Matchups: Spreading 'em out
This is the final week in which six teams go on a bye. Only two (Texans, Giants) have off in Week 10, and no team has a bye from then on. With that, let's get to the matchups.
[SIZE=+1]1:00PM ET Games[/SIZE]
Baltimore @ Cincinnati
The Paul Brown Stadium conditions won't deter passing with moderate winds, 65-degree temps, and no rain in the forecast. Bracket coverage was Joe Flacco and Derrick Mason's kryptonite in the Bengals' Week 5 win over Baltimore, however, as Flacco threw for just one TD, 186 yards, and two picks while Mason went catch-less. Bengals DC Mike Zimmer figures to employ a similar strategy, so it's up to creative Ravens play caller Cam Cameron to adjust. Use Flacco and Mason at your own risk...Averaging only 38 yards a game since Week 1, Mark Clayton isn't an option.
Cameron has shown a willingness to rely on Ray Rice as his featured skill player. Rice totaled 143 yards and a score in Week 5's BAL-CIN meeting and has 85 touches to Willis McGahee's 18 in the last five games. Cincinnati doesn't have the speed at linebacker to contain Baltimore's every-down back...Todd Heap has deservedly fallen into fantasy obscurity since his Week 1 and 2 TDs. He's taking on more blocking assignments and averaging just 40.8 yards a game since.
With CBs Domonique Foxworth and Fabian Washington tackling better, Baltimore isn't the plus matchup for passing games it once was. Still, it would be hard to sit Carson Palmer (nine TDs and at least 233 yards in his last four games) against the NFL's No. 19 secondary...Chad Ochocinco has long had Foxworth's number and racked up 94 yards in their last battle...Cincy continues to rotate at "No. 2" receiver with Laveranues Coles, Andre Caldwell, and Chris Henry canceling each other out. Only Henry (in Week 5, ironically) has topped 57 yards once this year.
The Week 8 bye came at a good time for Cedric Benson -- after he saw a career-high 38 touches versus Chicago. Such workloads are cause for concern, especially when the back already leads the AFC in carries. The Ravens will make stopping the run a priority after CedBen gashed them for 136 yards and a score in Week 5, snapping Baltimore's 40-game streak of holding opposing rushers below the century mark. But with Ravens DT/DE Haloti Ngata (ankle) banged up and NT Kelly Gregg not playing well after microfracture surgery, Benson can be used with confidence.
Houston @ Indianapolis
The Texans haven't given up on Steve Slaton, but an NFL-high five lost fumbles have cost him his feature back job. Gary Kubiak plans to use all of his RBs at Indy, with Ryan Moats possibly the best bet for early-down work, Slaton limited to passing downs, and Chris Brown handling short-yardage carries. While the Colts are susceptible to the run (4.5 YPC allowed), this is a situation to avoid unless you're desperate. There's no telling which back will end up with the most touches, and Kubiak is unlikely reinstall Slaton as the clear lead runner when Moats has the hot hand.
Owen Daniels' loss won't severely hurt Matt Schaub. Kevin Walter steps up as Houston's No. 2 passing-game option -- a role he's been highly effective in before. He has a similar skill set to Daniels with better speed and is a solid WR3 going forward...Indianapolis is perhaps the league's toughest team to throw on (NFL-low three passing TDs allowed, 5.5 YPA against), but this one could easily turn into a shootout under Lucas Oil Stadium's retractable roof. The Colts will also be without top CB Kelvin Hayden (knee). Schaub and Andre Johnson are obvious must-starts.
So much for Reggie Wayne's groin injury. He was sensational in last week's comeback victory, racking up grabs over the middle, down the sideline, on receiver screens, and over the top. He's the best route runner on the planet...Joseph Addai "vultured" a TD pass in Week 8, but Peyton Manning will resume scoring against Houston's No. 14 pass defense. The Texans bring little heat (11 sacks; third fewest) and surrender big passing plays (22 of 20+ yards)...Austin Collie, coming off a six-catch game, remains a solid WR3 with Anthony Gonzalez (knee) still not close to ready.
