it's all about 4Q scoring
2010-2019 4Q fell EVERY YEAR between 12.3-13.3 points per game (OT incl)
this year is 17.40 with road teams avg 9.31, home 8.09 ... those are insane numbers and 25% more than expected. Right now no under bet is safe no matter the score after 3rd Q
only two games this year (Rams/Boys, Browns/Balt) have seen less than 10 points scored in 4th