A terrible week last week, going just 1-5, to end the regular season. That dropped the season record to 58-45-5. Luckily the first sixteen weeks had been solid and the poor showing last week still leaves me with a 56% winning percentage.
A quick look back over the last two years shows some amazing consistency. Last year, during the regular season, I finished 59-43 58% and this year, 58-45 and 56%. Last year there were 102 plays and this year 103 plays (minus the ties). The two year record is now 117-88 57%. The goal for me each year is 55% winners and produce a profit of +20% or better. Hopefully the playoffs will produce some more profit and I can finish the season strong.
All side opinions went 10-6 last week and are now 134-111-9 55% over the first seventeen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
A few notes about the Wild Card round. When looking at the wildcard round, I think it's important to understand the changes that took place in 1990. Prior to 1990, the two wildcard teams from each conference played each other in the "wildcard round." But, when the NFL added one more wildcard team in 1990, that produced a first place team playing a wildcard team in the "divisional round." The years previous to this saw just wildcard teams playing each other. And last year, another segment was added because of the extra division created in each conference. This produced two playoff games in each conference with each divisional winner playing a wildcard team. Now, some might say the wildcard version 2004 Tennessee Titans are better than the divisional winning 2004 Baltimore Ravens, but the Ravens do get the home game. But, it can be debated on who is better.
What's important to know is since 1990, when divisional winners started playing wildcard teams, the home teams have never failed to produce at least a .500 record SU, and other than two years of going 2-2 SU (1991 & 1992), they have gone 3-1 SU in 10 years and 4-0 SU one other year. So, in the 13 years, only two years have produced .500 years and 11 of 13 years have seen the home teams win at least three of the four games played.
Naturally all that is important is who covers the spread, but I thought the SU numbers were important this year seeing three of the four teams are laying three or less points or getting points. Prior to last year, we still had a wildcard team playing a wildcard team, which really isn't representative of what is happening now. So, I looked at only divisional winners playing wildcard teams in the first round. Those home teams went 16-11-1 against the spread and 20-8 SU. If the line was three or less or our home team was a dog, they went 4-2 against the spread and 5-1 SU.
The bottom line here is home teams dominate this round and trying to predict which road team will win SU is really asking for trouble. Over the previous 20 years, there have only been four years (20%) that the road teams have covered more games than the home team in this round, including covering three of four last year. Six times over the last 20 years, have more than one team in this round been favored by three or less (or dogs). During those six years, the road team has never covered more times than the home team. Three times the home team went 1-1, one time 1-0-1, one time 2-0 and one time 4-0. Again, the home teams are the safe bets here and looking at too many road teams could get you in trouble. Remember, history repeats itself more than you might think or like. Finally, home dogs are now 7-0 in this round. On to the games.
Tennessee -1.5 BALTIMORE 39.5
Baltimore has now won five straight games against Tennessee. They won last year's game 13-12 but were out gained 402-199 yards and 5.4-3.6 yppl. For the season, Baltimore is averaging 4.8 ypr against 4.3 ypr but only 4.9 yps against 5.9 yps. During their last five games, they are averaging 5.5 yps against 6.2 yps so the seasonal numbers also include Kyle Boller's poor numbers. On defense, Baltimore has been very solid, allowing just 3.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 4.8 yps against 5.8 yps. For Tennessee, they still don't run the ball well but they continue to throw the ball extremely well, averaging 3.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 7.4 yps against 6.0 yps for the season. On defense, Tennessee has played well against the run, but that may be more of a product of teams throwing when behind. Tennessee allowed teams to average 3.8 ypr against 4.0 ypr but 6.