NBA 2008-09, Week 6 thread...

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 24-18, +$1262
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 131-139-5
#1 picks: 21-17

Totals: 147-123-4
#1 picks: 18-20
=====================================

Day 39:

Still mad for not betting SA last night...#1 Totals have won 6 straight now (remember the 1-12 start?) and #1 Sides have won 3 straight...Hoping to stay hot for a few weeks, but time will tell...

I am almost positive I am betting Toronto, but I am going to wait for a spell, look over the injury situation more before deciding...

Sides:

#1 Tor +5
#2 Port +8
#3 GS +8.5
#4 Phi +8
#5 OKC +13
#6 Milw -4
#7 Min +6.5
#8 Ind +11
#9 LAC -1
#10 Was +12
#11 Atl -10.5

Totals:

#1 Port un 184.5
#2 Phi un 188
#3 Atl ov 215
#4 GS ov 208.5
#5 Tor ov 206.5
#6 Was ov 212.5
#7 Ind ov 206
#8 LAC ov 196.5
#9 Milw ov 186.5
#10 Min un 201.5
#11 OKC ov 203.5

BET:

Level 1 -- Portland/Boston under 184.5, laying $252.50 to win $250 -- Again, I played this at MatchBook...This should be a grudge-match...I look at portland and their last 7 games (6-0-1 to the Under) and see Unders against NY, PHOE, WAS & MIA...Boston hasn't had 3 straight Overs very often since KG and Allen came to town...I am hoping that Boston plays to the half-court pace of the Blazers, which they are certainly comfortable with...I think both teams will want to show the other just how good they are defensively and I think this game will be in the 80s...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[SaltyVeteran]

Good Luck Buddy

 

[JackARoot]

I'm back after about a month off. (even though I'v been watching) I'm with you on the Boston Under and I've seen you kick yourself over not taking the #1 side lately that I'm taking Toronto +5 (level 1). GL :toast:

 

[brewers7]

BET:

Level 1 -- Toronto Raptors +5 $250 to win $250 -- Again, I played this at MatchBook...Already talked about this one...Jay Triano takes over for Sam Mitchell and "the new coach's first game this season after a firing" is 2-0 ATS and both games went Over...Toronto on a NC6...This spot shapes up well for Toronto...I like taking good teams after a 30+ point blowout loss...New coach to boot...When a team plays their first game with a new coach, they generally will come out with a lot of energy for that first game...Thought about the moneyline, but I'll take the points with no juice, instead...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL... <!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

Random thoughts:

Streaks "Magic numbers"...

Depending on the season the "magic number" is either 7 or 8 when most streaks (C, NC, ov, un) end...I can remember seasons where the majority of the streaks ended at 7, and other years where the majority of the streaks ended at 8...So far, nothing has gone above 7 yet this year...MEMP just ended a NC7 Friday night...But several streaks are in play, including a few 7's...Only one Totals streak has hit 7, although PORT is on a 7-0-1 to the Under currently...

CLE -- C7
TOR -- NC7
DEN -- ov7
MIN -- NC6

Speaking of streaks of 7, my #1 totals have now won 7 straight and I'll be honest, most of my #1 winning streaks end at 7...


Cle/Char -- Cavs best ATS team in the league and they have covered 7 straight...Covered 10 of 11, also...CLE blowing teams out so badly right now, that they have had 5 straight Unders...CHAR had been a stone Under team, but with J-Rich back, the Overs are coming, 3 straight and 4 of 5 Over...Would be VERY hard for me to take this one Over, though...Larry Brown knows he cannot win a shoot-out here, look for him to slow it down...Schedule-makers kind to both of these teams thus far as CLE has had just 4 bk-2-bk situations all season and CHAR has (incredibly) had just 2 to this point...CLE 3-1 ATS in back-enders but 2-0 ATS when they and their opponent are both in back-enders, while both of CHAR's back-enders have been played when they and their opponent are both in back-enders, and the Bobcats are 1-1 ATS...CLE 3-1 to the Under in their back-enders and CHAR 2-0 to the Under in their back-enders...

