Hello Everyone. This is my first post and I wanted to share Northcoast Sports paid picks. I have been an Executive Club member since the beginning of the season. Good Luck and Happy New Year to all!
Top pick 4* on LSU
3* Hou
3* Pit under
Top Opinion: Minn
Top Opinion: BC under (triple play)
Opinion: Van
Opinion: Org St
Double Totals Play: Hou over
Single Totals Play: LSU over
Single Totals Play: Minn under
Top pick 4* on LSU
3* Hou
3* Pit under
Top Opinion: Minn
Top Opinion: BC under (triple play)
Opinion: Van
Opinion: Org St
Double Totals Play: Hou over
Single Totals Play: LSU over
Single Totals Play: Minn under
cut and pasted... all 4 out of 5 units....liebman's are private players
NCAA College Football
Adam H. Meyer
[Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 12:00 PM]
Houston U (-3 1/2 Points) vs. Air Force
(Armed Forces Bowl - ESPNAMON G. CARTER Stadium - Fort Worth, TX)
Simply put…Houston has too much firepower for Air Force. QB Case Keenum for the Cougars was the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year and totaled almost 5,000 yards of offense. Air Force has a good enough defense for the Mountain West Conference, but the kind of offense that Houston will throw at them is another thing all together. Houston will score early and often and win this one easily.
Play: Houston U (-3 1/2 Points)
Adam H. Meyer
[Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 2:00 PM]
Oregon State (-2 Points) vs. Pittsburgh
(Sun Bowl - CBSSUN Bowl Stadium - El Paso, TX)
Simply put…Houston has too much firepower for Air Force. QB Case Keenum for the Cougars was the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year and totaled almost 5,000 yards of offense. Air Force has a good enough defense for the Mountain West Conference, but the kind of offense that Houston will throw at them is another thing all together. Houston will score early and often and win this one easily.
Play: Oregon State (-2 Points)
Adam H. Meyer
[Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 6:00 PM]
Minnesota (+9 Points) vs. Kansas
(Insight Bowl - NFL NETWORKSUN DEVIL Stadium - Tempe, AZ)
Kansas has shown it cannot stop a multi-dimensional QB-one who can both run and pass effectively-all year long. Enter Minnesota’s QB, Adam Weber who is the team’s second -leading rusher and who has completed over 62% of his passes. Minnesota can match Kansas through the air and Eric Decker, the Gophers’ best receiver with over 950 yard receiving should have a big day against a porous Kansas pass defense. Kansas will score some points here, but Minnesota is more balanced on offense.
Play: Minnesota (+9 Points)
New Jersey Devils (+110) at Dallas Stars
The Devils have played great defense all year and now have put together back-to-back 4-goal efforts as well. Back-up goalie Scott Clemmensen has been sensational as a fill-in for Martin Brodeur. He’s 13-5-1 with a 2.19 GAA. The Devils are one of 3 Eastern Conference teams giving up less than 90 goals so far this season. Dallas on the other hand ranks 27th in the NHL in defense.
Play: New Jersey Devils (+110)
Liebman (27-21, 1-2 yesterday)
mich st (cbb)
wisc (cbb)
gl
NCAA College Football
Adam H. Meyer
[Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 12:00 PM]
Houston U (-3 1/2 Points) vs. Air Force
(Armed Forces Bowl - ESPNAMON G. CARTER Stadium - Fort Worth, TX)
Simply put…Houston has too much firepower for Air Force. QB Case Keenum for the Cougars was the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year and totaled almost 5,000 yards of offense. Air Force has a good enough defense for the Mountain West Conference, but the kind of offense that Houston will throw at them is another thing all together. Houston will score early and often and win this one easily.
Play: Houston U (-3 1/2 Points)
Adam H. Meyer
[Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 2:00 PM]
Oregon State (-2 Points) vs. Pittsburgh
(Sun Bowl - CBSSUN Bowl Stadium - El Paso, TX)
Simply put…Houston has too much firepower for Air Force. QB Case Keenum for the Cougars was the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year and totaled almost 5,000 yards of offense. Air Force has a good enough defense for the Mountain West Conference, but the kind of offense that Houston will throw at them is another thing all together. Houston will score early and often and win this one easily.
Play: Oregon State (-2 Points)
Adam H. Meyer
[Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 6:00 PM]
Minnesota (+9 Points) vs. Kansas
(Insight Bowl - NFL NETWORKSUN DEVIL Stadium - Tempe, AZ)
Kansas has shown it cannot stop a multi-dimensional QB-one who can both run and pass effectively-all year long. Enter Minnesota’s QB, Adam Weber who is the team’s second -leading rusher and who has completed over 62% of his passes. Minnesota can match Kansas through the air and Eric Decker, the Gophers’ best receiver with over 950 yard receiving should have a big day against a porous Kansas pass defense. Kansas will score some points here, but Minnesota is more balanced on offense.
Play: Minnesota (+9 Points)
New Jersey Devils (+110) at Dallas Stars
The Devils have played great defense all year and now have put together back-to-back 4-goal efforts as well. Back-up goalie Scott Clemmensen has been sensational as a fill-in for Martin Brodeur. He’s 13-5-1 with a 2.19 GAA. The Devils are one of 3 Eastern Conference teams giving up less than 90 goals so far this season. Dallas on the other hand ranks 27th in the NHL in defense.
Play: New Jersey Devils (+110)
Liebman (27-21, 1-2 yesterday)
mich st (cbb)
wisc (cbb)
gl
Last edited:
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
ARMED FORCES BOWL
Air Force (8-4, 7-4 ATS) vs. Houston (7-5, 4-7 ATS) (at Fort Worth, Texas)
Air Force and Houston hook up for the second time this season, this time in the Armed Forces Bowl at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
These schools were originally scheduled to meet on Sept. 13 at Houston’s Robertson Stadium, but because of the impending arrival of Hurricane Ike, the game was switched to SMU’s campus stadium in Dallas. Air Force jumped out to a 31-7 lead and held on for a 31-28 victory as a 2½-point road underdog. Houston actually had a 534-380 edge in total offense, with all 380 of Air Force’s yards coming on the ground as the Falcons went 0-for-7 passing in the game.
After the loss to Air Force, Houston went to Colorado State and stumbled 28-25 as a six-point road favorite, but from there the Cougars closed the regular season on a 6-2 surge (4-4 ATS). However, a season-ending 56-42 loss at Rice as a 3½-point road favorite Nov. 29 cost the Cougars the Conference USA West Division title.
The Falcons had a roller-coaster season, as they followed up the win over Houston with consecutive losses to Utah and Navy by a total of 13 points, then went on a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) before concluding with blowout losses to BYU (38-24 as a three-point home underdog) and TCU (44-10 as a 20½-point road pup).
This is Air Force’s second straight trip to the Armed Forces Bowl. Last year, in coach Troy Calhoun’s first season with the Academy, the Falcons built a 21-0 lead against Cal but couldn’t close the deal, falling 42-36 as a four-point underdog. Meanwhile, this is Houston’s fourth consecutive bowl appearance and its fifth in the last six years, but the Cougars are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last four postseason contests, including last year’s 20-13 loss to TCU as a 6½-point underdog in the Texas Bowl.
Air Force puts up 26.7 points and 348.8 total yards per outing, and the Falcons ranked fifth in the nation in rushing at 268.8 yards per game (4.5 per carry). However, they were held to 24 points or less in four of their final five contests.
Houston led the nation in total offense at 575.1 yards per game, ranked second in passing offense (417.3 ypg) and 10th in scoring offense (41.2 points per game). Sophomore QB Case Keenum completed 67.3 percent of his passes for an NCAA-best 4,761 yards with 43 TDs (2nd best in the nation) and just 10 INTs. The Cougars scored at least 41 points in seven of their final eight contests.
Defensively, Air Force gives up only 21.2 points and 335.3 total yards per game, including 195.7 passing ypg. Meanwhile, the Cougars surrendered 31.2 points and 418.6 total yards per game, including 169.5 rushing ypg (4.2 per carry), and over its last six games, Houston allowed 30 points or more five times.
Houston is mired in ATS funks of 4-12 overall, 0-9 away from home (0-6 this year), 0-6 when laying points on the highway, 2-9 as a favorite in any location, 0-4 at neutral sites, 0-4 in non-conference play and 2-6 against winning teams. Air Force is on positive pointspread stretches of 14-5 overall, 13-5 on grass, 6-2 against Conference USA foes and 4-1 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points, but the Falcons have failed to cash in nine of their last 13 against winning teams.
For Air Force, the over is on runs of 10-4 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 4-0 as an underdog and 6-1 in December. Also, Houston is on “over” streaks of 5-0 against winning teams and 4-1 in December, and this year’s Falcons-Cougars clash in Dallas soared over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: AIR FORCE and OVER
SUN BOWL
(18) Pittsburgh (9-3, 6-5-1 ATS) vs. (24) Oregon State (8-4 SU and ATS) (at El Paso, Texas)
After blowing a chance for its first Rose Bowl berth in more than 40 years, Oregon State had to settle for a date with Pitt at the Sun Bowl in El Paso.
Needing a win in their season finale against archrival Oregon to clinch the Pac-10 title and their first Rose Bowl berth since 1964, the Beavers got steamrolled 65-38 as a 2½-point home chalk. In addition to allowing a season high in points, Oregon State gave up 694 total yards, including 385 rushing yards. In fact, the Beavers got outgained 385-89 on the ground, and the loss snapped their six-game SU winning streak and halted an 8-1 ATS run.
The Panthers closed out the regular season with a pair of upset victories over West Virginia (19-15 as a three-point home underdog) and UConn (34-10 as a one-point road pup) to finish with their first nine-win season since 1982. Pitt won eight of its final 10 games, went 6-2 ATS down the stretch and held seven of its last 11 opponents to 21 points or less.
These teams last squared off in the 2002 Insight Bowl, with Oregon State rolling to a 38-13 victory as a 2½-point underdog. The Beavers are 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in postseason play under coach Mike Riley, including a 39-38 victory over Missouri in the 2006 Sun Bowl, but they fell short as a 3½-point favorite. Pitt is making its first bowl appearance under coach Dave Wannstedt and its first since a 35-7 loss to Utah in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowls.
Pitt averaged 29 points and 356 yards per game on offense, with the catalyst being sophomore RB LeSean McCoy, who averaged had 1,398 rushing yards (4.9 per carry), and his 21 TDs are tied for second in the nation. Last year, McCoy had 1,328 rushing yards (4.8 per carry) and 14 rushing TDs. QB Bill Stull passed for 2,308 yards (59.3 percent completion rate), but his nine TDs were offset by nine INTs.
Oregon State put up 32.8 points and 418.3 total yards per game, including 165 rushing yards per game (4.3 per carry). QB Lyle Moevao was the starter for most of the season, completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 2,196 yards, with 19 TDs and 11 INTs. In the season finale against Oregon, the junior threw five TD passes, but his two INTs were returned for touchdowns. True freshman RB Jacquizz Rodgers (1,216 rushing yards, 5.6 ypc, 11 TDs) was second in the Pac-10 in rushing, but he missed the Oregon game and is doubtful today because of injury.
Both teams are fairly even defensively, with Oregon State yielding 25 points and 323 yards per game (134.5 rushing ypg), and the Panthers giving up 23 points and 320.8 yards per contest (127.8 rushing ypg).
Pitt went 5-1 on the highway this year (4-2 ATS), while Oregon State started the year with three straight road losses (1-2 ATS), but went 3-0 SU and 4-0 ATS away from home down the stretch.
In addition to its 8-2 ATS run overall, Oregon State is on pointspread streaks of 11-2 on artificial turf, 5-1 in December, 5-1 in bowl games, 7-1 after a double-digit home loss, 4-1 against winning teams, 6-2 after a non-cover and 21-9-1 as a favorite, but the Beavers are 1-4 ATS in their last five when laying a field goal or less. Pitt is on ATS stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 9-3 as an underdog, 8-3 on the highway since the start of last season, 5-2 in December and 6-2 on artificial turf, but the Panthers are 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven non-league games.
For Pitt, the under is on runs of 7-3 as an underdog, 7-3 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 as an underdog of three points or less. The under is also 7-3 in Oregon State’s last 10 non-conference games, but otherwise the Beavers are on “over” stretches of 4-1 in bowl games, 8-3 versus winning teams and 6-2 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE
MUSIC CITY BOWL
Boston College (8-4, 7-5 ATS) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6, 7-5 ATS) (at Nashville, Tenn.)
Boston College looks to extend the nation’s longest bowl winning streak when it battles Vanderbilt, which is making its first bowl appearance since 1982.
The Eagles rode a regular season-ending four-game SU and ATS winning streak to their second straight ACC Atlantic Division title, but for the second straight year they fell apart in the ACC Championship Game against Virginia Tech, this time losing 30-12 as a one-point underdog. It was just the third time this year that Boston College gave up more than 27 points.
Vanderbilt qualified for its first bowl game in 26 years despite losing six of its final seven games after a 5-0 SU and ATS start. In the season finale on Nov. 29, the Commodores went to Wake Forest and fell 23-10 as a four-point underdog in a non-conference clash. Vandy’s shaky offense produced 14 points or less (nine total TDs) in seven of its final eight games, going 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS during this stretch.
Boston College, which is in its 10th straight bowl game, knocked off Michigan State 24-21 in last year’s Citrus Bowl for its eighth straight postseason win (6-2 ATS), the longest current bowl winning streak. However, the Eagles came up short as a five-point favorite against the Spartans. One of Boston College’s recent postseason victories came in the 2001 Music City Bowl, a 20-16 triumph over Georgia as a four-point underdog.
The Eagles scored at least 21 points in 10 of their 13 games and finished averaging 25.5 points and 318.9 yards per contest, including 143.5 rushing ypg. Chris Crane (10 TDs, 13 INTs) started the year at quarterback but was lost for the season with a broken collarbone on Nov. 15. Freshman Domonique Davis took over under center and completed just 47.1 percent of his passes for 551 yards and four TDs.
Vanderbilt put up only 19.4 points and 261 total ypg, including a woeful 122.8 passing ypg. QBs Mackenzi Adams and Chris Nickson split time under center and combined to complete less than 50 percent of their throws for 1,426 yards, with 13 TDs and 11 INTs.
Both squads field rock-solid defenses. Boston College ranks in the Top 20 nationally in scoring defense (18.5 ppg, 19th), total defense (273.3 ypg, 6th), rushing defense (92.2 ypg, 7th) and yards per carry (2.9, tied for 9th). Vanderbilt yields per-game averages of 20.1 points, 318.7 total yards and 173.7 passing yards, but it gives up 145 ypg on the ground (3.8 per carry).
Boston College is 4-1 SU in its last five as a favorite, but 1-8 ATS in its last nine as a chalk away from home. Also, although they’ve cashed in six of their last eight bowl games, the Eagles are just 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral-site contests, 3-5 ATS in their last eight on grass and 0-4 ATS in their last four in December.
Vandy is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 as an underdog away from home and 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a pup in any locale, including 6-2 ATS when catching points this season, with three outright upsets on the highway. The Commodores are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight against winning teams.
For Boston College, the over is on runs of 7-2 overall and 5-1 as a favorite, but the under is 4-1 in its last five non-conference games and 12-5 in its last 17 on grass. Meanwhile, the Commodores sport nothing but “under” runs, including, 7-2 overall, 7-3 on grass, 11-4-1 as an underdog and 11-5-1 against winning teams.
This is just the third meeting between these schools, with the last coming in 1963.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE and UNDER
INSIGHT BOWL
Minnesota (7-5, 7-4 ATS) vs. Kansas (7-5, 6-5 ATS) (at Tempe, Ariz.)
Minnesota limps into its first postseason game since appearing in the 2006 Insight Bowl when it clashes with Kansas, which is going bowling for the third time in the last four seasons.
The Golden Gophers jumped out to a 7-1 start, with their only loss coming at Ohio State, but they fell flat on their faces down the stretch, losing their final four games (1-3 ATS) by a combined tally of 143-55. The worst of the four losses came in the regular-season finale against Iowa, a 55-0 whitewashing as a seven-point home favorite. In losing to the Hawkeyes, the Gophers were outgained 483-134, including 222-7 on the ground and 261-127 in the air.
Kansas endured a late-season 1-4 swoon, which included three losses to Top 10 Big 12 foes Oklahoma (45-31), Texas Tech (63-21) and Texas (35-7). But the Jayhawks got off the deck in their season finale Nov. 29 and pulled out a thrilling 40-37 victory over archrival Missouri in Kansas City, cashing as a 16-point underdog. QB Todd Reesing threw a game-winning 26-yard TD pass on fourth down with 27 seconds left, and the teams combined for 916 yards of total offense (438 for Kansas).
The Jayhawks earned an at-large BCS berth last year and took full advantage, knocking off Virginia Tech 24-21 as a three-point underdog in the Orange Bowl to cap a 12-1 season. Kansas is 2-1 SU and ATS in bowl games under coach Mark Mangino.
Minnesota suffered one of the biggest collapses in recent bowl memory in its last postseason appearance, blowing a 31-point lead in losing 44-41 to Texas Tech in the 2006 Insight Bowl, though the Gophers cashed as a seven-point underdog. The Gophers are 3-0 ATS in their last three bowl games as an underdog, and each of their last four postseason contests was decided by four points or less.
With Reesing (65.7 percent, 3,573 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs) running the show, the Jayhawks averaged 32.7 points and 431 total yards per game (129 rushing ypg). The only teams to hold Kansas under 29 points were Texas and Texas Tech. Defensively, after giving up a total of 10 points in season-opening wins over Florida International and Louisiana Tech, the Jayhawks allowed 33 points or more seven times in their final 10 games, including an average of 41 ppg in their final five outings.
The Gophers were held to 17 points or fewer in four of their last five games and finished the year averaging 23.4 ppg and 322.2 ypg (105.8 rushing ypg). Sophomore QB Adam Weber took all the snaps under center, completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 2,585 yards, with 14 TDs and eight INTs. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota held five of its first seven foes to 20 points or less, but during their season-ending four-game slide, the Gophers gave up an average of 35.8 ppg.
Kansas is on ATS runs of 12-7 overall, 15-4 as a favorite (3-3 ATS as a chalk this season), 5-0 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, 7-1 in non-conference games, 10-4 versus winning teams and 4-1 on grass. Minnesota is on pointspread streaks of 7-3 overall, 5-2 on grass and 6-1 as an underdog, including 4-1 ATS as a pup this season. However, the Golden Gophers have failed to cover in 17 of their last 25 games when catching between 3½ and 10 points.
The over for Kansas is on tears of 5-1 overall, 5-0 away from home this season and 4-0 on grass, but the under is 5-2 in its last seven as a favorite. Minnesota has stayed low in five of its last seven contests overall, but the over is 8-1 in the Gophers’ last nine non-league games and 5-1 in its last six as an underdog.
These schools have split six previous meetings on the gridiron, the last being in 1973.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
LSU (7-5, 2-9 ATS) vs. (14) Georgia Tech (9-3, 8-2 ATS) (at Atlanta)
One season after capturing its second national championship of the decade, LSU finds itself relegated to this New Year’s Eve contest against red-hot Georgia Tech, which is playing just two miles from its home stadium in Atlanta.
The Tigers defeated Ohio State 38-24 as a 3½-point favorite in last year’s BCS Championship Game at the Superdome for their second national title since 2003. But after jumping out to a 4-0 start (1-2 ATS) this season, Les Miles’ squad hit the skids, going 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS, including six straight non-covers to close the year. In a fitting end to a disappointing season, LSU went to Arkansas on Nov. 28 and gave up a 24-yard TD pass on fourth down with 21 seconds to play to turn a 30-24 win into a 31-30 loss.
Georgia Tech capped a breakthrough season under first-year coach Paul Johnson with impressive season-ending wins over Miami (41-23 as a three-point home favorite) and rival Georgia (45-42 as a 7½-point road underdog). In the two victories, the Yellow Jackets set season records for points and racked up an astounding 881 rushing yards. In fact, they outgained Miami and Georgia on the ground by a combined 625 yards.
These schools last met in the 2000 Peach Bowl, with LSU upsetting No. 15 Georgia Tech 28-14 as an 8½-point underdog. However, the Jackets are 12-6 SU all-time in this series.
Ten of the last 16 ACC-SEC matchups in the Chick-fil-A Bowl have been decided by a touchdown or less.
Georgia Tech is in its 12th straight bowl game and is 22-14 all-time, but 0-3 SU (1-2 ATS) in the last three, including last year’s 40-28 loss to Fresno State as a 5½-point favorite in the Humanitarian Bowl. Meanwhile, the Tigers have set a school record with their ninth consecutive bowl appearance, and they’ve won and covered all three postseason games under Miles.
The Yellow Jackets averaged 26.2 ppg, and even though they netted just 95 passing ypg, their triple-option attack ranked third in the nation with 282.3 rushing ypg and sixth in yards per carry (5.6). RBs Jonathan Dwyer (1,328 yards, 7 ypc, 12 TDs) and Roddy Jones (651 yards, 9.3 ypc, 4 TDs) led the ground attack, and sophomore QB Josh Nesbitt contributed 1,289 combined rushing and receiving yards and nine combined TDs, while throwing four INTs.
LSU put up 30.3 points and 371.8 total yards per game (167.2 rushing ypg), and the Tigers scored 30 points or more seven times. Injuries at QB forced Miles to go with Jarrett Lee for much of the season, and the sophomore struggled, completing 53.2 percent of his throws for 1,873 yards, with 13 TDs and a whopping 16 INTs, seven of which were returned for touchdowns.
Georgia Tech allowed just 18.8 points and 312.7 total yards per game (116.9 rushing ypg), while the Tigers got torched for 26 points on just 326.5 total yards per outing (105.8 rushing ypg). Both teams gave up an average of 31 points and more than 395 yards in their final three games, with LSU allowing exactly 31 in its last three.
LSU has been a pointspread disaster recently, going 4-16-2 ATS in its last 22 overall, 0-4 ATS in its last four as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in its last four against winning teams. However, the Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last eight December outings and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 non-SEC contests.
Conversely, in addition to its 8-2 ATS record for the season, Georgia Tech is on pointspread runs of 5-1 as a favorite, 11-5-1 in non-conference games and 4-1 after a spread-cover, though the Jackets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in December.
The over for LSU is on runs of 15-5 overall, 7-1 away from home, 5-2 in bowl games, 11-3 against winning teams and 10-4 following a pointspread setback. And the over for Georgia Tech is on streaks of 6-0 in bowl games, 5-0 with the Jackets a favorite, 4-1 at neutral sites, 4-0 in non-conference play and 4-1 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(10) Michigan State (9-2, 4-4 ATS) at (21) Minnesota (12-0, 5-2 ATS)
After blowing through its non-conference schedule with a perfect record, Minnesota tips off its Big Ten season with a tough early-afternoon matchup against 10th-ranked Michigan State.
The Gophers are off to their best start in 60 years, and they capped their non-conference season with their most dominant win to date, routing High Point 82-56 in a non-lined home game. Three of Minnesota’s last four wins have come against non-lined competition, with the one exception being a surprising 70-64 upset of then-No. 9 Louisville as a nine-point underdog on a neutral court in Glendale, Ariz., two weeks ago. The last time Minnesota started a season with 13 straight wins was in 1948-49.
Since any ugly 98-63 loss to North Carolina as a 10-point underdog in Detroit on Dec. 3, Michigan State has ripped off five straight wins (2-1 ATS in lined action). The Spartans followed up a 67-63 upset win over Texas as a 5½-point underdog with Saturday’s 82-66 rout of Oakland in a non-lined game. Seven of Michigan State’s nine non-conference victories were by double digits.
The Spartans have won three straight meetings against Minnesota and eight of the last nine, going just 5-4 ATS during this stretch. Last year, Michigan State prevailed 65-59 as an 11-point home chalk and 78-73 as a one-point road favorite. The host has cashed in 10 of the last 14 meetings, with the Gophers going 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes in Minnesota.
Minnesota, which has scored 80 points or more in four of its last eight games, averages 74.8 ppg while making 48.1 percent of its shots, and the Gophers surrender 61.6 ppg on 38.6 percent shooting. Meanwhile, Michigan State has scored 75 or more in six games, including four of the last five, and the Spartans net 79.5 ppg (49 percent shooting) and give up 68 ppg (41.6 percent).
Michigan State closed out last season on a 4-1 ATS run in Big Ten action, but Tom Izzo’s team is just 1-5 ATS in its last six lined games following a SU win. The Gophers have cashed in four straight lined contests (all at home), but they ended last year in a 1-4 ATS slump against Big Ten foes.
The under is on runs of 4-1 for the Spartans overall, 5-2 for the Spartans on the road, 4-1 for the Spartans after a SU win, 16-5 for Minnesota overall, 35-17 for Minnesota at home and 7-0 for Minnesota in league play. Finally, five of the last seven series meetings have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER
Wisconsin (9-3, 5-5 ATS) at (23) Michigan (10-2, 6-1 ATS)
Off to a surprising start after finishing 12 games under .500 last year, Michigan opens Big Ten play with a battle against Wisconsin, which is looking to defend its Big Ten regular-season crown.
The Wolverines closed out non-conference play with five straight victories, the first being a shocking 81-73 upset of then-No. 4 and unbeaten Duke as a 10-point home underdog. That victory came just two weeks after Michigan lost 71-56 to the Blue Devils at Madison Square Garden in New York. The Wolverines’ only other loss came in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, a 75-70 setback at Maryland as a 5½-point underdog. Since beating Duke, Michigan has posted four blowout wins by margins of 31, 13, 17 and 20 points.
Wisconsin has been idle since Dec. 23, when it fell to ninth-ranked Texas 74-69 as a one-point home favorite. Since starting out 4-0, the Badgers have gone 5-3 in their last eight games (4-3 ATS), with all three defeats coming against the only ranked teams they’ve faced (Texas, Marquette and UConn). Bo Ryan’s team averaged only 61.3 ppg in its three losses.
Wisconsin has won eight of the last 10 against the Wolverines, including a current four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS). On its way to the Big Ten regular-season title last year, the Badgers beat Michigan three times, winning 70-54 as an 8½-point road chalk, 64-61 as 17½-point home favorite and 51-34 as a 13-point favorite in the Big Ten Tournament. The SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, the host is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six.
The Badgers allow opponents to shoot 43 percent from the field, but they’re still only allowing 59.7 ppg, holding nine of 12 foes to 61 points or less. Offensively, Wisconsin has scored more than 70 points just three times. Michigan averages 74.8 ppg (44.7 percent shooting) and gives up 62.2 ppg (40.4 percent), but during its five-game winning streak, John Beilein’s squad has outscored its opponents by 18 ppg (83-65).
The Badgers are on ATS streaks of 7-1 in Big Ten play, 6-2 on the road (3-2 this year), 5-1 after an outright loss, 6-0 after a non-cover and 7-1 when playing on Wednesday. Michigan has cashed in all four home games this season, but it ended last year in pointspread funks of 1-4 in conference play and 1-7-1 on Wednesday.
The under is on runs of 12-5 for Michigan overall, 10-1 for Michigan in Big Ten action, 20-8 for Wisconsin in league play and 5-1 for Wisconsin following a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WISCONSIN and UNDER
NBA
Denver (20-12, 17-14-1 ATS) at Toronto (12-19, 11-19-1 ATS)
The Raptors return from a rough Western Conference road swing to take on another non-conference opponent in the Nuggets, who continue a four-game road trip with a stop at the Air Canada Centre.
Toronto lost to Golden State 117-111 as a 1½-point road chalk Monday night for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback, capping a six-game trip with a 2-4 SU mark (2-3-1 ATS). Chris Bosh (30 points, 14 rebounds) and Jose Calderon (21 points, 16 assists) had big nights, and the Raptors outrebounded the Warriors 49-37. But Golden State hit 50 percent overall from the floor and 50 percent on 3-pointers (12 of 24), while also knocking down 29 of 33 free throws.
Denver got drubbed at Atlanta 109-91 as a five-point road pup Monday, halting a two-game SU surge. The Nuggets had five players in double figures, but they topped out at Kenyon Martin’s 19-point effort. The game was won from long distance, as Denver went just 5 of 15 from 3-point range, while allowing the Hawks to knock down 12 of 23 attempts from beyond the arc.
Denver has won and covered in the last three meetings with Toronto, including a 132-93 wipeout as a five-point home favorite at the beginning of December – easily the Raptors’ worst defeat of the season so far. The Nuggets are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to the Air Canada Centre.
The Raptors are on a bundle of ATS slides, including 20-41-1 overall, 3-11 at home 1-8 against the Northwest Division, 1-4-1 after a SU loss, 8-22-1 against winning teams and 7-19-1 against the West. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are on a 2-6 ATS purge overall and are just 1-4 ATS in their last five roadies, but they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 4-0 when playing on one day’s rest, 8-3 as a favorite of less than six points and 11-1 against the Atlantic Division (only non-cover coming at Atlanta on Monday).
The over is 4-1 in Toronto’s last five overall and 6-1 in Denver’s last seven non-conference contests, but the under has hit in the Raptors’ last four home games and is on further runs for Toronto of 5-1 after a day off and 7-3 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is on a 4-1-1 stretch in games played in Toronto.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
ARMED FORCES BOWL
Air Force (8-4, 7-4 ATS) vs. Houston (7-5, 4-7 ATS) (at Fort Worth, Texas)
Air Force and Houston hook up for the second time this season, this time in the Armed Forces Bowl at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
These schools were originally scheduled to meet on Sept. 13 at Houston’s Robertson Stadium, but because of the impending arrival of Hurricane Ike, the game was switched to SMU’s campus stadium in Dallas. Air Force jumped out to a 31-7 lead and held on for a 31-28 victory as a 2½-point road underdog. Houston actually had a 534-380 edge in total offense, with all 380 of Air Force’s yards coming on the ground as the Falcons went 0-for-7 passing in the game.
After the loss to Air Force, Houston went to Colorado State and stumbled 28-25 as a six-point road favorite, but from there the Cougars closed the regular season on a 6-2 surge (4-4 ATS). However, a season-ending 56-42 loss at Rice as a 3½-point road favorite Nov. 29 cost the Cougars the Conference USA West Division title.
The Falcons had a roller-coaster season, as they followed up the win over Houston with consecutive losses to Utah and Navy by a total of 13 points, then went on a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) before concluding with blowout losses to BYU (38-24 as a three-point home underdog) and TCU (44-10 as a 20½-point road pup).
This is Air Force’s second straight trip to the Armed Forces Bowl. Last year, in coach Troy Calhoun’s first season with the Academy, the Falcons built a 21-0 lead against Cal but couldn’t close the deal, falling 42-36 as a four-point underdog. Meanwhile, this is Houston’s fourth consecutive bowl appearance and its fifth in the last six years, but the Cougars are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last four postseason contests, including last year’s 20-13 loss to TCU as a 6½-point underdog in the Texas Bowl.
Air Force puts up 26.7 points and 348.8 total yards per outing, and the Falcons ranked fifth in the nation in rushing at 268.8 yards per game (4.5 per carry). However, they were held to 24 points or less in four of their final five contests.
Houston led the nation in total offense at 575.1 yards per game, ranked second in passing offense (417.3 ypg) and 10th in scoring offense (41.2 points per game). Sophomore QB Case Keenum completed 67.3 percent of his passes for an NCAA-best 4,761 yards with 43 TDs (2nd best in the nation) and just 10 INTs. The Cougars scored at least 41 points in seven of their final eight contests.
Defensively, Air Force gives up only 21.2 points and 335.3 total yards per game, including 195.7 passing ypg. Meanwhile, the Cougars surrendered 31.2 points and 418.6 total yards per game, including 169.5 rushing ypg (4.2 per carry), and over its last six games, Houston allowed 30 points or more five times.
Houston is mired in ATS funks of 4-12 overall, 0-9 away from home (0-6 this year), 0-6 when laying points on the highway, 2-9 as a favorite in any location, 0-4 at neutral sites, 0-4 in non-conference play and 2-6 against winning teams. Air Force is on positive pointspread stretches of 14-5 overall, 13-5 on grass, 6-2 against Conference USA foes and 4-1 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points, but the Falcons have failed to cash in nine of their last 13 against winning teams.
For Air Force, the over is on runs of 10-4 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 4-0 as an underdog and 6-1 in December. Also, Houston is on “over” streaks of 5-0 against winning teams and 4-1 in December, and this year’s Falcons-Cougars clash in Dallas soared over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: AIR FORCE and OVER
SUN BOWL
(18) Pittsburgh (9-3, 6-5-1 ATS) vs. (24) Oregon State (8-4 SU and ATS) (at El Paso, Texas)
After blowing a chance for its first Rose Bowl berth in more than 40 years, Oregon State had to settle for a date with Pitt at the Sun Bowl in El Paso.
Needing a win in their season finale against archrival Oregon to clinch the Pac-10 title and their first Rose Bowl berth since 1964, the Beavers got steamrolled 65-38 as a 2½-point home chalk. In addition to allowing a season high in points, Oregon State gave up 694 total yards, including 385 rushing yards. In fact, the Beavers got outgained 385-89 on the ground, and the loss snapped their six-game SU winning streak and halted an 8-1 ATS run.
The Panthers closed out the regular season with a pair of upset victories over West Virginia (19-15 as a three-point home underdog) and UConn (34-10 as a one-point road pup) to finish with their first nine-win season since 1982. Pitt won eight of its final 10 games, went 6-2 ATS down the stretch and held seven of its last 11 opponents to 21 points or less.
These teams last squared off in the 2002 Insight Bowl, with Oregon State rolling to a 38-13 victory as a 2½-point underdog. The Beavers are 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in postseason play under coach Mike Riley, including a 39-38 victory over Missouri in the 2006 Sun Bowl, but they fell short as a 3½-point favorite. Pitt is making its first bowl appearance under coach Dave Wannstedt and its first since a 35-7 loss to Utah in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowls.
Pitt averaged 29 points and 356 yards per game on offense, with the catalyst being sophomore RB LeSean McCoy, who averaged had 1,398 rushing yards (4.9 per carry), and his 21 TDs are tied for second in the nation. Last year, McCoy had 1,328 rushing yards (4.8 per carry) and 14 rushing TDs. QB Bill Stull passed for 2,308 yards (59.3 percent completion rate), but his nine TDs were offset by nine INTs.
Oregon State put up 32.8 points and 418.3 total yards per game, including 165 rushing yards per game (4.3 per carry). QB Lyle Moevao was the starter for most of the season, completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 2,196 yards, with 19 TDs and 11 INTs. In the season finale against Oregon, the junior threw five TD passes, but his two INTs were returned for touchdowns. True freshman RB Jacquizz Rodgers (1,216 rushing yards, 5.6 ypc, 11 TDs) was second in the Pac-10 in rushing, but he missed the Oregon game and is doubtful today because of injury.
Both teams are fairly even defensively, with Oregon State yielding 25 points and 323 yards per game (134.5 rushing ypg), and the Panthers giving up 23 points and 320.8 yards per contest (127.8 rushing ypg).
Pitt went 5-1 on the highway this year (4-2 ATS), while Oregon State started the year with three straight road losses (1-2 ATS), but went 3-0 SU and 4-0 ATS away from home down the stretch.
In addition to its 8-2 ATS run overall, Oregon State is on pointspread streaks of 11-2 on artificial turf, 5-1 in December, 5-1 in bowl games, 7-1 after a double-digit home loss, 4-1 against winning teams, 6-2 after a non-cover and 21-9-1 as a favorite, but the Beavers are 1-4 ATS in their last five when laying a field goal or less. Pitt is on ATS stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 9-3 as an underdog, 8-3 on the highway since the start of last season, 5-2 in December and 6-2 on artificial turf, but the Panthers are 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven non-league games.
For Pitt, the under is on runs of 7-3 as an underdog, 7-3 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 as an underdog of three points or less. The under is also 7-3 in Oregon State’s last 10 non-conference games, but otherwise the Beavers are on “over” stretches of 4-1 in bowl games, 8-3 versus winning teams and 6-2 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE
MUSIC CITY BOWL
Boston College (8-4, 7-5 ATS) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6, 7-5 ATS) (at Nashville, Tenn.)
Boston College looks to extend the nation’s longest bowl winning streak when it battles Vanderbilt, which is making its first bowl appearance since 1982.
The Eagles rode a regular season-ending four-game SU and ATS winning streak to their second straight ACC Atlantic Division title, but for the second straight year they fell apart in the ACC Championship Game against Virginia Tech, this time losing 30-12 as a one-point underdog. It was just the third time this year that Boston College gave up more than 27 points.
Vanderbilt qualified for its first bowl game in 26 years despite losing six of its final seven games after a 5-0 SU and ATS start. In the season finale on Nov. 29, the Commodores went to Wake Forest and fell 23-10 as a four-point underdog in a non-conference clash. Vandy’s shaky offense produced 14 points or less (nine total TDs) in seven of its final eight games, going 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS during this stretch.
Boston College, which is in its 10th straight bowl game, knocked off Michigan State 24-21 in last year’s Citrus Bowl for its eighth straight postseason win (6-2 ATS), the longest current bowl winning streak. However, the Eagles came up short as a five-point favorite against the Spartans. One of Boston College’s recent postseason victories came in the 2001 Music City Bowl, a 20-16 triumph over Georgia as a four-point underdog.
The Eagles scored at least 21 points in 10 of their 13 games and finished averaging 25.5 points and 318.9 yards per contest, including 143.5 rushing ypg. Chris Crane (10 TDs, 13 INTs) started the year at quarterback but was lost for the season with a broken collarbone on Nov. 15. Freshman Domonique Davis took over under center and completed just 47.1 percent of his passes for 551 yards and four TDs.
Vanderbilt put up only 19.4 points and 261 total ypg, including a woeful 122.8 passing ypg. QBs Mackenzi Adams and Chris Nickson split time under center and combined to complete less than 50 percent of their throws for 1,426 yards, with 13 TDs and 11 INTs.
Both squads field rock-solid defenses. Boston College ranks in the Top 20 nationally in scoring defense (18.5 ppg, 19th), total defense (273.3 ypg, 6th), rushing defense (92.2 ypg, 7th) and yards per carry (2.9, tied for 9th). Vanderbilt yields per-game averages of 20.1 points, 318.7 total yards and 173.7 passing yards, but it gives up 145 ypg on the ground (3.8 per carry).
Boston College is 4-1 SU in its last five as a favorite, but 1-8 ATS in its last nine as a chalk away from home. Also, although they’ve cashed in six of their last eight bowl games, the Eagles are just 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral-site contests, 3-5 ATS in their last eight on grass and 0-4 ATS in their last four in December.
Vandy is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 as an underdog away from home and 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a pup in any locale, including 6-2 ATS when catching points this season, with three outright upsets on the highway. The Commodores are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight against winning teams.
For Boston College, the over is on runs of 7-2 overall and 5-1 as a favorite, but the under is 4-1 in its last five non-conference games and 12-5 in its last 17 on grass. Meanwhile, the Commodores sport nothing but “under” runs, including, 7-2 overall, 7-3 on grass, 11-4-1 as an underdog and 11-5-1 against winning teams.
This is just the third meeting between these schools, with the last coming in 1963.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE and UNDER
INSIGHT BOWL
Minnesota (7-5, 7-4 ATS) vs. Kansas (7-5, 6-5 ATS) (at Tempe, Ariz.)
Minnesota limps into its first postseason game since appearing in the 2006 Insight Bowl when it clashes with Kansas, which is going bowling for the third time in the last four seasons.
The Golden Gophers jumped out to a 7-1 start, with their only loss coming at Ohio State, but they fell flat on their faces down the stretch, losing their final four games (1-3 ATS) by a combined tally of 143-55. The worst of the four losses came in the regular-season finale against Iowa, a 55-0 whitewashing as a seven-point home favorite. In losing to the Hawkeyes, the Gophers were outgained 483-134, including 222-7 on the ground and 261-127 in the air.
Kansas endured a late-season 1-4 swoon, which included three losses to Top 10 Big 12 foes Oklahoma (45-31), Texas Tech (63-21) and Texas (35-7). But the Jayhawks got off the deck in their season finale Nov. 29 and pulled out a thrilling 40-37 victory over archrival Missouri in Kansas City, cashing as a 16-point underdog. QB Todd Reesing threw a game-winning 26-yard TD pass on fourth down with 27 seconds left, and the teams combined for 916 yards of total offense (438 for Kansas).
The Jayhawks earned an at-large BCS berth last year and took full advantage, knocking off Virginia Tech 24-21 as a three-point underdog in the Orange Bowl to cap a 12-1 season. Kansas is 2-1 SU and ATS in bowl games under coach Mark Mangino.
Minnesota suffered one of the biggest collapses in recent bowl memory in its last postseason appearance, blowing a 31-point lead in losing 44-41 to Texas Tech in the 2006 Insight Bowl, though the Gophers cashed as a seven-point underdog. The Gophers are 3-0 ATS in their last three bowl games as an underdog, and each of their last four postseason contests was decided by four points or less.
With Reesing (65.7 percent, 3,573 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs) running the show, the Jayhawks averaged 32.7 points and 431 total yards per game (129 rushing ypg). The only teams to hold Kansas under 29 points were Texas and Texas Tech. Defensively, after giving up a total of 10 points in season-opening wins over Florida International and Louisiana Tech, the Jayhawks allowed 33 points or more seven times in their final 10 games, including an average of 41 ppg in their final five outings.
The Gophers were held to 17 points or fewer in four of their last five games and finished the year averaging 23.4 ppg and 322.2 ypg (105.8 rushing ypg). Sophomore QB Adam Weber took all the snaps under center, completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 2,585 yards, with 14 TDs and eight INTs. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota held five of its first seven foes to 20 points or less, but during their season-ending four-game slide, the Gophers gave up an average of 35.8 ppg.
Kansas is on ATS runs of 12-7 overall, 15-4 as a favorite (3-3 ATS as a chalk this season), 5-0 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, 7-1 in non-conference games, 10-4 versus winning teams and 4-1 on grass. Minnesota is on pointspread streaks of 7-3 overall, 5-2 on grass and 6-1 as an underdog, including 4-1 ATS as a pup this season. However, the Golden Gophers have failed to cover in 17 of their last 25 games when catching between 3½ and 10 points.
The over for Kansas is on tears of 5-1 overall, 5-0 away from home this season and 4-0 on grass, but the under is 5-2 in its last seven as a favorite. Minnesota has stayed low in five of its last seven contests overall, but the over is 8-1 in the Gophers’ last nine non-league games and 5-1 in its last six as an underdog.
These schools have split six previous meetings on the gridiron, the last being in 1973.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
LSU (7-5, 2-9 ATS) vs. (14) Georgia Tech (9-3, 8-2 ATS) (at Atlanta)
One season after capturing its second national championship of the decade, LSU finds itself relegated to this New Year’s Eve contest against red-hot Georgia Tech, which is playing just two miles from its home stadium in Atlanta.
The Tigers defeated Ohio State 38-24 as a 3½-point favorite in last year’s BCS Championship Game at the Superdome for their second national title since 2003. But after jumping out to a 4-0 start (1-2 ATS) this season, Les Miles’ squad hit the skids, going 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS, including six straight non-covers to close the year. In a fitting end to a disappointing season, LSU went to Arkansas on Nov. 28 and gave up a 24-yard TD pass on fourth down with 21 seconds to play to turn a 30-24 win into a 31-30 loss.
Georgia Tech capped a breakthrough season under first-year coach Paul Johnson with impressive season-ending wins over Miami (41-23 as a three-point home favorite) and rival Georgia (45-42 as a 7½-point road underdog). In the two victories, the Yellow Jackets set season records for points and racked up an astounding 881 rushing yards. In fact, they outgained Miami and Georgia on the ground by a combined 625 yards.
These schools last met in the 2000 Peach Bowl, with LSU upsetting No. 15 Georgia Tech 28-14 as an 8½-point underdog. However, the Jackets are 12-6 SU all-time in this series.
Ten of the last 16 ACC-SEC matchups in the Chick-fil-A Bowl have been decided by a touchdown or less.
Georgia Tech is in its 12th straight bowl game and is 22-14 all-time, but 0-3 SU (1-2 ATS) in the last three, including last year’s 40-28 loss to Fresno State as a 5½-point favorite in the Humanitarian Bowl. Meanwhile, the Tigers have set a school record with their ninth consecutive bowl appearance, and they’ve won and covered all three postseason games under Miles.
The Yellow Jackets averaged 26.2 ppg, and even though they netted just 95 passing ypg, their triple-option attack ranked third in the nation with 282.3 rushing ypg and sixth in yards per carry (5.6). RBs Jonathan Dwyer (1,328 yards, 7 ypc, 12 TDs) and Roddy Jones (651 yards, 9.3 ypc, 4 TDs) led the ground attack, and sophomore QB Josh Nesbitt contributed 1,289 combined rushing and receiving yards and nine combined TDs, while throwing four INTs.
LSU put up 30.3 points and 371.8 total yards per game (167.2 rushing ypg), and the Tigers scored 30 points or more seven times. Injuries at QB forced Miles to go with Jarrett Lee for much of the season, and the sophomore struggled, completing 53.2 percent of his throws for 1,873 yards, with 13 TDs and a whopping 16 INTs, seven of which were returned for touchdowns.
Georgia Tech allowed just 18.8 points and 312.7 total yards per game (116.9 rushing ypg), while the Tigers got torched for 26 points on just 326.5 total yards per outing (105.8 rushing ypg). Both teams gave up an average of 31 points and more than 395 yards in their final three games, with LSU allowing exactly 31 in its last three.
LSU has been a pointspread disaster recently, going 4-16-2 ATS in its last 22 overall, 0-4 ATS in its last four as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in its last four against winning teams. However, the Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last eight December outings and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 non-SEC contests.
Conversely, in addition to its 8-2 ATS record for the season, Georgia Tech is on pointspread runs of 5-1 as a favorite, 11-5-1 in non-conference games and 4-1 after a spread-cover, though the Jackets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in December.
The over for LSU is on runs of 15-5 overall, 7-1 away from home, 5-2 in bowl games, 11-3 against winning teams and 10-4 following a pointspread setback. And the over for Georgia Tech is on streaks of 6-0 in bowl games, 5-0 with the Jackets a favorite, 4-1 at neutral sites, 4-0 in non-conference play and 4-1 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(10) Michigan State (9-2, 4-4 ATS) at (21) Minnesota (12-0, 5-2 ATS)
After blowing through its non-conference schedule with a perfect record, Minnesota tips off its Big Ten season with a tough early-afternoon matchup against 10th-ranked Michigan State.
The Gophers are off to their best start in 60 years, and they capped their non-conference season with their most dominant win to date, routing High Point 82-56 in a non-lined home game. Three of Minnesota’s last four wins have come against non-lined competition, with the one exception being a surprising 70-64 upset of then-No. 9 Louisville as a nine-point underdog on a neutral court in Glendale, Ariz., two weeks ago. The last time Minnesota started a season with 13 straight wins was in 1948-49.
Since any ugly 98-63 loss to North Carolina as a 10-point underdog in Detroit on Dec. 3, Michigan State has ripped off five straight wins (2-1 ATS in lined action). The Spartans followed up a 67-63 upset win over Texas as a 5½-point underdog with Saturday’s 82-66 rout of Oakland in a non-lined game. Seven of Michigan State’s nine non-conference victories were by double digits.
The Spartans have won three straight meetings against Minnesota and eight of the last nine, going just 5-4 ATS during this stretch. Last year, Michigan State prevailed 65-59 as an 11-point home chalk and 78-73 as a one-point road favorite. The host has cashed in 10 of the last 14 meetings, with the Gophers going 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes in Minnesota.
Minnesota, which has scored 80 points or more in four of its last eight games, averages 74.8 ppg while making 48.1 percent of its shots, and the Gophers surrender 61.6 ppg on 38.6 percent shooting. Meanwhile, Michigan State has scored 75 or more in six games, including four of the last five, and the Spartans net 79.5 ppg (49 percent shooting) and give up 68 ppg (41.6 percent).
Michigan State closed out last season on a 4-1 ATS run in Big Ten action, but Tom Izzo’s team is just 1-5 ATS in its last six lined games following a SU win. The Gophers have cashed in four straight lined contests (all at home), but they ended last year in a 1-4 ATS slump against Big Ten foes.
The under is on runs of 4-1 for the Spartans overall, 5-2 for the Spartans on the road, 4-1 for the Spartans after a SU win, 16-5 for Minnesota overall, 35-17 for Minnesota at home and 7-0 for Minnesota in league play. Finally, five of the last seven series meetings have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER
Wisconsin (9-3, 5-5 ATS) at (23) Michigan (10-2, 6-1 ATS)
Off to a surprising start after finishing 12 games under .500 last year, Michigan opens Big Ten play with a battle against Wisconsin, which is looking to defend its Big Ten regular-season crown.
The Wolverines closed out non-conference play with five straight victories, the first being a shocking 81-73 upset of then-No. 4 and unbeaten Duke as a 10-point home underdog. That victory came just two weeks after Michigan lost 71-56 to the Blue Devils at Madison Square Garden in New York. The Wolverines’ only other loss came in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, a 75-70 setback at Maryland as a 5½-point underdog. Since beating Duke, Michigan has posted four blowout wins by margins of 31, 13, 17 and 20 points.
Wisconsin has been idle since Dec. 23, when it fell to ninth-ranked Texas 74-69 as a one-point home favorite. Since starting out 4-0, the Badgers have gone 5-3 in their last eight games (4-3 ATS), with all three defeats coming against the only ranked teams they’ve faced (Texas, Marquette and UConn). Bo Ryan’s team averaged only 61.3 ppg in its three losses.
Wisconsin has won eight of the last 10 against the Wolverines, including a current four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS). On its way to the Big Ten regular-season title last year, the Badgers beat Michigan three times, winning 70-54 as an 8½-point road chalk, 64-61 as 17½-point home favorite and 51-34 as a 13-point favorite in the Big Ten Tournament. The SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, the host is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six.
The Badgers allow opponents to shoot 43 percent from the field, but they’re still only allowing 59.7 ppg, holding nine of 12 foes to 61 points or less. Offensively, Wisconsin has scored more than 70 points just three times. Michigan averages 74.8 ppg (44.7 percent shooting) and gives up 62.2 ppg (40.4 percent), but during its five-game winning streak, John Beilein’s squad has outscored its opponents by 18 ppg (83-65).
The Badgers are on ATS streaks of 7-1 in Big Ten play, 6-2 on the road (3-2 this year), 5-1 after an outright loss, 6-0 after a non-cover and 7-1 when playing on Wednesday. Michigan has cashed in all four home games this season, but it ended last year in pointspread funks of 1-4 in conference play and 1-7-1 on Wednesday.
The under is on runs of 12-5 for Michigan overall, 10-1 for Michigan in Big Ten action, 20-8 for Wisconsin in league play and 5-1 for Wisconsin following a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WISCONSIN and UNDER
NBA
Denver (20-12, 17-14-1 ATS) at Toronto (12-19, 11-19-1 ATS)
The Raptors return from a rough Western Conference road swing to take on another non-conference opponent in the Nuggets, who continue a four-game road trip with a stop at the Air Canada Centre.
Toronto lost to Golden State 117-111 as a 1½-point road chalk Monday night for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback, capping a six-game trip with a 2-4 SU mark (2-3-1 ATS). Chris Bosh (30 points, 14 rebounds) and Jose Calderon (21 points, 16 assists) had big nights, and the Raptors outrebounded the Warriors 49-37. But Golden State hit 50 percent overall from the floor and 50 percent on 3-pointers (12 of 24), while also knocking down 29 of 33 free throws.
Denver got drubbed at Atlanta 109-91 as a five-point road pup Monday, halting a two-game SU surge. The Nuggets had five players in double figures, but they topped out at Kenyon Martin’s 19-point effort. The game was won from long distance, as Denver went just 5 of 15 from 3-point range, while allowing the Hawks to knock down 12 of 23 attempts from beyond the arc.
Denver has won and covered in the last three meetings with Toronto, including a 132-93 wipeout as a five-point home favorite at the beginning of December – easily the Raptors’ worst defeat of the season so far. The Nuggets are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to the Air Canada Centre.
The Raptors are on a bundle of ATS slides, including 20-41-1 overall, 3-11 at home 1-8 against the Northwest Division, 1-4-1 after a SU loss, 8-22-1 against winning teams and 7-19-1 against the West. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are on a 2-6 ATS purge overall and are just 1-4 ATS in their last five roadies, but they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 4-0 when playing on one day’s rest, 8-3 as a favorite of less than six points and 11-1 against the Atlantic Division (only non-cover coming at Atlanta on Monday).
The over is 4-1 in Toronto’s last five overall and 6-1 in Denver’s last seven non-conference contests, but the under has hit in the Raptors’ last four home games and is on further runs for Toronto of 5-1 after a day off and 7-3 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is on a 4-1-1 stretch in games played in Toronto.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
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C-Stars Sports (10-3 Top Play run - ****CONFIRMED****)
1000 Units Top Play Houston minus the points over Air Force
1000 Units Top Play Kansas minus the points over Minnesota
50 Units Georgia Tech minus the points over LSU
50 Units Pitt/Oregon St. under the total
50 Units Boston College/Vandy over the total
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
1000 Units Top Play Houston minus the points over Air Force
1000 Units Top Play Kansas minus the points over Minnesota
50 Units Georgia Tech minus the points over LSU
50 Units Pitt/Oregon St. under the total
50 Units Boston College/Vandy over the total
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
From adam meyer's website both are 3 unit plays
ANYONE HEARD OF THIS GUY SAM CHENG???
NCAA College Basketball
Sam Cheng
[Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 2:00 PM]
Memphis U (-18 Points) vs. Northeastern
Mr. Cheng's plays come as informational plays and no analysis is needed.
Play: Memphis U (-18 Points)
Sam Cheng
[Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 10:00 PM]
North Carolina (-18 1/2 Points) at Nevada
Mr. Cheng's plays come as informational plays and no analysis is needed.
Play: North Carolina (-18 1.2 Points)
gl
ANYONE HEARD OF THIS GUY SAM CHENG???
NCAA College Basketball
Sam Cheng
[Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 2:00 PM]
Memphis U (-18 Points) vs. Northeastern
Mr. Cheng's plays come as informational plays and no analysis is needed.
Play: Memphis U (-18 Points)
Sam Cheng
[Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 10:00 PM]
North Carolina (-18 1/2 Points) at Nevada
Mr. Cheng's plays come as informational plays and no analysis is needed.
Play: North Carolina (-18 1.2 Points)
gl
WUNDERDOG
Game: Minnesota vs. Kansas (Wednesday 12/31 6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Minnesota +8.5 (-110)
The Jayhawks had high hopes bringing back a lot of the key pieces from a 12-1 team a year ago. That team however never had to play Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma. So although they were a very good team, their schedule made that good team look better. This season they had to play all of those teams and went 0-3. They not only went 0-3, but they were out-scored by a count of 59-143. They simply weren't competitive. The Jayhawks' offense was very good early this season. The defense brought back eight players from a year ago and started strong the first half of the season as they allowed just 18 points per game in their first six. From that point on they couldn't stop anyone as all six of their remaining opponents outscored that 18 ppg average. The points allowed over the last six games were a discouraging 41 ppg! The Gophers had a big start going 7-1, but fell apart over the last month of the season and were a no-show in their season finale against Iowa dropping the game 55-0. Outside of that one horrible game, the Gophers were highly competitive against some of the better teams. They lost to Ohio State on the road by just 13 and on the road against Wisconsin by just three. It is hard to back a team laying more than a TD when they have given up 41 ppg in their last six games - such as the Jayhawks. There is some further evidence to back that up as the Jayhawks have gone 1-14 ATS after giving up 31 or more points in three-straight games. I'll take the Gophers and the bundle of points in this one.
Game: Minnesota vs. Kansas (Wednesday 12/31 6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Minnesota +8.5 (-110)
The Jayhawks had high hopes bringing back a lot of the key pieces from a 12-1 team a year ago. That team however never had to play Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma. So although they were a very good team, their schedule made that good team look better. This season they had to play all of those teams and went 0-3. They not only went 0-3, but they were out-scored by a count of 59-143. They simply weren't competitive. The Jayhawks' offense was very good early this season. The defense brought back eight players from a year ago and started strong the first half of the season as they allowed just 18 points per game in their first six. From that point on they couldn't stop anyone as all six of their remaining opponents outscored that 18 ppg average. The points allowed over the last six games were a discouraging 41 ppg! The Gophers had a big start going 7-1, but fell apart over the last month of the season and were a no-show in their season finale against Iowa dropping the game 55-0. Outside of that one horrible game, the Gophers were highly competitive against some of the better teams. They lost to Ohio State on the road by just 13 and on the road against Wisconsin by just three. It is hard to back a team laying more than a TD when they have given up 41 ppg in their last six games - such as the Jayhawks. There is some further evidence to back that up as the Jayhawks have gone 1-14 ATS after giving up 31 or more points in three-straight games. I'll take the Gophers and the bundle of points in this one.
Scott Ferrall
College Bowl Games (FERRALL 42-20 LAST TWO BOWL SEASONS)
HOUSTON -3 to Air Force
OREGON ST -2.5 to Pittsburgh
VANDY +3.5 from Boston College
MINNESOTA +10 from Kansas
GEORGIA TECH -4 to LSU
NBA LOCKS FOR WEDNESDAY BEST BETS IN ( )
I HIT 2 OF MY TOP 3 PLAYS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, INCLUDING PORTLAND OVER BOSTON AND MINNESOTA GETTING 12 IN DALLAS
CHICAGO +6 over Orlando--OVER 201.5
DETROIT -6 to NJ--UNDER 188.5
HOUSTON -8 to Milwaukee--OVER 189
TORONTO +1 from Denver--OVER 202.5
OKLAHOMA CITY +3 from Golden St--UNDER 220
PHILLY -3.5 to Clippers--OVER 187
WEDNESDAY'S HOCKEY LOCKS MY FAVORITE LOCKS: BEST PICKS IN ( )
FLORIDA -135 over Islanders (5)
SAN JOSE -180 over Minnesota (2)
COLORADO +125 over Phoenix
CAROLINA -205 over Atlanta (3)
DALLAS -120 over New Jersey (6)
ANAHEIM -170 over Columbus (1)
CALGARY -180 over Edmonton (4)
College Bowl Games (FERRALL 42-20 LAST TWO BOWL SEASONS)
HOUSTON -3 to Air Force
OREGON ST -2.5 to Pittsburgh
VANDY +3.5 from Boston College
MINNESOTA +10 from Kansas
GEORGIA TECH -4 to LSU
NBA LOCKS FOR WEDNESDAY BEST BETS IN ( )
I HIT 2 OF MY TOP 3 PLAYS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, INCLUDING PORTLAND OVER BOSTON AND MINNESOTA GETTING 12 IN DALLAS
CHICAGO +6 over Orlando--OVER 201.5
DETROIT -6 to NJ--UNDER 188.5
HOUSTON -8 to Milwaukee--OVER 189
TORONTO +1 from Denver--OVER 202.5
OKLAHOMA CITY +3 from Golden St--UNDER 220
PHILLY -3.5 to Clippers--OVER 187
WEDNESDAY'S HOCKEY LOCKS MY FAVORITE LOCKS: BEST PICKS IN ( )
FLORIDA -135 over Islanders (5)
SAN JOSE -180 over Minnesota (2)
COLORADO +125 over Phoenix
CAROLINA -205 over Atlanta (3)
DALLAS -120 over New Jersey (6)
ANAHEIM -170 over Columbus (1)
CALGARY -180 over Edmonton (4)
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive- Wednesday
CFB 5-2 ATS L7
GAYLORD HOTELS MUSIC CITY BOWL - LP FIELD, NASHVILLE, TENN.
DECEMBER 31, 3:30 PM EST - ESPN
5 STAR SELECTION
Vanderbilt +3½ over Boston College
The Commodores are set to make their first bowl appearance in 26 years, as they take on the Golden Eagles Wednesday afternoon.
It wasn't pretty, but Vanderbilt was able to sneak their way into a bowl game for just the fourth time in school history and the first since losing to Air Force in the 1982 Hall of Fame Bowl.
"I'm excited, our staff is excited and our players are excited about getting a chance to experience a bowl game," head coach Bobby Johnson said. "Getting to play in the Gaylord Music City Bowl is a fantastic reward for this football team and Vanderbilt University."
The Commodores appeared to be a lock for the postseason following a 5-0 start to the season; however, things didn't go according to plan, as the team won just one of its final seven games to finish the regular-season at 6-6. Despite the poor stretch run, Vandy has a chance to win their second-ever postseason game and their first since defeating Auburn in the 1955 Gator Bowl.
As for Boston College, it used a couple of four-game win streaks down the stretch to help it reach the ACC title game for a second straight season. Like last season, though, the Eagles were denied a spot in a BCS game by Virginia Tech, dropping a 30-12 decision to the Hokies in the championship game.
Offensively, the Eagles have struggled to replace quarterback Matt Ryan, who has flourished as a rookie in the NFL after being selected third overall by the Atlanta Falcons in the 2008 draft. Chris Crane took over for Ryan this season and he had his up and downs, throwing for 10 touchdowns and rushing for seven, while being intercepted 13 times. The senior gun-slinger broke his collarbone against Wake Forest in late November, ending his season. Freshman Dominique Davis moved into a starting role for Crane and led the Eagles to two narrow wins before committing three turnovers in a loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game. In five appearances this season, Davis has completed only 47% of his pass attempts for 551 yards, with four touchdowns and two picks. In the rushing game, BC is paced by a true freshman in Montel Harris, who has gained 832 yards and five scores in 12 games.
On the defensive side of the ball is where the Eagles have really excelled this season, holding opponent to under 19 ppg and a mere 273 total ypg. The unit has done a tremendous job against the run, limiting foes to only 92 ypg and meager 2.9 yards per carry. BC's pass defense has been every bit as good and the team leads the nation in interceptions, with 26. Five of those picks have also been returned for touchdowns.
The Commodores haven't had much success on offense this season, as they are scoring only 19 ppg on a dismal 261 total ypg. The team, tough, has been able to grind out some yards on the ground, averaging 138 ppg. Tailback Jared Hawkins leads the team with 580 yards on the ground. Quarterback Chris Nickson has also played a part in the squad's ground game, as he has rushed for 485 yards and a team-high 6 TDs. Nickson, however, hasn't done much with his arm, throwing for only 545 yards, with eight scores and three picks. Mackenzi Adams is another option for Vanderbilt and he has thrown for 882 yards, but with five touchdowns and eight picks. It is uncertain who will start this game, but chances are both will get their shots against BC's stout defense.
Vanderbilt has played solid defense, giving up only 20 ppg and less than 320 total ypg, while forcing 27 turnovers, including 18 interceptions. The defense has had good success bringing down opposing quarterbacks as well, registering 29 sacks on the season.
If the teams brought the same level of excitement and determination to this game, we’d lean to the Eagles; however, in Bowl Games, it’s all about motivation or lack thereof. While the Commodores are simply giddy about playing in a Bowl Game, Boston College is having to lower its expectations:
"The way it is, unless you win, you are going to a fifth- or sixth-tier bowl," coach Jeff Jagodzinski said after a 30-12 loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game.
That makes two straight years and consecutive title-game losses to Virginia Tech, a team Boston College beat during the regular season each season. So, the program still has gone to only one major bowl — Doug Flutie's Cotton on Jan. 1, 1985 — and has lost the game that would have created a BCS spot three of the last five seasons.
Another bowl road game for the Eagles, whose fans are not known for traveling well and are again coming off a disappointing end of the season.
"It's definitely tough to be in the same position," said wide receiver Brandon Robinson. "It's a tough situation. It's tough coming here two years in a row and falling short. It (stinks). It's my last ACC game and to come as far as we did and not win, it's just tough."
The BC offense remains in transition as redshirt freshman quarterback Dominique Davis gets only his third career start in the Music City Bowl.
The offense bogged down against Virginia Tech as the Hokies cut off the run and made Davis try to beat them. He didn't do it. "Make the quarterback beat you," BC coach Jeff Jagodzinski said of the Virginia Tech strategy. "That's what I would have done."
Vanderbilt has reached its first bowl since 1982 with defense, and isn’t about to make things easy on Boston College.
While the Eagles are on a great SU Bowl run, they barely escaped their last 2 Bowl Games in the winner’s circle and failed to cover the spread in both games.
Here, we have a number of reasons to fade the Eagles again.
First, we like to play AGAINST a big Bowl favorite that won its Bowl game last year. Teams tend to relax and lose their edge if they enjoyed a Bowl win the previous year.
Teams like BC that were offensively challenged down the stretch and ended their season with a win and a loss have been over-rated as a Bowl favorite or very small underdog. This is confirmed by our SportsDataBase research, which resulted in a POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a Bowl team (not an underdog of more than 2 points) with 14+ days rest off a SU loss scoring less than 29 points in its last game, a SU win scoring less than 29 points in its game before that and scoring less than 29 points in each of its 2 games before that.
Such teams are 0-14 ATS since at least 1980, failing to cover the spread by 10 ppg on average.
Another Bowl Handicapping strategy we implement is to play ON a Bowl underdog that is playing at home or close to home in state.
Such teams thrive in familiar surroundings in front of a partisan crowd, and are less likely to be distracted by nearby attractions.
Vandy will also benefit from getting leading rusher Jared Hawkins back from a foot injury.
We also note that SEC underdogs have been very strong against the ACC in Bowl games. Specifically, a POWER SYSTEM tells us:
Play ON a Bowl SEC underdog of more than 2 points with less than 36 days rest vs. an ACC opponent.
Perfect since at least 1980, these teams are 10-0 ATS, while blasting the spread by nearly 19 ppg on average! NINE of the 10 underdogs won their Bowl Games outright. The only that failed to do so, lost by 1 points as a TD dog.
We also found that teams used to pulling upsets have been solid sides to back in Bowl Games. Specifically, December Bowl teams with 5+ season underdog SU wins and 27+ days rest are 7-0 ATS since at least 1980, including North Carolina State’s spread win over Rutgers on Monday.
Vanderbilt will win this game outright if it can pressure Davis into making mistakes. The Eagles aren’t going to run away and hide with their offense, so if a few drives end in turnovers, they’ll be in a four-quarter scrum. In Davis’ last high-profile game with Virginia Tech, he was picked off twice and sacked five times, while guiding his offense to just a single touchdown. The Commodores have enough talent, especially in the back seven, to produce similar results against this vanilla Eagle offense. Whatever talent gap exists should be closed by a more motivated and excited Commodores team playing essentially in front of a home crowd.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: VANDERBILT 20 BOSTON COLLEGE 17
INSIGHT BOWL - SUN DEVIL STADIUM, TEMPE, ARIZ.
DECEMBER 31, 5:30 PM EST - NFL NETWORK
5 STAR SELECTION
Minnesota +9 over Kansas
The Jayhawks and Golden Gophers bring identical 7-5 records into their game late Wednesday.
Kansas is playing in a bowl game for the second consecutive year for the first time in its history. After a strong start to the 2008 season, Kansas went through a stretch in which it lost four of five games. The Jayhawks were able to beat arch-rival Missouri in their regular season finale.
Minnesota finished a dismal 1-11 in 2007, but turned things around in 2008 under the guidance of head coach Tim Brewster. While the Gophers won 7 games this season, the club enters the Bowl Game on a four-game losing streak that includes an embarrassing 55-0 home loss to Iowa in the regular-season finale.
Kansas is scoring nearly 33 ppg while racking up over 430 total ypg, led by QB Todd Reesing. He has completed 66% of his passes for over 3,500 yards with 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The ground attack of Kansas is mediocre at best, as the leading rusher, Jake Sharp, has recorded only 796 yards.
The Jayhawks are yielding 30 ppg on defense and over 400 total ypg this season, numbers that reveal the team has struggled defensively this season. Foes have found a great deal of success throwing the ball against the Jayhawks, who are allowing over 275 passing ypg.
Minnesota does not have an explosive offense, as the squad is averaging a modest 23 ppg and 322 total ypg. The Golden Gophers have struggled mightily in their efforts to run the football, as they are averaging just 105.8 ypg on the ground while netting 3.2 yards per carry. The offense is led by QB Adam Weber, who is capable of making plays with both his arm and his legs. Weber has completed 63% of his passes for over 2,500 yards and 14 touchdowns with only eight interceptions.
Opponents are averaging only 23 ppg against Minnesota, which is yielding 378 total ypg. The defense has also come up with a high total of 30 takeaways, including 14 interceptions.
The knee-jerk reaction of the public is to run away from a Bowl team that has lost its last 4 games, including a 55-0 home shutout, and throw their money at a team that just knocked off a good team in an upset. This provides us with a golden opportunity, as we look to play AGAINST a team that has already won its biggest game of the season and can’t accomplish much more with a Bowl victory.
Teams that have already had a moment that’s defined their season will likely be flat for a Bowl game, especially if favored. The classic example would be a team that pulled off an upset win over a rival in their last game or late in the season. If they can’t win the national championship or make another major statement in their Bowl game, the team will have little motivation. Kansas fits the bill here with their win over Missouri. A win here simply can’t match that.
Additionally, we like to play AGAINST a big Bowl favorite that won its Bowl game last year. Teams tend to relax and lose their edge if they enjoyed a Bowl win the previous year. The bigger the win the previous Bowl game, whether by margin or meaningfulness, the harder it will be to capture that magic once again. The Jayhawks had a story-book season last year, losing just 1 game, and upsetting Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Again, there’s nothing they can do here to match what they did last season.
Our SportsDataBase research also shows that teams that ended the season with a win off an underdog loss, have had no business being a Bowl favorite of more than a TD. We have a POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of more than 7 points off a SU win in its last game and an underdog SU loss in its game before that.
These teams are 0-10 ATS since at least 1980, failing to cover the spread by 10 ppg on average.
More number-crunching shows that big Bowl favorites have had a hard time covering the spread when satisfied with a previous Bowl victory. This POWER SYSTEM informs:
Play AGAINST a road/neutral site Bowl favorite of more than 6 points that won its last Bowl Game and not off 4 favorite SU wins vs. an opponent not off a conference road favorite SU win & ATS loss.
Qualifying teams are now 0-22 ATS just since 2003! We’ve already used this to win 3 games this Bowl season, as California, Missouri, and Rutgers all came up short in beating the spread in their Bowl Games.
Meanwhile, Minnesota shows up with plenty to prove, especially with the way their season ended.
"It is the most embarrassing game I've ever been a part of, in any sport," Gophers quarterback Adam Weber said bluntly.
"Words can't express the disappointment I feel as a football coach, the disappointment I have for Minnesotans and our university, just disappointed in my ability to put a team on the field that could compete," Gophers coach Tim Brewster said. "We just didn't get that done."
While the public will not get behind a Bowl team on a losing streak, that is usually where the smart money is. Road/neutral site Conference Championship/Bowl underdogs of more than 2 points off 3 SU losses vs. opponents not off 9 SU wins are 10-0 ATS since at least 1980, killing the spread by more than 17 ppg on average! Last year provided a classic example with Oregon. The Ducks suffered a 3-game losing streak to end the regular season and were made a 5½-point underdog against South Florida. All the Ducks did was destroy the Bulls and beat the spread by FORTY points!
This conference matchup will also provide some line value here, as the public loves the Big 12 and hates the Big 10. Going AGAINST the Big 12 in Bowl Games this season, we are already 2-0, including the Alamo Bowl where Missouri struggled to put away Northwestern of the Big 10. At the right price, Big 10 Bowl teams have actually dominated Big 12 opponents under the conditions in yet another Bowl POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play ON a Big 10 Bowl team (not a favorite of 10+ points or underdog of more than 14 points) with less than 43 days rest vs. a Big 12 team not off a conference road favorite SU win & ATS win of more than 6 points.
With the Wildcats cover against the Tigers on Monday, these Big 10 teams are now 17-0 ATS vs. the Big 12 since at least 1980.
Our information from Arizona indicates that Kansas is not taking Minnesota seriously. They have no respect for the Gophers offense and are talking like all they have to do is show up for a guaranteed “W”. With huge edges in motivation and focus, underdogs should easily cover this large number, if not win the game outright.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: KANSAS 31 MINNESOTA 30
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL - GEORGIA DOME, ATLANTA
DECEMBER 31, 7:30 PM EST – ESPN
3 STAR SELECTION
LSU +4 over Georgia Tech
In the final game of 2008, the Tigers of the SEC will battled the Yellow Jackets of the ACC. LSU beat Ohio State to win the national title last season, the second time in the last five years that the team had captured college football's ultimate prize. Because of the recent success, this season's 7-5 record is certainly a disappointment for head coach Les Miles and his team.
Georgia Tech posted a 9-3 record under the guidance of first-year head coach Paul Johnson, who has made an immediate splash after coming over from Navy. Johnson endeared himself to fans of the Yellow Jackets by beating rival Georgia in the regular-season finale by a 45-42 final, the first time the club beat the Bulldogs since 2000.
Heading into this season, LSU was expected to have Ryan Perrilloux under center, but he was dismissed because of a violation of team rules, and there is no question that the offense suffered without him. Freshman Jarrett Lee took most of the snaps this season, but he struggled mightily in most games, having a record number of interceptions returned for touchdowns. There is reason for Tiger fans to be optimistic, however, as fellow freshman Jordan Jefferson was inserted into the lineup late in the regular season and had great success. Jefferson can get the job done with his arm and his legs, and the team has been busy getting him prepared for this Bowl Game.
Jefferson figures to hand the ball off to Charles Scott early and often, as the tailback rushed for over 1,100 yards and 15 touchdowns during the regular season
In this bowl game, LSU will face a Georgia Tech offense that relies almost solely on its running game to move the ball and score points. They have a great rushing attack, but the Tigers are doing a great job of stopping the run this season. LSU is allowing 26 ppg this season and 327 total ypg, numbers that aren't nearly as good as what most expected of the team entering this season.
Georgia Tech runs the same type of offensive system that Johnson featured during his time at Navy. Many wondered if implementing such an attack in the ACC was a foolish idea, but Johnson has silenced his critics. The Yellow Jackets are averaging 282 ypg on the ground, and their average of 5.6 ypc - proof of the tremendous success.
The top performer for the offense is tailback Jonathan Dwyer, who was recently named the ACC Player of the Year. He has rushed for over 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns in 12 games while racking up seven yards per carry.
Josh Nesbitt, the team's quarterback, has competed only 47% of his throws for 658 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions, as he isn't much of a threat as a passer.
While the Georgia Tech offense garners most of the headlines because of its unique style, the team's defense deserves much credit for the success achieved this year as well. The Jackets are only allowing 19 ppg and 313 total ypg.
While many are touting this as a “home” game for the Yellow Jackets, the Tigers have had a lot of success here. In fact, LSU has been to three different bowls over the last four seasons, but they have not left the friendly confines of New Orleans or Atlanta domes since the 2004 trip to the Capital One Bowl in Orlando, Fla.
It was the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl in 2005, the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans in 2006, the BCS national championship game in New Orleans last season and this season back to Atlanta for the Chick-fil-A Bowl, where LSU (7-5) will meet No. 14 Georgia Tech (9-3) at 6:30 p.m. Wednesday in the Georgia Dome.
Over the same time period, LSU played in the Southeastern Conference Championship game in the Georgia Dome in 2005 and 2007 and played in the Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans against Tulane in the 2007 regular season.
"We've been here a few times before, and Atlanta's pretty familiar now," senior defensive end Tyson Jackson said Saturday during a Chick-fil-A Bowl press conference here. "So we're not so much just being tourists and going around and looking at the landscape and stuff."
Atlanta and New Orleans have been business hubs for the Tigers, who are 10-1 in the two Dixie cities this decade. That's 5-1 in Atlanta with a 2000 Peach Bowl win over Georgia Tech, 2001 and 2003 SEC championship victories over Tennessee and Georgia, respectively, a 2005 SEC championship loss to Georgia, a 2005 Peach Bowl win over Miami and the 2007 SEC title victory over Tennessee. The New Orleans mark is 5-0 with Sugar Bowl victories in 2001 and 2006 over Illinois and Notre Dame, respectively, around the 2003 national championship win over Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl and two wins in 2007 - over Tulane and over Ohio State in the BCS title game.
"We travel here to the SEC championship game, and we recruit here regularly," LSU coach Les Miles said. "The opportunity to play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl here in Atlanta is an advantage for us. A lot of the guys who we're recruiting, and a lot of the men on our team right now are looking at the comfortable confines of Atlanta and saying, 'Boy, that's a nice stop for us.'"
LSU practiced in the Georgia Dome Friday and will again Tuesday and Wednesday. It worked in the Atlanta Falcons' indoor facility 45 minutes outside of Atlanta on Saturday and Sunday and will again today.
"Our team was in the dome Friday morning and it was very familiar confines, comfortable turf and field," Miles said. "We enjoy Atlanta. This is a beautiful town."
SEC underdogs have also been very strong against the ACC in Bowl game. We have a Bowl POWER SYSTEM that reads:
Play ON a Bowl SEC underdog of more than 2 points with less than 36 days rest vs. an ACC opponent.
Under those simple parameters, the SEC dogs are 10-0 ATS since at least 1980, winning 9 of the games outright and clobbering the spread by nearly 19 ppg on average!
In all Bowl games involving SEC teams, underdogs have been very strong in recent years. This is shown by another POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a SEC/SEC opponent Bowl underdog of more than 2 points with less than 50 days rest vs. a BCS-Conference opponent not off a conference SU loss as an underdog of less than 10 points.
Since 2004, these teams are a strong 15-0 ATS, while blasting the spread by more than 16 ppg on average.
LSU also qualifies for a POWER SYSTEM that informs:
Play ON a Bowl underdog of less than 14 points/pick ‘em with 4+ season SU losses off 2 conference SU & ATS loss/pushes vs. an opponent not off 2 home favorite SU wins in its last 2 games.
Since 1980, these teams are 15-0 ATS, covering the spread by 12 ppg on average.
We also like to play AGAINST a team that has already won its biggest game of the season and can’t accomplish much more with a Bowl victory.
Teams that have already had a moment that’s defined their season will likely be flat for a Bowl game, especially if favored. The classic example would be a team that pulled off an upset win over a rival in their last game or late in the season. If they can’t win the national championship or make another major statement in their Bowl game, the team will have little motivation. We see such a scenario here, with the Jackets coming off a big win over their main rival, Georgia.
The last time these teams met, it was a Tigers win, and bowl favorites of more than a single point have not been strong on getting revenge for a Bowl loss in the previous meeting. We have this documented by a POWER SYSETM that states:
Play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of more than 1 point seeking revenge for a non-home Bowl SU loss in the previous matchup vs. an opponent not off a conference road underdog SU win.
With West Virginia’s failure to cover the short number vs. North Carolina recently, these teams are now 0-21 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than a dozen ppg on average.
LSU still has athletes. The Georgia Tech option doesn’t always work against very fast, very disciplined defenses, and while LSU doesn’t always play sharp up front, with an NFL caliber defensive front and speed to burn in the back seven, it’ll be hard for Tech to consistently get wide and get into space to make the big plays. This is where the time factor kicks in. If this game was played a few weeks ago, Georgia Tech might win easily. With the weeks to rest up and prepare, the LSU defense should do enough to get by.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: LSU 28 GEOGIA TECH 20
BRUT SUN BOWL - SUN BOWL, EL PASO, TEXAS
DECEMBER 31, 2 PM EST – CBS
2 STAR SELECTION
Oregon State -1 over Pittsburgh
Two teams that fell just short of winning their respective conferences collide early on Wednesday when the Beavers meet the Panthers.
Oregon State’s season got off to a rocky start following a league loss at Stanford and a dismal performance at Penn State the next weekend. The team though, would then find great success, winning eight of its final 10 games of the regular-season, including a stunning upset of USC that provided a spark for the turnaround in late September. The Beavers rode a six-game winning streak into its regular-season finale, where had a chance to wrap up a share of the Pac-10 title and spot in the Rose Bowl with a win. Unfortunately for their fans, Oregon State were handled by arch rival Oregon, 65-38, despite playing the “Civil War” in front of their home crowd.
The Beavers are making their eighth bowl appearance in the last 10 season, and the team has won each of its last four postseason games under Mike Riley, including 39-38 besting of Missouri in the 2006 Sun Bowl.
As for the Panthers, they too started the 2008 season a bit shaky, dropping a 27-17 home game to Bowling Green in its opener. The Panthers responded by winning five straight and seven of their next eight games. The success put Pitt in position for a Big East title, but a 28-21 loss to eventual champion Cincinnati dashed those hopes. The Panthers, though, were able to overcome that loss with wins in their last two game , giving them their first nine-win regular-season campaign since 1982.
Oregon State’s success on offense this season was due in large part to rookie tailback Jacquizz Rodgers, who became the first freshman to be honored as the Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year after leading the league with over 1,200 yards. Rodgers missed the regular season finale with a fractured shoulder blade and is listed as doubtful for this game. While that is certainly a big blow, the Beavers do have a good enough passing attack to compensate for that loss. Lyle Moevao, who missed two games with an injury of his own, has played well for the Beavers, connecting on 61% of his tosses for over 2,300 yards. He has passed for 19 scores and run for two more, while throwing 11 interceptions.
Aside from a couple sub par performances, Oregon State’s defense has been nothing short of solid this season, holding opponents to just 323 total ypg. The unit has been sound versus both the run and pass, while forcing 20 turnovers. Getting to the quarterback has been a real strength of this unit, which has registered 34 sacks on the season.
For the Panthers, it all starts with tailback LeSean McCoy, who followed up an outstanding rookie campaign with an even better showing in 2008. McCoy, who set a Big East freshman record with 1,328 rushing yards last season, built off that performance by gaining over 1,400 yards on the ground this season. He has a nose for the end-zone as well, posting 21 rushing touchdowns. Quarterback Bill Stull threw for just over 2,300 yards on a 59% completion rate. Stull has only thrown nine touchdowns against the same amount of interceptions and that will be a problem if the Beavers show they can stop the run, as we expect them to do for the most part.
Pitt has fared well on defense this season, holding the opposition to 321 total ypg. The unit has been stingy versus both the run and pass, and has recorded 21 takeaways, including 14 interceptions.
The Beavers had become one of the Pac-10's top run defenses over the final two months of the season until Oregon ran through them for 384 yards. It's been the focus of bowl practices in preparation for Pitt's LeSean McCoy. At least Pitt doesn't run a spread offense, which Oregon State struggled against in losses to Oregon and Penn State, and the lack of mobility for Pitt quarterback Bill Stull takes away that problem.
There’s some question of how the Beavers will respond here off their loss to the Ducks that kept them out of Pasadena; however, we often look to play ON a team with at least some pride off a horrible performance. A team that has hit a new low with an awful showing will be determined to get rid of the bitter taste and bad press. Their loss to Oregon certainly fits the bill, and we expect Oregon State to be very determined and motivated here. Meanwhile, the information we are getting from El Paso is that the Pitt players are treating this as much more of a reward for the season and a bit more interested in having fun than treating the Bowl as a business trip.
One of our POWER SYSTEMS also supports a good rebound effort here from the Beavers. It states:
Play ON a Bowl team (not a favorite of 5+ points) off a home favorite SU loss in its last game and 3 SU wins before that.
Since 1985, these teams are a perfect 13-0 ATS. In last year’s qualifying game, West Virginia hammered Oklahoma 48-28 as a 7-point underdog.
Off 2 underdog victories as the Panthers are, teams have been in way over their heads against their Bowl Game opponents. This is documented by another POWER SYSTEM that reads:
Play AGAINST a Bowl team off a road/neutral underdog SU win in its last game and an underdog SU win before that.
These teams are 0-9 SU & ATS, losing outright by 3 TDs, while failing to cover the spread by nearly 20 ppg on average since at least 1980. That’s as far back as the SportsDataBase goes, so the numbers may be even stronger than that.
With Oregon State a young team building for 2009 and looking to bounce back from the ugly loss to Oregon, coach Mike Riley should have no trouble motivating the Beavers versus Pittsburgh, especially with the Panthers doing some trash-talking about Oregon State in the days before this Bowl Game.
This game will ultimately be won and lost by the quarterbacks. Stull does not have a great supporting cast and he is incapable of carrying the Panthers if necessary. Moevao, on the other hand, will make some mistakes but at least makes up for it with some big plays as both a runner and passer. McCoy will keep the Panthers alive well into the fourth quarter but Oregon State's superior athleticism on both sides will eventually be the difference as we give the Beavers the edge here for the SU & ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: OREGON STATE 28 PITTSBURGH 24
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CFB 5-2 ATS L7
GAYLORD HOTELS MUSIC CITY BOWL - LP FIELD, NASHVILLE, TENN.
DECEMBER 31, 3:30 PM EST - ESPN
5 STAR SELECTION
Vanderbilt +3½ over Boston College
The Commodores are set to make their first bowl appearance in 26 years, as they take on the Golden Eagles Wednesday afternoon.
It wasn't pretty, but Vanderbilt was able to sneak their way into a bowl game for just the fourth time in school history and the first since losing to Air Force in the 1982 Hall of Fame Bowl.
"I'm excited, our staff is excited and our players are excited about getting a chance to experience a bowl game," head coach Bobby Johnson said. "Getting to play in the Gaylord Music City Bowl is a fantastic reward for this football team and Vanderbilt University."
The Commodores appeared to be a lock for the postseason following a 5-0 start to the season; however, things didn't go according to plan, as the team won just one of its final seven games to finish the regular-season at 6-6. Despite the poor stretch run, Vandy has a chance to win their second-ever postseason game and their first since defeating Auburn in the 1955 Gator Bowl.
As for Boston College, it used a couple of four-game win streaks down the stretch to help it reach the ACC title game for a second straight season. Like last season, though, the Eagles were denied a spot in a BCS game by Virginia Tech, dropping a 30-12 decision to the Hokies in the championship game.
Offensively, the Eagles have struggled to replace quarterback Matt Ryan, who has flourished as a rookie in the NFL after being selected third overall by the Atlanta Falcons in the 2008 draft. Chris Crane took over for Ryan this season and he had his up and downs, throwing for 10 touchdowns and rushing for seven, while being intercepted 13 times. The senior gun-slinger broke his collarbone against Wake Forest in late November, ending his season. Freshman Dominique Davis moved into a starting role for Crane and led the Eagles to two narrow wins before committing three turnovers in a loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game. In five appearances this season, Davis has completed only 47% of his pass attempts for 551 yards, with four touchdowns and two picks. In the rushing game, BC is paced by a true freshman in Montel Harris, who has gained 832 yards and five scores in 12 games.
On the defensive side of the ball is where the Eagles have really excelled this season, holding opponent to under 19 ppg and a mere 273 total ypg. The unit has done a tremendous job against the run, limiting foes to only 92 ypg and meager 2.9 yards per carry. BC's pass defense has been every bit as good and the team leads the nation in interceptions, with 26. Five of those picks have also been returned for touchdowns.
The Commodores haven't had much success on offense this season, as they are scoring only 19 ppg on a dismal 261 total ypg. The team, tough, has been able to grind out some yards on the ground, averaging 138 ppg. Tailback Jared Hawkins leads the team with 580 yards on the ground. Quarterback Chris Nickson has also played a part in the squad's ground game, as he has rushed for 485 yards and a team-high 6 TDs. Nickson, however, hasn't done much with his arm, throwing for only 545 yards, with eight scores and three picks. Mackenzi Adams is another option for Vanderbilt and he has thrown for 882 yards, but with five touchdowns and eight picks. It is uncertain who will start this game, but chances are both will get their shots against BC's stout defense.
Vanderbilt has played solid defense, giving up only 20 ppg and less than 320 total ypg, while forcing 27 turnovers, including 18 interceptions. The defense has had good success bringing down opposing quarterbacks as well, registering 29 sacks on the season.
If the teams brought the same level of excitement and determination to this game, we’d lean to the Eagles; however, in Bowl Games, it’s all about motivation or lack thereof. While the Commodores are simply giddy about playing in a Bowl Game, Boston College is having to lower its expectations:
"The way it is, unless you win, you are going to a fifth- or sixth-tier bowl," coach Jeff Jagodzinski said after a 30-12 loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game.
That makes two straight years and consecutive title-game losses to Virginia Tech, a team Boston College beat during the regular season each season. So, the program still has gone to only one major bowl — Doug Flutie's Cotton on Jan. 1, 1985 — and has lost the game that would have created a BCS spot three of the last five seasons.
Another bowl road game for the Eagles, whose fans are not known for traveling well and are again coming off a disappointing end of the season.
"It's definitely tough to be in the same position," said wide receiver Brandon Robinson. "It's a tough situation. It's tough coming here two years in a row and falling short. It (stinks). It's my last ACC game and to come as far as we did and not win, it's just tough."
The BC offense remains in transition as redshirt freshman quarterback Dominique Davis gets only his third career start in the Music City Bowl.
The offense bogged down against Virginia Tech as the Hokies cut off the run and made Davis try to beat them. He didn't do it. "Make the quarterback beat you," BC coach Jeff Jagodzinski said of the Virginia Tech strategy. "That's what I would have done."
Vanderbilt has reached its first bowl since 1982 with defense, and isn’t about to make things easy on Boston College.
While the Eagles are on a great SU Bowl run, they barely escaped their last 2 Bowl Games in the winner’s circle and failed to cover the spread in both games.
Here, we have a number of reasons to fade the Eagles again.
First, we like to play AGAINST a big Bowl favorite that won its Bowl game last year. Teams tend to relax and lose their edge if they enjoyed a Bowl win the previous year.
Teams like BC that were offensively challenged down the stretch and ended their season with a win and a loss have been over-rated as a Bowl favorite or very small underdog. This is confirmed by our SportsDataBase research, which resulted in a POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a Bowl team (not an underdog of more than 2 points) with 14+ days rest off a SU loss scoring less than 29 points in its last game, a SU win scoring less than 29 points in its game before that and scoring less than 29 points in each of its 2 games before that.
Such teams are 0-14 ATS since at least 1980, failing to cover the spread by 10 ppg on average.
Another Bowl Handicapping strategy we implement is to play ON a Bowl underdog that is playing at home or close to home in state.
Such teams thrive in familiar surroundings in front of a partisan crowd, and are less likely to be distracted by nearby attractions.
Vandy will also benefit from getting leading rusher Jared Hawkins back from a foot injury.
We also note that SEC underdogs have been very strong against the ACC in Bowl games. Specifically, a POWER SYSTEM tells us:
Play ON a Bowl SEC underdog of more than 2 points with less than 36 days rest vs. an ACC opponent.
Perfect since at least 1980, these teams are 10-0 ATS, while blasting the spread by nearly 19 ppg on average! NINE of the 10 underdogs won their Bowl Games outright. The only that failed to do so, lost by 1 points as a TD dog.
We also found that teams used to pulling upsets have been solid sides to back in Bowl Games. Specifically, December Bowl teams with 5+ season underdog SU wins and 27+ days rest are 7-0 ATS since at least 1980, including North Carolina State’s spread win over Rutgers on Monday.
Vanderbilt will win this game outright if it can pressure Davis into making mistakes. The Eagles aren’t going to run away and hide with their offense, so if a few drives end in turnovers, they’ll be in a four-quarter scrum. In Davis’ last high-profile game with Virginia Tech, he was picked off twice and sacked five times, while guiding his offense to just a single touchdown. The Commodores have enough talent, especially in the back seven, to produce similar results against this vanilla Eagle offense. Whatever talent gap exists should be closed by a more motivated and excited Commodores team playing essentially in front of a home crowd.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: VANDERBILT 20 BOSTON COLLEGE 17
INSIGHT BOWL - SUN DEVIL STADIUM, TEMPE, ARIZ.
DECEMBER 31, 5:30 PM EST - NFL NETWORK
5 STAR SELECTION
Minnesota +9 over Kansas
The Jayhawks and Golden Gophers bring identical 7-5 records into their game late Wednesday.
Kansas is playing in a bowl game for the second consecutive year for the first time in its history. After a strong start to the 2008 season, Kansas went through a stretch in which it lost four of five games. The Jayhawks were able to beat arch-rival Missouri in their regular season finale.
Minnesota finished a dismal 1-11 in 2007, but turned things around in 2008 under the guidance of head coach Tim Brewster. While the Gophers won 7 games this season, the club enters the Bowl Game on a four-game losing streak that includes an embarrassing 55-0 home loss to Iowa in the regular-season finale.
Kansas is scoring nearly 33 ppg while racking up over 430 total ypg, led by QB Todd Reesing. He has completed 66% of his passes for over 3,500 yards with 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The ground attack of Kansas is mediocre at best, as the leading rusher, Jake Sharp, has recorded only 796 yards.
The Jayhawks are yielding 30 ppg on defense and over 400 total ypg this season, numbers that reveal the team has struggled defensively this season. Foes have found a great deal of success throwing the ball against the Jayhawks, who are allowing over 275 passing ypg.
Minnesota does not have an explosive offense, as the squad is averaging a modest 23 ppg and 322 total ypg. The Golden Gophers have struggled mightily in their efforts to run the football, as they are averaging just 105.8 ypg on the ground while netting 3.2 yards per carry. The offense is led by QB Adam Weber, who is capable of making plays with both his arm and his legs. Weber has completed 63% of his passes for over 2,500 yards and 14 touchdowns with only eight interceptions.
Opponents are averaging only 23 ppg against Minnesota, which is yielding 378 total ypg. The defense has also come up with a high total of 30 takeaways, including 14 interceptions.
The knee-jerk reaction of the public is to run away from a Bowl team that has lost its last 4 games, including a 55-0 home shutout, and throw their money at a team that just knocked off a good team in an upset. This provides us with a golden opportunity, as we look to play AGAINST a team that has already won its biggest game of the season and can’t accomplish much more with a Bowl victory.
Teams that have already had a moment that’s defined their season will likely be flat for a Bowl game, especially if favored. The classic example would be a team that pulled off an upset win over a rival in their last game or late in the season. If they can’t win the national championship or make another major statement in their Bowl game, the team will have little motivation. Kansas fits the bill here with their win over Missouri. A win here simply can’t match that.
Additionally, we like to play AGAINST a big Bowl favorite that won its Bowl game last year. Teams tend to relax and lose their edge if they enjoyed a Bowl win the previous year. The bigger the win the previous Bowl game, whether by margin or meaningfulness, the harder it will be to capture that magic once again. The Jayhawks had a story-book season last year, losing just 1 game, and upsetting Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Again, there’s nothing they can do here to match what they did last season.
Our SportsDataBase research also shows that teams that ended the season with a win off an underdog loss, have had no business being a Bowl favorite of more than a TD. We have a POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of more than 7 points off a SU win in its last game and an underdog SU loss in its game before that.
These teams are 0-10 ATS since at least 1980, failing to cover the spread by 10 ppg on average.
More number-crunching shows that big Bowl favorites have had a hard time covering the spread when satisfied with a previous Bowl victory. This POWER SYSTEM informs:
Play AGAINST a road/neutral site Bowl favorite of more than 6 points that won its last Bowl Game and not off 4 favorite SU wins vs. an opponent not off a conference road favorite SU win & ATS loss.
Qualifying teams are now 0-22 ATS just since 2003! We’ve already used this to win 3 games this Bowl season, as California, Missouri, and Rutgers all came up short in beating the spread in their Bowl Games.
Meanwhile, Minnesota shows up with plenty to prove, especially with the way their season ended.
"It is the most embarrassing game I've ever been a part of, in any sport," Gophers quarterback Adam Weber said bluntly.
"Words can't express the disappointment I feel as a football coach, the disappointment I have for Minnesotans and our university, just disappointed in my ability to put a team on the field that could compete," Gophers coach Tim Brewster said. "We just didn't get that done."
While the public will not get behind a Bowl team on a losing streak, that is usually where the smart money is. Road/neutral site Conference Championship/Bowl underdogs of more than 2 points off 3 SU losses vs. opponents not off 9 SU wins are 10-0 ATS since at least 1980, killing the spread by more than 17 ppg on average! Last year provided a classic example with Oregon. The Ducks suffered a 3-game losing streak to end the regular season and were made a 5½-point underdog against South Florida. All the Ducks did was destroy the Bulls and beat the spread by FORTY points!
This conference matchup will also provide some line value here, as the public loves the Big 12 and hates the Big 10. Going AGAINST the Big 12 in Bowl Games this season, we are already 2-0, including the Alamo Bowl where Missouri struggled to put away Northwestern of the Big 10. At the right price, Big 10 Bowl teams have actually dominated Big 12 opponents under the conditions in yet another Bowl POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play ON a Big 10 Bowl team (not a favorite of 10+ points or underdog of more than 14 points) with less than 43 days rest vs. a Big 12 team not off a conference road favorite SU win & ATS win of more than 6 points.
With the Wildcats cover against the Tigers on Monday, these Big 10 teams are now 17-0 ATS vs. the Big 12 since at least 1980.
Our information from Arizona indicates that Kansas is not taking Minnesota seriously. They have no respect for the Gophers offense and are talking like all they have to do is show up for a guaranteed “W”. With huge edges in motivation and focus, underdogs should easily cover this large number, if not win the game outright.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: KANSAS 31 MINNESOTA 30
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL - GEORGIA DOME, ATLANTA
DECEMBER 31, 7:30 PM EST – ESPN
3 STAR SELECTION
LSU +4 over Georgia Tech
In the final game of 2008, the Tigers of the SEC will battled the Yellow Jackets of the ACC. LSU beat Ohio State to win the national title last season, the second time in the last five years that the team had captured college football's ultimate prize. Because of the recent success, this season's 7-5 record is certainly a disappointment for head coach Les Miles and his team.
Georgia Tech posted a 9-3 record under the guidance of first-year head coach Paul Johnson, who has made an immediate splash after coming over from Navy. Johnson endeared himself to fans of the Yellow Jackets by beating rival Georgia in the regular-season finale by a 45-42 final, the first time the club beat the Bulldogs since 2000.
Heading into this season, LSU was expected to have Ryan Perrilloux under center, but he was dismissed because of a violation of team rules, and there is no question that the offense suffered without him. Freshman Jarrett Lee took most of the snaps this season, but he struggled mightily in most games, having a record number of interceptions returned for touchdowns. There is reason for Tiger fans to be optimistic, however, as fellow freshman Jordan Jefferson was inserted into the lineup late in the regular season and had great success. Jefferson can get the job done with his arm and his legs, and the team has been busy getting him prepared for this Bowl Game.
Jefferson figures to hand the ball off to Charles Scott early and often, as the tailback rushed for over 1,100 yards and 15 touchdowns during the regular season
In this bowl game, LSU will face a Georgia Tech offense that relies almost solely on its running game to move the ball and score points. They have a great rushing attack, but the Tigers are doing a great job of stopping the run this season. LSU is allowing 26 ppg this season and 327 total ypg, numbers that aren't nearly as good as what most expected of the team entering this season.
Georgia Tech runs the same type of offensive system that Johnson featured during his time at Navy. Many wondered if implementing such an attack in the ACC was a foolish idea, but Johnson has silenced his critics. The Yellow Jackets are averaging 282 ypg on the ground, and their average of 5.6 ypc - proof of the tremendous success.
The top performer for the offense is tailback Jonathan Dwyer, who was recently named the ACC Player of the Year. He has rushed for over 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns in 12 games while racking up seven yards per carry.
Josh Nesbitt, the team's quarterback, has competed only 47% of his throws for 658 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions, as he isn't much of a threat as a passer.
While the Georgia Tech offense garners most of the headlines because of its unique style, the team's defense deserves much credit for the success achieved this year as well. The Jackets are only allowing 19 ppg and 313 total ypg.
While many are touting this as a “home” game for the Yellow Jackets, the Tigers have had a lot of success here. In fact, LSU has been to three different bowls over the last four seasons, but they have not left the friendly confines of New Orleans or Atlanta domes since the 2004 trip to the Capital One Bowl in Orlando, Fla.
It was the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl in 2005, the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans in 2006, the BCS national championship game in New Orleans last season and this season back to Atlanta for the Chick-fil-A Bowl, where LSU (7-5) will meet No. 14 Georgia Tech (9-3) at 6:30 p.m. Wednesday in the Georgia Dome.
Over the same time period, LSU played in the Southeastern Conference Championship game in the Georgia Dome in 2005 and 2007 and played in the Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans against Tulane in the 2007 regular season.
"We've been here a few times before, and Atlanta's pretty familiar now," senior defensive end Tyson Jackson said Saturday during a Chick-fil-A Bowl press conference here. "So we're not so much just being tourists and going around and looking at the landscape and stuff."
Atlanta and New Orleans have been business hubs for the Tigers, who are 10-1 in the two Dixie cities this decade. That's 5-1 in Atlanta with a 2000 Peach Bowl win over Georgia Tech, 2001 and 2003 SEC championship victories over Tennessee and Georgia, respectively, a 2005 SEC championship loss to Georgia, a 2005 Peach Bowl win over Miami and the 2007 SEC title victory over Tennessee. The New Orleans mark is 5-0 with Sugar Bowl victories in 2001 and 2006 over Illinois and Notre Dame, respectively, around the 2003 national championship win over Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl and two wins in 2007 - over Tulane and over Ohio State in the BCS title game.
"We travel here to the SEC championship game, and we recruit here regularly," LSU coach Les Miles said. "The opportunity to play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl here in Atlanta is an advantage for us. A lot of the guys who we're recruiting, and a lot of the men on our team right now are looking at the comfortable confines of Atlanta and saying, 'Boy, that's a nice stop for us.'"
LSU practiced in the Georgia Dome Friday and will again Tuesday and Wednesday. It worked in the Atlanta Falcons' indoor facility 45 minutes outside of Atlanta on Saturday and Sunday and will again today.
"Our team was in the dome Friday morning and it was very familiar confines, comfortable turf and field," Miles said. "We enjoy Atlanta. This is a beautiful town."
SEC underdogs have also been very strong against the ACC in Bowl game. We have a Bowl POWER SYSTEM that reads:
Play ON a Bowl SEC underdog of more than 2 points with less than 36 days rest vs. an ACC opponent.
Under those simple parameters, the SEC dogs are 10-0 ATS since at least 1980, winning 9 of the games outright and clobbering the spread by nearly 19 ppg on average!
In all Bowl games involving SEC teams, underdogs have been very strong in recent years. This is shown by another POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a SEC/SEC opponent Bowl underdog of more than 2 points with less than 50 days rest vs. a BCS-Conference opponent not off a conference SU loss as an underdog of less than 10 points.
Since 2004, these teams are a strong 15-0 ATS, while blasting the spread by more than 16 ppg on average.
LSU also qualifies for a POWER SYSTEM that informs:
Play ON a Bowl underdog of less than 14 points/pick ‘em with 4+ season SU losses off 2 conference SU & ATS loss/pushes vs. an opponent not off 2 home favorite SU wins in its last 2 games.
Since 1980, these teams are 15-0 ATS, covering the spread by 12 ppg on average.
We also like to play AGAINST a team that has already won its biggest game of the season and can’t accomplish much more with a Bowl victory.
Teams that have already had a moment that’s defined their season will likely be flat for a Bowl game, especially if favored. The classic example would be a team that pulled off an upset win over a rival in their last game or late in the season. If they can’t win the national championship or make another major statement in their Bowl game, the team will have little motivation. We see such a scenario here, with the Jackets coming off a big win over their main rival, Georgia.
The last time these teams met, it was a Tigers win, and bowl favorites of more than a single point have not been strong on getting revenge for a Bowl loss in the previous meeting. We have this documented by a POWER SYSETM that states:
Play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of more than 1 point seeking revenge for a non-home Bowl SU loss in the previous matchup vs. an opponent not off a conference road underdog SU win.
With West Virginia’s failure to cover the short number vs. North Carolina recently, these teams are now 0-21 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than a dozen ppg on average.
LSU still has athletes. The Georgia Tech option doesn’t always work against very fast, very disciplined defenses, and while LSU doesn’t always play sharp up front, with an NFL caliber defensive front and speed to burn in the back seven, it’ll be hard for Tech to consistently get wide and get into space to make the big plays. This is where the time factor kicks in. If this game was played a few weeks ago, Georgia Tech might win easily. With the weeks to rest up and prepare, the LSU defense should do enough to get by.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: LSU 28 GEOGIA TECH 20
BRUT SUN BOWL - SUN BOWL, EL PASO, TEXAS
DECEMBER 31, 2 PM EST – CBS
2 STAR SELECTION
Oregon State -1 over Pittsburgh
Two teams that fell just short of winning their respective conferences collide early on Wednesday when the Beavers meet the Panthers.
Oregon State’s season got off to a rocky start following a league loss at Stanford and a dismal performance at Penn State the next weekend. The team though, would then find great success, winning eight of its final 10 games of the regular-season, including a stunning upset of USC that provided a spark for the turnaround in late September. The Beavers rode a six-game winning streak into its regular-season finale, where had a chance to wrap up a share of the Pac-10 title and spot in the Rose Bowl with a win. Unfortunately for their fans, Oregon State were handled by arch rival Oregon, 65-38, despite playing the “Civil War” in front of their home crowd.
The Beavers are making their eighth bowl appearance in the last 10 season, and the team has won each of its last four postseason games under Mike Riley, including 39-38 besting of Missouri in the 2006 Sun Bowl.
As for the Panthers, they too started the 2008 season a bit shaky, dropping a 27-17 home game to Bowling Green in its opener. The Panthers responded by winning five straight and seven of their next eight games. The success put Pitt in position for a Big East title, but a 28-21 loss to eventual champion Cincinnati dashed those hopes. The Panthers, though, were able to overcome that loss with wins in their last two game , giving them their first nine-win regular-season campaign since 1982.
Oregon State’s success on offense this season was due in large part to rookie tailback Jacquizz Rodgers, who became the first freshman to be honored as the Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year after leading the league with over 1,200 yards. Rodgers missed the regular season finale with a fractured shoulder blade and is listed as doubtful for this game. While that is certainly a big blow, the Beavers do have a good enough passing attack to compensate for that loss. Lyle Moevao, who missed two games with an injury of his own, has played well for the Beavers, connecting on 61% of his tosses for over 2,300 yards. He has passed for 19 scores and run for two more, while throwing 11 interceptions.
Aside from a couple sub par performances, Oregon State’s defense has been nothing short of solid this season, holding opponents to just 323 total ypg. The unit has been sound versus both the run and pass, while forcing 20 turnovers. Getting to the quarterback has been a real strength of this unit, which has registered 34 sacks on the season.
For the Panthers, it all starts with tailback LeSean McCoy, who followed up an outstanding rookie campaign with an even better showing in 2008. McCoy, who set a Big East freshman record with 1,328 rushing yards last season, built off that performance by gaining over 1,400 yards on the ground this season. He has a nose for the end-zone as well, posting 21 rushing touchdowns. Quarterback Bill Stull threw for just over 2,300 yards on a 59% completion rate. Stull has only thrown nine touchdowns against the same amount of interceptions and that will be a problem if the Beavers show they can stop the run, as we expect them to do for the most part.
Pitt has fared well on defense this season, holding the opposition to 321 total ypg. The unit has been stingy versus both the run and pass, and has recorded 21 takeaways, including 14 interceptions.
The Beavers had become one of the Pac-10's top run defenses over the final two months of the season until Oregon ran through them for 384 yards. It's been the focus of bowl practices in preparation for Pitt's LeSean McCoy. At least Pitt doesn't run a spread offense, which Oregon State struggled against in losses to Oregon and Penn State, and the lack of mobility for Pitt quarterback Bill Stull takes away that problem.
There’s some question of how the Beavers will respond here off their loss to the Ducks that kept them out of Pasadena; however, we often look to play ON a team with at least some pride off a horrible performance. A team that has hit a new low with an awful showing will be determined to get rid of the bitter taste and bad press. Their loss to Oregon certainly fits the bill, and we expect Oregon State to be very determined and motivated here. Meanwhile, the information we are getting from El Paso is that the Pitt players are treating this as much more of a reward for the season and a bit more interested in having fun than treating the Bowl as a business trip.
One of our POWER SYSTEMS also supports a good rebound effort here from the Beavers. It states:
Play ON a Bowl team (not a favorite of 5+ points) off a home favorite SU loss in its last game and 3 SU wins before that.
Since 1985, these teams are a perfect 13-0 ATS. In last year’s qualifying game, West Virginia hammered Oklahoma 48-28 as a 7-point underdog.
Off 2 underdog victories as the Panthers are, teams have been in way over their heads against their Bowl Game opponents. This is documented by another POWER SYSTEM that reads:
Play AGAINST a Bowl team off a road/neutral underdog SU win in its last game and an underdog SU win before that.
These teams are 0-9 SU & ATS, losing outright by 3 TDs, while failing to cover the spread by nearly 20 ppg on average since at least 1980. That’s as far back as the SportsDataBase goes, so the numbers may be even stronger than that.
With Oregon State a young team building for 2009 and looking to bounce back from the ugly loss to Oregon, coach Mike Riley should have no trouble motivating the Beavers versus Pittsburgh, especially with the Panthers doing some trash-talking about Oregon State in the days before this Bowl Game.
This game will ultimately be won and lost by the quarterbacks. Stull does not have a great supporting cast and he is incapable of carrying the Panthers if necessary. Moevao, on the other hand, will make some mistakes but at least makes up for it with some big plays as both a runner and passer. McCoy will keep the Panthers alive well into the fourth quarter but Oregon State's superior athleticism on both sides will eventually be the difference as we give the Beavers the edge here for the SU & ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: OREGON STATE 28 PITTSBURGH 24
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