1/22
Yesterday's results (3-2) are below with updated statistics...
1Q Bos -1.5 (-120) Value = 3.2 Reliability = 0.0 WON
3Q Bos -1.5 Value = 2.4 Reliability = 0.0 LOSS
1Q Cle -0.5 (-120) Value = 5.4 Reliability = 14.26 WON
2Q Was +1 Value = 4.1 Reliability = 100.0 WON
3Q OKC +2 Value = 4.0 Reliability = 100.0 LOSS
Overall Record: 30-23
By Quarter
1Q: 11-8
2Q: 9-7
3Q: 8-6
4Q: 2-2
By Value Range
2.4 - 2.9: 12-7
3.0 - 3.4: 5-7
3.5 - 3.9: 4-3
4.0 - 4.4: 3-3
4.5 & up: 6-3
Flat Betting Record: Risked 52.40 U, Won 3.90 U, ROI 7.44%
I just started the 'reliability' angle yesterday, but eventually I'll try to track by that as well. It should be noted, and I should have said this yesterday, that although 100 is the 'perfect' reliability score, it may only be base on a few games for that team. I will put the number of games its based on after the reliability score. Hopefully then I can decipher whether or not its even worth calculating. Today's plays...
3Q Bos +1 Value = 3.2 Reliability = 0.0; ~4
So for the play above the ~4 means that the reliability is based on 4 games for these 2 teams with regards to my plays (it is a -100 to +100 scale, 0 being neutral). I want to play Was 2Q at +3.5, but it just misses the cut for a play, having a value of only 2.2. It might be worth it, but I will not add it as a play. Hopefully I can pick up a win with this tonight, and since its on TV, in-progress lines will be available at my book. If any are 'worthy' and I happen to be around to place a bet, I'll post it. Good Luck with whatever you play this evening.
Yesterday's results (3-2) are below with updated statistics...
1Q Bos -1.5 (-120) Value = 3.2 Reliability = 0.0 WON
3Q Bos -1.5 Value = 2.4 Reliability = 0.0 LOSS
1Q Cle -0.5 (-120) Value = 5.4 Reliability = 14.26 WON
2Q Was +1 Value = 4.1 Reliability = 100.0 WON
3Q OKC +2 Value = 4.0 Reliability = 100.0 LOSS
Overall Record: 30-23
By Quarter
1Q: 11-8
2Q: 9-7
3Q: 8-6
4Q: 2-2
By Value Range
2.4 - 2.9: 12-7
3.0 - 3.4: 5-7
3.5 - 3.9: 4-3
4.0 - 4.4: 3-3
4.5 & up: 6-3
Flat Betting Record: Risked 52.40 U, Won 3.90 U, ROI 7.44%
I just started the 'reliability' angle yesterday, but eventually I'll try to track by that as well. It should be noted, and I should have said this yesterday, that although 100 is the 'perfect' reliability score, it may only be base on a few games for that team. I will put the number of games its based on after the reliability score. Hopefully then I can decipher whether or not its even worth calculating. Today's plays...
3Q Bos +1 Value = 3.2 Reliability = 0.0; ~4
So for the play above the ~4 means that the reliability is based on 4 games for these 2 teams with regards to my plays (it is a -100 to +100 scale, 0 being neutral). I want to play Was 2Q at +3.5, but it just misses the cut for a play, having a value of only 2.2. It might be worth it, but I will not add it as a play. Hopefully I can pick up a win with this tonight, and since its on TV, in-progress lines will be available at my book. If any are 'worthy' and I happen to be around to place a bet, I'll post it. Good Luck with whatever you play this evening.
3Q Bos +1 Value = 3.2 Reliability = 0.0; ~4 WIN
Overall Record: 31-23
By Quarter
1Q: 11-8
2Q: 9-7
3Q: 9-6
4Q: 2-2
By Value Range
2.4 - 2.9: 12-7
3.0 - 3.4: 6-7
3.5 - 3.9: 4-3
4.0 - 4.4: 3-3
4.5 & up: 6-3
Flat Betting Record: Risked 53.55 U, Won 4.90 U, ROI 9.15%
Today's plays below...
1Q Mil +1.5 Value = 3.4 Reliability = 0; ~9
2Q Mem +1.5 Value = 2.5 Reliability = -14.28; ~6
2Q Min PK Value = 3.0 Reliability = 55.56; ~9
3Q NO PK Value = 5.0 Reliability = 55.56; ~9
4Q NO PK Value = 3.1 Reliability = 55.56; ~9
1Q Tor +1 Value = 4.6 Reliability = -37.5; ~8
1Q Cle -2 Value = 5.7 Reliability = 80; ~10
3Q Cle -1.5 Value = 3.4 Reliability = 80; ~10
Another 'correlated' play tonight as well on N.O. in the 2H. I will play any 2H line on N.O. up to -3. These plays are 2-0 so far. Other than that, all records and such posted above as well as all explanations of the numbers I post. Good Luck with your plays this evening.