NJ/Phi -- no line because Elton brand is a game-time decision with the hammy, but when the line does comes out, regardless of whether EB plays or not, I like NJ...Philly in a let-down spot off the big 4Q last night for a come-from-behind win at DET...NJ has covered 4 straight back-enders, winning all 4 games (3 of them on the Road)...Philly 2-4 ATS in back-enders, 1-1 ATS when them and their opponent are both bk-2-bk and NJ is 2-1 ATS in that same situational spot...NJ 4 straight Overs in their back-enders and 4-1 overall to the Over and Philly 3-2-1 to the Over in their back-enders...Philly also playing their 4th game in 5 nights and since they are at Home, the "default" pick goes to NJ here...

OKC/Mia -- OKC has covered 4 in a row and 6 of 7 now after a NC6...First game back off a 5-game road trip for MIA...Heat 2-0 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...OKC 4-2 ATS and 4-2 to the Over in back-enders...

LAC/Min -- Well, the Clips helped MEMP end their NC7 last night, so can they help Minny end their NC6 tonight??...Very, very rare to see something like this transpire, but I am too tired to dig through my database to see if this has ever happened before and if so, what were the results on the back-ender or next time out for the Clippers situation here?...LAC also a 4-in-5 so they are the "default" pick in this situation, but I don't know if I like them, as I see Minny seeing the Clips the same way MEMP saw them last night at Home: as a team that needs a win and they have the perfect opponent to get from...Clips 1-2 ATS and 2-1to the Over in back-enders and Minny 2-2 ATS and 3-1 to the Under in back-enders this season...

Memp/NO -- This h2h series has gone Over 10 straight games, speaking of streaks...MEMP obviously a big-time chart-play for me here...NO has won 10 of 11 SU (7-4 ATS) and MEMP has covered 4 of the last 6...Total just 194.5 and to be frank, it looks low, but the pace of the Clips/Grizz game last night was ridiculously SLOW, with just 147 shots and 33 FTs...NO 1-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not (but 0-2 ATS at Home), 2-1 to the Over in those spots, while MEMP is 1-3 ATS and 3-1 to the Over in back-enders this season...

GS/SA -- Any total below 210 with GS looks like a gift right now...Last 3 totals 263, 259 (OT) and 243...We all know SA has been an Under team the past few years, yet these 2 h2h are Over 7 of their last 8...GS WAY Over their last 2 back-enders...I think the Spurs may kill them here...Only 1 home game in their last 7 and now at SA...Spurs rested, but 0-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not...GS 2-1 ATS in back-enders...GS shot 54% from the floor last night, so I wondered about a let-down, shooting-wise, but checked last season with all games where they shot 53 or 54% and higher and they went Over in almost every game next time out...

Atl/Dal -- no line...no opinions...

Was/Chi -- Wiz a 4 of 5 and they are the default pick...have covered 3 straight...Wiz 2-2 ATS & 3-1 to the Under in back-enders this season...These 2 teams have gone Under 5 straight h2h...CHI 0-3-2 to the Under last 5 overall (in regulation)...

Utah/Phoe -- Utah 4 of 5 and the default pick...1-4 ATS in back-enders this season though (3-2 to the Under)...Phoe 2-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not...Suns have lost 4 straight and are reeling...Went Over all 4 of those losses...Utah Suddenly Under 4 in a row after being Over 8 of 9...Revenge game here for PHOE from an 11/17 loss at Utah...

Den/Sec -- Nuggets 7 straight Overs...Just got spanked at Home by SA on national TV last time out...SAC should be well-rested for this one, just their 2nd game in 7 days...They have lost 7 straight...These teams have gone Over 4 of their last 5 h2h...

 

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 25-19, +$1262
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 135-146-5
#1 picks: 21-18

Totals: 152-129-4
#1 picks: 19-20
=====================================

Day 40:

Raptors are just bad right now...Don't know what their problem is...But something is obviously very wrong there...

