[h=1]Karabell's Week 2 super-early look: It's a Miami thing[/h]
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Fantasy managers are going to be overly excited this week about Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and WR Marquise Brown after the duo combined for more than 60 PPR points in Sunday's embarrassing romp in Miami over the beleaguered Dolphins. The Ravens host the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2 and, while that Cardinals defense looks to be less than imposing, the fact is the Dolphins look truly terrible -- like worst-in-the-league incompetent.
Then again, it is only one game. For the most part, it is still simply too early to make meaningful conjectures, either positive or negative.
As a result, Jackson, the fascinating running quarterback who so many believed was incapable of efficient passing games, and Brown, the speedy receiver from Oklahoma selected first at his position in the draft, should have their initial performances judged as the small sample size and context requirements that they are. Sure, perhaps they can maintain some level of awesomeness for four months, but more likely this is, for lack of a better term, a Dolphins-related fantasy masterpiece. Proceed with caution.
After all, the player churn on Miami's roster has been clear and notable, and no Dolphins team had ever permitted 59 points or 643 yards in a game. Jackson barely felt pressure in the pocket, and Brown barely saw reasonable coverage on scoring plays of 47- and 83-yards that doubled as his first NFL receptions. Between Jackson and backup Robert Griffin III, Ravens quarterbacks completed 23-of-26 passes for 378 yards and six touchdowns. The Ravens were second to Seattle in rushing yards last season, and it seems unlikely that general game plan has altered. However, for one game, Miami's absent defense altered it. I'll bet the Ravens could have run wild, too.
If Jackson is going to end the 2019 season as a top-10 fantasy quarterback -- which is eminently plausible given his running skill set -- he is unlikely to get there by producing Patrick Mahomes-like passing numbers. In the postgame interview session, the quarterback even proudly noted, responding to his myriad critics, "Not bad for a running back." Well, yeah, sure it was "not bad" at all, but again, we need context and cannot get that for a few more contests.
Jackson was anything but accurate as a rookie, though players can and often do improve. His ESPN Fantasy projections of 3,099 passing yards and 14 touchdown passes seemed a bit tame to me, but this one game does not drastically alter the numbers, either. Nobody thought Jackson would throw for five scores in one game. Still, I think he is capable of 20 touchdown throws over four months, along with the rushing upside. Let us see what happens -- not only in Week 2 versus the Cardinals, but in those AFC North battles that await soon after.
That noted, I am a Jackson fan for fantasy. I've been recommending him (and often pointing out the running ability of other quarterbacks like Cam Newton, Kyler Murray and Josh Allen) for months due to his rushing statistical upside and the likelihood he could throw better than he showed as a rookie, when the Ravens barely permitted him the opportunity to throw downfield. The Ravens lacked reasonable weapons for him then, and adding Brown in the draft made perfect sense. Still, Brown is merely a rookie and most first-year receivers lack consistency.
Brown adds a critical deep threat to the offense, and perhaps he can be DeSean Jackson for the next decade, but we do not know this yet. He surely has the skills -- specifically the speed. However, Brown has also had durability issues and he saw targets on nearly half his snaps Sunday. That cannot continue, and our standard game is, after all, PPR. Add Brown for Week 2. He is available in more than 70% of ESPN standard formats. However, he has not earned WR2 status just yet, so one is not under obligation to activate him. In fact, one could easily argue there will never be a better time to attempt to trade the rookie.
Back to the woeful Dolphins: OK, we knew they would struggle in their rebuild, and they seem to crave that No. 1 overall pick in 2020. There is dysfunction there and more player exits could be pending. Good news! Week 2 finds them hosting the New England Patriots in Antonio Brown's debut! In this case, yes, Tom Brady warrants QB1 status and bumping up Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, Sony Michel and James White makes sense. Just don't get too crazy with loading up against Miami. Relying on WR Phillip Dorsett, RB Rex Burkhead or any Patriots tight end is too much -- at least for now. I mean, give it a month first.
Here are some other thoughts heading into Week 2.
[h=3]The Gurley question persists![/h]Los Angeles Rams RB Todd Gurley II salvaged what was trending in the direction of a disappointing fantasy game by rushing for 64 of his 97 yards in the fourth quarter. Earlier in the contest, he was on the sideline for a pair of Malcolm Brown short touchdowns. This is a problem, of course, since Gurley investors want last season's workload and all the trappings and not a goal-line handcuff. Also, where was touted rookie Darrell Henderson? Watch him become one of the most-dropped players this week, though that is an overreaction. I wanted no part of Gurley in 2019 drafts, and trying to trade him now might prove to be a problem. The Saints come calling in Week 2, so let's see if the touches are divided differently. I suspect this is the "new normal" for Gurley. Had the Rams been trailing in the fourth quarter at Carolina, Gurley would have had a terrible statistical game.