While grabbing an early lead helped at Buffalo last week, the Texans continued to play stout run defense, holding Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch to under four yards per carry combined. Starting RBs now average a putrid 27 rushing yards per game in their last five matchups with Houston. Consider sitting Joseph Addai if Donald Brown (shoulder) returns. Brown wasn't on Wednesday's initial injury report, and this is a tough matchup...With Daniels lost for 2009, Dallas Clark and Vernon Davis have become the two most valuable tight ends in fantasy.
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Ryan Grant's role in Green Bay's Week 8 game plan was predictably minor against Minnesota's stout front four, but he's a strong bet to resume a 20+ carry workload at Tampa. No NFC team is more porous against the run, and the Bucs' 4.7 YPC allowed is fourth worst in the league. As mentioned previously in this space, Grant is always more productive in the second halves of seasons...Avoid Packers tight ends. Jermichael Finley (knee) won't play, Donald Lee is almost strictly a "help" blocker, and converted linebacker Spencer Havner's TD run is an obvious fluke.
Sunday's Raymond James Stadium forecast calls for temps in the 80s, a 10% chance of rain, and moderate winds. Packers LT Chad Clifton will retake his job after rookie T.J. Lang was whipped by Jared Allen last week, which also can't hurt the air game. Aaron Rodgers is torching defenses with 12 TDs and an otherworldly 309-yard average in his last five games. He's fantasy's No. 1 QB...Greg Jennings, rounding into shape with an 8-88-1 line in Week 8, has a better matchup (against Ronde Barber) than Donald Driver, who faces emerging Bucs shutdown CB Aqib Talib.
In Josh Freeman's starting debut, Tampa Bay's offense will struggle to stay even in the time-of-possession battle, let alone generate first downs. Freeman, who Bucs offensive coordinator Greg Olson admits is well over his ideal playing weight, consistently locked onto targets and threw inaccurate passes in the preseason. Clearly not game-ready, the Kansas State product will get a rude introduction to non-Big 12 secondaries when he faces Charles Woodson and Green Bay's top-ten pass defense. Bench all of your Bucs pass catchers, including Kellen Winslow.
The Bucs may go into this game planning to "focus on the run," but it doesn't matter. They won't move the ball, face a Packers run defense that's allowed the fourth fewest rushing scores in the league and just 3.5 YPC, and are using a tightening backfield rotation. Carnell Williams started the Bucs' last game, but saw fewer touches than "backup" Derrick Ward. The Packers' fantasy defense is a better bet for points than any skill position player on the Buccaneers' roster.
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Arizona @ Chicago
The Bears are 3-0 at Soldier Field with a scoring margin of 95-44, and 1-3 on the road with a 58-112 margin. Owners intending to start Jay Cutler can also point out that Arizona is 20th against the pass, and his TD to INT ratio is 4-1 at home to 7-10 away. Cutler has a big enough arm to cut through winds off Lake Michigan. Otherwise, the conditions (low-60s temps, 10% chance of rain) favor passing...Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, and Greg Olsen are still all weak fantasy bets. Olsen hasn't topped 57 yards in a game all year, and Bennett and Knox cancel each other out.
Devin Hester has clearly emerged as the Bears' No. 1 receiver. An ankle injury that kept him out of Wednesday's practice isn't known to be serious, and Hester is averaging nearly 90 yards in his last three games. He's an every-week WR2...Matt Forte faces a Cardinals team that was lit up by DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart last week (combined 245 rushing yards, two TDs), but doesn't have the advantages that Carolina's "Double Trouble" backfield did. Chicago's offensive line isn't opening nearly as many holes, and both Stewart and Williams' talent trump Forte's.
This will be a hard fought and potentially low-scoring game despite premier QBs on both sides. Arizona's passing attack has been unable to generate big plays because it's seen so much Cover 2, and nobody executes the zone better than Lovie Smith's club. Kurt Warner is a low-end QB1 with fairly limited upside against the Bears' top-12 pass defense...Look for the Cardinals to hold out Anquan Boldin for at least one game, then reassess the state of his ankle injury before a Week 10 intradivision matchup versus Seattle. In that scenario, Steve Breaston would start at Chicago.