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Tennessee has allowed two teams to rush for 100+ yards this year. They allowed New England and Indianapolis, when they played Indy in Tennessee. They lost both of those games 30-38 and 27-29. What are the chances that Baltimore gets 100+ yards this week? Well, they have rushed for 100+ yards in every game this year since week two. Granted those two teams throw the ball much better than Baltimore, but Baltimore has a chance if they can get their rushing yards. This game, like all playoff games, comes down to turnovers. That would seem to favor Tennessee with Steve McNair versus Anthony Wright. But, Baltimore hasn't had more turnovers at home since their game against Kansas City, which also included Kyle Boller. Their defense has done a great job of creating turnovers at home. When Tennessee has committed more turnovers than their opponents, on the road, they have lost this year. I think the side here is hard to predict. Tennessee is the better team with the better quarterback, but the situations favor both teams, making the side a pass for me. Tennessee qualifies in a playoff situation, which is 42-16-0 but that situation, up to now, has always played the home team, so it's tough to figure out how a road team will react in this situation. Baltimore has only allowed 10 points over their last two games, but teams allowing 20 or fewer points over their last two games, are actually pointspread losers in the playoffs. Baltimore qualifies in a negative situation based on that premise, which is 44-18-2 and plays against Baltimore here. But, teams coming off a win of 10 or more points are poor propositions and Tennessee qualifies in a negative situation based on that, which is 34-11-3 and plays against Tennessee here. Baltimore also qualifies in a turnover situation, which indicates the turnovers stand a good chance to go their way in this game. That situation, which is a subset of my regular season turnover table, is 24-7-0 in the playoffs. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which works very well in the playoffs. The play I like the best here is the over. The average points scored in a NFL game this year is 42 points and this total is lower than 40 points, which means these two teams don't have to even score the average points in a game. Yes, the Baltimore defense is very good and can be stingy at home, but Tennessee seems to be able to score against anybody they play. Tennessee has played solid defensive teams New England, Buffalo and Tampa Bay this year and averaged 30+ points. They also tend to allow teams to score against them and even if they run away with this game, they will allow Baltimore to score at least 17 points in this game. Tennessee has allowed at least 13 points in every road game this year and Baltimore has scored 44, 44, 31 and 13 points at home with Anthony Wright at quarterback. Yes, I realize the defense has accounted for some of those points but they will get their points at home. Situations go both ways but it'll take points to beat Tennessee and Brian Billick realizes that. BALTIMORE 27 TENNESSEE 24
CAROLINA -3 Dallas 34
Yet another game where the situations favor both teams, making the side here hard to predict. Carolina likes to run the ball, but their rushing offense has been horrible as of late, averaging just 3.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games. Part of that is because Stephen Davis has been out. For the season, they are averaging just 4.0 ypr against 4.2 ypr but 6.3 yps against 6.1 yps. The defense is allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl and above average against both, the run and the pass. For Dallas, their offense continues to struggle, averaging just 4.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl and below average against both, the run and the pass. The defense has been solid, allowing just 4.3 yppl against 4.9 yppl. Dallas has allowed just 16 points over their last two games but again, teams allowing fewer than 20 points over their last two games are losing propositions and they qualify in a negative situation based on that premise, which is 44-18-2. Carolina qualifies in a divisional winner versus wildcard team situation, which is 40-12-1 and like I have been saying all year long, teams that don't cover the spread against teams who do cover the spread, are the way to go. Carolina qualifies in a situation based on that premise, which is 6-0 in the playoffs. But, Carolina is coming off a 10 point or greater win and they qualify in a situation that plays against those teams, which is 34-11-3. Once again, we have situations going both ways. I just find it hard to believe Quincy Carter can win a big road game. The Carolina defense isn't great but it is above average, and when Dallas has faced above average defenses on the road this year, they were shutout at Tampa Bay, 0-16, and shutout at New England, 0-12. Against better than average passing teams, Dallas has allowed 16 points (TB), 12 points (NE), 20 points (Carolina) and 40 points (Miami). That averages out to around 22 points or a median of about 18 points. Against good defenses as a whole, Dallas was shutout twice, as mentioned, and scored 24 against Carolina and 21 against Miami. That averages to around 10 points. I just don't see Dallas getting more than 10 points in this game. Carolina has scored at least 15 points in every home game this year. I like their chances to get the cover. CAROLNA 20 DALLAS 10