[h=3]Who catches those Mahomes dimes?[/h]
Patrick Mahomes' receiving options must change in Week 2 because Tyreek Hill will not be there, due to a collarbone injury. I think people will drastically overrate Sammy Watkins because he had the monster Sunday with 198 receiving yards and three touchdowns. We know the Chiefs have a great offense, and we know Watkins can be good. We also know Watkins cannot remain healthy. Something is always wrong with him physically, and sometimes -- too many times -- he simply misses games. Watkins just had the game of his career and there will never be a better time to test the market, because he is not a WR2 to me -- even if Hill ends up being out for months (which he supposedly will not). The Chiefs visit Oakland on Sunday and I suppose rookie Mecole Hardman or veteran Demarcus Robinson step up to statistical relevance, but I doubt it. Expect more for Travis Kelce and the running backs in what should be a one-sided affair.
[h=3]Mustache sustainability[/h]
Speaking of a lack of durability, Jacksonville Jaguars QB Nick Foles will be out for a long time with a broken clavicle. Rookie Gardner Minshew stunningly stepped up with 275 yards on 22-of-25 passing. Sure, never say never and all that, but it makes no sense to add him when the position is so deep and he is a rookie with limited weapons at his disposal. The Chiefs were not in danger of losing this game. One would think the Houston Texans' pass rush makes life difficult in Week 2. If you already rostered WR Dede Westbrook, continue to do so, but be prepared to move on, too. After all, it's not like Foles was even a top-20 fantasy quarterback.
[h=3]Gronk 2.0, or a Lion?[/h]
Our first look at Detroit Lions TE T.J. Hockenson was a spectacular one, and there will be myriad Rob Gronkowski comparisons. OK, go add the rookie in case he is a top-10 tight end, because the back end of the top 10 begs for a new option or three to force their way in. That said, Matthew Stafford is not Tom Brady and, highly touted or not, this is just one game. Defenses will adapt, too. That noted, if I am rostering Kyle Rudolph, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham or any Colt, Redskin or Cowboy at the position, I'd add the newbie.9
[h=3]The Kyler question[/h]
Speaking of rookies, the Kyler Murray haters had to enjoy the first three quarters of the Lions routing the Cardinals -- until Murray led a big comeback and an eventual overtime tie and ended up surpassing 300 passing yards. Murray rarely ran with the football and it took a bit before he found open receivers, but then he looked great. He will be great. The bottom line on quarterbacks is there are no byes in Week 2 and (sorry, Nick) no key injuries to fantasy starters yet. Leave Murray on your bench for the entirety of September and use him only after he blossoms into a top-10 option, which I think he will. As with my preseason rankings, my end-of-season rankings (coming Tuesday!) will reflect this.
[h=3]The Gordon question[/h]Sunday reports indicate Los Angeles Chargers running back Melvin Gordon will be taking his sweet old time reporting to the organization in his contract stalemate and perhaps not until November. Austin Ekeler investors hope it takes longer and, by the way, what if the Chargers just stick with Ekeler as their starter? There is no loyalty in this sport. Ekeler skewered the Indianapolis defense for 39.4 PPR points, and some will regard him as a RB1 for Week 2 in Detroit. I won't argue.
[h=3]Don't sell on these RBs[/h]<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>The young running backs for the Eagles and Redskins totaled 43 rushing yards on 21 totes, and some might do exactly the wrong thing and give up on these backfields. Do not do it! Miles Sanders is the most talented running back on the Eagles, and he did have a touchdown called back by penalty. Derrius Guice had a quiet game and, with a knee issue, may well be out for some time. Still, someone will run on Dallas in Week 2, be it Chris Thompson, Wendell Smallwood or Adrian Peterson. Sanders might need longer to gain a major share of the Philadelphia backfield touches, but it is coming.
[h=3]Early Thursday tips[/h]
Finally, this Thursday features the NFC South teams that lost at home to NFC West teams. I thought Carolina's Cam Newton moved around fine, and it was not odd how much volume Christian McCaffrey got at the goal line. McCaffrey deserves it. Newton should have an easier time carving up Tampa Bay's secondary. Jameis Winston, meanwhile, will never change. He is a turnover machine. I doubt the short week changes either quarterback, so do not overthink it. Only one of them is a top-10 fantasy QB anyway.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Fantasy managers are going to be overly excited this week about Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and WR Marquise Brown after the duo combined for more than 60 PPR points in Sunday's embarrassing romp in Miami over the beleaguered Dolphins. The Ravens host the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2 and, while that Cardinals defense looks to be less than imposing, the fact is the Dolphins look truly terrible -- like worst-in-the-league incompetent.