The Bears don't use Charles Tillman to shadow No. 1 wideouts, so Larry Fitzgerald will see his share of burnable Bears RCB Zackary Bowman. Fitz's numbers are down from 2009, but he's still the No. 10 overall fantasy receiver and always a good bet to score...Tim Hightower was Arizona's feature back in Week 8, but only because of in-game situations. The Cards fell behind Carolina by multiple scores and were forced to throw. Hightower is the passing-down back. In what should be a closer affair, expect Hightower and Chris Wells to share the backfield evenly.
Miami @ New England
The Dolphins employed the rare tactic of single covering Randy Moss in their last meeting, and he went off for 8-125-3. Expect Moss to see double teams this time, but the corner on him will be a rookie and Miami's safeties are always a step late...The Foxboro forecast calls for light wind, high-50s temps, and no chance of rain. New England can dominate by spreading out the defense to get Moss and Wes Welker on islands, and pick apart the Fins' shallow secondary with short passes. Among Week 9 fantasy QBs, perhaps only Aaron Rodgers has a better matchup than Tom Brady.
It'd make no sense to run Laurence Maroney "into the pile" when Miami is No. 6 against the run and gets back ILB Channing Crowder (shoulder). While he's been the primary back with Sammy Morris (knee) and Fred Taylor (ankle) out, Maroney has a poor matchup and New England can whip Miami through the air. We may see "spread back" Kevin Faulk just as often...Tight ends are always good plays against the Dolphins' slow-footed safeties. Ben Watson has been highly efficient in the red zone (five targets, four TDs) and is a key part of the offense when New England is in passing mode.
The Pats were gashed for 216 rushing yards and four TDs in their first glance at Miami's Wildcat package a year ago, but Bill Belichick was ready for it the second time around. Using blitzes to clog the lanes, New England held Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to a combined 66 yards in Week 12 of last season. Now with a Week 8 bye to prepare, Belichick is likely to shut down the Wildcat again. While Ronnie is a must-start because he's a safe bet for 16-19 touches, Ricky is best left benched. The Patriots have also allowed a league-low one rushing score all season.
If Belichick contains Ronnie and Ricky, the Fins simply don't match up well with the Pats. Miami is 29th in passing offense, while New England is fifth in pass defense. Chad Henne has "game managed" well since replacing Chad Pennington, but isn't even a desirable QB2...The Dolphins' four-receiver rotation, which may expand to five with rookie Patrick Turner practicing well of late, should be avoided completely. Ted Ginn Jr. has been passed by rookie Brian Hartline on the depth chart, but Hartline saw just one target last week. Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess form an even timeshare.
Kansas City @ Jacksonville
No team has given up more 40+ yard pass plays than the Chiefs, and injuries to both of their free safeties (Jarrad Page - calf, Jon McGraw - thigh) won't help. Mike Sims-Walker is coming off a season-worst nine-yard effort, but is Jacksonville's top big-play threat through the air and opposing free safeties usually shade to his side. The injuries help his matchup...After averaging 98 yards in Weeks 6-7, Torry Holt returned to earth with 17 against the Rams last Sunday. Lacking after-catch ability, he is a poor bet against sure-tackling Chiefs LCB Brandon Flowers.
David Garrard's befuddling inconsistencies continued against the rag-tag Rams secondary. The Chiefs are 28th against the pass and give up nearly two passing TDs a game, but Garrard is only a QB2. It's impossible to know when he'll come to play...With coach Jack Del Rio having stripped Garrard's ability to audible at the line of scrimmage, a run-heavy game plan is coming. Maurice Jones-Drew is a lock for 25 touches against K.C.'s No. 26 run defense...The light isn't flipping on for Marcedes Lewis. He's averaging two grabs for 13 yards in his last three games.
