NCAA WEEK 6 151

[one51rum]

I did cancel my Duke +8 play and am grabbing them at a better number not changing my play, I do not even have to pay anything to do it they are +9.5 now but tomorrow I should be able to buy up to 10 ...just passing this along since many books now let you do it, it does not make sense not to

added a 3 team 7 pt teaser I do not expect people to follow them, but I post them anyway kind of gives an idea s to who I like I guess, I should have bet Navy when they were 8 but if I can get under 10 I do like them, air force coming off a road loss at Wyoming, but Navy is rolling right now, but this is a RIVALRY so

Navy-3/WV+10.5/USC-1.5 +120 1 unit

 

[neil1314]

I did cancel my Duke +8 play and am grabbing them at a better number not changing my play, I do not even have to pay anything to do it they are +9.5 now but tomorrow I should be able to buy up to 10 ...just passing this along since many books now let you do it, it does not make sense not to

added a 3 team 7 pt teaser I do not expect people to follow them, but I post them anyway kind of gives an idea s to who I like I guess, I should have bet Navy when they were 8 but if I can get under 10 I do like them, air force coming off a road loss at Wyoming, but Navy is rolling right now, but this is a RIVALRY so

Navy-3/WV+10.5/USC-1.5 +120 1 unit

Hey Rum, which book do you use that lets you cancel your bets?

 

[one51rum]

HardRock they have a thing when you bet games early that sits there and its a early cash out option , closer to game day it starts taking a little from ya, they do it with parlays during the games, like if I have a 3 team Parlay and 2 have won, and the 3rd is close they will try to get me to take a shorter amount, and even if your losing the 3rd it may offer ya like 20% of your money or 10% it differs but on STR up plays like that I put in Sunday or Monday it will have a early cash out option I did it last week later and had to pay like a partial juice I think FanDuel and others have something like it too

 

[one51rum]

well just took Duke +9 so gained a point

added Boston College +1 vs Virginia hoping Castellanos plays I think he will , and they have won last 2 games though they were close, this one could be too, but I think they are the play here

Boston College +1

Duke+9


Updated list of plays this week so far
Indiana-13
Pitt-2
UNLV-4
Army-8.5
S.Carolina +10
Duke +9
Stanford+9
Arizona-6 Bigger 1.5 units
Over 65 WV/Okla st 1 unit
Boston College +1 -105 1 unit

 

[vinnyvegas]

GL Rum...love IU

 

[indiana]

R/151.....thank you for the updated info buddy....
appreciate your effort with the rotation numbers....
have a great weekend......indy

 

[one51rum]

teaser for tonight even though I hate the 3.5 pt line move I missed out on, I am teasing Troy to +19.5/and SH-4 1 unit

 

[one51rum]

some key factors to maybe go against Sam Houston tonight now I know I teased SH down but 10.5 is another story, 1st off you have a possible letdown spot for Sam Houston who were down 22 points last week early yet came back to win over a good Texas state team who also plays tonight, then also UTEP has had an extra week off to prepare, 10.5 and of course buy to 11 is maybe the key here....but they rank way down in pts per game which I do not like at 14.5 pts per game, and SH ranks 19th in rushing this year with over 215 yds per game so its a tricky game

and I did write early that I thought maybe 16.5 was too many to give Troy at home, and you have Texas state coming in after blowing a huge lead vs SH, but you also have to say they did find a way to get that huge lead, and if they do something like that tonight, Troy does not have the offense that SH has, and it would be really hard for them to come back even at home...Texas state was up 22-0 aat the end of the 1st Qtr and were up 32-21 at half, so SH scored 21 in the 2nd qtr , and one thing that is impressive about SH is last week Texas state did return a fumble for a TD in the 1st to get that big lead, But SH came back all on drives and playing defense in the 2nd half, they put together long drives, both teams missed fg's in the 2nd half also, SH really gashed the Texas state defense running the ball last week with almost 300 yds rushing a, its not often a team gets down 22 pts and runs the ball the comeback to win but they did, but UTEP only averages 79 yds rushing a, I would think there is a better chance that since this is down to 13 that Texas state has a better chance to cover here and win by 14 , I mean UTEP has played tough teams, but the only things I see for them is the extra week, and Texas st coming off the bad loss, Troy has had issues and they will be able to throw a little but running it they have a hard time, can they stop the run ????

