Gold Sheet, GS Extra, CKO
http://www.mediafire.com/?sharekey=08c514eef852bf215a3d773badf21430e04e75f6e8ebb871
http://www.mediafire.com/?sharekey=08c514eef852bf215a3d773badf21430e04e75f6e8ebb871
Nelly's Greensheet
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 STANFORD (-7) over Arizona State
RATING 4 WEST VIRGINIA (-7) over Connecticut
RATING 3 VIRGINIA (+4) over Georgia Tech
RATING 2 UTAH STATE (+1½) over Louisiana Tech
RATING 2 INDIANA (+4½) over Northwestern
RATING 1 MISSISSIPPI STATE (+22) over Florida
RATING 1 MIAMI, FL (-7) over Clemson
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2009
Tulsa (-7) UTEP 7:00 PM
Last year this match-up was a laugher as Tulsa rolled to a 77-35 win, although the game was
tied 28-28 after the first quarter. Tulsa has not come close to last season’s production, now
only averaging just over 30 points per game and less than 400 yards per game. As a result
the ‘under’ has cashed in every Tulsa game. Defensively Tulsa has been much stronger this
season but they have not played the same caliber of schedule that UTEP has battled through.
These teams are expected to be battling for the top spot in the West division of Conference
USA but UTEP will need to win here to keep pace as Tulsa is 2-0 in conference play. The
home team has dominated this series in recent years and Tulsa could be a bit drained from
the national TV loss to Boise State last week. Tulsa had great preparation for that game and
hung close but it will be an advantageous situation for UTEP coming off a bye week. The
Miners have some ugly stats on defense but are 8-4 the last 12 as home dogs. UTEP BY 4
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2009
NORTH CAROLINA (-2½) Florida State 7:00 PM
UNC has some of the best defensive numbers in the nation, allowing only 237 yards per
game. The Tar Heels have lost their last two FBS games however, currently sitting 0-2 in the
ACC despite being considered a contender. Florida State is actually 0-3 in conference play
and the Seminoles are just 2-4 overall with only one FBS win. That win was a shocking
blowout at BYU but this will be a tough road game as both teams are well rested. North
Carolina has only won S/U against Florida State once in school history, so though this line
may be close to even, UNC is still the underdog in the minds of the players. Florida State has
played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and the offense has been far more
productive for the year. Florida State has been vulnerable to big plays on defense but North
Carolina has not been able to sustain drives let alone create a big plays. Against three major
conference opponents, North Carolina has scored a total of 22 points. FLORIDA STATE BY 6
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2009
Rutgers (-10) ARMY 7:00 PM
Rutgers reeled off a four-game winning streak against weak competition but the Big East
favorites of many are now 0-2 in conference play. After a primetime loss last week at home
Rutgers is back to facing a match-up more in line with its schedule that rates as one of the
weakest in the nation. Army owns three wins this season and the losses have mainly been
competitive efforts. The Black Knights are rushing for 222 yards per game while overall Army
allows just 285 yards per game. Army has also played a weak schedule and the last two years
Rutgers has won by a combined score of 71-9 in this series. QB play has been suspect for the
Scarlet Knights but Rutgers should have success running the ball in this match-up. Army
probably deserved to cover last week as they out-gained Temple and allowed only 195 yards
despite losing 27-13. Army has not been strong in the home underdog role, going 7-18 since
’03 and against major conference competition the Black Knights have not held up well.
Rutgers has underperformed so far this season but this is an opportunity. RUTGERS BY 17
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2009
MARSHALL (-7½) Uab 11:00 AM
These teams are both 2-1 in conference play in what could be a wide open East division. UAB
has been out-gained by 100 yards or more in each of the last four games and the Blazers are
0-3 S/U and ATS in road games this season. UAB is one of the top rushing teams in the
nation but Marshall has been a very solid defensive team through a much more challenging
schedule. Last season UAB won 23-21 at home in this match-up but this will be the fourth
road game in the past five games for the Blazers. While Marshall is a solid team in the
underdog role the Herd is rarely accustomed to playing as solid favorites. UAB is an attractive
team in the underdog role with a strong rushing ability but the road woes may be too much to
overcome for the Blazers against a good defense. MARSHALL BY 10
SYRACUSE (-9½) Akron 2:30 PM
Akron is just 1-5 which has created an inflated spread on this match-up. The Zips have been
competitive however and there should be plenty of chances to score against a Syracuse
defense that is allowing 382 yards per game. Starting the season as the #3 QB, Patrick Nicely
managed the game well last week as Akron had a solid yardage edge in a narrow loss.
Syracuse has had two weeks to prepare for this game but the Orange have been a lousy ATS
home team the last three years. Last season Akron beat Syracuse 42-28, posting 478 yards.
The Zips have had a lot go wrong this season but this was a team projected to do extremely
well in the MAC. Syracuse should be ready to play this week but they have not proven good
enough to lay this size of a number. SYRACUSE BY 6
DUKE (-6) Maryland 12:30 PM
Maryland has won five in a row in this series but these teams hav e not met since ’04. Duke is
not often a favorite but the Blue Devils actually project to a much larger number than this early
line. Duke is just 7-17 ATS in the last 24 home games so there is valid concern with backing
the Devils at any price. Duke is scoring 32 points per game with nearly 400 yards of offense
and at 3-3 this is a promising team. Maryland has played every single week while Duke will be
rested in this match-up but the Terrapins have actually out-gained four of the last five foes.
Both teams have marginal defensive numbers but Maryland has had to play a more
challenging schedule although they have lost badly in both road games. Duke has scored 124
points in the last three games and this is a team with growing confidence that is rested and
should have a great game plan in this match-up. Both teams have had limited success
running the ball this season and Duke has proven the ability to win a shootout. DUKE BY 10
Georgia Tech (-4) VIRGINIA 11:00 AM
The Yellow Jackets are getting some national attention now 6-1 and coming off an impressive
win over Virginia Tech. Georgia Tech’s rushing attack is averaging 281 yards per game but
coming off back-to-back big wins leaves for a vulnerable flat spot. Virginia has had great
success in this series, covering in five of the last six and twelve of the last 18. Virginia is also
15-5 the last 20 games as a home underdog and after a brutal start to the season the
Cavaliers have rattled off three wins, playing great defensive football. Against major
conference competition the last three weeks Virginia has allowed only 19 points and for the
year Virginia is allowing 82 fewer yards per game than Georgia Tech. Virginia QB Jemeel
Sewell left last weeks game but if he is healthy the Cavaliers should expect to be in position
for an upset. Georgia Tech’s rushing attack had just 156 yards in this match-up last season
and the Cavs are playing much better than their reputation represents. VIRGINIA BY 4
MIAMI, FL (-7) Clemson 11:00 AM
The Tigers came up with a huge win last week but the game came in a favorable situation.
Miami has faced an extremely challenging schedule but the Hurricanes are 5-1, both S/U and
ATS. Both road games have meant losses for Clemson and they had two weeks to prepare for
last week’s games which likely helped create the great performance. Clemson’s defense is
allowing only 15 points per game but they have been out-gained in three games this season
and have been aided by weather in two games to keep the scoring low . Clemson has been a
dangerous underdog with a 13-3 ATS record in the last 16 attempts but this Tigers squad has
been inconsistent on offense. Clemson may be a bit overvalued coming off a lopsided win and
this is a team that is not having the same type of success at home. When Miami plays well
they have proven to be an elite caliber team and after an uninspiring effort last week, great
focus is in order for this match-up. MIAMI BY 17
PURDUE (-10½) Illinois 11:00 AM
The Boilermakers enter this game off a huge upset win but it was a long-time coming as
Purdue had been very productive against quality competition only to be burned by turnovers.
Purdue is scoring 28 points per game with over 400 yards of offense. Purdue has played the
tougher schedule and has been better statistically on both sides of the ball. It has been an
awful season for Illinois, now 0-4 in the Big Ten and 0-5 ATS for the season. Purdue has had
excellent success in this series and although there is a risk for a letdown, Illinois continues to
disappoint and is not a team that can be trusted at any price. This will be the second straight
week on the road for Illinois and after falling well short in one of the few winnable games on
the schedule last week it could be another tough game. PURDUE BY 17
Central Michigan (-7) BOWLING GREEN 11:00 AM
After a respectable opening loss to Arizona, Central Michigan has won six in a row and the
Chippewas are in control of the MAC. Bowling Green has had to battle through a very
challenging schedule and after a four-game losing streak the Falcons have rebounded with
back-to-back road wins. Oddly Bowling Green has been a much better performer away from
home in recent years and the Falcons are 4-15 ATS in the last 19 home games. Central could
be a bit flat coming off a big road win over a key division rival but this has been the most
consistent performing team in the MAC over the last few seasons. Bowling Green has been
out-rushed in six straight games and the Falcon defense is allowing 70 more yards per game
on the season. Central Michigan is on a roll both S/U and ATS and it is not worth trying to fade
them right now. Bowling Green is still rebuilding despite some promise. CENTRAL BY 10
NORTHWESTERN (-4½) Indiana 11:00 AM
Both teams enter this match-up at 4-3 and this would be key win for the potential bowl hopes
for both squads. Northwestern has been a little bit of a disappointment this season following a
strong 2008 as the Wildcats have only scored 27 points per game through a rather weak
schedule. Indiana has actually been the superior rushing team on the year and the Hoosiers
beat Northwestern last season as underdogs. Indiana had a disastrous trip to Virginia in its
last road game but much of the team was ill and a sharp performance last week against
Illinois has the team back on track. Northwestern covered last week but the offense has not
taken advantage of opportunities and the defense is not strong enough to shut down
opponents. Indiana has been a lousy road performer in recent years but the Hoosiers have
been more impressive through a tougher schedule so far this season and the Wildcats are 3-
11 the last 14 games at favorites. INDIANA BY 3
OHIO STATE (-18) Minnesota 11:00 AM
Terrelle Pryor and Adam Weber were expected to be two of the top QBs in the Big Ten this
season but neither has had a very good statistical season as both are completing just 55
percent of passes and interceptions have been common. In tough conditions at Penn State
last week the Gophers failed to score and produced 138 yards. It was the sixth consecutive
game that Minnesota was out-gained even though the Gophers are currently 4-3. Just as Ohio
State appeared to be taking command back in the Big Ten, the Buckeyes were victim to a
shocking upset last week. The BCS hopes have been dashed but this should be a favorable
situation against a Minnesota team that has had little success in this series. The Buckeyes
can bounce back as Minnesota has been fortunate in several wins. OHIO STATE BY 24
PITTSBURGH (-6½) South Florida 11:00 AM
The Panthers have moved into the national rankings with a 6-1 record but for the season
South Florida has been a superior statistical team on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh has
played a slightly tougher schedule but South Florida also has just one loss. South Florida
came up short in last week’s national TV game while Pittsburgh was a winner in its weeknight
TV game last week. South Florida will face its first road game in what could be difficult
northern weather but the Bulls have been a solid underdog in recent years. Pittsburgh won by
five at South Florida last season as the teams exchanged touchdowns late in the 4th quarter.
Pitt had significant statistical edges in that game and this year similar match-up edges should
be present. Pittsburgh continues to deliver and wins the past two weeks have been more
significant in terms of yardage than the final margins suggest. PITTSBURGH BY 10
WEST VIRGINIA (-7) Connecticut 11:00 AM
It will be an emotional week for the Huskies as starting CB Jasper Howard was stabbed to
death on campus the evening after last week’s homecoming win. West Virginia is just 1-0 in
conference play and the Mountaineers have flown a bit under the radar this season despite a
5-1 start. West Virginia has won and covered each of the last five years in this series and this
is a team that looks capable of challenging the favorite Cincinnati in the Big East. Through
comparable schedules West Virginia has been better on both sides of the ball statistically and
the Mountaineers have out-gained all six opponents on the year. Connecticut has not lost ATS
this season but the Huskies have also failed to beat a high quality opponent and are just 6-13
in the last 19 games as road underdogs. It is a tragic situation for the Connecticut program but
unfortunately it comes in a critical week on the schedule for a West Virginia team that is
capable of putting up big numbers. WEST VIRGINIA BY 16
SOUTH CAROLINA (-12½) Vanderbilt 6:00 PM
The Gamecocks played Alabama as close as anyone has this season, which still is not very
competitive though South Carolina stole a narrow cover. The Gamecocks have faced a
dramatically more difficult schedule so far this season and also owns a perfect record at
home. Vanderbilt has two wins but one came against a FCS opponent and the other came
against a winless Rice team. Vanderbilt has scored just 29 points in four SEC games and they
now must face one of the better defensive teams in the nation on the road. South Carolina QB
Stephen Garcia is questionable this week with a banged up knee but this is a team led by
defense and Vanderbilt’s solid looking numbers on defense are misleading given the
schedule. South Carolina was out-gained last week for the first time all season and after S/U
losses the last two years this should be a game that gets great focus this season. A potentially
depressed line if QB Garcia is out would still be worth a look. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 21
NEBRASKA (NL) Iowa State 12:30 PM
The scoreboard was ugly for Nebraska as they were smoked as a solid home favorite last
week. Despite losing 31-10, Nebraska out-gained Texas Tech and held the high-powered Red
Raiders offense to only 259 yards. A fumble return for a touchdown was a key play early in the
game but the Nebraska offense was ineffective much of the game and QB Zac Lee was
eventually pulled. Iow a State has covered in four of the last five games and the Cyclones have
been very competitive in their losses as well. Iowa State has actually been a more productive
offensive team for the season although Nebraska has faced a more difficult schedule. Iowa
State has been an excellent ATS team in the role as a large underdog and assuming QB
Austen Arnaud is able to go for the Cyclones this could be a favorable match-up going against
a reeling Cornhusker offense. Nebraska has out-gained every opponent this season but
against quality Big XII offenses the defense can’t carry the team. NEBRASKA BY 7
Ball State (-3½) EASTERN MICHIGAN 12:00 PM
The Cardinals will play as a 0-7 road favorite in this match-up of winless teams. Eastern
Michigan has actually played the tougher schedule and has been a slightly stronger defensive
team so the favoritism may not be justified. That said, Ball State has been a quality ATS road
team in recent years while Eastern is 3-13 ATS in the last 16 home games. Since QB Schmitt
went down to injury the Eagle offense has taken a big hit but Ball State may also be dealing
with the loss of a QB this week. Back-up QB Tanner Justice completed just 6 of 21 passes in
relief last week so the offense could struggle. Eastern Michigan is a tough team to back as
they have put together very few positive efforts in recent years but Ball State may be in a bad
situation even though the Cardinals hav e been the more competitive team . EASTERN BY 3
Northern Illinois (-11½) MIAMI, OH 12:00 PM
Miami is scoring just ten points a game, now sitting at 0-7 on the year. The defense
meanwhile has allowed over 35 points per game and they will face Northern Illinois coming off
a very tough loss. The Huskies are just 1-9 ATS in the past ten road contests so this could be
an opportunity for the Redhawks. NIU has won the last four meetings between these teams
but Miami has covered in close games the past two years. By a wide margin Miami has had to
play the toughest schedule of any MAC team and this will be the first home game for the
Redhawks that is not against a BCS conference school. Northern Illinois has rebounded nicely
from past losses however and though the trends for NIU are not strong, the scoring numbers
present a huge edge. Much of Miami’s production has come late in games after a big deficit
has been established and the Huskies should be in position to continue the misery for a once
proud Miami program that is currently in rough shape. NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY 17
Oklahoma State (-10) BAYLOR 11:30 AM
While Oklahoma State has now won four in a row and continues to climb in the national
rankings this has not been a terribly impressive team. The Cowboys have played one of the
easiest schedules of any major conference team and the acclaimed offense is only outgaining
foes by about 50 yards per game. Key players have been absent but this is also a
team that has only had to play one road game so far. Injuries have derailed a once promising
season for Baylor and the Bears have scored just 17 points the last two weeks. Oklahoma
State has covered in eight of the last ten meetings and the Bears have not been a successful
home underdog. The Cowboys are due to get caught at some point this season but this
match-up should be favorable. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 14
OHIO (-9½) Kent State 1:00 PM
The Bobcats can become bowl eligible with one more win as Ohio has quietly won five of the
last six games. Ohio is allowing more yards than they gain and the team has been out-gained
three of the last four weeks despite covers in all four games. At 3-0 in conference play the
Bobcats are in control of the East division currently but there is little margin for error. Kent is
quietly on a four-game ATS winning streak but through a softer schedule the Flashes are
allowing significantly more yards per game. Both of Kent’s FBS wins came against teams that
are currently winless so there are some suspect numbers on the resume. This is the steepest
line in this series since ’02 but Ohio has taken care of business in conference play and the
Bobcats are 12-6 ATS in the past 18 home games. OHIO BY 14
WESTERN MICHIGAN (-4½) Buffalo 1:00 PM
The Broncos are normally a MAC contender but two early season conference losses leave
Western Michigan in a tough spot in the standings. Normally led by defense, Western
Michigan is allowing over 400 yards per game and the offense has not been consistent. Last
year’s MAC champion has had a much tougher go this season but Buffalo has wins the last
two weeks and on average the Bulls have out-gained foes by over 50 yards per game. Buffalo
lost in overtime against Western Michigan last season as the Broncos completed a significant
comeback so there should some motivation in this match-up for the Bulls. Western also enters
this game off a state rivalry loss last week in a critical conference home game. Western
Michigan has not lived up to expectations so far this season and they have also been a poor
ATS home team in recent years. BUFFALO BY 3
Louisiana Tech (-1½) UTAH STATE 2:00 PM
Utah State may be 1-5 but this will be a dangerous team in WAC play. The Aggies have had
to play four of six games on the road and back at home they nearly beat a Nevada team
projected by many to be one of the better teams in the conference. A loss to New Mexico
State looks bad but Utah State had a nearly 200 yard advantage in that game. Louisiana Tech
won by just seven at home in this series last season and the Bulldogs are 1-10 ATS in the last
eleven road games while Utah State has covered in six in a row as home underdogs. Utah
State has had to endure a muc h tougher schedule in the first half of the season and Louisiana
Tech has been out-gained by over 200 yards in all three road games this season. Utah State
QB Diondre Borel has nine touchdown passes and only one interception on the season
despite facing several quality defenses so this is an Aggies team that should have a good
chance to win playing in a favorable home venue. UTAH STATE BY 6
NOTRE DAME (-9) Boston College 2:30 PM
There will be talk of a letdown possibility for Notre Dame but the Irish were not really expected
to compete by most last week and they should be encouraged by the late rally. Notre Dame
has had limited recent success in this series or as a home favorite but Boston College has
endured disastrous results on the road this season. Boston College has actually won six in a
row S/U against the Irish but the Eagles may be in more of a letdown spot following a big win
over NC State and the former BC coach. Notre Dame has been by far the superior offensive
team and although the defensive numbers are not strong, the schedule has been very difficult.
The Irish will have a big edge at QB in this match-up as the Eagles have had atrocious play
under center and the running game is not likely to explode for as great of success this week
as RB Montel Harris had five touchdowns last week. NOTRE DAME BY 14
ALABAMA (-16) Tennessee 2:30 PM
Tennessee has had two weeks to prepare for this game and Alabama could be a bit
overvalued after eclipsing Florida in the polls last week. The Tide have been exceptionally
impressive this season but this is still a team that is 10-21 ATS as a home favorite since ’04
and the line will be inflated this week. These teams have played similar caliber schedules and
the Volunteers played well in their biggest game against Florida this season so a strong effort
should be in order here. In its last game, against Georgia, Tennessee also had its best
offensive effort since the opening week. Although Alabama’s defense has been better
Tennessee does feature a stingy unit as well and the offensive production between these two
teams has actually been quite similar. Against quality defenses the last two weeks Alabama
has been forced to settle for a lot of field goals, scoring just 42 points in two games.
Tennessee could keep Alabama’s scoring numbers down which makes this inflated spread
even more attractive for the underdog Volunteers. ALABAMA BY 10
Oregon (-7½) WASHINGTON 2:30 PM
Two weeks ago Washington stole a win from Arizona late in the game but last week a tie
game was finished the wrong way in the closing seconds against the Huskies. Washington
has endured a season of dramatic games through one of the toughest schedules in the nation.
Oregon has reeled off four-straight impressive wins to move to 5-1 and the Ducks will be a
serious national player if they can keep winning. Oregon has won and covered each of the last
four meetings in this series and the Ducks are allowing 144 fewer yards per game on the year.
Washington has excelled in the home underdog role but slowing down an Oregon offense that
has been on a roll will be a very difficult challenge. With two weeks to get ready for this matchup
Oregon should deliver another impressive showing. Washington has been a fun team to
watch but the defense could really have a lot of problems in this match-up as Oregon has
been posting huge numbers on the ground. OREGON BY 13
TEXAS TECH (-21) Texas A&M 6:00 PM
After two early season losses Texas Tech has cruised to wins each of the last three weeks.
The offense has not been quite as productive as expected but the defense has surprisingly
strong. After a promising 3-0 start Texas A&M has dropped three straight and last week’s loss
came in blowout fashion. Tech has completely dominated this series in recent years and the
Red Raiders have not been a team to go-against at home with outstanding spread numbers.
