Minicamp Review: NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - The Super Bowl runner-ups break in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The systems will stay mostly the same, but drafting Chris Wells in the first round all but guarantees the Cards will run more. The real question is whether Wells will be a feature back. His absence from all OTAs due to Ohio State's late graduation and lack of passing-down value makes it more likely that Tim Hightower will open Week 1 atop the depth chart. Don't be surprised if this is a DeAngelo Williams-Jonathan Stewart type situation, at least until midseason. And Arizona will run far less than the 2008 Panthers.
By all accounts (coaches and neutral observers), Matt Leinart looks much improved. With Kurt Warner 38 and coming off hip surgery, savvy deep-league Warner drafters can "handcuff" their starting QB with Leinart. ... Warner, though, appears way overvalued according to pre-training camp Average Draft Position. He's going late in the fourth round as the QB4, behind only Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, and Matt Schaub are all better bets. Don't be the guy who gambles Warner will make it through just his second 16-game season in the last decade.
A fantasy worthy tight end won't emerge in the desert. Ben Patrick would've been the best bet, but he'll open the year on suspension. ... The Cards are talking contract extension with Anquan Boldin. With franchise player Karlos Dansby no longer eligible for a long-term deal, Boldin has become more likely to stay in Arizona long term. ... The team got a scare at June minicamps when Larry Fitzgerald fell awkwardly while extending to make a highlight-reel catch. He's since been training with Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, and Sidney Rice, and is fully recovered.
San Francisco 49ers - The competition between Alex Smith and Shaun Hill is real. Mike Singletary won't name a starter until the third preseason game, limiting in-camp reps for whomever rises to the top spot. It's worth noting that Hill's 7-3 career record has been bolstered by easy opposition. Hill won two games against the 2008 Rams, one against the Bucs in 2007 with Jon Gruden resting his starters, one against the '07 Bengals, and two versus Buffalo and the Jets last year. Football Outsiders isn't impressed.
Michael Crabtree (foot) hasn't practiced in a 49er uniform yet and isn't guaranteed to start Week 1. Josh Morgan ripped up spring practice for the second straight year and appears locked into a first-team role. Jason Hill is set in the slot, so Crabtree has to beat out incumbent top receiver Isaac Bruce and new $16.5 million man Brandon Jones for playing time. As good as Crabtree should be down the road, he's unlikely to make an immediate impact. Fantasy drafters remain shockingly optimistic. Crabtree's going in the tenth round, ahead of stronger picks with just as much upside like Ted Ginn Jr., Kevin Curtis, Domenik Hixon, and potential Ravens No. 1 receiver Mark Clayton.
New offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye continues to talk up Vernon Davis. Davis might be too risky to gamble on as a fantasy starter, but don't be surprised if he shatters his previous career highs of 52 catches, 509 yards, and four touchdowns in Raye's tight end-friendly system. ... Arnaz Battle is probably the odd man out of San Francisco's suddenly deep receiver corps. ... Third-round runner Glen Coffee made little noise during minicamp season. We can't imagine he's much of a threat to Frank Gore's workload, especially in scoring position.
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Seattle Seahawks - As if Julius Jones' eroding talent and lack of scoring potential with T.J. Duckett poised to vulture all goal-line carries weren't enough to make him a fantasy pick to avoid, coordinator Greg Knapp said at OTAs that he wants to use a "rotation" in the backfield. "I definitely prefer that," said Knapp. "The game has gotten so physical. It's hard for one back to carry the load." While Thomas Jones trade rumors figure to pick up in camp, one potential piece of the committee to watch is Justin Forsett. Knapp utilizes a zone-blocking scheme, which Forsett played in under Jeff Tedford at Cal. Forsett also may already be the best pass-catching back on the roster.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh has picked up Knapp's offense quickly and apparently already bonded with now-healthy quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. However, the biggest obstacle for Housh is Knapp's historically run-first offense (see the 2001-2003 49ers, 2004-2006 Falcons, and 2007-2008 Raiders). There's no way Houshmandzadeh is catching 100 passes in this system. We project 88/940/5 for the $40 million flanker, and that's generously giving him a bump in yards-per-catch despite Houshmandzadeh going on 32 and entering Knapp's short-game passing attack. Our ADP report says no one in the top-90 fantasy picks is as overvalued.
