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WINNING POINTS
VOL 40/7 WED. OCTOBER 21, 2009
NFL
****BEST BET
Arizona over *Seattle by 14
Arizona is traveling for the first time in four weeks.The Cardinals will be
on an off-surface for them in front of the noisiest outdoor crowd in the
NFL. It’s never easy for a visiting team to play at Qwest Field. Matt
Hasselbeck gave Seattle a huge lift at home last week against Jacksonville
returning from a painful rib injury.The Seahawks caught the Jaguars traveling
cross-country in a flat spot. Those factors won’t be in play for this
matchup. The Cardinals have a far superior passing attack. It’s one of the
best in the NFL with Kurt Warner firing to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan
Boldin, probably the No. 1 wide receiving tandem in the league.They’ll be
operating against a beat-up Seattle secondary that still is without its best
cornerback, Marcus Trufant. Seattle needs to pressure Warner. However,
Seattle’s top pass rusher, Patrick Kerney, missed last Sunday’s game with a
groin injury.The Seahawks got away with a lot of blitzes last week against
Jacksonville’s inexperienced offensive line. They won’t be able to do it,
though, against the veteran Cardinals.Warner is one of the best at picking
up extra pass rushers and has a lightning quick release. The Seahawks
remain extremely banged-up missing seven starters, including nine-time
Pro Bowl left tackle Walter Jones and two other offensive linemen – tackle
Sean Locklear and left guard Rob Sims.The Seahawks are trying to get by
with third-stringer Brandon Frye at left tackle protecting Hasselbeck’s vulnerable
blind spot.The Cards have covered nine of the last 13 in the series.
Arizona swept Seattle last year winning the two games by an average of
nearly 10 points.ARIZONA 38-24.
***BEST BET
Houston over *Cincinnati by 10
Our compliments to the Bengals on being off to their best start sine 2005
with four victories in their first five games. Cincinnati definitely is an
improved club.We’ve cashed with the Bengals several times this season as
one of our top four plays, including during each of the last two weeks during
their upset victories against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. But now is the
week to get off the Bengals following three division games in a row.The
Bengals’ average victory margin this season is four points. Three of their
wins have been by a field goal.We much prefer Cincinnati as an underdog,
not in the role of a favorite.The Bengals have failed to cover in nine of the
last 11 instances when they were asked to lay points.They haven’t been a
good October team historically either. Cincinnati is 3-14 ATS in its last 17
games during October. Houston rolled over Cincinnati last year, 35-6.The
Texans have a highly potent offense. Despite being stopped on two late
goal line stands during the past three weeks that probably would have
resulted in overtimes, the Texans still are averaging 27 points in their past
four games. Matt Schaub has a healthy set of receivers with superstar Andre
Johnson joined by Kevin Walter and dangerous tight end Owen Daniels,
who already has hauled in 25 passes for an 11.8 average per catch. Steve
Slaton is a dangerous running back.The Texans are an up-and-down team
still seeking to fulfill their goal of making the playoffs. They’ve gotten
tougher on the road, though, covering five of their last eight away games
including beating Tennessee in Week 2 when the Titans were still considered
a serious threat to win the AFC South. HOUSTON 30-20.
**PREFERRED
Baltimore over *Minnesota by 7
The record shows 5-0 for Minnesota. Brett Favre does make the Vikings better.
But he doesn’t make them good enough to beat the Ravens, a superior
team.After consecutive close losses to the Patriots and Bengals last week,
the Ravens will be highly motivated in this matchup.That makes Baltimore
a dangerous opponent.The Vikings have built their fancy record against the
Rams, Packers, 49ers, Lions and Browns. Only San Francisco has a winning
record.The other four teams are a combined 4-15.The Ravens are a physical
AFC team strong against the run and balanced on offense behind the
passing of Joe Flacco and the running of multi-purpose Ray Rice. Ray Lewis
and Co. won’t be intimidated by the loud indoor Metrodome crowd, nor
will Baltimore’s huge, physical offensive line be overrun by Vikings pass
rusher Jared Allen. Until last week, the Ravens hadn’t permitted a 100-yard
rusher in 39 straight games.The Ravens will take their frustrations out keying
on Adrian Peterson.Keep Peterson in check, which the Ravens can do,
and you defeat the Vikings. Minnesota has failed to cover 11 of the past 16
times following a victory. BALTIMORE 24-17.
Carolina over *Tampa Bay by 12
The Panthers have done well at Tampa Bay winning five of the last six times
there.That’s when the Buccaneers were decent. No longer can that word
apply to Tampa Bay.Three times already this season they have surrendered
33 or more points.Their run defense ranks among the league’s worst, making
them vulnerable to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Jake
Delhomme has thrown eight interceptions this season. But Delhomme will
be able to pick his spots.The Panthers got a big confidence boost coming
from 15 points down to beat Washington last week to salvage their season.
The Panthers can feed on that momentum.Tampa Bay has lost nine in a
row. Buccaneers first-year head coach, Raheem Morris, has been overmatched.
So has his second-year quarterback Josh Johnson, making just his
third NFL start.The Panthers have shored-up their run defense, picking up
veteran run-stuffer Hollis Thomas. Carolina held Washington to 3.1 yards
per rush after allowing an NFL-worst 182 yards rushing per game in its first
four games. Julius Peppers had two sacks last week. He should be back on
track dominating from his defensive end spot. CAROLINA 26-14.
*CLOSE CALLS
*Washington over Kansas City by 4
It might be harsh and premature to call Matt Cassel a sixty million dollar
bust. But it’s not off the mark to say the Chiefs can’t rush the passer, protect
Cassel or open holes for a broken down Larry Johnson. New Chiefs
coach Todd Haley is turning out to be just as bad as Herm Edwards. Kansas
City has lost 28 of its last 30 games.The Redskins, with their putrid offense,
aren’t capable of laying more than a field goal against a bad team.
Washington is 7-17-4 against the spread versus a losing team.The Redskins
averaged 13 points versus the Rams, Lions and Bucs.WASHINGTON 20-16.
*Pittsburgh over Cleveland by 11
Romeo Crennel’s Cleveland couldn’t beat Pittsburgh in eight tries. Eric
Mangini’s Browns won’t beat the Steelers either.The question is can they
stay within two touchdowns? Derek Anderson certainly will have to do better
than two completions. The Steelers have allowed eight touchdowns
through the air.That could change with Troy Polamalu expected back.The
Browns have lost 11 in a row in this series, covering only once during this
span. The Browns are on the road for the fourth time in five weeks.
Pittsburgh is just 1-4 against the spread this year.
PITTSBURGH 24-13.
*Jacksonville over St. Louis by 12
The Rams are heading into Lions territory having lost 16 games in a row.
This includes eight straight road defeats.The demoralized Rams could stop
giving it the old college try for new coach Steve Spagnuolo, which could
spell blowout since their talent level is far below average. The Rams are
traveling for the fourth time in six weeks.They also will be on grass, a foreign
surface for them. Jacksonville has covered just two of its last 10 home
games.Former long-time Rams wide receiver Torry Holt will be pumped for
the Jaguars, who are off the following week. JACKSONVILLE 32-20.
*New Orleans over New York Giants by 3
The Giants have covered 14 of their last 18 as a road underdog.Their offensive
and defensive lines are among the best in football. However, much is
lined up against New York in this matchup.This marks the Giants’ fourth
road game in five weeks. New Orleans was idle last week. Eli Manning is
dealing with plantar fascia. Drew Brees hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in
his last two games, but can hurt a banged-up New York secondary. The
Saints’ defense is improved under new coordinator Gregg Williams, giving
up four touchdowns in the last 13 quarters. NEW ORLEANS 24-21.
*Green Bay over Detroit by 13
Detroit is 14-3 ATS when taking 10 _ or more points.The Lions have actually
led in each of their last four games. However, the Lions have lost the
past 17 times they’ve played at Lambeau Field going 4-12-1 ATS.The Lions
have lost in their last 14 overall road contests. They could be without
Matthew Stafford (check status) and wide receiver Calvin Johnson (check
status). Green Bay should have left tackle Chad Clifton (check status) back
after being off last week. GREEN BAY 34-21.
Philadelphia over *Oakland by 17
It’s not in our nature to recommend laying double-digits on the road in the
NFL, but this one sure is tempting. Donovan McNabb sure has enough
weapons to put up a lot of points against a rudderless Raiders squad that is
averaging a puny 148 yards in their last four games. JaMarcus Russell has
absolutely no pocket presence. He’s in the argument for worst No. 1 overall
pick ever. The Eagles have covered 13 of their last 18 road contests.
Philadelphia also has covered nine of its last 12 overall. The Raiders are
missing their only offensive weapon – injured running back Darren
McFadden. PHILADELPHIA 30-13.
*New York Jets over Buffalo by 12
The situation is tough for the Jets, meeting a division foe after playing at
Miami on Monday night. But the opponent sure isn’t tough.The Bills have
been outscored, 68-20, in their last three games. Terrell Owens and Lee
Evans are wasted in the Bills’ ineffective short passing game. Buffalo’s offensive
line may be the worst in the AFC and its defense was missing five
starters last week. Even Buffalo’s special teams, long a strong point, has
been performing poorly.The Bills have lost 11 in a row to foes using a 3-4
defense. NY JETS 22-10.
*New England over Tennessee by 9
Rarely has a Jeff Fisher-coached team lacked motivation. The Titans have
been lethargic before on the road at Jacksonville. So the question needs to
be addressed.Tennessee hasn’t been able to overcome injuries in its defensive
backfield.Tom Brady could pick Tennessee’s porous secondary apart.
The Titans are on the road for a third time in four weeks and off consecutive
division matchups against Jacksonville and Indianapolis.The Titans are
6-1 ATS before their bye, which comes next week. NEW ENGLAND 28-19.
*Atlanta over Chicago by 1
The Bears have had an extra week to prepare for this matchup, which they
are treating as a big revenge game.Atlanta nipped Chicago, 22-20, last year
on a 48-yard field goal on the final play.The Bears entered their bye week
seventh in scoring and 14th in defense despite a cluster injury problem at
linebacker. Chicago is on pace for 56 sacks.The Falcons got their ground
attack going last week at San Francisco. The Falcons are 8-1 SU at home
under Mike Smith.ATLANTA 22-21.
*San Diego over Denver by 4 (Monday)
This game isn’t the mismatch it looked like at the start of the season.
Denver is much better, while San Diego has played more like a .500 club
than a Super Bowl contender. The Chargers are not nearly as physical as
they used to be. Denver is yielding an average of 8.5 points per game while
not allowing a 300-yard passing game or 100-yard rusher under new defensive
coordinator Mike Nolan. It’s no surprise the under has cashed in all of
five Denver’s games. SAN DIEGO 24-20.
OVER/UNDER
**OVER: Arizona at Seattle – The Seahawks can put up points with
Matt Hasselbeck back, while the Cards are 17-4-1 over in October.
OVER: Detroit at Green Bay – The Packers are averaging 37.5 points
in their last four games versus Detroit and have had two weeks to fix their
leaky offensive line.
OVER: St. Louis at Jacksonville – Marc Bulger is back upgrading the
Rams’ offense, while David Garrard is having his finest season for
Jacksonville.
VOL 40/7 WED. OCTOBER 21, 2009
NFL
****BEST BET
Arizona over *Seattle by 14
Arizona is traveling for the first time in four weeks.The Cardinals will be
on an off-surface for them in front of the noisiest outdoor crowd in the
NFL. It’s never easy for a visiting team to play at Qwest Field. Matt
Hasselbeck gave Seattle a huge lift at home last week against Jacksonville
returning from a painful rib injury.The Seahawks caught the Jaguars traveling
cross-country in a flat spot. Those factors won’t be in play for this
matchup. The Cardinals have a far superior passing attack. It’s one of the
best in the NFL with Kurt Warner firing to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan
Boldin, probably the No. 1 wide receiving tandem in the league.They’ll be
operating against a beat-up Seattle secondary that still is without its best
cornerback, Marcus Trufant. Seattle needs to pressure Warner. However,
Seattle’s top pass rusher, Patrick Kerney, missed last Sunday’s game with a
groin injury.The Seahawks got away with a lot of blitzes last week against
Jacksonville’s inexperienced offensive line. They won’t be able to do it,
though, against the veteran Cardinals.Warner is one of the best at picking
up extra pass rushers and has a lightning quick release. The Seahawks
remain extremely banged-up missing seven starters, including nine-time
Pro Bowl left tackle Walter Jones and two other offensive linemen – tackle
Sean Locklear and left guard Rob Sims.The Seahawks are trying to get by
with third-stringer Brandon Frye at left tackle protecting Hasselbeck’s vulnerable
blind spot.The Cards have covered nine of the last 13 in the series.
Arizona swept Seattle last year winning the two games by an average of
nearly 10 points.ARIZONA 38-24.
***BEST BET
Houston over *Cincinnati by 10
Our compliments to the Bengals on being off to their best start sine 2005
with four victories in their first five games. Cincinnati definitely is an
improved club.We’ve cashed with the Bengals several times this season as
one of our top four plays, including during each of the last two weeks during
their upset victories against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. But now is the
week to get off the Bengals following three division games in a row.The
Bengals’ average victory margin this season is four points. Three of their
wins have been by a field goal.We much prefer Cincinnati as an underdog,
not in the role of a favorite.The Bengals have failed to cover in nine of the
last 11 instances when they were asked to lay points.They haven’t been a
good October team historically either. Cincinnati is 3-14 ATS in its last 17
games during October. Houston rolled over Cincinnati last year, 35-6.The
Texans have a highly potent offense. Despite being stopped on two late
goal line stands during the past three weeks that probably would have
resulted in overtimes, the Texans still are averaging 27 points in their past
four games. Matt Schaub has a healthy set of receivers with superstar Andre
Johnson joined by Kevin Walter and dangerous tight end Owen Daniels,
who already has hauled in 25 passes for an 11.8 average per catch. Steve
Slaton is a dangerous running back.The Texans are an up-and-down team
still seeking to fulfill their goal of making the playoffs. They’ve gotten
tougher on the road, though, covering five of their last eight away games
including beating Tennessee in Week 2 when the Titans were still considered
a serious threat to win the AFC South. HOUSTON 30-20.
**PREFERRED
Baltimore over *Minnesota by 7
The record shows 5-0 for Minnesota. Brett Favre does make the Vikings better.
But he doesn’t make them good enough to beat the Ravens, a superior
team.After consecutive close losses to the Patriots and Bengals last week,
the Ravens will be highly motivated in this matchup.That makes Baltimore
a dangerous opponent.The Vikings have built their fancy record against the
Rams, Packers, 49ers, Lions and Browns. Only San Francisco has a winning
record.The other four teams are a combined 4-15.The Ravens are a physical
AFC team strong against the run and balanced on offense behind the
passing of Joe Flacco and the running of multi-purpose Ray Rice. Ray Lewis
and Co. won’t be intimidated by the loud indoor Metrodome crowd, nor
will Baltimore’s huge, physical offensive line be overrun by Vikings pass
rusher Jared Allen. Until last week, the Ravens hadn’t permitted a 100-yard
rusher in 39 straight games.The Ravens will take their frustrations out keying
on Adrian Peterson.Keep Peterson in check, which the Ravens can do,
and you defeat the Vikings. Minnesota has failed to cover 11 of the past 16
times following a victory. BALTIMORE 24-17.
