the higher totaled games that they typically fare worse.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DEN-LAC, NYG-ATL, TEN-IND, NO-GB
UNDER – HOU-KC, MIN-SEA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #13: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last two seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 70-52 ATS (57.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 54-39 (58.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-KC, PIT-BAL, DET-CHI, PHI-WAS, MIN-SEA, SF-MIA, TB-DAL
NFL DK Betting Splits system #14: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for a super majority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022-24 with a record of 121-153 (44.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-LAC, NYG-ATL, TEN-IND, NE-BUF, NO-GB
NFL DK Betting Splits system #15: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 50-74 (40.3%) over the past two-plus seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-LAC, NYG-ATL, TEN-IND, NO-GB

Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends​

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(123) DENVER at (124) LA CHARGERS
* DENVER is 17-5 Under the total when coming off a double-digit victory since 2017
* DENVER is 96-65 Under the total (59.6%) since 2015
Trends Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42)
* LA CHARGERS are 12-1 Under the total as a divisional home favorite since 2018
* LA CHARGERS’s Jim Harbaugh is on 10-1 Under the total surge vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG
* LA CHARGERS are 35-50-1 ATS (41.2%) at home since 2014
* LA CHARGERS’ Justin Herbert is 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2021
* LA CHARGERS’s Jim Harbaugh owns a solid 28-8 SU and 25-9 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011 (*if they fall into this line range)
Trends Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42), also consider LA CHARGERS (-2.5 vs. LAC)
(103) HOUSTON at (104) KANSAS CITY
* HOUSTON is on 16-53 SU and 25-43 ATS slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 11-3 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 13-5 Under the total in the last 18 games with his team coming off a win
Trends Match: FADE HOUSTON (+3 at KC), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 41.5)
* KANSAS CITY is 73-38 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 41.5)
(105) PITTSBURGH at (106) BALTIMORE
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on 30-20 SU and 35-13 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is on a 3-8 SU and 1-10 ATS skid with his team on short rest (<7 days)
* PITTSBURGH is 99-68 Under the total (59.3%) since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of PITTSBURGH (+6 at BAL), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 45)
* BALTIMORE is 14-12 SU and 19-6 ATS vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7% since 2020
* BALTIMORE is 25-13 SU but 12-25 ATS as a divisional home favorite since 2010
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 27-9 SU and 22-13 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 24-11 SU but 12-22 ATS as a single-digit home favorite since 2018
Trends Match: 2 PLAYs, 2 FADEs of BALTIMORE (-6 vs. PIT)
(101) CLEVELAND at (102) CINCINNATI
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 15-7 Under the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is on a 9-4 SU and ATS run when coming off an outright home loss
* CLEVELAND is 21-37 ATS (36.2%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of CLEVELAND (+7.5 at CIN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 47)
* CINCINNATI is 70-56 SU and 77-49 ATS when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2012
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor boasts a 19-5 SU and 17-5 ATS record as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2022 (*if they fall into this line range)
Trends Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs. CLE)
(107) DETROIT at (108) CHICAGO
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is 13-6 Under the total in games after allowing 30+ points since 2015
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 6-12 SU and 7-11 ATS skid vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33%
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 9-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 14-5 SU and 14-4-1 ATS in divisional games since 2021
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of DETROIT (-6.5 at CHI), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 48)
* CHICAGO is 8-23 SU and 10-21 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019
* CHICAGO is 21-34-1 ATS (38.2%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 26-41-1 ATS (37%) as an underdog since 2019
Trends Match: FADE CHICAGO (+6.5 vs. DET)
(109) ARIZONA at (110) CAROLINA
* ARIZONA is 40-18 SU and 37-21 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2012
* ARIZONA is 29-21 ATS (58%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is 12-1 SU and ATS in last 13 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is just 3-9 SU and ATS in his last 11 starts as a favorite
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is 8-1 Over the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2022
Trends Match: 3 PLAYS, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (-4.5 at CAR), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 47)
* CAROLINA is 17-29 ATS (37%) at home since 2019
* CAROLINA is 19-33 ATS (36.5%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
* CAROLINA’s Bryce Young is 4-20 SU and 10-13 ATS in the last 23 starts as an underdog
* CAROLINA’s Bryce Young is on 7-1 Under the total run with his team coming off a double-digit loss
Trends Match: FADE CAROLINA (+4.5 vs. ARI), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 47)