Deion Branch still has his roster spot, even though he lost his position to Houshmandzadeh and didn't practice all spring while recovering from knee surgery. If GM Tim Ruskell gets serious about Thomas Jones, a straight-up swap sending Branch to the Jets makes too much sense. ... The Seahawks are giving first-round pick Aaron Curry more chances to rush the passer on the strong side. It's just too bad he's playing SAM. Middle 'backer Lofa Tatupu will continue to lead Seattle in tackles, and Curry will be overvalued in IDP drafts. ... The Seahawks' receiver battle opposite Houshmandzadeh is wide open, and probably won't be settled until deep in camp. The candidates: third-round rookie Deon Butler, Nate Burleson, Ben Obomanu, and possibly Branch.
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St. Louis Rams - This year's offensive change in St. Louis is eerily similar to last year's in Washington. Like Jim Zorn did in D.C., former Eagles QBs coach Pat Shurmur is installing a run-based West Coast offense. Clinton Portis had owners atop fantasy rankings at the halfway point last season with 944 yards on 187 carries and seven TDs. Steven Jackson is younger, has less tread on his tires, and plays in a much weaker division. Could Jackson work similar magic, and keep it going all season? He's also way more versatile than Portis, and St. Louis upgraded its personnel around S-Jax with first-round pick Jason Smith, pricey center Jason Brown, and facemask-cracking lead blocker Mike Karney. Try not to hold Jackson's eight missed games since 2006 against him if he's available late in the first round. He has fantasy MVP potential.
With Marc Bulger facing a do-or-die season, the Rams are among the most likely teams to make a quarterback trade before or during camp. Bulger's never played in an offense like Shurmur's and could struggle this preseason. Tarvaris Jackson, who is expected to ask out once Brett Favre signs in Minnesota, and Kevin Kolb have played in the same system. Shurmur was Kolb's position coach in Philadelphia for the last two years. Other names of interest could be free agent Brian Griese, Todd Collins, and Vince Young or Michael Vick if the Rams really want to get creative.
Projected Rams No. 2 receiver Keenan Burton (hamstring) got hurt again at minicamps. He needs to stay healthy to hold off speedy Laurent Robinson opposite Donnie Avery. ... Kenneth Darby is the favorite to be Steven Jackson's backup, ahead of Antonio Pittman and rookie Chris Ogbonnaya. ... Second-round pick James Laurinaitis continues to run behind Chris Draft at middle linebacker, but that won't last. Laurinaitis is a virtual lock to start there on opening day and lead all rookies in tackles.
Arizona Cardinals - The Super Bowl runner-ups break in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The systems will stay mostly the same, but drafting Chris Wells in the first round all but guarantees the Cards will run more. The real question is whether Wells will be a feature back. His absence from all OTAs due to Ohio State's late graduation and lack of passing-down value makes it more likely that Tim Hightower will open Week 1 atop the depth chart. Don't be surprised if this is a DeAngelo Williams-Jonathan Stewart type situation, at least until midseason. And Arizona will run far less than the 2008 Panthers.
By all accounts (coaches and neutral observers), Matt Leinart looks much improved. With Kurt Warner 38 and coming off hip surgery, savvy deep-league Warner drafters can "handcuff" their starting QB with Leinart. ... Warner, though, appears way overvalued according to pre-training camp Average Draft Position. He's going late in the fourth round as the QB4, behind only Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, and Matt Schaub are all better bets. Don't be the guy who gambles Warner will make it through just his second 16-game season in the last decade.
A fantasy worthy tight end won't emerge in the desert. Ben Patrick would've been the best bet, but he'll open the year on suspension. ... The Cards are talking contract extension with Anquan Boldin. With franchise player Karlos Dansby no longer eligible for a long-term deal, Boldin has become more likely to stay in Arizona long term. ... The team got a scare at June minicamps when Larry Fitzgerald fell awkwardly while extending to make a highlight-reel catch. He's since been training with Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, and Sidney Rice, and is fully recovered.
San Francisco 49ers - The competition between Alex Smith and Shaun Hill is real. Mike Singletary won't name a starter until the third preseason game, limiting in-camp reps for whomever rises to the top spot. It's worth noting that Hill's 7-3 career record has been bolstered by easy opposition. Hill won two games against the 2008 Rams, one against the Bucs in 2007 with Jon Gruden resting his starters, one against the '07 Bengals, and two versus Buffalo and the Jets last year. Football Outsiders isn't impressed.
Michael Crabtree (foot) hasn't practiced in a 49er uniform yet and isn't guaranteed to start Week 1. Josh Morgan ripped up spring practice for the second straight year and appears locked into a first-team role. Jason Hill is set in the slot, so Crabtree has to beat out incumbent top receiver Isaac Bruce and new $16.5 million man Brandon Jones for playing time. As good as Crabtree should be down the road, he's unlikely to make an immediate impact. Fantasy drafters remain shockingly optimistic. Crabtree's going in the tenth round, ahead of stronger picks with just as much upside like Ted Ginn Jr., Kevin Curtis, Domenik Hixon, and potential Ravens No. 1 receiver Mark Clayton.
New offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye continues to talk up Vernon Davis. Davis might be too risky to gamble on as a fantasy starter, but don't be surprised if he shatters his previous career highs of 52 catches, 509 yards, and four touchdowns in Raye's tight end-friendly system. ... Arnaz Battle is probably the odd man out of San Francisco's suddenly deep receiver corps. ... Third-round runner Glen Coffee made little noise during minicamp season. We can't imagine he's much of a threat to Frank Gore's workload, especially in scoring position.
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Seattle Seahawks - As if Julius Jones' eroding talent and lack of scoring potential with T.J. Duckett poised to vulture all goal-line carries weren't enough to make him a fantasy pick to avoid, coordinator Greg Knapp said at OTAs that he wants to use a "rotation" in the backfield. "I definitely prefer that," said Knapp. "The game has gotten so physical. It's hard for one back to carry the load." While Thomas Jones trade rumors figure to pick up in camp, one potential piece of the committee to watch is Justin Forsett. Knapp utilizes a zone-blocking scheme, which Forsett played in under Jeff Tedford at Cal. Forsett also may already be the best pass-catching back on the roster.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh has picked up Knapp's offense quickly and apparently already bonded with now-healthy quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. However, the biggest obstacle for Housh is Knapp's historically run-first offense (see the 2001-2003 49ers, 2004-2006 Falcons, and 2007-2008 Raiders). There's no way Houshmandzadeh is catching 100 passes in this system. We project 88/940/5 for the $40 million flanker, and that's generously giving him a bump in yards-per-catch despite Houshmandzadeh going on 32 and entering Knapp's short-game passing attack. Our ADP report says no one in the top-90 fantasy picks is as overvalued.
Deion Branch still has his roster spot, even though he lost his position to Houshmandzadeh and didn't practice all spring while recovering from knee surgery. If GM Tim Ruskell gets serious about Thomas Jones, a straight-up swap sending Branch to the Jets makes too much sense. ... The Seahawks are giving first-round pick Aaron Curry more chances to rush the passer on the strong side. It's just too bad he's playing SAM. Middle 'backer Lofa Tatupu will continue to lead Seattle in tackles, and Curry will be overvalued in IDP drafts. ... The Seahawks' receiver battle opposite Houshmandzadeh is wide open, and probably won't be settled until deep in camp. The candidates: third-round rookie Deon Butler, Nate Burleson, Ben Obomanu, and possibly Branch.
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St. Louis Rams - This year's offensive change in St. Louis is eerily similar to last year's in Washington. Like Jim Zorn did in D.C., former Eagles QBs coach Pat Shurmur is installing a run-based West Coast offense. Clinton Portis had owners atop fantasy rankings at the halfway point last season with 944 yards on 187 carries and seven TDs. Steven Jackson is younger, has less tread on his tires, and plays in a much weaker division. Could Jackson work similar magic, and keep it going all season? He's also way more versatile than Portis, and St. Louis upgraded its personnel around S-Jax with first-round pick Jason Smith, pricey center Jason Brown, and facemask-cracking lead blocker Mike Karney. Try not to hold Jackson's eight missed games since 2006 against him if he's available late in the first round. He has fantasy MVP potential.
With Marc Bulger facing a do-or-die season, the Rams are among the most likely teams to make a quarterback trade before or during camp. Bulger's never played in an offense like Shurmur's and could struggle this preseason. Tarvaris Jackson, who is expected to ask out once Brett Favre signs in Minnesota, and Kevin Kolb have played in the same system. Shurmur was Kolb's position coach in Philadelphia for the last two years. Other names of interest could be free agent Brian Griese, Todd Collins, and Vince Young or Michael Vick if the Rams really want to get creative.
Projected Rams No. 2 receiver Keenan Burton (hamstring) got hurt again at minicamps. He needs to stay healthy to hold off speedy Laurent Robinson opposite Donnie Avery. ... Kenneth Darby is the favorite to be Steven Jackson's backup, ahead of Antonio Pittman and rookie Chris Ogbonnaya. ... Second-round pick James Laurinaitis continues to run behind Chris Draft at middle linebacker, but that won't last. Laurinaitis is a virtual lock to start there on opening day and lead all rookies in tackles.
