ope:
Thanx guys...
Random thoughts:
Feeling cautiously optimistic here that maybe I am snapping out of this early-season funk...My Sides were 7-1 Tuesday and that was long overdue...#1 Sides losing streak snapped...#1 Totals have won 4 straight...If anyone is still following out there, I will say that one sign that I am getting hot is when my bets start to win EASILY for a spell...On Saturday, the GS/NY Over was about 40 points over the vegas total and never in doubt and on the same day, the Rockets won by 19 as 3-point chalk...The Wiz was easy on TUE...The signs are there...Hopefully I am heating up, but the next 3-to-5 days will tell for sure...Proceed with caution...
Memp/Atl -- ATLis a chart-play for me, pure and simple...The Hawks ended a NC7 and are now reversing that on a C2 and my "chart-play" stipulates that the C (Cover) streak will continue for a few games...For those of you unfamiliar with my chart-plays, whenever a C or NC or Over or Under streak of 5 (but preferably 6) or higher ends, the streak will immediately reverse itself and go the other way...Memphis is currently on a NC6, losing 6 in a row...I love chart-plays, but I love them a whole helluva lot less when the chart-play is 9-point chalk...Both teams have 3 days rest and are 1-0 ATS and 1-0 to the Over in this spot earlier in the season...MEMP 3 straight Overs coming into this game...One last factor to consider is that Josh Smith is back for this game for ATL, so there is the automatic "fade a team with an important player returning for their first game" to consider here...Lots of stuff clashing, probably a stay-away for me...
Port/Was -- PORT suddenly a beast on the Road now, at least, against the East...PORT is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS vs. the EAST on the Road, while they are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS against the WEST on the Road...WAS has yet to win 2 games in a row this year and this is important because most teams most seasons have a win streak of at least 2 by the end of the 4th week of the NBA season...We are now in Week 6...
Other teams that still do not have a win streak ar Charlotte and Oklahoma City and guess what?...They play each other tonight and both teams are coming off a win so one of them will have a win streak at the end of the night...Memphis & Minnesota also yet to have a win streak...
Back to Port/Was, though...PORT killed the Wiz at WASH last year...But are the Blazers looking ahead to Boston on Friday?...PORT 5-0-1 to the Under their last 6...These 2 teams h2h have a recent history of Unders...Like the under here...
LAL/Phi -- The Lakers won for the first time in Philly in the regular season last season in 8 years...Philly had won the previous 7 meetings h2h in Philly, but LAL won last year 106-101 on 12/21/07, about 6 weeks before Philly got hot and made their playoff run...Sometimes the best remedy for a real tough loss in the NBA is to have a game the following day...Sixers blew a late lead before winning in OT last night at CHI...Lakers lost to Detroit at Home earlier this season and then did NOT cover the next time out vs. the Bulls at Home (Lakers had 3 days rest)...I like the Under here, even though LAL has gone Over 5 straight...The Sixers are 4-0-3 to the Under their last 7...
Min/Orl -- Does Orlando crash back to reality here a bit?...Visiting team has won the last 4 meetings h2h...Minny Over 4 straight and ORL Over 2 straight and these 2 teams h2h Over 6 of 7...
NY/Cle -- Cavs already spanked the Knicks by 18 at MSG and it wasn't even that close as they led by 29 going into the 4Q...CLE is 2-0 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season and BOTH went Over...NY 2-1 ATS on back-enders and 2-1 to the Over...CLE Under 3 straight games although 2 of them were very close to going Over...They played a 220 at MSG...Not sure what their motivation is here after killing NY 8 days ago, but I guess they are good enough to accidently beat the Knicks by 20...5 straight have gone Over h2h here...
OKC/Char -- CHAR started the season 12-1 to the Under on the 1H line before going 2-2 their last 4 in the 1H...Still, 13-3 to the Under in the 1H is strong...CHAR showing signs of Overs and have been an Over team for the most part when they win...I simply do not think CHAR should be favored by 8 over anybody though...I am thinking about an Over play here, though, for sure...
Ind/Bos -- Can you say "revenge"?...Indy spanked the Celtics on 11/1 a month ago at Indy 95-79...And now a HUGE let-down spot for the Pacers after a BIG win against the Lakers last night on a last-second tip-in by Troy Murphy...But man, I HATE laying big chalk...Celtics 1-3 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not, all at Home...Indy 2-3 ATS on the back-end of back-to-backs this season...Don't know if I can ignore the revenge spot and let-down spot all rolled into one for a great situational spot, though...I may have to play the Celts...