(111) NEW ENGLAND at (112) BUFFALO
* NEW ENGLAND is 14-25-2 ATS (35.9%) as an underdog since 2021
Trend Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+14 at BUF)
* BUFFALO’s Sean McDermott is 7-1 SU but 1-7 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2022
Trend Match: FADE BUFFALO ATS (-14 vs. NE)
(113) PHILADELPHIA at (114) WASHINGTON
* PHILADELPHIA is 18-6 Over the total when coming off a home win since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 19-8 Under the total in his last 27 road games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 45.5)
* WASHINGTON is 22-11-1 ATS (66.7%) when coming off a SU win since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 15-30 ATS (33.3%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of WASHINGTON (+3.5 vs. PHI)
(115) NY GIANTS at (116) ATLANTA
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 17-7 Under the total surge as a single-digit underdog
* NY GIANTS are 53-27 Under the total (66.3%) since 2020
Trends Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42)
* ATLANTA is 57-46 SU but 37-66 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012
* ATLANTA is 19-5 Under the total on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
* ATLANTA is 19-35 ATS (35.2%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA’s Raheem Morris is on 9-6 Over the total surge vs. teams with a losing record
Trends Match: FADE ATLANTA (-8.5 vs NYG), also 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42)
(117) TENNESSEE at (118) INDIANAPOLIS
* TENNESSEE is 21-11 SU and 21-10 ATS when coming off a home loss since 2015
* TENNESSEE is on 7-25 SU and 7-24-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TENNESSEE (+3.5 at IND)
* INDIANAPOLIS is 29-15 SU and 31-11 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss since 2011
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Shane Steichen is on 11-2 SU and ATS run vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
Trend Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5 vs. TEN)
(119) LA RAMS at (120) NY JETS
* LA RAMS are on 20-7 SU and 22-5 ATS December run since 2018
* LA RAMS’s Sean McVay is 6-5 SU but 1-9 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA RAMS (-3.5 at NYJ)
* NY JETS are 11-26 ATS (29.7%) when coming off SU win since 2017
* NY JETS are 12-29 ATS (29.3%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 12-4 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS (75%) as a home underdog (the average line was +2.4, Team average PF: 26.7)
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of NY JETS (+3.5 vs. LAR), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46)
(121) MINNESOTA at (122) SEATTLE
* MINNESOTA’s Kevin O’Connell is 11-5 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022
* MINNESOTA’s Sam Darnold is 25-10 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5)
* SEATTLE is 19-9 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2011
* SEATTLE is 35-23 ATS (60.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* SEATTLE is 37-26 ATS (58.7%) as an underdog since 2016
* SEATTLE’s Geno Smith is 7-8 SU but 10-5 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2013 (*if he plays this week)
Trends Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+3 vs MIN), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 43.5)
(125) SAN FRANCISCO at (126) MIAMI
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 25-13 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017
* SAN FRANCISCO is 19-27 ATS (41.3%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
Trends Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+1 at MIA), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 44.5)
* MIAMI is on 31-16 SU and 30-16 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* MIAMI is 59-31 ATS (65.6%) at home since 2014
* MIAMI is 28-18 ATS (60.9%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
Trends Match: PLAY MIAMI (-1 vs. SF)
(127) JACKSONVILLE at (128) LAS VEGAS
* JACKSONVILLE’s Doug Pederson is 39-24 Over the total in road games since 2016
* JACKSONVILLE’s Mac Jones is 1-15 SU and 2-14 ATS (12.5%) as an underdog of 7-points or less (the average line was +3.1, Team average PF: 16.7)
Trends Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+1 at LVR), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 40)
* LAS VEGAS is 9-17 SU and 6-20 ATS vs. poor teams with point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2018
* LAS VEGAS is 34-48 ATS (41.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
Trends Match: FADE LAS VEGAS (-1 vs JAX)
(129) TAMPA BAY at (130) DALLAS
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is on 13-3 Under the total run as a road favorite
* TAMPA BAY is 35-47 ATS (42.7%) as a favorite since 2014
Trends Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-4 at DAL), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 48.5)
* DALLAS’s Mike McCarthy is just 6-9 SU and 3-12 ATS in the last 15 games when coming off a double-digit win
* DALLAS’s Mike McCarthy is just 14-31-1 SU and 15-31 ATS vs. teams with a winning record since 2017
Trends Match: FADE DALLAS (+4 vs. TB)
(131) NEW ORLEANS at (132) GREEN BAY
* NEW ORLEANS is on a 15-1 Under the total run when playing with extra rest (>7 days)
* NEW ORLEANS is 35-22 ATS (61.4%) in road/neutral games since 2018
Trends Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+14 at GB), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42.5)
* GREEN BAY is 90-19 SU and 69-38 ATS as a home favorite since 2009
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 12-4 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
Trends Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-14 vs. NO), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 42.5)

