Matchups: Now or Never for DMC
Bye weeks have arrived, necessitating the search for one-game gems and "fallback" plans. You've come to the right place if you're in a bind. Let's cut the small talk and get to the matchups.
Editor's Note: Rotoworld's NFL Season Pass is being offered for free this week. Check it out, and you won't go away unsatisfied.
[SIZE=+1]1:00PM ET Games[/SIZE]
Detroit @ Chicago
Jay Cutler's tear (five TDs, 485 yards on 74% completions since Week 1) will continue through a Lions defense ranked 30th against the pass with a league-most 10 touchdowns allowed. The resilient quarterback has favorable matchups three out of the next four weeks...Johnny Knox is getting the most fantasy attention and scored a Week 3 touchdown, but Earl Bennett and Devin Hester remain Chicago's starting wideouts with Knox rotating in. Still, the speedy rookie and Bennett are very viable WR3s this week, while Hester is a legitimate top-20 fantasy option as Detroit plays musical chairs at cornerback. Will James is now the starting right corner (likely to face Knox/Bennett) with slow-of-foot Anthony Henry at LCB (likely going against Hester).
Similar to Ryan Grant last year, Matt Forte's quickness has been derailed by a lost preseason due to a hamstring injury. What should prevent Forte from having a down year like Grant's is his combo of receiving ability, superior talent, and Week 5 bye (Grant's was in Week 8). Chicago will move the ball easily Sunday, Forte will get goal-line carries, and he'll rest for the following two weeks...Greg Olsen is an every-week start again after a 5-44-1 Week 3 effort. Going forward, Knox and Hester's development will keep opponents from double teaming Olsen as he was in the first two games.
Detroit snapped its 19-game losing streak in Week 3, but Sunday will be a long one for Matthew Stafford. Chicago has found the right mix in the secondary with speedster Danieal Manning at free safety and Zackary Bowman replacing Nathan Vasher at right corner. Their YPA against (6.2) is tied for third best in the NFC, the Bears' nine sacks are second, and they've only surrendered three passing scores. Don't expect Bryant Johnson to repeat his fluky Week 3 (4-73-1).
The Lions become far easier to defend with Kevin Smith (shoulder) out. Maurice Morris and sixth-round pick Aaron Brown, who are next on the depth chart, have averaged just 2.5 YPC on 20 combined carries off the bench, and neither is remotely as versatile as Smith. Calvin Johnson had 94 yards and a touchdown on eight catches in his last meeting with Bears LCB Charles Tillman and his talent is impossible to bench, but another slow game is quite possible.
Seattle @ Indianapolis
Arizona ran its nickel defense from start to finish in Week 3, but Peyton Manning still shredded the unit for 379 yards and four touchdowns. It's fair to question whether Seattle has a prayer in this one. The Seahawks don't have the secondary depth the Cardinals do, are likely still down LCB Josh Wilson (high ankle sprain) after giving up three passing TDs and 247 yards to Jay Cutler last Sunday, and RCB Ken Lucas is dealing with an aggravated groin strain...The DB shortage makes Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark harder to double team, and explosive Pierre Garcon is a legitimate bye-week WR3.
Indy's backfield remains unpredictable in terms of yardage, but we do know Joseph Addai's starting job is not at immediate risk, and he is the favorite for red-zone work. Donald Brown has dangerous wheels, but struggles in short yardage and was pulled after failing to move the pile on a carry from five yards out last week. Addai executed for the TD on a quick pass the next play. Seattle's run defense will improve with MLB Lofa Tatupu (hamstring) back and DT Brandon Mebane's calf injury behind him, limiting the upside of both Colts runners. Addai is the pick if you want touchdowns.
After generating just 261 yards on 44 attempts (5.9 YPA) in Week 3, Seneca Wallace gets another start with Matt Hasselbeck's rib still fractured. Wallace is hurting T.J. Houshmandzadeh (4-35 against the Bears) and Indianapolis' sure-tackling defensive backs will again keep Housh from getting yards after catch...Nate Burleson continues to tease with two strong games out of three, but the Colts won't let him get free deep. Burleson is nothing more than a desperation WR3 play.
