NCAA Week 10/4 (YTD 49-33 ATS 59.8%)

[mt]

NAS -

UCF QB out, started last 34 games, junior QB in. Buffalo is HORRIBLE - but that bad? Thoughts?

Also - Wouldn't you like Hawaii more since it's -10 and you got them at -12.5???

 

[NASDAQ]

mt-

I never take injuries into play really to be honest with you. The line dictates the injury for the most part. The fact that UCF is laying 24 w/o their 1st QB and the fact that they are winless ATS this year make me like that pick a lot.

About Hawaii...I don't like the fact that the line dropped from 12.5 to 9.5 and lower. Sure, the -10 is a better line, but for the most part, I don't want to get Vegas help with my picks. I still hope Hawaii can win this game by 2 TD's on the road, but we will see.

Good luck

 

[BZ]

nasdaq,
since your totals have been on fire this year what are your thoughts on the Cincy OVER 40.5. Their games have been averaging 43 points over the last 5 years and Cincy's D has been giving up yards in a big way last couple. Also like So Miss and the points.

Thanks and good luck this week.

 

[NASDAQ]

BZ, don't like the over in that Cincy game for a few reasons.

Avg Offense of both teams = 44.5 pts
Avg Defense for both teams = 43 pts

That stat right there tells me playing the OVER is too easy...there is a reason the line is gapped down 3-4 points, especially off a key number like 42.

Another thing that makes this bet look easy is the fact that they both went over 40.5 in their respective games last week...to me, makes it a very bad spot to play the Over again this week. Just my $0.02, take care and good luck.

 

[BZ]

nasdaq,
Thanks for the opinion. Good luck today.