Chris Johnson's 239-yard, two-TD Week 8 wasn't the first time Jacksonville has been gashed by a speed back. With one of the league's slowest front sevens, the Jags can't contain track stars like Chiefs Week 9 starter Jamaal Charles, who's been studying film of C.J. Chiefs coach Todd Haley indicated that Charles will rarely come off the field with Larry Johnson out, praising Charles' blitz-pickup skills. He's a strong candidate for 20 touches and a high-upside RB2...Kolby Smith, already lacking NFL-caliber talent, will be rusty coming off PUP. He's not a fantasy option.
Week 9 should kick off a strong run for Matt Cassel. He gets back LT Branden Albert (ankle) and C Rudy Niswanger (knee), and won't have to watch Larry Johnson kick up dust on 20 carries a game. Extremely vulnerable to the pass, the Jags made Vince Young look good in his first 2009 start last week and bring no pressure (NFL-low five sacks). Consider Cassel an elite QB2...Dwayne Bowe will match up mostly with rookie RCB Derek Cox, but it doesn't matter because all of the Jaguars' DBs are burnable. Fill-in LCB Reggie Nelson can't tackle, and Bowe is a beast after the catch.
Washington @ Atlanta
You wouldn't know it by their image and coach's day-to-day job security, but the Skins have a top-five defense. Albert Haynesworth has been a difference maker inside, and Washington is second against the pass. Matt Ryan can beat up on tough opponents -- especially at the Georgia Dome -- but he and Roddy White are Atlanta's only passing-game members definitely worth using...The Skins are highly effective at defending tight ends. Since Kevin Boss dropped a fluky 62 yards on them in Week 1, the Skins haven't allowed a TE to top 30 yards all year. Tony Gonzalez is a risk.
While he has a fairly tough matchup against Redskins LCB Carlos Rogers, White is on a tear with at least one score in each of his last four games and an average of 108 yards per week. The Saints' Jabari Greer is playing as well as any NFL corner, but White roasted him for a 70-yard TD bomb and several other catches on Monday Night Football...Michael Turner's burst is officially back. Consistently blowing into the second level last week, he racked up a season-best 151 yards and a touchdown against a Saints defense that was sixth against the run entering the game.
There's little hope for Jason Campbell with Skins LT Stephon Heyer facing All-Pro John Abraham on a hyperextended knee. A matchup with Atlanta's leaky back end seems favorable, but the Falcons' fantasy defense may be more productive. Campbell will struggle to find Santana Moss deep with little time to throw...Fred Davis is worth a look if you have bye-week TE woes. Atlanta is soft over the middle as Jeremy Shockey and Marques Colston proved (combined 11-157-1 in Week 8), and Davis had 78 yards and a TD in his last outing. He could be the go-to guy if Washington falls behind early.
Devin Thomas has captured the Skins' full-time flanker job and showed promise with 45 yards and a TD before the Week 8 bye. He'll run more slant and underneath routes than Moss, and is a fair bet to lead the team in receiving. The talent is there, and Thomas will square off with easily-beaten Falcons LCBs Brent Grimes and Tye Hill...Perhaps the off week did Clinton Portis some good. He lacked any hint of explosiveness in the first seven games and battled a multitude of injuries, but at least now faces an Atlanta run defense that surrenders 4.5 yards per carry.
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[SIZE=+1]4:05PM ET Games[/SIZE]
Carolina @ New Orleans
Carolina's offense works only when the run game clicks. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have combined for 19.5 rush attempts a game in the Panthers' losses compared to 38.3 in their wins. With Jake Delhomme relegated to a "game manager" role, the Panthers will certainly be out to establish the run early. Good news: New Orleans' previously-tough run defense is way weaker without DT Sedrick Ellis (MCL sprain), as Michael Turner showed on Monday night. Bad news: If Carolina doesn't set the tone on the ground, the Saints could easily jump out to a big early lead, forcing Delhomme to throw and killing the Panthers' offensive productivity.
Steve Smith is a quality WR2 in a domed game that could produce more passing by Carolina than John Fox would prefer. While every Saints DB is playing well, Smith will see RCB Tracy Porter in primary coverage. He is the weaker of New Orleans' two corners and gets safety help from Darren Sharper, who is a gambler. Teams haven't stopped throwing away from Sharper despite his NFL-high seven picks...Dwayne Jarrett gets another start in place of Muhsin Muhammad (knee), but caught just two passes for 22 yards last week and continues to show no separation skills.