I read up on Memphis because I wanted to see why the pace was so slow last night and found out Coach Iavaroni shook up his starting lineup...Got 2 defensive guys in there and MEMP played with great defensive intensity last night...Will it carry over for any length of time?...Time will tell...

#1 Totals have won 7 straight...Most of these types of win streaks for me end at 7...Started the season 1-12 and am already almost at .500 at 19-20...18-8 last 26..."Returning to the mean" and hopefully well beyond...

There are four 4-of-5 games tonight and i like 3 of them: NJ, WAS & UTAH...Kind of wanna bet all 3, but will pass as I want to see the 4 of 5 trend for another weekend as it is off to a slow start (like it has done before) and when it starts slow, it generally heats up (and I mean, really heats up) in late DEC...

I was going to bet the GS/SA 1Q Over, but didn't expect 54.5...Vegas adjusting to these rash of 1Q Overs with GS...That number may keep me away from a bet...If SA kills GS, it may not hit 211...But I wonder if GS even gives a rats ass about defense right now...Last 3 WAY Over the vegas total and I wonder what their mind-set is for this game...7 of the last 8 Over h2h, so I shouldn't be afraid to bang this game total Over...Still debating...

Sides:

#1 Memp +14.5
#2 Utah +7.5
#3 Was +8.5
#4 NJ +2.5
#5 Atl +7
#6 Den -5
#7 Min -2
#8 OKC +10.5
#9 Cle -8
#10 SA -12


Totals:

#1 SA ov 211
#2 Cle un 185.5
#3 OKC ov 201.5
#4 NJ ov 196
#5 Was un 200
#6 Den ov 211
#7 Utah ov 205.5
#8 Memp ov 193
#9 Min un 194.5
#10 Atl ov 200

BET:

Level 1 -- Memphis Grizzlies +14.5, laying $255 to win $250 -- I played this at MatchBook...Grizz went with a new starting lineup last night and it worked...Reading the post-game comments, the players were excited and are hoping this "defensive intensity" carries over for several games...I was going to bet the Over, but will stay away after reading that the starting lineup changes were made because inserting Kyle lowery and Darko Milicic in place of Mike Conley and Marc Gasol was a move designed to get the grizz off toa more forceful start on defense, according to a quote from the Memphis Commercial Appeal article written by Ronald Tillery in today's paper...If we look h2h here, the Hornets have only covered 14.5 twice in the last 21 meetings (wins of 15 & 18)...Sure, NO has won 10 of the last 11 SU, but MEMP has covered 4 of the last 6...LOT of points here...

Level 1 -- Golden State/San Antonio over 209, laying $265 to win $250 -- I played this at MatchBook because this line was still listed there and the juice was only -106, so I had to take a shot...The Warriors simply not playging any defense...Their last 2 back-enders flew Over the total...7 of the last 8 h2h between these teams Over the total...May as well ride the GS Over train to the last stop (WAY Over 3 in a row), as anyting less than 210 seems like a bargain with GS games right now...


Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 26-20, +$1262
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 143-148-5
#1 picks: 21-19

Totals: 156-133-6
#1 picks: 19-20-1
=====================================

Day 41:

Horrible pick with MEMP last night as they never had a shot...I did mention in my Day 40 notes that I was thinking about betting NJ, WAS & UTAH (aa 4 of 5 plays) but would wait another week as the 4 of % has been cold...Well, Those 3 and the Clips ALL covered and the 4 of 5 default picks went 4-0 ATS...Missed opportunities...I did get lucky on the GS Over as i got a lucky line at MatchBook that was still there that the person who had put the line out there had not retracted after the total moved up...Since the widely available line was 211 at the time i posted my picks, for my tracking record of all picks, it'll count as a push, but obviously I won my bet...

Don't know why TOR is virtually a Pick here...Yhey have done nothing to earn this... A NC7...I did make them my #1 Side regardless...I actually hope they lose and don't cover because they have CLE next and i didn't check to see if CLE plays Monday, but if they don't and the Raptors lose today, then we have a super-duper RARE NC8 vs. C8 situation, and if this happens, historically, we have an almost "guaranteed" winner on our hands from a statistical trend point of view...We'l lsee what transpires...