Carolina over *Tampa Bay by 12
The Panthers have done well at Tampa Bay winning five of the last six times
there.That’s when the Buccaneers were decent. No longer can that word
apply to Tampa Bay.Three times already this season they have surrendered
33 or more points.Their run defense ranks among the league’s worst, making
them vulnerable to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Jake
Delhomme has thrown eight interceptions this season. But Delhomme will
be able to pick his spots.The Panthers got a big confidence boost coming
from 15 points down to beat Washington last week to salvage their season.
The Panthers can feed on that momentum.Tampa Bay has lost nine in a
row. Buccaneers first-year head coach, Raheem Morris, has been overmatched.
So has his second-year quarterback Josh Johnson, making just his
third NFL start.The Panthers have shored-up their run defense, picking up
veteran run-stuffer Hollis Thomas. Carolina held Washington to 3.1 yards
per rush after allowing an NFL-worst 182 yards rushing per game in its first
four games. Julius Peppers had two sacks last week. He should be back on
track dominating from his defensive end spot. CAROLINA 26-14.
*CLOSE CALLS
*Washington over Kansas City by 4
It might be harsh and premature to call Matt Cassel a sixty million dollar
bust. But it’s not off the mark to say the Chiefs can’t rush the passer, protect
Cassel or open holes for a broken down Larry Johnson. New Chiefs
coach Todd Haley is turning out to be just as bad as Herm Edwards. Kansas
City has lost 28 of its last 30 games.The Redskins, with their putrid offense,
aren’t capable of laying more than a field goal against a bad team.
Washington is 7-17-4 against the spread versus a losing team.The Redskins
averaged 13 points versus the Rams, Lions and Bucs.WASHINGTON 20-16.
*Pittsburgh over Cleveland by 11
Romeo Crennel’s Cleveland couldn’t beat Pittsburgh in eight tries. Eric
Mangini’s Browns won’t beat the Steelers either.The question is can they
stay within two touchdowns? Derek Anderson certainly will have to do better
than two completions. The Steelers have allowed eight touchdowns
through the air.That could change with Troy Polamalu expected back.The
Browns have lost 11 in a row in this series, covering only once during this
span. The Browns are on the road for the fourth time in five weeks.
Pittsburgh is just 1-4 against the spread this year.
PITTSBURGH 24-13.
*Jacksonville over St. Louis by 12
The Rams are heading into Lions territory having lost 16 games in a row.
This includes eight straight road defeats.The demoralized Rams could stop
giving it the old college try for new coach Steve Spagnuolo, which could
spell blowout since their talent level is far below average. The Rams are
traveling for the fourth time in six weeks.They also will be on grass, a foreign
surface for them. Jacksonville has covered just two of its last 10 home
games.Former long-time Rams wide receiver Torry Holt will be pumped for
the Jaguars, who are off the following week. JACKSONVILLE 32-20.
*New Orleans over New York Giants by 3
The Giants have covered 14 of their last 18 as a road underdog.Their offensive
and defensive lines are among the best in football. However, much is
lined up against New York in this matchup.This marks the Giants’ fourth
road game in five weeks. New Orleans was idle last week. Eli Manning is
dealing with plantar fascia. Drew Brees hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in
his last two games, but can hurt a banged-up New York secondary. The
Saints’ defense is improved under new coordinator Gregg Williams, giving
up four touchdowns in the last 13 quarters. NEW ORLEANS 24-21.
*Green Bay over Detroit by 13
Detroit is 14-3 ATS when taking 10 _ or more points.The Lions have actually
led in each of their last four games. However, the Lions have lost the
past 17 times they’ve played at Lambeau Field going 4-12-1 ATS.The Lions
have lost in their last 14 overall road contests. They could be without
Matthew Stafford (check status) and wide receiver Calvin Johnson (check
status). Green Bay should have left tackle Chad Clifton (check status) back
after being off last week. GREEN BAY 34-21.
Philadelphia over *Oakland by 17
It’s not in our nature to recommend laying double-digits on the road in the
NFL, but this one sure is tempting. Donovan McNabb sure has enough
weapons to put up a lot of points against a rudderless Raiders squad that is
averaging a puny 148 yards in their last four games. JaMarcus Russell has
absolutely no pocket presence. He’s in the argument for worst No. 1 overall
pick ever. The Eagles have covered 13 of their last 18 road contests.
Philadelphia also has covered nine of its last 12 overall. The Raiders are
missing their only offensive weapon – injured running back Darren
McFadden. PHILADELPHIA 30-13.
*New York Jets over Buffalo by 12
The situation is tough for the Jets, meeting a division foe after playing at
Miami on Monday night. But the opponent sure isn’t tough.The Bills have
been outscored, 68-20, in their last three games. Terrell Owens and Lee
Evans are wasted in the Bills’ ineffective short passing game. Buffalo’s offensive
line may be the worst in the AFC and its defense was missing five
starters last week. Even Buffalo’s special teams, long a strong point, has
been performing poorly.The Bills have lost 11 in a row to foes using a 3-4
defense. NY JETS 22-10.
*New England over Tennessee by 9
Rarely has a Jeff Fisher-coached team lacked motivation. The Titans have
been lethargic before on the road at Jacksonville. So the question needs to
be addressed.Tennessee hasn’t been able to overcome injuries in its defensive
backfield.Tom Brady could pick Tennessee’s porous secondary apart.
The Titans are on the road for a third time in four weeks and off consecutive
division matchups against Jacksonville and Indianapolis.The Titans are
6-1 ATS before their bye, which comes next week. NEW ENGLAND 28-19.
*Atlanta over Chicago by 1
The Bears have had an extra week to prepare for this matchup, which they
are treating as a big revenge game.Atlanta nipped Chicago, 22-20, last year
on a 48-yard field goal on the final play.The Bears entered their bye week
seventh in scoring and 14th in defense despite a cluster injury problem at
linebacker. Chicago is on pace for 56 sacks.The Falcons got their ground
attack going last week at San Francisco. The Falcons are 8-1 SU at home
under Mike Smith.ATLANTA 22-21.
*San Diego over Denver by 4 (Monday)
This game isn’t the mismatch it looked like at the start of the season.
Denver is much better, while San Diego has played more like a .500 club
than a Super Bowl contender. The Chargers are not nearly as physical as
they used to be. Denver is yielding an average of 8.5 points per game while
not allowing a 300-yard passing game or 100-yard rusher under new defensive
coordinator Mike Nolan. It’s no surprise the under has cashed in all of
five Denver’s games. SAN DIEGO 24-20.
OVER/UNDER
**OVER: Arizona at Seattle – The Seahawks can put up points with
Matt Hasselbeck back, while the Cards are 17-4-1 over in October.
OVER: Detroit at Green Bay – The Packers are averaging 37.5 points
in their last four games versus Detroit and have had two weeks to fix their
leaky offensive line.
OVER: St. Louis at Jacksonville – Marc Bulger is back upgrading the
Rams’ offense, while David Garrard is having his finest season for
Jacksonville.
WINNING POINTS
VOL 40/7 WED. OCTOBER 21, 2009
COLLEGE
****BEST BET
ALABAMA* over SOUTH CAROLINA by 35
If you watched Alabama dominate Ole Miss, you will have noticed the frustrations
being shown by Nick Saban on the sidelines. Those grimaces were not what one
usually expects from such a scoreboard, and that is a big part of the story line here
– despite that fact that his Crimson Tide have opened 3-0 SU and ATS in S.E.C.
play, winning by a combined 65 points, they have not played their best football.
That has to cause some nightmares for Steve Spurrier, whose team simply does not
match up well at all here, and will find out just how long 60 minutes of football
can be when you are badly overmatched. Alabama won by 19 on Saturday despite
having awful frustrations in the red zone, with six different trips in which the
offense could not produce a TD, including five that reached inside the 10-yard
line. But it was not necessarily a black eye for the Crimson Tide; instead we have
to attribute that tough Mississippi DL. Now the Gamecocks bring no such muscle
or depth up front, and given the weapons that Alabama has at the RB and WR
positions, losing the battles in the trenches means that those playmakers are difficult
to keep out of the open field. And Spurrier also can not slow the game down
by working the clock and making first downs, with his team getting those home
conference wins over Mississippi and Kentucky despite being out-rushed 344-193.
Giving the ball back to the Crimson Tide offense too quickly not only puts those
weapons in play early, but makes fatigue a big factor late. ALABAMA 44-9.
***BEST BET
WYOMING over AIR FORCE* by 5
Until Tim Jefferson can get back to full health, and while he should see action
again this week we do not fear his full explosiveness being there, this Air Force
offense is an extremely limited outfit that is going to struggle to get margins. The
Falcons will particularly have a tough time finding operating room against teams
that know their playbook well, and against tough defensive fronts that are difficult
to block. Enter Wyoming, and that veteran cast up front that has seen seniors
Mitch Unrein, Fred Givens and John Fletcher play a lot of games together, and
play them well. The Cowboys have held the opposition to 3.7 or less per rush in
each of the last three seasons, much of it a credit to that trio, and in their first two
Mountain West games they have allowed only 173 yards overland. Now those veterans
up front bring a special focus to the entire team, as they look to erase an 0-
3 collar in this series, and note that it has not been the defense that has been at
fault – when they lost 23-3 at home last year they only allowed 12 first downs and
276 yards, and two years ago on this field they held the Falcons to 20 points. The
problem has been the Cowboy offense, but with freshman QB Austyn Carta-
Samuels at the helm they have reeled off three straight games of at least 30 points,
with a good run/pass balance and a precision that has led to only two turnovers in
229 snaps. For once they may even bring the better weapons in the skill positions
in this series, which has us calling for the outright upset. WYOMING 27-22.
**PREFERRED
Vanderbilt* over Georgia by 2
Although Bobby Johnson will never be able to recruit the kind of players to
Vanderbilt that can consistently win in the S.E.C., he continues to get as much as
he can out of the roster that he does field, which makes him particularly dangerous
as an underdog in this range – the run is now 24-12 ATS taking +7 or more
since the 2003 season, when he had his full system in play. And having covered the
last three in this series, including one SU win, we can call for more of the same
here against a Georgia team that does not have the pieces to dominate in any area,
and as such is hard-pressed merely to win the game, much less break it open. The
Bulldogs did not respond well at all to that bitter loss vs. L.S.U., getting outclassed
from the start at Tennessee (if not for TD’s on kickoff and interception
returns, imagine how bad that scoreboard would have been), and in truth they look
like a tired team already, a victim of that difficult opening schedule that will now
have them playing their fourth road game already. VANDERBILT 23-21.
Virginia over Maryland* by 14
Although both of these teams have made turnarounds after dismal starts, we only
believe that one of them is for real, and that gives us Virginia in a bargain price
range. Since dumping those spread designs that did not fit the personnel, Al Groh’s
Cavaliers have beaten the pointspread by double figures in three straight games,
first out-playing Southern Miss on the road, and then after a bye week to get comfortable
in a different offensive scheme they have recorded two convincing wins.
The only TD allowed by the defense in that span came with the reserves in the field
in the fourth quarter vs. Indiana last week, and over those last two games Jameel
Sewell has confidently led an offense that has not turned the ball over in 146 snaps.
Maryland does not bring the same class of defense, or discipline with the ball (16
turnovers so far), and we remember well the 31-0 shellacking the Terrapins suffered
at Virginia last year, despite the fact that they were +2 in turnovers. When you get
the bounces but lose that badly, a statement has been made. VIRGINIA 33-19.
Mississippi* over U.A.B. by 12
Many times a team can rebound from a shattered dream early in a season because
they find another major target to shoot for, regenerating enthusiasm. The real difficulty
comes when a bubble has been burst for the second time, which is what
happened to these Rebels vs. Alabama on Saturday, and the fact that it came via
such a poor showing (212 yards of total offense, with five turnovers) has them
yawning through this week’s practices. They face an opponent that does not interest
them in any way, all the while having an S.E.C. clash vs. Arkansas on deck that
will still mean a lot to Houston Nutt. So this is a week to grind out an uninspiring
win and move on, although even getting this will not be so easy vs. a fresh
Blazer squad that will be playing for the first time in 16 days. Joe Webb can make
enough plays with his legs to move the chains and burn some clock (U.A.B. has
rushed for at least 222 yards in five of six games, with 176 in the other), which further
limits the opportunities for the host to build a margin. MISSISSIPPI 31-19.
Ohio* over Miami O. by 4
Although Frank Solich’s Bobcats enter this one unbeaten in M.A.C. play and on a
nice ATS surge, we do not see the offensive explosiveness to be able to have success
in this price range. But with the public too enamored with those scoreboards, the
line is forced into too high of a range. Note that Ohio already has TD’s on a
blocked punt, a punt return, a kickoff return and a pair of interception returns,
which is quite a haul for this early in the season, and helps to explain why that 2-
0 league record exists despite tailing by 20 first downs in the two wins. Miami is
the flip side of the same basic equation, opening 0-2 in the M.A.C. despite being
+17 first downs, with a -8 turnover differential in the two defeats, but we see signs
of the Red Hawks getting better each week, and at no point in those non-conference
losses vs. Cincinnati and Northwestern in the last two outings were they ever
pushed around. They are not overmatched athletically here anywhere near what
this pointspread is calling for. OHIO 27-23.
*CLOSE CALLS
Arkansas State over UL-Monroe* by 3 (Tuesday)
The Red Wolves gave us even more than we were asking for at Iowa last week, and
having so many veterans in the skill positions, bodes well for road success in league
play. ARKANSAS STATE 31-28.
Boise State over Tulsa* by 8 (Wednesday)
Realistically this is the only major hurdle to an unbeaten regular season for the
Broncos. But that also means an unusual pressure for a non-conference road game,
and the Golden Hurricane will attack aggressively. BOISE STATE 35-27
South Florida* over Cincinnati by 2 (Thursday)
Part of Cincinnati’s early offensive explosions are those tactics of how the Bearcats
spread the field, and with Joe Tresey, the Cincy DC the past two seasons before
being fired by Brian Kelly, now manning that same spot with the Bulls the host has
some interesting preparation advantages vs. those O’s. SO. FLORIDA 26-24.
Rutgers* over Pittsburgh by 1 (Friday)
While Pittsburgh is off of back-to-back Big East games, Rutgers has only had a
walkover vs. Texas Southern in that span. The difference in freshness is magnified
in a short week, especially with the Panthers having to travel. RUTGERS 24-23.