Overall Record: 31-23
By Quarter
1Q: 11-8
2Q: 9-7
3Q: 9-6
4Q: 2-2
By Value Range
2.4 - 2.9: 12-7
3.0 - 3.4: 6-7
3.5 - 3.9: 4-3
4.0 - 4.4: 3-3
4.5 & up: 6-3
Flat Betting Record: Risked 53.55 U, Won 4.90 U, ROI 9.15%
Today's plays below...
1Q Mil +1.5 Value = 3.4 Reliability = 0; ~9
2Q Mem +1.5 Value = 2.5 Reliability = -14.28; ~6
2Q Min PK Value = 3.0 Reliability = 55.56; ~9
3Q NO PK Value = 5.0 Reliability = 55.56; ~9
4Q NO PK Value = 3.1 Reliability = 55.56; ~9
1Q Tor +1 Value = 4.6 Reliability = -37.5; ~8
1Q Cle -2 Value = 5.7 Reliability = 80; ~10
3Q Cle -1.5 Value = 3.4 Reliability = 80; ~10
Another 'correlated' play tonight as well on N.O. in the 2H. I will play any 2H line on N.O. up to -3. These plays are 2-0 so far. Other than that, all records and such posted above as well as all explanations of the numbers I post. Good Luck with your plays this evening.
1/23 Results
Yesterday (2-4), with updated statistics below. Three losses in NO/Min game, which I probably shouldn't have played with David West out. Ohh well...
1Q Mil +1.5 Value = 3.4 Reliability = 0; ~9 LOSS
2Q Mem +1.5 Value = 2.5 Reliability = -14.28; ~6 LOSS
2Q Min PK Value = 3.0 Reliability = 55.56; ~9 PUSH
3Q NO PK Value = 5.0 Reliability = 55.56; ~9 LOSS
4Q NO PK Value = 3.1 Reliability = 55.56; ~9 LOSS
1Q Tor +1 Value = 4.6 Reliability = -37.5; ~8 WIN
1Q Cle -2 Value = 5.7 Reliability = 80; ~10 PUSH
3Q Cle -1.5 Value = 3.4 Reliability = 80; ~10 WIN
Overall Record: 33-27
By Quarter
1Q: 12-9
2Q: 9-8
3Q: 10-7
4Q: 2-3
By Value Range
2.4 - 2.9: 12-8
3.0 - 3.4: 7-9
3.5 - 3.9: 4-3
4.0 - 4.4: 3-3
4.5 & up: 7-4
Flat Betting Record: Risked 62.75 U, Won 2.30 U, ROI 3.67%
I will post today's plays when lines are up.
Yesterday (2-4), with updated statistics below. Three losses in NO/Min game, which I probably shouldn't have played with David West out. Ohh well...
1Q Mil +1.5 Value = 3.4 Reliability = 0; ~9 LOSS
2Q Mem +1.5 Value = 2.5 Reliability = -14.28; ~6 LOSS
2Q Min PK Value = 3.0 Reliability = 55.56; ~9 PUSH
3Q NO PK Value = 5.0 Reliability = 55.56; ~9 LOSS
4Q NO PK Value = 3.1 Reliability = 55.56; ~9 LOSS
1Q Tor +1 Value = 4.6 Reliability = -37.5; ~8 WIN
1Q Cle -2 Value = 5.7 Reliability = 80; ~10 PUSH
3Q Cle -1.5 Value = 3.4 Reliability = 80; ~10 WIN
Overall Record: 33-27
By Quarter
1Q: 12-9
2Q: 9-8
3Q: 10-7
4Q: 2-3
By Value Range
2.4 - 2.9: 12-8
3.0 - 3.4: 7-9
3.5 - 3.9: 4-3
4.0 - 4.4: 3-3
4.5 & up: 7-4
Flat Betting Record: Risked 62.75 U, Won 2.30 U, ROI 3.67%
I will post today's plays when lines are up.
Yesterday's results (5-3) with updated numbers...I am done with the 'value' range part of this, as it has become a pain in the ass to calculate and it serves little to no purpose thus far. I will continue 'reliability' and tracking by quarter and team.
2Q NYK +2 WIN
1Q Orl -2 LOSS
1Q NJ -0.5 WIN
2Q Mem +0.5 WIN
1Q Cle +1 WIN
3Q Cle +1 WIN
2Q Was +2.5 LOSS
4Q Por -2 LOSS
Overall Record: 38-30
By Quarter
1Q: 14-10
2Q: 11-9
3Q: 11-7
4Q: 2-4
Flat Betting Record: Risked 71.95 U, Won 3.85 U, ROI 5.35%
1Q Phx +1.5 Reliability = 25.0; ~6
2Q Hou +0.5 Reliability = 0.0; ~6
Late games to come. I think Bos -5 1H looks like a good play as well, as point differential for the 1H greatly favors Bos here. Plus, Dal on the 4th game of a road trip and playing an early game. Just a thought. Good luck with your plays.
