I worked on a basketball system all through the NBA season that actually ended up in profit -- my first year of doing so without following someone else's picks. I have been working on a way to "convert" the system over to football, as it is not really sport-specific but more to do with odds and spreads.
The very basics of the system are:
1) Only bet on dogs (not to be confused with betting on all dogs.)
2) On all bets, place a certain amount on the spread and a smaller amount on the ML -- always small enough so that a spread win will cover a loss on the ML with change left over.
3) The ratio of the amount between the ATS and ML bets is determined by the spread itself -- the wider it is, the lower the percentage.
The rest boils down to deciding on which teams to actually make the bet, which I did so in an entirely unscientific manner: mostly by hitting the dogs where public money was slamming the favourites.
At the end of the season, this ended up very slightly in profit -- not much, but low double digits, which has me thinking that by refining my math skills and basketball knowledge I could improve this win rate next season.
I'd like to try to transpose this over to football, but the points are so odd in football -- 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, etc., that I am worried about how to determine the proper percentage to put on the dog ML bet. The dog ML bets in NBA are what made the system profitable, because the extra little bit of money made when a +8.5 dog wins outright can really add up over the course of a season.
Just not sure how it would work out as far as football spreads go. Any suggestions?
Phaedrus
The very basics of the system are:
1) Only bet on dogs (not to be confused with betting on all dogs.)
2) On all bets, place a certain amount on the spread and a smaller amount on the ML -- always small enough so that a spread win will cover a loss on the ML with change left over.
3) The ratio of the amount between the ATS and ML bets is determined by the spread itself -- the wider it is, the lower the percentage.
The rest boils down to deciding on which teams to actually make the bet, which I did so in an entirely unscientific manner: mostly by hitting the dogs where public money was slamming the favourites.
At the end of the season, this ended up very slightly in profit -- not much, but low double digits, which has me thinking that by refining my math skills and basketball knowledge I could improve this win rate next season.
I'd like to try to transpose this over to football, but the points are so odd in football -- 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, etc., that I am worried about how to determine the proper percentage to put on the dog ML bet. The dog ML bets in NBA are what made the system profitable, because the extra little bit of money made when a +8.5 dog wins outright can really add up over the course of a season.
Just not sure how it would work out as far as football spreads go. Any suggestions?
Phaedrus