Texas over Oklahoma by 1 (at Dallas)
Sam Bradford looked a little rusty in his return vs. Baylor, but getting a full-game
workout should mean that he is back to full speed by the time this one kicks off.
TEXAS 31-30.
Boston College* over N. C. State by 1
The N. C. State defense has allowed 820 passing yards in the last two games. The
Eagles cannot pass. The resistible force meets the moveable object. BOSTON
COLLEGE 27-26.
Ohio State over Purdue* by 18
By returning a kickoff and a pair of interceptions for TD’s last week, the Buckeyes
managed to win while giving their offense the day off (only 40 snaps). That can
mean a level of freshness that can wear down a Boilermaker defense that has had
to deal with at least 41 rushing plays in five straight games. OHIO STATE 34-16.
Bowling Green over Ball State* by 2
For all of those numbers being put up by the Bowling Green passing attack, if you
allow at least 200 yards rushing on at least 6.0 per carry in four straight games, you
can not command anything on the road. BOWLING GREEN 31-29.
Michigan State* over Northwestern by 8
Although we fully respect that Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats have won outright in all
four trips as a Big 10 road dog the past two seasons, that +8 turnover edge the last
two weeks has helped to hide some uninspiring play. MICHIGAN STATE 31-23.
Iowa over Wisconsin* by 1
The Hawkeyes could not keep the back door closed to ruin our BEST BET hearts,
but having seen Badger QB Scott Tolzien struggle mightily in his first step-up vs.
a class defense, the visitor has a chance to gut out another close one. IOWA 24-23.
Clemson* over Wake Forest by 4
The Tigers have two weeks to build on the revenge chip that this one brings, after
they were whipped at the line of scrimmage in last year’s loss at Wake, managing
only 21 rushing yards. But despite the presence of C. J. Spiller, the ground game
is once again a weakness, so this does not come easily. CLEMSON 27-23.
Iowa State* over Baylor by 3
The Baylor psyche will be interesting to watch after getting pushed around by
much worse than the score at Oklahoma – will they bring any confidence on the
conference road without Robert Griffin to create hope? IOWA STATE 30-27.
Auburn* over Kentucky by 14
If the Kentucky secondary remains hobbled, Auburn’s balanced spread attack has
all sorts of areas to attack. AUBURN 30-16.
Temple* over Army by 15
The Owls lack the explosiveness to be trusted as chalk in this role, and there will
not be much tempo, but the way that their defensive front is playing they have the
tools to stop the Army offense cold. TEMPLE 27-12.
Central Michigan over Western Michigan* by 4
The Broncos were neither as bad as the scoreboard showed at Northern Illinois,
nor as good as it showed vs. Toledo. Dan LeFevour and the Chippewas rang up 38
points and 524 yards last year. C.M.U. 35-31.
Nevada over Utah State* by 9
The Wolfpack had a tough time getting the offense cranked up when stepping up
in class vs. non-conference competition, but 804 rushing yards in the first two
W.A.C. games is a sign of what defenses in this league have to cope with the rest
of the way. NEVADA 37-28.
Penn State* over Minnesota by 17
Getting a breather against the likes of Eastern Illinois at the midway point in the
season may do wonders for a team’s energy. Which is why Joe scheduled it, of
course. PENN STATE 33-16.
West Virginia* over Marshall by 14
This in-state rivalry means much more to the underdog, especially with the
Mountaineers having key Big East affairs vs. Connecticut and South Florida immediately
on deck. WEST VIRGINIA 30-16.
Southern Cal over Notre Dame* by 16
The strength of Notre Dame is Jimmy Clausen’s arm in a pro-style passing game
that can attack down the field. But while that has worked vs. some soft defenses so
far, the Trojan defense has the athletes to relish that challenge. U.S.C. 33-17.
California over U.C.L.A.* by 5
At another time we would play a team with Cal’s pre-season rating to rebound well
off of a bye week. But that rating was bogus, and can an offense that has not scored
a TD since September 19th find a passing game to create some needed balance?
CALIFORNIA 24-19.
Houston over Tulane* by 18
Houston showed a lot of moxie in the second half at Starkville last week, and while
it could be a rare case of now having a letdown despite going back into conference
play, note that the Cougars dominated Tulane to a 42-14 tune despite being -3 in
turnovers last year. That is how wide the talent gap is. HOUSTON 41-23.
Nebraska* over Texas Tech by 8
Bo Pelini gets a chance to tweak his tactics to take advantage of the lack of experience
the Red Raiders bring at QB this week, regardless of who is atop the depth
chart. NEBRASKA 35-27.
Texas A&M over Kansas State* by 3
Both programs are far short in the talent needed to compete against the Big 12’s
upper echelon, but they will go hard in a rare chance to score a league win. This
one goes to the Aggies because of superior playmakers in the skill positions.
TEXAS A&M 30-27.
Virginia Tech over Georgia Tech* by 1
Yellow Jackets led 387-247 in Blacksburg last year, and were also +3 in turnovers,
but lost the game 20-17. That can happen against Frank Beamer, who has the athletes
to give this attack tough sledding. VIRGINIA TECH 24-23.
Oklahoma State* over Missouri by 7
The Cowboys should finally get Kendall Hunter back on the field this week to balance
out the offense, but since that surprisingly staunch effort vs. Georgia in the
opener, it is the same old defense once again. OKLAHOMA STATE 34-27.
East Carolina* over Rice by 18
The pointspread should be measuring all of the Rice issues by now, which means
that we can focus on the other side, with the Pirates 1-5 ATS laying -7 or more the
last two seasons, and in an awkward run that has six SU losses as favorites since the
middle of the 2007 schedule. EAST CAROLINA 38-20.
Buffalo* over Akron by 13
Bulls are getting much better play at QB these days than the Zips, and after getting
some of their confidence back in what was mostly a scrimmage last week, they
also bring a much better mindset to this one. BUFFALO 34-21.
T.C.U.* over Colorado State by 21
Gary Patterson does not like sloppy football, which off of that -3 turnover night at
Air Force means cracking the whip rather than coasting this week. Note that the
Horned Frogs have yet to win the turnover battle in a game this season, which is
likely to turn. T.C.U. 34-13.
Louisiana Tech* over New Mexico State by 13
DeWayne Walker is having some quick success with his Aggies by slowing games
to a crawl, and hoping to keep it close until the latter stages. The Bulldog passing
game is not capable of establishing much separation either on the field, or on the
scoreboard. LOUISIANA TECH 29-16.
Eastern Michigan* over Kent State by 1
When QB is so bad for both teams, the last thing we are supposed to do is try to
make a case in which someone must win to get a cover. Games like this are more
often lost by someone giving it away. EASTERN MICHIGAN 25-24.
Idaho* over Hawaii by 14
In case you have not been counting, a win here guarantees the Vandals no worse
than a .500 season. Robb Akey does not need to win many more to get our Coach
of the Year vote. IDAHO 37-23.
Brigham Young over San Diego State* by 22
The Cougars were not pushed at all by U.N.L.V. last week, which means that they
can treat this one seriously as a major tune-up before T.C.U. comes to town next
week. B.Y.U. 41-19.
Arizona* over Stanford by 6
In two games against this class of competition, the Cardinal defense allowed 458
yards at Wake Forest and 463 at Oregon State, without forcing a turnover either
time. Now that Arizona appears to genuinely have a QB this may be more of the
same. ARIZONA 33-27.
Indiana* over Illinois by 3
A weak vote for Indiana to bounce back better from the disasters that each of these
teams suffered last week, largely because the Hoosiers had such lower expectations
this season, and can still turn this into a positive campaign. INDIANA 30-27.
Southern Miss* over Memphis by 14
Martevious Young was fine in his first game back in the role of starting QB for the
Golden Eagles, and as the weeks go by he should only get better. The Tiger attitude
will unlikely have such a positive progression. SOUTHERN MISS 33-19.
Northern Illinois over Toledo* by 4
Having been toughened by those trips to Wisconsin and Purdue, and with a sound
offensive scheme that has only turned the ball over four times, the Huskies are built
well for road success in M.A.C. play. NORTHERN ILLINOIS 31-27.
Connecticut* over Louisville by 8
The Huskies have to find a way to re-focus from the bitter pill of seeing that 21-6
second-half lead get away at Pittsburgh, and for once it was the defense that was
the culprit, allowing 489 yards and running out of gas. CONNECTICUT 27-19.
Kansas over Colorado* by 11
The Colorado defense has left far too many open receivers running free this season,
and Todd Reesing rarely misses when those opportunities are presented. But
the Kansas defense will not control many opponents on the road. KANSAS 38-27.
Miami F. over Central Florida* by 14
Miami got the buffer win that it needed vs. Florida A&M to come down off of the
Oklahoma high, and that negates the chances of coming out flat against a hungrier
in-state foe. Note that the Golden Knights managed only 78 yards in last year’s
20-14 loss, with the offensive not producing either TD. MIAMI F. 30-16.
Florida* over Arkansas by 19
For as accurate as Ryan Mallett can be down the field, time is needed for those patterns
to develop, and the Florida defensive front allows precious little of that.
FLORIDA 35-16.
Navy over S.M.U.* by 10
The Midshipmen dealt these Mustangs a humiliation in last year’s 34-7 rout at
Annapolis, not attempting a single pass in 77 offensive snaps. But do teams of the
S.M.U. class level really feel that sting? NAVY 34-24.
Arizona State* over Washington by 4
Jake Locker is the playmaker that Dennis Erickson covets. The Sun Devils have the
defensive athleticism depth that Steve Sarkisian has to go out and start recruiting.
ARIZONA STATE 27-23.
Utah over U.N.L.V.* by 20
We see no reason for Mike Sanford to still be the U.N.L.V. coach by the time that
this game kicks off, and given the lack of effort in recent weeks the administration
might want to prevent the situation from deteriorating even further. UTAH 41-21.
Fresno State* over San Jose State by 19
The Bulldogs won by 14 on the scoreboard, and held the Spartans to -5 yards rushing
last year when their defensive front was severely depleted by injuries. Now Dick
Tomey has a bigger gap to have to close. FRESNO STATE 35-16.
UL-Lafayette over Western Kentucky* by 4
The Cajuns got TD’s from the defense and special teams to escape while being outplayed
vs. North Texas last week, which does not bode well for their chances to get
anything easily in a road chalk role, even at the easiest place for a visitor to win a
game at this level. U.L.L. 28-24.
Troy over Florida International* by 12
The way that the Trojans were able to establish a ground game vs. Middle
Tennessee spells bad news for a Panther defensive front that is not getting any push
at all. TROY 33-21.
Florida Atlantic over North Texas* by 1
With a week off to literally re-start their season, do the Owls show that they benefitted
from that tough early schedule, or does the 0-4 collar bruise the psyche? Not
an easy projection at this level of play. F.A.U. 31-30.
Mississippi State over Middle Tennessee State* by 8
We do not believe that Dan Mullen is going to pass up any opportunities to grab
a “W” this season, and Dwight Dasher is not accurate enough to challenge an
S.E.C. defense through the air. MISSISSIPPI STATE 31-23.
Tulsa over U.T.E.P.* by 7 (Wednesday)
Note that Tulsa routed this defense to the tune of 77 points and 791 yards last year
with only a kickoff return for a TD likely keeping their offense from going over
800. TULSA 38-31.
VOL 40/7 WED. OCTOBER 21, 2009
COLLEGE
****BEST BET
ALABAMA* over SOUTH CAROLINA by 35
If you watched Alabama dominate Ole Miss, you will have noticed the frustrations
being shown by Nick Saban on the sidelines. Those grimaces were not what one
usually expects from such a scoreboard, and that is a big part of the story line here
– despite that fact that his Crimson Tide have opened 3-0 SU and ATS in S.E.C.
play, winning by a combined 65 points, they have not played their best football.
That has to cause some nightmares for Steve Spurrier, whose team simply does not
match up well at all here, and will find out just how long 60 minutes of football
can be when you are badly overmatched. Alabama won by 19 on Saturday despite
having awful frustrations in the red zone, with six different trips in which the
offense could not produce a TD, including five that reached inside the 10-yard
line. But it was not necessarily a black eye for the Crimson Tide; instead we have
to attribute that tough Mississippi DL. Now the Gamecocks bring no such muscle
or depth up front, and given the weapons that Alabama has at the RB and WR
positions, losing the battles in the trenches means that those playmakers are difficult
to keep out of the open field. And Spurrier also can not slow the game down
by working the clock and making first downs, with his team getting those home
conference wins over Mississippi and Kentucky despite being out-rushed 344-193.
Giving the ball back to the Crimson Tide offense too quickly not only puts those
weapons in play early, but makes fatigue a big factor late. ALABAMA 44-9.
***BEST BET
WYOMING over AIR FORCE* by 5
Until Tim Jefferson can get back to full health, and while he should see action
again this week we do not fear his full explosiveness being there, this Air Force
offense is an extremely limited outfit that is going to struggle to get margins. The
Falcons will particularly have a tough time finding operating room against teams
that know their playbook well, and against tough defensive fronts that are difficult
to block. Enter Wyoming, and that veteran cast up front that has seen seniors
Mitch Unrein, Fred Givens and John Fletcher play a lot of games together, and
play them well. The Cowboys have held the opposition to 3.7 or less per rush in
each of the last three seasons, much of it a credit to that trio, and in their first two
Mountain West games they have allowed only 173 yards overland. Now those veterans
up front bring a special focus to the entire team, as they look to erase an 0-
3 collar in this series, and note that it has not been the defense that has been at
fault – when they lost 23-3 at home last year they only allowed 12 first downs and
276 yards, and two years ago on this field they held the Falcons to 20 points. The
problem has been the Cowboy offense, but with freshman QB Austyn Carta-
Samuels at the helm they have reeled off three straight games of at least 30 points,
with a good run/pass balance and a precision that has led to only two turnovers in
229 snaps. For once they may even bring the better weapons in the skill positions
in this series, which has us calling for the outright upset. WYOMING 27-22.
**PREFERRED
Vanderbilt* over Georgia by 2
Although Bobby Johnson will never be able to recruit the kind of players to
Vanderbilt that can consistently win in the S.E.C., he continues to get as much as
he can out of the roster that he does field, which makes him particularly dangerous
as an underdog in this range – the run is now 24-12 ATS taking +7 or more
since the 2003 season, when he had his full system in play. And having covered the
last three in this series, including one SU win, we can call for more of the same
here against a Georgia team that does not have the pieces to dominate in any area,
and as such is hard-pressed merely to win the game, much less break it open. The
Bulldogs did not respond well at all to that bitter loss vs. L.S.U., getting outclassed
from the start at Tennessee (if not for TD’s on kickoff and interception
returns, imagine how bad that scoreboard would have been), and in truth they look
like a tired team already, a victim of that difficult opening schedule that will now
have them playing their fourth road game already. VANDERBILT 23-21.
