I don't mind the venting...an 0-3 day is not any fun for any of us.
I'm not going to say I can try harder...I can't, sometimes it's just not your day.
It happens sometimes...you move on.
2-3 for the Pick 5 isn't nearly as bad, SF bailed us out of a disaster.
Week 1 got us, that's for sure. Each week should get easier.
I'm not going to say I can try harder...I can't, sometimes it's just not your day.
It happens sometimes...you move on.
2-3 for the Pick 5 isn't nearly as bad, SF bailed us out of a disaster.
Week 1 got us, that's for sure. Each week should get easier.
any one who has been betting should know the first games in any sports, especially in football, is either full of big winners or big losers, its the first week.
you take your wins with your loses, it happens
if you have never had an 0-3 day in sports then you havent been gambling long enough
im not mad mj
lets get em next week
you take your wins with your loses, it happens
if you have never had an 0-3 day in sports then you havent been gambling long enough
im not mad mj
lets get em next week
Can we clear up the issue of the paid picks. Only when people were asking special requests for the extra picks (aka the 5pack) on top of what he as always provided at no charge(aka the 3pack), he setup up a donation system to help offset the time he spends maintaining his blog, his Wagerline account, and his posts on here.
I believe it makes sense that the 2 extra picks were the ones that obviously didn't make the cut last year when he was doing 3pack only, so in no way are those his "premium picks" or "locks of the week" or whatever term you wanna use for them.
I believe it makes sense that the 2 extra picks were the ones that obviously didn't make the cut last year when he was doing 3pack only, so in no way are those his "premium picks" or "locks of the week" or whatever term you wanna use for them.
MJ...just a quicky here, since your systems are based on stat systems (which i personally agree as the key to wagering) how have you done in the past years lets say week 1 and week 2, but more so on week 1?
the point that I'm getting at is that last years stats are probably less meaningfull in the nfl compared to other sports just based on the fact that team personel change drastically from year to year. Maybe (of course depending on how last few seasons week 1 went) It might be wise to run the systems but then filter the games out with your personal opinion in week 1 and maybe a little less opinion in week 2 till the stats are pilled up by week 3 and beyond.
Also putting this out because in all your other sports there is a grace period from the start to when you begin your system. I realize that the NFL is alot shorter so we need to start right away. Just a thought and if I'm way out in left feild I apologize for my comments.
Good luck to you and as always I read your posts and will always continue to do so regardless of how you start. Its the horse that finishes 1st in the race that counts not the one that starts off first!! right?
the point that I'm getting at is that last years stats are probably less meaningfull in the nfl compared to other sports just based on the fact that team personel change drastically from year to year. Maybe (of course depending on how last few seasons week 1 went) It might be wise to run the systems but then filter the games out with your personal opinion in week 1 and maybe a little less opinion in week 2 till the stats are pilled up by week 3 and beyond.
Also putting this out because in all your other sports there is a grace period from the start to when you begin your system. I realize that the NFL is alot shorter so we need to start right away. Just a thought and if I'm way out in left feild I apologize for my comments.
Good luck to you and as always I read your posts and will always continue to do so regardless of how you start. Its the horse that finishes 1st in the race that counts not the one that starts off first!! right?
Pick 3 or Pick 5...the only difference is in the number of picks.
So I would say the Pick 3 went 0-3 and the Pick 5 went 2-3
The Pick 5 will always have all the Pick 3 picks ...plus 2 more.
Maybe what is confusing to people is that the extra 2 picks aren't better picks...the extra value in the picks is because there are simply more picks.
Week #1 showed it again...more picks are actually less risk in my opinion.
You have to assume you have a method that beats the spread however...and that is always an assumption at best.
Last year the Pick 5 went 4-1 in week #1.
http://contests.covers.com/sportsco...l=overall&contestID=11622&ur=342704&sportID=1
But that really means nothing.
I think you make some very good points.
I'm rethinking my Week #1 approach. There is no reason we have to make all these picks in week #1. A pick or two based on pre-season analysis probably makes more sense.
I don't need to wait any longer than 1 week to compile stats however...the NFL is different that way.
I'm all about continuous improvement and building systems for the long haul...I think Week #1 needs an adjustment based on too much risk.
I might want to do the same for the last 3 weeks of the season and taper the number of picks down as well.
Thanks for the replie, MJ i wasn't gonna clogg up your thread discussing my thoughts with other posters I wanted to here your opinion, After all I'm into building systems too and was kinda iffy on the subject of week 1
Now go kick some @ss like you always do, after all no-one does it better than you day in and day out
(<)<
Now go kick some @ss like you always do, after all no-one does it better than you day in and day out
(<)<
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RX Senior
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Akron
Posts: 4,142
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<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> Originally Posted by cashflowmatters
Never ever pay for picks!!!!! Quit playing 1st
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That's your opinion.
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Ah, the ever famous concept of "selling out and paying for picks". Very controversial and yet very critical for everyone who bets on sports.
It will always come down to this: what do you care about most? Making money, or "having fun gambling"?
If you are betting on sports to make money, than that is all you should care about. Someone like you, with a username "cashflowmatters" should understand that. But the bottom line is:
If you hit at a high enough rate on your own than you don't need to pay for picks. If you are able to hit 65% and are making a ton of money each year by doing that, of course you should not pay for picks.
Looking at last NFL season, if you lost money or cashed out what you put in, or even slighly more, than you definitely would benefit paying for picks. You may say: "Well I follow XYZ on the forum". That is fine, like I said, if XYZ is making you a ton of money and you are cashing out multiple times a year from your book, then don't pay for anything. If not, you really should look into doing something to enable you to win. But you have to be VERY careful, because the business is very shady full of lots of terrible handicappers.
