NFL KICKOFF 2004

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84-62-8 LY in my first year at the RX.

Tonight:
Indianapolis (+3')
Not a homer pick (remember I picked the Pats in the AFC Title game LY). This is a gut feeling combined with various preseason observations.

The Colts are 5-1 ATS as a Road Doggie under Dungy. They seem to always show well in regular season nationally televised games (i.e. @ New Orleans on Sunday Night LY, @ Tampa Bay on Monday Night LY, @ Denver on Sunday Night 2002).

Golden Contender also pointed out that the SB Champ is 8-14-2 ATS in Season openers.

I think the Pats are getting overhyped this year. Granted, they look better on paper than they did last year. However, I think their defense will slip a bit this year b/c of the new rules (i.e. all the holding penalties on Ty Law and the secondary that were not called in the AFC Championship game). Plus, this is the team that still gave up 29 to Carolina in the Super Bowl LY.

Also, I think the Edge will have a big night tonight and a Pro Bowl year. They saved him all of preseason and he is 100%. Remember, this is a contract year and it has been well documented that Edge may want to go elsewhere (i.e. Miami, which just happens to have an opening at Running Back).

New England has dominated the series in the last few years and were 9-1 ATS as a Home Fav LY, yet the line is only 3 or 3.5? Peyton Manning has also struggled in every game versus a Belichick defense. Something is fishy with this one.

GL

HD
 

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Thank god for the hook! I'm sure I'll get the bad end of it later in the season, but at least i came out ahead tonight. Hope everyone who had the Pats or the Colts at least got a push out of the deal.

HD
 

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