 

[carlitosway]

NFL Late-Season Betting Systems​

NFL Late Regular Season System #1
These aren’t exactly “systems,” but these are the best line scenario records I was able to uncover from recent December/January regular season games:
· Double-digit home favorites are 8-4 SU but 1-11 ATS (8.3%) in the last 12 tries
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): BUFFALO (-14 vs. NE), GREEN BAY (-14 vs NO)
· Double-digit home favorites are on 39-12 SU but 19-31-1 ATS (38%) skid versus same conference opponents
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): BUFFALO (-14 vs NE), GREEN BAY (-14 vs NO)
· Road favorites 3 points or more are 140-119 ATS (54.1%) since 2014
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, ARIZONA, PHILADELPHIA, LA RAMS, MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY
NFL Late Regular Season System #2
Since 2015, NFL teams with winning percentages of 83% or higher are just 44-36 SU and 26-53-1 ATS (32.9%) in December/January regular season games, including 9-25-1 ATS vs. divisional opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): KANSAS CITY (-3 vs HOU), DETROIT (-6.5 at CHI), PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 at WAS), MINNESOTA (-3.5 at SEA)
NFL Late Regular Season System #3
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2012, home teams with at least four more wins than their opponent are 141-32 SU and 97-74 ATS (56.7%), including 115-17 SU and 76-55 ATS when favored by 6-points or more.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-8.5 vs. NYG), BUFFALO (-14 vs. NE), GREEN BAY (-14 vs. NO)
NFL Late Regular Season System #4
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, road teams scoring fewer than 19 PPG and playing as dogs of +13 points or fewer are just 32-118 SU and 55-92 ATS (37.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY GIANTS (+8.5 at ATL), CLEVELAND (+7.5 at CIN), TENNESSEE (+3.5 at IND), JACKSONVILLE (+1 at LVR)
NFL Late Regular Season System #5
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2012, road underdogs allowing 24.0 PPG or more are just 36-152 SU and 82-102 ATS (44.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+7.5 at CIN), TENNESSEE (+3.5 at IND), JACKSONVILLE (+1 at LVR), NEW ENGLAND (+14 at BUF)
NFL Late Regular Season System #7
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright and playing as underdogs or favorites of less than 3-points are just 42-98 SU and 57-84 ATS (40.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+7.5 at CIN), TENNESSEE (+3.5 at IND), NY GIANTS (+8.5 at ATL), CHICAGO (+6.5 vs. DET), CAROLINA (+4.5 vs ARI), NEW ENGLAND (+14 at BUF), LAS VEGAS (-1 vs. JAX)
NFL Late Regular Season System #10
Since 2014, NFL teams coming off divisional losses and now playing on the road have gone 63-66 SU but 76-49 ATS (60.8%) in the follow-up game.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+1 at MIA)

NFL Retread Coaching Systems​

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington).
Retread Coach Systems
(Games this week: DEN-LAC(-2.5), NYG-ATL(-8.5), PHI-WAS(+3.5))
– Retread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 87-120-1 ATS (42%). Road/Neutral games – 103-110-1 ATS (48.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS, ATLANTA, WASHINGTON
– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 96-70 SU but just 59-96-11 ATS, for 38.1%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 81-191 SU and 131-134-7 ATS (49.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS, ATLANTA
– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these retread head coaches. Since ’14, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 80-81-1 ATS (49.7%) record in their first seasons. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 109-147-1 ATS (42.6%) in that same time span.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS
– Retread coaches have been solid in revenge scenarios over the last decade, going 25-20-3 ATS (55.6%) when having lost an earlier season game against an opponent. When having beat that team the first time around, these coaches have gone just 11-19-1 ATS (36.7%) in the rematch.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems​