GREEN BAY -7.5 Seattle 44.5
Never happy when I go 1-5, like I did last week. But, that one win was Arizona and not only did they cover but they won the game straight up. If you've been reading my write-ups for the last nine years, you know I bleed Green & Gold, and seeing the Vikings lose and GB win last week was like being in heaven. And it was even better sitting in a Vikings bar and listening to the Vikings fans rub it in for most of the second half. Man, did that bar get quiet and clear out fast. That's almost as good as in 1998 when Gary Anderson missed the only field goal of the season for the Vikings in the Championship game. Actually, for me, it was even better because it benefited the Packers. As for this game, it will be interesting to see how the Packers play. This is what you need to know and watch for with GB. They have dramatically improved their defense over the second half of the season. Over their last five games, GB is allowing just 3.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.4 ypr. Now, you say they haven't played anybody over their last five games. Well, that is partly true because they played Detroit, Chicago, San Diego, Oakland and then Denver's "B" squad. But, you need to recognize SD averages 5.1 ypr this year against teams allowing just 4.3 ypr. They held SD to 3.3 ypr. The Packers picked up Grady Jackson prior to the Philadelphia game and their defense has improved dramatically since then. During that same time span since Jackson joined the Packers, they haven't allowed a team to average better than 3.5 ypr at home. That includes playing against Philly and last week against Denver. Even though it was Denver's "B" squad, the Broncos have seemingly been able to run on anybody, with anybody over the years. The point is it looks like their rush defense has become much more solid. There is still some doubt because they haven't played too many teams that can challenge them both, with the pass and the run. They have played SF limited them to 3.5 ypr and 3.5 yps. I've heard people say the Packers lost at home in the playoffs last year and it won't be any different this time around. Those people clearly haven't watched the Packers over the last two years. First, last year Favre stated this team wasn't that good but he has said this year this team has a chance to do something. Last year's team was allowing 4.8 ypr, while this year's team is allowing just 4.1 ypr, just 3.9 ypr since Jackson joined the team and just 3.1 ypr at home since Jackson joined the team. Last year's team was missing key defensive personnel and two starting offensive lineman. This year's team is relatively healthy, with the exception of Joe Johnson, who was a mistake and Mike McKenzie, who should play but is battling turf toe. This is a much different team this year. The Packers are averaging 5.0 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 6.6 yps against 5.9 yps, while allowing 4.9 yppl against 5.1 yppl, being above average against both, the run and the pass. For Seattle, they are averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 6.4 yps against 5.9 yps. The defense has allowed just 3.9 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 5.7 yps against 5.7 yps. Much has also been made about Seattle's road woes but I think that is a little misleading. They lost badly here in Green Bay and at Minnesota, but they were competitive in all of their other games and actually looked very good last week in San Francisco and played the Rams tough in St. Louis a few weeks ago. GB has allowed only 10 points over the last two weeks but, again, that's not a positive and the Packers qualify in a negative situation based on that, which is 44-18-2 and plays against them here. This is also Seattle's first playoff game in at least three years and teams who haven't played in the playoffs for at least three years are 28-7 if their opponent isn't in the same situation. GB qualifies in a divisional winner versus wildcard situation, but that situation isn't has good if our play on team (GB) has allowed 20 or less points in their last two games. Final numbers favor GB by seven points (all games) and by 8.5 points (last five games) so the line seems to be pretty accurate. I originally liked the over in this game but will pass on that for a couple of reasons. First, the weather should be in the 20's and that will probably hinder any long passes, which will obviously create potentially longer scoring drives. Second, assuming the Packers are ahead, Mike Sherman has openly stated he looks to start running the ball with about seven minutes left in the game to try and run the clock out. With the Packers standing a good chance to be ahead, that could hurt a total of 44 if you're looking to play it over. And third, since Jackson has joined the