Texas Tech has played a higher quality schedule and the only road game that A&M has
played was last week’s disastrous loss. There won’t be any value with the Red Raiders but the
A&M sec ondary is banged up and Texas Tech continues to prove it is a program that intends
to stay towards the top even with significant roster turnover. TEXAS TECH BY 28
Penn State (-4½) MICHIGAN 2:30 PM
The Nittany Lions dominated in the snow last week and on the year Penn State has outgained
every opponent. They face Michigan squad that has been just as productive on
offense, posting 37 points and 426 yards per game. The Penn State defense is allowing just
over eight points per game but the team has faced a rather weak schedule. Michigan has
actually been out-gained in four of seven games as the defense is allowing 363 yards per
game. Historically Michigan has had a lot of success in this series and the Wolverines have
been very adept home underdogs. Last seas on Penn State won 46-17 in this series but a
much closer affair should be expected this season. Turnovers have been a problem for
Michigan but at home the Wolverines should play a close game. Both Michigan losses came
in very competitive games and the Wolv erines can score quickly to keep pace and have also
shown the ability to come back if falling behind early. PENN STATE BY 3
Oklahoma (-6½) KANSAS 12:00 PM
Kansas fell behind early and rallied to take the lead last week at Colorado but ultimately fell
short for the first loss of the season. Amazingly Oklahoma has already lost three times this
season but BYU, Miami, and Texas figure to be highly ranked teams all season. Injuries have
taken a toll for the Sooners but the defense is capable of carrying the team. Even through a
very tough schedule Oklahoma is allowing less than ten points per game and nearly 85 fewer
yards per game than Kansas gives up. Kansas is unlikely to be able to run the ball against the
Sooners and when Colorado stopped the run last week the Jayhawks struggled. Kansas has
had a productive offensive team but the schedule has been incredibly weak. Oklahoma
bounced back for a dominant win after each of the last two losses even with back-up QB
Landry Jones. The Sooners have lost three games but by a combined total of five points so
this is a still a team to be reckoned with in the Big XII but Kansas could be capable of a
bounce back effort on a tough home field. . OKLAHOMA BY 4
Texas (-13½) MISSOURI 12:00 PM
Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert was not a 100 percent last week and it showed with several
turnovers as Missouri lost despite a yardage advantage. Texas held on for a big win last week
against Oklahoma but it was hardly an impressive showing and the Longhorns could be
vulnerable in upcoming conference games. Texas has only covered once this season and this
will continue to be an overvalued team as long as they stay undefeated. Texas has been a
very difficult team to run against but Missouri has had success in games where they have
been forced exclusively through the air as there is great size and talent in the receiving corps.
Texas won big in last year’s meeting but so far this year Gabbert has actually out-played Colt
McCoy in several statistical categories. This could be a letdown game for the Longhorns and
Missouri needs to bounce back after tough losses in two games they could have won. Texas
is undefeated and highly ranked but this has not looked like a national title contender yet this
season and playing in Columbia as a solid road favorite is a tough order. TEXAS BY 10
NAVY (-2½) Wake Forest 2:30 PM
These teams played twice last season with Navy winning in the regular season and Wake
Forest winning the bowl game match-up. Wake Forest enters this game off an ugly road
performance and the Deacons have lost both road games this season. Navy is now a winner
of four consecutive games but the competition has been quite weak and two wins required
overtime. Navy should enjoy a significant rushing edge in this match-up and through
somewhat comparable quality schedules the Navy defense has been quite a bit stronger.
Wake Forest has scored just 13 points per game on the road and this should be a much
bigger game for Navy. In nearly every measure Navy looks like the superior team and this is a
short price on what should be the better team. Wake Forest is certainly better than they
looked last week but this is not any easier of a situation. NAVY BY 7
COLORADO STATE (-9½) San Diego State 3:00 PM
After a very promising start to the season Colorado State has now dropped four consecutive
games and the Rams have lost ATS in four straight meetings in this series. Despite the losing
streak Colorado State has covered in each of the last eight lined home games and the Rams
have been the much better rushing team. Colorado State has also faced a significantly more
challenging schedule. Although San Diego State is in a rebuilding mode the Aztecs have
posted a few very respectable efforts in recent weeks. The last two games have come at
home however and this is not a program that has had a lot of recent road success. Although
Colorado State has allowed more yards, these teams are giving up a similar amount of points
per game. Colorado State has a solid home field edge and the Rams have played against
better competition. COLORADO STATE BY 14
UTAH (-10) Air Force 3:00 PM
The Utes are not getting a lot of attention this season but this is a team with only one loss in
the past two seasons. The loss came on the road in a close game with Oregon and since Utah
has rebounded with three consecutive wins including the last two on the road. Utah is 10-5
ATS in the past 15 home games but Air Force has covered in nine of the last twelve meetings.
The Air Force defense is allowing just eleven points per game but the caliber of schedule has
not been remotely close. This series has been very tight the last four years and although Utah
should have a few advantages Air Force is likely to hang around and get on the scoreboard.
Amazingly the underdog is 10-0-1 the last eleven meetings in this series as the statistics can
often be thrown out between these teams. UTAH BY 7
NEVADA (-13) Idaho 3:05 PM
One of the best stories of the season has been Idaho as the Vandals are 6-1 and bowl
eligible. Idaho is 7-0 ATS on the season yet will play as nearly two touchdown underdogs this
week. After a slow start Nevada has put together three straight wins and the Wolf Pack remain
a dominant team at home with a 17-6-1 record in the last 24 games in Reno. Idaho has
covered in nine of the last ten as underdogs however. Nevada is the top rushing team in the
nation and the relentless attack may wipe out the great start to the season for Nevada. After
starting 0-3 Nevada was counted out by most but this is a team that is battle tested and could
play a vital role in the WAC standings. NEVADA BY 11
ARIZONA (-9) Ucla 5:30 PM
Historically UCLA has been on an excellent run as an underdog but the Bruins are the losers
of three straight games S/U and ATS, all as slight underdogs. Through a tougher schedule
Arizona has posted nine points and 133 more yards per game on offense while only being
marginally worse defensively. The Wildcats have two losses but one came against
Washington in a game they controlled the whole way and the other was a respectable road
loss at Iowa that is looking fine at this point in the season. Arizona has controlled this series
with large yardage margins the past two years and Arizona is 8-2 ATS at home in the past ten
home games. The season has spiraled out of control for UCLA and getting things back
together against a very solid team will be difficult. In every Pac -10 game Arizona has scored
at least as many points as the most UCLA has scored all season in a game. Look for Arizona
to step forward from the middle of the pack with this win. ARIZONA BY 14
CALIFORNIA (-36) Washington State 3:30 PM
After two terrible performances Cal got back in the win column in a big way, crushing UCLA.
Washington State has had two weeks to prepare for this game but the Cougars have been
out-gained by at leas t 130 yards in every game. California has covered in eight straight home
games but Washington State has had some success in this series with covers in six of the last
eight meetings. Last season Cal won 66-3 on the road but in 2007 the Bears barely escaped
at home 20-17. Statistically there is no comparison between these teams but Washington
State has had to face one of the more difficult slates in the nation. Cal has been a streaky
team but this line has been adjusted way too high as the Bear defense is allowing over 23
points per game and will allow a few scores in this game. CALIFORNIA BY 28
Temple (-1) TOLEDO 6:00 PM
The Rockets held on for a win last week but Toledo could be down to QB #3 this week as
injuries continue to be a problem. Historically Toledo has been a very difficult team to beat at
home and the Rockets have been an incredibly productive team on offense, averaging 458
yards per game. Temple has been a bit better on defense but the Owls have played a weaker
schedule so far this season. Temple is quietly 3-0 in conference play and the Owls have been
solid ATS road performers. Temple now has won four straight games but that includes two
wins over winless teams and even with a back-up QB Toledo can rely on its running game to
move the ball. Temple faces an upgrade in competition this week and It could prove costly in
the first conference loss for the Owls. Temple is 10-5 in the last 15 road games but this is a
tough venue for an opponent to win at. TOLEDO BY 7
MISSISSIPPI (-5½) Arkansas 11:30 AM
The Razorbacks appeared on the verge of a huge upset last week but fell just short. It will be
difficult for the same focus to come this week following such a stretch of big games. Arkansas
has proven worthy against solid competition this season but the defense is allowing nearly
400 yards per game. Mississippi has allowed just 13 points per game but the Rebels have
faced a dramatically easier schedule than Arkansas. Last season Mississippi won at Arkansas
23-21 in a game that was very even statistically. Arkansas has covered in eleven of the last 15
meetings in this series but this may be a better situation for Ole Miss. The Rebels lack an
impressive win and have done little to justify a high preseason ranking but a letdown could be
in effect for the Razorbacks. Arkansas will likely be overvalued coming off the impressive
effort against Florida but this team could be out of gas. MISSISSIPPI BY 10
CINCINNATI (-17) Louisville 2:30 PM
The Bearcats moved to 6-0 with a big primetime win last week but appeared to lose QB Tony
Pike in the process. Some reports say that Pike actually could be back this week despite dire
early scenarios. For the season Cincinnati is scoring over 40 points per game and while
allowing just 14 per game and the Bearcats are gaining some degree of respect for the Big
East. Cincinnati is just 1-5 in the last six games as home favorites however but Louisville is a
team that seems to be doing just enough to lose. The Cardinals are 2-4 on the season and a
coaching change appears eminent. This series has been very tight the past three years but
the favorite has covered in nine of the past twelve meetings. Even if Pike is unable to play,
back-up Zach Collaros proved capable last week, making plays in the air and on the ground.
This will be the second straight week on the road for Louisville and Cincinnati looks like an
elite team showing no signs of letting up. CINCINNATI BY 24
SOUTHERN MISS (-20½) Tulane 6:00 PM
The Golden Eagles were out-gained last week but still found a way to win and cover. Back-up
QB Martevious Young showed his inexperience but for the most part avoided costly mistakes
in the win over Memphis. It has been a weak schedule but with four wins the Golden Eagles
appear to be in good position for another bowl trip. Tulane is scoring about half as many
points as Southern Miss while allowing almost 36 points per game. A one-point win over Army
is the lone FBS win for the Green Wave and the defense is allowing 192 yards per game on
the ground. Southern Miss is just 3-11 in the last 14 games as double-digit favorites and with
marginal QB play it will be tough to cover this big number. Tulane has not provided a lot of
reasons for optimism but QB Joe Kemp has been fairly efficient and Southern Miss has
actually been out-gained in four of the last five games. SOUTHERN MISS BY 13
Central Florida (-10½) RICE 2:30 PM
Rice is now 0-7 on the season including three home losses. The Owls are scoring just 16
points per game while allowing 45 points and 470 yards per game. Central Florida has not
been much better on offense but the Golden Knights are a strong defensive team. Central
Florida played respectably close with an elite Miami team last week and UCF is 4-1 ATS on
the season. The Knights lost both road games in close games however so expecting this team
to win in a blowout may be asking too much. UCF is just 1-8-1 the last ten games as road
favorites while Rice is on a 17-11 run as a home underdog. Central Florida has been an
excellent defensive team against the run but Rice is not a team that tries to run the ball often
and the passing game can be productive if turnovers are avoided. After playing Miami very
tough this could be a tough spot on the schedule and long travel is required for this game. It is
certainly risky to back Rice but this looks like too many points. UCF BY 6
KANSAS STATE (-3) Colorado 12:00 PM
Both of these struggling Big XII teams came up big wins last week to rectify postseason
hopes. Kansas State dominated Texas A&M for a 62-14 blowout, taking advantage of
interceptions and big plays on special teams. Colorado required a tense finish to hang on but
built a big lead to end an undefeated run for Kansas. Every team in the Big XII North has a
loss and Kansas State technically leads the division currently at 2-1. Colorado has played a
much tougher schedule on the year and the statistics have shown it as the Buffaloes are
allowing over 80 more yards than they gain each game. Last season Colorado won 14-13 at
home in a fairly even statistical game but Kansas State has covered in each of the last four
meetings. Colorado is just 6-14 in the last 20 road games but this is a team that has covered
in four straight games and has been playing significantly better since early in the year. K-State
has played a weak home schedule and this could be a problematic match-up as Colorado has
been very tough against the run in recent games. COLORADO BY 6
Iowa (-2) MICHIGAN STATE 6:05 PM
Iowa has not been overly impressive but the Hawkeyes play fundamental football and don’t
make many mistakes. As a result this is an undefeated team that is climbing the rankings and
the last hope for the Big Ten to make a national splash. Iowa has one of the best turnover
margins in the nation and also one of the best defenses against the pass. Opponents can rush
on Iowa and the Hawkeyes have not featured a great rushing attack of their own however
which could cause problems at some point. Michigan State did not play a great game last
week but rallied late for a win over Northwestern, making for three cons ecutive wins. The
Spartans have out-gained its opponent in all but one game this year. The home team has won
S/U in each of the last nine meetings in this series and Michigan State QB Kirk Cousins has
been the more efficient passer in this match-up. Through a fairly similar schedule Michigan
State has been the more productive team and if the Spartans avoid costly mistakes an upset
is very possible although Iowa is tough to go-against right now . IOWA BY 1
BYU (PK) Tcu 6:30 PM
Most assume this game will decide the Mountain West champion and a potential BCS buster
although Utah may have something to say about that still. TCU grades as the far better team
at this point in the season and the Horned Frogs have not lost while BYU has. Last season
TCU won 32-7 with a huge rushing advantage and though he has not been as prolific, TCU
QB Andy Dalton has been much more efficient than the more acclaimed BYU starter Max Hall.
Through a tougher schedule TCU is allowing 100 fewer yards per game and nine fewer points
per game while TCU has also featured the stronger rushing attack on offense. Surprisingly
BYU has failed to cover in each of the last six home games and the win over Oklahoma and
the loss to Florida State both look much worse at this point in the year. TCU’s wins at Virginia
and at Clemson look much better right now and the Frogs have proven the ability to control a
game away from home. This is certainly a huge game for both teams and TCU simply has
been more impressive at this point in the year. TCU BY 6
Florida (-22) MISSISSIPPI STATE 6:30 PM
The Gators have covered in eleven straight road games but this is a series the team has
struggled with covering just once in the last six meetings. Florida narrowly escaped at home
against Arkans as last week and the Gators have really accomplished little this season as they
have been held to 23 or fewer points in three of four SEC games. Mississippi State has
struggled with turnovers but statistically has been an impressive team. The Bulldogs have outgained
five of seven foes this season despite a 3-4 record and all but one loss has been a
very competitive effort against a quality opponent. Believe it or not but Mississippi State has
won S/U each of the last three meetings in this series in Starkville though the last win was in
’04. Georgia is on deck for the Gators and Mississippi State is rushing for 219 yards per game
through a schedule that has been just as tough as Florida’s. FLORIDA BY 10
HOUSTON (-17½) Smu 6:30 PM
The spread is greatly inflated as the Cougars are getting a strong backing with their 4-1 ATS
record and the ability to score a lot of points. SMU sits ahead of Houston in the C-USA
standings however and despite being out-gained in all but one game this season the
Mustangs have covered in four of the last five contests. SMU has also covered in four of the
last five meetings with Houston and this series has been decided by ten points or less five
straight years. Both teams are terrible defensively but Houston is actually allowing 55 more
yards per game. The Cougars are also on a 10-22-1 ATS run as a double-digit favorite. Much
has been made of Houston’s quality schedule with three major conference wins but SMU’s
schedule grades far tougher overall despite fewer big-name programs. This has been a tight
series and few realize how quickly SMU has improved. HOUSTON BY 10
Fresno State (-25) NEW MEXICO STATE 9:20 PM
Fresno State delivered a strong win last week led by a relentless rushing attack but the
Bulldogs do call off the dogs late which has made them vulnerable to a backdoor cover as
some ended up pushing last week as San Jose State had the final score. New Mexico State
has been out-gained in every game this season yet has managed to win three games. The
Aggies have averaged just 14 points and 250 yards per game as Fresno has nearly doubled
those figures. On defense these teams have similar overall numbers but NMS is allowing 198
yards per game on the ground and the highly rated Fresno rushing attack should enjoy a big
day on the way to another convincing win. FRESNO BY 31
LSU (-8) Auburn 6:30 PM
Back-to-back losses as favorites have calmed a promising start for Auburn but the offensive
edges in this match-up should be significant. LSU has only allowed 14 points per game but
they have allowed a lot of yards and this is a team that is likely still overrated. Auburn has
covered in three of the last four in this series and LSU is just 2-12-1 ATS in the last 15 home
games. LSU has played a little bit tougher schedule and will enter off a bye week but this has
not been a team that looks trustworthy as a favorite. Auburn’s running game should keep
them alive in this match-up and this is a team capable of bouncing back after two tough losses
in SEC play the last two weeks. LSU BY 4
Unlv (-3½) NEW MEXICO 7:00 PM
The Runnin’ Rebels were projected by most to be a serious bowl contender but this is a team
that has now lost four in a row and has only covered in one game all year. New Mexico is 0-6
with only one spread win as well but the Lobos might be in a good position this week at home
and coming off a bye week. New Mexico has covered in seven of the last ten in this series and
UNLV can hardly be relied on laying points on the road even if the Lobos have turned in
several ugly performances this season. UNLV is 6-20-2 ATS in the last 28 road games and as
bad as New Mexico has been on defense, UNLV has allowed similar yardage totals. It is
tough to come up with reasons to justify backing New Mexico but the Lobos should take
advantage of a bye week to get a great game plan in order. NEW MEXICO BY 3
USC (-20½) Oregon State 7:00 PM
The Beavers are a team that has continually given USC problems and catching the Trojans off
long travel in a hyped game at Notre Dame could be a favorable situation. The losses for
Oregon State this season both came in competitivegames against Arizona and Cincinnati and
once again this looks like an overlooked team that will finish with a solid record. The scoring
numbers on offense are nearly identical for these teams and USC is just 1-4 ATS in the past
five games as this is not a team that is blowing out opponents with huge outbursts. Oregon
State is 2-0 S/U on the road this season while USC is 3-9 ATS the last twelve years following
the Notre Dame game. Oregon State QB Sean Canfield has far better numbers than USC’s
Matt Barkley and overall Oregon State is on an 11-4 ATS run. USC BY 13
STANFORD (-7) Arizona State 9:15 PM
Both teams have four wins already this season and this will be a critical swing game in the
middle of the Pac-10. Arizona State is coming off a narrow win in the closing seconds while
Stanford is coming off back-to-back losses following a promising start to the year. Arizona
State is just 2-8-1 the last eleven games as underdogs and Stanford has covered in nine
straight home games. ASU has also played far and away the weakest schedule of any Pac -10
team and Stanford has been the much more productive offensive team. The Cardinal rush for
over 200 yards per game and the worse defensive numbers can be partly attributed to the
much tougher schedule. Arizona State QB Danny Sullivan is completing just 54 percent of his
passes with just as many picks as touchdowns and Stanford should be able to pull away in
this match-up, hungry for a win after two tough losses. STANFORD BY 17
Boise State (-24) HAWAII 11:00 PM
Hawaii has covered in the las t four meetings with Boise and the Warriors still had decent
production last week despite playing with a #3 QB. Hawaii has allowed over 400 yards per
game however, equally bad against the rush and the pass. Boise State has been a bit
lackluster in the last two games so a convincing road win might be nice to keep the Broncos in
the national conversation. QB Kellen Moore has a 16:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and
Boise State has covered in seven of the last nine road games. Going against Boise is not a
good long-term investment strategy and even on the road the Broncos should keep the foot on
the gas for a convincing win as therewill be plenty of opportunities. BOISE BY 28
LOUISIANA (-3) Florida Atlantic 4:00 PM
Florida Atlantic is 1-4 and Louisiana is 4-2 but these teams rate very closely and the Owls
have played a far tougher schedule. FAU has covered each of the last four years in this
series . Louisiana is 2-0 in Sun Belt play but they have faced two of the weaker teams in the
league and neither win was thoroughly impressive. Louisiana has actually been out-gained in
four of the last five games despite taking three wins in that span. The Cajuns suffered several
injuries in last week ’s game and FAU could be a solid play as a dog. FAU BY 3
ARKANSAS STATE (-10½) Florida International 6:00 PM
These teams each have just one win despite elevated expectations for the year. Last year
Florida International won 22-21 with a late score and Arkansas State is 2-10 ATS in the past
twelve lined games. Through similar schedules Arkansas State has posted far better
defensive numbers but International has been a game underdog and a lot of the yardage
deficit came against major conference foes including an underdog cover against Alabama.
FIU has scored 30 plus four straight weeks and this will be a tough team to cover up by
double-digits in what will be a critical game for both teams. ARKANSAS STATE BY 4
TROY (NL) North Texas 2:30 PM
North Texas lost a very even game last week to fall to 1-5 and the Mean Green may be again
without their QB. Troy is the team to beat in the Sun Belt and the Trojans have won and
covered in four straight games with sizable yardage edges. Statistically these teams are
actually quite close despite the great contrast in the records but Troy did have to play Florida
and the Trojans have played a tougher overall schedule. Troy has won and covered easily the
past two years in this series but North Texas may give a fight here with a line that likely will be
inflated based on the S/U records. TROY BY 13
KENTUCKY (-15½) UL-Monroe 6:00 PM
Monroe is 5-1 ATS on the season and 4-2 S/U as they currently lead the Sun Belt at 3-0.
Monroe would be wise to expend its energy getting ready for Troy next week rather than trying
to hang with Kentucky. The Wildcats are just 3-3 but they have had to face three of the top
SEC teams already this season. Outside of lopsided losses to the top two ranked teams in the
nation the Wildcats have acquitted themselves well and could make a surprising bowl run.
