NFL Picks for 9/21 (I'm a mark for the Bucs)

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Steelers (-4)A lot of people seem to be on the Bengals, after last week's inspired performance. I'm not falling for it. The Steeler D will have a chip on their shoulder after last week, and the Bungles are still the Bungles, until they prove otherwise. (6-12 ATS at home)
Lions (+3.5)This pick is based mostly on the tech trends in this rivalry. The NFC North is a fairly predictable division ATS-wise. At home, in a division game, the Lions will come to play. The Vikings need to string a together a few road ATS victories for me to be a believer.
Bucs (-5)The Bucs have not allowed a TD yet, and their defense will be even faster on turf. Doug Johnson doesn't have a chance, and the Falcon D made Patrick Ramsey look like Slingin Sammy last week
Packers at Cardinals (Over 43)I do not like to play over/unders. However, based on both shaky defenses, I feel there is something here. Favre and Green Bay will get their points and the Cardinals will get some passing yards against this Packer secondary, as Blake can still throw the deep ball. He'll have to with their running game.
Browns (+7)This will be the third week I have been on the Browns, so if they get blown out here, I'm off them for good. It seems like everyone and their brother is on the 49ers. That makes me feel more comfortable with the Browns. All I've been hearing is that the 49ers will have something to prove after last week's disappointing loss. Hello! The Browns were torched for 295 yds. rushing after being told about it. I think that means they might have a little more to prove this week. They will be in desperation mode as they know they cannot start 0-3. They probably won't win, but I like them to cover.
 

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