Virginia over Maryland* by 14
Although both of these teams have made turnarounds after dismal starts, we only
believe that one of them is for real, and that gives us Virginia in a bargain price
range. Since dumping those spread designs that did not fit the personnel, Al Groh’s
Cavaliers have beaten the pointspread by double figures in three straight games,
first out-playing Southern Miss on the road, and then after a bye week to get comfortable
in a different offensive scheme they have recorded two convincing wins.
The only TD allowed by the defense in that span came with the reserves in the field
in the fourth quarter vs. Indiana last week, and over those last two games Jameel
Sewell has confidently led an offense that has not turned the ball over in 146 snaps.
Maryland does not bring the same class of defense, or discipline with the ball (16
turnovers so far), and we remember well the 31-0 shellacking the Terrapins suffered
at Virginia last year, despite the fact that they were +2 in turnovers. When you get
the bounces but lose that badly, a statement has been made. VIRGINIA 33-19.
Mississippi* over U.A.B. by 12
Many times a team can rebound from a shattered dream early in a season because
they find another major target to shoot for, regenerating enthusiasm. The real difficulty
comes when a bubble has been burst for the second time, which is what
happened to these Rebels vs. Alabama on Saturday, and the fact that it came via
such a poor showing (212 yards of total offense, with five turnovers) has them
yawning through this week’s practices. They face an opponent that does not interest
them in any way, all the while having an S.E.C. clash vs. Arkansas on deck that
will still mean a lot to Houston Nutt. So this is a week to grind out an uninspiring
win and move on, although even getting this will not be so easy vs. a fresh
Blazer squad that will be playing for the first time in 16 days. Joe Webb can make
enough plays with his legs to move the chains and burn some clock (U.A.B. has
rushed for at least 222 yards in five of six games, with 176 in the other), which further
limits the opportunities for the host to build a margin. MISSISSIPPI 31-19.
Ohio* over Miami O. by 4
Although Frank Solich’s Bobcats enter this one unbeaten in M.A.C. play and on a
nice ATS surge, we do not see the offensive explosiveness to be able to have success
in this price range. But with the public too enamored with those scoreboards, the
line is forced into too high of a range. Note that Ohio already has TD’s on a
blocked punt, a punt return, a kickoff return and a pair of interception returns,
which is quite a haul for this early in the season, and helps to explain why that 2-
0 league record exists despite tailing by 20 first downs in the two wins. Miami is
the flip side of the same basic equation, opening 0-2 in the M.A.C. despite being
+17 first downs, with a -8 turnover differential in the two defeats, but we see signs
of the Red Hawks getting better each week, and at no point in those non-conference
losses vs. Cincinnati and Northwestern in the last two outings were they ever
pushed around. They are not overmatched athletically here anywhere near what
this pointspread is calling for. OHIO 27-23.
*CLOSE CALLS
Arkansas State over UL-Monroe* by 3 (Tuesday)
The Red Wolves gave us even more than we were asking for at Iowa last week, and
having so many veterans in the skill positions, bodes well for road success in league
play. ARKANSAS STATE 31-28.
Boise State over Tulsa* by 8 (Wednesday)
Realistically this is the only major hurdle to an unbeaten regular season for the
Broncos. But that also means an unusual pressure for a non-conference road game,
and the Golden Hurricane will attack aggressively. BOISE STATE 35-27
South Florida* over Cincinnati by 2 (Thursday)
Part of Cincinnati’s early offensive explosions are those tactics of how the Bearcats
spread the field, and with Joe Tresey, the Cincy DC the past two seasons before
being fired by Brian Kelly, now manning that same spot with the Bulls the host has
some interesting preparation advantages vs. those O’s. SO. FLORIDA 26-24.
Rutgers* over Pittsburgh by 1 (Friday)
While Pittsburgh is off of back-to-back Big East games, Rutgers has only had a
walkover vs. Texas Southern in that span. The difference in freshness is magnified
in a short week, especially with the Panthers having to travel. RUTGERS 24-23.
Texas over Oklahoma by 1 (at Dallas)
Sam Bradford looked a little rusty in his return vs. Baylor, but getting a full-game
workout should mean that he is back to full speed by the time this one kicks off.
TEXAS 31-30.
Boston College* over N. C. State by 1
The N. C. State defense has allowed 820 passing yards in the last two games. The
Eagles cannot pass. The resistible force meets the moveable object. BOSTON
COLLEGE 27-26.
Ohio State over Purdue* by 18
By returning a kickoff and a pair of interceptions for TD’s last week, the Buckeyes
managed to win while giving their offense the day off (only 40 snaps). That can
mean a level of freshness that can wear down a Boilermaker defense that has had
to deal with at least 41 rushing plays in five straight games. OHIO STATE 34-16.
Bowling Green over Ball State* by 2
For all of those numbers being put up by the Bowling Green passing attack, if you
allow at least 200 yards rushing on at least 6.0 per carry in four straight games, you
can not command anything on the road. BOWLING GREEN 31-29.
Michigan State* over Northwestern by 8
Although we fully respect that Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats have won outright in all
four trips as a Big 10 road dog the past two seasons, that +8 turnover edge the last
two weeks has helped to hide some uninspiring play. MICHIGAN STATE 31-23.
Iowa over Wisconsin* by 1
The Hawkeyes could not keep the back door closed to ruin our BEST BET hearts,
but having seen Badger QB Scott Tolzien struggle mightily in his first step-up vs.
a class defense, the visitor has a chance to gut out another close one. IOWA 24-23.
Clemson* over Wake Forest by 4
The Tigers have two weeks to build on the revenge chip that this one brings, after
they were whipped at the line of scrimmage in last year’s loss at Wake, managing
only 21 rushing yards. But despite the presence of C. J. Spiller, the ground game
is once again a weakness, so this does not come easily. CLEMSON 27-23.
Iowa State* over Baylor by 3
The Baylor psyche will be interesting to watch after getting pushed around by
much worse than the score at Oklahoma – will they bring any confidence on the
conference road without Robert Griffin to create hope? IOWA STATE 30-27.
Auburn* over Kentucky by 14
If the Kentucky secondary remains hobbled, Auburn’s balanced spread attack has
all sorts of areas to attack. AUBURN 30-16.
Temple* over Army by 15
The Owls lack the explosiveness to be trusted as chalk in this role, and there will
not be much tempo, but the way that their defensive front is playing they have the
tools to stop the Army offense cold. TEMPLE 27-12.
Central Michigan over Western Michigan* by 4
The Broncos were neither as bad as the scoreboard showed at Northern Illinois,
nor as good as it showed vs. Toledo. Dan LeFevour and the Chippewas rang up 38
points and 524 yards last year. C.M.U. 35-31.
Nevada over Utah State* by 9
The Wolfpack had a tough time getting the offense cranked up when stepping up
in class vs. non-conference competition, but 804 rushing yards in the first two
W.A.C. games is a sign of what defenses in this league have to cope with the rest
of the way. NEVADA 37-28.
Penn State* over Minnesota by 17
Getting a breather against the likes of Eastern Illinois at the midway point in the
season may do wonders for a team’s energy. Which is why Joe scheduled it, of
course. PENN STATE 33-16.
West Virginia* over Marshall by 14
This in-state rivalry means much more to the underdog, especially with the
Mountaineers having key Big East affairs vs. Connecticut and South Florida immediately
on deck. WEST VIRGINIA 30-16.
Southern Cal over Notre Dame* by 16
The strength of Notre Dame is Jimmy Clausen’s arm in a pro-style passing game
that can attack down the field. But while that has worked vs. some soft defenses so
far, the Trojan defense has the athletes to relish that challenge. U.S.C. 33-17.
California over U.C.L.A.* by 5
At another time we would play a team with Cal’s pre-season rating to rebound well
off of a bye week. But that rating was bogus, and can an offense that has not scored
a TD since September 19th find a passing game to create some needed balance?
CALIFORNIA 24-19.
Houston over Tulane* by 18
Houston showed a lot of moxie in the second half at Starkville last week, and while
it could be a rare case of now having a letdown despite going back into conference
play, note that the Cougars dominated Tulane to a 42-14 tune despite being -3 in
turnovers last year. That is how wide the talent gap is. HOUSTON 41-23.
Nebraska* over Texas Tech by 8
Bo Pelini gets a chance to tweak his tactics to take advantage of the lack of experience
the Red Raiders bring at QB this week, regardless of who is atop the depth
chart. NEBRASKA 35-27.
Texas A&M over Kansas State* by 3
Both programs are far short in the talent needed to compete against the Big 12’s
upper echelon, but they will go hard in a rare chance to score a league win. This
one goes to the Aggies because of superior playmakers in the skill positions.
TEXAS A&M 30-27.
Virginia Tech over Georgia Tech* by 1
Yellow Jackets led 387-247 in Blacksburg last year, and were also +3 in turnovers,
but lost the game 20-17. That can happen against Frank Beamer, who has the athletes
to give this attack tough sledding. VIRGINIA TECH 24-23.
Oklahoma State* over Missouri by 7
The Cowboys should finally get Kendall Hunter back on the field this week to balance
out the offense, but since that surprisingly staunch effort vs. Georgia in the
opener, it is the same old defense once again. OKLAHOMA STATE 34-27.
East Carolina* over Rice by 18
The pointspread should be measuring all of the Rice issues by now, which means
that we can focus on the other side, with the Pirates 1-5 ATS laying -7 or more the
last two seasons, and in an awkward run that has six SU losses as favorites since the
middle of the 2007 schedule. EAST CAROLINA 38-20.
Buffalo* over Akron by 13
Bulls are getting much better play at QB these days than the Zips, and after getting
some of their confidence back in what was mostly a scrimmage last week, they
also bring a much better mindset to this one. BUFFALO 34-21.
T.C.U.* over Colorado State by 21
Gary Patterson does not like sloppy football, which off of that -3 turnover night at
Air Force means cracking the whip rather than coasting this week. Note that the
Horned Frogs have yet to win the turnover battle in a game this season, which is
likely to turn. T.C.U. 34-13.
Louisiana Tech* over New Mexico State by 13
DeWayne Walker is having some quick success with his Aggies by slowing games
to a crawl, and hoping to keep it close until the latter stages. The Bulldog passing
game is not capable of establishing much separation either on the field, or on the
scoreboard. LOUISIANA TECH 29-16.
Eastern Michigan* over Kent State by 1
When QB is so bad for both teams, the last thing we are supposed to do is try to
make a case in which someone must win to get a cover. Games like this are more
often lost by someone giving it away. EASTERN MICHIGAN 25-24.
Idaho* over Hawaii by 14
In case you have not been counting, a win here guarantees the Vandals no worse
than a .500 season. Robb Akey does not need to win many more to get our Coach
of the Year vote. IDAHO 37-23.
Brigham Young over San Diego State* by 22
The Cougars were not pushed at all by U.N.L.V. last week, which means that they
can treat this one seriously as a major tune-up before T.C.U. comes to town next
week. B.Y.U. 41-19.
Arizona* over Stanford by 6
In two games against this class of competition, the Cardinal defense allowed 458
yards at Wake Forest and 463 at Oregon State, without forcing a turnover either
time. Now that Arizona appears to genuinely have a QB this may be more of the
same. ARIZONA 33-27.
Indiana* over Illinois by 3
A weak vote for Indiana to bounce back better from the disasters that each of these
teams suffered last week, largely because the Hoosiers had such lower expectations
this season, and can still turn this into a positive campaign. INDIANA 30-27.
Southern Miss* over Memphis by 14
Martevious Young was fine in his first game back in the role of starting QB for the
Golden Eagles, and as the weeks go by he should only get better. The Tiger attitude
will unlikely have such a positive progression. SOUTHERN MISS 33-19.
Northern Illinois over Toledo* by 4
Having been toughened by those trips to Wisconsin and Purdue, and with a sound
offensive scheme that has only turned the ball over four times, the Huskies are built
well for road success in M.A.C. play. NORTHERN ILLINOIS 31-27.
Connecticut* over Louisville by 8
The Huskies have to find a way to re-focus from the bitter pill of seeing that 21-6
second-half lead get away at Pittsburgh, and for once it was the defense that was
the culprit, allowing 489 yards and running out of gas. CONNECTICUT 27-19.
Kansas over Colorado* by 11
The Colorado defense has left far too many open receivers running free this season,
and Todd Reesing rarely misses when those opportunities are presented. But
the Kansas defense will not control many opponents on the road. KANSAS 38-27.
Miami F. over Central Florida* by 14
Miami got the buffer win that it needed vs. Florida A&M to come down off of the
Oklahoma high, and that negates the chances of coming out flat against a hungrier
in-state foe. Note that the Golden Knights managed only 78 yards in last year’s
20-14 loss, with the offensive not producing either TD. MIAMI F. 30-16.
Florida* over Arkansas by 19
For as accurate as Ryan Mallett can be down the field, time is needed for those patterns
to develop, and the Florida defensive front allows precious little of that.
FLORIDA 35-16.
Navy over S.M.U.* by 10
The Midshipmen dealt these Mustangs a humiliation in last year’s 34-7 rout at
Annapolis, not attempting a single pass in 77 offensive snaps. But do teams of the
S.M.U. class level really feel that sting? NAVY 34-24.
Arizona State* over Washington by 4
Jake Locker is the playmaker that Dennis Erickson covets. The Sun Devils have the
defensive athleticism depth that Steve Sarkisian has to go out and start recruiting.
ARIZONA STATE 27-23.
Utah over U.N.L.V.* by 20
We see no reason for Mike Sanford to still be the U.N.L.V. coach by the time that
this game kicks off, and given the lack of effort in recent weeks the administration
might want to prevent the situation from deteriorating even further. UTAH 41-21.
Fresno State* over San Jose State by 19
The Bulldogs won by 14 on the scoreboard, and held the Spartans to -5 yards rushing
last year when their defensive front was severely depleted by injuries. Now Dick
Tomey has a bigger gap to have to close. FRESNO STATE 35-16.
UL-Lafayette over Western Kentucky* by 4
The Cajuns got TD’s from the defense and special teams to escape while being outplayed
vs. North Texas last week, which does not bode well for their chances to get
anything easily in a road chalk role, even at the easiest place for a visitor to win a
game at this level. U.L.L. 28-24.
Troy over Florida International* by 12
The way that the Trojans were able to establish a ground game vs. Middle
Tennessee spells bad news for a Panther defensive front that is not getting any push
at all. TROY 33-21.
Florida Atlantic over North Texas* by 1
With a week off to literally re-start their season, do the Owls show that they benefitted
from that tough early schedule, or does the 0-4 collar bruise the psyche? Not
an easy projection at this level of play. F.A.U. 31-30.
Mississippi State over Middle Tennessee State* by 8
We do not believe that Dan Mullen is going to pass up any opportunities to grab
a “W” this season, and Dwight Dasher is not accurate enough to challenge an
S.E.C. defense through the air. MISSISSIPPI STATE 31-23.
