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>Last week 1-0 +1.5 units</o><o
>Y-T-D 1-0 +1.5 units</o><o
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>NEW ORLEANS –3 over Tampa Bay<o></o>Forget about last week, or the week before, or the week before that when you’re assessing the Saints. This team wins when their suppose to lose and loses when their suppose to win. Fact is, this Bucs team is about the last team in the NFL that you want to be backing on the road right now. They caught a flat Bronco squad at home last week with a chance to restore dignity and failed miserably. Here we have two offenses going in opposite directions. The Buccaneers can't generate any consistency and are struggling to find someone, anyone, to be a playmaker. The Saints have an exciting passing attack driven by a playmaking quarterback and a ground game that keeps teams' attention despite missing its key running back. The time to step in with the Saints is when everyone has jumped off and that’s certainly the case here after getting spanked by the Cardinals in Arizona last week. This once dominant Bucs defense is no longer feared, their offense is non-existent and about the only thing left is John Gruden’s menacing stare. Saints have tons of talent and should that prevail then this one won’t be close. Play New Orleans –3 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
<o
></o>Carolina +1.95 over DENVER<o
></o>Take the points if you wish, we’ll choose to play the Panthers on the money line. Sure, Mile High has been as tough a place to win as any, however, we see a Broncos unit that has looked progressively worse each week. They were extremely fired up in their season opener at home on Monday Night Football and squeaked by the Chiefs. They followed that up with a 7-6 loss in Jacksonville and then two unimpressive wins over San Diego at home and Tampa Bay on the road. The Broncos have relied heavily on the running game over the years and have had great success in doing so. However, things have changed in Denver as they no longer feature a dominant back and it appears as though the team is not adjusting well. Neither is coach Mike Shanahan, who uncharacteristically threw the ball 37 times against the Chargers and ran just 21 times. That’s a tell tale sign that the coach isn’t feeling too confident about the running game. Jake Plummer’s effectiveness diminishes hugely when he’s forced to pass and the team, as a whole, will face a rather stingy Panther defense. Aside from relishing in the underdog role, Carolina will have Stephen Davis back for this one and that will take the load off of Deshaun Foster. Panthers coming off an embarrassing loss at home and you can be sure that if they’re not leading they’ll be hanging around real close and be in a position to win. Broncos get exposed here. Play Carolina +1.95 on the money line (Risking 1 unit).
<o
></o>Arizona +1 over SAN FRANCISCO<o
></o>The 49ers are favored here because they’re playing a team that nobody likes to wager on and a team that hasn’t been favored on the road in about, well, hmmm, ever. Thing is, the 49ers are a team in trouble, big trouble and just because they’re playing the Cardinals, don’t expect much to change. The defense is not only lousy, they’re also banged up and that puts too much pressure on an ordinary offense that already has lost whatever confidence they did have. Speaking of confidence, Dennis Green has the Cardinals believing and that counts for something. They’re just 1-3, however, they’ve played the Rams, Patriots, Falcons and Saints. They should have beaten the Falcons, they could have beaten the Rams and they certainly didn’t look out of place against the champs. Josh McCown is looking better each week and so are the Cardinals, especially on defense. They crushed the Saints last week 34-10 and this is by far their easiest assignment of the season. A win here and things aren’t looking so bad for the Cardinals, expect them to show up and get it. Play Arizona +1 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
<o
></o>SEATTLE –7 over St. Louis<o
></o>The Rams are a very average bunch that will be exposed as such against one of the better teams in the NFL. They have two wins on the year, one against the Cardinals, barely, and one last week against the 49ers. One thing we know for sure here is that the Seahawks will put up plenty of points. Matt Hasselback has emerged as a stud QB and will have plenty of success once again against a weak secondary that seldom performs well and never performs well on the road. Furthermore, Seattle is turning into the most difficult venue in the NFL to win games at and in fact, they haven’t lost at home since the 2002 season. The Seahawks, known for their offense, lead the league in five defensive categories and that also bodes well here against a Rams offense that features a shaky Marc Bulger running the show. Additionally, this is a coaching mismatch and the more we see of Rams Mike Martz and his idiotic play calling the more we realize just how bad he really is. Seahawks roll big. Play Seattle –7 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
<o
></o>The Rest of the Games<o
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></o>Buffalo +7 over NY JETS<o
></o>The Bills hung in against the Patriots before igniting their usual implosion. Look for fewer mistakes in this one as Buffalo figures to run the ball after it proved successful in a 17-6 Bills victory last year. New York has rookie LB Jonathan Vilma replacing Sam Cowart and that should suit Travis Henry just fine as he ran for 169 yards and a touchdown in aforementioned win. Jets managed a victory over the punch less Dolphins last week but were rather fortunate to do so. Price here is a tad to steep. Play Buffalo +7 (No bets).
<o
></o>HOUSTON +4½ over Minnesota<o
></o>The Vikings' offense, coming off an open week, is hitting on all cylinders despite a rash of injuries. The latest bad news is that running Michael Bennett will miss more time after having knee surgery, and Onterrio Smith must begin serving a four-game suspension. That leaves Minnesota with Moe Williams. Texans gaining steam and what we have here is a veteran team built to win now meeting up a young team poised to win now. The playoff push is on. Tough call in our opinion and we’ll stick with our refusal to lay road points. Play Houston +4½ (No bets).
