Your add on's hurt you. You had it right going in. I like your Arizona State play. Duke does not want to be there. Pass on the rest.
AZ State traditionally play like a bunch of big babies if they don't get in a Major Bowl which is puzzling because they haven't gotten into a major Bowl in, like,
AGES and even then they still lose,
AZ State feels too easy here.
I don't want to talk anyone off this play but just sayin'....it feels too easy.
and there are other things that might factor in:
AZ State has the ability to SMOKE Dookies in this spot but Sun Devils Bowl History frightens (1-5 ATS in its last six bowl games).
As a 6.5-point favorite or higher this season, Arizona State is 5-1 straight up but
only 2-4 ATS. In its last outing, ASU lost 42-35 as a 2-point dog on the road to Arizona
with a trip to the Pac-12 title game on the line.
Similar thing happened LY, they got taken apart by Stanford
to lose The Pac 12 Championship then went to the Holiday Bowl as dd faves (-14 IIRC) and were owned by Texas Tech, losing outright.
ASU's has given up just under 35 points per game in its last four contests
and this game absolutely means more to Duke than ASU, which was hoping to play for the national title at times this season, rose to #6 in the rankings at one time (
& fairly late in the season).
The Sun Devils can get to 10 wins with a win just like Duke, but that milestone is not very special to Arizona State.
For Duke, however, this would be only the second time ever that it won 10 times in one season. The other time it happened was 2013.
Arizona State is the better team, played a far tougher schedule, and may be the toughest offense the Blue Devils have seen.
Georgia Tech might be the best comparison Duke faced, though GT has a different style of offense, and the Blue Devils won and covered that game on the road as a dog.
S.O.S. aside,
which is a big statement to make I know....(and AZ State is a PLAY ON per Sagarin SOS Bowl System)
Duke had among the best defenses in the country this season as they limited their opponents to just 20.6 points per game (20th).
The Blue Devils will need to keep ASU running back D.J. Foster in check and the Dookies ranked a mediocre 97th in the nation against the run (2196.2 ypg).
I know I've only added uncertainty but this play looks too easy and I wanted people to know AZ State is far from a "lock" in recent Bowl Games, ATS and SU. I expect Joe Public to be heavy on AZ State....tread lightly. If it does wind up being a huge public love play I'm gonna have no choice but to side with Duke and as many points as I can get. I'll definitely be taking a very small play on Duke ML cuz AZ State Bowl History demands the ML Dog be shown respect here.