Tulsa over U.T.E.P.* by 7 (Wednesday)
Note that Tulsa routed this defense to the tune of 77 points and 791 yards last year
with only a kickoff return for a TD likely keeping their offense from going over
800. TULSA 38-31.
POINTWISE COLLEGIATE
FOOTBALL PROPHECY
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
FRESNO STATE over San Jose State RATING: 1
SO CALIFORNIA over Notre Dame RATING: 1
ALABAMA over South Carolina RATING: 2
AIR FORCE over Wyoming RATING: 3
PENN STATE over Minnesota RATING: 4
LA TECH over New Mexico State RATING: 4
TEXAS A&M over Kansas State RATING: 5
WAKE FOREST over Clemson RATING: 5
WEDNESDAY
Boise State 38 - TULSA 30 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Don't like this one. Broncos seem
invincible, behind QB Moore (12/2), & a defense which ranks 14th in scoring. Are
+88½ pts ATS away in '08 & '09, to boot. But 'Canes have scored 56, 56, 63, 77,
49, 56 pts in their last 6 lined HGs, & QB Kinne is one of the better signalcallers.
THURSDAY
Cincinnati 22 - SOUTH FLORIDA 20 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Pair of perfect squads
here. First lined HG for Bulls, who have played superbly, following the loss of QB
Grothe. Have been killed by the TO in series (Wise Points), & with Cincy in off 10
sack showing, can't afford repeat. 'Cat QB Pike at 67% (13/3), & Cincy "D solid.
FRIDAY
Pittsburgh 33 - RUTGERS 24 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Pitt LW: largest comeback win
in Wannstedt's 5 seasons. Down 15, with 0:12 left in 3rd, winning on final play vs
UConn. Panthers nicely balanced (Lewis: 158 RYs LW), led by QB Stull. RU QB
Savage is back, but check just 139 RYpg in lined gms for Knights. Guest series.
SATURDAY
Oklahoma 34 - Texas 31 - (12:00 - ABC - @ Dallas) -- Can anyone explain just
46 RYs for 'Horns vs Colo's 101st run "D"? Anyway, McCoy still brilliant (70%
for the yr): 32-of-39 LW. Bradford back for Okies (27-of-47 with 6 drops vs
Baylor) & Sooners have 7th best run "D" in land. A quadruple OU revenge call.
North Carolina State 24 - BOSTON COLLEGE 22 - (3:30) -- We steer clear of
this one. Just 10 FDs (none in 1st half) & 45 RYs for Eagles at VaTech. Own
93rd rated "O". 'Pack in off 49-28 loss to Duke (Imps' 1st ACC road win in 21
games), but has allowed only 56 RYpg last 3 wks, & at 28 ppg last 9 ACC tilts.
Ohio State 33 - PURDUE 15 - (12:00) -- No, the stats of LW's OhioSt/Wisky gm
not a misprint. Completely dominated by Badgers (8 FDs), only to score 3 TDs
off 2 INTs & a KO return. Still a 799-231 RY edge last 4 outings. Boilers off 5
wrenching losses (120-yd edge LW). Can't run, but QB Elliott: 612 PYs last 2.
Bowling Green 36 - BALL STATE 24 - (12:00) -- Six straight losses for BallSt.
Can't run, nor contain the run. BG can't take advantage, with its 931-230 RY
deficit last 4 wks, but note QB Sheehan off school-record 44-of-63 for 505 yds.
MICHIGAN STATE 33 - Northwestern 30 - (12:00 - ESPN2) -- Nice balance for
Spartans last 2 wks: 195 RYpg, 200 PYpg (21st ranked "O"). 'Cats, as usual,
not about to be trusted in fav role, needing 4 takeaways to get by hapless (0-6)
Miami-Ohio. No running, but QB Kafka at 69%, & dog is 24-8 ATS in NW tilts.
WISCONSIN 31 - Iowa 27 - (12:00) -- Oh, what a horrible setback for Badgers
LW: 42:47-17:13 time, 22-8 FD, & 368-184 TY edges, but 31-13 loss. Surely
move it behind Tolzien & Clay, & if not completely deflated, revenge here is far
from impossible. Iowa has won 10 straight, but yet to reach 200 RYs. Upset.
Virginia 30 - MARYLAND 20 - (4:00) -- Cavs in off largest output in 5 yrs: 536
yds, after entering at just 272 ypg. And check a 2.3 ypr "D" last 2 wks. Terps
trailed Wake 42-17 in 4th, but somehow covered. Ceding 35.1 ppg last 8 LGs.
Wake Forest 27 - CLEMSON 22 - (12:00) -- Just 2 offensive TDs for Tigers in
their last 3 games, ranking lowly 102nd in total "O". Check mere 81 RYs in loss
to MD (missed 2 late FGs). Deacon QB Skinner: 360 PYs & career-best 4 TD
passes vs Terps (TDs in first 5 possessions). Dog 26-16 ATS in Wake games.
IOWA STATE 34 - Baylor 24 - (7:00) -- Just 6 RYs for Bears, without Griffin,
altho his replacement (Florence) was decent (220 PYs). Cycs allowing 35 ppg
in last 14 LGs, but slowly becoming an overland force (219 RYs vs Kansas' #3
rushing "D") topping 200 RYs 5-of-6 gms thus far (Robinson: 652 yds). Cycs.
MISSISSIPPI 38 - Uab 10 - (7:00) -- Reb fall continues. Snead: 7 INTs last 2 wks
& just 46-of-102 last 3 games, with McCuster a non-factor. Chance to finally
do something, despite Uabs' upset of SoMiss (222-111 RY edge & 23-pt cover).
Georgia 19 - VANDERBILT 16 - (12:20) -- Talk about sinking. No "O" TDs for
'Dawgs in 45-19 loss at Tenn, 12 FDpg last 2 wks, & <100 RYs in 4 of last 6
outings. Vandy's only TD at Army via a KO return, fumbling at Cadet 1 in OT of
that loss. But decent "D": 16 ppg. With Florida up next for Georgia, 'Dore call.
AUBURN 33 - Kentucky 27 - (7:30) -- Three straight losses for 'Cats in current
suicide run, but note just a 52-yd combined deficit vs Alabama & SoCaro, & no
TOs vs 'Cocks, after 9 the previous 3 games. Tigs off 1st loss (trailed 34-3),
allowing 28 FDs & 495 yds. But another 184 RYs for Tate. Cats keep it under.
TEMPLE 24 - Army 20 - (1:00) -- Owls used big play for LY's caker vs Cadets, &
this may be another tester, despite TU with a 546-202 RY edge in MAC. Pierce:
421 RYs, 5 TDs last 3 gms. Army can't throw but at 230 RYpg. Dog call here.
Central Michigan 45 - WESTERN MICHIGAN 31 - (3:30) -- No punts for CM in
rout of EMich (LeFevour: 6 TDs), & Chips 48+ pts 3 of last 4. WM from 32-pt
ATS setback, to 31-pt cover in a week, & Hiller now at 87 career TD passes.
AIR FORCE 41 - Wyoming 17 - (2:00) -- Three straight wins for 'Pokes, behind
QB Samuels & RB Alexander, but vs foes with combined 2-14 log. Falcs nailed
cover in final 0:57 LW, & at just 13 FDpg last 3 tilts. Chance to explode. Do so.
OHIO U 38 - Miami-Ohio 20 - (2:00) -- First lined HG for OU since opener. At 33
ppg last 7 LGs, & on 4-1 SU run. Overland dominance LY (Wise Points), &
could repeat. 'Hawk Dysert sacked 17 times, with 5 INTs last 2 wks. Near line.
Nevada 41 - UTAH STATE 24 - (3:00) -- Love the 'Pack. Try 100 pts, 1,234 yds,
& a 904-197 RY edge the past 2 wks, behind the splendid Kaepernick. Ags are
5-0 ATS home LA, by 20.7 ppg, & Turbin at 7.2 ypr for the yr. But Nevada call.
PENN STATE 44 - Minnesota 20 - (3:30) -- Gophs took Purdue by 15, despite
23-14 FD & 402-281 yd deficits. Three TDs off critical Boiler mistakes. We
know that the visitor has covered both BigTen games involving PSt (by 31½
pts), but Lions warming up now, with a 623-189 RY edge since losing to Iowa.
WEST VIRGINIA 31 - Marshall 17 - (3:30) -- Just 3.2 ypr for WV vs Syracuse (1
TD over final 2½ quarters). Devine at 631 RYs, & Herd off 189-116 RY deficit
at Tulane (4 takeaways in 31-10 win). But check RB Marshall at 737 yds TY.
ALABAMA 38 - South Carolina 10 - (3:30) -- What a defense! Allowed just 19
yds & 1 FD in 1st half of 22-3 stomping of OleMiss (418-159 pt edge last 13
tilts). And try 223 RYpg, 221 PYpg on offense. Best start for Spurrier at SC
(5-1), but just a 1-yd edge over KY, needing to stop 2-pt try in final 4:34. Tide!
So California 45 - NOTRE DAME 16 - (3:30 - NBC) -- Clausen off career-best
422 PYs in win over Washington, & he ranks #1 among nation's QBs. So last
4 Irish games have been decided by 4, 3, 3, & OT. Troy again proved its worth,
with 30-3 annihilation at Cal (36:46-23:14 time edge). Yearly romps continue.
UCLA 24 - California 23 - (3:30) -- Bears came from 489 ypg & 49 ppg in their
first 3 gms, to 246 ypg & 3 ppg in their last 2 (minus 67½ pts ATS). Amazing!
And Best has dropped to the 18th slot in RYs. Bruins hardly poster boy of "O",
with 95 & 66 RYs in Pac10 play (only TD LW on INT return). Mild revenge call.
Houston 52 - TULANE 24 - (3:30 - CBSC) -- Let's see: 73 FDs & 1,217 yds the
past 2 weeks for Coogs, with Keenum i off 434 PY, 4 TD effort in win at MissSt.
Wave did in by 5 key TOs after out-statting Marshall. Anderson boys not enuff.
NEBRASKA 45- Texas Tech 31 - (3:30) -- Fourth quarter explosion for 'Huskers
at Mo (27-0), with only setback by 1-pt at VaTech (held Hokies & Tigers to 86
& 91 RYs). Raider QB Sheffield in 1st start: 470 PYs & 7 TDs in 66-14 rout of
KSt (school-record 370 by halftime). Try 739 TYs. But not to be trusted away.
Texas A&M 41 - KANSAS STATE 27 - (7:00) -- 'Cats have feasted on patsies,
but out of their league LW (>450 yd deficit vs TexTech), & should be 0-4 SU in
lined affairs. Ag QB Johnson: another 273 PYs in tight loss to OklaSt, & now
at 1,578 for the season (14 TDs, no INTs): 228 straight without a pick. Lay it!
GEORGIA TECH 27 - Virginia Tech 25 - (6:00) -- Jackets never punted in their
barnburning win at FlaSt (401 RYs), behind Nesbitt & Dwyer. Have now topped
300 RYs 4 times TY. Contrast that with Hokies allowing 59, 38, & 45 RYs last
3 wks, while averaging 219. And check Taylor at 8/1 for the season. To wire.
Missouri 24 - OKLAHOMA STATE 22 - (9:15) -- Have to wonder how far 'Pokes
can go without services of Bryant & Hunter. Winning, but minus 52½ pts ATS
last 3 LGs. Tigs in off 1st loss, with that 27-0 4th quarter deficit vs Nebraska.
Gabbert was 11/0 entering that one, but 0/2, with 'Husker TDs off both. Tight.
EAST CAROLINA 33 - Rice 24 - (3:30) -- Pirates had 5-game C-USA run snapped
at Smu, but run "O" bit improved, with 144 yds from Lindsay vs Ponies. Owls
allowing 44.3 ppg TY, & in off 471-21 RY deficit. But Pirates not to be trusted.
BUFFALO 45 - Akron 24 - (3:30) -- Without QB Jacquemain, Zips are 0-3 both
SU & ATS (by 41 pts), altho they did outstat OhioU LW. Bull RB Nduka: 303
yds in his first 2 starts. Nicely complemented by QB Maynard. UB is the play.
TCU 41 - Colorado State 13 - (4:00) -- Have high regard for Rams, who could
easily be 5-1 SU. Off pair of wrenching losses, with 2-of-3 Stucker INTs turned
into TDs in loss to Utah. Frogs turned it over twice inside AF 10 LW, failing to
cover on final play, despite 23-14 FD edge. Still +134½ pts ATS in last 21 tilts.
LOUISIANA TECH 45 - New Mexico State 14 - (4:00) -- From a 359-RY edge to
a 218-RY deficit in a wk, for Tech, moving the host to 14-2 ATS (by 11, 11, 16,
12½ TY). Ags got by UtahSt, but were totally dominated. Are #105 in run "O".
Kent State 31 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 24 - (4:00) -- Pair of solid squads here.
Entered LW tied at 111th in scoring "O". Kent allowed 505 PYs in loss to BG
(most ever ceded by Flashes), while EM allowing 39 ppg in last 19 LGs. Pass.
IDAHO 34 - Hawaii 13 - (5:00) -- Nicely balanced Vandals (>200 RYs & PYs 2 of
last 3), have posted 5 upsets TY, & perfect 6-0 ATS. 'Bows down to 3rd string
QBing (Moniz). Trailed Fresno 42-3 in 4th, ranking 118 & 102 in run "O" & "D".
Byu 47 - SAN DIEGO STATE 20 - (6:00) -- Coogs have scored 136 pts in their 3
gms since loss to FlaSt, & despite TCU on deck, with be fully focused behind
leadership of Hall & Unga (320 PYs & 149 RYs LW). Aztecs check in at just
60.3 RYpg in LGs, & QB Lindley just 7-of-27 vs NMexSt. Coogs are smoking.
ARIZONA 31 - Stanford 21 - (7:30) -- 'Cats in off pair of road heartstoppers. Led
Washington, 33-21, with 3 minutes left, but lost on deflected INT return. QB
Foles LW: 384 PYs, altho 'Zona overland game worse by week. Card never in
OregSt game. Gerhart: 143 RYpg last 3, but host is 16-3 ATS in Stanford gms.
Illinois 23 - INDIANA 22 - (7:00) -- Don't like this one even a little. Improved Indy
suddenly floundering. A 536-272 yd deficit vs Virginia's 118th ranked offense,
& allowing 58 FDs the past 2 wks. Illini benched Juice in loss to MichSt, but
eventually played. Minus 90 pts ATS last 7 games, & have #105 "D". Skip it.
SO MISSISSIPPI 27 - Memphis 20 - (7:00) -- Time for Eags to stop the bleeding
(3 straight losses). Lost to L'Ville, despite return of Fletcher. Dog 6-0 ATS in
SM games by 56½ pts. Finally some "O" from Tigs, behind 240 Steele RYs.
