Panther. Like the Carolina pick but am going to respectfully disagree and go the other way in the New England game. Call me a homer as the Pats are my hometown team, but I'm not averse to betting against them where the opportunity merits it, like I did last week in playing Tennessee because I thought the Titans were the one team in the league that could match their physical play- and they did. As worried as I was about that game, however, I'm just as confident about a double-digit Pats win here for the following reasons:
1) The last time the Colts played in this cold of weather, with basically the same offensive team, they lost 41-0 to the Jets in the AFC Wild Card game last year. Dome teams are just a different breed when you get them in inclimate weather.
2) Belichek's defenses have played very well against Manning in the past, with the exception of the second half of this year's game, where I thought crowd momentum played a big part in the Colts rally. Just the opposite will happen this time around, as the Pats fans will make it extremely difficult for him to audible out of plays, as he is so adept at doing.
3) Colts team speed, one of their best assets, will be negated by poor field conditions. The new sod they put in before the Tennessee game was more for TV show than anything else. It's still a matted down dirt track that ain't nothing like the turf they're used to playing on at home.
4) As bad as the Chiefs defense was last week, which was pitiful, lost in the Colts win was the fact that the Indianapolis defense was just as awful. The Patriots achilles heel is in their offense, but against this defense they should be able to move the football and score points. Plus, RB Antoine Smith has come up big the last month, which further hurts the Colts if the Pats decide to play ball control and play keep away from Manning.
4) In the battles between great offenses and great defenses, the great defenses have historically won. I heard a stat the other day where in the ten games where the league's highest scoring offense has played the lowest scoring defense, the defensive team won nine of them.
Just one man's opinion, but especially at 3 I think the Pats have great value here.