Carolina has the No. 1 pass defense, but Sean Payton doesn't shy from testing tough secondaries. Still, expect a balanced attack considering the Panthers' differential in run defense (No. 24 overall, 4.5 YPC against, one rushing TD allowed per game). If you're strapped for RB options with six teams on byes, consider using Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell together. Their touch totals are roughly the same every week, and both are effective red-zone runners...The Panthers can lock down wideouts, but struggle badly against tight ends. As usual, Jeremy Shockey is a strong TE1.
Despite a tough matchup, Marques Colston is a top-five WR play. Throwing out the Darrelle Revis matchup in Week 4, Colston has scored in all three of his games at the Superdome while averaging six catches for 94 yards...Likewise, Drew Brees averages 345 yards and four TDs in home games not against the Jets...After Colston, New Orleans' wideouts remain shaky plays every week. Slot man Lance Moore is in a walking boot this week, Robert Meachem hasn't topped two catches in a game all year, and Devery Henderson is sitting on one TD for 2009.
Detroit @ Seattle
Calvin Johnson's (knee) long-awaited return will give the entire Lions offense a jolt. Defenses must dedicate at least two defenders to Johnson's side, preventing "eight in the box" for Kevin Smith and freeing up the rest of the field. Johnson impressed on the practice field this week and should be near 100 percent against a Seattle secondary that Tony Romo ripped up for three TDs last week. In coverage, Johnson will likely see the same left cornerback combo of Marcus Trufant and Josh Wilson that Miles Austin worked over for five catches, 61 yards, and a touchdown last Sunday.
Maybe it should've been considering Smith's 3.1 YPC, but Maurice Morris' 15-touch insertion in Week 8 was not due to Smith's performance. Smith came out of the game with a minor shoulder tweak. He'll return this week with a feature-back job to play for. Use Smith against Seattle's middling run defense… Coach Jim Schwartz confirmed that Morris will resume his "complementary" role...Lions rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew is averaging 25 yards a week, while No. 2 receiver Bryant Johnson is getting 36. Neither is a fantasy option despite the extra attention Calvin will command.
Sunday's Qwest Field forecast (50-degree temps, 8MPH winds, 30% chance of showers) shouldn't discourage passing, and Matt Hasselbeck faces a Lions defense that's given up the most passing TDs (18) in the NFC. While Hasselbeck's protection remains a concern with LT Sean Locklear (ankle) still not back, Detroit doesn't generate much pass rush (just over two sacks a game) and Lions top end Dewayne White continues to battle hamstring trouble. Consider Hasselbeck a mid-level TE1 in a very favorable matchup. This could be a surprisingly high-scoring, pass-heavy game.
You wouldn't know from their contracts or career numbers, but Nate Burleson is better than T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Burleson plays with more urgency, is a far superior vertical threat, and is out-producing Housh in every category. Both are worth fantasy use against an awful Lions secondary, but Burleson is the "must-start"...Edgerrin James's release muddles Seattle's backfield. Julius Jones remains the starter, but Justin Forsett is easily the more productive per-play back. While his touches will increase, Forsett isn't a FLEX play until his role becomes consistent...Consider slumping John Carlson a TE2 going forward.
[SIZE=+1]4:15PM ET Games[/SIZE]
Tennessee @ San Francisco
Getting back Pro Bowl CB Cortland Finnegan (hamstring) and nickel back Vincent Fuller (arm) in Week 8 rejuvenated Tennessee's pass defense. The Titans held David Garrard to 139 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and picked him off twice for their first win of 2009. Alex Smith is a quality play in two-QB leagues, but nothing more...Promising development for Michael Crabtree: he's now playing split end, slot, and flanker. An every-down receiver despite being just three weeks removed from his seemingly never-ending holdout, Crabtree is an every-week WR3. The TDs will come.