Northern Illinois 38 - TOLEDO 33 - (7:00) -- Rockets defenseless: 41 ppg last 7
LGs. Trailed WMich 41-12 at the half LW. Still a 26-12 home spread play, but
NIU more consistent, topping 240 RYs 3 of last 4 gms (Spann: 132 RYs LW).
CONNECTICUT 36 - Louisville 17 - (12:00) -- Cards in off 1st win over an FBS
team in a year (FG in final 0:30), with QB Froman sacked just twice (8 time vs
Pitt). Huskies blew 15-pt lead at Pitt, with 147-6 yd deficit in the 4th. Entered
with #4 "D", but allowed nearly 500 in that one. L'Ville: 33 ppg "D" last 18 LGs.
Kansas 37 - COLORADO 20 - (7:00) -- Jays off 3 HGs, with Oklahoma up next,
so nice spot for the Buffs, who held Texas to just 2 offensive TDs in that decent
effort. But KU QB Reesing is in off a 442 PY, 4 TD effort in narrow escape vs
IowaSt, & is at 75% last 2 vs CU. And Buffs are not the best of avenging dogs.
Miami 30 - CENTRAL FLORIDA 23 - (7:30 - CBSC) -- 'Cane QB Harris getting
help from RB Berry, who ran for 162 yds in his 1st start LW (FlaA&M). But UM
lost its last RG by 26½ pt ATS, & UCF just keeps on covering. Check 219 RYs
from Harvey (career-high) in rout of Memphis. Host & dog way to go with both.
FLORIDA 52 - Arkansas 17 - (7:30) -- Tebow back for Gators (11-of-16, plus 18
carries), in win at LSU. Fifteen straight wins, with a 573-147 pt edge, along
with best "D" in nation. Arkies seem unstoppable at times, behind Mallett (6 TD
passes last 2) & Smith (led Auburn 34-3 in 3rd), but Florida in a class by itself.
Navy 45 - SMU 24 - (8:00) -- Called for 17-pt Middie cover LW, but never stepped
out, in 63-14 creaming of Rice (450-RY edge), behind 7 Dobbs TDs. Smu TDs
vs ECaro: blocked FG, INT return, 94-yd pass. Running for just 6 ypg last 2.
ARIZONA STATE 31 - Washington 24 - (10:15) -- Unbelievable! Six TOs for ASt
LW, with only TDs allowed on 99-yd pass & 23-yd pass on 4th down. And try
10 sacks for 'Devil "D". Huskies in off miracle win & cover (15 pts in final 2:55),
but note >200-yd deficit. Chalk is 25-14 ATS in Sun contests, but tread lightly.
Utah 41 - UNLV 17 - (10:00) -- Quite a defense the Rebels have unveiled this yr.
Check allowing 1,384 yds & 122 pts the past 2 weeks! And note a 68 pt deficit
vs the line over their last 3 games. Utes needed 3 key picks to pull comeback
win over ColoSt, & not up to LY's standards, by any means. But #20 rated "O".
FRESNO STATE 42 - San Jose State 7 - (10:00) -- Can see no way Spartans
can stay near in this contest. Field worst "O" in nation, along with 3rd worst
rushing "D", & 5th worst rushing "O". Compare that to Aztecs, who've run for
887 yds last 3 wks, with Mathews at 741 for the season. First HG in a month.
WEDNESDAY
Tulsa 45 - UTEP 27 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- 'Canes bookend this issue, so altho this
should be solidly in their corner, cannot step out. Tulsa owns Miners (Wise Points)
& the chalk has a 153-33 pt edge in 'Cane RGs so far. Utep has been stung for
596.3 ypg & 99 FDs in its last 3 games, so containing this foe seems impossible.
ADDED GAMES
La-Lafayette 24 - WESTERN KY 10 Troy 38 - FLA-INTERN'AL 16
NORTH TEXAS 33 - Fla Atlantic 27 Mississippi St 24 - MID TENN ST 17
FOOTBALL PROPHECY
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
FRESNO STATE over San Jose State RATING: 1
SO CALIFORNIA over Notre Dame RATING: 1
ALABAMA over South Carolina RATING: 2
AIR FORCE over Wyoming RATING: 3
PENN STATE over Minnesota RATING: 4
LA TECH over New Mexico State RATING: 4
TEXAS A&M over Kansas State RATING: 5
WAKE FOREST over Clemson RATING: 5
WEDNESDAY
Boise State 38 - TULSA 30 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Don't like this one. Broncos seem
invincible, behind QB Moore (12/2), & a defense which ranks 14th in scoring. Are
+88½ pts ATS away in '08 & '09, to boot. But 'Canes have scored 56, 56, 63, 77,
49, 56 pts in their last 6 lined HGs, & QB Kinne is one of the better signalcallers.
THURSDAY
Cincinnati 22 - SOUTH FLORIDA 20 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Pair of perfect squads
here. First lined HG for Bulls, who have played superbly, following the loss of QB
Grothe. Have been killed by the TO in series (Wise Points), & with Cincy in off 10
sack showing, can't afford repeat. 'Cat QB Pike at 67% (13/3), & Cincy "D solid.
FRIDAY
Pittsburgh 33 - RUTGERS 24 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Pitt LW: largest comeback win
in Wannstedt's 5 seasons. Down 15, with 0:12 left in 3rd, winning on final play vs
UConn. Panthers nicely balanced (Lewis: 158 RYs LW), led by QB Stull. RU QB
Savage is back, but check just 139 RYpg in lined gms for Knights. Guest series.
SATURDAY
Oklahoma 34 - Texas 31 - (12:00 - ABC - @ Dallas) -- Can anyone explain just
46 RYs for 'Horns vs Colo's 101st run "D"? Anyway, McCoy still brilliant (70%
for the yr): 32-of-39 LW. Bradford back for Okies (27-of-47 with 6 drops vs
Baylor) & Sooners have 7th best run "D" in land. A quadruple OU revenge call.
North Carolina State 24 - BOSTON COLLEGE 22 - (3:30) -- We steer clear of
this one. Just 10 FDs (none in 1st half) & 45 RYs for Eagles at VaTech. Own
93rd rated "O". 'Pack in off 49-28 loss to Duke (Imps' 1st ACC road win in 21
games), but has allowed only 56 RYpg last 3 wks, & at 28 ppg last 9 ACC tilts.
Ohio State 33 - PURDUE 15 - (12:00) -- No, the stats of LW's OhioSt/Wisky gm
not a misprint. Completely dominated by Badgers (8 FDs), only to score 3 TDs
off 2 INTs & a KO return. Still a 799-231 RY edge last 4 outings. Boilers off 5
wrenching losses (120-yd edge LW). Can't run, but QB Elliott: 612 PYs last 2.
Bowling Green 36 - BALL STATE 24 - (12:00) -- Six straight losses for BallSt.
Can't run, nor contain the run. BG can't take advantage, with its 931-230 RY
deficit last 4 wks, but note QB Sheehan off school-record 44-of-63 for 505 yds.
MICHIGAN STATE 33 - Northwestern 30 - (12:00 - ESPN2) -- Nice balance for
Spartans last 2 wks: 195 RYpg, 200 PYpg (21st ranked "O"). 'Cats, as usual,
not about to be trusted in fav role, needing 4 takeaways to get by hapless (0-6)
Miami-Ohio. No running, but QB Kafka at 69%, & dog is 24-8 ATS in NW tilts.
WISCONSIN 31 - Iowa 27 - (12:00) -- Oh, what a horrible setback for Badgers
LW: 42:47-17:13 time, 22-8 FD, & 368-184 TY edges, but 31-13 loss. Surely
move it behind Tolzien & Clay, & if not completely deflated, revenge here is far
from impossible. Iowa has won 10 straight, but yet to reach 200 RYs. Upset.
Virginia 30 - MARYLAND 20 - (4:00) -- Cavs in off largest output in 5 yrs: 536
yds, after entering at just 272 ypg. And check a 2.3 ypr "D" last 2 wks. Terps
trailed Wake 42-17 in 4th, but somehow covered. Ceding 35.1 ppg last 8 LGs.
Wake Forest 27 - CLEMSON 22 - (12:00) -- Just 2 offensive TDs for Tigers in
their last 3 games, ranking lowly 102nd in total "O". Check mere 81 RYs in loss
to MD (missed 2 late FGs). Deacon QB Skinner: 360 PYs & career-best 4 TD
passes vs Terps (TDs in first 5 possessions). Dog 26-16 ATS in Wake games.
IOWA STATE 34 - Baylor 24 - (7:00) -- Just 6 RYs for Bears, without Griffin,
altho his replacement (Florence) was decent (220 PYs). Cycs allowing 35 ppg
in last 14 LGs, but slowly becoming an overland force (219 RYs vs Kansas' #3
rushing "D") topping 200 RYs 5-of-6 gms thus far (Robinson: 652 yds). Cycs.
MISSISSIPPI 38 - Uab 10 - (7:00) -- Reb fall continues. Snead: 7 INTs last 2 wks
& just 46-of-102 last 3 games, with McCuster a non-factor. Chance to finally
do something, despite Uabs' upset of SoMiss (222-111 RY edge & 23-pt cover).
Georgia 19 - VANDERBILT 16 - (12:20) -- Talk about sinking. No "O" TDs for
'Dawgs in 45-19 loss at Tenn, 12 FDpg last 2 wks, & <100 RYs in 4 of last 6
outings. Vandy's only TD at Army via a KO return, fumbling at Cadet 1 in OT of
that loss. But decent "D": 16 ppg. With Florida up next for Georgia, 'Dore call.
AUBURN 33 - Kentucky 27 - (7:30) -- Three straight losses for 'Cats in current
suicide run, but note just a 52-yd combined deficit vs Alabama & SoCaro, & no
TOs vs 'Cocks, after 9 the previous 3 games. Tigs off 1st loss (trailed 34-3),
allowing 28 FDs & 495 yds. But another 184 RYs for Tate. Cats keep it under.
TEMPLE 24 - Army 20 - (1:00) -- Owls used big play for LY's caker vs Cadets, &
this may be another tester, despite TU with a 546-202 RY edge in MAC. Pierce:
421 RYs, 5 TDs last 3 gms. Army can't throw but at 230 RYpg. Dog call here.
Central Michigan 45 - WESTERN MICHIGAN 31 - (3:30) -- No punts for CM in
rout of EMich (LeFevour: 6 TDs), & Chips 48+ pts 3 of last 4. WM from 32-pt
ATS setback, to 31-pt cover in a week, & Hiller now at 87 career TD passes.
AIR FORCE 41 - Wyoming 17 - (2:00) -- Three straight wins for 'Pokes, behind
QB Samuels & RB Alexander, but vs foes with combined 2-14 log. Falcs nailed
cover in final 0:57 LW, & at just 13 FDpg last 3 tilts. Chance to explode. Do so.
OHIO U 38 - Miami-Ohio 20 - (2:00) -- First lined HG for OU since opener. At 33
ppg last 7 LGs, & on 4-1 SU run. Overland dominance LY (Wise Points), &
could repeat. 'Hawk Dysert sacked 17 times, with 5 INTs last 2 wks. Near line.
Nevada 41 - UTAH STATE 24 - (3:00) -- Love the 'Pack. Try 100 pts, 1,234 yds,
& a 904-197 RY edge the past 2 wks, behind the splendid Kaepernick. Ags are
5-0 ATS home LA, by 20.7 ppg, & Turbin at 7.2 ypr for the yr. But Nevada call.
PENN STATE 44 - Minnesota 20 - (3:30) -- Gophs took Purdue by 15, despite
23-14 FD & 402-281 yd deficits. Three TDs off critical Boiler mistakes. We
know that the visitor has covered both BigTen games involving PSt (by 31½
pts), but Lions warming up now, with a 623-189 RY edge since losing to Iowa.
WEST VIRGINIA 31 - Marshall 17 - (3:30) -- Just 3.2 ypr for WV vs Syracuse (1
TD over final 2½ quarters). Devine at 631 RYs, & Herd off 189-116 RY deficit
at Tulane (4 takeaways in 31-10 win). But check RB Marshall at 737 yds TY.
ALABAMA 38 - South Carolina 10 - (3:30) -- What a defense! Allowed just 19
yds & 1 FD in 1st half of 22-3 stomping of OleMiss (418-159 pt edge last 13
tilts). And try 223 RYpg, 221 PYpg on offense. Best start for Spurrier at SC
(5-1), but just a 1-yd edge over KY, needing to stop 2-pt try in final 4:34. Tide!
So California 45 - NOTRE DAME 16 - (3:30 - NBC) -- Clausen off career-best
422 PYs in win over Washington, & he ranks #1 among nation's QBs. So last
4 Irish games have been decided by 4, 3, 3, & OT. Troy again proved its worth,
with 30-3 annihilation at Cal (36:46-23:14 time edge). Yearly romps continue.
UCLA 24 - California 23 - (3:30) -- Bears came from 489 ypg & 49 ppg in their
first 3 gms, to 246 ypg & 3 ppg in their last 2 (minus 67½ pts ATS). Amazing!
And Best has dropped to the 18th slot in RYs. Bruins hardly poster boy of "O",
with 95 & 66 RYs in Pac10 play (only TD LW on INT return). Mild revenge call.
Houston 52 - TULANE 24 - (3:30 - CBSC) -- Let's see: 73 FDs & 1,217 yds the
past 2 weeks for Coogs, with Keenum i off 434 PY, 4 TD effort in win at MissSt.
Wave did in by 5 key TOs after out-statting Marshall. Anderson boys not enuff.
NEBRASKA 45- Texas Tech 31 - (3:30) -- Fourth quarter explosion for 'Huskers
at Mo (27-0), with only setback by 1-pt at VaTech (held Hokies & Tigers to 86
& 91 RYs). Raider QB Sheffield in 1st start: 470 PYs & 7 TDs in 66-14 rout of
KSt (school-record 370 by halftime). Try 739 TYs. But not to be trusted away.
Texas A&M 41 - KANSAS STATE 27 - (7:00) -- 'Cats have feasted on patsies,
but out of their league LW (>450 yd deficit vs TexTech), & should be 0-4 SU in
lined affairs. Ag QB Johnson: another 273 PYs in tight loss to OklaSt, & now
at 1,578 for the season (14 TDs, no INTs): 228 straight without a pick. Lay it!
GEORGIA TECH 27 - Virginia Tech 25 - (6:00) -- Jackets never punted in their
barnburning win at FlaSt (401 RYs), behind Nesbitt & Dwyer. Have now topped
300 RYs 4 times TY. Contrast that with Hokies allowing 59, 38, & 45 RYs last
3 wks, while averaging 219. And check Taylor at 8/1 for the season. To wire.
Missouri 24 - OKLAHOMA STATE 22 - (9:15) -- Have to wonder how far 'Pokes
can go without services of Bryant & Hunter. Winning, but minus 52½ pts ATS
last 3 LGs. Tigs in off 1st loss, with that 27-0 4th quarter deficit vs Nebraska.