Kentucky won with a back-up QB at Auburn last week and the Wildcats have become a very
good rushing team. KENTUCKY BY 24
MID TENN STATE (-17) Western Kentucky 2:30 PM
Western Kentucky is on a 14-game losing streak but Middle Tennessee has also been a loser
the past two weeks despite a very promising start to the season. The Blue Raiders have been
solid in the favorite role even though they have not come close the last two games as small
underdogs. Western Kentucky has been out-gained in every game this season and the
numbers do not look promising for the Hilltoppers in this match-up. Western Kentucky is 3-2
ATS in the last five road games but the losing streak likely continues in a big way as MTSU
has proven to be a very solid team if properly motivated. MTSU BY 21
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 SAN FRANCISCO (+3) over Houston
RATING 4 DALLAS (-3½) over Atlanta
RATING 3 NY JETS (-6) over Oakland
RATING 2 CHICAGO (+2½) over Cincinnati
RATING 1 INDIANAPOLIS (-13) over St. Louis
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, and lines are obviously subject to change
BYE WEEK: BALTIMORE, DENVER, DETROIT, JACKSONVILLE, SEATTLE, TENNESSEE
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2009
San Diego (NL) KANSAS CITY 12:00 PM
The Chargers faced a make-or-break game Monday night last week and that result could
greatly impact how the team plays the rest of the way. The Chargers have been the worst
rushing team in the NFL by a wide margin but the offense has produced big numbers in the
passing game to dwarf what Kansas City has done. The biggest problems for both teams
have come on defense. Through six games Kansas City has allowed 24 points per game and
coming off finally getting a win could be a letdown situation for the Chiefs. San Diego has
been a solid road favorite in recent history and though the Chiefs were once always a play -onteam
as a home underdog, that rule has changed as the recent results have been marginal.
The Chargers could be a team that continues to fade if they lose to Denver and are buried in
the AFC West so be careful here as the Chiefs have some life. CHARGERS BY 7
Indianapolis (-13) ST. LOUIS (46) 12:00 PM
The winless versus the undefeated should greatly favor a rested Colts squad playing in a
friendly dome environment. The Colts have risen to the top of the NFL thanks to QB Manning
and although St. Louis has put together stronger efforts of late the Rams will not be able to
keep pace in this match-up. This is a steep line on the road but St. Louis is 3-11 the last 14
games as home underdogs and last week ’s OT loss was especially painful. The Colts would
be an average team without Manning but the Colts have been pouring on the points even late
with big leads and this is a team to continue to play on as Indianapolis has already won three
road games this season. While the Colts offense has been one of the best in the NFL as
expected, the defense has been very solid as well. COLTS BY 17
CINCINNATI (-2½) Chicago (42½) 3:15 PM
The Bears severely out-gained Atlanta last week but came up empty in three red zone trips
with a fumble, interception, and a loss on downs to end the game. Chicago has viable
receivers and a good defense but an area that has let the team down is special teams as a big
return allowed was a key play to set-up Atlanta’s winning drive. Cincinnati came back to earth
after a couple of big wins and the Bengals are just 1-6 ATS in the last seven home games.
Cincinnati’s defense is getting a bit of publicity but the team has allowed 45 more yards per
game than Chicago. The Bears have also not been the running team that many expected and
it has hurt them in goal line and 3rd and short situations as the Bears failed in several
opportunities last week. Cincinnati was exposed last week and the Bears will be in need of a
win following a very tough loss. Chicago has been tough against the run and the Bengals
have struggled when too reliant on the passing game. BEARS BY 3
Green Bay (-7) CLEVELAND (42½) 12:00 PM
The Browns have covered in three straight games and now will be a home underdog against a
suspect Packers team. Green Bay had a 26-0 win last week but the Packers have faced one
of the easier schedules in the league while Cleveland has faced the #1 schedule and the
Browns may be better than most realize. Cleveland continues to post ugly offensive numbers
but the defense has been solid and Green Bay has some serious protection issues having
allowed 25 sacks in five games. Statistically there is little support for Cleveland here but the
Browns are 10-5 in the last 15 games as home underdogs and the Packers will be facing a
tricky spot with the big Minnesota game on deck. PACKERS BY 3
PITTSBURGH (-4) Minnesota (45) 12:00 PM
The Steelers make some sense as a team to back at first glance as Minnesota has had a few
narrow wins in the 6-0 start and in terms of yardage the Vikings have not been that
impressive. Consider that the last three weeks Minnesota has had sizable leads late in the
games and the opponents have put up big numbers in the 4th quarter trying to catch up.
Baltimore did catch up last week in a near disaster but Minnesota was able to withstand that
to keep the win streak alive. Pittsburgh posted big passing yards last week against Cleveland
last week but the Steelers have not beaten a winning team this season. Undefeated
underdogs in game 7 or later are 5-1 ATS since 1980 and Minnesota seems to have
everything going its way even if there appears to be vulnerability. STEELERS BY 3
New England (-14) Tampa Bay (45) London, England 12:00 PM
The Bucs are 0-6 but there has been some promise shown with competitive efforts the past
two weeks. Tampa Bay has been a strong ATS performer as a double-digit underdog and the
Patriots will be overvalued coming of the snow blowout last week against winless Tennessee.
New England has endured a difficult schedule and this could be a taxing situation in a brand
new environment while facing steep expectations. New England benefited from five turnovers
last week which could leave them in a negative situation this week. The Patriots have not
been as strong away from home and the elements may not be as helpful this week. Tampa
Bay is getting much more solid QB play and the Bucs should actually be the superior rushing
team in this match-up. Defensively New England has been a far better team but this could be
a solid spot for an underdog on an inflated spread. PATRIOTS BY 10
HOUSTON (-3) San Francisco (44) 12:00 PM
The Texans scored a big win last week to move to 3-3 but this is not a team that is likely to
make the next step. The 49ers have had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off an
ugly loss and a sharp performance will be delivered. Houston’s defense has shown some
improvement in recent weeks but is still allowing over 350 yards per game. The Texans have
also featured a very marginal running game on the year and this could be a bad situation
playing as a home favorite against an intense defensive team. The 49ers are 5-0 in the last
five games as underdogs while Houston has not performed well when expected to win. Look
for a great effort from San Francisco as the Texans continue to take one step forward but then
another step back. San Francisco is a team that will be well prepared with the extra time off
and a big day on both sides could be expected. 49ERS BY 6
NY Jets (-6) OAKLAND (35) 3:05 PM
The Raiders are considered the worst team in the league by most but Oakland now has two
wins and last week ’s win was a true shocker taking out one of the NFC favorites. The Jets are
just 1-6 in the last seven games as road favorites and New York will face long travel this
week. QB Sanchez appeared to be in shock and with his normal confident charisma
evacuated after last week’s dreadful performance and the Jets have fallen back to earth after
a 3-0 start. The Raiders were able to run the ball well last week but Philadelphia quickly
shifted into pass only mode which played into the advantage for Oakland. The Jets are likely
to stick to the ground following a 318-yard rushing game and the Sanchez mistakes. New
York should still be the superior team in this match-up and Oakland has not been able to put
together back-to-back solid efforts. JETS BY 10
CAROLINA (NL) Buffalo 3:05 PM
Both struggling teams pulled out wins last week and the Bills did so with back-up QB Ryan
Fitzpatrick. Buffalo took advantage of six turnovers but still needed most of the overtime
period to get the win while the Panthers needed a late score to break a tie against winless
Tampa Bay. Carolina’s struggles have been played through one of the easiest schedules in
the league but the Panthers did show some promise by finally getting a big day from the
talented group of running backs. A big part of that is not falling behind early and the Bills have
not been a quick strikesquad. Carolina has been the vastly superior defensive team and the
holes in the Buffalo defense appear to be a great match-up advantage for Carolina’s running
game. The Panthers have been a decent home team and with back-to-back wins this is a
team that has a little momentum going and can catch the Bills in a tough situation facing a
second straight road game following a long OT game. PANTHERS BY 13
New Orleans (-6) MIAMI (46½) 3:15 PM
The Saints delivered in a big way in last week ’s undefeated showdown but there could be a
letdown facing a much different climate in Miami. The Saints have delivered a strong record
as a road favorite but Miami is a team on the rise coming off back-to-back wins and well
prepared off the bye week. Miami has faced one of the toughest schedules in the NFL as only
one opponent currently has a losing record. The Saints have great statistics on both sides of
the ball but the schedule has been fairly weak and they are built on a dome environment. New
Orleans has been much less productive away from home and the Saints have caught a lot of
breaks with turnovers this season. A close call might be coming for New Orleans as this
should be a favorable underdog situation for Miami. SAINTS BY 3
DALLAS (-3½) Atlanta (47) 3:15 PM
The Cowboys have been the second most productive offensive team in terms of yardage but
the numbers have not added up as well on the scoreboard. Atlanta is now 4-1 after a big
Sunday night win but the Falcons caught tons of breaks in the last two games and this looks
like one of the more phony contenders at this point in the season. The running game is not
close to as strong as last season and the defense has been there for the taking, allowing 360
yards per game. Atlanta has only allowed 15 points per game but those numbers will catch up
as the Falcons have seen several opponents miss on scoring opportunities. One big game
against the 49ers is skewing the season statistics for the Falcons and this should be a
challenging road environment. COWBOYS BY 7
NY GIANTS (-7) Arizona (46½) 7:20 PM
Most have viewed the Cardinals as a fluke with last year’s Super Bowl run as the results have
been marginal this season but look no further than the schedule as Arizona has had a tough
slate early in the year. In contrast the Giants had faced the weakest schedule in the league
before last week ’s game. The big showdown with the Saints turned into a laugher as New
York was horribly exposed on both sides of the ball. The Giants have been a tough home
team but Arizona has covered in four consecutive games as underdogs. Arizona has a limited
running game which will be a major disadvantage in this match-up but the Cardinal defense
has been much better than most assume. This is an inflated line as the Cardinals are still an
explosive offensive team that will be a favorable team to back catching more than seven
points. The Giants are yet to have an impressive win as wins over the Cowboys and Redskins
are not even valuable at this point in the year. GIANTS BY 3
MONDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2009
Philadelphia (-6½) WASHINGTON 7:35 PM
Changing the QB and the play -calling is not likely to be a magic fix for the Redskins who are
on the way to a disastrous season that is likely to have many casualties. The Redskins can
not be trusted to score points and even though this has been a decent defensive team the
Eagles should have an excellent plan of attack following an embarrassing loss to the Raiders
last week. Philadelphia has great numbers on both sides of the ball even though it did not add
up to success last week and a veteran club will get prepared in a much more effective fashion
this week. Washington has a shot at redemption but the Redskins can not be trusted given the
inability to score and the losses to some of the worst teams in the league through the #32
rated schedule. There is plenty of history in this match-up be solving the disarray for the
Redskins with a few shake-up moves is not going to happen. EAGLES BY 10
Last Week's College Stats Last Week's College Stats
Match-Up Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO Match-Up Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO
Arkansas State 51 10 18 34 29 20 39 234 3 Kent State -6.5 28 21 41 152 11 25 195 2
UL-Monroe -2 16 14 41 124 8 17 150 1 Eastern Michigan 51.5 6 14 44 183 10 19 75 2
Boise State -9 28 25 44 193 22 32 187 2 Hawaii 62 23 26 24 77 31 45 367 2
Tulsa 56 21 12 26 88 15 28 207 0 Idaho -7.5 35 20 39 194 14 17 226 1
Cincinnati -1.5 34 21 37 189 16 32 212 1 BYU -17.5 38 27 52 166 27 39 346 0
South Florida 48.5 17 17 36 168 15 34 208 2 San Diego State 54 28 16 16 20 22 34 322 1
Pittsburgh -6.5 24 21 46 223 16 24 153 2 Stanford 53.5 38 26 40 150 22 36 434 2
Rutgers 46 17 16 20 38 23 41 248 2 Arizona -4.5 43 23 14 138 40 52 415 2
Oklahoma 52.5 13 18 22 -16 26 49 327 5 Illinois -3.5 14 25 41 185 22 37 258 3
Texas -3 16 20 40 142 21 40 127 3 Indiana 54 27 23 31 149 23 40 333 1
NC State 47 20 22 27 79 31 55 315 3 Memphis 54 16 24 35 170 26 42 255 2
Boston College -2.5 52 20 43 293 13 25 187 0 Southern Miss -14.5 36 21 46 205 10 21 155 1
Ohio State -13.5 18 12 28 66 17 31 221 5 Northern Illinois -7.5 19 18 37 164 15 26 157 1
Purdue 45 26 24 31 80 31 52 281 3 Toledo 60.5 20 21 34 157 19 26 230 3
Bowling Green -3 31 24 24 79 28 41 376 0 Louisville 47 25 24 47 162 24 31 295 4
Ball State 56 17 18 42 273 10 30 131 1 Connecticut -13 38 22 42 208 14 21 273 1
Northwestern 49.5 14 22 29 79 34 47 291 2 Kansas -8 30 23 22 -8 32 54 431 2
Michigan State -14 24 19 34 94 21 31 281 1 Colorado 54.5 34 21 43 147 14 25 175 3
Iowa 47.5 20 16 39 65 17 23 218 1 Miami, FL -12.5 27 26 46 70 20 27 293 0
Wisconsin -2 10 14 33 87 15 25 143 3 Central Florida 46 7 11 24 53 13 31 176 1
Virginia -3.5 20 9 38 63 14 26 138 1 Arkansas 58 20 13 34 133 12 27 224 0
Maryland 45 9 17 33 126 16 38 158 4 Florida -24.5 23 24 46 136 17 27 255 4
Wake Forest 48.5 3 13 44 81 12 26 97 2 Navy -6.5 38 18 60 331 4 9 68 1
Clemson -7.5 38 16 33 195 15 24 187 2 SMU 53.5 35 21 27 176 19 41 200 0
Baylor 52.5 10 18 21 89 26 46 275 3 Washington 47.5 17 20 27 99 22 38 279 3
Iowa State -2.5 24 27 46 240 25 36 214 1 Arizona State -6.5 24 24 27 169 22 36 295 1
UAB 55 13 18 40 230 12 21 121 1 Utah -15 35 14 31 153 17 24 174 2
Mississippi -23 48 22 33 163 21 31 338 0 UNLV 60 15 23 33 91 25 47 236 2
Georgia -7.5 34 19 37 173 16 31 226 1 San Jose State 57.5 21 20 31 124 20 35 221 1
Vanderbilt 48 10 16 36 122 17 34 174 1 Fresno State -20 41 22 43 302 10 17 124 1
Kentucky 57 21 21 49 282 9 22 75 0 Louisiana -7 30 23 58 230 16 25 204 1
Auburn -14 14 16 49 220 11 25 95 1 Western Kentucky 51 22 15 33 167 9 17 141 3
Army 37 13 15 48 181 6 8 75 1 Troy -8 42 25 39 174 28 38 391 3
Temple -10.5 27 16 38 80 8 17 115 1 Florida Intl 58 33 24 36 38 28 50 265 1
Central Michigan -7 34 21 32 188 18 30 238 1 Florida Atlantic -1 44 29 40 220 21 40 308 0
Western Michigan 57 23 27 26 87 40 66 410 1 North Texas 61.5 40 23 36 270 17 24 246 2
Wyoming 45 0 16 35 100 14 31 74 1 Mississippi State -5 27 19 50 178 14 20 155 0
Air Force -11 10 17 69 267 1 5 2 0 Mid Tennessee St 54 6 14 25 42 19 39 206 4
Miami, OH 47 7 13 30 52 19 30 166 4 Delaware State 6 11 26 65 18 34 151 0
Ohio -14 28 22 33 226 16 32 172 1 Michigan NL 63 34 54 461 15 18 266 1
Nevada -7.5 35 20 46 313 10 24 189 2
Utah State 66.5 32 21 34 74 25 42 353 1 Last Week's NFL Stats
Minnesota 44.5 0 7 18 37 10 22 101 1 CHIEFS 36.5 14 16 35 110 17 32 158 0
Penn State -17 20 21 43 177 21 32 287 0 REDSKINS -6.5 6 7 20 118 15 30 147 2
Marshall 51.5 7 16 34 58 17 35 149 4 TEXANS 46.5 28 26 31 87 28 40 385 2
West Virginia -20.5 24 13 31 147 16 23 166 2 BENGALS -3.5 17 14 17 46 23 35 250 3
South Carolina 43.5 6 19 27 64 20 46 214 2 BROWNS 38 14 12 23 91 9 26 106 4
Alabama -18 20 17 38 264 10 20 92 4 STEELERS -14 27 28 36 140 23 35 403 4
USC -10 34 21 33 121 19 29 380 1 RAVENS 45.5 31 20 18 81 28 43 367 0
Notre Dame 50.5 27 27 31 82 25 44 285 0 VIKINGS -3 33 19 31 167 21 29 259 0
California -3.5 45 17 41 289 14 23 205 0 RAMS 42.5 20 13 18 55 22 34 207 1
UCLA 44 26 17 26 137 21 42 311 2 JAGUARS -9.5 23 33 38 166 30 43 326 3
Houston -17 44 31 36 182 30 43 334 0 GIANTS 47.5 27 17 19 84 18 36 241 2
Tulane 68.5 16 26 43 187 22 34 250 1 SAINTS -3 48 28 39 133 23 30 360 0
Texas Tech 59 31 15 25 25 23 32 234 0 PANTHERS -3 28 22 48 267 9 17 55 3
Nebraska -10.5 10 16 30 70 23 38 215 2 BUCCANEERS 40.5 21 12 25 124 11 17 121 2
Texas A&M -5.5 14 19 23 -13 21 45 314 5 LIONS 48 0 10 18 78 11 25 71 3
Kansas State 59 62 24 52 232 15 19 192 0 PACKERS -14 26 23 30 107 29 37 328 2
Virginia Tech -3.5 23 13 31 175 10 14 159 2 EAGLES -14.5 9 14 14 67 22 46 216 0
Georgia Tech 54 28 19 63 309 1 7 51 2 RAIDERS 40.5 13 18 35 116 17 28 209 2
Missouri 55.5 17 16 24 68 22 44 325 4 CARDINALS 46 27 21 26 62 34 43 282 2
Oklahoma State -7 33 16 35 124 22 36 227 0 SEAHAWKS -3 3 7 11 14 11 30 114 2
Rice 54 13 17 26 78 29 50 263 3 BILLS 35.5 16 20 42 142 15 30 154 2
East Carolina -18.5 49 20 43 173 22 30 286 3 JETS -9.5 13 15 40 318 10 30 96 6
Akron 46 17 19 30 134 17 34 200 3 TITANS 38.5 0 9 36 193 2 14 -7 5
Buffalo -8 21 19 37 107 20 35 205 2 PATRIOTS -9 59 32 30 193 38 45 426 0
Colorado State 50 6 10 35 70 10 20 112 1 BEARS 46 14 21 23 83 27 43 290 3
TCU -22.5 44 26 46 275 16 24 224 1 FALCONS -4 21 16 23 68 19 33 185 2
New Mexico State 42 7 6 25 74 13 20 68 3 BRONCOS
Louisiana Tech -20.5 45 30 56 315 14 24 225 1 CHARGERS
4th Quarter Covers:
Boise State led 28-14 entering the 4th
quarter but the only scoring in the final
15:00 minutes was an 89-yard Tulsa
drive to take the cover back. In one of
the biggest games of the day, sloppy
play dominated as Oklahoma and
Texas were tied at 13 -13 entering the
final quarter but Texas got the winning
field goal and interceptions sealed the
win and a push for most though some
OU backers would have won with 3½
available throughout the week in some
spots. Miami led just 17-7 late in the 3rd
quarter but pulled away with ten points
in the 4th to win and cover against UCF.
Maryland led Virginia 9-3 until just over
two minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. A
32-yard interception return was a key
play and Virginia seale d the win and
cover despite only 201 yards. The final
Cavalier score came after Maryland
was forced to go for a 4 th and long from
their own one. Iowa and Wisconsin
were tied at 10 -10 entering the 4th in
game Wisconsin led 10-0 at one point.
Interceptions helped Iowa pull away and
stay undefeated. Army and Temple
were tied at 13 -13 late in game Army
had a big yardage edge. A late fumble
deep in their own territory cost Army the
cover as the Owls went on to score to
push the margin to 14. Ohio led just 14-
7 until just seconds remaining in the
third quarter, but pulled away in the 4th
quarter against Miami. Utah was up 28-
6 but lost the cover in the third quarter
as UNLV scored twice but a late score
got the cash back for the Utes. Utah
State led entering the 4th quarter as an
underdog but Nevada scored twice to
push the lead to eleven with just over
four minutes to go. Utah State scored
with just over two minutes left to get the
ATS win back. Fresno State led 41-14
but San Jose State had a 59-yard pass
play sco re with nine seconds left to
leave many with a push at a 20-point
margin. Louisville scored as time
expired to cut Connecticut’s lead down
to 13, which was the closing number for
most. The extra point was missed
however as many eager bettors
watched with great interest. USC led
27-14 entering the 4th quarter but Notre
Dame rallied to get within seven and
actually was given multiple chances to
tie the game up in the closing seconds.
Stanford led 38 -29 entering the 4th
quarter but Arizona rallied to win 43-38
falling in between the early and the late
lines. A key spread play came as
Arizona went for two in the 3rd quarter
hoping to tie at 31 but failed. Arizona
State scored on a long pass play with
five seconds left to break a 17-17 tie
with Washington. Rice was down just
13-28 late in the third quarter even after
allowing a kickoff return for a
touchdown but East Carolina dominated
the 4th quarter to create a blowout final
margin. Southern Miss led 30-16 late in
the game but scored again in the final
minutes to push the final margin over all
spreads in one of big line movers of the
week. The Chiefs and Redskins were
tied at 6-6 entering the 4th quarter but
Kansas City kicked two field goals and
added a safety in the final four minutes
for their first win. The Vikings dominated
Baltimore for 50 minutes, leading 27-10
in the 4th quarter with huge yardage
advantages but Baltimore posted over
200 yards in the fourth quarter to storm
back while Minnesota settled for field
goals. Baltimore took the lead 31 -30 but
Minnesota got the go-ahead field goal
and the Ravens missed their
opportunity to do the same. Carolina led
21-7 late in the third quarter before
Tampa Bay scored on a kickoff return
touchdown and an interception return.