Then again, it is only one game. For the most part, it is still simply too early to make meaningful conjectures, either positive or negative.
As a result, Jackson, the fascinating running quarterback who so many believed was incapable of efficient passing games, and Brown, the speedy receiver from Oklahoma selected first at his position in the draft, should have their initial performances judged as the small sample size and context requirements that they are. Sure, perhaps they can maintain some level of awesomeness for four months, but more likely this is, for lack of a better term, a Dolphins-related fantasy masterpiece. Proceed with caution.
After all, the player churn on Miami's roster has been clear and notable, and no Dolphins team had ever permitted 59 points or 643 yards in a game. Jackson barely felt pressure in the pocket, and Brown barely saw reasonable coverage on scoring plays of 47- and 83-yards that doubled as his first NFL receptions. Between Jackson and backup Robert Griffin III, Ravens quarterbacks completed 23-of-26 passes for 378 yards and six touchdowns. The Ravens were second to Seattle in rushing yards last season, and it seems unlikely that general game plan has altered. However, for one game, Miami's absent defense altered it. I'll bet the Ravens could have run wild, too.
If Jackson is going to end the 2019 season as a top-10 fantasy quarterback -- which is eminently plausible given his running skill set -- he is unlikely to get there by producing Patrick Mahomes-like passing numbers. In the postgame interview session, the quarterback even proudly noted, responding to his myriad critics, "Not bad for a running back." Well, yeah, sure it was "not bad" at all, but again, we need context and cannot get that for a few more contests.
Jackson was anything but accurate as a rookie, though players can and often do improve. His ESPN Fantasy projections of 3,099 passing yards and 14 touchdown passes seemed a bit tame to me, but this one game does not drastically alter the numbers, either. Nobody thought Jackson would throw for five scores in one game. Still, I think he is capable of 20 touchdown throws over four months, along with the rushing upside. Let us see what happens -- not only in Week 2 versus the Cardinals, but in those AFC North battles that await soon after.
That noted, I am a Jackson fan for fantasy. I've been recommending him (and often pointing out the running ability of other quarterbacks like Cam Newton, Kyler Murray and Josh Allen) for months due to his rushing statistical upside and the likelihood he could throw better than he showed as a rookie, when the Ravens barely permitted him the opportunity to throw downfield. The Ravens lacked reasonable weapons for him then, and adding Brown in the draft made perfect sense. Still, Brown is merely a rookie and most first-year receivers lack consistency.
Brown adds a critical deep threat to the offense, and perhaps he can be DeSean Jackson for the next decade, but we do not know this yet. He surely has the skills -- specifically the speed. However, Brown has also had durability issues and he saw targets on nearly half his snaps Sunday. That cannot continue, and our standard game is, after all, PPR. Add Brown for Week 2. He is available in more than 70% of ESPN standard formats. However, he has not earned WR2 status just yet, so one is not under obligation to activate him. In fact, one could easily argue there will never be a better time to attempt to trade the rookie.
Back to the woeful Dolphins: OK, we knew they would struggle in their rebuild, and they seem to crave that No. 1 overall pick in 2020. There is dysfunction there and more player exits could be pending. Good news! Week 2 finds them hosting the New England Patriots in Antonio Brown's debut! In this case, yes, Tom Brady warrants QB1 status and bumping up Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, Sony Michel and James White makes sense. Just don't get too crazy with loading up against Miami. Relying on WR Phillip Dorsett, RB Rex Burkhead or any Patriots tight end is too much -- at least for now. I mean, give it a month first.
Here are some other thoughts heading into Week 2.
[h=3]The Gurley question persists![/h]Los Angeles Rams RB Todd Gurley II salvaged what was trending in the direction of a disappointing fantasy game by rushing for 64 of his 97 yards in the fourth quarter. Earlier in the contest, he was on the sideline for a pair of Malcolm Brown short touchdowns. This is a problem, of course, since Gurley investors want last season's workload and all the trappings and not a goal-line handcuff. Also, where was touted rookie Darrell Henderson? Watch him become one of the most-dropped players this week, though that is an overreaction. I wanted no part of Gurley in 2019 drafts, and trying to trade him now might prove to be a problem. The Saints come calling in Week 2, so let's see if the touches are divided differently. I suspect this is the "new normal" for Gurley. Had the Rams been trailing in the fourth quarter at Carolina, Gurley would have had a terrible statistical game.