Vernon Davis leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns. He's the No. 1 fantasy TE following Owen Daniels' season-ending ACL tear...Josh Morgan started last Sunday, but played 27 snaps to Isaac Bruce's 41 and Crabtree's 50. Morgan and Bruce are barely worth shallow-league roster spots...The Titans' run defense started hot, but is getting walloped lately. They've fallen to No. 18 in the league after allowing Laurence Maroney and Maurice Jones-Drew to combine for three TDs and 300 yards on 24 carries (12.5 YPC) in the last two games. Start Frank Gore.
The Titans unsurprisingly emerged from their bye with a run-first mindset in Week 8, racking up 49 carries and passing just 18 times. Despite spring upgrades at receiver and tight end, this is exactly how Tennessee should've approached the season. The offensive line is a mauling unit, the feature back is the most explosive skill player in the league, and the new quarterback keeps opponents on their toes because Vince Young is always a threat to scramble. Despite facing San Francisco's No. 2 overall run defense, Chris Johnson should see 20+ touches. He can never be benched.
However, Young's installation bodes very poorly for the Titans' wideouts. Nate Washington scored a touchdown in V.Y.'s 2009 debut, but mostly acted as a decoy while Kenny Britt had one grab for seven yards and Justin Gage caught three balls. The receiver rotation and a pass-later mindset will make Tennessee WRs weak plays in every week going forward...The Titans also use a timeshare at tight end, killing the fantasy value of Scaife, Alge Crumper, and rookie Jared Cook.
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San Diego @ NY Giants
The Giants should end up with 10+ wins despite all the criticism they've faced, but Eli Manning's plant-foot injury is killing his accuracy. His TD to INT ratio is 3:6 in his last three games, and he's completing an awful 49.5% of his passes over that span. He's a poor play against San Diego's top-six pass defense...New York would be smart to employ a run-first game plan in this matchup. Brandon Jacobs is hot with a 4.88 YPC average since Week 5, and the Bolts are porous up front (No. 27 run defense, one rushing TD allowed per game). Ahmad Bradshaw is a worthwhile FLEX.
Hakeem Nicks gets the nod if you're looking for a Giants wideout to use. While Steve Smith faces sure-tackling DBs Quentin Jammer (outside) and Steve Gregory (in the slot), Nicks will square off with Antonio Cromartie for much of the day. Cromartie struggles against physical WRs like Nicks. Nicks has likely also passed Mario Manningham on the depth chart. Mario figures to return from his shoulder injury as a third receiver...The Chargers can't cover tight ends, but Kevin Boss will focus on helping Giants LT David Diehl block Shawne Merriman, rather than run pass routes.
New York's spiraling pass defense won't improve until CB Aaron Ross returns from his hamstring tear. The Giants have given up 12 passing touchdowns (eighth most) and were gashed by the Saints, Cardinals, and Eagles' throw-first offenses in the last three weeks. San Diego is more devoted to the pass than all of the above, ranking fourth in the league in attempts. Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, and Vincent Jackson are elite fantasy plays with a favorable Meadowlands forecast (only 7-8 MPH winds, mid-50 degree temperatures, and zero chance of precipitation).
While LCB Corey Webster tries to check V-Jax, new Bolts full-time split end Malcom Floyd will see frequent single coverage. Floyd, who captured the job following Chris Chambers' release, will face off with Terrell Thomas. Thomas has been the more beatable of New York's corners, so don't be surprised if the 6'6" Floyd immediately capitalizes on his fantasy promise, which has been a long time coming...If the Chargers smartly go pass heavy, look for Darren Sproles and LaDainian Tomlinson to form an even timeshare. Sproles is a far more effective "spread back."
[SIZE=+1]Sunday Night Football[/SIZE]
Dallas @ Philadelphia
McNabb has rebounded from a befuddling Week 6 loss to Oakland, completing 67% of his passes with four TDs and zero INTs since. Dallas is struggling to stop the pass, ranking 22nd overall with 12 TDs against (eighth most). DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are on fire and the forecast for Lincoln Financial (mid-60s temps, next to wind, zero chance of rain), so McNabb is a must-start...While D-Jax is an every-week WR2, Maclin also as a favorable matchup. He'll mostly square off with Cowboys RCB Mike Jenkins, who struggled against Nate Burleson last week.