The Panthers would still win and cover
with the final touchdown coming with
just over 30 seconds to go in the game.
The Bears crushed Atlanta in terms of
yardage but came up empty in three red
zone trips in the game. With just over
six minutes to go Chicago tied the game
at 14 -14 but aided by a great kickoff
return the Falcons scored with just over
three minutes to go to take the lead.
Chicago went right down the field but a
4th and inches turned into a 4th and six
with a false start deep in Atlanta
territory and the Bears could not come
up with the answer to force OT.
NCAA SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Home Chalk Failure Retry
PLAY AGAINST: Any college football double-digit home
favorite that lost S/U at home in the previous game.
68-39-1, 63.6% since 2003
PLAY AGAINST: Nebraska (PLAY ON: Iowa State)
Tighten It: If double-digit home favorite was also a double-digit favorite in the
home loss the previous week.
15-6-1, 71.4% since 2003
Fits:Nebraska (PLAY ON: Iowa State)
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Rested Home Underdogs
PLAY ON: Any NFL home underdog of six or more coming
off a bye week.
33-10, 76.7% since 1980
PLAY ON: Miami Dolphins
Tighten It: If the home dog won S/U in its last game
10-2, 83.3% since 1980
Fits: Miami
OVER/UNDER PLAYS OF THE WEEK
NCAA: ‘UNDER’ Iowa State/Nebraska
Nebraska has an elite defense but the offense has struggled to get
anything going until late in the games. Iowa State has posted strong
numbers the last three weeks but the competition takes a big step
up and the Cyclone QB won’t be 100 percent if he plays. Nebraska
could change QBs as well so this could be a defensive battle.
NFL: ‘OVER’ Minnesota/Pittsburgh
Both teams pride themselves on stopping the run which means
there will be a lot of passing in this game. Conditions in Pittsburgh
might scare this total down but both teams have been very high
scoring on the season. Minnesota had to settle for field goals last
week or they likely would have scored in the 40s against the Ravens
and neither defense has been as effective as most expected. The
‘over’ has hit in four straight for both teams.
2009 SEASON TRENDS
NCAA (through October 17)
Home teams are 156-171-6 (27-24-2 last week)
Favorites are 159-176-7 (31-20-3 last week)
Double-Digit Favorites are 75-88-4 (11-10-2 last week)
Favorites of 20 or more are 25-34-1 (3-2-1 last week)
Home Favorites are 93-110-6 (16-9-2 last week)
Road Favorites are 61-63 (15-11 last week)
Teams in 2nd straight road games are 47-48-1 (7-7 last week)
NFL (through October 18 – Monday’s game pending)
Home teams are 44-41-1 (5-8 last week)
Favorites are 46-40-1 (5-8 last week)
Double-Digit Favorites are 9-6 (1-2 last week)
Home Favorites are 31-27-1 (4-7 last week)
Road Favorites are 14-13 (1-1 last week)
Teams in 2nd straight road games are 10-9 (2-0 last week)
Teams off bye weeks are 5-2 (2-1 last week)
Over/Unders are 43/42/1 (6/7 last week)
HISTORICALLY SPEAKING
All trends are Against the Spread unless noted:
Some pointspreads have been estimated and may not be accurate by game time
NCAA: Tulsa is 4-8 L12 as road favorites – UTEP is 8-4 L12 as home underdogs
Florida State is 10-16 on the road since ’04 – UNC is 1-14-1 S/U vs. FSU since ’83
Rutgers is 3-6 as road favorites since ’05 – Army is 7-18 as home underdogs since ’03
UAB is 9-14 on the road since ’06 – Marshall is 6-13-1 L20 as favorites
Akron is 10-16-1 L27 on the road – Syracuse is 5-10-1 at home since ‘07
Maryland is 6-13 L19 road games – Duke is 7-17 L24 home games
Georgia Tech is 6-12 vs. Virginia since ’91 – Virginia is 15-5 L20 as home underdogs
Clemson is 13-3 L16 as underdogs – Miami, FL is 8-15 L23 games at home
Illinois is 9-5 L13 road games – Purdue is 6-3 L9 vs. Illinois
Central Michigan is 0-4-2 as road favorites – Bowling Green is 4-15 L19 home games
Indiana is 15-32-3 on the road since ’00 – Northwestern is 3-11 L14 as favorites
Minnesota is 6-13 vs. Ohio St since ’86 – Ohio St is 20-13 as double-digit favorites since ‘05
South Florida is 7-2 L9 as underdogs – Pittsburgh is 6-10 L16 as favorites
Connecticut is 6-13 as road dogs since ’04 – West Virginia is 6-12-1 L19 as home favorites
Vanderbilt is 8-4-1 L13 as underdogs – South Carolina is 14-8-2 L24 as favorites
Iowa State is 18-7 as double-digit dogs since ’04 – Nebraska is 15-9 L26 as DD favorites
Ball State is 19-5 L24 road games – Eastern Michigan is 3-13 L16 home games
Northern Illinois is 1-9 L10 road games – Miami, OH is 5-12 L17 lined home games
Oklahoma State is 10-4 L14 as favorites – Baylor is 3-11 L14 as home underdogs
Kent State is 14-20-1 on road since ’04 – Ohio is 12-6 L18 home games
Buffalo is 9-1-1 L11 on the road – Western Michigan is 3-8 L11 as home favorites
Louisiana Tech is 1-10 L11 road games – Utah State is 6-0 L6 home games
Boston College is 10-6 vs. Notre Dame since ’87 – Notre Dame is 5-11 L16 as home favorites
Tennessee is 8-15 vs. Alabama since ’86 – Alabama is 10-21 as home favorites since ‘04
Oregon 5-0 S/U and ATS L5 vs. Washington – Washington is 23-16 as home dogs since ‘81
Texas A&M is 7-21 vs. Texas Tech since ’81 – Texas Tech is 74-50-2 at home since ‘85
Penn State is 3-7 L10 vs. Michigan – Michigan is 8-5 L13 as home underdogs
Oklahoma is 5-1 L6 as road favorites – Kansas is 28-45-1 as home dogs since ‘80
Texas is 5-8 L13 on the road – Missouri is 35-26-1 as home underdogs since ‘81
Wake Forest is 4-9-1 L14 as road favorites – Navy is 10-24-2 as home dogs since ‘89
San Diego State is 7-14 L21 road games – Colorado State is 8-0 L8 lined home games
Air Force is 9-3 L12 vs. Utah – Utah is 10-5 L15 home games
Idaho is 9-1 L10 as underdogs – Nevada is 17-6-1 L24 at home
UCLA is 20-9-1 L30 as underdogs – Arizona is 8-2 L10 at home
Washington State is 6-2 L8 vs. California – California is 8-0 L8 as home favorites
Temple is 10-5 L15 road games – Toledo is 28-12 L40 home games
Arkansas is 11-4 L15 vs. Mississippi – Mississippi is 7-10-1 L18 as home favorites
Louisville is 8-3 L11 vs. Cincinnati – Cincinnati is 1-5 L6 as home favorites
Tulane is 7-12-1 L20 vs. Southern Miss – Southern Miss is 3-11 L14 as double-digit fav orites
Central Florida is 1-8-1 L10 as road favorites – Rice is 17-11 L28 as home underdogs
Colorado is 6-14 L20 on the road – Kansas State is 1-5 L6 lined home games
TCU is 16-21-3 on the road since ’03 – BYU is 0-6 L6 home games
Florida is 1-5 L6 vs. Mississippi State – Mississippi State is 5-1 L6 as home underdogs
SMU is 6-2 L8 vs. Houston – Houston is 10-22-1 as double-digit favorites since ‘92
Fresno State is 3-9 L12 as road favorites – New Mexico State is 2-5 L7 as home underdogs
Auburn is 1-7 L8 on the road – LSU is 2-12-1 L15 home games
UNLV is 3-7 L10 vs. New Mexico – New Mexico is 10-16-1 L27 home games
Oregon State is 6-3 L9 vs. USC – USC is 3-9 L12 following the Notre Dame game
Arizona State is 2-8-1 L11 as underdogs – Stanford is 5-1 L6 as fav orites
Boise State is 0-4 L4 vs. Hawaii – Hawaii is 16-10 as home underdogs since ‘99
Florida Atlantic is 4-0 L4 vs. Louisiana – Louisiana is 5-2 L7 home games
Florida International is 6-3 L9 as road underdogs – Arkansas St is 2-5 L7 as home favorites
North Texas is 18-25 L43 on the road – Troy is 13-7 L20 as home favorites
UL-Monroe is 9-4 L13 road games – Kentucky is 40-50-1 as favorites since ‘80
Western Kentucky is 3-2 L5 road games – Middle Tennessee State is 10-5-1 L16 as favorites
NFL: San Diego is 23-13 as road favs since ’92 – KC is 44-21-2 as home dogs since ‘80
Indianapolis is 7-13 L20 as road favorites – St. Louis is 3-11 L14 as home underdogs
Chicago is 2-6 L8 road games – Cincinnati is 1-6 L7 home games
Green Bay is 8-3-1 L12 as road favorites – Cleveland is 10-5 L15 as home underdogs
Minnesota is 5-10 L15 as underdogs – Pittsburgh is 6-2 L8 as home favorites
New England is 1-3 L4 vs. Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay 10-5-1 L16 as double-digit dogs
San Francisco is 5-0 L5 as underdogs – Houston is 6-9 L15 as favorites
NY Jets are 1-6 L7 as road favorites – Oakland is 9-20 L29 as home underdogs
Buffalo is 5-1 L6 road games – Carolina is 8-5-1 L14 home games
New Orleans is 12-3 L15 as road favorites – Miami is 4-10 L14 as home underdogs
Atlanta is 8-11 L19 as underdogs – Dallas is 5-7 L12 home games
Arizona is 4-0 L4 as underdogs – NY Giants are 9-2-1 L12 as favorites
Philadelphia is 8-12-1 L21 as road favorites – Washington is 5-8-1 L14 as home underdogs
TREND OF THE WEEK
Stanford is 9-0 ATS the last nine home games
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 STANFORD (-7) over Arizona State
RATING 4 WEST VIRGINIA (-7) over Connecticut
RATING 3 VIRGINIA (+4) over Georgia Tech
RATING 2 UTAH STATE (+1½) over Louisiana Tech
RATING 2 INDIANA (+4½) over Northwestern
RATING 1 MISSISSIPPI STATE (+22) over Florida
RATING 1 MIAMI, FL (-7) over Clemson
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2009
Tulsa (-7) UTEP 7:00 PM
Last year this match-up was a laugher as Tulsa rolled to a 77-35 win, although the game was
tied 28-28 after the first quarter. Tulsa has not come close to last season’s production, now
only averaging just over 30 points per game and less than 400 yards per game. As a result
the ‘under’ has cashed in every Tulsa game. Defensively Tulsa has been much stronger this
season but they have not played the same caliber of schedule that UTEP has battled through.
These teams are expected to be battling for the top spot in the West division of Conference
USA but UTEP will need to win here to keep pace as Tulsa is 2-0 in conference play. The
home team has dominated this series in recent years and Tulsa could be a bit drained from
the national TV loss to Boise State last week. Tulsa had great preparation for that game and
hung close but it will be an advantageous situation for UTEP coming off a bye week. The
Miners have some ugly stats on defense but are 8-4 the last 12 as home dogs. UTEP BY 4
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2009
NORTH CAROLINA (-2½) Florida State 7:00 PM
UNC has some of the best defensive numbers in the nation, allowing only 237 yards per
game. The Tar Heels have lost their last two FBS games however, currently sitting 0-2 in the
ACC despite being considered a contender. Florida State is actually 0-3 in conference play
and the Seminoles are just 2-4 overall with only one FBS win. That win was a shocking
blowout at BYU but this will be a tough road game as both teams are well rested. North
Carolina has only won S/U against Florida State once in school history, so though this line
may be close to even, UNC is still the underdog in the minds of the players. Florida State has
played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and the offense has been far more
productive for the year. Florida State has been vulnerable to big plays on defense but North
Carolina has not been able to sustain drives let alone create a big plays. Against three major
conference opponents, North Carolina has scored a total of 22 points. FLORIDA STATE BY 6
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2009
Rutgers (-10) ARMY 7:00 PM
Rutgers reeled off a four-game winning streak against weak competition but the Big East
favorites of many are now 0-2 in conference play. After a primetime loss last week at home
Rutgers is back to facing a match-up more in line with its schedule that rates as one of the
weakest in the nation. Army owns three wins this season and the losses have mainly been
competitive efforts. The Black Knights are rushing for 222 yards per game while overall Army
allows just 285 yards per game. Army has also played a weak schedule and the last two years
Rutgers has won by a combined score of 71-9 in this series. QB play has been suspect for the
Scarlet Knights but Rutgers should have success running the ball in this match-up. Army
probably deserved to cover last week as they out-gained Temple and allowed only 195 yards
despite losing 27-13. Army has not been strong in the home underdog role, going 7-18 since
’03 and against major conference competition the Black Knights have not held up well.
Rutgers has underperformed so far this season but this is an opportunity. RUTGERS BY 17
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2009
MARSHALL (-7½) Uab 11:00 AM
These teams are both 2-1 in conference play in what could be a wide open East division. UAB
has been out-gained by 100 yards or more in each of the last four games and the Blazers are
0-3 S/U and ATS in road games this season. UAB is one of the top rushing teams in the
nation but Marshall has been a very solid defensive team through a much more challenging
schedule. Last season UAB won 23-21 at home in this match-up but this will be the fourth
road game in the past five games for the Blazers. While Marshall is a solid team in the
underdog role the Herd is rarely accustomed to playing as solid favorites. UAB is an attractive
team in the underdog role with a strong rushing ability but the road woes may be too much to
overcome for the Blazers against a good defense. MARSHALL BY 10
SYRACUSE (-9½) Akron 2:30 PM
Akron is just 1-5 which has created an inflated spread on this match-up. The Zips have been
competitive however and there should be plenty of chances to score against a Syracuse
defense that is allowing 382 yards per game. Starting the season as the #3 QB, Patrick Nicely
managed the game well last week as Akron had a solid yardage edge in a narrow loss.
Syracuse has had two weeks to prepare for this game but the Orange have been a lousy ATS
home team the last three years. Last season Akron beat Syracuse 42-28, posting 478 yards.
The Zips have had a lot go wrong this season but this was a team projected to do extremely
well in the MAC. Syracuse should be ready to play this week but they have not proven good
enough to lay this size of a number. SYRACUSE BY 6
DUKE (-6) Maryland 12:30 PM
Maryland has won five in a row in this series but these teams hav e not met since ’04. Duke is
not often a favorite but the Blue Devils actually project to a much larger number than this early
line. Duke is just 7-17 ATS in the last 24 home games so there is valid concern with backing
the Devils at any price. Duke is scoring 32 points per game with nearly 400 yards of offense
and at 3-3 this is a promising team. Maryland has played every single week while Duke will be
rested in this match-up but the Terrapins have actually out-gained four of the last five foes.
Both teams have marginal defensive numbers but Maryland has had to play a more
challenging schedule although they have lost badly in both road games. Duke has scored 124
points in the last three games and this is a team with growing confidence that is rested and
should have a great game plan in this match-up. Both teams have had limited success
running the ball this season and Duke has proven the ability to win a shootout. DUKE BY 10
Georgia Tech (-4) VIRGINIA 11:00 AM
The Yellow Jackets are getting some national attention now 6-1 and coming off an impressive
win over Virginia Tech. Georgia Tech’s rushing attack is averaging 281 yards per game but
coming off back-to-back big wins leaves for a vulnerable flat spot. Virginia has had great
success in this series, covering in five of the last six and twelve of the last 18. Virginia is also
15-5 the last 20 games as a home underdog and after a brutal start to the season the
Cavaliers have rattled off three wins, playing great defensive football. Against major
conference competition the last three weeks Virginia has allowed only 19 points and for the
year Virginia is allowing 82 fewer yards per game than Georgia Tech. Virginia QB Jemeel
Sewell left last weeks game but if he is healthy the Cavaliers should expect to be in position
for an upset. Georgia Tech’s rushing attack had just 156 yards in this match-up last season
and the Cavs are playing much better than their reputation represents. VIRGINIA BY 4
MIAMI, FL (-7) Clemson 11:00 AM
The Tigers came up with a huge win last week but the game came in a favorable situation.
Miami has faced an extremely challenging schedule but the Hurricanes are 5-1, both S/U and
ATS. Both road games have meant losses for Clemson and they had two weeks to prepare for
last week’s games which likely helped create the great performance. Clemson’s defense is
allowing only 15 points per game but they have been out-gained in three games this season
and have been aided by weather in two games to keep the scoring low . Clemson has been a
dangerous underdog with a 13-3 ATS record in the last 16 attempts but this Tigers squad has
been inconsistent on offense. Clemson may be a bit overvalued coming off a lopsided win and
this is a team that is not having the same type of success at home. When Miami plays well
they have proven to be an elite caliber team and after an uninspiring effort last week, great
focus is in order for this match-up. MIAMI BY 17
PURDUE (-10½) Illinois 11:00 AM
The Boilermakers enter this game off a huge upset win but it was a long-time coming as
Purdue had been very productive against quality competition only to be burned by turnovers.
Purdue is scoring 28 points per game with over 400 yards of offense. Purdue has played the
tougher schedule and has been better statistically on both sides of the ball. It has been an
awful season for Illinois, now 0-4 in the Big Ten and 0-5 ATS for the season. Purdue has had
excellent success in this series and although there is a risk for a letdown, Illinois continues to
disappoint and is not a team that can be trusted at any price. This will be the second straight
week on the road for Illinois and after falling well short in one of the few winnable games on
the schedule last week it could be another tough game. PURDUE BY 17
Central Michigan (-7) BOWLING GREEN 11:00 AM
After a respectable opening loss to Arizona, Central Michigan has won six in a row and the
Chippewas are in control of the MAC. Bowling Green has had to battle through a very
challenging schedule and after a four-game losing streak the Falcons have rebounded with
back-to-back road wins. Oddly Bowling Green has been a much better performer away from
home in recent years and the Falcons are 4-15 ATS in the last 19 home games. Central could
be a bit flat coming off a big road win over a key division rival but this has been the most
consistent performing team in the MAC over the last few seasons. Bowling Green has been
out-rushed in six straight games and the Falcon defense is allowing 70 more yards per game
on the season. Central Michigan is on a roll both S/U and ATS and it is not worth trying to fade
them right now. Bowling Green is still rebuilding despite some promise. CENTRAL BY 10
NORTHWESTERN (-4½) Indiana 11:00 AM
Both teams enter this match-up at 4-3 and this would be key win for the potential bowl hopes
for both squads. Northwestern has been a little bit of a disappointment this season following a
strong 2008 as the Wildcats have only scored 27 points per game through a rather weak
schedule. Indiana has actually been the superior rushing team on the year and the Hoosiers
beat Northwestern last season as underdogs. Indiana had a disastrous trip to Virginia in its
last road game but much of the team was ill and a sharp performance last week against
Illinois has the team back on track. Northwestern covered last week but the offense has not
taken advantage of opportunities and the defense is not strong enough to shut down
opponents. Indiana has been a lousy road performer in recent years but the Hoosiers have
been more impressive through a tougher schedule so far this season and the Wildcats are 3-
11 the last 14 games at favorites. INDIANA BY 3
OHIO STATE (-18) Minnesota 11:00 AM
Terrelle Pryor and Adam Weber were expected to be two of the top QBs in the Big Ten this
season but neither has had a very good statistical season as both are completing just 55
percent of passes and interceptions have been common. In tough conditions at Penn State
last week the Gophers failed to score and produced 138 yards. It was the sixth consecutive
game that Minnesota was out-gained even though the Gophers are currently 4-3. Just as Ohio
State appeared to be taking command back in the Big Ten, the Buckeyes were victim to a
shocking upset last week. The BCS hopes have been dashed but this should be a favorable
situation against a Minnesota team that has had little success in this series. The Buckeyes
can bounce back as Minnesota has been fortunate in several wins. OHIO STATE BY 24
PITTSBURGH (-6½) South Florida 11:00 AM
The Panthers have moved into the national rankings with a 6-1 record but for the season
South Florida has been a superior statistical team on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh has
played a slightly tougher schedule but South Florida also has just one loss. South Florida
came up short in last week’s national TV game while Pittsburgh was a winner in its weeknight
TV game last week. South Florida will face its first road game in what could be difficult
northern weather but the Bulls have been a solid underdog in recent years. Pittsburgh won by
five at South Florida last season as the teams exchanged touchdowns late in the 4th quarter.