Look for John Carlson to rebound from his three-catch, 28-yard Week 3. Carlson has 12 grabs in his other two games and won't have to stay on the line to block as much with Colts RE Dwight Freeney out due to a quads strain...Justin Forsett appeared to pass Edgerrin James on Seattle's depth chart with 11 touches in Week 2, but Julius Jones resumed feature back duties last Sunday. If the Seahawks fall behind big quickly as we expect, however, none of their runners will produce.
Tennessee @ Jacksonville
The Titans' pass defense ranks 28th and has served up the third most plays of 20+ yards in the league through three weeks. Making matters worse, nickel back Vincent Fuller is out 4-6 weeks with a broken arm and top CB Cortland Finnegan is battling a hamstring pull. Expect Mike Sims-Walker, the Jags' top big-play receiver, to stay hot after dropping 6-106-1 and 6-81 lines on the Cardinals and Texans...Despite the favorable matchup, Torry Holt remains bench material after producing 122 yards and no TDs over that span despite 77 pass attempts from David Garrard.
Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging 24 touches a game in his first season as a featured back, making him impossible to sit even against a Tennessee run defense that has stoned Willie Parker (13-19), Steve Slaton (17-24), and Thomas Jones (14-20). Jags rookie offensive tackles Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton are getting better by the week (Monroe held Mario Williams sack-less last Sunday) and the rest of the line is built to run block. MoJo is coming off his best game of '09.
The Titans will stick with him, but Kerry Collins isn't playing like a QB that should be collecting $7 million a year. He's thrown four picks, owns a 6.0 YPA (24th in the NFL), and is completing 55.2% of his passes (28th). But as we witnessed with Kurt Warner in Week 2, Jacksonville's secondary is a remedy for quarterback struggles. The Jags are dead last against the pass, have given up six passing TDs (second most in the AFC), and allow a league-worst 77.2 completion rate. This should be a high-scoring game. Justin Gage and Nate Washington are both quality WR3s.
Brad Morgan pointed out in his must-read Red Zone Report that LenDale White is again vulturing significant work inside the opposing 20-yard line. White is the Titans' goal-line back for sure, but it's worth noting that all five of his Week 3 red-zone carries came successively on a single possession. While LenDale may finish the season with 7-10 touchdowns simply because of his role, Chris Johnson has clearly separated himself in the ex-committee. He has 64 touches on the year compared to LenDale's 22 and should have no trouble blowing through the Jaguars' middling run defense.
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NY Giants @ Kansas City
The Giants' use of Corey Webster as a "shadow" corner claimed another victim in Week 3, with Antonio Bryant managing one catch for six yards. Dwayne Bowe isn't 100 percent coming off an in-practice hamstring strain and should be benched even if he's active...The rest of Kansas City's receiver corps remains hit or miss. The Chiefs started in a three-wideout set of Terrance Copper, Bobby Wade, and Mark Bradley last week, and none of them caught more than four balls. Fantasy consistency won't arrive at the position anytime soon.
The Giants' Week 3 suffocation of Derrick Ward (five rushes, two yards) vaulted their run defense back into the top 20, and it will keep moving up. Larry Johnson (2.5 YPC, 0 TDs so far) isn't even a replacement-level back anymore, and Jamaal Charles' role is a week-to-week tossup...Matt Cassel's two Week 3 touchdowns were fluky considering they came on an ugly 90-yard passing day. New York's fire-zone blitzes will terrorize Kansas City's front five, just as Philadelphia's did.
Averaging just 3.4 yards per carry (it was 4.9 at this time last year), Brandon Jacobs has lacked his usual first-step burst through three games. A likely cure is impending matchups with K.C. and Oakland. The Chiefs have yielded five rushing TDs (third most in the NFL) and haven't found the right mix on the defensive line, instead opting for an unproductive six-man rotation. Kansas City let the Brian Westbrook-less Eagles go for two TDs and 93 yards on the ground last week. It doesn't hurt Jacobs' cause that sparkplug No. 2 back Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) is less than 100 percent.
Steve Smith has emerged as the Giants' No. 1 receiver with a scintillating weekly average of eight grabs for 93 yards and a touchdown. He's shown in each of the Giants' three games that he can beat man coverage and will see a lot of it Sunday from coordinator Clancy Pendergast's defense. Smith is certainly an every-week play...Don't expect Kevin Boss to get it together soon. He simply blocks too much...First-round pick Hakeem Nicks (foot) isn't 100 percent yet, but he'll cut into Mario Manningham's snaps soon enough. Sell high on Manningham after this one if he produces.