Chi/Milw -- This is generally a strong spot where a team comes off a long road trip, plays one game at Home and then goes right back out and plays a Road game...You fade this team...CHI is that team this time...But I don't know if I can...A lot of things favoring MILW situationally here...CHI off an OT game last night, revenge spot for MILW after losing to CHI opening night...MILW 3 days rest here...MILW is tied for the 2nd best ATS record in the league with DEN, behind CLE...But they haven't covered 2 straight and it's kind of a quasi chart-play for me against MILW here...Another factor, I believe, is that although CHI is coming off this brutal "circus" road trip, the schedule-makers were kind enough to give them a 3-day break before Game 7 of the road trip at Philly, so the Bulls aren't as bad off as you might think for this spot...Also, as good as MILW is ATS-wise this season, they are 0-1 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not, a home loss to Toronto on NOV 1...CHI 2-2 SU & ATS on back-enders this season...
Phoe/NO -- The Hornets have absolutely taken over this h2h series with Phoenix, winning 5 straight and covering 7 straight...This used to be an Under series h2h, but now the last 4 have gone Over...The Suns seem to be in disarray, losing 2 straight at Home vs. Eastern Conference foes that are at or below .500 and they lost both games badly...Now they have to deal with the Hornets...Are Amare Stoudamire's comments a distraction?...Suns have played 3 straight Overs...
LAC/Hou no line -- Rockets have won and covered 5 straight h2h...Clips now 5-2 ATS after their 1-9 ATS start...
Mia/Utah no line -- Miami has won 9 straight h2h, covering 7 straight and 8 of 9...Heat 5th and last game of their Road trip...But they are catching Utah on a back-ender, just like NJ did 4 days ago at Utah and the Nets spanked the Jazz by 17 the night after the Jazz beat SAC...And last night, the Jazz beat, hmmm, SAC again...Hmmmmm...MIA 3 straight and 6 of 7 Over...
Random thoughts:
Feeling cautiously optimistic here that maybe I am snapping out of this early-season funk...My Sides were 7-1 Tuesday and that was long overdue...#1 Sides losing streak snapped...#1 Totals have won 4 straight...If anyone is still following out there, I will say that one sign that I am getting hot is when my bets start to win EASILY for a spell...On Saturday, the GS/NY Over was about 40 points over the vegas total and never in doubt and on the same day, the Rockets won by 19 as 3-point chalk...The Wiz was easy on TUE...The signs are there...Hopefully I am heating up, but the next 3-to-5 days will tell for sure...Proceed with caution...
Memp/Atl -- ATLis a chart-play for me, pure and simple...The Hawks ended a NC7 and are now reversing that on a C2 and my "chart-play" stipulates that the C (Cover) streak will continue for a few games...For those of you unfamiliar with my chart-plays, whenever a C or NC or Over or Under streak of 5 (but preferably 6) or higher ends, the streak will immediately reverse itself and go the other way...Memphis is currently on a NC6, losing 6 in a row...I love chart-plays, but I love them a whole helluva lot less when the chart-play is 9-point chalk...Both teams have 3 days rest and are 1-0 ATS and 1-0 to the Over in this spot earlier in the season...MEMP 3 straight Overs coming into this game...One last factor to consider is that Josh Smith is back for this game for ATL, so there is the automatic "fade a team with an important player returning for their first game" to consider here...Lots of stuff clashing, probably a stay-away for me...
Port/Was -- PORT suddenly a beast on the Road now, at least, against the East...PORT is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS vs. the EAST on the Road, while they are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS against the WEST on the Road...WAS has yet to win 2 games in a row this year and this is important because most teams most seasons have a win streak of at least 2 by the end of the 4th week of the NBA season...We are now in Week 6...
Other teams that still do not have a win streak ar Charlotte and Oklahoma City and guess what?...They play each other tonight and both teams are coming off a win so one of them will have a win streak at the end of the night...Memphis & Minnesota also yet to have a win streak...
Back to Port/Was, though...PORT killed the Wiz at WASH last year...But are the Blazers looking ahead to Boston on Friday?...PORT 5-0-1 to the Under their last 6...These 2 teams h2h have a recent history of Unders...Like the under here...