Pitt had significant statistical edges in that game and this year similar match-up edges should
be present. Pittsburgh continues to deliver and wins the past two weeks have been more
significant in terms of yardage than the final margins suggest. PITTSBURGH BY 10
WEST VIRGINIA (-7) Connecticut 11:00 AM
It will be an emotional week for the Huskies as starting CB Jasper Howard was stabbed to
death on campus the evening after last week’s homecoming win. West Virginia is just 1-0 in
conference play and the Mountaineers have flown a bit under the radar this season despite a
5-1 start. West Virginia has won and covered each of the last five years in this series and this
is a team that looks capable of challenging the favorite Cincinnati in the Big East. Through
comparable schedules West Virginia has been better on both sides of the ball statistically and
the Mountaineers have out-gained all six opponents on the year. Connecticut has not lost ATS
this season but the Huskies have also failed to beat a high quality opponent and are just 6-13
in the last 19 games as road underdogs. It is a tragic situation for the Connecticut program but
unfortunately it comes in a critical week on the schedule for a West Virginia team that is
capable of putting up big numbers. WEST VIRGINIA BY 16
SOUTH CAROLINA (-12½) Vanderbilt 6:00 PM
The Gamecocks played Alabama as close as anyone has this season, which still is not very
competitive though South Carolina stole a narrow cover. The Gamecocks have faced a
dramatically more difficult schedule so far this season and also owns a perfect record at
home. Vanderbilt has two wins but one came against a FCS opponent and the other came
against a winless Rice team. Vanderbilt has scored just 29 points in four SEC games and they
now must face one of the better defensive teams in the nation on the road. South Carolina QB
Stephen Garcia is questionable this week with a banged up knee but this is a team led by
defense and Vanderbilt’s solid looking numbers on defense are misleading given the
schedule. South Carolina was out-gained last week for the first time all season and after S/U
losses the last two years this should be a game that gets great focus this season. A potentially
depressed line if QB Garcia is out would still be worth a look. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 21
NEBRASKA (NL) Iowa State 12:30 PM
The scoreboard was ugly for Nebraska as they were smoked as a solid home favorite last
week. Despite losing 31-10, Nebraska out-gained Texas Tech and held the high-powered Red
Raiders offense to only 259 yards. A fumble return for a touchdown was a key play early in the
game but the Nebraska offense was ineffective much of the game and QB Zac Lee was
eventually pulled. Iow a State has covered in four of the last five games and the Cyclones have
been very competitive in their losses as well. Iowa State has actually been a more productive
offensive team for the season although Nebraska has faced a more difficult schedule. Iowa
State has been an excellent ATS team in the role as a large underdog and assuming QB
Austen Arnaud is able to go for the Cyclones this could be a favorable match-up going against
a reeling Cornhusker offense. Nebraska has out-gained every opponent this season but
against quality Big XII offenses the defense can’t carry the team. NEBRASKA BY 7
Ball State (-3½) EASTERN MICHIGAN 12:00 PM
The Cardinals will play as a 0-7 road favorite in this match-up of winless teams. Eastern
Michigan has actually played the tougher schedule and has been a slightly stronger defensive
team so the favoritism may not be justified. That said, Ball State has been a quality ATS road
team in recent years while Eastern is 3-13 ATS in the last 16 home games. Since QB Schmitt
went down to injury the Eagle offense has taken a big hit but Ball State may also be dealing
with the loss of a QB this week. Back-up QB Tanner Justice completed just 6 of 21 passes in
relief last week so the offense could struggle. Eastern Michigan is a tough team to back as
they have put together very few positive efforts in recent years but Ball State may be in a bad
situation even though the Cardinals hav e been the more competitive team . EASTERN BY 3
Northern Illinois (-11½) MIAMI, OH 12:00 PM
Miami is scoring just ten points a game, now sitting at 0-7 on the year. The defense
meanwhile has allowed over 35 points per game and they will face Northern Illinois coming off
a very tough loss. The Huskies are just 1-9 ATS in the past ten road contests so this could be
an opportunity for the Redhawks. NIU has won the last four meetings between these teams
but Miami has covered in close games the past two years. By a wide margin Miami has had to
play the toughest schedule of any MAC team and this will be the first home game for the
Redhawks that is not against a BCS conference school. Northern Illinois has rebounded nicely
from past losses however and though the trends for NIU are not strong, the scoring numbers
present a huge edge. Much of Miami’s production has come late in games after a big deficit
has been established and the Huskies should be in position to continue the misery for a once
proud Miami program that is currently in rough shape. NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY 17
Oklahoma State (-10) BAYLOR 11:30 AM
While Oklahoma State has now won four in a row and continues to climb in the national
rankings this has not been a terribly impressive team. The Cowboys have played one of the
easiest schedules of any major conference team and the acclaimed offense is only outgaining
foes by about 50 yards per game. Key players have been absent but this is also a
team that has only had to play one road game so far. Injuries have derailed a once promising
season for Baylor and the Bears have scored just 17 points the last two weeks. Oklahoma
State has covered in eight of the last ten meetings and the Bears have not been a successful
home underdog. The Cowboys are due to get caught at some point this season but this
match-up should be favorable. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 14
OHIO (-9½) Kent State 1:00 PM
The Bobcats can become bowl eligible with one more win as Ohio has quietly won five of the
last six games. Ohio is allowing more yards than they gain and the team has been out-gained
three of the last four weeks despite covers in all four games. At 3-0 in conference play the
Bobcats are in control of the East division currently but there is little margin for error. Kent is
quietly on a four-game ATS winning streak but through a softer schedule the Flashes are
allowing significantly more yards per game. Both of Kent’s FBS wins came against teams that
are currently winless so there are some suspect numbers on the resume. This is the steepest
line in this series since ’02 but Ohio has taken care of business in conference play and the
Bobcats are 12-6 ATS in the past 18 home games. OHIO BY 14
WESTERN MICHIGAN (-4½) Buffalo 1:00 PM
The Broncos are normally a MAC contender but two early season conference losses leave
Western Michigan in a tough spot in the standings. Normally led by defense, Western
Michigan is allowing over 400 yards per game and the offense has not been consistent. Last
year’s MAC champion has had a much tougher go this season but Buffalo has wins the last
two weeks and on average the Bulls have out-gained foes by over 50 yards per game. Buffalo
lost in overtime against Western Michigan last season as the Broncos completed a significant
comeback so there should some motivation in this match-up for the Bulls. Western also enters
this game off a state rivalry loss last week in a critical conference home game. Western
Michigan has not lived up to expectations so far this season and they have also been a poor
ATS home team in recent years. BUFFALO BY 3
Louisiana Tech (-1½) UTAH STATE 2:00 PM
Utah State may be 1-5 but this will be a dangerous team in WAC play. The Aggies have had
to play four of six games on the road and back at home they nearly beat a Nevada team
projected by many to be one of the better teams in the conference. A loss to New Mexico
State looks bad but Utah State had a nearly 200 yard advantage in that game. Louisiana Tech
won by just seven at home in this series last season and the Bulldogs are 1-10 ATS in the last
eleven road games while Utah State has covered in six in a row as home underdogs. Utah
State has had to endure a muc h tougher schedule in the first half of the season and Louisiana
Tech has been out-gained by over 200 yards in all three road games this season. Utah State
QB Diondre Borel has nine touchdown passes and only one interception on the season
despite facing several quality defenses so this is an Aggies team that should have a good
chance to win playing in a favorable home venue. UTAH STATE BY 6
NOTRE DAME (-9) Boston College 2:30 PM
There will be talk of a letdown possibility for Notre Dame but the Irish were not really expected
to compete by most last week and they should be encouraged by the late rally. Notre Dame
has had limited recent success in this series or as a home favorite but Boston College has
endured disastrous results on the road this season. Boston College has actually won six in a
row S/U against the Irish but the Eagles may be in more of a letdown spot following a big win
over NC State and the former BC coach. Notre Dame has been by far the superior offensive
team and although the defensive numbers are not strong, the schedule has been very difficult.
The Irish will have a big edge at QB in this match-up as the Eagles have had atrocious play
under center and the running game is not likely to explode for as great of success this week
as RB Montel Harris had five touchdowns last week. NOTRE DAME BY 14
ALABAMA (-16) Tennessee 2:30 PM
Tennessee has had two weeks to prepare for this game and Alabama could be a bit
overvalued after eclipsing Florida in the polls last week. The Tide have been exceptionally
impressive this season but this is still a team that is 10-21 ATS as a home favorite since ’04
and the line will be inflated this week. These teams have played similar caliber schedules and
the Volunteers played well in their biggest game against Florida this season so a strong effort
should be in order here. In its last game, against Georgia, Tennessee also had its best
offensive effort since the opening week. Although Alabama’s defense has been better
Tennessee does feature a stingy unit as well and the offensive production between these two
teams has actually been quite similar. Against quality defenses the last two weeks Alabama
has been forced to settle for a lot of field goals, scoring just 42 points in two games.
Tennessee could keep Alabama’s scoring numbers down which makes this inflated spread
even more attractive for the underdog Volunteers. ALABAMA BY 10
Oregon (-7½) WASHINGTON 2:30 PM
Two weeks ago Washington stole a win from Arizona late in the game but last week a tie
game was finished the wrong way in the closing seconds against the Huskies. Washington
has endured a season of dramatic games through one of the toughest schedules in the nation.
Oregon has reeled off four-straight impressive wins to move to 5-1 and the Ducks will be a
serious national player if they can keep winning. Oregon has won and covered each of the last
four meetings in this series and the Ducks are allowing 144 fewer yards per game on the year.
Washington has excelled in the home underdog role but slowing down an Oregon offense that
has been on a roll will be a very difficult challenge. With two weeks to get ready for this matchup
Oregon should deliver another impressive showing. Washington has been a fun team to
watch but the defense could really have a lot of problems in this match-up as Oregon has
been posting huge numbers on the ground. OREGON BY 13
TEXAS TECH (-21) Texas A&M 6:00 PM
After two early season losses Texas Tech has cruised to wins each of the last three weeks.
The offense has not been quite as productive as expected but the defense has surprisingly
strong. After a promising 3-0 start Texas A&M has dropped three straight and last week’s loss
came in blowout fashion. Tech has completely dominated this series in recent years and the
Red Raiders have not been a team to go-against at home with outstanding spread numbers.
Texas Tech has played a higher quality schedule and the only road game that A&M has
played was last week’s disastrous loss. There won’t be any value with the Red Raiders but the
A&M sec ondary is banged up and Texas Tech continues to prove it is a program that intends
to stay towards the top even with significant roster turnover. TEXAS TECH BY 28
Penn State (-4½) MICHIGAN 2:30 PM
The Nittany Lions dominated in the snow last week and on the year Penn State has outgained
every opponent. They face Michigan squad that has been just as productive on
offense, posting 37 points and 426 yards per game. The Penn State defense is allowing just
over eight points per game but the team has faced a rather weak schedule. Michigan has
actually been out-gained in four of seven games as the defense is allowing 363 yards per
game. Historically Michigan has had a lot of success in this series and the Wolverines have
been very adept home underdogs. Last seas on Penn State won 46-17 in this series but a
much closer affair should be expected this season. Turnovers have been a problem for
Michigan but at home the Wolverines should play a close game. Both Michigan losses came
in very competitive games and the Wolv erines can score quickly to keep pace and have also
shown the ability to come back if falling behind early. PENN STATE BY 3
Oklahoma (-6½) KANSAS 12:00 PM
Kansas fell behind early and rallied to take the lead last week at Colorado but ultimately fell
short for the first loss of the season. Amazingly Oklahoma has already lost three times this
season but BYU, Miami, and Texas figure to be highly ranked teams all season. Injuries have
taken a toll for the Sooners but the defense is capable of carrying the team. Even through a
very tough schedule Oklahoma is allowing less than ten points per game and nearly 85 fewer
yards per game than Kansas gives up. Kansas is unlikely to be able to run the ball against the
Sooners and when Colorado stopped the run last week the Jayhawks struggled. Kansas has
had a productive offensive team but the schedule has been incredibly weak. Oklahoma
bounced back for a dominant win after each of the last two losses even with back-up QB
Landry Jones. The Sooners have lost three games but by a combined total of five points so
this is a still a team to be reckoned with in the Big XII but Kansas could be capable of a
bounce back effort on a tough home field. . OKLAHOMA BY 4
Texas (-13½) MISSOURI 12:00 PM
Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert was not a 100 percent last week and it showed with several
turnovers as Missouri lost despite a yardage advantage. Texas held on for a big win last week
against Oklahoma but it was hardly an impressive showing and the Longhorns could be
vulnerable in upcoming conference games. Texas has only covered once this season and this
will continue to be an overvalued team as long as they stay undefeated. Texas has been a
very difficult team to run against but Missouri has had success in games where they have
been forced exclusively through the air as there is great size and talent in the receiving corps.
Texas won big in last year’s meeting but so far this year Gabbert has actually out-played Colt
McCoy in several statistical categories. This could be a letdown game for the Longhorns and
Missouri needs to bounce back after tough losses in two games they could have won. Texas
is undefeated and highly ranked but this has not looked like a national title contender yet this
season and playing in Columbia as a solid road favorite is a tough order. TEXAS BY 10
NAVY (-2½) Wake Forest 2:30 PM
These teams played twice last season with Navy winning in the regular season and Wake
Forest winning the bowl game match-up. Wake Forest enters this game off an ugly road
performance and the Deacons have lost both road games this season. Navy is now a winner
of four consecutive games but the competition has been quite weak and two wins required
overtime. Navy should enjoy a significant rushing edge in this match-up and through
somewhat comparable quality schedules the Navy defense has been quite a bit stronger.
Wake Forest has scored just 13 points per game on the road and this should be a much
bigger game for Navy. In nearly every measure Navy looks like the superior team and this is a
short price on what should be the better team. Wake Forest is certainly better than they
looked last week but this is not any easier of a situation. NAVY BY 7
COLORADO STATE (-9½) San Diego State 3:00 PM
After a very promising start to the season Colorado State has now dropped four consecutive
games and the Rams have lost ATS in four straight meetings in this series. Despite the losing
streak Colorado State has covered in each of the last eight lined home games and the Rams
have been the much better rushing team. Colorado State has also faced a significantly more
challenging schedule. Although San Diego State is in a rebuilding mode the Aztecs have
posted a few very respectable efforts in recent weeks. The last two games have come at
home however and this is not a program that has had a lot of recent road success. Although
Colorado State has allowed more yards, these teams are giving up a similar amount of points
per game. Colorado State has a solid home field edge and the Rams have played against
better competition. COLORADO STATE BY 14
UTAH (-10) Air Force 3:00 PM
The Utes are not getting a lot of attention this season but this is a team with only one loss in
the past two seasons. The loss came on the road in a close game with Oregon and since Utah
has rebounded with three consecutive wins including the last two on the road. Utah is 10-5
ATS in the past 15 home games but Air Force has covered in nine of the last twelve meetings.
The Air Force defense is allowing just eleven points per game but the caliber of schedule has
not been remotely close. This series has been very tight the last four years and although Utah
should have a few advantages Air Force is likely to hang around and get on the scoreboard.
Amazingly the underdog is 10-0-1 the last eleven meetings in this series as the statistics can
often be thrown out between these teams. UTAH BY 7
NEVADA (-13) Idaho 3:05 PM
One of the best stories of the season has been Idaho as the Vandals are 6-1 and bowl
eligible. Idaho is 7-0 ATS on the season yet will play as nearly two touchdown underdogs this
week. After a slow start Nevada has put together three straight wins and the Wolf Pack remain
a dominant team at home with a 17-6-1 record in the last 24 games in Reno. Idaho has
covered in nine of the last ten as underdogs however. Nevada is the top rushing team in the
nation and the relentless attack may wipe out the great start to the season for Nevada. After
starting 0-3 Nevada was counted out by most but this is a team that is battle tested and could
play a vital role in the WAC standings. NEVADA BY 11
ARIZONA (-9) Ucla 5:30 PM
Historically UCLA has been on an excellent run as an underdog but the Bruins are the losers
of three straight games S/U and ATS, all as slight underdogs. Through a tougher schedule
Arizona has posted nine points and 133 more yards per game on offense while only being
marginally worse defensively. The Wildcats have two losses but one came against
Washington in a game they controlled the whole way and the other was a respectable road
loss at Iowa that is looking fine at this point in the season. Arizona has controlled this series
with large yardage margins the past two years and Arizona is 8-2 ATS at home in the past ten
home games. The season has spiraled out of control for UCLA and getting things back
together against a very solid team will be difficult. In every Pac -10 game Arizona has scored
at least as many points as the most UCLA has scored all season in a game. Look for Arizona
to step forward from the middle of the pack with this win. ARIZONA BY 14
CALIFORNIA (-36) Washington State 3:30 PM
After two terrible performances Cal got back in the win column in a big way, crushing UCLA.
Washington State has had two weeks to prepare for this game but the Cougars have been
out-gained by at leas t 130 yards in every game. California has covered in eight straight home
games but Washington State has had some success in this series with covers in six of the last
eight meetings. Last season Cal won 66-3 on the road but in 2007 the Bears barely escaped
at home 20-17. Statistically there is no comparison between these teams but Washington
State has had to face one of the more difficult slates in the nation. Cal has been a streaky
team but this line has been adjusted way too high as the Bear defense is allowing over 23
points per game and will allow a few scores in this game. CALIFORNIA BY 28
Temple (-1) TOLEDO 6:00 PM
The Rockets held on for a win last week but Toledo could be down to QB #3 this week as
injuries continue to be a problem. Historically Toledo has been a very difficult team to beat at
home and the Rockets have been an incredibly productive team on offense, averaging 458
yards per game. Temple has been a bit better on defense but the Owls have played a weaker
schedule so far this season. Temple is quietly 3-0 in conference play and the Owls have been
solid ATS road performers. Temple now has won four straight games but that includes two
wins over winless teams and even with a back-up QB Toledo can rely on its running game to
move the ball. Temple faces an upgrade in competition this week and It could prove costly in
the first conference loss for the Owls. Temple is 10-5 in the last 15 road games but this is a
tough venue for an opponent to win at. TOLEDO BY 7
MISSISSIPPI (-5½) Arkansas 11:30 AM
The Razorbacks appeared on the verge of a huge upset last week but fell just short. It will be
difficult for the same focus to come this week following such a stretch of big games. Arkansas
has proven worthy against solid competition this season but the defense is allowing nearly
400 yards per game. Mississippi has allowed just 13 points per game but the Rebels have
faced a dramatically easier schedule than Arkansas. Last season Mississippi won at Arkansas
23-21 in a game that was very even statistically. Arkansas has covered in eleven of the last 15
meetings in this series but this may be a better situation for Ole Miss. The Rebels lack an
impressive win and have done little to justify a high preseason ranking but a letdown could be
in effect for the Razorbacks. Arkansas will likely be overvalued coming off the impressive
effort against Florida but this team could be out of gas. MISSISSIPPI BY 10
CINCINNATI (-17) Louisville 2:30 PM
The Bearcats moved to 6-0 with a big primetime win last week but appeared to lose QB Tony
Pike in the process. Some reports say that Pike actually could be back this week despite dire
early scenarios. For the season Cincinnati is scoring over 40 points per game and while
allowing just 14 per game and the Bearcats are gaining some degree of respect for the Big
East. Cincinnati is just 1-5 in the last six games as home favorites however but Louisville is a
team that seems to be doing just enough to lose. The Cardinals are 2-4 on the season and a
coaching change appears eminent. This series has been very tight the past three years but
the favorite has covered in nine of the past twelve meetings. Even if Pike is unable to play,
back-up Zach Collaros proved capable last week, making plays in the air and on the ground.
This will be the second straight week on the road for Louisville and Cincinnati looks like an
elite team showing no signs of letting up. CINCINNATI BY 24
SOUTHERN MISS (-20½) Tulane 6:00 PM
The Golden Eagles were out-gained last week but still found a way to win and cover. Back-up
QB Martevious Young showed his inexperience but for the most part avoided costly mistakes
in the win over Memphis. It has been a weak schedule but with four wins the Golden Eagles
appear to be in good position for another bowl trip. Tulane is scoring about half as many
points as Southern Miss while allowing almost 36 points per game. A one-point win over Army
is the lone FBS win for the Green Wave and the defense is allowing 192 yards per game on
the ground. Southern Miss is just 3-11 in the last 14 games as double-digit favorites and with
marginal QB play it will be tough to cover this big number. Tulane has not provided a lot of
reasons for optimism but QB Joe Kemp has been fairly efficient and Southern Miss has
actually been out-gained in four of the last five games. SOUTHERN MISS BY 13
Central Florida (-10½) RICE 2:30 PM
Rice is now 0-7 on the season including three home losses. The Owls are scoring just 16
points per game while allowing 45 points and 470 yards per game. Central Florida has not
been much better on offense but the Golden Knights are a strong defensive team. Central
Florida played respectably close with an elite Miami team last week and UCF is 4-1 ATS on
the season. The Knights lost both road games in close games however so expecting this team
to win in a blowout may be asking too much. UCF is just 1-8-1 the last ten games as road
favorites while Rice is on a 17-11 run as a home underdog. Central Florida has been an
excellent defensive team against the run but Rice is not a team that tries to run the ball often
and the passing game can be productive if turnovers are avoided. After playing Miami very
tough this could be a tough spot on the schedule and long travel is required for this game. It is
certainly risky to back Rice but this looks like too many points. UCF BY 6
KANSAS STATE (-3) Colorado 12:00 PM
Both of these struggling Big XII teams came up big wins last week to rectify postseason
hopes. Kansas State dominated Texas A&M for a 62-14 blowout, taking advantage of
interceptions and big plays on special teams. Colorado required a tense finish to hang on but
built a big lead to end an undefeated run for Kansas. Every team in the Big XII North has a
loss and Kansas State technically leads the division currently at 2-1. Colorado has played a
much tougher schedule on the year and the statistics have shown it as the Buffaloes are
allowing over 80 more yards than they gain each game. Last season Colorado won 14-13 at
home in a fairly even statistical game but Kansas State has covered in each of the last four
meetings. Colorado is just 6-14 in the last 20 road games but this is a team that has covered
in four straight games and has been playing significantly better since early in the year. K-State
has played a weak home schedule and this could be a problematic match-up as Colorado has
been very tough against the run in recent games. COLORADO BY 6
Iowa (-2) MICHIGAN STATE 6:05 PM
Iowa has not been overly impressive but the Hawkeyes play fundamental football and don’t
make many mistakes. As a result this is an undefeated team that is climbing the rankings and
the last hope for the Big Ten to make a national splash. Iowa has one of the best turnover
margins in the nation and also one of the best defenses against the pass. Opponents can rush
on Iowa and the Hawkeyes have not featured a great rushing attack of their own however
which could cause problems at some point. Michigan State did not play a great game last
week but rallied late for a win over Northwestern, making for three cons ecutive wins. The
Spartans have out-gained its opponent in all but one game this year. The home team has won
S/U in each of the last nine meetings in this series and Michigan State QB Kirk Cousins has
been the more efficient passer in this match-up. Through a fairly similar schedule Michigan
State has been the more productive team and if the Spartans avoid costly mistakes an upset
is very possible although Iowa is tough to go-against right now . IOWA BY 1
BYU (PK) Tcu 6:30 PM
Most assume this game will decide the Mountain West champion and a potential BCS buster
although Utah may have something to say about that still. TCU grades as the far better team
at this point in the season and the Horned Frogs have not lost while BYU has. Last season
TCU won 32-7 with a huge rushing advantage and though he has not been as prolific, TCU
QB Andy Dalton has been much more efficient than the more acclaimed BYU starter Max Hall.