Gabbert was 11/0 entering that one, but 0/2, with 'Husker TDs off both. Tight.
EAST CAROLINA 33 - Rice 24 - (3:30) -- Pirates had 5-game C-USA run snapped
at Smu, but run "O" bit improved, with 144 yds from Lindsay vs Ponies. Owls
allowing 44.3 ppg TY, & in off 471-21 RY deficit. But Pirates not to be trusted.
BUFFALO 45 - Akron 24 - (3:30) -- Without QB Jacquemain, Zips are 0-3 both
SU & ATS (by 41 pts), altho they did outstat OhioU LW. Bull RB Nduka: 303
yds in his first 2 starts. Nicely complemented by QB Maynard. UB is the play.
TCU 41 - Colorado State 13 - (4:00) -- Have high regard for Rams, who could
easily be 5-1 SU. Off pair of wrenching losses, with 2-of-3 Stucker INTs turned
into TDs in loss to Utah. Frogs turned it over twice inside AF 10 LW, failing to
cover on final play, despite 23-14 FD edge. Still +134½ pts ATS in last 21 tilts.
LOUISIANA TECH 45 - New Mexico State 14 - (4:00) -- From a 359-RY edge to
a 218-RY deficit in a wk, for Tech, moving the host to 14-2 ATS (by 11, 11, 16,
12½ TY). Ags got by UtahSt, but were totally dominated. Are #105 in run "O".
Kent State 31 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 24 - (4:00) -- Pair of solid squads here.
Entered LW tied at 111th in scoring "O". Kent allowed 505 PYs in loss to BG
(most ever ceded by Flashes), while EM allowing 39 ppg in last 19 LGs. Pass.
IDAHO 34 - Hawaii 13 - (5:00) -- Nicely balanced Vandals (>200 RYs & PYs 2 of
last 3), have posted 5 upsets TY, & perfect 6-0 ATS. 'Bows down to 3rd string
QBing (Moniz). Trailed Fresno 42-3 in 4th, ranking 118 & 102 in run "O" & "D".
Byu 47 - SAN DIEGO STATE 20 - (6:00) -- Coogs have scored 136 pts in their 3
gms since loss to FlaSt, & despite TCU on deck, with be fully focused behind
leadership of Hall & Unga (320 PYs & 149 RYs LW). Aztecs check in at just
60.3 RYpg in LGs, & QB Lindley just 7-of-27 vs NMexSt. Coogs are smoking.
ARIZONA 31 - Stanford 21 - (7:30) -- 'Cats in off pair of road heartstoppers. Led
Washington, 33-21, with 3 minutes left, but lost on deflected INT return. QB
Foles LW: 384 PYs, altho 'Zona overland game worse by week. Card never in
OregSt game. Gerhart: 143 RYpg last 3, but host is 16-3 ATS in Stanford gms.
Illinois 23 - INDIANA 22 - (7:00) -- Don't like this one even a little. Improved Indy
suddenly floundering. A 536-272 yd deficit vs Virginia's 118th ranked offense,
& allowing 58 FDs the past 2 wks. Illini benched Juice in loss to MichSt, but
eventually played. Minus 90 pts ATS last 7 games, & have #105 "D". Skip it.
SO MISSISSIPPI 27 - Memphis 20 - (7:00) -- Time for Eags to stop the bleeding
(3 straight losses). Lost to L'Ville, despite return of Fletcher. Dog 6-0 ATS in
SM games by 56½ pts. Finally some "O" from Tigs, behind 240 Steele RYs.
Northern Illinois 38 - TOLEDO 33 - (7:00) -- Rockets defenseless: 41 ppg last 7
LGs. Trailed WMich 41-12 at the half LW. Still a 26-12 home spread play, but
NIU more consistent, topping 240 RYs 3 of last 4 gms (Spann: 132 RYs LW).
CONNECTICUT 36 - Louisville 17 - (12:00) -- Cards in off 1st win over an FBS
team in a year (FG in final 0:30), with QB Froman sacked just twice (8 time vs
Pitt). Huskies blew 15-pt lead at Pitt, with 147-6 yd deficit in the 4th. Entered
with #4 "D", but allowed nearly 500 in that one. L'Ville: 33 ppg "D" last 18 LGs.
Kansas 37 - COLORADO 20 - (7:00) -- Jays off 3 HGs, with Oklahoma up next,
so nice spot for the Buffs, who held Texas to just 2 offensive TDs in that decent
effort. But KU QB Reesing is in off a 442 PY, 4 TD effort in narrow escape vs
IowaSt, & is at 75% last 2 vs CU. And Buffs are not the best of avenging dogs.
Miami 30 - CENTRAL FLORIDA 23 - (7:30 - CBSC) -- 'Cane QB Harris getting
help from RB Berry, who ran for 162 yds in his 1st start LW (FlaA&M). But UM
lost its last RG by 26½ pt ATS, & UCF just keeps on covering. Check 219 RYs
from Harvey (career-high) in rout of Memphis. Host & dog way to go with both.
FLORIDA 52 - Arkansas 17 - (7:30) -- Tebow back for Gators (11-of-16, plus 18
carries), in win at LSU. Fifteen straight wins, with a 573-147 pt edge, along
with best "D" in nation. Arkies seem unstoppable at times, behind Mallett (6 TD
passes last 2) & Smith (led Auburn 34-3 in 3rd), but Florida in a class by itself.
Navy 45 - SMU 24 - (8:00) -- Called for 17-pt Middie cover LW, but never stepped
out, in 63-14 creaming of Rice (450-RY edge), behind 7 Dobbs TDs. Smu TDs
vs ECaro: blocked FG, INT return, 94-yd pass. Running for just 6 ypg last 2.
ARIZONA STATE 31 - Washington 24 - (10:15) -- Unbelievable! Six TOs for ASt
LW, with only TDs allowed on 99-yd pass & 23-yd pass on 4th down. And try
10 sacks for 'Devil "D". Huskies in off miracle win & cover (15 pts in final 2:55),
but note >200-yd deficit. Chalk is 25-14 ATS in Sun contests, but tread lightly.
Utah 41 - UNLV 17 - (10:00) -- Quite a defense the Rebels have unveiled this yr.
Check allowing 1,384 yds & 122 pts the past 2 weeks! And note a 68 pt deficit
vs the line over their last 3 games. Utes needed 3 key picks to pull comeback
win over ColoSt, & not up to LY's standards, by any means. But #20 rated "O".
FRESNO STATE 42 - San Jose State 7 - (10:00) -- Can see no way Spartans
can stay near in this contest. Field worst "O" in nation, along with 3rd worst
rushing "D", & 5th worst rushing "O". Compare that to Aztecs, who've run for
887 yds last 3 wks, with Mathews at 741 for the season. First HG in a month.
WEDNESDAY
Tulsa 45 - UTEP 27 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- 'Canes bookend this issue, so altho this
should be solidly in their corner, cannot step out. Tulsa owns Miners (Wise Points)
& the chalk has a 153-33 pt edge in 'Cane RGs so far. Utep has been stung for
596.3 ypg & 99 FDs in its last 3 games, so containing this foe seems impossible.
ADDED GAMES
La-Lafayette 24 - WESTERN KY 10 Troy 38 - FLA-INTERN'AL 16
NORTH TEXAS 33 - Fla Atlantic 27 Mississippi St 24 - MID TENN ST 17
POINTWISE PROFESSIONAL
FOOTBALL PROPHECY
NFL KEY RELEASES
GREEN BAY over Detroit RATING: 2
SEATTLE over Arizona RATING: 3
PITTSBURGH over Cleveland RATING: 4
ATLANTA over Chicago RATING: 4
DENVER over San Diego RATING: 5
WASHINGTON 20 - Kansas City 19 - (1:00) -- Fourth straight NFC East game
for Chiefs, & they're getting closer, losing to the Cowboys in OT LW, after tying
it on a Cassel pass in final 0:24. First cover since LY, but still tied with Rams,
Titans, Bucs for worst record in NFL (0-5). 'Skins blew 17-2 lead at Carolina,
but note Wash TD drives of 13 & 1 yd. Averaging just 14.6 ppg TY, & have yet
to outrush an opponent. That one moves visitor to 11-4 ATS in 'Skin games.
Washington is just 3-10-2 ATS LA, as well as 1-8 ATS hosting an AFC squad,
& 1-8 ATS as fav vs .333 or less foe. And Zorn 0-4 ATS vs AFC. This a take.
Houston 26 - CINCINNATI 23 - (1:00) -- Three straight last-minute wins for the
Bengals, this time on a 20-yd Palmer TD pass in final 0:22 at Baltimore. And
it's not all Carson, as Benson checks in with 487 RYs, including 120 LY, as he
became the first 100-yd rusher allowed by the Ravens in 40 games! Cincy
sits atop the AFC North, & rightly so. Texans in off excruciating loss, coming
all the way back from a 21-0 deficit at Arizona, only to lose on a Schaub INT,
followed by failing to cash in from the 'Zona 1 on 3 plays. Texans 13-5 ATS as
RDs in 2nd straight RG, while Bengals 1-8 ATS at home in Oct off a SU win.
PITTSBURGH 31 - Cleveland 0 - (1:00) -- Why not? We'll try the exact same
score of when these 2 met here a year ago. Browns in off snapping 10-game
losing skein, & what a steamrolling performance it was: 9 FDs, with Anderson
a solid 2-of-17, altho Lewis did motor for 113 RYs. Still a 121-55 pt deficit for
the year. Steelers now in stride, despite their 1-4 spread log. Have scored 8
TDs in last 8 drives inside the red zone, with Ben at 74% for the year (23-of-30
LW), & Mendenhall at 242 RYs last 2 wks. Browns are 4-13 ATS off yielding
<10 pts, & have been outscored by 150 pts in their last 9 games. Steeler rout!
MINNESOTA 27 - Baltimore 26 - (1:00) -- What a sweet thing it is. Favre is now
5-0 for the first time in his illustrious career. Seems hard to believe. And he is
42-of-55 the past 2 wks, with a 9/2 TD to INT record for the year. Vikes were
actually outstatted by the Rams in that 38-10 romper, which pushed the visitor
in Minny games to 8-1 ATS. Two straight losses for the Ravens, who seemed
so invincible a couple of wks ago. Note a 22-12 FD deficit vs Cincy, while
allowing a 100-yd runner for 1st time in 40 games. But Flacco still at 64%, &
Ravens are 12-6 ATS off loss of <4 pts. Nothing will be left on the field in this.
JACKSONVILLE 34 - St Louis 17 - (1:00) -- Originally didn't like either side, but
after further discussion, no other way to go. The Jags seem silly, as an 11-pt
fav, especially in light of their putrid showing at Seattle, in which they managed
just 12 FDs, with Garrard suffering 5 sacks & 2 fumbles, in that 41-0 debacle.
But they did cover their last HG by 23 pts, and the Rams are the pits. Fourteen
straight loses (franchise record); no rushing TDs all year; 7 ppg; 10 TOs past
3 wks; a 410-158 pt deficit in those 14 losses. Etc, etc. Rams 11-31 ATS off
a SU/ATS loss, 12-25 ATS on grass. And Jags 14-2 ATS before the Titans.
New York Giants 31 - NEW ORLEANS 24 - (1:00) -- Game of the Week! The
Giants are simply magnificent. An 80-pt edge in their 1st 5 games, with Eli
now 10/2 for the season, & that "D" without peer, in the early going. They've
covered to the tune of 22-5 lately, with their road spread streak now at an
incredible 17-2. Check a 27-7 FD edge LW over the Raiders. The perfect
Saints own the best "O" in the NFL, so the irresistible force vs the immovable
object. But no TD passes for Brees the past 2 games, after 9 in the first 2 wks.
Worth noting. Back-to-back HGs vs NY teams for Saints. Outcome different.
TAMPA BAY 23 - Carolina 22 - (1:00) -- Hold our noses, & figure time for the
Bucs to end their 9-game slide. After all, their 5 remaining HGs are against the
Pats, Packers, Saints, Jets, & Falcons. Not much hope there. We know that
they've allowed 30 ppg in their last 7 games, but the Panthers rank just 29th in
scoring, so may keep this in sight. Carolina overcame a 17-2 deficit hosting
the 'Skins, with its winning drive just 12 yds following a fumble recovery. That
one, by the way only extended Carolina's horrid spread run to 0-11, including
the pre-season. Chalk is 13-5 ATS in Panther contests, but we buck that here.
GREEN BAY 38 - Detroit 17 - (1:00) -- Pack rested off their all-out Monday war
at Minnesota, in which Rodgers was an impressive 26-of-37 for 384 yds & a
pair of TDs (1 INT - his lone pick TY). A year ago, GreenBay beat Detroit here,
by a 31-21 score (½ pt ATS loss), thereby putting the finishing touch to Lions'
0-16 season. Detroit off respectable showing vs Pitt, with Culpepper a decent
23-of-37, filling in for Stafford. And check a 46-32 FD edge for the Lions the
past 2 wks. But WR Johnson hurting again (thigh). The Pack is a 3-12 ATS
play as a DD chalk, but Lions are 3-8 ATS at Lambeau, & ripe for the plucking.
Philadelphia 30 - OAKLAND 10 - (4:05) -- Backing yet another double digit chalk
here. But as we've asked numerous times, how can you go any other way?
The Raiders worse by the week. From 20, to 13, to 3, to 6, to 7 pts this year.
Try managing just 9, 8, & 7 FDs the past 3 weeks. In their loss to the Giants,
7 was the magic number: 7 pts, 7 punts, 7 FDs. A study in gridiron anemia.
McNabb's return resulted in 3 TD passes in the first half of LW's rout of the
Bucs. Sure, the Eagles' lack of overland power (85, 93, 76 RYs past 3 games)
cause for concern, but won't be exposed here. Oakland 13-25 ATS as a HD.
SEATTLE 31 - Arizona 20 - (4:05) -- He's back, & so are the Seahawks! Return
of Hasselbeck transforms this squad from an impotent also-ran to a contender.
He was 18-of-30 with 4 TDs (no picks) in 41-0 wipeout of the Jags. A 40-pt
cover! And that after averaging just 15.3 ppg the previous 3 wks. Cards in off
blowing 21-0 halftime lead over Houston, but prevailing, thanks to a "D" which
provided a TD, & goal line stand. We know that 'Zona has covered its last 2
RGs by 29½ & 17 pts, but we'll see just how high that this new Seahawk team
will rise. Oh, a nice 143-38 RY edge also accompanied Hasselbeck's return.
NEW YORK JETS 27 - Buffalo 10 - (4:15) -- Jets off Monday Nighter at Miami,
& bloom is off the Sanchez rose in NY's loss to the Saints. He turned the ball
over 4 times in that setback (Jets' 1st), after coughing it up just 3 times in his
first 3 games. However, it's worth noting that NY allowed the league's most
prolific offense just a single TD (2 of 3 Saint TDs on 99-yd INT return, & fumble
recovery). Not good news for hapless Bills, who are at 7 ppg in their last 3
outings, hitting rock bottom with 3-pt effort vs the Browns' 32nd ranked "D".