What I always look for from a service as a potential client is this:
Many will even claim a better rate than they truthfully hit, which is the worst type of service you could find. That's why so few of them want to be monitored.
Of the few that do hit at a high enough rate to follow, most charge so much that unless you are betting a lot on each game, whatever earnings you would have made are being spent on the plays themselves, and you might have just been better on your own.
There are some services out there who meet all 4 criteria above. I know this for a fact. And guys who bet $50 total per week can afford them, as can guys who bet $500 and more per week. But you have to do your own research, you have to find them, and you have to make sure they are legit.
You do know that the gentleman who won the Hilton contest last year pays for plays, right? To him, as it is to many of us who do this, the object is to MAKE MONEY.
Would you rather be the guy on this forum in 10 years who has net losses over the last 10 years, but who still is posting and having a blast while losing and hating on anyone who buys plays? Or would you rather be the guy who finds that service who is truly on point and can deliver them winning seasons, and comes back in 10 years with much more than he had today?
I think the answer is obvious. But above all, DON'T be that guy who decides to pay for plays and jumps on board any one of the flashy marketing scumbag tout out there and loses way more than he would if he just made plays on his own.
Truthfully, out of everyone on this site, which includes people who don't post at all, that there are:
RX Senior
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Akron
Posts: 4,142
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<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> Originally Posted by cashflowmatters
Never ever pay for picks!!!!! Quit playing 1st
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That's your opinion.
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</td></tr></tbody></table>Ah, the ever famous concept of "selling out and paying for picks". Very controversial and yet very critical for everyone who bets on sports.
It will always come down to this: what do you care about most? Making money, or "having fun gambling"?
If you are betting on sports to make money, than that is all you should care about. Someone like you, with a username "cashflowmatters" should understand that. But the bottom line is:
If you hit at a high enough rate on your own than you don't need to pay for picks. If you are able to hit 65% and are making a ton of money each year by doing that, of course you should not pay for picks.
Looking at last NFL season, if you lost money or cashed out what you put in, or even slighly more, than you definitely would benefit paying for picks. You may say: "Well I follow XYZ on the forum". That is fine, like I said, if XYZ is making you a ton of money and you are cashing out multiple times a year from your book, then don't pay for anything. If not, you really should look into doing something to enable you to win. But you have to be VERY careful, because the business is very shady full of lots of terrible handicappers.
What I always look for from a service as a potential client is this:
- Do they hit at a high rate, high enough to justify me paying them X amount (will I still make money after paying for their plays)?
- Do they document their wins and losses, preferably by an independent monitoring service, so I know for a fact that their record is what they say that it is?
- Do they charge so much (on a per play basis) that it will affect my bottom line over the course of the season and negate any profits?
- Do they share more than just a play? Will I be learning anything from them so that I can then, one day, win money without using them as a service, or do they only give me a play and I'm forced to keep coming back to them if I want to keep winning? Do they tell me "why" I should make a play, and do they share some insightful trends/stats/analysis so that I can learn and understand why they handicap games the way they do.
Many will even claim a better rate than they truthfully hit, which is the worst type of service you could find. That's why so few of them want to be monitored.
Of the few that do hit at a high enough rate to follow, most charge so much that unless you are betting a lot on each game, whatever earnings you would have made are being spent on the plays themselves, and you might have just been better on your own.
There are some services out there who meet all 4 criteria above. I know this for a fact. And guys who bet $50 total per week can afford them, as can guys who bet $500 and more per week. But you have to do your own research, you have to find them, and you have to make sure they are legit.
You do know that the gentleman who won the Hilton contest last year pays for plays, right? To him, as it is to many of us who do this, the object is to MAKE MONEY.
Would you rather be the guy on this forum in 10 years who has net losses over the last 10 years, but who still is posting and having a blast while losing and hating on anyone who buys plays? Or would you rather be the guy who finds that service who is truly on point and can deliver them winning seasons, and comes back in 10 years with much more than he had today?
I think the answer is obvious. But above all, DON'T be that guy who decides to pay for plays and jumps on board any one of the flashy marketing scumbag tout out there and loses way more than he would if he just made plays on his own.
Truthfully, out of everyone on this site, which includes people who don't post at all, that there are:
- 5% who are actually making enough to call sports betting more of a "job" than a "hobby"
- 10% who can hit in the mid/upper 50% with consistency and are able to make money while enjoying things
- 20% who can follow those 15% above and make money, while not screwing themselves with other poor plays
- 65% who would win more money and benefit by finding a good, low priced service and following their plays
this symbolic donation of a minimal amount i dont even consider 'paying for picks', but more paying for the time, MJ is doing his stats, mailing them every week on time, and dusting off the computer lol. but you get the point.
thanks for your time, and for the $$$ you made us. think im speaking from a whole bunch of guys following you, not only in the nfl. cant wait till nba starts man. gl this week.
thanks for your time, and for the $$$ you made us. think im speaking from a whole bunch of guys following you, not only in the nfl. cant wait till nba starts man. gl this week.
Just to be clear, I am not advocating MisterMJ's service. I know nothing about his track record nor what he is doing this season. I am speaking in general and directing my voice to the crowd who says: "Never pay for plays". Nothing could be further from the truth. It is entirely based on what you get for your money. I just find it humorous when people post things like: "Never ever pay for picks!!!!! Quit playing 1st"