Through a tougher schedule TCU is allowing 100 fewer yards per game and nine fewer points
per game while TCU has also featured the stronger rushing attack on offense. Surprisingly
BYU has failed to cover in each of the last six home games and the win over Oklahoma and
the loss to Florida State both look much worse at this point in the year. TCU’s wins at Virginia
and at Clemson look much better right now and the Frogs have proven the ability to control a
game away from home. This is certainly a huge game for both teams and TCU simply has
been more impressive at this point in the year. TCU BY 6
Florida (-22) MISSISSIPPI STATE 6:30 PM
The Gators have covered in eleven straight road games but this is a series the team has
struggled with covering just once in the last six meetings. Florida narrowly escaped at home
against Arkans as last week and the Gators have really accomplished little this season as they
have been held to 23 or fewer points in three of four SEC games. Mississippi State has
struggled with turnovers but statistically has been an impressive team. The Bulldogs have outgained
five of seven foes this season despite a 3-4 record and all but one loss has been a
very competitive effort against a quality opponent. Believe it or not but Mississippi State has
won S/U each of the last three meetings in this series in Starkville though the last win was in
’04. Georgia is on deck for the Gators and Mississippi State is rushing for 219 yards per game
through a schedule that has been just as tough as Florida’s. FLORIDA BY 10
HOUSTON (-17½) Smu 6:30 PM
The spread is greatly inflated as the Cougars are getting a strong backing with their 4-1 ATS
record and the ability to score a lot of points. SMU sits ahead of Houston in the C-USA
standings however and despite being out-gained in all but one game this season the
Mustangs have covered in four of the last five contests. SMU has also covered in four of the
last five meetings with Houston and this series has been decided by ten points or less five
straight years. Both teams are terrible defensively but Houston is actually allowing 55 more
yards per game. The Cougars are also on a 10-22-1 ATS run as a double-digit favorite. Much
has been made of Houston’s quality schedule with three major conference wins but SMU’s
schedule grades far tougher overall despite fewer big-name programs. This has been a tight
series and few realize how quickly SMU has improved. HOUSTON BY 10
Fresno State (-25) NEW MEXICO STATE 9:20 PM
Fresno State delivered a strong win last week led by a relentless rushing attack but the
Bulldogs do call off the dogs late which has made them vulnerable to a backdoor cover as
some ended up pushing last week as San Jose State had the final score. New Mexico State
has been out-gained in every game this season yet has managed to win three games. The
Aggies have averaged just 14 points and 250 yards per game as Fresno has nearly doubled
those figures. On defense these teams have similar overall numbers but NMS is allowing 198
yards per game on the ground and the highly rated Fresno rushing attack should enjoy a big
day on the way to another convincing win. FRESNO BY 31
LSU (-8) Auburn 6:30 PM
Back-to-back losses as favorites have calmed a promising start for Auburn but the offensive
edges in this match-up should be significant. LSU has only allowed 14 points per game but
they have allowed a lot of yards and this is a team that is likely still overrated. Auburn has
covered in three of the last four in this series and LSU is just 2-12-1 ATS in the last 15 home
games. LSU has played a little bit tougher schedule and will enter off a bye week but this has
not been a team that looks trustworthy as a favorite. Auburn’s running game should keep
them alive in this match-up and this is a team capable of bouncing back after two tough losses
in SEC play the last two weeks. LSU BY 4
Unlv (-3½) NEW MEXICO 7:00 PM
The Runnin’ Rebels were projected by most to be a serious bowl contender but this is a team
that has now lost four in a row and has only covered in one game all year. New Mexico is 0-6
with only one spread win as well but the Lobos might be in a good position this week at home
and coming off a bye week. New Mexico has covered in seven of the last ten in this series and
UNLV can hardly be relied on laying points on the road even if the Lobos have turned in
several ugly performances this season. UNLV is 6-20-2 ATS in the last 28 road games and as
bad as New Mexico has been on defense, UNLV has allowed similar yardage totals. It is
tough to come up with reasons to justify backing New Mexico but the Lobos should take
advantage of a bye week to get a great game plan in order. NEW MEXICO BY 3
USC (-20½) Oregon State 7:00 PM
The Beavers are a team that has continually given USC problems and catching the Trojans off
long travel in a hyped game at Notre Dame could be a favorable situation. The losses for
Oregon State this season both came in competitivegames against Arizona and Cincinnati and
once again this looks like an overlooked team that will finish with a solid record. The scoring
numbers on offense are nearly identical for these teams and USC is just 1-4 ATS in the past
five games as this is not a team that is blowing out opponents with huge outbursts. Oregon
State is 2-0 S/U on the road this season while USC is 3-9 ATS the last twelve years following
the Notre Dame game. Oregon State QB Sean Canfield has far better numbers than USC’s
Matt Barkley and overall Oregon State is on an 11-4 ATS run. USC BY 13
STANFORD (-7) Arizona State 9:15 PM
Both teams have four wins already this season and this will be a critical swing game in the
middle of the Pac-10. Arizona State is coming off a narrow win in the closing seconds while
Stanford is coming off back-to-back losses following a promising start to the year. Arizona
State is just 2-8-1 the last eleven games as underdogs and Stanford has covered in nine
straight home games. ASU has also played far and away the weakest schedule of any Pac -10
team and Stanford has been the much more productive offensive team. The Cardinal rush for
over 200 yards per game and the worse defensive numbers can be partly attributed to the
much tougher schedule. Arizona State QB Danny Sullivan is completing just 54 percent of his
passes with just as many picks as touchdowns and Stanford should be able to pull away in
this match-up, hungry for a win after two tough losses. STANFORD BY 17
Boise State (-24) HAWAII 11:00 PM
Hawaii has covered in the las t four meetings with Boise and the Warriors still had decent
production last week despite playing with a #3 QB. Hawaii has allowed over 400 yards per
game however, equally bad against the rush and the pass. Boise State has been a bit
lackluster in the last two games so a convincing road win might be nice to keep the Broncos in
the national conversation. QB Kellen Moore has a 16:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and
Boise State has covered in seven of the last nine road games. Going against Boise is not a
good long-term investment strategy and even on the road the Broncos should keep the foot on
the gas for a convincing win as therewill be plenty of opportunities. BOISE BY 28
LOUISIANA (-3) Florida Atlantic 4:00 PM
Florida Atlantic is 1-4 and Louisiana is 4-2 but these teams rate very closely and the Owls
have played a far tougher schedule. FAU has covered each of the last four years in this
series . Louisiana is 2-0 in Sun Belt play but they have faced two of the weaker teams in the
league and neither win was thoroughly impressive. Louisiana has actually been out-gained in
four of the last five games despite taking three wins in that span. The Cajuns suffered several
injuries in last week ’s game and FAU could be a solid play as a dog. FAU BY 3
ARKANSAS STATE (-10½) Florida International 6:00 PM
These teams each have just one win despite elevated expectations for the year. Last year
Florida International won 22-21 with a late score and Arkansas State is 2-10 ATS in the past
twelve lined games. Through similar schedules Arkansas State has posted far better
defensive numbers but International has been a game underdog and a lot of the yardage
deficit came against major conference foes including an underdog cover against Alabama.
FIU has scored 30 plus four straight weeks and this will be a tough team to cover up by
double-digits in what will be a critical game for both teams. ARKANSAS STATE BY 4
TROY (NL) North Texas 2:30 PM
North Texas lost a very even game last week to fall to 1-5 and the Mean Green may be again
without their QB. Troy is the team to beat in the Sun Belt and the Trojans have won and
covered in four straight games with sizable yardage edges. Statistically these teams are
actually quite close despite the great contrast in the records but Troy did have to play Florida
and the Trojans have played a tougher overall schedule. Troy has won and covered easily the
past two years in this series but North Texas may give a fight here with a line that likely will be
inflated based on the S/U records. TROY BY 13
KENTUCKY (-15½) UL-Monroe 6:00 PM
Monroe is 5-1 ATS on the season and 4-2 S/U as they currently lead the Sun Belt at 3-0.
Monroe would be wise to expend its energy getting ready for Troy next week rather than trying
to hang with Kentucky. The Wildcats are just 3-3 but they have had to face three of the top
SEC teams already this season. Outside of lopsided losses to the top two ranked teams in the
nation the Wildcats have acquitted themselves well and could make a surprising bowl run.
Kentucky won with a back-up QB at Auburn last week and the Wildcats have become a very
good rushing team. KENTUCKY BY 24
MID TENN STATE (-17) Western Kentucky 2:30 PM
Western Kentucky is on a 14-game losing streak but Middle Tennessee has also been a loser
the past two weeks despite a very promising start to the season. The Blue Raiders have been
solid in the favorite role even though they have not come close the last two games as small
underdogs. Western Kentucky has been out-gained in every game this season and the
numbers do not look promising for the Hilltoppers in this match-up. Western Kentucky is 3-2
ATS in the last five road games but the losing streak likely continues in a big way as MTSU
has proven to be a very solid team if properly motivated. MTSU BY 21
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 SAN FRANCISCO (+3) over Houston
RATING 4 DALLAS (-3½) over Atlanta
RATING 3 NY JETS (-6) over Oakland
RATING 2 CHICAGO (+2½) over Cincinnati
RATING 1 INDIANAPOLIS (-13) over St. Louis
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, and lines are obviously subject to change
BYE WEEK: BALTIMORE, DENVER, DETROIT, JACKSONVILLE, SEATTLE, TENNESSEE
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2009
San Diego (NL) KANSAS CITY 12:00 PM
The Chargers faced a make-or-break game Monday night last week and that result could
greatly impact how the team plays the rest of the way. The Chargers have been the worst
rushing team in the NFL by a wide margin but the offense has produced big numbers in the
passing game to dwarf what Kansas City has done. The biggest problems for both teams
have come on defense. Through six games Kansas City has allowed 24 points per game and
coming off finally getting a win could be a letdown situation for the Chiefs. San Diego has
been a solid road favorite in recent history and though the Chiefs were once always a play -onteam
as a home underdog, that rule has changed as the recent results have been marginal.
The Chargers could be a team that continues to fade if they lose to Denver and are buried in
the AFC West so be careful here as the Chiefs have some life. CHARGERS BY 7
Indianapolis (-13) ST. LOUIS (46) 12:00 PM
The winless versus the undefeated should greatly favor a rested Colts squad playing in a
friendly dome environment. The Colts have risen to the top of the NFL thanks to QB Manning
and although St. Louis has put together stronger efforts of late the Rams will not be able to
keep pace in this match-up. This is a steep line on the road but St. Louis is 3-11 the last 14
games as home underdogs and last week ’s OT loss was especially painful. The Colts would
be an average team without Manning but the Colts have been pouring on the points even late
with big leads and this is a team to continue to play on as Indianapolis has already won three
road games this season. While the Colts offense has been one of the best in the NFL as
expected, the defense has been very solid as well. COLTS BY 17
CINCINNATI (-2½) Chicago (42½) 3:15 PM
The Bears severely out-gained Atlanta last week but came up empty in three red zone trips
with a fumble, interception, and a loss on downs to end the game. Chicago has viable
receivers and a good defense but an area that has let the team down is special teams as a big
return allowed was a key play to set-up Atlanta’s winning drive. Cincinnati came back to earth
after a couple of big wins and the Bengals are just 1-6 ATS in the last seven home games.
Cincinnati’s defense is getting a bit of publicity but the team has allowed 45 more yards per
game than Chicago. The Bears have also not been the running team that many expected and
it has hurt them in goal line and 3rd and short situations as the Bears failed in several
opportunities last week. Cincinnati was exposed last week and the Bears will be in need of a
win following a very tough loss. Chicago has been tough against the run and the Bengals
have struggled when too reliant on the passing game. BEARS BY 3
Green Bay (-7) CLEVELAND (42½) 12:00 PM
The Browns have covered in three straight games and now will be a home underdog against a
suspect Packers team. Green Bay had a 26-0 win last week but the Packers have faced one
of the easier schedules in the league while Cleveland has faced the #1 schedule and the
Browns may be better than most realize. Cleveland continues to post ugly offensive numbers
but the defense has been solid and Green Bay has some serious protection issues having
allowed 25 sacks in five games. Statistically there is little support for Cleveland here but the
Browns are 10-5 in the last 15 games as home underdogs and the Packers will be facing a
tricky spot with the big Minnesota game on deck. PACKERS BY 3
PITTSBURGH (-4) Minnesota (45) 12:00 PM
The Steelers make some sense as a team to back at first glance as Minnesota has had a few
narrow wins in the 6-0 start and in terms of yardage the Vikings have not been that
impressive. Consider that the last three weeks Minnesota has had sizable leads late in the
games and the opponents have put up big numbers in the 4th quarter trying to catch up.
Baltimore did catch up last week in a near disaster but Minnesota was able to withstand that
to keep the win streak alive. Pittsburgh posted big passing yards last week against Cleveland
last week but the Steelers have not beaten a winning team this season. Undefeated
underdogs in game 7 or later are 5-1 ATS since 1980 and Minnesota seems to have
everything going its way even if there appears to be vulnerability. STEELERS BY 3
New England (-14) Tampa Bay (45) London, England 12:00 PM
The Bucs are 0-6 but there has been some promise shown with competitive efforts the past
two weeks. Tampa Bay has been a strong ATS performer as a double-digit underdog and the
Patriots will be overvalued coming of the snow blowout last week against winless Tennessee.
New England has endured a difficult schedule and this could be a taxing situation in a brand
new environment while facing steep expectations. New England benefited from five turnovers
last week which could leave them in a negative situation this week. The Patriots have not
been as strong away from home and the elements may not be as helpful this week. Tampa
Bay is getting much more solid QB play and the Bucs should actually be the superior rushing
team in this match-up. Defensively New England has been a far better team but this could be
a solid spot for an underdog on an inflated spread. PATRIOTS BY 10
HOUSTON (-3) San Francisco (44) 12:00 PM
The Texans scored a big win last week to move to 3-3 but this is not a team that is likely to
make the next step. The 49ers have had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off an
ugly loss and a sharp performance will be delivered. Houston’s defense has shown some
improvement in recent weeks but is still allowing over 350 yards per game. The Texans have
also featured a very marginal running game on the year and this could be a bad situation
playing as a home favorite against an intense defensive team. The 49ers are 5-0 in the last
five games as underdogs while Houston has not performed well when expected to win. Look
for a great effort from San Francisco as the Texans continue to take one step forward but then
another step back. San Francisco is a team that will be well prepared with the extra time off
and a big day on both sides could be expected. 49ERS BY 6
NY Jets (-6) OAKLAND (35) 3:05 PM
The Raiders are considered the worst team in the league by most but Oakland now has two
wins and last week ’s win was a true shocker taking out one of the NFC favorites. The Jets are
just 1-6 in the last seven games as road favorites and New York will face long travel this
week. QB Sanchez appeared to be in shock and with his normal confident charisma
evacuated after last week’s dreadful performance and the Jets have fallen back to earth after
a 3-0 start. The Raiders were able to run the ball well last week but Philadelphia quickly
shifted into pass only mode which played into the advantage for Oakland. The Jets are likely
to stick to the ground following a 318-yard rushing game and the Sanchez mistakes. New
York should still be the superior team in this match-up and Oakland has not been able to put
together back-to-back solid efforts. JETS BY 10
CAROLINA (NL) Buffalo 3:05 PM
Both struggling teams pulled out wins last week and the Bills did so with back-up QB Ryan
Fitzpatrick. Buffalo took advantage of six turnovers but still needed most of the overtime
period to get the win while the Panthers needed a late score to break a tie against winless
Tampa Bay. Carolina’s struggles have been played through one of the easiest schedules in
the league but the Panthers did show some promise by finally getting a big day from the
talented group of running backs. A big part of that is not falling behind early and the Bills have
not been a quick strikesquad. Carolina has been the vastly superior defensive team and the
holes in the Buffalo defense appear to be a great match-up advantage for Carolina’s running
game. The Panthers have been a decent home team and with back-to-back wins this is a
team that has a little momentum going and can catch the Bills in a tough situation facing a
second straight road game following a long OT game. PANTHERS BY 13
New Orleans (-6) MIAMI (46½) 3:15 PM
The Saints delivered in a big way in last week ’s undefeated showdown but there could be a
letdown facing a much different climate in Miami. The Saints have delivered a strong record
as a road favorite but Miami is a team on the rise coming off back-to-back wins and well
prepared off the bye week. Miami has faced one of the toughest schedules in the NFL as only
one opponent currently has a losing record. The Saints have great statistics on both sides of
the ball but the schedule has been fairly weak and they are built on a dome environment. New
Orleans has been much less productive away from home and the Saints have caught a lot of
breaks with turnovers this season. A close call might be coming for New Orleans as this
should be a favorable underdog situation for Miami. SAINTS BY 3
DALLAS (-3½) Atlanta (47) 3:15 PM
The Cowboys have been the second most productive offensive team in terms of yardage but
the numbers have not added up as well on the scoreboard. Atlanta is now 4-1 after a big
Sunday night win but the Falcons caught tons of breaks in the last two games and this looks
like one of the more phony contenders at this point in the season. The running game is not
close to as strong as last season and the defense has been there for the taking, allowing 360
yards per game. Atlanta has only allowed 15 points per game but those numbers will catch up
as the Falcons have seen several opponents miss on scoring opportunities. One big game
against the 49ers is skewing the season statistics for the Falcons and this should be a
challenging road environment. COWBOYS BY 7
NY GIANTS (-7) Arizona (46½) 7:20 PM
Most have viewed the Cardinals as a fluke with last year’s Super Bowl run as the results have