Tampa Bay @ Washington
New Bucs starter Josh Johnson oozes talent. He was a 70-percent passer at the University of San Diego, runs in the 4.4 range, and has adequate arm strength. However, he's more likely to be overwhelmed than move Tampa Bay's offense on Sunday; Johnson's made one "real game" appearance since the non-scholarship D-IAA ranks...Look for a ton of underneath passes, keeping Kellen Winslow's value afloat...Outside-the-numbers connections with Antonio Bryant, whose knee still isn't 100%, and slumping Michael Clayton are likely to be few and far between.
Johnson figures to bring the entire offense down until he gets comfortable. Because he'll pose minimal threat in the vertical passing game, the Bucs will be easy to game plan against. That makes Carnell Williams an undesirable RB2 even if Derrick Ward (knee) is inactive. Cadillac is practicing fully again, but isn't over his knee problems and had just three touches in Week 3. This will almost certainly be a low-scoring game, limiting the fantasy upsides of all parties.
The Bucs won't get their secondary together until FS Tanard Jackson (suspension) returns in Week 5. It was against Detroit, but Jason Campbell's confidence should be up as he comes off his best statistical game (340 yards, two TDs) since Week 10 of 2007. He's a fine QB1 if you're dealing with bye-week problems...Jim Zorn made it a point to get Santana Moss involved early in last week's win over Detroit, and it paid dividends with a 10-catch, 178-yard, one-TD outburst. Moss, who definitely hasn't lost a step, now squares off with 34-year-old Bucs RCB Ronde Barber.
Kevin Boss couldn't capitalize on Tampa's safety issues in Week 3 because he's essentially a sixth lineman, but Chris Cooley will. The Bucs have no answer for tight ends that are heavily involved in the passing game. Expect Cooley to be a focal point Sunday after a disappointing three-catch, 38-yard Week 3...Tampa Bay is 31st against the run and gives up 5.2 yards per carry, but it's still difficult to get excited about Clinton Portis. Portis has bone spurs in both ankles, a calf strain, and failed to score or top 79 yards rushing against the Rams and Lions. Clearly, he's nearing the end.
Baltimore @ New England
Despite Willis McGahee's goal-line "vulture" role, Ray Rice is an every-week RB2. The No. 18 overall fantasy back so far, Rice has started each of Baltimore's first three games and has 49 touches to McGahee's 38. The likely absences of Patriots NT Vince Wilfork (ankle) and ILB Jerod Mayo (knee) give the Baltimore backfield a major matchup boost. Play both Rice and McGahee if necessary...Third receiver Kelley Washington (groin) and Todd Heap's (back) injuries may force Baltimore into run-oriented game planning. They'll likely both play, but not at 100 percent.
Bill Belichick re-proved last week his amazing ability to shut down an opponent's hottest player, limiting Tony Gonzalez to one catch for 16 yards. Joe Flacco is next. All of Flacco's numbers (65.4% completions, 8.1 YPA, 32-touchdown pace) are up significantly from last year, as Cam Cameron continues to give him freedom in the passing game. He's not a great bet, though, against a Pats defense that ranks sixth against the pass and will likely get back LCB Jonathan Wilhite (groin).
Week 3 will likely go down as Fred Taylor's best game of the year. While the 21-carry, 105-yard, one-score performance confirmed Taylor as New England's best between-the-tackles runner, this backfield remains matchup-based week to week. Look for Laurence Maroney or Kevin Faulk to lead Pats tailbacks in touches versus Baltimore...New England's tight ends are also to be avoided. Both Chris Baker and Ben Watson have mixed in one good game with two serious clunkers.
Wes Welker (knee) is again a game-day decision, but at least we'll know his status early for the 1ET start. Baltimore hasn't found the right man to cover the slot among Frank Walker and Chris Carr, so Welker figures to be open often if he plays...The NFL's receptions leader through three weeks, Randy Moss is allegedly dealing with a back issue. His 10-catch, 116-yard Week 3 despite the injury, however, has us fairly certain that it's not a serious problem and that Moss will be active on Sunday...The Ravens still have one heck of a run defense, but their pass defense remains mediocre. It's ranked 17th overall with the league's second most 20+ yard passing plays allowed.
