New cases? new hospitalizations? or new deaths? What matters most?

[Willie99]

Silly arguments are constantly being made about new cases, which is really silliest and most superficial argument of them all. We have more new cases, and they will continue to spike as long as TESTING SPIKES. You see, that argument is really about new KNOWN cases. If we don't test, we don't know about them, because those inflicted are asymptomatic. Those with symptoms are always tested

New deaths can never be called "silly or superficial", because someone died. But new deaths are a lagging indicator, nothing to do with new cases.

NEW HOSPITALIZATIONS, that's what matters most. And those numbers have been steadily improving everywhere in the country. Even as new cases surge, new hospitalizations plummet. Just think about that for a moment.

 

[Knightrofins]

Hospitalizations freak me out the most.

Thats what had me freaked out the most when we're hearing hospitals are overcrowded and not enough beds and we'd have to be treated in parking garages or shit like that. Throw it not being able to see my wife and kids and that SCARED me big time.

People want to talk shit to me and call me names, thats fine. Thats a HUGE reason i havent had a life these past 2 months and i'm not complaining

 

[Heatwave]

I would think by now, with states ranging from 3-5% testing of entire populations, we have a large enough sample size to make some overall determinations. The data will never be 100% perfect, but no data set is.

Most states are ranging from 3-10% positive rates/test, with almost all states decreasing. Meaning that the numerator is not rising in the same ratio as the denominator - less people are getting it as time goes on. Key number, because less people getting it means less hospitalizations.

The hospitalization rate is important, but you would think that hospitalizations as a percentage of positives should stay constant. However, as we test more, we probably are uncovering more people that are asymptomatic (not as serious), which should lead to this going down. This data is harder to find on a new hospitalization basis, but total hospitalizations are in a range of 15-22%.

So, using the worst rates per 100 people (10% positive/test ratio, 25% hospitalization rate if positive):

10 people will test positive
Of those 10, 2 will be in the hospital. So 2.5 out of 100 people end up in the hospital. At worst rates.

At some better rates (Florida)

3 of 100 test positive (3% rate)
18% hospitalization rates
0.54 out of 100 people end up in hospital


However, this data is not fully accurate either, since it has been shown that 70-80% of the issue is in older people.

 

[Willie99]

Hospitalizations freak me out the most.

Thats what had me freaked out the most when we're hearing hospitals are overcrowded and not enough beds and we'd have to be treated in parking garages or shit like that. Throw it not being able to see my wife and kids and that SCARED me big time.

People want to talk shit to me and call me names, thats fine. Thats a HUGE reason i havent had a life these past 2 months and i'm not complaining

I have no problem with you (or anyone) thinking and behaving as you do

My problem is with people telling everyone else we have to do whatever they decided is best. And I have a problem with anyone who spews negative bullshit each and every time, usually citing inaccurate data or articles or just fucking stupid shit. And it never stops

It's OK to disagree

 

[Shub]

They’re trying to correlate reopenings to new cases. I thought there was a 14 incubation period. How did all these people get sick within 1-2 days? Let’s then make a vaccine for something with a 99% survival rate. Shit don’t add up.

 

[bodyforlife]

The Useful Idiots and their game plan is so predictable at this point that it's really not worth the time to even engage them. Not to mention, they constantly double down on their own ignorance.

 

[Michelangelo]

I am in total agreement with your intended point, Heatwave. However even the hospitalization rate can be misleading.

Up here in Mass the word is that unless your primary care doc thinks that you have it AND are at risk, they just want you to shelter in place WITHOUT getting tested. So if the hospitalization rate seems high up here in Mass it is because only patients with advanced and threatening symptoms are told to go to the hospital to get tested.

The rate of death divided into the population counts. But of course that rate is being fluffed for a few different reasons.

The only number that really counts is the number of people dead without a co morbidity. Then I would like to see those people defined further by age. But those numbers are almost impossible to come by because they would be so small as a percentage of the population that the shut down policymakers would be made to look like fools. Can't have that, can we?

 

[Albatross]

It was all supposed to be "flattening the curve". Those 3 words are extinct now.

 

[Heatwave]

Agreed. Actually many of the numbers can be somewhat misleading. Death count is very important, although people who lean towards the "get the death rate to zero" will point to any amount of deaths as too many. I don't like people dying of this, but the risk/reward balance has gone out of whack, especially when you start peeling back the layers - population density, age, etc.