been marginal this season but look no further than the schedule as Arizona has had a tough
slate early in the year. In contrast the Giants had faced the weakest schedule in the league
before last week ’s game. The big showdown with the Saints turned into a laugher as New
York was horribly exposed on both sides of the ball. The Giants have been a tough home
team but Arizona has covered in four consecutive games as underdogs. Arizona has a limited
running game which will be a major disadvantage in this match-up but the Cardinal defense
has been much better than most assume. This is an inflated line as the Cardinals are still an
explosive offensive team that will be a favorable team to back catching more than seven
points. The Giants are yet to have an impressive win as wins over the Cowboys and Redskins
are not even valuable at this point in the year. GIANTS BY 3
MONDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2009
Philadelphia (-6½) WASHINGTON 7:35 PM
Changing the QB and the play -calling is not likely to be a magic fix for the Redskins who are
on the way to a disastrous season that is likely to have many casualties. The Redskins can
not be trusted to score points and even though this has been a decent defensive team the
Eagles should have an excellent plan of attack following an embarrassing loss to the Raiders
last week. Philadelphia has great numbers on both sides of the ball even though it did not add
up to success last week and a veteran club will get prepared in a much more effective fashion
this week. Washington has a shot at redemption but the Redskins can not be trusted given the
inability to score and the losses to some of the worst teams in the league through the #32
rated schedule. There is plenty of history in this match-up be solving the disarray for the
Redskins with a few shake-up moves is not going to happen. EAGLES BY 10
Last Week's College Stats Last Week's College Stats
Match-Up Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO Match-Up Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO
Arkansas State 51 10 18 34 29 20 39 234 3 Kent State -6.5 28 21 41 152 11 25 195 2
UL-Monroe -2 16 14 41 124 8 17 150 1 Eastern Michigan 51.5 6 14 44 183 10 19 75 2
Boise State -9 28 25 44 193 22 32 187 2 Hawaii 62 23 26 24 77 31 45 367 2
Tulsa 56 21 12 26 88 15 28 207 0 Idaho -7.5 35 20 39 194 14 17 226 1
Cincinnati -1.5 34 21 37 189 16 32 212 1 BYU -17.5 38 27 52 166 27 39 346 0
South Florida 48.5 17 17 36 168 15 34 208 2 San Diego State 54 28 16 16 20 22 34 322 1
Pittsburgh -6.5 24 21 46 223 16 24 153 2 Stanford 53.5 38 26 40 150 22 36 434 2
Rutgers 46 17 16 20 38 23 41 248 2 Arizona -4.5 43 23 14 138 40 52 415 2
Oklahoma 52.5 13 18 22 -16 26 49 327 5 Illinois -3.5 14 25 41 185 22 37 258 3
Texas -3 16 20 40 142 21 40 127 3 Indiana 54 27 23 31 149 23 40 333 1
NC State 47 20 22 27 79 31 55 315 3 Memphis 54 16 24 35 170 26 42 255 2
Boston College -2.5 52 20 43 293 13 25 187 0 Southern Miss -14.5 36 21 46 205 10 21 155 1
Ohio State -13.5 18 12 28 66 17 31 221 5 Northern Illinois -7.5 19 18 37 164 15 26 157 1
Purdue 45 26 24 31 80 31 52 281 3 Toledo 60.5 20 21 34 157 19 26 230 3
Bowling Green -3 31 24 24 79 28 41 376 0 Louisville 47 25 24 47 162 24 31 295 4
Ball State 56 17 18 42 273 10 30 131 1 Connecticut -13 38 22 42 208 14 21 273 1
Northwestern 49.5 14 22 29 79 34 47 291 2 Kansas -8 30 23 22 -8 32 54 431 2
Michigan State -14 24 19 34 94 21 31 281 1 Colorado 54.5 34 21 43 147 14 25 175 3
Iowa 47.5 20 16 39 65 17 23 218 1 Miami, FL -12.5 27 26 46 70 20 27 293 0
Wisconsin -2 10 14 33 87 15 25 143 3 Central Florida 46 7 11 24 53 13 31 176 1
Virginia -3.5 20 9 38 63 14 26 138 1 Arkansas 58 20 13 34 133 12 27 224 0
Maryland 45 9 17 33 126 16 38 158 4 Florida -24.5 23 24 46 136 17 27 255 4
Wake Forest 48.5 3 13 44 81 12 26 97 2 Navy -6.5 38 18 60 331 4 9 68 1
Clemson -7.5 38 16 33 195 15 24 187 2 SMU 53.5 35 21 27 176 19 41 200 0
Baylor 52.5 10 18 21 89 26 46 275 3 Washington 47.5 17 20 27 99 22 38 279 3
Iowa State -2.5 24 27 46 240 25 36 214 1 Arizona State -6.5 24 24 27 169 22 36 295 1
UAB 55 13 18 40 230 12 21 121 1 Utah -15 35 14 31 153 17 24 174 2
Mississippi -23 48 22 33 163 21 31 338 0 UNLV 60 15 23 33 91 25 47 236 2
Georgia -7.5 34 19 37 173 16 31 226 1 San Jose State 57.5 21 20 31 124 20 35 221 1
Vanderbilt 48 10 16 36 122 17 34 174 1 Fresno State -20 41 22 43 302 10 17 124 1
Kentucky 57 21 21 49 282 9 22 75 0 Louisiana -7 30 23 58 230 16 25 204 1
Auburn -14 14 16 49 220 11 25 95 1 Western Kentucky 51 22 15 33 167 9 17 141 3
Army 37 13 15 48 181 6 8 75 1 Troy -8 42 25 39 174 28 38 391 3
Temple -10.5 27 16 38 80 8 17 115 1 Florida Intl 58 33 24 36 38 28 50 265 1
Central Michigan -7 34 21 32 188 18 30 238 1 Florida Atlantic -1 44 29 40 220 21 40 308 0
Western Michigan 57 23 27 26 87 40 66 410 1 North Texas 61.5 40 23 36 270 17 24 246 2
Wyoming 45 0 16 35 100 14 31 74 1 Mississippi State -5 27 19 50 178 14 20 155 0
Air Force -11 10 17 69 267 1 5 2 0 Mid Tennessee St 54 6 14 25 42 19 39 206 4
Miami, OH 47 7 13 30 52 19 30 166 4 Delaware State 6 11 26 65 18 34 151 0
Ohio -14 28 22 33 226 16 32 172 1 Michigan NL 63 34 54 461 15 18 266 1
Nevada -7.5 35 20 46 313 10 24 189 2
Utah State 66.5 32 21 34 74 25 42 353 1 Last Week's NFL Stats
Minnesota 44.5 0 7 18 37 10 22 101 1 CHIEFS 36.5 14 16 35 110 17 32 158 0
Penn State -17 20 21 43 177 21 32 287 0 REDSKINS -6.5 6 7 20 118 15 30 147 2
Marshall 51.5 7 16 34 58 17 35 149 4 TEXANS 46.5 28 26 31 87 28 40 385 2
West Virginia -20.5 24 13 31 147 16 23 166 2 BENGALS -3.5 17 14 17 46 23 35 250 3
South Carolina 43.5 6 19 27 64 20 46 214 2 BROWNS 38 14 12 23 91 9 26 106 4
Alabama -18 20 17 38 264 10 20 92 4 STEELERS -14 27 28 36 140 23 35 403 4
USC -10 34 21 33 121 19 29 380 1 RAVENS 45.5 31 20 18 81 28 43 367 0
Notre Dame 50.5 27 27 31 82 25 44 285 0 VIKINGS -3 33 19 31 167 21 29 259 0
California -3.5 45 17 41 289 14 23 205 0 RAMS 42.5 20 13 18 55 22 34 207 1
UCLA 44 26 17 26 137 21 42 311 2 JAGUARS -9.5 23 33 38 166 30 43 326 3
Houston -17 44 31 36 182 30 43 334 0 GIANTS 47.5 27 17 19 84 18 36 241 2
Tulane 68.5 16 26 43 187 22 34 250 1 SAINTS -3 48 28 39 133 23 30 360 0
Texas Tech 59 31 15 25 25 23 32 234 0 PANTHERS -3 28 22 48 267 9 17 55 3
Nebraska -10.5 10 16 30 70 23 38 215 2 BUCCANEERS 40.5 21 12 25 124 11 17 121 2
Texas A&M -5.5 14 19 23 -13 21 45 314 5 LIONS 48 0 10 18 78 11 25 71 3
Kansas State 59 62 24 52 232 15 19 192 0 PACKERS -14 26 23 30 107 29 37 328 2
Virginia Tech -3.5 23 13 31 175 10 14 159 2 EAGLES -14.5 9 14 14 67 22 46 216 0
Georgia Tech 54 28 19 63 309 1 7 51 2 RAIDERS 40.5 13 18 35 116 17 28 209 2
Missouri 55.5 17 16 24 68 22 44 325 4 CARDINALS 46 27 21 26 62 34 43 282 2
Oklahoma State -7 33 16 35 124 22 36 227 0 SEAHAWKS -3 3 7 11 14 11 30 114 2
Rice 54 13 17 26 78 29 50 263 3 BILLS 35.5 16 20 42 142 15 30 154 2
East Carolina -18.5 49 20 43 173 22 30 286 3 JETS -9.5 13 15 40 318 10 30 96 6
Akron 46 17 19 30 134 17 34 200 3 TITANS 38.5 0 9 36 193 2 14 -7 5
Buffalo -8 21 19 37 107 20 35 205 2 PATRIOTS -9 59 32 30 193 38 45 426 0
Colorado State 50 6 10 35 70 10 20 112 1 BEARS 46 14 21 23 83 27 43 290 3
TCU -22.5 44 26 46 275 16 24 224 1 FALCONS -4 21 16 23 68 19 33 185 2
New Mexico State 42 7 6 25 74 13 20 68 3 BRONCOS
Louisiana Tech -20.5 45 30 56 315 14 24 225 1 CHARGERS
4th Quarter Covers:
Boise State led 28-14 entering the 4th
quarter but the only scoring in the final
15:00 minutes was an 89-yard Tulsa
drive to take the cover back. In one of
the biggest games of the day, sloppy
play dominated as Oklahoma and
Texas were tied at 13 -13 entering the
final quarter but Texas got the winning
field goal and interceptions sealed the
win and a push for most though some
OU backers would have won with 3½
available throughout the week in some
spots. Miami led just 17-7 late in the 3rd
quarter but pulled away with ten points
in the 4th to win and cover against UCF.
Maryland led Virginia 9-3 until just over
two minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. A
32-yard interception return was a key
play and Virginia seale d the win and
cover despite only 201 yards. The final
Cavalier score came after Maryland
was forced to go for a 4 th and long from
their own one. Iowa and Wisconsin
were tied at 10 -10 entering the 4th in
game Wisconsin led 10-0 at one point.
Interceptions helped Iowa pull away and
stay undefeated. Army and Temple
were tied at 13 -13 late in game Army
had a big yardage edge. A late fumble
deep in their own territory cost Army the
cover as the Owls went on to score to
push the margin to 14. Ohio led just 14-
7 until just seconds remaining in the
third quarter, but pulled away in the 4th
quarter against Miami. Utah was up 28-
6 but lost the cover in the third quarter
as UNLV scored twice but a late score
got the cash back for the Utes. Utah
State led entering the 4th quarter as an
underdog but Nevada scored twice to
push the lead to eleven with just over
four minutes to go. Utah State scored
with just over two minutes left to get the
ATS win back. Fresno State led 41-14
but San Jose State had a 59-yard pass
play sco re with nine seconds left to
leave many with a push at a 20-point
margin. Louisville scored as time
expired to cut Connecticut’s lead down
to 13, which was the closing number for
most. The extra point was missed
however as many eager bettors
watched with great interest. USC led
27-14 entering the 4th quarter but Notre
Dame rallied to get within seven and
actually was given multiple chances to
tie the game up in the closing seconds.
Stanford led 38 -29 entering the 4th
quarter but Arizona rallied to win 43-38
falling in between the early and the late
lines. A key spread play came as
Arizona went for two in the 3rd quarter
hoping to tie at 31 but failed. Arizona
State scored on a long pass play with
five seconds left to break a 17-17 tie
with Washington. Rice was down just
13-28 late in the third quarter even after
allowing a kickoff return for a
touchdown but East Carolina dominated
the 4th quarter to create a blowout final
margin. Southern Miss led 30-16 late in
the game but scored again in the final
minutes to push the final margin over all
spreads in one of big line movers of the
week. The Chiefs and Redskins were
tied at 6-6 entering the 4th quarter but
Kansas City kicked two field goals and
added a safety in the final four minutes
for their first win. The Vikings dominated
Baltimore for 50 minutes, leading 27-10
in the 4th quarter with huge yardage
advantages but Baltimore posted over
200 yards in the fourth quarter to storm
back while Minnesota settled for field
goals. Baltimore took the lead 31 -30 but
Minnesota got the go-ahead field goal
and the Ravens missed their
opportunity to do the same. Carolina led
21-7 late in the third quarter before
Tampa Bay scored on a kickoff return
touchdown and an interception return.
The Panthers would still win and cover
with the final touchdown coming with
just over 30 seconds to go in the game.
The Bears crushed Atlanta in terms of
yardage but came up empty in three red
zone trips in the game. With just over
six minutes to go Chicago tied the game
at 14 -14 but aided by a great kickoff
return the Falcons scored with just over
three minutes to go to take the lead.
Chicago went right down the field but a
4th and inches turned into a 4th and six
with a false start deep in Atlanta
territory and the Bears could not come
up with the answer to force OT.
NCAA SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Home Chalk Failure Retry
PLAY AGAINST: Any college football double-digit home
favorite that lost S/U at home in the previous game.
68-39-1, 63.6% since 2003
PLAY AGAINST: Nebraska (PLAY ON: Iowa State)
Tighten It: If double-digit home favorite was also a double-digit favorite in the
home loss the previous week.
15-6-1, 71.4% since 2003
Fits:Nebraska (PLAY ON: Iowa State)
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Rested Home Underdogs
PLAY ON: Any NFL home underdog of six or more coming
off a bye week.
33-10, 76.7% since 1980
PLAY ON: Miami Dolphins
Tighten It: If the home dog won S/U in its last game
10-2, 83.3% since 1980
Fits: Miami
OVER/UNDER PLAYS OF THE WEEK
NCAA: ‘UNDER’ Iowa State/Nebraska
Nebraska has an elite defense but the offense has struggled to get
anything going until late in the games. Iowa State has posted strong
numbers the last three weeks but the competition takes a big step
up and the Cyclone QB won’t be 100 percent if he plays. Nebraska
could change QBs as well so this could be a defensive battle.
NFL: ‘OVER’ Minnesota/Pittsburgh
Both teams pride themselves on stopping the run which means
there will be a lot of passing in this game. Conditions in Pittsburgh
might scare this total down but both teams have been very high
scoring on the season. Minnesota had to settle for field goals last
week or they likely would have scored in the 40s against the Ravens
and neither defense has been as effective as most expected. The
‘over’ has hit in four straight for both teams.
2009 SEASON TRENDS
NCAA (through October 17)
Home teams are 156-171-6 (27-24-2 last week)
Favorites are 159-176-7 (31-20-3 last week)
Double-Digit Favorites are 75-88-4 (11-10-2 last week)
Favorites of 20 or more are 25-34-1 (3-2-1 last week)
Home Favorites are 93-110-6 (16-9-2 last week)
Road Favorites are 61-63 (15-11 last week)
Teams in 2nd straight road games are 47-48-1 (7-7 last week)
NFL (through October 18 – Monday’s game pending)
Home teams are 44-41-1 (5-8 last week)
Favorites are 46-40-1 (5-8 last week)
Double-Digit Favorites are 9-6 (1-2 last week)
Home Favorites are 31-27-1 (4-7 last week)
Road Favorites are 14-13 (1-1 last week)
Teams in 2nd straight road games are 10-9 (2-0 last week)
Teams off bye weeks are 5-2 (2-1 last week)
Over/Unders are 43/42/1 (6/7 last week)
HISTORICALLY SPEAKING
All trends are Against the Spread unless noted:
Some pointspreads have been estimated and may not be accurate by game time
NCAA: Tulsa is 4-8 L12 as road favorites – UTEP is 8-4 L12 as home underdogs
Florida State is 10-16 on the road since ’04 – UNC is 1-14-1 S/U vs. FSU since ’83
Rutgers is 3-6 as road favorites since ’05 – Army is 7-18 as home underdogs since ’03
UAB is 9-14 on the road since ’06 – Marshall is 6-13-1 L20 as favorites
Akron is 10-16-1 L27 on the road – Syracuse is 5-10-1 at home since ‘07
Maryland is 6-13 L19 road games – Duke is 7-17 L24 home games
Georgia Tech is 6-12 vs. Virginia since ’91 – Virginia is 15-5 L20 as home underdogs
Clemson is 13-3 L16 as underdogs – Miami, FL is 8-15 L23 games at home
Illinois is 9-5 L13 road games – Purdue is 6-3 L9 vs. Illinois
Central Michigan is 0-4-2 as road favorites – Bowling Green is 4-15 L19 home games
Indiana is 15-32-3 on the road since ’00 – Northwestern is 3-11 L14 as favorites
Minnesota is 6-13 vs. Ohio St since ’86 – Ohio St is 20-13 as double-digit favorites since ‘05
South Florida is 7-2 L9 as underdogs – Pittsburgh is 6-10 L16 as favorites
Connecticut is 6-13 as road dogs since ’04 – West Virginia is 6-12-1 L19 as home favorites
Vanderbilt is 8-4-1 L13 as underdogs – South Carolina is 14-8-2 L24 as favorites
Iowa State is 18-7 as double-digit dogs since ’04 – Nebraska is 15-9 L26 as DD favorites
Ball State is 19-5 L24 road games – Eastern Michigan is 3-13 L16 home games
Northern Illinois is 1-9 L10 road games – Miami, OH is 5-12 L17 lined home games
Oklahoma State is 10-4 L14 as favorites – Baylor is 3-11 L14 as home underdogs
Kent State is 14-20-1 on road since ’04 – Ohio is 12-6 L18 home games
Buffalo is 9-1-1 L11 on the road – Western Michigan is 3-8 L11 as home favorites
Louisiana Tech is 1-10 L11 road games – Utah State is 6-0 L6 home games
Boston College is 10-6 vs. Notre Dame since ’87 – Notre Dame is 5-11 L16 as home favorites
Tennessee is 8-15 vs. Alabama since ’86 – Alabama is 10-21 as home favorites since ‘04
Oregon 5-0 S/U and ATS L5 vs. Washington – Washington is 23-16 as home dogs since ‘81
Texas A&M is 7-21 vs. Texas Tech since ’81 – Texas Tech is 74-50-2 at home since ‘85
Penn State is 3-7 L10 vs. Michigan – Michigan is 8-5 L13 as home underdogs
Oklahoma is 5-1 L6 as road favorites – Kansas is 28-45-1 as home dogs since ‘80
Texas is 5-8 L13 on the road – Missouri is 35-26-1 as home underdogs since ‘81
Wake Forest is 4-9-1 L14 as road favorites – Navy is 10-24-2 as home dogs since ‘89
San Diego State is 7-14 L21 road games – Colorado State is 8-0 L8 lined home games
Air Force is 9-3 L12 vs. Utah – Utah is 10-5 L15 home games
Idaho is 9-1 L10 as underdogs – Nevada is 17-6-1 L24 at home
UCLA is 20-9-1 L30 as underdogs – Arizona is 8-2 L10 at home
Washington State is 6-2 L8 vs. California – California is 8-0 L8 as home favorites
Temple is 10-5 L15 road games – Toledo is 28-12 L40 home games
Arkansas is 11-4 L15 vs. Mississippi – Mississippi is 7-10-1 L18 as home favorites
Louisville is 8-3 L11 vs. Cincinnati – Cincinnati is 1-5 L6 as home favorites
Tulane is 7-12-1 L20 vs. Southern Miss – Southern Miss is 3-11 L14 as double-digit fav orites
Central Florida is 1-8-1 L10 as road favorites – Rice is 17-11 L28 as home underdogs
Colorado is 6-14 L20 on the road – Kansas State is 1-5 L6 lined home games
TCU is 16-21-3 on the road since ’03 – BYU is 0-6 L6 home games
Florida is 1-5 L6 vs. Mississippi State – Mississippi State is 5-1 L6 as home underdogs
SMU is 6-2 L8 vs. Houston – Houston is 10-22-1 as double-digit favorites since ‘92
Fresno State is 3-9 L12 as road favorites – New Mexico State is 2-5 L7 as home underdogs
Auburn is 1-7 L8 on the road – LSU is 2-12-1 L15 home games
UNLV is 3-7 L10 vs. New Mexico – New Mexico is 10-16-1 L27 home games
Oregon State is 6-3 L9 vs. USC – USC is 3-9 L12 following the Notre Dame game
Arizona State is 2-8-1 L11 as underdogs – Stanford is 5-1 L6 as fav orites
Boise State is 0-4 L4 vs. Hawaii – Hawaii is 16-10 as home underdogs since ‘99
Florida Atlantic is 4-0 L4 vs. Louisiana – Louisiana is 5-2 L7 home games
Florida International is 6-3 L9 as road underdogs – Arkansas St is 2-5 L7 as home favorites
North Texas is 18-25 L43 on the road – Troy is 13-7 L20 as home favorites
UL-Monroe is 9-4 L13 road games – Kentucky is 40-50-1 as favorites since ‘80
Western Kentucky is 3-2 L5 road games – Middle Tennessee State is 10-5-1 L16 as favorites
NFL: San Diego is 23-13 as road favs since ’92 – KC is 44-21-2 as home dogs since ‘80
Indianapolis is 7-13 L20 as road favorites – St. Louis is 3-11 L14 as home underdogs
Chicago is 2-6 L8 road games – Cincinnati is 1-6 L7 home games
Green Bay is 8-3-1 L12 as road favorites – Cleveland is 10-5 L15 as home underdogs
Minnesota is 5-10 L15 as underdogs – Pittsburgh is 6-2 L8 as home favorites
New England is 1-3 L4 vs. Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay 10-5-1 L16 as double-digit dogs
San Francisco is 5-0 L5 as underdogs – Houston is 6-9 L15 as favorites
NY Jets are 1-6 L7 as road favorites – Oakland is 9-20 L29 as home underdogs
Buffalo is 5-1 L6 road games – Carolina is 8-5-1 L14 home games
New Orleans is 12-3 L15 as road favorites – Miami is 4-10 L14 as home underdogs
Atlanta is 8-11 L19 as underdogs – Dallas is 5-7 L12 home games
Arizona is 4-0 L4 as underdogs – NY Giants are 9-2-1 L12 as favorites
Philadelphia is 8-12-1 L21 as road favorites – Washington is 5-8-1 L14 as home underdogs
TREND OF THE WEEK
Stanford is 9-0 ATS the last nine home games
Power Sweep & Power Plays
http://www.mediafire.com/?sharekey=65f0503a3cb889341f8e0fff488e27e021c41ebb5711b3b7f7e866bfb1230ce0
http://www.mediafire.com/?sharekey=65f0503a3cb889341f8e0fff488e27e021c41ebb5711b3b7f7e866bfb1230ce0
Any updated rankings? This is what I gathered.
CKO went 3-2 last week on 11s and 10s dropping the 11 on Minnesota plus the points vs Penn State.
Here are my other figures from last week,
The Max
College Football 2-3
NFL 4-1
Pointwise College
5* 0-2
4* 2-0
3* 0-1
2* 0-1
1* 1-1
Pointwise NFL
5* 1-0
4* 1-1
3* 0-1
2* 1-0
Winning Points
NFL Best Bets
2-0
NFL Preferred
2-0
NCAA Best Bets
1-1
NCAA Preferred
1-3
Pointwise Red Sheet
NCAA Football 1-4
NFL 1-0
CKO went 3-2 last week on 11s and 10s dropping the 11 on Minnesota plus the points vs Penn State.
Here are my other figures from last week,
The Max
College Football 2-3
NFL 4-1
Pointwise College
5* 0-2
4* 2-0
3* 0-1
2* 0-1
1* 1-1
Pointwise NFL
5* 1-0
4* 1-1
3* 0-1
2* 1-0
Winning Points
NFL Best Bets
2-0
NFL Preferred
2-0
NCAA Best Bets
1-1
NCAA Preferred
1-3
Pointwise Red Sheet
NCAA Football 1-4
NFL 1-0
UGK:
Got it.
Would you or somebody else feel free to chime in, happen to know who is doing particularly well year in and year out or would be a great fade?
The Max, CKO, and The Red Sheet look pretty poor.
Marc Lawrence has had some really solid weeks and StatFox looks pretty good.
