NFL PRESEASON WEEK #3

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Just some thoughts for now about this weeks upcoming games.

Pats(+3.5) at Eagles

The last three years the Pats are 8-4 (ATS) 3-2 on the road, & 4-2 as a dog.

The Eagles the last three years are 3-5 (ATS) including being 1-3 at home, and as a fav are just 1-3.

Just a few thoughts here on this game as I really like the Pats here.

Also the Giants are a home dog I will be fading this week vs the Jets who are a play on team the last few years.
 

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Thanks Panther here is the breakdown percentage wise the last three years on a few teams. Now take in mind there have been a few coaching changes.

(Not including this year)
Weak Preseason teams the last 3 yrs.

Team (ATS) %

Jacksonville 25%
Carolina 30%
Seattle 32%
Detroit 33%
TB 33%
Giants 33%
Buff 36%
Indy 38%
Eagles 38%
Bengals 42%
Oak 42%
Rams 42%
----------------------------------------------

Strong Preseason teams the last 3 yrs.

Team (ATS) %

Atlanta 85%
Denver 75%
Tenn 70 %
NE 67%
Minn 67%
Jets 64%
Pitt 62%
Balt 60%

------------------------------------------------

Intresting notes from the last 3 yrs concerning this weeks games:

All figures vs the spread (ATS)

Atlanta is 6-0 on the road, & as a dog 6-0
Denver is 9-3 as a fav the past 3 yrs.
Miami is 1-4 at home & 1-4 as a fav

Will add to this......
 

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I like the pats too and the problem with me being a fan (as I have mentioned before) is that I spend each week having to convince myself why not to bet on them.

This week however convincing me of that might not be as hard as in other weeks. I'm not sure yet but I am thinking that this would be as good a week to lay off them as any.

Here are some of Belechek's comments:

"Q: Is there anything you would like to see accomplished in the game against Philadelphia?

BB: Well, first of all, I think Philadelphia is really a good football team. They are 1) one of top special team units in the league, I think [John] Harbaugh did a good job getting players. They are well coached. They did very good in the kicking game. Defensively, Jimmy Johnson does as good of a job as anyone in the league with his pressure package. They are sound, but at the same time they are aggressive. They attack you. They force a lot of bad plays. They have very good players on defense too, in the running game, pass coverage, pass rush. And offensively, they have a lot of weapons starting with the quarterback. Again, Andy [Reid] is an excellent coach. He does a real good job with the scheme, gives you a lot of preparation problems. They have good receivers; they've got a good tight end. They have a good quarterback. The backs run hard. They've got a good offensive line. So this is a real good football team. They've been in the NFC Championship the last two years for a good reason. You don't get that far two years in a row by…they've got a good football team. They are well coached. And they are good in every phase of the game. They are not a one-dimensional team by any stretch. I think this week we have a big challenge, a) in terms of personnel we are playing and b) in terms of the schemes we are facing in all three areas. I think they are very good. They also have a nice blend of youth with some experienced players; so they have a lot of young guys coming up, at the same time they've got some older, established people that are good, solid players in their position as well. It's a good football team. We are on the road. We are playing them in a new stadium. I am sure there will be a lot of excitement and enthusiasm down in Philadelphia. I think this will be a real good challenge for our football team this week."

I know it doesn't say much in reality but watching last weeks game against Washington says a lot to me about this team's weaknesses.

The Skins had 13 penalties and 3 turnovers and forced 131 rushing yards down the throat of the pats new 3-4 scheme. It seems like with the switch to the exclusive 3-4 set they are lacking manpower to stop the shots up the gut. Klecko is small (relatively) and with all those linebackers there can be more room for miscues up front especially (especailly this early in the season also).

The pats scored on a kick return that a team like Philly would likely not have given up and is not likely to be giving up anytime soon... Also the Patten TD early on was great - not to knock the play - but the CB did slip. Bot saying it can't happen again or that it didn't count but the pats certainly benefited from it somewhat anyway.

They also missed an extra point for no apparent reason to me. It seemed like all the regulars but its possible that Woody was the regular longsnapper and had been injured by that point.