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta), Jayden Daniels (Washington), Drake Maye (New England), and Bo Nix (Denver).
(Games this week: DEN(+2.5)-LAC, PHI-WAS(+3.5), NYG-ATL(-8.5), DET-CHI(+6.5), NE(+14)-BUF)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 120-114-1 ATS (51.3%) in home games but just 101-126-2 ATS (44.5%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, Week 10-EOY, they are just 35-101 SU and 56-78-2 ATS (41.8%).
System Matches (FADE): DENVER, NEW ENGLAND
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
· Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 19 games, going 19-119 SU and 53-81-4 ATS (39.6%).
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO, NEW ENGLAND
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks have been solid bets in the home favorite role over the last four seasons
· Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 39-11 SU and 36-13-1 ATS (73.5%).
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
– Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 44-102 SU and 60-81-5 ATS (42.6%) versus divisional opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER, WASHINGTON, CHICAGO, NEW ENGLAND
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #12 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
· Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 19-20 SU and 25-12-2 ATS (67.6%) in their last 39 such tries. Moreover, they are 20-6-1 ATS (76.9%) in their last 27 Monday Night contests.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems​

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are two different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets) and Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh).
(Games this week: PIT(+6)-BAL, LAR-NYJ(+3.5))
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Veteran quarterbacks are best for their new teams in the month of December
I showed how these veteran QBs in new places struggle a bit out of the gate. Well, these QBs play best in the key month of December, when postseason berths are usually on the line, going 51-48 SU and 54-42-3 ATS (56.3%) since 2004.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY JETS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 25-35 SU and 24-35-1 ATS (40.7%) in their last 60 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 10-19-1 ATS (34.5%) in their last 30 Monday Night contests.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as sizeable underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 44-73 SU but 66-46-5 ATS (58.9%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY JETS

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems​

These NFL betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 45 or more points in their prior game have gone 20-15 SU but 11-24 ATS (31.4%) when favored at home by 3 or more points since 2012.
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO (-14 vs. NE)
TURNOVERS ARE KEY HANDICAPPING STATISTIC
NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 16-15 SU but 8-22-1 ATS (26.7%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5 vs. TEN)
NFL teams coming off a game with a +6 turnover differential or better have naturally been bad betting options the next week, going 5-8 SU and 3-9-1 ATS (25%) in their last 13 tries.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-3 vs. HOU)
NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 4-16 SU and 3-17 ATS (15%) in their last 20 tries.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+7.5 at CIN)

TNF, SNF, and MNF Team NFL Betting Trends and Systems​

The following NFL betting trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday NIGHT games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Road teams have been solid, 36-42 SU and 43-32-3 ATS (57.3%) in the last 78.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+3 at LAC)
· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 24-22 SU but 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 and later are 43-26 SU and 40-26-3 ATS (60.6%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-3 vs. DEN)
· A long-running trend of Thursday night home-field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 21-18 SU but 16-23 ATS (41%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-3 vs. DEN)
· Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 26-32 SU and 21-36-1 ATS (36.8%).
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-3 vs. DEN)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 18-23 SU and 23-16-2 ATS (59%) dating back to 2017.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+4 vs. TB)
· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-21 SU and 14-20-1 ATS (41.2%) in their last 35, but those coming off a win are on a current 25-7 SU and 19-13 ATS (59.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+4 vs. TB)
UNDER the total SNF Team Trends
Dallas 16-7 Under since 2016
Tampa Bay 6-1 Under stretch
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-DAL (o/u at 48)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Laying 7 points or more has for long not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 46-15 SU but just 21-38-2 ATS (35.6%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-14 vs NO)
· In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on an 18-19 SU and 22-15 ATS (59.5%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-14 vs. NO)
· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 40-35 SU but just 27-46-2 ATS (37%) in the last 75 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-14 vs. NO)
Good MNF Team NFL Betting Trends
Green Bay 9-3 SU in the last 12, 4-2 ATS in the last six
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-14 vs. NO)
Bad MNF Team NFL Betting Trends
New Orleans 4-13-1 ATS in the last 18
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+14 at GB)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team NFL Betting Trends
Dallas 13-8 ATS last 21
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+4 vs. TB)
Green Bay 17-8 SU and 18-6-1 ATS last 25
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-14 vs. NO)
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team NFL Betting Trends
Denver 9-20 SU and 10-17-2 ATS in the last 29
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (+3 at LAC)
Tampa Bay 10-18 SU and 8-20 ATS in the last 28
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-4 at DAL)
UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Denver 17-5 Under since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-LAC (o/u at 42)
New Orleans Under in 18 of the last 23 on the road
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NO-GB (o/u at 42)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors​