Oakland @ Houston
Oakland's Nnamdi Asomugha-led pass defense has Andre Johnson's number. While A.J. remains an every-week starter, the Raiders have held him to a combined three catches for 28 yards in their last two meetings. Matt Schaub has thrown for seven TDs and 657 yards since a Week 1 disaster, but also struggled in last year's Oakland game. Higher-upside options are advised if you have them...Expect Owen Daniels to benefit from the increased attention paid to Johnson outside. Kevin Walter, who proved he's 100 percent with 96 yards in Week 3, is another candidate for a solid day.
Chris Brown's game-losing Week 3 goal-line fumble should cost him touches going forward, no matter what coach Gary Kubiak tells the media. Steve Slaton came on with 113 total yards versus Jacksonville, including runs of 14, 11, 11, and 20 on his last eight carries. With the Oakland run defense getting gashed again (Denver RBs dropped 211 rushing yards on them last game), Slaton is a top-ten fantasy option. Don't be surprised if he stays in for goal-line plays this time around.
Losing the time of possession battle on a weekly basis (their 25:34 average is last in the league), the Raiders have gotten Darren McFadden just 29 touches in the last two games. McFadden's fumbling has played a part, but it's mostly on JaMarcus Russell. If Oakland is going to jumpstart its ground game, this is the week against a Houston club that's dead last against the run and has yielded a league-high eight rushing scores. Look for this game to be fairly close as Oakland's stout pass defense holds Schaub and company in check, increasing McFadden's opportunities.
Zach Miller isn't droppable yet, but Russell is doing everything possible to get his top pass catcher to that point. Miller has just two grabs since his 96-yard Week 1, and Russell has targeted up-and-down rookie Louis Murphy 20 times to Miller's 14. This is a good week for Miller to regain form with the Texans shuffling bodies at strong safety (the position that typically covers tight ends). It appears Bernard Pollard will become Houston's third starting SS of the season Sunday.
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Cincinnati @ Cleveland
There's fantasy "hype" surrounding Braylon Edwards following the insertion of Derek Anderson at quarterback. Theoretically, Anderson's big arm will suit Edwards' deep speed, equating to more yardage. But Edwards has a poor matchup this Sunday. He'll mostly line up across from emerging shutdown CB Leon Hall, who's already blanketed Greg Jennings (0-0), Santonio Holmes (1-18), and Eddie Royal (2-18). Also worth noting: Anderson targeted Edwards three times in the second half last week. Two of them were picked off.
Jamal Lewis "hopes" to return from his hamstring injury, but we'll know for sure that Eric Mangini is sabotaging the organization that canned his protege if Lewis plays ahead of Jerome Harrison on Sunday. Harrison was Cleveland's only remotely effective offensive player against Baltimore in Week 3...The Bengals' fantasy defense is a top-ten play. Coordinator Mike Zimmer's unit is already first in the league in sacks and held Anderson to 138 yards on 24 attempts in their last meeting.
Few Bengals skill players aren't worth a start against the Browns' 30th-ranked defense. But keep in mind that offensive coordinators typically go with run-heavy game plans when facing Cleveland. Only the Rams, Raiders, and Bucs have more carries against, and no team has given up more rushing touchdowns. Don't look now, but Cedric Benson could soar to the top of the NFL rushing ranks after this one. Currently third with 293 yards, Benson needs 58 more than Chris Johnson to move into second Sunday, and 64 more than Adrian Peterson to be first.
We told you not to sweat Carson Palmer's slow Week 1 fantasy effort. He played well in that game, and has since accumulated five touchdowns against typically smothering secondaries (Green Bay, Pittsburgh). He's an every-week starter...Chad Ochocinco will likely face Browns RCB Brandon McDonald in primary coverage and see few double teams because Cleveland will have to put an extra defender "in the box" to stop the run...Don't expect Chris Henry to pick it up soon. Andre Caldwell is clearly the Bengals' third receiver with 14 catches to Henry's three.
[SIZE=+1]4:05PM ET Games[/SIZE]
Buffalo @ Miami
Chad Henne will debut against an unbelievably shorthanded Bills defense. Buffalo is without three starting DBs (RCB Leodis McKelvin, FS Donte Whitner, and SS Bryan Scott), and fill-ins Drayton Florence, rookie Jairus Byrd, and former WR George Wilson will likely be significant downgrades. Consider Henne immediately in two-QB leagues...Expect Bills top CB Terrence McGee to shadow Ted Ginn Jr., leaving Davone Bess man-to-man against Florence. Bess isn't a "starter," but has vastly out-produced supposed first-stringer Greg Camarillo (Bess has 17-140 to Camarillo's 7-44). Henne and Bess also hooked up five times last week, after Chad Pennington's year-ending injury.