Packers, they haven't allowed a team gain more than 298 yards, with the exception of SD, who gained 424 yards. Again, they certainly haven't played the likes of Seattle, Kansas City and Minnesota during that time, so it remains to be seen how much their defense has improved. But, Sherman likes to run the ball to protect the defense as well, and that has translated into allowing just 14 points per game since Jackson joined the team. When Seattle has allowed at least 100 yards rushing on the road, they have allowed at least 27 points. The Packers are averaging around 180 yards per game at home, including 159 against Seattle in the first meeting. Again, the situations go both ways, but lean towards Seattle and I think this line might be a little too high, despite the numbers showing it to be accurate. The real test here is if GB can hold down a good Seattle offense. If they can, then GB might make some noise in the NFC, seeing there is no dominant team. A slight lean towards the over, but with caution. GREEN BAY 27 SEATTLE 20
INDIANAPOLIS -3 Denver 49
Unfortunately, game number four where the situations go both ways. Next week, the situations will hopefully side just one way and we'll start to see some sides to start backing. Indy qualifies in a playoff situation, which is 42-16-0. They also haven't covered the spread in their last two games but that is actually a positive for them here as they qualify in a situation, which is 21-3-1 based on that. Indy also qualifies in a divisional winner versus wildcard team situation, which is 40-12-1. But, I have a hard time playing Indy because they just don't match up well with Denver. That showed in the first game and although the situations indicate otherwise, it matches up like it will happen again. Indy allows 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and Denver averages 4.8 ypr against 4.4 ypr. Those numbers alone suggest Denver should be able to run all over Indy just like their last game. It's very hard to look at Denver's numbers seeing they missed Jake Plummer for four games during the middle of the season and then again in the final, plus many more players. Over the year's I've learned to trust the situations so I will lean with Indy but, again, I don't like the match up in this game. The total is also very high but my numbers suggest a higher scoring game so I will lean that way slightly. INDIANAPOLIS 27 DENVER 23
BEST BETS
YTD 58-45-5 +20.10%
2% TENNESSEE/BALITMORE OVER 39.5
A quick look back over the last two years shows some amazing consistency. Last year, during the regular season, I finished 59-43 58% and this year, 58-45 and 56%. Last year there were 102 plays and this year 103 plays (minus the ties). The two year record is now 117-88 57%. The goal for me each year is 55% winners and produce a profit of +20% or better. Hopefully the playoffs will produce some more profit and I can finish the season strong.
All side opinions went 10-6 last week and are now 134-111-9 55% over the first seventeen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
A few notes about the Wild Card round. When looking at the wildcard round, I think it's important to understand the changes that took place in 1990. Prior to 1990, the two wildcard teams from each conference played each other in the "wildcard round." But, when the NFL added one more wildcard team in 1990, that produced a first place team playing a wildcard team in the "divisional round." The years previous to this saw just wildcard teams playing each other. And last year, another segment was added because of the extra division created in each conference. This produced two playoff games in each conference with each divisional winner playing a wildcard team. Now, some might say the wildcard version 2004 Tennessee Titans are better than the divisional winning 2004 Baltimore Ravens, but the Ravens do get the home game. But, it can be debated on who is better.
What's important to know is since 1990, when divisional winners started playing wildcard teams, the home teams have never failed to produce at least a .500 record SU, and other than two years of going 2-2 SU (1991 & 1992), they have gone 3-1 SU in 10 years and 4-0 SU one other year. So, in the 13 years, only two years have produced .500 years and 11 of 13 years have seen the home teams win at least three of the four games played.
Naturally all that is important is who covers the spread, but I thought the SU numbers were important this year seeing three of the four teams are laying three or less points or getting points. Prior to last year, we still had a wildcard team playing a wildcard team, which really isn't representative of what is happening now. So, I looked at only divisional winners playing wildcard teams in the first round. Those home teams went 16-11-1 against the spread and 20-8 SU. If the line was three or less or our home team was a dog, they went 4-2 against the spread and 5-1 SU.