The following NFL betting trends were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion then being favored in the latter games are 90-18 SU and 70-38 ATS (64.8%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 at WAS)
NFL Streaks Betting System #3: NFL teams that have lost the last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 27-52 SU but 50-28-1 ATS (64.1%) since 2007.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-8.5 vs NYG)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 59-14 SU and 48-23-2 ATS (67.6%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3 vs. HOU)
NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-77 SU but 59-31 ATS (65.6%) as underdogs of 5.5 points or more since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+14 at BUF)
NFL Streaks Betting System #8: NFL teams that have lost their last five games ATS but were playing against a team whom they have at least an equal won-lost record with have gone 22-15 SU and ATS (59.5%) in their last 37 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-8.5 vs. NYG)
NFL Streaks Betting System #11: NFL teams that have won their last five games outright or more have gone 51-13 SU and 40-22-2 ATS (64.5%) since 2003 as road favorites against divisional opponents.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 at WAS)
NFL Streaks Betting System #13: NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 12-65 SU and 50-26-1 ATS (65.8%) as double-digit road underdogs since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): watch for NY GIANTS at ATL (+8.5 as of Wednesday)

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games​

The following NFL betting trends and systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 13 seasons
Best NFL rematch teams lately
– Cincinnati: 14-14 SU and 20-7 ATS in the last 27 rematch opportunities
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs. CLE)
– Detroit: 14-3-1 ATS run in rematches
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-6.5 at CHI)
– Tennessee: 16-8 SU and 15-9 ATS surge
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+3.5 at IND)
Worst NFL rematch teams lately
– Chicago: 3-14 ATS in the last 17
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+6.5 vs DET)
– Cleveland: lengthy 9-28-1 ATS rematch skid in the last 38
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+7.5 at CIN)
– Denver: 6-16 SU and 9-13 ATS in the last 22 tries
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (+2.5 at LAC)
– Philadelphia: just 5-11 SU and 3-12-1 ATS in the last 16 rematch games
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 at WAS)
Best NFL home rematch teams lately
– Cincinnati: 12-4 ATS in the last 16 home rematch opportunities
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs. CLE)
Worst NFL home rematch teams lately
– Baltimore: 6-21 ATS in the last 27 rematch home games
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-6 vs. PIT)
– Chicago: 2-11 SU and 4-9 ATS in the last 13 as host
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+6.5 vs. DET)
– Washington: 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS in the last 12 at home
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+3.5 vs. PHI)
Worst NFL road rematch teams lately
– Denver: 12 straight outright road rematch losses (3-9 ATS)
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (+2.5 at LAC)
Worst NFL revenge teams lately
– Chicago: 5-20 SU and 7-17-1 ATS in the last 25 revenge tries
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+6.5 vs DET)
– Cleveland: 5-10 SU and 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 revenge games
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+7.5 at CIN)
Best NFL teams in rematches after winning the last game lately
– Cincinnati: 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS in the last 13 follow-up games
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs. CLE)
Low-scoring rematch teams
– Indianapolis: 13-4 Under run in home rematch games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEN-IND (o/u at 42.5)

Noteworthy NFL head-to-head second-time (and third) around trends​

– Cincinnati: 11-0 ATS streak vs. CLE
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs. CLE)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings​