LAL/Phi -- The Lakers won for the first time in Philly in the regular season last season in 8 years...Philly had won the previous 7 meetings h2h in Philly, but LAL won last year 106-101 on 12/21/07, about 6 weeks before Philly got hot and made their playoff run...Sometimes the best remedy for a real tough loss in the NBA is to have a game the following day...Sixers blew a late lead before winning in OT last night at CHI...Lakers lost to Detroit at Home earlier this season and then did NOT cover the next time out vs. the Bulls at Home (Lakers had 3 days rest)...I like the Under here, even though LAL has gone Over 5 straight...The Sixers are 4-0-3 to the Under their last 7...
Min/Orl -- Does Orlando crash back to reality here a bit?...Visiting team has won the last 4 meetings h2h...Minny Over 4 straight and ORL Over 2 straight and these 2 teams h2h Over 6 of 7...
NY/Cle -- Cavs already spanked the Knicks by 18 at MSG and it wasn't even that close as they led by 29 going into the 4Q...CLE is 2-0 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season and BOTH went Over...NY 2-1 ATS on back-enders and 2-1 to the Over...CLE Under 3 straight games although 2 of them were very close to going Over...They played a 220 at MSG...Not sure what their motivation is here after killing NY 8 days ago, but I guess they are good enough to accidently beat the Knicks by 20...5 straight have gone Over h2h here...
OKC/Char -- CHAR started the season 12-1 to the Under on the 1H line before going 2-2 their last 4 in the 1H...Still, 13-3 to the Under in the 1H is strong...CHAR showing signs of Overs and have been an Over team for the most part when they win...I simply do not think CHAR should be favored by 8 over anybody though...I am thinking about an Over play here, though, for sure...
Ind/Bos -- Can you say "revenge"?...Indy spanked the Celtics on 11/1 a month ago at Indy 95-79...And now a HUGE let-down spot for the Pacers after a BIG win against the Lakers last night on a last-second tip-in by Troy Murphy...But man, I HATE laying big chalk...Celtics 1-3 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not, all at Home...Indy 2-3 ATS on the back-end of back-to-backs this season...Don't know if I can ignore the revenge spot and let-down spot all rolled into one for a great situational spot, though...I may have to play the Celts...
Chi/Milw -- This is generally a strong spot where a team comes off a long road trip, plays one game at Home and then goes right back out and plays a Road game...You fade this team...CHI is that team this time...But I don't know if I can...A lot of things favoring MILW situationally here...CHI off an OT game last night, revenge spot for MILW after losing to CHI opening night...MILW 3 days rest here...MILW is tied for the 2nd best ATS record in the league with DEN, behind CLE...But they haven't covered 2 straight and it's kind of a quasi chart-play for me against MILW here...Another factor, I believe, is that although CHI is coming off this brutal "circus" road trip, the schedule-makers were kind enough to give them a 3-day break before Game 7 of the road trip at Philly, so the Bulls aren't as bad off as you might think for this spot...Also, as good as MILW is ATS-wise this season, they are 0-1 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not, a home loss to Toronto on NOV 1...CHI 2-2 SU & ATS on back-enders this season...
Phoe/NO -- The Hornets have absolutely taken over this h2h series with Phoenix, winning 5 straight and covering 7 straight...This used to be an Under series h2h, but now the last 4 have gone Over...The Suns seem to be in disarray, losing 2 straight at Home vs. Eastern Conference foes that are at or below .500 and they lost both games badly...Now they have to deal with the Hornets...Are Amare Stoudamire's comments a distraction?...Suns have played 3 straight Overs...
LAC/Hou no line -- Rockets have won and covered 5 straight h2h...Clips now 5-2 ATS after their 1-9 ATS start...
Mia/Utah no line -- Miami has won 9 straight h2h, covering 7 straight and 8 of 9...Heat 5th and last game of their Road trip...But they are catching Utah on a back-ender, just like NJ did 4 days ago at Utah and the Nets spanked the Jazz by 17 the night after the Jazz beat SAC...And last night, the Jazz beat, hmmm, SAC again...Hmmmmm...MIA 3 straight and 6 of 7 Over...
BET:
Level 1 -- Boston Celtics -12.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- I hate laying the juice, but I believe this line will go up to 14, so I want to get it now...Revenge spot for the Celts (losing big to Indy at Indy a month ago) coupled with a let-down spot for the Pacers (after their big win against the Lakers last night) and although I hate laying big chalk in the NBA, I cannot ignore this situational spot...Celts have won 9 straight and covered 6 of their last 8...They will win, it's just a matter of whether they cover the number, so I need to get the 12.5 while it lasts...This would a Level 2 play under normal circumstances, but the big chalk prevents me from going to Level 2, I'll keep this as a Level 1 play...
Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...
GL...
Level 1 -- Boston Celtics -12.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- I hate laying the juice, but I believe this line will go up to 14, so I want to get it now...Revenge spot for the Celts (losing big to Indy at Indy a month ago) coupled with a let-down spot for the Pacers (after their big win against the Lakers last night) and although I hate laying big chalk in the NBA, I cannot ignore this situational spot...Celts have won 9 straight and covered 6 of their last 8...They will win, it's just a matter of whether they cover the number, so I need to get the 12.5 while it lasts...This would a Level 2 play under normal circumstances, but the big chalk prevents me from going to Level 2, I'll keep this as a Level 1 play...
Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...
GL...
================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 23-18, +$912
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 125-132-5
#1 picks: 19-17
Totals: 140-117-4
#1 picks: 16-20
=====================================
Day 37:
Running late and I am swamped here at work...I am liking some stuff as i think OKC is a great bet it if I can find another free 5 minutes to get another look at it...I'll just post picks as there are a zillion customers here and time is limited...
Sides:
#1 Bos -12.5
#2 OKC +8.5
#3 Phi +9
#4 Mia +5
#5 Memp +8.5
#6 Was +7
#7 Min +9
#8 LAC +11
#9 Phoe +8
#10 Chi +4
#11 NY +15
Totals:
#1 Was un 191.5
#2 Min ov 196
#3 OKC ov 192
#4 Bos un 200
#5 Mia ov 197
#6 Memp ov 199.5
#7 LAC ov 188
#8 Phoe ov 195.5
#9 Phi un 202
#10 Chi un 200.5
#11 NY un 216
BET (already posted):
GL... <!-- / message -->
================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 23-18, +$912
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 125-132-5
#1 picks: 19-17
Totals: 140-117-4
#1 picks: 16-20
=====================================
Day 37:
Running late and I am swamped here at work...I am liking some stuff as i think OKC is a great bet it if I can find another free 5 minutes to get another look at it...I'll just post picks as there are a zillion customers here and time is limited...
Sides:
#1 Bos -12.5
#2 OKC +8.5
#3 Phi +9
#4 Mia +5
#5 Memp +8.5
#6 Was +7
#7 Min +9
#8 LAC +11
#9 Phoe +8
#10 Chi +4
#11 NY +15
Totals:
#1 Was un 191.5
#2 Min ov 196
#3 OKC ov 192
#4 Bos un 200
#5 Mia ov 197
#6 Memp ov 199.5
#7 LAC ov 188
#8 Phoe ov 195.5
#9 Phi un 202
#10 Chi un 200.5
#11 NY un 216
BET (already posted):
GL... <!-- / message -->
================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
Random thoughts:
I told myself that when my 5-game losing streak ended on my #1 sides, I would blindly bet my #1 sides at Level 2 every game until I lose again...Well, I chickened out yet again, and didn't do it last night, and Boston did cover that big line...Anyway...
Thursday:
Phoe/Dal -- no line, no opinions yet...What I do know is that PHOE is 5-0 to the Over on back-ends of back-to-backs this season and 3-2 ATS...Always that "default" play to the Over for Nationally televised games unless evidence points you in the other direction, according to some people...
SA/Den -- Nuggets favored by 4 and the line will probably climb and maybe get to 5...My first blush reaction (within a micro-second of looking at the line) was "Wow, that line is too damn low, Denver will cover that easily"...But then the handicapping part of the brewers7 brain took over the analysis of the game and what we have here is:
1) a revenge spot for the Spurs after suffering a beat-down at Home to the Nuggets on 11/19, 81-71, but the Spurs trailed by 21 going into the 4Q...No Ginobili or Parker that game for SA, by the way...
2) Denver shot 59.8% from the field their last game, a 39-point butchering over Toronto at Home, and I have an "automatic fade of a team that shot 60% or higher their previous game" and this is close enough...
3) Public will be all over Denver as they are hot and the Spurs have gotten beat pretty bad their last 2 games (at HOU and at Home vs. Detroit)...
So when I consider some of these factors, I kind of like the Spurs now, being in a bounce-back and revenge spot...Not sure if I'll bet them yet, but I will certainly wait for the line to rise and then make a decision...
