New Years Gift

[DocHolliday]

Won’t bore you with too much info. I do have a few connections to UGA. My capping plus a little inside info I’m pounding UGA on the ML today.

a few factors:
- Ohio state, weak schedule. Only played 3 ranked teams. Struggled against ND, beat penn state whose overrated, and then got drilled by michigan

- Georgia drilled Oregon, beat South Carolina on the road, anyone that watched the Tenn game knows uga dominated that and we saw what Tenn did to clemson last night. Would a healthy Tenn beat ohio state I say hell yes. Uga also beat LsU in this very same building

- game is practically a home game for uga

- for the people wondering the line. It opened at 7, now it’s at 6. Honestly it could be 3 and people would still bet Ohio state. Ohio state is a bigger name than uga is in the sport. People see Ohio state and automatically think they are elite, this Ohio state team isn’t.

- for people that like trends. Semi final games typically are blow outs. Whose more likely to blow out who?

- again a little insider information as well that I can’t share, I’ll just simply say the uga side of things is extremely confident.

I’m taking the money line but I do think this ends up a 2 score game. With the Money I’m betting just don’t want to get back doored. If Ohio state gets ball first and scores I’ll likely add even more to the ML.

happy new year and don’t over think this one.

 

[alexnguyen]

Thanks for sharing but some of your angles are biased. You said people will take OSU if the line was +3 because people hear OSU and think they're elite, but it's quite the opposite. People are pounding UGA due to their recent success and coming off of a National Championship just a year ago. This line could easily be 7.5 and majority will still pound Georgia.

With that said if I'm just capping the game it does feel like OSU is overmatched.

 

[secondcity]

The money line is pretty prohibitive at -240

 

[DocHolliday]

Couldn’t disagree more. Line opened at 7. It’s now at 6. Take a quick look around some forums, social media, etc.

Georgia hasn’t been less than a 10 point fav all year. They are today due to the OSU brand. Nothing more.

as for moneyline, I saw two places this morning that had the ml under that, one even at 220. I’m looking at one right now that has it at 230 on a site notorious for bumping the favorites up. Shop around

 

[HacheMan]

Thanks for sharing

 

[skins85]

Got a few teasers on Georgia. My angle is Kirby smart over Ryan day. In matchups day has mostly won simply cause of superior talent but he has gotten outcoached when he deals with a top level coach. Georgia is more talented and in my opinion far superior at the coaching spot. Add in experience and I believe Georgia routes them. Most playoff games aren’t as close as we think they are. We always expect a close game but a lot of them are blowouts

 

[bornlivedie]

Agree with most of what you post. But PSU is far from overrated. Ive watched all their games and the roster is loaded. Top 5 team next year. Coach Franklin plays the wrong players.

 

[XENO]

Line is 6 cause sharps and wiseguys taking Ohio st but public is like 7-1 on Georgia -however some big services on Ohio + juice is going up early on buckeyes -look for line to change later on and that should give a clue

 

[DocHolliday]

Only sharps and wise guys right? Geez. Line dropped because more people than you realize are on OSU.

agree to disagree on Penn state. Penn state is a clear third best team in a very weak conference. You put them in the sec big12 or probably even the acc and they are a 3/4 loss team.

Penn state played 2 ranked teams. Got handled by an average of 19 points. Their next toughest game was who? Minnesota at home? Maryland at home? I give them credit for scheduling auburn but auburn obviously sucks this year. Penn state is a top 25 team but closer to 25 than 5.

 

[Locksmith]

Only sharps and wise guys right? Geez. Line dropped because more people than you realize are on OSU.

agree to disagree on Penn state. Penn state is a clear third best team in a very weak conference. You put them in the sec big12 or probably even the acc and they are a 3/4 loss team.

Penn state played 2 ranked teams. Got handled by an average of 19 points. Their next toughest game was who? Minnesota at home? Maryland at home? I give them credit for scheduling auburn but auburn obviously sucks this year. Penn state is a top 25 team but closer to 25 than 5.