NY allowing 13 ppg at home thus far, & Buffalo lost its last RG by 38-10 score.
NEW ENGLAND 31 - Tennessee 13 - (4:15) -- The Titans can't go 0-2. The
Titans can't go 0-3. The Titans can't go 0-4. The Titans can't go 0-5. Well,
they continue to prove those folks wrong, so when you hear that the Titans
can't go 0-6, don't bat an eye. They surely can. Just 12 FDs & a 122-yd deficit
in latest 31-9 embarrassment vs Indy. And catching the Pats off their OT loss
at Denver is no remedy for stopping that slide. No 2nd half pts for NewEngland
in that setback, & Pats hurting a bit on the "O" line. But they're 12-2 ATS off a
SU loss, as a favorite, & 42-17 ATS as a non-division HF. Titan woes continue.
ATLANTA 22 - Chicago 16 - (8:20 - NBC) -- Wow! Falcons surely impressed
with that wipeout of SanFran, using their bye week to perfection, on the heels
of a 16-pt loss at NewEngland (28-13 FD & 200-yd edges). Check Ryan with
a career-high 329 PYs, as White set a franchise record with 210 receiving yds.
And note Turner with 97 RYs. A complete game. Bears are on a 3-game run,
following their opening week mistake-prone loss to the Packers. Check Cutler
now at 8/5, after throwing those 4 picks vs GreenBay. The chalk is +90½ pts
ATS in Bear's last 12 gms, & they're 0-7 ATS off 2 wins, if last was by >9 pts.
MONDAY
Denver 23 - SAN DIEGO 20 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Amazing! Broncs were figured
somewhere near the dregs TY, but McDaniels has them at 5-0 for the 1st time
since their '98 SuperBowl season. Denver allowing just 8.6 ppg, holding the Pats
scoreless in the 2nd half LW, after shutting out Dallas over the final 3 quarters 2
wks ago. Orton is now 8-1 SU in his last 9 starts, with Marshall a "money" target,
& Moreno doing it, overland. Chargers won 52-21 here LY, but had 32-17 FD &
497-251 yd deficits in their last game (Pittsburgh), while ranking last in overland
production. Broncos remember that bitter '08 loss, keeping them from playoffs.
FOOTBALL PROPHECY
NFL KEY RELEASES
GREEN BAY over Detroit RATING: 2
SEATTLE over Arizona RATING: 3
PITTSBURGH over Cleveland RATING: 4
ATLANTA over Chicago RATING: 4
DENVER over San Diego RATING: 5
WASHINGTON 20 - Kansas City 19 - (1:00) -- Fourth straight NFC East game
for Chiefs, & they're getting closer, losing to the Cowboys in OT LW, after tying
it on a Cassel pass in final 0:24. First cover since LY, but still tied with Rams,
Titans, Bucs for worst record in NFL (0-5). 'Skins blew 17-2 lead at Carolina,
but note Wash TD drives of 13 & 1 yd. Averaging just 14.6 ppg TY, & have yet
to outrush an opponent. That one moves visitor to 11-4 ATS in 'Skin games.
Washington is just 3-10-2 ATS LA, as well as 1-8 ATS hosting an AFC squad,
& 1-8 ATS as fav vs .333 or less foe. And Zorn 0-4 ATS vs AFC. This a take.
Houston 26 - CINCINNATI 23 - (1:00) -- Three straight last-minute wins for the
Bengals, this time on a 20-yd Palmer TD pass in final 0:22 at Baltimore. And
it's not all Carson, as Benson checks in with 487 RYs, including 120 LY, as he
became the first 100-yd rusher allowed by the Ravens in 40 games! Cincy
sits atop the AFC North, & rightly so. Texans in off excruciating loss, coming
all the way back from a 21-0 deficit at Arizona, only to lose on a Schaub INT,
followed by failing to cash in from the 'Zona 1 on 3 plays. Texans 13-5 ATS as
RDs in 2nd straight RG, while Bengals 1-8 ATS at home in Oct off a SU win.
PITTSBURGH 31 - Cleveland 0 - (1:00) -- Why not? We'll try the exact same
score of when these 2 met here a year ago. Browns in off snapping 10-game
losing skein, & what a steamrolling performance it was: 9 FDs, with Anderson
a solid 2-of-17, altho Lewis did motor for 113 RYs. Still a 121-55 pt deficit for
the year. Steelers now in stride, despite their 1-4 spread log. Have scored 8
TDs in last 8 drives inside the red zone, with Ben at 74% for the year (23-of-30
LW), & Mendenhall at 242 RYs last 2 wks. Browns are 4-13 ATS off yielding
<10 pts, & have been outscored by 150 pts in their last 9 games. Steeler rout!
MINNESOTA 27 - Baltimore 26 - (1:00) -- What a sweet thing it is. Favre is now
5-0 for the first time in his illustrious career. Seems hard to believe. And he is
42-of-55 the past 2 wks, with a 9/2 TD to INT record for the year. Vikes were
actually outstatted by the Rams in that 38-10 romper, which pushed the visitor
in Minny games to 8-1 ATS. Two straight losses for the Ravens, who seemed
so invincible a couple of wks ago. Note a 22-12 FD deficit vs Cincy, while
allowing a 100-yd runner for 1st time in 40 games. But Flacco still at 64%, &
Ravens are 12-6 ATS off loss of <4 pts. Nothing will be left on the field in this.
JACKSONVILLE 34 - St Louis 17 - (1:00) -- Originally didn't like either side, but
after further discussion, no other way to go. The Jags seem silly, as an 11-pt
fav, especially in light of their putrid showing at Seattle, in which they managed
just 12 FDs, with Garrard suffering 5 sacks & 2 fumbles, in that 41-0 debacle.
But they did cover their last HG by 23 pts, and the Rams are the pits. Fourteen
straight loses (franchise record); no rushing TDs all year; 7 ppg; 10 TOs past
3 wks; a 410-158 pt deficit in those 14 losses. Etc, etc. Rams 11-31 ATS off
a SU/ATS loss, 12-25 ATS on grass. And Jags 14-2 ATS before the Titans.
New York Giants 31 - NEW ORLEANS 24 - (1:00) -- Game of the Week! The
Giants are simply magnificent. An 80-pt edge in their 1st 5 games, with Eli
now 10/2 for the season, & that "D" without peer, in the early going. They've
covered to the tune of 22-5 lately, with their road spread streak now at an
incredible 17-2. Check a 27-7 FD edge LW over the Raiders. The perfect
Saints own the best "O" in the NFL, so the irresistible force vs the immovable
object. But no TD passes for Brees the past 2 games, after 9 in the first 2 wks.
Worth noting. Back-to-back HGs vs NY teams for Saints. Outcome different.
TAMPA BAY 23 - Carolina 22 - (1:00) -- Hold our noses, & figure time for the
Bucs to end their 9-game slide. After all, their 5 remaining HGs are against the
Pats, Packers, Saints, Jets, & Falcons. Not much hope there. We know that
they've allowed 30 ppg in their last 7 games, but the Panthers rank just 29th in
scoring, so may keep this in sight. Carolina overcame a 17-2 deficit hosting
the 'Skins, with its winning drive just 12 yds following a fumble recovery. That
one, by the way only extended Carolina's horrid spread run to 0-11, including
the pre-season. Chalk is 13-5 ATS in Panther contests, but we buck that here.
GREEN BAY 38 - Detroit 17 - (1:00) -- Pack rested off their all-out Monday war
at Minnesota, in which Rodgers was an impressive 26-of-37 for 384 yds & a
pair of TDs (1 INT - his lone pick TY). A year ago, GreenBay beat Detroit here,
by a 31-21 score (½ pt ATS loss), thereby putting the finishing touch to Lions'
0-16 season. Detroit off respectable showing vs Pitt, with Culpepper a decent
23-of-37, filling in for Stafford. And check a 46-32 FD edge for the Lions the
past 2 wks. But WR Johnson hurting again (thigh). The Pack is a 3-12 ATS
play as a DD chalk, but Lions are 3-8 ATS at Lambeau, & ripe for the plucking.
Philadelphia 30 - OAKLAND 10 - (4:05) -- Backing yet another double digit chalk
here. But as we've asked numerous times, how can you go any other way?
The Raiders worse by the week. From 20, to 13, to 3, to 6, to 7 pts this year.
Try managing just 9, 8, & 7 FDs the past 3 weeks. In their loss to the Giants,
7 was the magic number: 7 pts, 7 punts, 7 FDs. A study in gridiron anemia.
McNabb's return resulted in 3 TD passes in the first half of LW's rout of the
Bucs. Sure, the Eagles' lack of overland power (85, 93, 76 RYs past 3 games)
cause for concern, but won't be exposed here. Oakland 13-25 ATS as a HD.
SEATTLE 31 - Arizona 20 - (4:05) -- He's back, & so are the Seahawks! Return
of Hasselbeck transforms this squad from an impotent also-ran to a contender.
He was 18-of-30 with 4 TDs (no picks) in 41-0 wipeout of the Jags. A 40-pt
cover! And that after averaging just 15.3 ppg the previous 3 wks. Cards in off
blowing 21-0 halftime lead over Houston, but prevailing, thanks to a "D" which
provided a TD, & goal line stand. We know that 'Zona has covered its last 2
RGs by 29½ & 17 pts, but we'll see just how high that this new Seahawk team
will rise. Oh, a nice 143-38 RY edge also accompanied Hasselbeck's return.
NEW YORK JETS 27 - Buffalo 10 - (4:15) -- Jets off Monday Nighter at Miami,
& bloom is off the Sanchez rose in NY's loss to the Saints. He turned the ball
over 4 times in that setback (Jets' 1st), after coughing it up just 3 times in his
first 3 games. However, it's worth noting that NY allowed the league's most
prolific offense just a single TD (2 of 3 Saint TDs on 99-yd INT return, & fumble
recovery). Not good news for hapless Bills, who are at 7 ppg in their last 3
outings, hitting rock bottom with 3-pt effort vs the Browns' 32nd ranked "D".
NY allowing 13 ppg at home thus far, & Buffalo lost its last RG by 38-10 score.
NEW ENGLAND 31 - Tennessee 13 - (4:15) -- The Titans can't go 0-2. The
Titans can't go 0-3. The Titans can't go 0-4. The Titans can't go 0-5. Well,
they continue to prove those folks wrong, so when you hear that the Titans
can't go 0-6, don't bat an eye. They surely can. Just 12 FDs & a 122-yd deficit
in latest 31-9 embarrassment vs Indy. And catching the Pats off their OT loss
at Denver is no remedy for stopping that slide. No 2nd half pts for NewEngland
in that setback, & Pats hurting a bit on the "O" line. But they're 12-2 ATS off a
SU loss, as a favorite, & 42-17 ATS as a non-division HF. Titan woes continue.
ATLANTA 22 - Chicago 16 - (8:20 - NBC) -- Wow! Falcons surely impressed
with that wipeout of SanFran, using their bye week to perfection, on the heels
of a 16-pt loss at NewEngland (28-13 FD & 200-yd edges). Check Ryan with
a career-high 329 PYs, as White set a franchise record with 210 receiving yds.
And note Turner with 97 RYs. A complete game. Bears are on a 3-game run,
following their opening week mistake-prone loss to the Packers. Check Cutler
now at 8/5, after throwing those 4 picks vs GreenBay. The chalk is +90½ pts
ATS in Bear's last 12 gms, & they're 0-7 ATS off 2 wins, if last was by >9 pts.
MONDAY
Denver 23 - SAN DIEGO 20 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Amazing! Broncs were figured
somewhere near the dregs TY, but McDaniels has them at 5-0 for the 1st time
since their '98 SuperBowl season. Denver allowing just 8.6 ppg, holding the Pats
scoreless in the 2nd half LW, after shutting out Dallas over the final 3 quarters 2
wks ago. Orton is now 8-1 SU in his last 9 starts, with Marshall a "money" target,
& Moreno doing it, overland. Chargers won 52-21 here LY, but had 32-17 FD &
497-251 yd deficits in their last game (Pittsburgh), while ranking last in overland
production. Broncos remember that bitter '08 loss, keeping them from playoffs.
POWER SWEEP, POWER PLAYS & PLAYBOOK
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Winning Points, Sports Reporter, Pointwise
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Hello guys
This is a report from Vic Monte Sports.
TOP 15 NCAA HANDICAPPERS
As of 10/13/09
#1 SPORTS ADVISOR (CFB 5-0-1 ~ 100%)
#2 MILLIONAIRE CLUB (CFB 6-1~ 86% - 30-8 Since start of '08)
#3 PURE LOCK (CFB 5-1 ~ 86%)
#4 VEGAS CONNECTION (CFB 21-5 ~ 81%)
#5 INSIDE STEAM (CFB 17-4 ~ 81%)
#6 PRIMETIME (CFB 12-3 ~ 80%)
#7 FRANK PATRON (CFB 15-5 ~ 75%)
#8 THE COACH (CFB 15-6 ~ 71%)
#9 MVP POWERLOCKS (CFB 4-2 ~ 67% - 25-10 Since start of '07)
#10 COWTOWN (CFB 10-5 ~ 67%)
#11 COMPUTER 900# (CFB 23-12 ~ 66%)
#12 RIGHT ANGLE SPORTS (CFB 26-14 ~ 65%)
#13 BEN BURNS (CFB 25-14 ~ 64%)
#14 THE HOTLINE (CFB 21-12 ~ 64%)
#15 JIM KRUGER (CFB 19-11 ~ 63%)
This is a report from Vic Monte Sports.
TOP 15 NCAA HANDICAPPERS
As of 10/13/09
#1 SPORTS ADVISOR (CFB 5-0-1 ~ 100%)
#2 MILLIONAIRE CLUB (CFB 6-1~ 86% - 30-8 Since start of '08)
#3 PURE LOCK (CFB 5-1 ~ 86%)
#4 VEGAS CONNECTION (CFB 21-5 ~ 81%)
#5 INSIDE STEAM (CFB 17-4 ~ 81%)
#6 PRIMETIME (CFB 12-3 ~ 80%)
#7 FRANK PATRON (CFB 15-5 ~ 75%)
#8 THE COACH (CFB 15-6 ~ 71%)
#9 MVP POWERLOCKS (CFB 4-2 ~ 67% - 25-10 Since start of '07)
#10 COWTOWN (CFB 10-5 ~ 67%)
#11 COMPUTER 900# (CFB 23-12 ~ 66%)
#12 RIGHT ANGLE SPORTS (CFB 26-14 ~ 65%)
#13 BEN BURNS (CFB 25-14 ~ 64%)
#14 THE HOTLINE (CFB 21-12 ~ 64%)
#15 JIM KRUGER (CFB 19-11 ~ 63%)