Your point about hospitalization rate is true, but Massachusetts is interesting. You have tested 7% of the population, which is pretty high. NY is a little over 8%, but places like Florida,Texas and Pennsylvania are down around 2-4%. So, more people are getting tested than maybe is being touted up there.

Hospitalization rate in Mass is right in line with most other states- 19% of positive tests have ended up in hospital over time. Again, I think this number should remain fairly constant, unless there is some weird mutation or it starts hitting certain demographics hard that cause more hospitalizations.

Currently 11% of tests turn out positive in Mass- that is on the high end. Much lower than 29% from mid April and trending in the right direction.

Deaths are "high" there. One death per 1,100 residents. As opposed to Florida, where it is one death per almost 10,000. But without other info such as demographics, these numbers have no perspective. But looking at it another way - Massachusetts death rate is .09% of total population. Florida is .01%. Miniscule numbers. And all states are trending in right direction, generally with total deaths per day.

What does all this mean? Some places have it worse than others, due to population density, age demographics, socio-economic demographics, health factors, and probably weather. All that said, gradually opening up the economy has not been the death knoll that many have preached would happen. We were told there would be "significant spikes". Not the case. There is no data set that I have seen that makes me think otherwise.

I am in total agreement with your intended point, Heatwave. However even the hospitalization rate can be misleading.

Up here in Mass the word is that unless your primary care doc thinks that you have it AND are at risk, they just want you to shelter in place WITHOUT getting tested. So if the hospitalization rate seems high up here in Mass it is because only patients with advanced and threatening symptoms are told to go to the hospital to get tested.

The rate of death divided into the population counts. But of course that rate is being fluffed for a few different reasons.

The only number that really counts is the number of people dead without a co morbidity. Then I would like to see those people defined further by age. But those numbers are almost impossible to come by because they would be so small as a percentage of the population that the shut down policymakers would be made to look like fools. Can't have that, can we?

 

[StevieRay]

It was all supposed to be "flattening the curve". Those 3 words are extinct now.

Lol. It was “flatten the curve” now it’s “wait till a vaccine”

people are out and about for this Labor Day weekend , I sat on 285 for 45 minutes , lol

 

[Albatross]

Lol. It was “flatten the curve” now it’s “wait till a vaccine”

people are out and about for this Labor Day weekend , I sat on 285 for 45 minutes , lol

Traffic is crazy... like old times. People can see through the BS. Heading to my condo in Miramar for 2 weeks!

 

[StevieRay]

Paddled the Hooch, heading to lake in morn then to SanDestin Monday

 

[Willie99]

Agreed. Actually many of the numbers can be somewhat misleading. Death count is very important, although people who lean towards the "get the death rate to zero" will point to any amount of deaths as too many. I don't like people dying of this, but the risk/reward balance has gone out of whack, especially when you start peeling back the layers - population density, age, etc.

Your point about hospitalization rate is true, but Massachusetts is interesting. You have tested 7% of the population, which is pretty high. NY is a little over 8%, but places like Florida,Texas and Pennsylvania are down around 2-4%. So, more people are getting tested than maybe is being touted up there.

Hospitalization rate in Mass is right in line with most other states- 19% of positive tests have ended up in hospital over time. Again, I think this number should remain fairly constant, unless there is some weird mutation or it starts hitting certain demographics hard that cause more hospitalizations.

Currently 11% of tests turn out positive in Mass- that is on the high end. Much lower than 29% from mid April and trending in the right direction.

Deaths are "high" there. One death per 1,100 residents. As opposed to Florida, where it is one death per almost 10,000. But without other info such as demographics, these numbers have no perspective. But looking at it another way - Massachusetts death rate is .09% of total population. Florida is .01%. Miniscule numbers. And all states are trending in right direction, generally with total deaths per day.

What does all this mean? Some places have it worse than others, due to population density, age demographics, socio-economic demographics, health factors, and probably weather. All that said, gradually opening up the economy has not been the death knoll that many have preached would happen. We were told there would be "significant spikes". Not the case. There is no data set that I have seen that makes me think otherwise.

Or sometimes the death rate is increased by simply putting COVID-19 cases into nursing homes, it can be that simple

 

[Knightrofins]

Lol. It was “flatten the curve” now it’s “wait till a vaccine”

people are out and about for this Labor Day weekend , I sat on 285 for 45 minutes , lol

Labor Day?? Ha

 

[StevieRay]

Labor Day?? Ha

Lol. Memorial Day weekend