Decline was expected in Brian Westbrook's age-30 season, but his productivity hasn't fallen off. His YPC (4.8) is a personal best since 2006, and he's averaged over four catches a game throwing out Week 7, when Westbrook suffered a first-quarter concussion. Medically cleared and showing no ill effects from the injury in practice, Westbrook can now safely be reinstalled as an RB2. He'll lose some work to LeSean McCoy, but is a strong bet to lead Philly's backfield in touches against a Dallas defense that serves up 4.2 yards a carry...Keep Brent Celek rolling. He's fantasy's No. 5 TE.
Cowboys coach Wade Phillips observed "more juice" in Marion Barber's legs on the practice field this week, which isn't surprising. Barber (thigh) has appeared more explosive in the hole over the last two weeks while reclaiming his feature-back job from Tashard Choice in decisive fashion. The Eagles play the run well (No. 12 overall, only 3.7 YPC allowed), but MB3 remains a good bet for a touchdown because he's getting every single goal-line carry...Felix Jones is merely a change-of-pace back/kick returner, and Choice didn't get a touch last week until fourth-quarter garbage time.
Dallas' offense has become a big-play machine since installing Miles Austin as a starter. Only two teams (Green Bay, Philly) have more 40+ yard completions, and seven have more pass plays of 20+. While Philly has a top-ten pass defense, Tony Romo would be difficult to sit with eight TDs (five to Austin) in his last three games and an improving ground attack to account for...Expect another relatively slow game from Jason Witten, who has disappointed all year. He'll block plenty because the Eagles blitz more than anyone...Roy Williams is bench material until he shows something.
[SIZE=+1]Monday Night Football[/SIZE]
Pittsburgh @ Denver
Baltimore gave Pittsburgh a blueprint to beat previously undefeated Denver in Week 8, spreading the Broncos out and picking apart favorable matchups with an up-tempo, no-huddle offense. Denver is very thin at corner behind Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman, so it's surprising that it took so long for opponents to formulate this attack strategy. Pittsburgh has been running the no-huddle spread all year. Despite the Broncos' No. 8 pass defense, No. 8 overall fantasy QB Ben Roethlisberger is a must-start, along with Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes (as a WR3).
It would be a stretch to consider Steelers rookie third receiver Mike Wallace a quality option, but Heath Miller is an every-week play. He'll likely line up in the slot when Pittsburgh gives spread looks. Miller's the No. 6 overall TE in fantasy...Assuming Steelers OC Bruce Arians does employ the pass-first formula (he's been doing it already), Rashard Mendenhall's touch total may take a hit. Pittsburgh should be able to move the ball, however, and Mendenhall is the designated goal-line back. He's a fine bet to score. Willie Parker is virtually no threat to his workload.
The Denver weather (50-degree temps, 8MPH winds, 30% chance of rain) won't strongly hinder passing, but Kyle Orton has an unfavorable matchup. Pittsburgh is fourth in sacks, gives up just 6.4 YPA (eighth lowest), and has surrendered only nine passing TDs in seven games. It doesn't help that Broncos RT Ryan Harris, a terrific pass blocker, is out with two dislocated toes. LaMarr Woodley will now go against former undrafted free agent Tyler Polumbus in a mismatch...Eddie Royal averages 23 receiving yards a game and is only a return-yardage league option...While Brandon Marshall is an every-week play despite his slow Week 7, Tony Scheffler isn't even a solid TE2.
The Broncos' backfield situation requires weekly monitoring, but some roles seem to have been established. Moreno is the new starter (he's started both of Denver's two games since Correll Buckhalter's return from an ankle sprain) and slight favorite for goal-line carries. The first-round pick scored Denver's only TD in their last game, executing from a yard out in the third quarter. The week-to-week touch split is inconsistent, but Buckhalter is currently being used more in the passing game. Either way, both Broncos are RBs are poor options against Pittsburgh's No. 1 run defense.