2Q NYK +2 WIN
1Q Orl -2 LOSS
1Q NJ -0.5 WIN
2Q Mem +0.5 WIN
1Q Cle +1 WIN
3Q Cle +1 WIN
2Q Was +2.5 LOSS
4Q Por -2 LOSS
Overall Record: 38-30
By Quarter
1Q: 14-10
2Q: 11-9
3Q: 11-7
4Q: 2-4
Flat Betting Record: Risked 71.95 U, Won 3.85 U, ROI 5.35%
1Q Phx +1.5 Reliability = 25.0; ~6
2Q Hou +0.5 Reliability = 0.0; ~6
Late games to come. I think Bos -5 1H looks like a good play as well, as point differential for the 1H greatly favors Bos here. Plus, Dal on the 4th game of a road trip and playing an early game. Just a thought. Good luck with your plays.
I just want to throw an idea your way. I love playing mechanical systems and find that the more complicated they are to track the better results you will find. Plus cutting down on the tracking each day is well worth it.
You can find computer programmers for little to nothing right now to write a program for you that you can just update each day and have all the information at your fingertips.
Keep up the good work, looks like you have a great idea.
An in-progress line fits the bill today, although I don't love it.
3Q Bos +1 Value = 4.2, Reliability = 7.69; ~7
The original line was 3Q Bos -2.5 before the game, so with the blowout, you get a 3.5 point move, which creates value in the play. In-play lines will be tracked separately with regards to the per quarter tracking.
3Q Bos +1 Value = 4.2, Reliability = 7.69; ~7
The original line was 3Q Bos -2.5 before the game, so with the blowout, you get a 3.5 point move, which creates value in the play. In-play lines will be tracked separately with regards to the per quarter tracking.
Should've followed my instincts on the IPLs, and not played them as they are 0-2. Ohh well, as the Bos -5 1H hit, so I'm happy about that. Final card for today with late games added...
1Q Phx +1.5 Reliability = 25.0; ~6
2Q Hou +0.5 Reliability = 0.0; ~6
4Q Chi +1 Reliability = -11.1; ~9
2Q Uta +2 Reliability = 50.0; ~6
4Q Uta +2 Reliability = 50.0; ~6
1Q LAC +3 Reliability = 55.56; ~9
3Q LAC +2.5 Reliability = 55.56; ~9
Ugly card to say the least, as its all road teams once again. Hopefully this thing picks the right quarters for those roadies to cover. I will not be doing anymore IPLs today, as I will not be around any longer to watch the games or check the lines...like I said above, they're 0-2 so far today. Hopefully the regular plays work as usual. Good Luck with your plays this evening.
1Q Phx +1.5 Reliability = 25.0; ~6
2Q Hou +0.5 Reliability = 0.0; ~6
4Q Chi +1 Reliability = -11.1; ~9
2Q Uta +2 Reliability = 50.0; ~6
4Q Uta +2 Reliability = 50.0; ~6
1Q LAC +3 Reliability = 55.56; ~9
3Q LAC +2.5 Reliability = 55.56; ~9
Ugly card to say the least, as its all road teams once again. Hopefully this thing picks the right quarters for those roadies to cover. I will not be doing anymore IPLs today, as I will not be around any longer to watch the games or check the lines...like I said above, they're 0-2 so far today. Hopefully the regular plays work as usual. Good Luck with your plays this evening.
A computer program would be ideal, especially if I had quarter totals for each game. I did that last year, and entered every quarter total for every game, and it did ok at best. I didn't really have a set 'system' to rank plays, or decide what made a play. It was more of a 'this looks good compared to the data, so I'll play it' kind of thing. Needless to say, it sucked entering that much data daily, and then trying to analyze it. This system is simple, everything is calculated for me, and I just go and peak at quarter differentials and the spreads for the plays. The value, which like I said earlier, I am dropping from tracking, proved to be rather useless as the lowest valued plays had the best record.
I said in an early post I expected 4Q to have the worst record, and its finally starting to trend that way. This whole 'reliability' idea based on team performance is too new to see anything thus far. After a week or two, I'll look at which plays fit best, and what is a good 'reliable' number to work with. Hopefully, things stay in the positive. And finally, all lines are -115, and the juice is catching up with me as I'm close to 100 plays now. Within the next week, I hope to be at a new book with -110 lines. That would yield a much better ROI (almost 2.5 more units assuming I'm around 50% winners) compared to the -115 plays. Good Luck.