Ronnie Brown resumed feature back status in Week 3 (18 carries to Ricky Williams' 8) after it appeared to be a "timeshare" in the first two games. Ricky ran in a fluky garbage-time TD from 14 yards out with 2:54 left in the fourth quarter, but Brown will get virtually all of the scoring chances going forward. While the Bills may gear up to stop the run in Henne's first start, the absences of Whitner and MLB Paul Posluszny (arm) will keep the unit on its heels. Whitner was brilliant at diagnosing run plays and "Poz" was Buffalo's hardest-hitting linebacker. Meanwhile, the Bills' four rushing scores against are the fourth most in the league, and they're yielding 4.4 yards a carry.
Marshawn Lynch's suspension has ended, but the rug won't be pulled out from under Fred Jackson. F-Jax is fourth in the league in rushing yards and has demonstrated the ability to carry a full load. Lynch couldn't even practice during his time away and has to get used to taking hits. Look for 18-22 touches Sunday from Jackson, and only 6-9 for "Beast Mode." Jackson's slashing, pass-catching ways will give the Dolphins' heavy front seven more problems than Lynch's grinding, smashmouth style.
Terrell Owens and Lee Evans have both been major disappointments thus far, combining for just 186 yards and two scores on 13 catches. A leaky Dolphins pass defense may be their quick fix. Supposed Fins No. 1 corner Will Allen was nothing short of obliterated by Vincent Jackson in Week 3. Miami ranks 26th against the pass, and no team is giving up more yards per throw (9.1)...All signs point to Buffalo going pass heavy, at least if we apply logic. As always, Dick Jauron will have something to say about that. Start Trent Edwards at your own risk.
NY Jets @ New Orleans
Getting pressure on Drew Brees is easier said than done. With the quickest release in the game and unrivaled pocket awareness, Brees is virtually impossible to sack. But Rex Ryan's Jets will be out to prove otherwise, likely focusing their efforts on the left side of New Orleans' line. Zach Strief will start for LT Jermon Bushrod (ankle), who had been starting for LT Jammal Brown (hip, groin). The Saints have three ways to combat this: 1) use Jeremy Shockey to "help" block on the weak side of the line; 2) flood the field with wideouts to push defenders back; 3) run the football.
They'll probably do all three. While the scenario would hurt Shockey's production, it bodes well for Marques Colston. You'd think Darrelle Revis will follow Colston all over the field, but among the Jets' CBs (also Lito Sheppard, Dwight Lowery) only Revis has the speed to stay with Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem. Stay away from the Saints' one-trick pony deep threats, but keep Colston going...Pierre Thomas has his featured running role back and figures to see 17-20 carries Sunday, including all goal-line chances...Continue to avoid Lance Moore (hamstring).
Since a surprising 107-yard, two-TD opener, Thomas Jones has been bottled up with an awful 2.5 yards-per-touch average in his last two games. He's an obvious sit against a Saints defense permitting just 3.2 YPC...Leon Washington has 49 touches to Jones' 50 so far, but Washington is a good bet to overtake this backfield in Week 4. Jones is no longer used in the passing game, and the Jets will likely be in pass sets for the majority of Sunday while trying to "keep up" with New Orleans. Washington is a significantly better fantasy bet, especially if you get points for catches.
Jerricho Cotchery remains a target hound, pacing the Jets with 25 through three games. Chansi Stuckey (21) and Dustin Keller (16) are second and third. Don't expect the Jets to score a whole lot in this game, but all of the above are viable fantasy starters. Cotchery is an every-week WR2, while Stuckey and Keller could both benefit from the likely absence of imposing Saints nickel back Malcolm Jenkins (ankle)...Mark Sanchez's Week 4 fantasy potential is limited by a strong New Orleans pass defense. They're first in the league in INTs and seventh best in YPA allowed.