Georgia has been dominant all year. They are the best team. Line stinks imo based on what the public watched Ohio St do vs Michigan. The public isn’t on Ohio St., to think that is foolish. SEC has been garbage in the bowl games thus far, with Tennessee the only winner. I personally think this game is closer than people anticipate. We’ll see what happens.

 

[exploited17]

Ohio St Offense is the most dangerous offense if the playoffs
If anyone can give Georgia a problem it is them

You do have the option of taking Georgia to win the title at -145 instead of -240 or higher just today
If Georgia wins today I have a very hard time believing they lose to TCU or Michigan

 

[DocHolliday]

Right. The line moved from 7 to 6 because people are betting uga right? If they needed OSU money they’d raise that line back to 7. They don’t. Money all over OSU and it’s foolish to think that only the wise guys are causing this. Again go look at forums and social media, scamdicappers. Probably 4/5 to 1 people on OSU.

also line didn’t go from 7 to 6. It went from 7 to 6.5 then to 6. Now at most places osu is juiced at 6.

OSU is a brand. Uga has handled Oregon LsU Tennessee amongst others and haven’t been less than 10 pt favs all year. What exactly has OSU done to 1) earn getting in the playoffs 2) deserve this line? The answer is nothing.

after this game people will likely be wondering why Alabama wasn’t in. This OSU team just isn’t elite.

 

[phokingood]

I love all the positive back and forth. This is how it should be BOL to all and happy new year !

 

[XENO]

All I’m saying is joe public is all over Georgia but sharps are big contention nowadays -they cleaned up early in bowls but got beat up last 7 or so -guess it even out - I’d still say line should move up but who knows

 

[cigar]

Line is 6 cause sharps and wiseguys taking Ohio st but public is like 7-1 on Georgia -however some big services on Ohio + juice is going up early on buckeyes -look for line to change later on and that should give a clue

but you gotta be careful deciphering sharp from contrarian. Sharps dont want osu

 

[DocHolliday]

Ohio St Offense is the most dangerous offense if the playoffs
If anyone can give Georgia a problem it is them

You do have the option of taking Georgia to win the title at -145 instead of -240 or higher just today
If Georgia wins today I have a very hard time believing they lose to TCU or Michigan

Disagree. Georgia is the most dangerous offense. OSU piled up numbers against bad teams or teams that couldn’t match up talent wise. They scored 23 on Michigan’s be 21 on Notre dame.

Georgia most consistent and most dynamic in that they can beat you in multiple ways. Georgia pulled foot off the gas or played to their defense in more than a handful of games this year. The entire Tennessee second half against Tennessee they only attempted 3 passes. They don’t play for style points but they are the most dangerous offense IMO

 

[exploited17]

Maybe. I just mean most dangerous to go against Georgia

 

[Serbone]

SEC has done well in playoffs lately, Big 10 has gotten blown out a lot, look it up.
Sagarrin SOS Georgia 27, Ohio St 45.
It is easier to get thru the Big 10 schedule than the brutal SEC (Miss, Miss St, So Caro, LSU, Bama, FLA, Ky, Ark) week to week back to back you can get burned), the top teams in the playoffs from the SEC have gotten there, there is no comparison, it is significant.
Elite teams from the SEC will cover in the big bowl games, except with all the opt outs/transfers, Ky is a ???
Tennessee comfortably, Bama today, and Georgia by 16-21.
GL!

 

[z71454]

I don't know what side I like best but kentucky gave ga all they could handle if kentucky had a decent qb they could have beat ga. So ga is beatable and Ohio st shows up for whole 60 minutes they have a very good chance to win. No mistakes and they can win

just my opinion

 

[ftkl69]

Best of luck Doc as I'm on the other side in this one both ATS and ML. I'm not sure Georgia's schedule was that much tougher than Ohio State. At the end of the day Georgia has only played 3 ranked teams as well.