Great day yesterday (sarcasm) going 2-5. I had the exact wrong quarters in LAC/GSt, as LAC covered 2Q and 4Q. IPLs went 0-2 as well. Hopefully pick it back up tonight as yesterday ate pretty much all my positive units.
1Q Phx +1.5 Reliability = 25.0; ~6 WIN
2Q Hou +0.5 Reliability = 0.0; ~6 LOSS
4Q Chi +1 Reliability = -11.1; ~9 LOSS
2Q Uta +2 Reliability = 50.0; ~6 WIN
4Q Uta +2 Reliability = 50.0; ~6 LOSS
1Q LAC +3 Reliability = 55.56; ~9 LOSS
3Q LAC +2.5 Reliability = 55.56; ~9 LOSS
Pre-Game Quarter Record: 40-35
By Quarter
1Q: 15-11
2Q: 12-10
3Q: 11-8
4Q: 2-6
Pre-Game Quarter Record: Risked 80.00 U, Won 0.10 U, ROI 0.125%
Other Records
IPLs: 0-2
Correlated Plays: 2-1
Personal Plays: 3-0
Basically at break even after yesterday, which just did me in. A couple of things I have noticed. One, do not wager on or against a team w/o one of their two best players. I will start eliminating these plays, as w/o that player the team just doesn't play anywhere close to their averages. This will be subjective to my decision on how important the player is. I don't like this subjectiveness in an objective system, but hopefully it will eliminate some losses. Also, like I said earlier, 4Q plays should be the worst, and they clearly are. They are the only quarter with a losing record. I will be giving them up as well. I will still post all 'potential' plays, and will simply make a note of whether it is a play or not with regards to these new 'rules.' Today's plays will be posted when lines are available.
1Q Phx +1.5 Reliability = 25.0; ~6 WIN
2Q Hou +0.5 Reliability = 0.0; ~6 LOSS
4Q Chi +1 Reliability = -11.1; ~9 LOSS
2Q Uta +2 Reliability = 50.0; ~6 WIN
4Q Uta +2 Reliability = 50.0; ~6 LOSS
1Q LAC +3 Reliability = 55.56; ~9 LOSS
3Q LAC +2.5 Reliability = 55.56; ~9 LOSS
Pre-Game Quarter Record: 40-35
By Quarter
1Q: 15-11
2Q: 12-10
3Q: 11-8
4Q: 2-6
Pre-Game Quarter Record: Risked 80.00 U, Won 0.10 U, ROI 0.125%
Other Records
IPLs: 0-2
Correlated Plays: 2-1
Personal Plays: 3-0
Basically at break even after yesterday, which just did me in. A couple of things I have noticed. One, do not wager on or against a team w/o one of their two best players. I will start eliminating these plays, as w/o that player the team just doesn't play anywhere close to their averages. This will be subjective to my decision on how important the player is. I don't like this subjectiveness in an objective system, but hopefully it will eliminate some losses. Also, like I said earlier, 4Q plays should be the worst, and they clearly are. They are the only quarter with a losing record. I will be giving them up as well. I will still post all 'potential' plays, and will simply make a note of whether it is a play or not with regards to these new 'rules.' Today's plays will be posted when lines are available.
Yesterday's results (1-3) put me in the negative overall. Hopefully this turns around...Updated stats below.
1Q Phx -1 Reliability = 37.5; ~11 LOSS
4Q Atl +0.5 Reliability = 29.47; ~12 LOSS
1Q NJ +0.5 Reliability = 42.31; ~8 LOSS
2Q Min +1 Reliability = -47.05; ~12 WIN
Pre-Game Quarter Record: 41-38
By Quarter
1Q: 15-13
2Q: 13-10
3Q: 11-8
4Q: 2-7
Pre-Game Quarter Record: Risked 84.60 U, Won -2.35 U, ROI -2.78%
Other Records
IPLs: 0-2
Correlated Plays: 2-1
Personal Plays: 3-0
Today's plays will be posted when lines come up.
1Q Phx -1 Reliability = 37.5; ~11 LOSS
4Q Atl +0.5 Reliability = 29.47; ~12 LOSS
1Q NJ +0.5 Reliability = 42.31; ~8 LOSS
2Q Min +1 Reliability = -47.05; ~12 WIN
Pre-Game Quarter Record: 41-38
By Quarter
1Q: 15-13
2Q: 13-10
3Q: 11-8
4Q: 2-7
Pre-Game Quarter Record: Risked 84.60 U, Won -2.35 U, ROI -2.78%
Other Records
IPLs: 0-2
Correlated Plays: 2-1
Personal Plays: 3-0
Today's plays will be posted when lines come up.