Which brings me to another point - With Woody going down, and since the team cut Stai, and with the injuries at RT to Kenyatta Jones and Adrian Klemm - also I think though Andruzzi has been playing, he is also banged up to some extent (nothing compared to years past with him but banged up none the less) - the protection and run blocking isnt gonna be anywhere near 100%.

Having said all of that I have to say that I am very impressed with the play of the 2 rookie corners Samuel and Wilson, apparently Belecheck has been also because he cut Otis Smith the other day. Rodney Harrison is a murderer (In the football sense) and if any team has the depth at line backer to successfully pull of the shift to the 3-4 defense then its this team.

On the Eagles side - of course Staley is out, and though it seems like the eagles have a lot of no name receivers, their depth at QB seems like it will be a factor, and a challenge for the pats D.

Like Belecheck said I think this is gonna be a challenge for this team and I think that the new stadium will have these nuts in philly as wasted as they can be early on.

I think that the one variable that will mean the most in this game will be the pats ability (or inability) to stop the run, or the abilty/the lack of the eagles ability to execute the run...
 

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Sounds like a generic response on the running games impact on the outcome but after thinking about it some more I can't see belechek not whipping their asses into shape and coming into philly with their heads on straight.

To be honest the trend does nothing for me and last night is a great example - Gruden a perrenial winner in preseason, and Martz a big loser - yet the Rams get momentum early and its all downhill from there. The Eagles have 2 decent games under their belt without anyone at running back OR receiver. McNabb is healty and that is all they need. Can it get them past the Pats D? dunno.

I do know that these teams match up well on special teams and it is gonna be a fun game to watch. Heads will probably be coming off early on in this game.
 

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Oakland the last three yrs are only 42% winners vs the spread. Most of that was Gruden so I wouldn't exactly call him a "perennial winner" vs (ATS). I don't care if he's 9-1 SU if he's 1-9 vs the spread he's worthless. In 2002 Gruden was 1-3 vs the spread. I can't see how anyone wouldn't have liked the Rams last night.
 

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I was just talking about SU record in preseason. I wasnt necissarily saying that he should have lost by less in those games or won by more in those games which is what his record ATS tells you - I did not use the term ATS in that statement.

I was just pointing out the fact that He has a better record over the last few years than Martz. If this is an incorrect statement then I'll be glad to revise it but, though I haven't checked the records past the last 2 preseasons I do see that martz has won very few in preseason and Gruden has won a lot more.

Like I said initially last night was a toss up and I was leaning toward Tampa at risk of falling into a sucker trap. I took them and I fell.

I think my reasoning was sound in picking them however, because without question "on paper" the bucs looked at the least as-good-as the rams. Thats why the line came out at (around) Rams -2.5 on their home turf.
 

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Another big week for me as you can see. All my plays this week are based on preseason trends of the last three years & just plain ole common sense & preseaon capping angles.

Pats +3.5
Saints +3.5
KC +3
Falcons +6
Cleve +1.5
Jets -1.5
Titans -1.5


Monster Teaser

Jets +8.5
Patriots +13.5
Titans +8.5



Preseason Record 10-8

Monsters 3-1
Sides 6-5
Halfs 1-2
 

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Took a very bad beating this weekend. This will do it for me as for as NFLX goes, except for maybe 1 monster teaser next week possibly. Trying to hit with Seattle tonight in bases to take some of the sting out of this weekend. GL to all.

Preseason Record 13-15

Monsters 4-1
Sides 8-12
Halfs 1-2
 

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st joe

man dont feel bad it has been a tuff year for preseason.

this is how my luck has been running.I finally have a good night.everytime I tried to post my plays my internet disconnected.

well at least Iam about even money wise

good luck in reg nfl and college

panther
 

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Yeah bummer about Seattle too. I would have said something but I didn't wanna get caught saying something like "I don't see how anyone would have liked seattle".

Nothing worse than being called on that huh.

I guess we're even.
 

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Anytime the better team is a dog & the pitchers duel a dead heat you have to take the obvious play especially since they had already lost 4 in row. I felt they were due. It cost me a full unit!

Oh BTW call this
fuck2.gif
 

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I know - I was just doggin ya.

No hard feelings...


Are you playing a side tonight?

I am on Indy small.
 

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No nothing for me man! I might hit a monster next weekend we will see. GL to you though
 

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