[SIZE=+1]4:15PM ET Games[/SIZE]
Dallas @ Denver
The Broncos' four-deep receiver committee isn't the only thing killing Eddie Royal's numbers; it's his on-field role. Whereas Mike Shanahan used him as a slot man/flanker to capitalize on Royal's brilliant short-to-intermediate route running, new coach Josh McDaniels is employing Royal as strictly an outside split end. Royal has enough speed for the position, but the 5'10/182-pounder lacks the size to be a true deep threat. Royal's matchup with Cowboys RCB Mike Jenkins in this game is favorable, but it's hard to start him until we see evidence of increased usage.
Knowshon Moreno's workload has increased weekly (eight touches in Week 1; 19 in Week 2; 21 in Week 3). Clearly, McDaniels envisions him as a future featured back. Sunday's matchup is favorable for Moreno because the Cowboys are allowing 4.7 yards a carry (seventh worst in the league)...Brandon Marshall still isn't a starter, but is playing all over the field (slot, out wide) as Randy Moss did for McDaniels in New England. His snaps may remain inconsistent, but Marshall's role is growing enough for him to be an every-week WR3 with big late-season upside.
Roy Williams' 75-yard Week 3 game looks decent on paper, but his inability to blow by Panthers late-round rookie Captain Munnerlyn on a first-half "go" route sent up a red flag. With aging CBs Andre' Goodman and Champ Bailey playing well enough for the Broncos' defense to rank second against the pass (with zero TDs allowed), Williams is no more than a WR3...The Broncos don't use Bailey as a "shadow" cover man, so expect him to stay on the left side most of the game and square off with Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin, depending on the Cowboys' formation.
Felix Jones (knee) has been ruled out. The Cowboys fully expect Marion Barber (quadriceps) to return and share the workload with red-hot Tashard Choice. Barber is the higher-upside fantasy play because he'll receive any goal-line opportunities as long as he's healthy, but Choice is the "safe" pick. Expect roughly 15 all-purpose touches for the both of them as the Cowboys struggle to pass...Jason Witten is an every-week starter, but Tony Romo can be benched by fantasy owners with elite QB2s.
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St. Louis @ San Francisco
Donnie Avery was dropped in most leagues after a slow start, but he's worth grabbing again. He'll take over the Rams' No. 1 receiver role, likely replacing Laurent Robinson (fractured fibula) at split end with possession guy Keenan Burton at flanker. Avery is intriguing because he'll see increased targets with Robinson done for the year, and with 4.2 speed is certain to improve on his 6.2 yards-per-catch average...The Packers employed five-linebacker sets to try to stop Steven Jackson last week, but he still totaled 163 yards. S-Jax is the rare talent that produces against eight-man fronts.
Kyle Boller (16-for-31, 164 yards, two TDs) capably relieved Marc Bulger (rotator cuff) last week and will likely start Sunday. Boller has long had happy feet in the pocket, however, and 49ers DC Greg Manusky's unit is dialing up more pressure (six sacks) than last year. Boller figures to throw 30+ times again, but he's barely a QB2 in the matchup...After practicing together on the backup offense throughout camp, Boller showed rapport with TE Daniel Fells (2-35-2) against Green Bay. But Fells remains a third-stringer and worthless in fantasy football until proven otherwise.
Preseason rushing leader Glen Coffee will replace Frank Gore (ankle) against a Rams team that ranks 27th against the run and gave up two rushing TDs to Green Bay in Week 3. While Coffee has struggled (1.8 YPC) off the bench so far, there's a lot to be said for practicing with the first team all week and preparing to be a starter. Kevin Kolb, terrible in past relief efforts, benefited from the same treatment in Philly. The 49ers left Kory Sheets on the practice squad this week, so special teamer Michael Robinson is Coffee's lone backup. Coffee will be an every-down back on Sunday.
I'd never recommend to "chase" points from a previous game, but Vernon Davis has the matchup to stay hot coming off a 96-yard, two-TD effort against Minnesota. Rams SS James Butler, who'd normally see a lot of Davis in coverage, is out with a sprained knee and will be replaced by 2007 undrafted free agent Craig Dahl. Dahl, who wouldn't make most rosters, has torn his ACL twice since entering the league. He'll likely have a very hard time running with Davis down the seams.
[SIZE=+1]Sunday Night Football[/SIZE]
San Diego @ Pittsburgh
The Bolts expect LaDainian Tomlinson (foot) to play, but he won't help in this matchup. 12 carries for 40 yards would be an accomplishment against a Steelers defense surrendering 3.8 YPC with one rushing TD allowed despite not even playing to its potential yet...Darren Sproles is still San Diego's best tailback because his speed and pass-catching ability command defensive attention. LT's lack of first-step burst and inability to turn the corner make him a much easier opponent. The Chargers should've held Tomlinson out through their Week 5 bye. He's not a difference maker.