might just stick with my teaser and to be honest I might feel better teasing Texas st down to -6.5 but I did what I did just some odd games tonight , Texas's st is by far the better team, and SH is the better team , they both will need turnovers I think to stay in it , I teased Troy up because they are at home and Texas st is coming off the huge loss in a game where they had a big lead but on the other side, its going to be hard for Utep to stop the run, and its going to be hard to score a lot of points, I do not see them holding SH to like 20 pts, Utah will need to score 20 to maybe cover in my opinion ...maybe be a night to watch the NFL game

gl all 151

 

[thebiggbird]

Troy isn't an offensive team. Lost a great coach in Summerall. My take on this Troy team is they might get blown out tonight. It's a home game at THE VET. Troy historically is good in these situation. This year not.

 

[one51rum]

Troy isn't an offensive team. Lost a great coach in Summerall. My take on this Troy team is they might get blown out tonight. It's a home game at THE VET. Troy historically is good in these situation. This year not.

I agree that's what I was thinking in my write up like both favs to be honest I did a play on them -150 -11.5 after it started but did not want to post

 

[one51rum]

like I posted 2 days ago 3.5 pt line moves never cover , anytime the line moves like that go the other way its why I did a write up tonight pointing out that with it under 14 maybe go with Texas st,

from 2 days ago...just did not like what I seen about Troy so stayed away then tonight with it under 14 read what I wrote ..I hate big line moves even if they are going my way
Man o man I was dead on about the Texas st/Troy game line is down to 14 as I wrote I thought 16.5 was too many and now wish I maybe pulled the trigger right away one thing I am very good at is knowing where lines will move, and that is very important when it comes to wagering , but when I looked up Troy just did not like what I seen there.....and UNLV now -6 just like I said , and glad I took Army when it went to 9.5 it is 11 now

 

[one51rum]

Friday over 57 Unlv game -120
over 31.5 TT small play

Michigan State +24 1.5 units
I do like the Spartans in this spot, they hung in there vs Ohio st for awhile but turnovers hurt them, they have to take care of the ball, they would have covered last week if they did not turn it over, they have a decent defense ranked 30th in yards given up, they are averaging 132 yds on the ground , they do have some pretty good rec's and good rb's bit their defense I think will keep them in this game, they have 12 sacks this year and 16 tackles for loss, and 5 int's , maybe a 1st half play also getting 24 I like because I think this will be a much closer game, maybe within 14 or less, Mich st is avg 21 pts a game, if they get 20 they cover easily in my opinion , also Oregon is 1-3 ats this year so far

also I like Coastal Carolina at home -5 over old Dominion, CC has had a extra week off, ODU comes in after winning at BG, ODU is averaging just 20 pts a game and giving up almost 27 a game, and Coastal is averaging 37 pts a game but are giving up 27 but that's because Virginia put up 43 on them by running the ball for 300 yds, But coastal did throw for 300+ in that game and I think they might be able to throw it here,

also I am going to take Baylor +14 at Iowa st, Baylor has lost 2 tuff games in their last 2, they came back against BYU but lost, and then the heartbreaker at Colorado, so they do have a good team, and their defense is what I like, Iowa st has a very good defense also, and Iowa st only scored 20 against Houston and they beat Iowa 20-19 , but I think Baylor will be able to score enough in this game to stay close, I just think 13.5 is a lot here, they also only scored 21 vs North dakota , if they only score 20-23 pts I think Baylor covers this game, they are not that bad, they score 14 they cover this game , I have to take 14 buying up a half pt here 23-16 something like that, unless Baylor just turns it over a lot , after that tuff loss at colorado I was impressed how they came back against a good BYU team, they still have fight in them look for a lower scoring game, the total is only 44.5 and I have to take 2 td's in that kind of game

also I added a half unit on Stanford

Confirmation: 6180318​

Date Placed: 10/04/24 00:38:57
Header:
INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 123.00 win 100.00
Bet Details:

1. 373 Baylor +14 Buy ½ (-123) risk 123.00 win 100.00 (NCAA FB)

Michigan st +24 1.5 units HardRock

Over 57 Unlv/Syracuse game 1 unit

 

[one51rum]

Updated list of plays this week so far
Indiana-13
Pitt-2
UNLV-4
Army-8.5
S.Carolina +10
Duke +9
Stanford+9 1.5 units
Arizona-6 Bigger 1.5 units
Over 65 WV/Okla st 1 unit
Boston College +1 -105 1 unit
Michigan State +24 1.5 units
Baylor+14 1 unit
OVER 57 Unlv/Syr

gl 151
5 fav's and 6 dogs and 2 totals

if you read my updated write up tonight I pretty much said both fav's should cover and they did screwed myself on the teaser but I did lay 11.5 at -150 right after kickoff and I wish I had bet SH too glad they went over 30.5 TT though both fav's went over their TT tonight Tex st was 35.5 and SH was 30.5 SH just went up by 20 with 2 mins left ...many were on Utep too just did not see how but they did score 21 that was surprising .....still looking into coastal Carolina line is fishy seems low

 

[one51rum]

5.5 hours till horses have to sleep gl everyone

 

[pizza]

love your writups
good luck this weekend

 

[one51rum]

well I bet OVER 57 yesterday and now its 55.5 and I still like the OVER here, Syracuse has went under last 3 games, and I think this could add some value here, UNLV is avg 45 pts a game, I do not think Syracuse has played an offense like this yet, I still like UNLV tonight I do have it at -4 it is now 6, I think you will have many taking Syracuse tonight, not sure why, if they do win or cover it will be due to UNLV turning it over and I do not think that happens, people love going against so if it happens they look good, unless someone gives a good write up as to why I usually do not pay attention , you got to explain shit to me....lol I kind of favor maybe the under 51 in the TCU game tonight but its not a play just my opinion, I mean Houston has been blanked 2 games in a row, and TCU has the 20th ranked pass defense, so I do not see Houston having a great passing attack tonight, so maybe an under play , I also would maybe take TCU here even though they have not been covering, this could be a 30-10 game maybe , the other game no opinion at all

Mich st +24 now 23
unlv -4 now -6
and the OVER 57 now 55.5

 

[one51rum]

am looking at San Jose st -7 and Michigan +2 for tomorrow just something about Michigan I liked it Sunday night and washington's offense has not been really good, actually not good, and I think Michigans defense will be good, and their offense should score enough I am seeing a 21-16 type of game at Washington , and was impressed with how San Jose came back at Washington st and scored 52 pts I think they can score 37+ tomorrow

 

[one51rum]

Just seen Baylor now +11.5 this line move does not worry me, it makes sense actually , Ball st is a bad defensive team, w.michigan I think can cover this, its 10 but I went to -9 laid more juice , w.michigan has just faced much better teams, and now their in a conf game and I do think they will turn things around here, 17+ pt win

w.michigan -9 -125 1 unit

and coastal Carolina has dropped to -4 now and I just do not see it, rule 1 do not let line moves worry you if you handicapped the game, unless its due to injury or weather and I do not see that here, coastal should be able to score in this game, I want to bet them but have not yet if I do I will post

 

[one51rum]

well I was 2-0 this year on unders and damnit I said the Houston game would be an under and it won I did not bet it but maybe someone did this UNLV game is crazy back and forth but lots of scoring like I thought we got the over even though the line dropped it still came through now need UNLV to hold them and get the ball back 31-31 friggin Mich st fumbles at the 2 I hope that 7 points is not what will cost me..really thought Mich st would score 10-14 pts maybe not

 

[one51rum]

UNLV OVER TT winner