<o
></o>NEW ENGLAND –13 over Miami<o
></o>Very difficult to endorse a Dolphins squad that cannot score points against anyone, let alone this defense. The Patriots have not lost in more than a year and their 18-game winning streak has moved them to legendary status. Miami is one of the six clubs to share that record with New England but the glory days of 1972 have faded compared to the fate that seems destined to meet the Dolphins now, their first losing record in 15 years. To its credit, the Dolphins' defense has shut down high-quality receiving units in Tennessee, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh but struggled against the Jets last week. Having just faced the Bills, a team with similar symptoms to the Dolphins, New England will be well prepared to face another one-dimensional team. Play New England –13 (No bets).
<o
></o>DALLAS –3½ over NY Giants<o
></o>We always look a little bit closer at games where the line opens at 3½ on the button, not three. When this occurs, it’s usually a result of the oddsmakers looking to entice the bettor into wagering on the wrong side, that side here being the Giants with that hook attached to them. Giants have done way more then expected but it appears as though the oddsmakers expect them to come back down to earth here after big win at Lambeau last week. Parcell’s has had two weeks to prepare and prepared the Cowboys will be, you can count on that. A relentless blitz attack on an immobile Kurt Warner will tell the story when this one’s in the books. Play Dallas –3½ (No bets).
<o
></o>SAN DIEGO +2½ over Jacksonville<o
></o>Jags have performed very admirable but don’t ignore that the Chargers success is even more admirable after being left for dead before the season even started. Next we have the intensity level of the Jaguars that simply can’t sustain this level for a whole season and this is the perfect spot to catch them a little lethargic. They’ve played four intensely charged games in a row and have the Chiefs on deck. The Chargers' surprise 38-17 thumping of Tennessee in Week 4 was reminiscent of the club's Week 1 win at Houston, every San Diego player contributed. The Chargers have played hard for coach Marty Schottenheimer every week and are in a very favorable spot here. In addition, Drew Brees is playing terrific and when you load a good QB with a great running back, things can change for the better in a real hurry. Chargers are living proof of that. Play San Diego +2½ (No bets).
<o
></o>Detroit +6½ over ATLANTA
Not at all impressed with the Jungle Kings thus far and laying points with the Falcons usually doesn’t work out too well either so that presents something of a dilemma. Good thing we don’t have to wager on every game. The Lions welcomed the open week to get most of their injured players healthy for the next stretch, most notably defensive standouts James Davis, Andre' Goodman, James Hall and Pro Bowl corner Dre' Bly. Atlanta is 4-0 and it’s not because of Michael Vick. The Falcons defense has allowed just 49 points and has 11 takeaways in the first four games. When in doubt, take the points and that’s precisely what we’re recommending but personally, are staying far away from this one. Play Detroit +6½ (No bets).
<o
></o>INDIANAPOLIS –9½ over Oakland<o
></o>Want absolutely no part of this Raider squad on the road. If there’s a defense in the NFL that’s worse then the Raiders we haven’t seen it yet. The Texans ripped them apart and Peyton Manning will do the same. Manning has 10 touchdown passes and no picks in his last three home games and 18 TD and 1 pick in his last six at home. He’s truly the cream of the crop and he’s playing the best ball of his career. Remember, the Colts have played the likes of New England and Jacksonville (two of the better defenses in the league), and Manning moved them down field like it didn’t matter. Colts are good for 35 or more and Raiders simply can’t keep pace. They haven’t won on the road in two years and this could be the ugliest one of them all. Raiders have the Keith Richards syndrome in that what had a bit of mystique twenty years ago is just plain creepy today. Play Indianapolis –9½ (No bets).
<o
></o>Cleveland +6½ over PITTSBURGH<o
></o>Pittsburgh ‘run first’ philosophy should bode well for a Cleveland team that ranks eighth in the league against the run. Jeff Garcia might not be the most talented QB in the NFL but the Brownies made a smart move in signing him because what he lacks in talent he more then make up for it with his desire to win. Seems like when these two get together you can throw everything you know about them out the window. Cleveland always gives the Steelers fits and while they haven’t looked good at all, an upset here would not surprise us in the least. Number appears a bit too fat. Play Cleveland +6½ (No bets).
<o
></o>WASHINGTON +1 over Baltimore<o
></o>What the hell happened to Joe Gibbs in the past 13 years? Seems as though all those gas fumes has effected his ability to think properly and as a result the Skins have lost two in a row when in fact they should have won the last two. Dan Snyder should hold a closed door meeting with Gibbs and his assistants and just go over a few things. First, someone needs to explain the number three to Joe. That’s how many time-outs each team receives and those time outs are not to have a drink of water. They’re to be treasured and you’d have thought that Gibbs learned that in the Dallas game but he made the exact same mistake last week in a loss to the Browns. Next issue in the meeting should be about when to challenge. Note to Joe Gibbs; never challenge a questionable nine-yard gain in the third quarter that puts the other team between the 40 yard lines. Aside from all that, Washington is still a pretty decent team with a defense that is performing very well indeed. The Ravens might be the best coached team in the NFL but that doesn’t change the fact that Kyle Boller is the worst starting QB in the league and we don’t care how good your defense is, you can’t leave them out there for 40 minutes a game and expect to win. Skins on the verge of a breakout and this could be the day it happens. Play Washington +1 (No bets).
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