No bets today unless a 2H gift presents itself...

Sides:

#1 Tor +2.5
#2 Det -6.5
#3 Ind +7.5
#4 Milw +13.5

Totals:

#1 Ind un 199
#2 Det un 207
#3 Milw ov 208
#4 Tor un 191

NO BETS...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[brewers7]

BET:

Level 1 -- Milwaukee/L.A. Lakers over 103.5, 2H, laying $250 to win $255 -- I played this at MatchBook...I did bet the Pistons in the 2H down 22, but couldn't post it as a bevy of customers came in and I was lucky to even get the bet in seconds before the 2H tip-off...As far as this game, the pace isn't bad for an Over...74 at he half and the game total is 211, so the 103.5 means that a 178 game total gets me a winner, 33 points under the original Vegas total...I'll play this EVERY damn time, especuiallt when there were 86 first-half shots and 21 FTs...31% shooting for MILW and 36% for LAL...I look for these shooting percentages to return to the mean, and if that happens, both teams will have to shoot 50% or better in the 2H and if that happens, easy Over...

GL...

 

[au_Gambler]

gl, on the same

 

[brewers7]

gl, on the same

Like the avatar...

 

[au_Gambler]

Big Eastwood fan. Loved the movie Where Eagles Dare.

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

Good stuff BREW.

I played HS ball, and played in college as well, and I think that's given me some sort of edge when it comes to this basketball betting gig.

All in all, I think most people over-think games and try to out think the books. Instead, I think the most important part to capping is simply looking at both teams, their talent levels. The game plans/styles that they're going to play against each other, and other various small things.

Enjoyed reading your stuff, keep up the good work, and good luck with your plays.

 

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 27-20, +$1512
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 146-149-5
#1 picks: 21-19

Totals: 157-136-6
#1 picks: 19-21-1
=====================================

Day 42:

My won/loss record on either the sides or totals is off by a game, so I will go back through all my previous posts and correct the error as I am anal about accuracy...I will also make a post about what I look for for 2h bets so people (who already do not do this) will know what to look for before bettign a 2H line...I will post this to begin my Week 7 thread...

Tonight, not a lot of time to cap, so my picks are mostly gut-shot picks...Miami heat line looks really high, but then I see Wallace is doubtful for CHAR...And he is important for the Bobcats...Don't believe me, well then look here for verification: http://www.82games.com/0809/0809CHA.HTM ... I still like CHAR, though...

Vegas is really adjusting these GS 1Q total lines...Opened at 58 and is now 58.5 for the 1Q tonight...I guess the days of making easy cash on the GS 1Q's are all but over, gotta pick my spots carefully from here on out...I haven't lost a 1Q bet yet this season and all of them have been 1Q Overs (mostly GS Overs)...MEMP is a quasi-chart play tonight and they looked great at Home their last home game, so i expect them to be under that 7.5 number tonight...With the GS over 220 (which is exactly where I put this total before it came out), I am a bit worried that a 4Q slow-down in a close game keeps this total Under a tad...

No bets today unless a 2H gift presents itself again...

Sides:

#1 Char +8.5
#2 Memp +7.5
#3 GS -1
#4 LAC +3.5

Totals:

#1 GS over 220
#2 Memp un 190
#3 Char un 187
#4 LAC ov 194

NO BETS...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

thanks brew

 

[Basket Case]

Nice

Just stumbled upon your thread. Nice posts throughout! :toast:

I will look at your thread from now on before venturing into any future NBA plays.

 

[brewers7]

Thanx guys...

Just a note to self, 20 points scored in the final 3 minutes of the half at OKC as the very slow pace for the game went frenetic those final 3 minutes...GS shooting 62% and OKC 39%...Not sure if there is justification for the Over in 2H as i don't like the overall pace and the shooting percentages are way too high to begin with...But taking OKC in the 2H makes sense here...GS (and NY) never good at holding big leads with their style of play...