Vincent Jackson is. The No. 2 fantasy WR behind only Reggie Wayne so far, Jackson has put all his once-developmental tools together in a contract year. He'll primarily square off with Steelers LCB Ike Taylor on Sunday. Taylor has the size and usually plays physical enough to slow V-Jax down, but this year all bets are off...Antonio Gates is sitting on zero scores, but that could change against the Troy Polamalu-less Steelers. Gates and Jackson are San Diego's best bets for touchdowns...Malcom Floyd is a close third. We're still campaigning for him to start over Chris Chambers.
Willie Parker (turf toe) appears doubtful for SNF. If he's inactive, Rashard Mendenhall will likely start and rotate with Mewelde Moore. Moore is the more effective back and could take over as the game wears on, making this a fantasy situation to avoid. The Bolts' run defense isn't good (26th in the NFL, 4 rushing TDs against), but Mendenhall isn't either...Expect a solid peformance from Heath Miller, who shouldn't have to stay in and block as often with Chargers ROLB Shawne Merriman's (groin) status in doubt. Miller could be Big Ben's go-to option in the red zone.
Ben Roethlisberger, coming off another 30+ pass attempts game, is the No. 9 fantasy QB through three weeks. It's not hard to imagine the Steelers going pass-heavy yet again if Parker is out, especially if Mendenhall starts slowly and coordinator Bruce Arians leans toward a spread attack. Arians has the arsenal to pull it off with speedy rookie Mike Wallace (7-102 in Week 3) coming on. It should be a definite consideration for Arians with Chargers nickel back Antoine Cason popping up on Thursday's injury report with a groin problem. Cason is just one of three cornerbacks on San Diego's roster. This is a matchup Wallace, Hines Ward, and Santonio Holmes can exploit.
[SIZE=+1]Monday Night Football[/SIZE]
Green Bay @ Minnesota
It's natural to see the high-powered offenses of Green Bay and Minnesota on paper and project a high-scoring affair. I don't expect it. The Packers' offensive line circus wasn't a liability against hapless St. Louis last week, but the Vikings have more talent at every defensive position. RE Jared Allen is a threat for multiple sacks no matter who lines up at left tackle for Green Bay. With the Vikes' secondary also playing at an extremely high level (fourth in pass defense, 8 sacks, 4 INTs), consider sitting Aaron Rodgers if you have an Eli Manning or Carson Palmer backing him up.
The Vikings' defense is also permitting just 3.4 yards per carry and has not allowed a rushing touchdown through three games. Ryan Grant's YPC average is down from last year's (3.9 in '08, 3.7 in '09), and he is a very risky play with Minnesota's powerful four-man front likely to bulldoze Green Bay's undersized front five...Greg Jennings is the best fantasy play on the Green Bay offense this week. The Vikings probably won't play the Antoine Winfield "shadow" game against him with Donald Driver red hot (14-233-2 to Jennings' 8-209-1) on the opposite side. If the Packers are going to score an offensive TD Monday night, Jennings is a strong bet to be the recipient.
Brett Favre vs. his former team is the storyline, but there won't be too much pressure on him until his Green Bay return in Week 8. At the Metrodome Monday night, the Vikings will surely invoke a run-first game plan, using Adrian Peterson to set up the pass. Still, Favre is poised to outperform his old understudy Rodgers against a Packers secondary that's let up six passing TDs (tied for fifth most in the league) and 10 plays of 20+ yards (eighth most). Expect decent fantasy games from Favre and Bernard Berrian, whose speed is too much for Packers RCB Al Harris to handle.
To adjust after losing multiple safeties (Atari Bigby, Aaron Rouse), the Packers have implemented a five-linebacker system geared towards stopping the run. But it didn't work against St. Louis in Week 3 (Steven Jackson totaled 163 yards), and probably won't halt Peterson either. Look for 24 carries on MNF...Hopefully you've given up on Visanthe Shiancoe by now. He has just 49 yards on six catches through three games, and is fifth on his team in targets. In addition to Berrian (17), Sidney Rice (16), Percy Harvin (18), and Chester Taylor (18) are all getting more looks.