The bottom line here is home teams dominate this round and trying to predict which road team will win SU is really asking for trouble. Over the previous 20 years, there have only been four years (20%) that the road teams have covered more games than the home team in this round, including covering three of four last year. Six times over the last 20 years, have more than one team in this round been favored by three or less (or dogs). During those six years, the road team has never covered more times than the home team. Three times the home team went 1-1, one time 1-0-1, one time 2-0 and one time 4-0. Again, the home teams are the safe bets here and looking at too many road teams could get you in trouble. Remember, history repeats itself more than you might think or like. Finally, home dogs are now 7-0 in this round. On to the games.
Tennessee -1.5 BALTIMORE 39.5
Baltimore has now won five straight games against Tennessee. They won last year's game 13-12 but were out gained 402-199 yards and 5.4-3.6 yppl. For the season, Baltimore is averaging 4.8 ypr against 4.3 ypr but only 4.9 yps against 5.9 yps. During their last five games, they are averaging 5.5 yps against 6.2 yps so the seasonal numbers also include Kyle Boller's poor numbers. On defense, Baltimore has been very solid, allowing just 3.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 4.8 yps against 5.8 yps. For Tennessee, they still don't run the ball well but they continue to throw the ball extremely well, averaging 3.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 7.4 yps against 6.0 yps for the season. On defense, Tennessee has played well against the run, but that may be more of a product of teams throwing when behind. Tennessee allowed teams to average 3.8 ypr against 4.0 ypr but 6.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Tennessee has allowed two teams to rush for 100+ yards this year. They allowed New England and Indianapolis, when they played Indy in Tennessee. They lost both of those games 30-38 and 27-29. What are the chances that Baltimore gets 100+ yards this week? Well, they have rushed for 100+ yards in every game this year since week two. Granted those two teams throw the ball much better than Baltimore, but Baltimore has a chance if they can get their rushing yards. This game, like all playoff games, comes down to turnovers. That would seem to favor Tennessee with Steve McNair versus Anthony Wright. But, Baltimore hasn't had more turnovers at home since their game against Kansas City, which also included Kyle Boller. Their defense has done a great job of creating turnovers at home. When Tennessee has committed more turnovers than their opponents, on the road, they have lost this year. I think the side here is hard to predict. Tennessee is the better team with the better quarterback, but the situations favor both teams, making the side a pass for me. Tennessee qualifies in a playoff situation, which is 42-16-0 but that situation, up to now, has always played the home team, so it's tough to figure out how a road team will react in this situation. Baltimore has only allowed 10 points over their last two games, but teams allowing 20 or fewer points over their last two games, are actually pointspread losers in the playoffs. Baltimore qualifies in a negative situation based on that premise, which is 44-18-2 and plays against Baltimore here. But, teams coming off a win of 10 or more points are poor propositions and Tennessee qualifies in a negative situation based on that, which is 34-11-3 and plays against Tennessee here. Baltimore also qualifies in a turnover situation, which indicates the turnovers stand a good chance to go their way in this game. That situation, which is a subset of my regular season turnover table, is 24-7-0 in the playoffs. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which works very well in the playoffs. The play I like the best here is the over. The average points scored in a NFL game this year is 42 points and this total is lower than 40 points, which means these two teams don't have to even score the average points in a game. Yes, the Baltimore defense is very good and can be stingy at home, but Tennessee seems to be able to score against anybody they play. Tennessee has played solid defensive teams New England, Buffalo and Tampa Bay this year and averaged 30+ points. They also tend to allow teams to score against them and even if they run away with this game, they will allow Baltimore to score at least 17 points in this game. Tennessee has allowed at least 13 points in every road game this year and Baltimore has scored 44, 44, 31 and 13 points at home with Anthony Wright at quarterback. Yes, I realize the defense has accounted for some of those points but they will get their points at home. Situations go both ways but it'll take points to beat Tennessee and Brian Billick realizes that. BALTIMORE 27 TENNESSEE 24