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NY JETS +3.5 (+2.1)
2. DENVER +2.5 (+1.7)
3. JACKSONVILLE +1 (+1.3)
4. CLEVELAND +7.5 (+0.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -3 (+2.6)
2. KANSAS CITY -3.5 (+2.3)
3. INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 (+1.8)
4. GREEN BAY -14 (+1.6)
5. TAMPA BAY -4 (+0.1)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NY JETS +3.5 (+3.3)
2. NEW ENGLAND +14 (+2.3)
3. CLEVELAND +7.5 (+1.9)
4. PITTSBURGH +6 (+1.5)
5. CHICAGO +6.5 (+0.9)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 (+1.7)
2. KANSAS CITY -3.5 (+1.0)
3. GREEN BAY -14 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-KC OVER 41.5 (+2.5)
2(tie). CLE-CIN OVER 47 (+1.0)
NYG-ATL OVER 42 (+1.0)
SF-MIA OVER 44.5 (+1.0)
5. TB-DAL OVER 48.5 (+0.7)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-SEA UNDER 43.5 (-0.9)
2. JAX-LVR UNDER 40 (-0.8)
3(tie). PIT-BAL UNDER 45 (-0.4)
NE-BUF UNDER 46.5 (-0.4)
5. DET-CHI UNDER 48 (-0.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NY JETS +3.5 (+2.7)
2. CLEVELAND +7.5 (+1.8)
3. CHICAGO +6.5 (+1.6)
4. NEW ORLEANS +14 (+1.0)
5. NEW ENGLAND +14 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI -1 (+4.3)
2. KANSAS CITY -3.5 (+2.7)
3. ATLANTA -8.5 (+1.7)
4(tie). INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 (+1.3)
MINNESOTA -3 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PIT-BAL OVER 45 (+4.0)
2(tie). HOU-KC OVER 41.5 (+2.4)
PHI-WAS OVER 45.5 (+2.4)
4. SF-MIA OVER 44.5 (+1.9)
5. DEN-LAC OVER 41.5 (+1.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYG-ATL UNDER 42 (-2.5)
2. TEN-IND UNDER 42.5 (-2.3)
3. ARI-CAR UNDER 47 (-1.2)
4. NO-GB UNDER 42.5 (-0.8)
5. MIN-SEA UNDER 43.5 (-0.7)

Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends​

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(123) DENVER at (124) LA CHARGERS
* Under the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the DEN-LAC series at Chargers
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(103) HOUSTON at (104) KANSAS CITY
* The last five games of the HOU-KC series went Over the total
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(105) PITTSBURGH at (106) BALTIMORE
* PITTSBURGH is 6-1 ATS in the last seven at Baltimore
Trend Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH ATS
(109) ARIZONA at (110) CAROLINA
* Underdogs have won the last four ATS in the ARI-CAR series
Trend Match: PLAY CAROLINA ATS
(101) CLEVELAND at (102) CINCINNATI
* CINCINNATI is 7-2 ATS in the last nine hosting Cleveland
Trend Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS
(107) DETROIT at (108) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is a 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight hosting Detroit
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(127) JACKSONVILLE at (128) LAS VEGAS
* JACKSONVILLE is on a 7-2 ATS run vs. Raiders
Trend Match: PLAY JACKSONVILLE ATS
(119) LA RAMS at (120) NY JETS
* Road teams have won the last three ATS in the LAR-NYJ series
Trend Match: PLAY LA RAMS ATS
(121) MINNESOTA at (122) SEATTLE
* Home teams are 7-2 ATS in the MIN-SEA series since 2009
Trend Match: PLAY SEATTLE ATS
(111) NEW ENGLAND at (112) BUFFALO
* NEW ENGLAND is on a 16-5 ATS extended run at Buffalo
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS
(115) NY GIANTS at (116) ATLANTA
* Under the total is 11-1-1 in the NYG-ATL series since 2000
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(113) PHILADELPHIA at (114) WASHINGTON
* WASHINGTON is on a 5-3-1 ATS run hosting Philadelphia
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS
(125) SAN FRANCISCO at (126) MIAMI
* The last four games of the SF-MIA series went Over the total
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(129) TAMPA BAY at (130) DALLAS
* The last five games of the TB-DAL series in Dallas went Under the total
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(117) TENNESSEE at (118) INDIANAPOLIS
* Underdogs have won the last four ATS of the TEN-IND series in Indianapolis
Trend Match: PLAY TENNESSEE ATS
(131) NEW ORLEANS at (132) GREEN BAY
* Underdogs have won the last three ATS in the NO-GB series
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS