New Years Eve Service Plays 12/31/08

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE (4-13)



HOUSTON (7-5) vs AIR FORCE (8-4)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
12:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Houston ..... 38.4 . 41- 31 .. 28-22 .. 162-170 .. 414- 249 .. - 5 . Houston
Air Force .... 41.0 . 27- 21 .. 18-19 .. 269-140 .... 80- 196 .. +12 . by 5.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
Rematch! These 2 met in week 3 of the regular season, with the Falcons of
Air Force (+2) racing to a 31-7 lead, en route to a 31-28 win. As per usual, the
Falcs controlled the running game, with a 380-172 yd edge, but a 6.1-5.4 ypr
deficit. It must be noted that AF was in off a pair of walkthroughs vs SoUtah &
Wyoming, while UH entered off a 56-37 loss to OklahomaSt. Thus, the 'Pokes
& Falcons put a whippin' on that Cougar rushing "D" to the tune of 379 & 380
yds. So take note of Houston's 170 RYpg "D" at year's end, which translates
into allowing just 127.5 RYpg vs its other 10 opponents. Yes, we know that the
'Force has already proven its worth vs the Coog "D", & once again ranks among
the overland elites, but we also acknowledge Houston improvement. It may
surprise some, but this is just AF's 2nd bowl in the last 6 seasons (but 2-for-2
under Calhoun). Last year, the Falcs (+4½) blew a 21-0 lead over Cal, in this
bowl, losing 42-36, despite a 312-202 RY edge. The Coogs are led by QB
Case Keenum, who ranks 1st in the nation in passing efficiency: 4,761 yds, 43
TDs (2nd only to Oklahoma's Heisman winning Bradford), & 67.3%. Beall
(1,119 RYs, 6.3 ypr) leads a running game, that averaged 5.2 ypr. And a batch
of receivers (Hafner, Carrier, etc) have also contributed to an offense, which
wound up #1 in total "O". For the Cougars, this marks their 5th bowl trip in the
past 6 years, the first as chalks. The past 2 years, they've missed the ATS
brass ring by just 2 & 1 pt, vs the likes of SoCarolina & TCU. Thus, more than
competitive. First year for head coach Kevin Sumlin, who was formerly "O"
coordinator with Oklahoma. Obviously, he has served Coogs well. Revenge!
PROPHECY: HOUSTON 38 - Air Force 31 RATING: 6



OREGON STATE (8-4) vs PITTSBURGH (9-3)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
2:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Oregon St ... 43.7 . 33- 25 .. 22-16 .. 165-135 .. 254- 189 .. + 2 . Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh .. 43.2 . 29- 23 .. 19-17 .. 143-128 .. 213- 193 .. - 4 . by 10.1 Pts
ANALYSIS
Not exactly what the Beavers of Oregon State were aiming for, in their season
finale with arch-rival Oregon. A win over the Ducks would have resulted in an
OSU Rose Bowl appearance for the first time since 1964. But it wasn't meant
to be, as they had to go it without Pac10 frosh record setter Jacquizz Rodgers,
with the ensuing 65-38 loss, the result. And 4 turnovers didn't help, with a pair
of interceptions taken the distance (40 & 70 yds). OSU entered that game on
a 7-1 spread run, by 109 pts, by the way. The Beavs, of course, shocked the
gridiron world, when they pinned the only loss on USC, as 24-pt dogs, no less.
In that one, Rodgers ran for 186 yds. Not only that, but USC was held to just
86 RYs (121 yds below its season average) & 313 total yds. At year's end,
Moevao was a decent 19/11, with 2,341 PY (60.5%). Defensively, OSU ranks
33rd overall, allowing only 3 teams to top 136 RYs. Bowl-wise, the Beavers
are 3-1 ATS under Riley since '03, averaging 38.3 ppg. In sharp contrast, this
is the very first bowl appearance for the Panthers of Pittsburgh, under the
leadership of Dave Wannstedt. Inheriting an 8-4 '04 Fiesta Bowl team, he has
hardly been the messiah hoped for by the Pitt faithful, with ensuing 5-6, 6-6, &
5-7 campaigns, before this year's splendid 9-3 mark. He's had his moments,
to be sure, especially with LY's season-ending upset of WestVirginia (32½ pt
cover), thereby depriving the Mounties of the BCS title tilt. Pitt has been led by
RB McCoy, who has amassed 2,731 yds & 35 TDs the past 2 years, but QB
Stull is nothing special thus far, 2,308 yds, but just 9/9. The dog is 23-6 ATS in
Pitt games, but the Beavers sure know how to light it up come bowl season.
PROPHECY: OREGON STATE 33 - Pittsburgh 20 RATING: 5



BOSTON COLLEGE (9-4) vs VANDERBILT (6-6)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
3:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Bost Coll .... 43.2 .. 26-19 .. 18-15 . 144- 92 .. 176- 181 .. + 6 . Bost Coll
Vanderbilt ... 46.6 .. 19-20 .. 15-18 .. 138-145 . 123- 174 .. + 6 . by 0.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
Twenty-six long years. That's how long the Commodores of Vanderbilt have
had to wait, since playing in their last bowl game, a 36-28 loss to AirForce in
the '82 Hall of Fame, as 9½ pt chalks, no less. In that one, they squandered a
28-17 lead after 3, with the Falcons' 331-35 RY edge, overcoming 452 PYs by
Vandy's Whit Taylor. By the way, that marked Vandy's 3rd-ever bowl contest.
The past 2 years have been near mirror images for the 'Dores, who needed
just a single win over their last 4 games in '07, only to come up empty, with a
25-24 loss to arch-rival Tennessee, the most irksome. This season, Vandy
opened with 5 wins (& covers), but promptly dropped 3 straight, before the
faithful breathed a collective sigh of relief, when they jumped to a 24-0 lead
over Kentucky, en route to a 31-24 win. Thus their streak of 25 consecutive
losing years was snapped, with the magic "bowl eligibility" label finally theirs.
As can be seen from the above stats, Vandy is hardly an offensive power,
ranking 118th, with an overland game which has topped 150 yds just once,
with QBs Nickson & Adams at just 49.2 (8/3) & 49.4 (5/8) respectively. Thus
a "D", which has held 6 foes below 18 pts, ranking 29th in the land, is their
bread-&-butter. But the bowl-tested Eagles of Boston College check in at #6
in total "D", holding 4 foes to 7 pts or less (3 shutouts). However, note BC's
other 8 opponents averaging 29.3 ppg. Thus, a bit of chink in that defensive
armor. Offensively, the Eagles check in at #94, down from LY's Matt Ryan led
"O", which finished 33rd best in the land. Eight straight bowl wins for BC, but
by just 25-24 & 24-21 scores last 2 years (ATS losses). Call for continuance.
PROPHECY: Boston College 23 - VANDERBILT 22 RATING: 6




KANSAS (7-5) vs MINNESOTA (7-5)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
5:30 PM EST -- NFL TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Kansas ....... 48.6 .. 33-30 .. 23-21 . 129-127 .. 302- 276 .. + 3 . Kansas
Minnesota .. 42.7 .. 23-23 .. 16-19 . 106-147 .. 216- 232 .. +12 . by 12.1 Pts
ANALYSIS
A year ago, these 2 squads couldn't have been more different, as the Jayhawks
of Kansas nearly ran the table, with a regular-season ending loss to Missouri
marring an otherwise perfect campaign. That's right: 12-1 straightup, with an
astounding 11-1 spread mark. The Jays made it to the 2nd spot in the nation,
before that Mizzou setback, & finished 8th in total "O", & 2nd in scoring. In
stark contrast, the Gophers of Minnesota, who were perennial bowl entrants
(5 straight from '02-'06) posted an unimaginable 1-11 log in '07, Tim Brewster's
1st year at the helm, after taking over from Glen Mason, who was let go after
Minny blew a 28-pt halftime lead, losing 44-41 (OT) to TexasTech in this same
bowl in '06. But this year, they won 7 of their first 8 (OhioSt), rising to the 20th
spot in the nation. Not only that, but they were on an 8-1 spread run, by 106½
pts. But things took a turn for the worse, as Minny dropped its final 4 games,
including a 55-0 home loss to Iowa, in its finale (23-6 FD, 222-7 RY, 483-134
TY deficits). The term "limping in" hardly seems strong enough. They are led
by QB Weber (2,585 yds, 62.8%, 14/8), with WR Decker his main target. But
check ranking 104th in rushing; certainly foreign to the Mason years. Forcing
the TO (30) seems their main forte. KU also struggled down the stretch, with
a 2-4 mark, allowing 39.3 ppg in those 6. Thus, a 94th "D" ranking, despite 9
returning starters to a unit which finished 12th a year ago. They are led, of
course by their brilliant QB, Todd Reesing, who has thrown for 7,053 yds & 61
TDs the past 2 years. However, note the Jays entered LY's Orange Bowl at
44 ppg. Hardly the overpowering squad from a year ago, so a mild Minny call.
PROPHECY: Kansas 31 - MINNESOTA 27 RATING: 5




GEORGIA TECH (9-3) vs LSU (7-5)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
7:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Ga Tech ...... 47.3 .. 26-18 .. 17-17 .. 282-117 ... 95- 196 .. + 5 . Ga Tech
LSU ............. 46.6 .. 30-26 .. 20-16 .. 167-106 . 206- 221 .. - 4 . by 6.2 Pts
ANALYSIS
Quite a comedown for the defending National Champion Tigers of LSU. Last
year, they made it to the BCS title game, despite an 11-2 record (43-37, 50-48
OT losses to Kentucky & Arkansas), triumphing over OhioSt, 38-24 (10-pt
cover). The Bengals lost 10 starters from that squad, including QB Flynn,
who, altho nothing special, owned a 21/11 TD to INT ratio, throwing for 4 TDs
in the title game, with just a single pick. That squad finished the season with
the 3rd best "D" in the land, the 11th best overland game, & with the 2nd best
TO ranking (+20). Contrast that to this year, with the Tigers ranking 36th in
total "D", 42nd in rushing, & 78th in TO ratio. Their main man is RB Scott, who
finished with 1,109 yds (5.5 ypr) & 15 TDs. Lee is their new man under center,
but is hardly reliable (53%), with just 14 TDs, & 16 INTs (7 of which were taken
the distance). Check an 0-6 spread run to finish up the season, while being
stung for 31, 31, & 31 pts in their final 3 games. Rushing "D" seems their only
forte, but that unit had better be at its best, if it is to contain the Yellow Jackets
of Georgia Tech, & their triple option offense installed by new head coach Paul
Johnson. Sure, the Tigers are a holiday fixture (9 straight yrs), but almost
unnoticed, this marks the Jackets' 12th consecutive bowl season. Tho not
making it into the ACC title match, Tech is arguably the hottest team in the
conference, scoring 41 & 45 pts, with 472 & 409 RYs in their season-ending
wins over Miami & Georgia (snapping a 7-game slide vs the 'Dawgs). QB
Nesbitt is the optioneering trigger, with Dwyer at 1,328 RYs (7.0 ypr) & 12 TDs.
LSU: 1st team since '43 to follow national title with losing league record. Tech!
PROPHECY: GEORGIA TECH 34 - Lsu 24 RATING: 3
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THE SPORTS REPORTER (10-7)

THE SPORTS REPORTER BEST BETS (25-33-1) GA TECH

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
ARMED FORCES BOWL
Amon G. Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, TX
HOUSTON over AIR FORCE by 5
HOUSTON, 38-33.



SUN BOWL
Sun Bowl Stadium – El Paso, TX
OREGON STATE over PITTSBURGH by 3
OREGON STATE, 26-23.



MUSIC CITY BOWL
LP Field – Nashville, TN
BOSTON COLLEGE over VANDERBILT by 3
BOSTON COLLEGE, 13-10.



INSIGHT BOWL
Sun Devil Stadium – Tempe, AZ
KANSAS over MINNESOTA by 15
KANSAS, 38-23.


CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA
BEST BET
GEORGIA TECH over LSU by 15
GEORGIA TECH, 35-20.
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Brand X Sports, Mike Volpe Bowl Package (9-9)


Armed Forces Bowl Wednesday December 31
Air Force Falcons versus Houston Cougars
Line Houston -3 Total 64

Home cooking is not going to help the Cougars in this one. Air Force
has dominated CUSA opponents with 14 covers in 19 games. The Cougars are just 2-6 versus the spread against teams with winning records and have failed to cover 75%
of their games over the last sixteen contests.





4* Air Force Falcons +3.5

Sun Bowl Wednesday December 31
Pittsburgh Panthers versus Oregon State Beavers
Line Oregon State -3 Total 53

This is what I like to call a “surface pick.”

The Panthers enjoyed a great season but are just 2-6 ATS when playing on
Artificial surface. Oregon State takes to the turf like Beavers to a river bed (get it?).
O State is almost perfect at 11-1 versus the spread when playing on plastic.




4* Oregon State Beavers -3

Music City Bowl Wednesday December 31
Boston College Eagles versus Vanderbilt Commodores
Line Boston College -3 Total 41

Vandy is all pumped up with what amounts to a home game in their first
post season appearance in 26 years.

Only two problems.

Vandy has lost six of their last seven games and BC owns the nation’s longest Bowl
Win streak at nine.

5* Boston College Eagles -3
Bonus Play 2* on the OVER 41





Insight Bowl Wednesday December 31
Minnesota Gophers versus Kansas Jayhawks
Line Kansas -9 Total 57

Minnesota is ANOTHER team that is playing in a bowl carrying a long losing streak on their backs. The Gophers have lost four straight, how you get a bowl bid without winning a game in the final month of the season is beyond me, but the Gophers are not alone this year.

Kansas did not close out the season much better, losing four of their last six, but the Jayhawks did manage to beat Missouri in the season finale as sixteen point underdogs.

4* Kansas Jayhawks -9





Chick-Fil-A Bowl Wednesday December 31
LSU Tigers versus Georgia Tech Yellowjackets
Line Georgia Tech -4 Total 50

LSU has got the name but does not have the game.

G Tech has been kicking butt and taking names all year long.

As Rod Serling would have said, “Submitted for your perusal”

LSU 6-12 L18 versus the number
Tech 11-2 L13 versus the number

4* Georgia Tech Yellowjackets -4
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kevin O'Neil's "The Max" -- now is 6-8


Pitt by 6
BC by 10
GT by 7
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bruce Feldman = 13-4
Senior writer with ESPN The Magazine

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Houston 42, Air Force 34: The Cougars don't defend the run well at all (they rank 90th in the nation), and against Air Force, that'll be a big issue. Still, Houston's offense is explosive enough to win in a shootout. UH is averaging 49 points in its past four games, while AFA surrendered an average of 41 points in its final two games of the regular season.


Brut Sun Bowl
Pitt 23, Oregon State 17: Oregon State's defense, which is decent, hasn't seen a running back as complete as Pitt's LeSean McCoy. Jahvid Best got 116 yards on only 15 carries against OSU, and McCoy is an even better inside runner. The Beavers are good at putting pressure on the opposing quarterback, something that has been a concern for Pitt all season. If Jacquizz Rodgers was 100 percent, I might go with the Beavers, but I like McCoy to lead the Panthers to win in a tight game.


Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl
Boston College 23, Vanderbilt 7: The Eagles have a very solid front seven that should seize control of this game early. Vandy's secondary might be able to force some turnovers, but I still don't see the Commodores doing enough on offense to win in a low-scoring game. I also like the young and emerging BC O-line to take control of this game in the second half.

Insight Bowl
Kansas 34, Minnesota 20: Coach Mark Mangino's Kansas team isn't very good against the pass, but I doubt Minnesota, which fizzled in the last month of the season, will take much advantage. My hunch is that KU QB Todd Reesing will take control of this game and carve up an athletic but sometimes shaky Minnesota defense that is 88th against the pass and has surrendered 90 points in its past two games.

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Georgia Tech 44, LSU 20: How hard can Les Miles get his team to play in this game? The Tigers' defense was flat for much of the season and was victimized by a ton of busted assignments. Now, LSU will play against a tricky offensive scheme in Georgia Tech's backyard.
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WINNING POINTS (5-12)


Wednesday December 31
ARMED FORCES BOWL (Fort Worth, TX)
HOUSTON over AIR FORCE by 6
HOUSTON 37-31.


SUN BOWL (El Paso, TX)
PITTSBURGH over OREGON STATE by 1
PITTSBURGH 21-20.


MUSIC CITY BOWL (Nashville, TN)
BOSTON COLLEGE over VANDERBILT* by 2
BOSTON COLLEGE 19-17.


INSIGHT BOWL (Tempe, AZ)
KANSAS over MINNESOTA by 12
KANSAS 38-26.


CHICK-FIL-A BOWL (Atlanta, GA)
GEORGIA TECH over L.S.U. by 6
GEORGIA TECH 26-20.
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Cappers Access

Wed (CFB) Air Force
Wed (CFB) Minnesota
Wed (CFB) LSU
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Logical Approach = 15-13 ( 7-7 SIDES AND 8-6 TOTALS )




Armed Forces Bowl - Fort Worth, TX - Wednesday, December 31, 2008

This is the second rematch of a regular season game. In the first rematch Wake Forest avenged a regular season loss to Navy in the Eagle Bank Bowl, winning 29-19. In the earlier meeting between these teams Air Force edged Houston That game was moved from Houston to Dallas in the wake of Hurricane Ike and after Houston took an early 7-0 lead Air Force scored 31 straight points to lead 31-7 before Houston rallied to score the final 21 points to fall just short in the Air Force 31-28 win. Houston had a 534 to 380 yardage edge with a dominant passing attack that was their strength all season. Houston led the nation with 575 yards per game with an average rushing game (162 ypg, # 50) and a potent passing game (414 ypg, # 2). Air Force ran the ball exceptionally well (269 ypg, # 5) but had virtually no aerial game (80 ypg, # 118). In face, Air Force was 0 for 7 through the air in the first meeting. Air Force had a significant edge in the defensive stats but still netted only 14 more ypg gained than allowed while Houston was plus 156 ypg. Houston scored at least 41 points in 7 of their last 8 games while Air Force scored 41 points just once - in a season opening 41-7 win over FCS/I-AA Southern Utah. Both teams have not enjoyed much recent Bowl success. Houston has lost in each of the past 3 seasons and 8 straight Bowls. Their last Bowl win was over Navy in the 1980 Garden State Bowl. Air Force has had sporadic Bowl success over the years but the Falcons have lost their last 2 Bowls with their last win coming in the 2000 Silicon Valley Bowl. Given the circumstances surrounding their first meeting and the flow and statistics in that game, as well as the more potent and quick strike offense, Houston is clearly the better team. They play with the motivation for same season revenge and to end their lengthy streak of Bowl failures - especially now that Notre Dame ended their 9 Bowl losing streak. Air Force will be well disciplined and well prepared but they also appear overmatched. Houston wins 41-30, making

HOUSTON a 3 Star Selection
OVER a 2 Star Selection




Sun Bowl - El Paso, TX - Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Both teams had successful seasons, finishing tied for second in their respective conferences. Pitt had a solid finish to their season, winning 4 of 5 including a second straight win over arch rival West Virginia. Oregon State closed by winning 6 of 7 but that lone loss was to arch rival Oregon 65-38 in their finale. It was a costly loss as a win would have sent OSU to their first Rose Bowl in 40+ seasons! Clearly the team had to be totally dejected after that loss and their motivation for this game has to be questioned. But perhaps the lengthy layoff of more than a month will have eased the disappointment and the Beavers may want to show they are a better team than they showed in that loss - or in an early season 45-14 loss at Penn State. We know they are a better team as OSU was the only team to defeat USC, winning 27-21 in late September and the win was by no means a fluke. Statistically OSU is the slightly better team on offense while the defenses are fairly even. Pitt won 5 of 6 road games this season, 4 of which came against Bowl bound teams. OSU was just 3-3 on the road but all 3 wins came in their 3 most recent road games with only one against a fellow Bowler (19-17 at Arizona). Pitt is in their first Bowl game in four seasons while OSU in their third straight Bowl and eighth in 10 seasons. Oregon State has won each of their last 4 Bowls with their last Bowl loss, ironically, to Pitt in the 2002 Insight Bowl, 38-13. The players and coaches are different this time around so any OSU revenge motive is insignificant at best. This is one of the more difficult games to call as there are as many negatives for each team as there are positives. Pitt struggled to run the ball down the stretch, held to under 100 yards in 3 of their last 4 games after topping 110 and averaging 164 in their first 8 games. The better option may be in looking towards the total but our enthusiasm for that is at best lukewarm. The forecast is for Oregon State to win 31-27, making

OREGON STATE a 1 Star Selection
OVER a 2 Star Selection



Music City Bowl - Nashville, TN - Wednesday, December 31, 2008

The quarter century drought is over for Vanderbilt as the Commodores are in their first Bowl game since the 1982 Hall of Fame Bowl (in which they lost to Air Force). And they get to play in their home city to boot. But the Bowl berth did not come easy as Vandy as that lone win to become Bowl eligible after a 5-0 start took 5 more games before 5-4 Vandy defeated Kentucky. Thus their 6-6 finish includes a 1-6 mark over the last half of the season. Boston College had another fine season even after losing QB Matt Ryan to the NFL but ended with a second straight loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC Title game, denying BC a spot in a BCS Bowl. BC has been a solid Bowl team and is making a tenth straight Bowl appearance. The Golden Eagles have won their last 8 Bowls, covering in the first 6 of those wins before falling to the spread each of the past two seasons (when they won by 1 and 3 points). Both teams are much stronger on defense than on offense. Each has an average rushing offense but a weak passing attack and BC has most of the statistical edges, although they are slight. Vandy's most notable stat edge is in turnovers as their defense caused 2.2 turnovers per game (# 18) while BC's offense averaged 2.3 turnovers per game (# 103). BC's defense was even better at creating turnovers (2.8 per game, # 2) but Vandy's offense was better than average at protecting the football. BC's Bowl experience rates a major edge but that may be somewhat offset by Vandy's ACC pedigree and home site. It's hard to make a case for a favorite to win and not cover a FG spread but this may be such a situation. Vandy will be highly motivated for this game and will enjoy huge crowd support. But BC has the ability to come from behind and erase a late deficit. A stronger case can be made for a low scoring game. Boston College wins but by just 17-16, making

VANDERBILT a 1 Star Selection
UNDER a 4 Star Selection .




Insight Bowl - Tempe, AZ - Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Minnesota made one of the more dramatic turnarounds this season, going from 1-11 last season to 7-5 this season. But that 7-5 included a 7-1 start as the Gophers ended the season losing 4 straight including a 55-0 home loss to Iowa to close the regular campaign. Kansas followed up last season's 12-1 mark with a solid 2008 season that ended with a wild 40-37 upset win (as + 16) over Missouri. Neither team faced much of a non-conference slate. Minny lost their only test against a true quality team, 34-21 at Ohio State. Kansas played and lost to the 3 powerhouses from the Big 12 South. Prior to last season Minnesota had been to 5 straight Bowls, losing the last 2 -- each b\y a FG - after winning each of the prior 3. That most recent loss to Texas Tech cost former coach Glen Mason his job after Minny blew a huge lead and lost in OT. So 2007 was a year of transition with a new coaching staff but still with players who had been to several straight Bowls. Kansas is in a second straight Bowl but are in their first ever back to back Bowls. Given all this the line may seem unusually high but it is reflective of the oddsmakers opinion of the difference between the Big 10 and Big 12 conferences as well as the way Minnesota ended the regular season. Kansas clearly was the more tested team and has the more potent offense and arguable a defense that has been tested against better offenses. Kansas wins 31-17, making
KANSAS a 1 Star Selection
UNDER a 2 Star Selection .



Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Atlanta, GA - Wednesday, December 31, 2008
This Bowl has to be a disappointment for defending BCS Champion LSU which had much higher expectations starting the season. Their 2-9 ATS record is more indicative of how far short they fell of meeting those expectations than is their 7-5 S/U record. Georgia Tech had a very successful season under first year coach Paul Johnson who brought his strong running game philosophy from Navy and it worked very well. The Yellow Jackets ranked # 3 in the nation rushing for 282 ypg. The pass game was almost non-existent, averaging just 95 ypg (# 117). Both teams were very solid defensively against the run, with LSU # 17 and Tech # 22. LSU had a more balanced offense, relying a bit more on the pass than on the run. Both teams played Mississippi State and Georgia with Tech having the better results. GT ended the season with a 45-42 road win at Georgia after routing MSU 38-7 earlier in the season. LSU also defeated MSU 34-24 but lost badly to Georgia, 52-38, at home, one of 3 home losses sustained by the Tigers this season. This is a virtual home game for Georgia Tech while it's a long driving distance for LSU supporters who may not be too interested in making this trip after playing for (and winning) the BCS Title a year ago. Still, we must consider the SEC pedigree vs that of the ACC notwithstanding the games against the two common SEC foes. After winning the 2003 National Title LSU found itself in a lesser Bowl the following season and lost, 30-25, to Iowa in the Capital One Bowl as a 6 point favorite. Here they are the underdog and they are also making ninth straight Bowl appearance, winning their last 3 Bowls since that loss to Iowa. Overall LSU is 6-2 in those prior 8 Bowls both S/U and ATS including 3-1as an underdog. GT is in a Bowl for a twelfth straight season. They have lost each of their last 3 Bowls including 2 in which they were favored. Considering Tech's one dimensional attack and LSU's time to prepare for it, LSU's role as and an underdog and their history of Bowl success gives them an edge despite the site edge for Tech. LSU wins 27-20, making

LSU a 3 Star Selection
UNDER a 2 Star Selection
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CKO = 3-3


10 *GEORGIA TECH over Lsu
Late Score Forecast:
*GEORGIA TECH 34 - Lsu 20
(Wednesday, December 31, 2008)
Had this matchup taken place in September, LSU would have likely been a double-digit favorite. But on New Year's Eve in Atlanta, we have no problem laying a reasonable price with hometown GT. Much of the credit goes to first-year Jacket HC Paul Johnson, who transferred his pointspread magic from Navy while covering 8 of 10 on board. Meanwhile, disappointing LSU managed only two covers in '08, thanks partly to unstable QB situation (frosh Jefferson now starting) and underachieving "D" that never seemed to adjust to departure of shrewd d.c. Bo Pelini (now at Nebraska). Big defensive edge to Jacket stop unit that recorded 32 sacks and forced 29 TOs, while sloppy-tackling Tigers vulnerable to Johnson's pet spread option and thundering Tech RB Dwyer (1328 YR).
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NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP (9-7)

ARMED FORCES BOWL

These tms met earlier TY in a gm that was moved to Dallas (SMU’s HF) due to Hurricane Ike. The gm was played at 10 am in windy/rainy conditions in front of about 2,000 fans. AF was up 17-7 at half then
31-7 late 3Q before UH staged a furious comeback. They got within 31-28, but AF rec’d the onside K & ran out the clock. AF was outgained 534-380, and did not comp a pass, but forced 2 TO’s while playing mistake free. AF HC Troy Calhoun has taken the Falcons to a bowl gm in both of his yrs here (0-1 SU & ATS). Calhoun’s 17 wins in 2 seasons are the 2nd most ever for a service acad HC in his 1st 2 yrs. In LY’s Armed Forces Bowl vs Cal, AF (+4) built a 21-0 lead, but late 3Q QB Carney tore his ACL & MCL. His inj deflated the entire squad and Cal went on to win 42-36. UH is making its 4th str bowl appearance and 5th in the L6Y (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS), but this is the 1st bowl as a HC for Kevin Sumlin. LY UH played in the Texas Bowl and lost to TCU 20-13 (+6). AF went 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) away from home TY outscoring opps by an avg of 27-15 and their only road loss was to TCU. UH is 2-5 SU (1-6 ATS) away from home being outscored 45-34 despite outgaining opp 529-455. AF is 6-3 SU (4-3 ATS) vs non-conf foes under Calhoun. AF had a large crowd edge LY with many military fans and should have the same turnout here. TY AF played 6
bowl elig tms and was outscored 32-26 and outgained 426-337. UH played 6 bowl tms TY going 2-4 SU/ATS, outscoring them 41-38 and outgaining them 565-478, but these margins were helped greatly by a 70-30 win over Tulsa (641-501 yd edge). AF has 16 upperclassmen starters incl 10 Sr’s. The Cougars have 12 upperclassmen starters, incl 9 Sr’s. Both tms played Colo St with AF winning SU/ATS (38-17, -9’) outgaining them 455-354, while UH lost SU/ATS (28-25, -6’) despite outgaining them 473-422.
AF’s #78 off is led by true Fr QB Tim Jefferson. Calhoun wanted to infuse more spd and Jefferson started the L/7 gms, leading the team to a 5-2 SU record. He was named the MWC Frosh of the Yr and is the 1st frosh in AF history to win that honor. AF has really gone with a youth movement TY as five of the top 7 rushers are frosh or sophs but the leading rusher is Sr Newell. True Fr Clark is #2. When AF chooses to pass (14.5%), the top rec is Jr Josh Cousins. The OL avg 6’4” 273 with 2 Sr’s and they have
started all 12 gms TY. They have given up just THREE sks (2.5%) while paving the way for 269 ypg rush (#5 NCAA). LB Lamendola (#2 tklr MWC) leads our #62 D which is all’g just 139.8 ypg rush (3.6) with 33 sks (9.6%). The defense has held 5 opp’s under 300 ttl yds TY and has scored 3 defensive TD’s. They have also recorded multiple TO’s in 10 of 12 gms TY and AF is +12 in TO margin. DL Paulson is #2 in the MWC in sks. The pass D ranks #60 all’g just 196 ypg (58%) with a 14-11 ratio, led by the tm’s #2 tklr, Chris Thomas. The ST’s rank #83 behind the leg of PK Harrison. The return gm is dominated by underclassmen led by soph Reggie Rembert who leads in both PR and KR avg. The Falcons allow 19.3 on KR’s and 8.9 on PR’s. The Cougars controlled their own destiny heading into the final wk of the ssn, needing a win to capture the CUSA West title. They lost at Rice (56-42, -3) and instead of a possible Liberty Bowl berth, they
end up here. UH’s dynamic #11 off is avg 575 ypg (#2 NCAA) and 41 ppg. They are led by QB Keenum (CUSA Off POY) who is #1 in the NCAA in ttl off avg 416 ypg. Keenum spreads the ball around as 9 players have caught TD passes TY. TE Hafner leads NCAA in rec and TD’s by a TE. You can’t overlook the run game as UH is avg 161 ypg (5.2) on the ground. True Fr RB Beall (CUSA Frosh of the Yr) set UH frosh records for rush yds and rush TD’s. Houston has our #93 D all’g 31 ppg and 419 ypg. They are
all’g 170 ypg (4.2) on the ground and are led by DE Phillip Hunt (CUSA Def POY) who has 12 sks (T-#4 NCAA), but the rest of the tm has only accounted for 10 sks. UH has our #87 pass eff D all’g 249 ypg (61%) with a 27-13 ratio. The Cougars have our #60 ST’s and have blk’d 5 kicks (3 FG, 2 P), but they have only made 10-16 FG’s (10-14 inside 40). Carrier is avg 22.5 on KR, including a 93 yd KR TD. While we’re well aware it is historically not profitable to play against a military academy in a bowl,
Houston finds itself in a great situation. QB Keenum has exploded for almost 5,000 yds of total offense and now faces an AF squad that they outgained 534-380 earlier this year. The D should also improve after
having seen the same option attack twice this year. The Houston scoring machine has topped 40+ in 7 of the L/8 gms while AF’s offense has struggled down the stretch topping 24 just once in the L/5.
FORECAST: HOUSTON BY 10
RATING: 3* HOUSTON




SUN BOWL

This is the 75th edition of the Sun Bowl. These 2 have met just 1 time, a 38-13 Pitt victory in the ‘02 Insight Bowl. Pitt returns to a bowl for the 1st time since their 35-7 Fiesta Bowl defeat at the hands of Utah in ‘04 (Panthers had 5 consec bowl appearances under former HC Harris). HC Wannstedt has been under heavy criticism after recording a 16-19 record in his 1st 3 yrs but a turning point came LY with their huge win over #2 WV which gave them momentum for ‘08. The Beavers are undefeated (4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS) in bowl play under HC Riley who was honored as the P10 COY this ssn. Pitt has played in the Sun Bowl twice winning in ‘75 & in ‘89. This is OSU’s 2nd trip here in the L3Y as they had a late 2pt conv against Mizzou to pull out the win in ‘06. The Panthers went on to win 9 gms for the 1st time S/‘82 defeating rival WV again while the Beavers tallied a 8-4 mark incl a 2nd str home upset of USC. Pitt has played 10 bowl caliber tms (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) outgaining them by a 355-329 mark while OSU went 4-3 SU (5-2 ATS) against bowl schools outgaining them by a 396-363 clip. Pitt has 8 Sr starters among 16 upperclassmen while the Beavers have 13 Sr’s & 17 upperclassmen. The Panthers are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS the L3Y on turf while OSU plays their HG’s on the fake stuff (6-2 SU/ATS TY). Pitt is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS on the road TY while the Beavers struggled some going 3-3 SU (4-2 ATS) away from Corvallis. Pitt has our #35 offense avg 29 ppg & 356 ypg. DW was back on the hot seat after an opening loss
to BG as they were inconsistent early on. They defeated #10 USF, dominated Navy & won 4 of the L/5 for a share of #2 in the BE. Pitt delivered 5 come-from-behind wins in the 4Q. The Panthers scored on
41 of 45 drives in the RZ (9th NCAA). DW went with Bill Stull at QB, who was inj’d the 1st gm LY. The offense is built around RB McCoy who carried the tm avg 117 ypg (4.9) & is tied for 2nd in the NCAA with 21 TD. WR Kinder ret’d from an ‘07 knee inj to lead the tm in rec while Fr WR Baldwin (6’5”) has emerged as a big play threat. TE’s Byham & Dickerson give Stull a balance of strength & speed. The OL has 104 career sts & avg 6’4” 299 with 2 Sr’s incl CJ Davis who moved from LG to C after Houser went down with inj. They’ve all’d 27 sks & paved the way for 143 ypg (3.8). Pitt has our #28 def ranking all’g 23 ppg & 321 ypg. The Pitt DL avg 6’3” 274 all’g 128 ypg (3.6) led by bookends Romeus & Sheard who comb for 11.5 sks. The LB’s are led by BE Def POY & AA Scott McKillop who is #2 in the NCAA in solo tkls (78). OLB Ransom moved from WR prior to the opener due to inj & emerged as the #2 tklr. Pitt has our #57 pass eff D all’g 193 ypg (55%) & a 19-14 ratio. The ST’s has our #43 ranking led by K Lee
who is Pitt’s career FG leader & has never missed a PAT in his career (113). With inj’s the L2Y to QB Canfield, Lyle Moevao became the clear-cut starter to begin the ssn at signal caller for the Beavers. After suffering a shldr inj that caused him to miss 2 gms, Moevao returned for the
“Civil War” vs the Ducks & while he threw a career-high 5 TD passes, he also had 2 costly int’s ret’d for TD ending any chance for the program’s 1st Rose Bowl appearance S/’65. Many thought that OSU’s run game
would be down in ‘08 with the loss of RB Bernard but True Fr Jacquizz Rodgers silenced many critics as he finished 2nd in the P10 in rushing yds on the ssn, earning P10 OPOY & FOY despite missing the “Civil War” w/inj (should ret here). WR Stroughter ret’d TY & comb with Morales & James Rodgers (older bro of Quizz, out for the bowl w/inj) to become one of the most dangerous units in the conf. The OL avg 6’3” 299 & paved the way for 165 ypg rush (4.3) led by OT Levitre. OSU all’d 16 sks TY (4.0%) & has our #20 off. The DL avg 6’2” 286 with 3 Sr starters. OSU uses a heavy rotation on the line keeping players fresh and they recorded 23 of the tm’s 34 sks (68%) on the ssn led by DE’s Norris & Butler. The LB unit consists of 3 playmakers leading our #32 overall def. OSU is #17 in pass eff D all’g 189 ypg (53%) with a 15-12 ratio led by 4 solid Sr’s. OSU’s ST unit finished in decent shape at #40 thanks to big ssns in the ret gm. Pitt’s goal the last few weeks was to beat W Virginia and Conn and make it to the Sun Bowl. They also covered 4 of their L/5 gms with the only ATS loss by 1 pt at Cincy. OSU played with pressure throughout Nov trying to reach the Rose Bowl, but fell short of that goal and now it is up to HC Riley to re-motivate his troops. We believe he can do just that after having his team finish the year on an 8-2 ATS run while having played 3 BCS bowl teams. Oregon St’s DE’s can cause havoc on Pitt’s QB’s and
should take them out of their gameplan.
FORECAST: OREGON ST BY 11
RATING: 2* OREGON ST



MUSIC CITY BOWL

This is just the 3rd meeting between these 2 (BC 2-0) but the last game was in ‘63. BC is 13-18-1 all-time vs SEC tms. This is BC’s 10th consec bowl and a win here will extend the nation’s longest active bowl game winning streak to 9 (6-2 ATS). BC played here in ‘01 and upset #16 Georgia 20-16 (+4). Jagodzinski is 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS in bowls. This is Vandy’s first bowl trip S/’82 and VU HC Johnson has never played or coached in a bowl gm but did lead his Furman team to the IAA Nat’l Champ gm in ‘01. These 2 both faced WF TY and BC defeated WF 24-21 (+2) but Vandy lost 23-10 (+4) in their reg ssn finale. The Eagles have faced 9 bowl caliber tms (VT 2x) going 6-4 SU & 5-5 ATS outgaining them 308-279. Vandy has faced 7 bowl tms with a 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS record but was outscored by an avg of 24-22 and outgained by an avg of 361-271. Vandy will definitely have the fan edge as this is being played in their backyard and BC fans are known as poor travelers. BC has 7 Sr starters among
14 upperclassmen starters while VU only has 4 Sr starters among 16 upperclassmen. The Eagles are 4-1 SU but 1-4 ATS away from Chestnut Hill as a fav and VU is 6-2 ATS as a dog TY (4-1 on road w/3 outright upsets). Vandy has the schedule edge (#21-70). BC, who was picked to finish 4th in the ACC Atlantic Div in the pressn, finished the reg ssn with a 9-3 record and advanced to their 2nd consec ACC Champ gm but once again were dealt a second-tier bowl. They have lost 2 str yrs in the ACC Title game to VT and has lost the game that would have created a
BCS spot in 3 of the L/5Y. RFr QB Davis, subbing for the inj’d Crane (broken collarbone), is only starting his 3rd game. In the ACC Champ game he threw for 263 yds (39.5%) throwing 2 int and was sk’d 5x. RB
Harris broke the BC frosh rushing record. The O-line avg 6’6” 307 and is anchored by 1st Tm ACC OG Clif Ramsey and 2nd Tm ACC OT Anthony Castonzo. The Eagles are avg 3.9 ypc rush and have all’d 21 sks
(5.1%). They have our #68 offense and #20 defense. BC DL avg 6’3” 293 and is led by 1st Tm ACC DT BJ Raji & 2nd Tm ACC Ron Brace. The rush D is only all’g 2.9 ypc (#7 NCAA) and 20 of the 34 sks are by the DL. LB Mark Herzlich, who was named the ACC Def POY, is tied for #14 in the NCAA along with S Paul Anderson with 6 int each. The Eagles lead the NCAA with 26 int and have ranked in the Top 25 in int 7x’s S/’00. The secondary allowed 181 ypg pass (56%) but just 9 TD. BC’s D or sp tms have scored 9 times this season (5 IR TD, 1 FR TD, 1 PR TD, 1 blk P TD and 1 safety). The Eagles have our #100 ranked sp tms. BC hasn’t tried a FG longer than 39 yds and that was NG in their 1st meeting vs VT.
This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Commodores as just 9 starters ret’d from ‘07, but VU surprisingly started out 5-0 for the 1st time S/’43 upsetting 4 tms to climb to #13 in the AP poll. In that 5-0 start, VU defeated a ranked tm at home for the 1st time S/‘92 (SC) but VU was outgained 325-225 in that 24-17 win, grabbed 4 int (incl 1 ret’d for TD) to beat Ole Miss 23-17 (outgained 385-202), and defeated then #13 Aub for their 2nd win over a ranked opp TY (1st time S/’55). VU led the nation in TO margin in the 1st 5 gms (+9), but finished +6. VU’s #104 off struggled with inconsistent QB play with Nickson starting the 1st 6 until he was benched in their 1st loss of the yr to Miss St. Adams started the next 3 (0-3 SU) until he was inj’d vs UF. Nickson st’d the L/3 incl their bowl clinching win over UK, but Adams saw playing time in the L/2. Starting RB Jennings was banged up all yr which opened the door for Jr RB Hawkins. WR Smith missed the 1st 4 gms TY with inj after starting LY while VU lost 3 WR’s for the yr due to inj. The OL was rebuilt after losing all 5 starters from ‘07 and all’d 26 sks (8.7%) with the starters avg 6’6” 297. The DL avg 6’5” 269 and neither line has a Sr starter. Vandy is known for producing solid LB’s and 2nd Tm SEC Benoist led the tm in tkls. Vandy has
a super secondary (#12 in pass D) led by 1st Tm SEC CB DJ Moore who was #2 in the SEC with 6 int and also contributed on off (216 ttl yds), and sp tms (top KR & PR). The Commodores’ D is #26 in our rankings. Vandy suffered 5 blk’d punts TY causing their otherwise solid sp tms unit to rank #107. BC has been an opportunistic team with 9 defensive and ST’s scores. Those opportunities will be tougher to achieve against a tm that had time to prepare. Vandy’s offense has struggled with both
QB’s under 50% this year and throwing for a combined 13-11 ratio. The key will be BC’s defensive front 7 and if they play to their potential, they have the ability to control this game.
FORECAST: BC/VANDERBILT UNDER 42
RATING: 2* UNDER


INSIGHT BOWL

Just the 7th meeting (3-3) with the last coming in ‘73. The most recent link between the schools came in ‘97 when then-HC Mason left KU for Minnesota. Ironically, Mason’s last game came in the Gophers’ only previous visit to Tempe (blew 31 pt lead & lost 44-41 to TT in ‘06, +7). Mason was axed immediately after, opening the door for bowl virgin Tim Brewster who is familiar with Mangino from their RRR days (Brewster on UT’s staff; Mangino w/OU’s). Mangino is 2-1 SU/ATS in bowls & is the only HC to guide KU to 4. UM is 3-0 ATS as a dog in bowls (4-1 as a dog TY) while KU has covered its only bowl as a fav (‘05). Vs bowl tms UM went 3-4 SU (4-3 ATS) despite being outgained 383-337. KU was 2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS also being outgained (478-420). UM played its final gm in the HHH Metrodome but has gone 3-1 ATS on grass (KU 3-1 also). The Gophers are a young team with just 3 seniors starting regularly among 15 upperclassmen & the Jayhawks have 8 senior starters (14 upperclassmen).
Despite a 4 game losing streak, the Gophers’ 7 wins marked the biggest 1 year improvement in program history after a 1-11 disaster in ‘07. UM’s offense ranks #81 as they regularly start 5 frosh including 3 on the OL. The headliners are soph QB Weber and 1st TM Big Ten WR Decker who led the conference in rec’s despite totaling just 3 in the L/3 due to an ankle injury. The team lost RB Bennett (ACL in the 2nd game) and had to go with true frosh Eskridge and Salamon. The OL started 9 different
lineups due to injuries and inexperience. The Gophers finished last in the league in rushing offense which Brewster called “unacceptable” and he fired OL coach Phil Meyer after the season-ending 55-0 loss to Iowa. His replacement is ex-USC OL coach Tim Davis and Brewster said the team will use more 2 TE and 2 RB sets in the bowl. UM had the NCAA’s worst defense in ‘07 and Brewster upgraded the unit athletically by signing several JC’s and moving players. UM led the Big Ten with 30 TO’s forced (#8 NCAA) while trimming its ypg allowed from 519 to 378 (#65 overall D). DE VanDeSteeg returned to All-Big Ten form with a team leading 9.5 sks. Ex-DE Campbell led the team in tackles at MLB and JC S Simmons led the conf with 17 passes defended. The ST’s are #42 in our rankings with PR Sherels finishing #2 in the conf with a 12.4 avg. KU has our #25 off avg 33 ppg & 431 ypg which is down 10 ppg & 49 ypg from its Orange Bowl ssn
LY. Two main reasons for the decline were the tm’s lack of health & the upgrade in the schedule (OU, TT & UT pulled from the B12 S, avoided all in ‘07). KU returned 6 starters from LY, but lost its top RB, WR & arguably the ‘07 nation’s best secondary player (Talib). QB Reesing’s numbers, as expected, were down, but he did finish #21 in the NCAA in pass eff (145.8). Reesing was also overshadowed due to the B12’s QB play, but only avg 251 ypg (56%) with 5 (42%) of his int vs the B12 S. WR Meier
provides a very reliable target as 66 (76%) of his rec resulted in FD’s (18 FD rec on 3rd/4th down). He is the bkup QB who spends the majority of his time with them in practice. 2nd Tm B12 WR Briscoe had six 100+ yd performances (3 straight). The running gm (#9 in B12 down 68 ypg from LY) suffered at times with inj’s & playing catchup, but when healthy Sharp is a solid option. The OL avg 6’4” 308 (3 Sr starters) paving the way for 129 ypg (3.7) while all’g 28 sks (6.0%). The def returned 9 starters from
the ‘07 squad, but the 30 ppg & 402 ypg allowed are the worst S/’03 (Mangino’s 2nd yr). They have our #59 ranking & have gotten to opposing QB’s 26 times (5.3%). The DL avg 6’4” 271 (1 Sr). The LB unit (3 Sr starters all back from ‘07) has been banged up all ssn. The secondary has had a problem with inj’s also as KU moved former WR Patterson over to start at CB. KU has our #40 pass eff def allowing 276 ypg (61%) with a 26-15 ratio. KU has our #95 ST unit & struggles in PR coverage (10.9
#86 in NCAA) while the net punting (33.0) is ranked #95. KU is #118 (17.4) in the NCAA in KR’s. While it’s tough to back a Gopher squad that limps into this bowl with 4 straight losses, incl a 55-0 shutout, KU has ridden the coattails of last season’s overrated run and has been an AF once this year almost losing as an 11 pt fav. Minny HC Brewster is changing some offensive schemes after firing his OL coach after the Iowa loss which puts Kansas in a position of not knowing what to expect. The teams are closer than this large line, and we’ll take the generous pts vs an unmotivated Jawhawks squad.
FORECAST: MINNESOTA (+) THE PTS KANSAS BY 7
RATING: 1* MINNESOTA




CHICK-fil-A BOWL

The ACC and SEC are tied 8-8 in the Chick-fil-A Bowl and 10 of those gms have been decided by a TD or less. Their last meeting was the 2000 Peach Bowl when LSU upset #15 GT 28-14 (+8’), but GT is 12-6 SU
all-time in this series. GT is 0-3 all-time in this bowl while LSU is 4-0 and in ‘05 they blasted #9 Miami 40-3 (+7). In his 1st yr as HC, Paul Johnson was named the ACC COY with 9 wins (most ever by a GT HC) and
GT upset in-state rival UGA for the 1st time in 8 yrs. Johnson is 2-2 SU (3-1 ATS) in bowls. Miles is 4-2 SU (3-2-1 ATS) in bowls but has won and covered all 3 at LSU. LSU has been to a schl rec’d 9 consec bowls.
This is GT’s 12 str bowl and they are 22-14 all-time but have lost 3 str (1-2 ATS). Five of GT’s L/7 bowls have been out West but now they get to play in the Georgia Dome which is just 2 miles from Dodd Stadium. LSU
is also familiar with this site as they’ve plyd here 6x’s S/‘00. GT is 2-4 SU & ATS as a bowl fav while LSU has pulled 2 str upsets as a bowl dog. Both tms faced Miss St & UGA TY and GT was 2-0 SU & ATS winning by
an avg of 42-23 while LSU was 1-1 (0-2 ATS) and outscored 38-36. Fifteen of GT’s 22 starters will likely be frosh or soph’s. On off there are no Sr starters & just 4 on D. LSU has 9 Sr starters and 18 upperclassmen
starters. GT faced 7 bowl tms TY and went 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS. LSU faced 6 and went 2-4 SU (1-5 ATS) being outscored by an avg of 26-35. This gm is officially a sell-out with GT selling their 17,500 allotment and LSU
exp to sell theirs, but the crowd will likely be pro-GT. ACC teams are 6-4 SU/5-5 ATS TY vs SEC teams. LSU becomes the 1st BCS defending champ to play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, and has clinched the worst record by a defending BCS Champ at 7-5 (prior worst FL 9-4 in ‘07). Problems began in spg when QB Perrilloux was dismissed leaving OC Crowton with Harvard transfer Hatch, rFr Lee and true frosh Jefferson (expected to RS). Hatch st’d the 1st 3 then gave way to Lee and suffered a leg inj which caused him to miss the L/5. Lee st’d the next 8 but struggled throwing 7 int ret’d for TD’s and then was inj’d vs Ole Miss leaving Jefferson (27 career
atts) the starter for the finale vs Ark. Miles said Jefferson will start the bowl but expects Hatch and Lee to play. RB Scott was banged up at the end of the yr but still made 1st Tm SEC and should be healthy for the bowl. WR LaFell was #2 in the SEC in rec pg, #3 in rec ypg. The OL starters avg 6’4” 316 led by 1st Tm SEC OG Johnson (6’7” 375). LSU is #26 on off and #29 on def in our rankings. DC Pelini left LY to become HC of Neb and was replaced by co-DC’s, Peveto & Mallory. LSU went from one of the top D’s in the country to 2nd last in the SEC in scoring def and last in the SEC in pass D (#36 in our pass eff D rankings). Though there may be a coaching change in the offseason, they will keep the staff intact for the bowl. Luckily the def will have 3 wks to prepare for GT’s option which LSU defenders said they haven’t seen since HS. The DL avg 6’4” 287 with 3 Sr starters. MLB Beckwith missed 2 full gms and wasn’t 100% and the secondary is inexperienced with 5 frosh & sophs in the 2 deep. LSU is #19 in our sp tms rankings led by 1st Tm SEC K David who has rewritten LSU’s record book. RS Holliday qualified for the Olympic trials (in 100M) and the team had a net of 37.2. ACC POY Dwyer is the feature RB in Johnson’s spread-option off. He is the 2nd GT player in the L/3Y to receive the honor (Calvin Johnson ‘06). Dwyer leads the ACC in rush yds and has rushed for 100 yds 9x’s TY to tie a GT record. WR Thomas is #5 in the ACC in rec ypg. GT’s OL avg 6’4” 290 with 0 Sr starters. LT Gardner elected to have shldr surg in Nov and was lost for the yr but was still selected 1st Tm ACC and RT Brown was lost with a spinal inj. The OL in led by LG Howard (2nd Tm ACC). GT is #3 in the NCAA avg 282 rush ypg (5.6) and all’d 18 sks (12.9%). GT has avg 402 ypg L/3 despite losing the 2 OL starters. GT has our #42 off and #37 def. Tech has one of the top DL in the country that avg 6’4” 278 with 3 Sr starters led by AA DE Johnson, 1st Tm ACC DT Walker, 2nd Tm ACC DT Richard and HM ACC DE Morgan (So). The DL allows 3.5 ypc and tallied 24.5 of the tm’s 32 sks. The LB corps has been banged up TY but could be healthy here. GT is #54 in the pass eff D all’g 196 ypg pass & is #9 in the NCAA with 18 int. The secondary is led by 2nd Tm ACC S Burnett who is tied #1 in the NCAA for int. GT’s sp tms struggled TY (#91 our rankings). GT is avg 19.4 ypr on KR’s and just 6.8 on PR’s. They allow 19.8 on KR’s and 8.5 on PR’s. GT
K Scott Blair ranks last in the ACC among bowl teams in FG’s and GT’s net punt avg is just 34.0. Many doubted Johnson could bring his option offense to a BCS school and succeed and he proved them wrong. GT has a shot at 10 wins for the 1st time S/‘98. LSU has lost 6 str ATS and lost the L2 reg ssn gms for the 1st time S/’81. Those are the exact reasons we’ll side with LSU. It’s time to motivate quality players to play to their potential and a fresh start to next year. LSU’s D is loaded with NFL caliber players and given extra prep time the option will be containable. Expect LSU to show their pride after being instilled as a 4 pt dog.
FORECAST: LSU BY 7
RATING: 4* LSU
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Randizzle's pick's with a message:

It's obvious i'm struggling right now, so I do not advise tailing blindly (nor have I ever). Here are my plays for tomorrow. Play em, fade em, or disregard. No write-ups, because frankly, write-ups don't produce winners. Hoping to get back on track personally with these plays, and if it does not work out, I will keep grinding it out.

1. Air Force +4 (2 Units) Bodog
2. Pittsburgh +2 (2 Units) Bodog
3. Georgia Tech -4 (2 Units) 5 Dimes

Good Luck . I could sure use some.
Randy <!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brian Hansen

Bowl GOY Minn

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rocketman

Wednesday 12-31-08 Opinions (67% with opinions)

Georgia Tech
Kansas
Boston College
Pittsburgh
Houston
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ETHAN LAW:

Verdict: Minnesota 24, Kansas 28
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON MINNESOTA +10 -$115

Verdict: LSU 27, Georgia Tech 20
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON LSU +4.5 -$115
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Western Michigan (basketball and football) last night.
The deficit is 435 sirignanos.

Today, with one final chance to show a profit for 2008, the picks are:

Air Force (and over)
Oregon State (and over)
Vanderblit (and under)
Kansas (and over)
LSU (and under)

 

[brady1983]

Larry Ness Wednesday

Larry's 25-Club Bowl Play (1st of 2)-Day

make Houston the play in this game. Houston's last bowl win came in 1980, when the Cougars beat another service academy school, Navy, 35-0 in the Garden State Bowl. There will be no shut out for the Cougars this time but can't you see "the circle of life" setup here? Houston ends its bowl drought with a convincing win over a very overrated Air Force team, whose lone win over a quality opponent this year came in that September 13 game against Houston (I've already explained that!)

Larry's LV Insider-CFB (2-0 in the bowls)


Las Vegas Insider on Ga Tech




Larry's 7* Big 10 Showdown

Big 10 Showdown on Michigan

 

[theredwiggler]

Budin has a play today! Cali Cartel 25 star! Bout time!

Happy New Years everyone!

Budin: 25 dime Georgia Tech! Paid and confirmed!

I'm off to work, enjoy!ope:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tim Trushel

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->20* pittsburgh
reg/ minnesota

 

[Ryeguy]

Teddy Covers From Sportsmemo Radio show said his SU/ATS Winners for Wild Card Weekend Are;

Baltimore
Atlanta
San Diego
Minnesota

 

[jrgold1124]

Here it is what you all been waiting for ATS Bowl GOY
10 units on LSU (+4) over Georgia Tech, 7:30
5 units on Houston (-3 1/2) over Air Force, 12:00
4 units on boslton College (-3 1/2) over Vanderbilt, 3:30