CAROLINA -3 Dallas 34
Yet another game where the situations favor both teams, making the side here hard to predict. Carolina likes to run the ball, but their rushing offense has been horrible as of late, averaging just 3.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games. Part of that is because Stephen Davis has been out. For the season, they are averaging just 4.0 ypr against 4.2 ypr but 6.3 yps against 6.1 yps. The defense is allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl and above average against both, the run and the pass. For Dallas, their offense continues to struggle, averaging just 4.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl and below average against both, the run and the pass. The defense has been solid, allowing just 4.3 yppl against 4.9 yppl. Dallas has allowed just 16 points over their last two games but again, teams allowing fewer than 20 points over their last two games are losing propositions and they qualify in a negative situation based on that premise, which is 44-18-2. Carolina qualifies in a divisional winner versus wildcard team situation, which is 40-12-1 and like I have been saying all year long, teams that don't cover the spread against teams who do cover the spread, are the way to go. Carolina qualifies in a situation based on that premise, which is 6-0 in the playoffs. But, Carolina is coming off a 10 point or greater win and they qualify in a situation that plays against those teams, which is 34-11-3. Once again, we have situations going both ways. I just find it hard to believe Quincy Carter can win a big road game. The Carolina defense isn't great but it is above average, and when Dallas has faced above average defenses on the road this year, they were shutout at Tampa Bay, 0-16, and shutout at New England, 0-12. Against better than average passing teams, Dallas has allowed 16 points (TB), 12 points (NE), 20 points (Carolina) and 40 points (Miami). That averages out to around 22 points or a median of about 18 points. Against good defenses as a whole, Dallas was shutout twice, as mentioned, and scored 24 against Carolina and 21 against Miami. That averages to around 10 points. I just don't see Dallas getting more than 10 points in this game. Carolina has scored at least 15 points in every home game this year. I like their chances to get the cover. CAROLNA 20 DALLAS 10
GREEN BAY -7.5 Seattle 44.5
Never happy when I go 1-5, like I did last week. But, that one win was Arizona and not only did they cover but they won the game straight up. If you've been reading my write-ups for the last nine years, you know I bleed Green & Gold, and seeing the Vikings lose and GB win last week was like being in heaven. And it was even better sitting in a Vikings bar and listening to the Vikings fans rub it in for most of the second half. Man, did that bar get quiet and clear out fast. That's almost as good as in 1998 when Gary Anderson missed the only field goal of the season for the Vikings in the Championship game. Actually, for me, it was even better because it benefited the Packers. As for this game, it will be interesting to see how the Packers play. This is what you need to know and watch for with GB. They have dramatically improved their defense over the second half of the season. Over their last five games, GB is allowing just 3.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.4 ypr. Now, you say they haven't played anybody over their last five games. Well, that is partly true because they played Detroit, Chicago, San Diego, Oakland and then Denver's "B" squad. But, you need to recognize SD averages 5.1 ypr this year against teams allowing just 4.3 ypr. They held SD to 3.3 ypr. The Packers picked up Grady Jackson prior to the Philadelphia game and their defense has improved dramatically since then. During that same time span since Jackson joined the Packers, they haven't allowed a team to average better than 3.5 ypr at home. That includes playing against Philly and last week against Denver. Even though it was Denver's "B" squad, the Broncos have seemingly been able to run on anybody, with anybody over the years. The point is it looks like their rush defense has become much more solid. There is still some doubt because they haven't played too many teams that can challenge them both, with the pass and the run. They have played SF limited them to 3.5 ypr and 3.5 yps. I've heard people say the Packers lost at home in the playoffs last year and it won't be any different this time around. Those people clearly haven't watched the Packers over the last two years. First, last year Favre stated this team wasn't that good but he has said this year this team has a chance to do something. Last year's team was allowing 4.8 ypr, while this year's team is allowing just 4.1 