[h=3]Who catches those Mahomes dimes?[/h]
Patrick Mahomes' receiving options must change in Week 2 because Tyreek Hill will not be there, due to a collarbone injury. I think people will drastically overrate Sammy Watkins because he had the monster Sunday with 198 receiving yards and three touchdowns. We know the Chiefs have a great offense, and we know Watkins can be good. We also know Watkins cannot remain healthy. Something is always wrong with him physically, and sometimes -- too many times -- he simply misses games. Watkins just had the game of his career and there will never be a better time to test the market, because he is not a WR2 to me -- even if Hill ends up being out for months (which he supposedly will not). The Chiefs visit Oakland on Sunday and I suppose rookie Mecole Hardman or veteran Demarcus Robinson step up to statistical relevance, but I doubt it. Expect more for Travis Kelce and the running backs in what should be a one-sided affair.
[h=3]Mustache sustainability[/h]
Speaking of a lack of durability, Jacksonville Jaguars QB Nick Foles will be out for a long time with a broken clavicle. Rookie Gardner Minshew stunningly stepped up with 275 yards on 22-of-25 passing. Sure, never say never and all that, but it makes no sense to add him when the position is so deep and he is a rookie with limited weapons at his disposal. The Chiefs were not in danger of losing this game. One would think the Houston Texans' pass rush makes life difficult in Week 2. If you already rostered WR Dede Westbrook, continue to do so, but be prepared to move on, too. After all, it's not like Foles was even a top-20 fantasy quarterback.
[h=3]Gronk 2.0, or a Lion?[/h]
Our first look at Detroit Lions TE T.J. Hockenson was a spectacular one, and there will be myriad Rob Gronkowski comparisons. OK, go add the rookie in case he is a top-10 tight end, because the back end of the top 10 begs for a new option or three to force their way in. That said, Matthew Stafford is not Tom Brady and, highly touted or not, this is just one game. Defenses will adapt, too. That noted, if I am rostering Kyle Rudolph, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham or any Colt, Redskin or Cowboy at the position, I'd add the newbie.9
[h=3]The Kyler question[/h]
Speaking of rookies, the Kyler Murray haters had to enjoy the first three quarters of the Lions routing the Cardinals -- until Murray led a big comeback and an eventual overtime tie and ended up surpassing 300 passing yards. Murray rarely ran with the football and it took a bit before he found open receivers, but then he looked great. He will be great. The bottom line on quarterbacks is there are no byes in Week 2 and (sorry, Nick) no key injuries to fantasy starters yet. Leave Murray on your bench for the entirety of September and use him only after he blossoms into a top-10 option, which I think he will. As with my preseason rankings, my end-of-season rankings (coming Tuesday!) will reflect this.
[h=3]The Gordon question[/h]Sunday reports indicate Los Angeles Chargers running back Melvin Gordon will be taking his sweet old time reporting to the organization in his contract stalemate and perhaps not until November. Austin Ekeler investors hope it takes longer and, by the way, what if the Chargers just stick with Ekeler as their starter? There is no loyalty in this sport. Ekeler skewered the Indianapolis defense for 39.4 PPR points, and some will regard him as a RB1 for Week 2 in Detroit. I won't argue.
[h=3]Don't sell on these RBs[/h]<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>The young running backs for the Eagles and Redskins totaled 43 rushing yards on 21 totes, and some might do exactly the wrong thing and give up on these backfields. Do not do it! Miles Sanders is the most talented running back on the Eagles, and he did have a touchdown called back by penalty. Derrius Guice had a quiet game and, with a knee issue, may well be out for some time. Still, someone will run on Dallas in Week 2, be it Chris Thompson, Wendell Smallwood or Adrian Peterson. Sanders might need longer to gain a major share of the Philadelphia backfield touches, but it is coming.
[h=3]Early Thursday tips[/h]
Finally, this Thursday features the NFC South teams that lost at home to NFC West teams. I thought Carolina's Cam Newton moved around fine, and it was not odd how much volume Christian McCaffrey got at the goal line. McCaffrey deserves it. Newton should have an easier time carving up Tampa Bay's secondary. Jameis Winston, meanwhile, will never change. He is a turnover machine. I doubt the short week changes either quarterback, so do not overthink it. Only one of them is a top-10 fantasy QB anyway.