I am thinking that some of these are great fades.
I know Winning Points had a pretty nice week last week but I think they may be more of a fade.
Pigskin Prophesy?
Pointwise?
Logical Approach?
Nelly's?
Got it.
Would you or somebody else feel free to chime in, happen to know who is doing particularly well year in and year out or would be a great fade?
The Max, CKO, and The Red Sheet look pretty poor.
Marc Lawrence has had some really solid weeks and StatFox looks pretty good.
I am thinking that some of these are great fades.
I know Winning Points had a pretty nice week last week but I think they may be more of a fade.
Pigskin Prophesy?
Pointwise?
Logical Approach?
Nelly's?
LOGICAL APPROACH
2009 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
Issue # 8 Games through October 26, 2009
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: BYU + 2 over Tcu - TCU is unbeaten and thinking BCS Bowl as they face their toughest test to date. TCU did win a hard fought 14-10 game at Clemson in a game between unfamiliar foes. Now they are battling for first place in the Mountain West and BYU has already been tested with their opening win over Oklahoma. Of course a few weeks later they lost badly to overrated Florida State. BYU has the better offense with TCU having the better defense. But BYU's defense is also pretty solid as is the TCU offense. This is revenge for BYU whose unbeaten season last year was ended at TCU in a one sided 32-7 loss. BYU now has a chance to turn the tables. Experienced QB Hall and RB Unga give the Cougars excellent balance and Provo has always been a hostile environment for visitors. These teams have split 4 meetings since TCU joined the MWC in 2005. The spot sets up well for the host. BYU wins 27-20.
Other Featured College Selections
Oregon - 8 over WASHINGTON - Oregon has reeled off 5 straight wins since their opening loss at still unbeaten Boise State. The last 3 have been by double digits including a road win at UCLA just before last week's Bye. Oregon's offense is primarily run oriented and Washington allows 5.1 yards per rush. The Husky defense also ranks # 100 against the pass. In fact the Washington defense overall ranks # 106 while the Oregon 'D' is # 15. It's clear that Washington is a much improved team and QB Locker is an NFL prospect. This series has been one sided in recent seasons with Oregon winning the last 5 by margins of 34, 24, 20. 24 and 25 points. That's too much of a gap to make up in just one season under a first year coach and while the gap has narrowed, Oregon is still the better program. The price is reasonable for an Oregon team that has designs on the Pac 10 title and a home game next week with USC. This would often be a look ahead spot for Oregon but the difference in the two defenses greatly reduces that possibility. Oregon wins 38-21.
NEVADA - 13 ½ over Idaho - This has been a dream season for Idaho which became Bowl eligible with last week's win over Hawaii. The program's only Bowl appearance was the 1998 Humanitarian Bowl so this is an exciting time for the Vandals and their fans. This will be their toughest test to date as Nevada is also unbeaten in WAC play and has been tested by Notre Dame and Missouri. The Wolfpack have long had a bully mentality at home and have dominated this series. Nevada has won all 4 meetings as WAC rivals by margins of 48, 38, 16 and 35 points the past 4 seasons. True, this is a much improved Idaho team and the Vandals are a perfect 7-0 ATS and that streak will ultimately end. Idaho will face the nation's top rushing attack, averaging 293 ypg. Nevada can also throw the ball. Both teams have weak pass defenses so this game could produce the week's highest total points. It's easy to understand why there will be support for Idaho given their great ATS record. But there could be a letdown after becoming Bowl eligible and Nevada is a very focused team after their rough start when stepping up in class. Nevada's ground game is decisive. Nevada wins 51-30.
MICHIGAN STATE + 1 over Iowa - They are not flashy on offense or have a dominating defense but Iowa just continues to win. The Hawkeyes have won 11 straight dating back to last season as they continue to climb in the polls and have taken control of the Big 10 race as its lone unbeaten team. Michigan State is one of a trio of teams with one conference loss. After an opening conference loss at Wisconsin the Spartans are playing with confidence after 3 straight Big 10 wins. MSU has the clearly better offense but also compares favorably with Iowa in many defensive stats which might surprise many. Example: State allows just 3.0 yards per rush (Iowa 3.9). Iowa's had several narrow escapes this season en route to 7-0. This has been one of the more pronounced homer series as the home team's won 9 straight. All good things must end and this week Iowa's ascension in the rankings is halted by a similarly well coached team. Michigan State wins 23-17.
Best of the Rest (Opinions)
UTEP + 8 over Tulsa (Wed)
NORTH CAROLINA - 2 ½ over Florida St (Thur)
Central Michigan - 7 over BOWLING GREEN
NORTHWESTERN - 4 ½ over Indiana
South Florida + 7 over PITTSBURGH
NEBRASKA - 18 over Iowa State
Ball State - 3 over EASTERN MICHIGAN
WESTERN MICHIGAN - 5 over Buffalo
UTAH STATE + 1 ½ over Louisiana Tech
ALABAMA - 16 over Tennessee
MICHIGAN + 5 over Penn State
Wake Forest + 3 over NAVY
CALIFORNIA - 36 over Washington State
TOLEDO - 3 over Temple
Arkansas + 5 over MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHERN MISS - 21 over Tulane
KANSAS STATE - 4 over Colorado
LSU - 7 ½ over AUBURN
NEW MEXICO + 3 over Unlv
USC - 21 over Oregon State
ARKANSAS ST - 11 over Florida International
KENTUCKY - 17 over UL Monroe
The Rest (Leans)
Rutgers - 10 over ARMY (Fri)
MARSHALL - 7 over Uab
SYRACUSE - 10 over Akron
Maryland + 5 over DUKE
VIRGINIA + 4 over Georgia Tech
Clemson + 6 ½ over MIAMI FLA
PURDUE - 10 over Illinois
OHIO STATE - 18 over Minnesota
WEST VIRGINIA - 7 over Connecticut
Vanderbilt + 13 over SOUTH CAROLINA
Northern Illinois - 10 over MIAMI OHIO
Oklahoma State - 10 over BAYLOR
OHIO U - 10 over Kent State
Boston College + 8 over NOTRE DAME
TEXAS TECH - 21 over Texas A&M
Oklahoma - 8 over KANSAS
Texas - 13 ½ over MISSOURI
San Diego State + 8 ½ over COLORADO STATE
UTAH - 10 over Air Force
ARIZONA - 8 over Ucla
Louisville + 18 over CINCINNATI
RICE + 10 ½ over Central Florida
Florida - 22 over MISSISSIPPI STATE
HOUSTON - 17 over Smu
Fresno State - 25 over NEW MEXICO STATE
STANFORD - 6 over Arizona State
Boise State - 24 over HAWAII
UL LAFAYETTE - 3 over Florida Atlantic
TROY - 14 * over North Texas
Western Kentucky + 18 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE
* Projected Line
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: PITTSBURGH - 4 over Minnesota - 6-0 Minnesota is an underdog for the first time this season. Pittsburgh's been favored in all 6 of their games but is just 1-5 ATS. Both of their losses have been by just a FG. Pittsburgh should be well prepared as they have a Bye next week while QB Favre and his Vikings have a key Divisional and emotional rematch at Green Bay. The Steeler offense has started to emerge, averaging 461 ypg in their current 3 game winning streak. Both teams have solid wins over both Detroit and Cleveland. Overall Pittsburgh has the better stats on both sides of the football, gaining 56 more yards and allowing 67 yards less than the Vikes. But Pittsburgh's been less efficient than Minnesota in translating yards into points (the 'X' Factor). The Steeler passing game has been a strength while the Minny pass defense has been a weakness. This is also Minnesota's first game outdoors since Opening Day in Cleveland 6 weeks ago. Pittsburgh's defense will pose problems for Favre which should mean turnovers and good field position for the Pittsburgh offense. Pittsburgh wins 27-17.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
San Francisco + 3 over HOUSTON - The 49ers have an extra week to stew over their home blowout loss to Atlanta before their Bye. Coach Singletary will have run a number of hard practices to get the 49ers refocused and RB Gore is probable to return. Houston had a nice road win at Cincinnati to even their record at 3-3 which positions them for a run at a Wild Card. But their inability to run the ball is a concern and the 49ers are a solid defensive team notwithstanding the Atlanta debacle. Houston averages just 3.0 yards per rush while allowing 4.9. The 49ers average 4.2 while allowing 3.3. That should enable the 49ers to control line play on both sides of the football. Houston does have the overall better offense but defense usually trumps offense when two unfamiliar foes meet, especially when the team with the better offense relies more on the pass than the run. Look for a well prepared 49ers team to pull the upset. San Francisco win 23-20.
N Y Jets - 6 over OAKLAND - In their OT loss to Buffalo the Jets ran for an outstanding 318 yards. That's 3 straight losses for the Jets who are now 3-3. Oakland stunned the football world with their 13-9 win over Philadelphia, a win keyed by their defense that harassed Philly QB McNabb all game. The Oakland offense continues to struggle as the Raiders are averaging just 10 points per game. The Jets' defense has struggled to stop the run in their last 4 games and has now lost key run stopper Jenkins for the season. But Oakland's offense poses less of a threat to the Jets' defense than has any other foe this season. Two teams have rushed for over 200 yards against the Raider defense. Last week's results have kept this line under a TD but the Jets have shown they are a solid football team notwithstanding their 3 straight losses. They are stepping down in class here and with a home rematch with Miami up next they cannot afford to lose a very winnable game to a foe they clearly out-talent. Look for the Jets to wear down the Raiders. N Y Jets win 23-10.
N Y GIANTS - 7 over Arizona - Arizona played brilliantly in routing Seattle last week while the Giants got a reality check with their one sided loss at New Orleans. The Saints exposed some of the Giants' defensive vulnerability that the Cards would like to attack if QB Warner is given time. Problem is that Arizona's lack of a running game allows the Giants' defense to pressure Warner, which should lead to multiple turnovers. The Cards' defense does excel against the run (60 ypg, # 1) but that is at the expense of their #31 pass defense that Giants' QB Manning can exploit. The Giants actually have a higher average per pass attempt and completion than does Arizona. The Giants' 'D' ranks #1 against the pass while also playing above average run defense. The proven character of the Giants suggests they'll rebound nicely especially in front of the Sunday night tv audience. They also have most of the fundamental edges. N Y Giants win 31-16.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
KANSAS CITY + 5 over San Diego
Indianapolis - 13 over ST LOUIS
Atlanta + 4 over DALLAS
Philadelphia - 7 over WASHINGTON (Monday)
The Rest (Opinions)
Chicago + 1 ½ over CINCINNATI
Green Bay - 7 over CLEVELAND
New England - 14 ½ over Tampa Bay (London)
CAROLINA - 7 over Buffalo
MIAMI + 6 ½ over New Orleans
Byes:
Baltimore
Denver
Detroit
Jacksonville
Seattle
Tennessee
Best of the NFL Totals
Chicago/Cincinnati UNDER 42
Minnesota/Pittsburgh OVER 45 ½
New England/Tampa Bay OVER 45
N Y Jets/Oakland UNDER 35
New Orleans/Miami OVER 47
Philadelphia/Washington UNDER 38
Money Line Recommendations
College:
VIRGINIA
South Florida
MICHIGAN
NEW MEXICO
Pro:
KANSAS CITY
San Francisco
MIAMI
Atlanta
NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s).
2009 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
Issue # 8 Games through October 26, 2009
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: BYU + 2 over Tcu - TCU is unbeaten and thinking BCS Bowl as they face their toughest test to date. TCU did win a hard fought 14-10 game at Clemson in a game between unfamiliar foes. Now they are battling for first place in the Mountain West and BYU has already been tested with their opening win over Oklahoma. Of course a few weeks later they lost badly to overrated Florida State. BYU has the better offense with TCU having the better defense. But BYU's defense is also pretty solid as is the TCU offense. This is revenge for BYU whose unbeaten season last year was ended at TCU in a one sided 32-7 loss. BYU now has a chance to turn the tables. Experienced QB Hall and RB Unga give the Cougars excellent balance and Provo has always been a hostile environment for visitors. These teams have split 4 meetings since TCU joined the MWC in 2005. The spot sets up well for the host. BYU wins 27-20.
Other Featured College Selections
Oregon - 8 over WASHINGTON - Oregon has reeled off 5 straight wins since their opening loss at still unbeaten Boise State. The last 3 have been by double digits including a road win at UCLA just before last week's Bye. Oregon's offense is primarily run oriented and Washington allows 5.1 yards per rush. The Husky defense also ranks # 100 against the pass. In fact the Washington defense overall ranks # 106 while the Oregon 'D' is # 15. It's clear that Washington is a much improved team and QB Locker is an NFL prospect. This series has been one sided in recent seasons with Oregon winning the last 5 by margins of 34, 24, 20. 24 and 25 points. That's too much of a gap to make up in just one season under a first year coach and while the gap has narrowed, Oregon is still the better program. The price is reasonable for an Oregon team that has designs on the Pac 10 title and a home game next week with USC. This would often be a look ahead spot for Oregon but the difference in the two defenses greatly reduces that possibility. Oregon wins 38-21.
NEVADA - 13 ½ over Idaho - This has been a dream season for Idaho which became Bowl eligible with last week's win over Hawaii. The program's only Bowl appearance was the 1998 Humanitarian Bowl so this is an exciting time for the Vandals and their fans. This will be their toughest test to date as Nevada is also unbeaten in WAC play and has been tested by Notre Dame and Missouri. The Wolfpack have long had a bully mentality at home and have dominated this series. Nevada has won all 4 meetings as WAC rivals by margins of 48, 38, 16 and 35 points the past 4 seasons. True, this is a much improved Idaho team and the Vandals are a perfect 7-0 ATS and that streak will ultimately end. Idaho will face the nation's top rushing attack, averaging 293 ypg. Nevada can also throw the ball. Both teams have weak pass defenses so this game could produce the week's highest total points. It's easy to understand why there will be support for Idaho given their great ATS record. But there could be a letdown after becoming Bowl eligible and Nevada is a very focused team after their rough start when stepping up in class. Nevada's ground game is decisive. Nevada wins 51-30.
MICHIGAN STATE + 1 over Iowa - They are not flashy on offense or have a dominating defense but Iowa just continues to win. The Hawkeyes have won 11 straight dating back to last season as they continue to climb in the polls and have taken control of the Big 10 race as its lone unbeaten team. Michigan State is one of a trio of teams with one conference loss. After an opening conference loss at Wisconsin the Spartans are playing with confidence after 3 straight Big 10 wins. MSU has the clearly better offense but also compares favorably with Iowa in many defensive stats which might surprise many. Example: State allows just 3.0 yards per rush (Iowa 3.9). Iowa's had several narrow escapes this season en route to 7-0. This has been one of the more pronounced homer series as the home team's won 9 straight. All good things must end and this week Iowa's ascension in the rankings is halted by a similarly well coached team. Michigan State wins 23-17.
Best of the Rest (Opinions)
UTEP + 8 over Tulsa (Wed)
NORTH CAROLINA - 2 ½ over Florida St (Thur)
Central Michigan - 7 over BOWLING GREEN
NORTHWESTERN - 4 ½ over Indiana
South Florida + 7 over PITTSBURGH
NEBRASKA - 18 over Iowa State
Ball State - 3 over EASTERN MICHIGAN
WESTERN MICHIGAN - 5 over Buffalo
UTAH STATE + 1 ½ over Louisiana Tech
ALABAMA - 16 over Tennessee
MICHIGAN + 5 over Penn State
Wake Forest + 3 over NAVY
CALIFORNIA - 36 over Washington State
TOLEDO - 3 over Temple
Arkansas + 5 over MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHERN MISS - 21 over Tulane
KANSAS STATE - 4 over Colorado
LSU - 7 ½ over AUBURN
NEW MEXICO + 3 over Unlv
USC - 21 over Oregon State
ARKANSAS ST - 11 over Florida International
KENTUCKY - 17 over UL Monroe
The Rest (Leans)
Rutgers - 10 over ARMY (Fri)
MARSHALL - 7 over Uab
SYRACUSE - 10 over Akron
Maryland + 5 over DUKE
VIRGINIA + 4 over Georgia Tech
Clemson + 6 ½ over MIAMI FLA
PURDUE - 10 over Illinois
OHIO STATE - 18 over Minnesota
WEST VIRGINIA - 7 over Connecticut
Vanderbilt + 13 over SOUTH CAROLINA
Northern Illinois - 10 over MIAMI OHIO
Oklahoma State - 10 over BAYLOR
OHIO U - 10 over Kent State
Boston College + 8 over NOTRE DAME
TEXAS TECH - 21 over Texas A&M
Oklahoma - 8 over KANSAS
Texas - 13 ½ over MISSOURI
San Diego State + 8 ½ over COLORADO STATE
UTAH - 10 over Air Force
ARIZONA - 8 over Ucla
Louisville + 18 over CINCINNATI
RICE + 10 ½ over Central Florida
Florida - 22 over MISSISSIPPI STATE
HOUSTON - 17 over Smu
Fresno State - 25 over NEW MEXICO STATE
STANFORD - 6 over Arizona State
Boise State - 24 over HAWAII
UL LAFAYETTE - 3 over Florida Atlantic
TROY - 14 * over North Texas
Western Kentucky + 18 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE
* Projected Line
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: PITTSBURGH - 4 over Minnesota - 6-0 Minnesota is an underdog for the first time this season. Pittsburgh's been favored in all 6 of their games but is just 1-5 ATS. Both of their losses have been by just a FG. Pittsburgh should be well prepared as they have a Bye next week while QB Favre and his Vikings have a key Divisional and emotional rematch at Green Bay. The Steeler offense has started to emerge, averaging 461 ypg in their current 3 game winning streak. Both teams have solid wins over both Detroit and Cleveland. Overall Pittsburgh has the better stats on both sides of the football, gaining 56 more yards and allowing 67 yards less than the Vikes. But Pittsburgh's been less efficient than Minnesota in translating yards into points (the 'X' Factor). The Steeler passing game has been a strength while the Minny pass defense has been a weakness. This is also Minnesota's first game outdoors since Opening Day in Cleveland 6 weeks ago. Pittsburgh's defense will pose problems for Favre which should mean turnovers and good field position for the Pittsburgh offense. Pittsburgh wins 27-17.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
San Francisco + 3 over HOUSTON - The 49ers have an extra week to stew over their home blowout loss to Atlanta before their Bye. Coach Singletary will have run a number of hard practices to get the 49ers refocused and RB Gore is probable to return. Houston had a nice road win at Cincinnati to even their record at 3-3 which positions them for a run at a Wild Card. But their inability to run the ball is a concern and the 49ers are a solid defensive team notwithstanding the Atlanta debacle. Houston averages just 3.0 yards per rush while allowing 4.9. The 49ers average 4.2 while allowing 3.3. That should enable the 49ers to control line play on both sides of the football. Houston does have the overall better offense but defense usually trumps offense when two unfamiliar foes meet, especially when the team with the better offense relies more on the pass than the run. Look for a well prepared 49ers team to pull the upset. San Francisco win 23-20.
N Y Jets - 6 over OAKLAND - In their OT loss to Buffalo the Jets ran for an outstanding 318 yards. That's 3 straight losses for the Jets who are now 3-3. Oakland stunned the football world with their 13-9 win over Philadelphia, a win keyed by their defense that harassed Philly QB McNabb all game. The Oakland offense continues to struggle as the Raiders are averaging just 10 points per game. The Jets' defense has struggled to stop the run in their last 4 games and has now lost key run stopper Jenkins for the season. But Oakland's offense poses less of a threat to the Jets' defense than has any other foe this season. Two teams have rushed for over 200 yards against the Raider defense. Last week's results have kept this line under a TD but the Jets have shown they are a solid football team notwithstanding their 3 straight losses. They are stepping down in class here and with a home rematch with Miami up next they cannot afford to lose a very winnable game to a foe they clearly out-talent. Look for the Jets to wear down the Raiders. N Y Jets win 23-10.
N Y GIANTS - 7 over Arizona - Arizona played brilliantly in routing Seattle last week while the Giants got a reality check with their one sided loss at New Orleans. The Saints exposed some of the Giants' defensive vulnerability that the Cards would like to attack if QB Warner is given time. Problem is that Arizona's lack of a running game allows the Giants' defense to pressure Warner, which should lead to multiple turnovers. The Cards' defense does excel against the run (60 ypg, # 1) but that is at the expense of their #31 pass defense that Giants' QB Manning can exploit. The Giants actually have a higher average per pass attempt and completion than does Arizona. The Giants' 'D' ranks #1 against the pass while also playing above average run defense. The proven character of the Giants suggests they'll rebound nicely especially in front of the Sunday night tv audience. They also have most of the fundamental edges. N Y Giants win 31-16.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
KANSAS CITY + 5 over San Diego
Indianapolis - 13 over ST LOUIS
Atlanta + 4 over DALLAS
Philadelphia - 7 over WASHINGTON (Monday)
The Rest (Opinions)
Chicago + 1 ½ over CINCINNATI
Green Bay - 7 over CLEVELAND
New England - 14 ½ over Tampa Bay (London)
CAROLINA - 7 over Buffalo
MIAMI + 6 ½ over New Orleans
Byes:
Baltimore
Denver
Detroit
Jacksonville
Seattle
Tennessee
Best of the NFL Totals
Chicago/Cincinnati UNDER 42
Minnesota/Pittsburgh OVER 45 ½
New England/Tampa Bay OVER 45
N Y Jets/Oakland UNDER 35
New Orleans/Miami OVER 47
Philadelphia/Washington UNDER 38
Money Line Recommendations
College:
VIRGINIA
South Florida
MICHIGAN
NEW MEXICO
Pro:
KANSAS CITY
San Francisco
MIAMI
Atlanta
NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s).