ypr, just 3.9 ypr since Jackson joined the team and just 3.1 ypr at home since Jackson joined the team. Last year's team was missing key defensive personnel and two starting offensive lineman. This year's team is relatively healthy, with the exception of Joe Johnson, who was a mistake and Mike McKenzie, who should play but is battling turf toe. This is a much different team this year. The Packers are averaging 5.0 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 6.6 yps against 5.9 yps, while allowing 4.9 yppl against 5.1 yppl, being above average against both, the run and the pass. For Seattle, they are averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 6.4 yps against 5.9 yps. The defense has allowed just 3.9 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 5.7 yps against 5.7 yps. Much has also been made about Seattle's road woes but I think that is a little misleading. They lost badly here in Green Bay and at Minnesota, but they were competitive in all of their other games and actually looked very good last week in San Francisco and played the Rams tough in St. Louis a few weeks ago. GB has allowed only 10 points over the last two weeks but, again, that's not a positive and the Packers qualify in a negative situation based on that, which is 44-18-2 and plays against them here. This is also Seattle's first playoff game in at least three years and teams who haven't played in the playoffs for at least three years are 28-7 if their opponent isn't in the same situation. GB qualifies in a divisional winner versus wildcard situation, but that situation isn't has good if our play on team (GB) has allowed 20 or less points in their last two games. Final numbers favor GB by seven points (all games) and by 8.5 points (last five games) so the line seems to be pretty accurate. I originally liked the over in this game but will pass on that for a couple of reasons. First, the weather should be in the 20's and that will probably hinder any long passes, which will obviously create potentially longer scoring drives. Second, assuming the Packers are ahead, Mike Sherman has openly stated he looks to start running the ball with about seven minutes left in the game to try and run the clock out. With the Packers standing a good chance to be ahead, that could hurt a total of 44 if you're looking to play it over. And third, since Jackson has joined the Packers, they haven't allowed a team gain more than 298 yards, with the exception of SD, who gained 424 yards. Again, they certainly haven't played the likes of Seattle, Kansas City and Minnesota during that time, so it remains to be seen how much their defense has improved. But, Sherman likes to run the ball to protect the defense as well, and that has translated into allowing just 14 points per game since Jackson joined the team. When Seattle has allowed at least 100 yards rushing on the road, they have allowed at least 27 points. The Packers are averaging around 180 yards per game at home, including 159 against Seattle in the first meeting. Again, the situations go both ways, but lean towards Seattle and I think this line might be a little too high, despite the numbers showing it to be accurate. The real test here is if GB can hold down a good Seattle offense. If they can, then GB might make some noise in the NFC, seeing there is no dominant team. A slight lean towards the over, but with caution. GREEN BAY 27 SEATTLE 20
INDIANAPOLIS -3 Denver 49
Unfortunately, game number four where the situations go both ways. Next week, the situations will hopefully side just one way and we'll start to see some sides to start backing. Indy qualifies in a playoff situation, which is 42-16-0. They also haven't covered the spread in their last two games but that is actually a positive for them here as they qualify in a situation, which is 21-3-1 based on that. Indy also qualifies in a divisional winner versus wildcard team situation, which is 40-12-1. But, I have a hard time playing Indy because they just don't match up well with Denver. That showed in the first game and although the situations indicate otherwise, it matches up like it will happen again. Indy allows 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and Denver averages 4.8 ypr against 4.4 ypr. Those numbers alone suggest Denver should be able to run all over Indy just like their last game. It's very hard to look at Denver's numbers seeing they missed Jake Plummer for four games during the middle of the season and then again in the final, plus many more players. Over the year's I've learned to trust the situations so I will lean with Indy but, again, I don't like the match up in this game. The total is also very high but my numbers suggest a higher scoring game so I will lean that way slightly. INDIANAPOLIS 27 DENVER 23
BEST BETS
YTD 58-45-5 +20.10%
2% TENNESSEE/BALITMORE OVER 39.5