I told myself that when my 5-game losing streak ended on my #1 sides, I would blindly bet my #1 sides at Level 2 every game until I lose again...Well, I chickened out yet again, and didn't do it last night, and Boston did cover that big line...Anyway...
Thursday:
Phoe/Dal -- no line, no opinions yet...What I do know is that PHOE is 5-0 to the Over on back-ends of back-to-backs this season and 3-2 ATS...Always that "default" play to the Over for Nationally televised games unless evidence points you in the other direction, according to some people...
SA/Den -- Nuggets favored by 4 and the line will probably climb and maybe get to 5...My first blush reaction (within a micro-second of looking at the line) was "Wow, that line is too damn low, Denver will cover that easily"...But then the handicapping part of the brewers7 brain took over the analysis of the game and what we have here is:
1) a revenge spot for the Spurs after suffering a beat-down at Home to the Nuggets on 11/19, 81-71, but the Spurs trailed by 21 going into the 4Q...No Ginobili or Parker that game for SA, by the way...
2) Denver shot 59.8% from the field their last game, a 39-point butchering over Toronto at Home, and I have an "automatic fade of a team that shot 60% or higher their previous game" and this is close enough...
3) Public will be all over Denver as they are hot and the Spurs have gotten beat pretty bad their last 2 games (at HOU and at Home vs. Detroit)...
So when I consider some of these factors, I kind of like the Spurs now, being in a bounce-back and revenge spot...Not sure if I'll bet them yet, but I will certainly wait for the line to rise and then make a decision...
when i saw that DEN line i almost went to the book immediately. that usually doesnt work out to well. However, doing a slight review of the matchup i see no reason no to play them. Better, hot team at home, 7-2 ats at home. Home team has won 5 of last 6 and DEN won the road game. Under looks great in this one as well.
================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 24-18, +$1262
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 130-138-5
#1 picks: 20-17
Totals: 146-122-4
#1 picks: 17-20
=====================================
Day 38:
Felt rushed and didn't get to betting the OKC winner yesterday...Too bad, missed opportunity...#1 totals have won 5 straight...Despite the highway robbery on the late game on SAT that went for a tough loss, I am 7-2 my last 9 bets...Hoping to have turned the corner here...Time will tell...
Streaks to watch for near-future chart-plays:
Memp NC7
Tor NC6
Cle C6
Min NC5
Den ov6
LAL ov6
Port 6-0-1 to the Under last 7
Sides:
#1 SA +4
#2 Phoe +4
Totals:
#1 Phoe ov 207
#2 SA un 194
NO BETS...
GL... <!-- / message -->
================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 24-18, +$1262
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 130-138-5
#1 picks: 20-17
Totals: 146-122-4
#1 picks: 17-20
=====================================
Day 38:
Felt rushed and didn't get to betting the OKC winner yesterday...Too bad, missed opportunity...#1 totals have won 5 straight...Despite the highway robbery on the late game on SAT that went for a tough loss, I am 7-2 my last 9 bets...Hoping to have turned the corner here...Time will tell...
Streaks to watch for near-future chart-plays:
Memp NC7
Tor NC6
Cle C6
Min NC5
Den ov6
LAL ov6
Port 6-0-1 to the Under last 7
Sides:
#1 SA +4
#2 Phoe +4
Totals:
#1 Phoe ov 207
#2 SA un 194
NO BETS...
GL... <!-- / message -->
================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
Random thoughts:
Ok, I have no balls at all...Am heating up and knew that once that #1 sides losing streak ended after 5, it would reverse itself, because I have seen this pattern over and and over again over the years of tracking my picks...This is something I highly recommend to any serious cappers who want to make money at this in the long run...I told myself to play my #1 sides at Level 2 every day AFTER the streak was snapped and I only played BOS at Level 1 and then didn't play SA at all...I am an idiot, a baffoon, a moron...No guts...
LAL/Was -- Lakers end a quick 3-game eastern swing before heading back to Staples after tonight...Wiz have covered 2 straight for the first time this season...Lake-show should be able to name the score here, but these lines will reach a saturation point I would suspect, some time soon as they won't be able to keep covering this big chalk forever...Lakers Over 6 straight while Wiz 3-0-1 to the Under last 4...Wiz won't be able to score with them, but maybe they'll try and we get another Over...
OKC/Orl -- ORL won 6 straight h2h in this series, covering 4 straight & 5 of 6...OKC has covered 5 of 6 after a NC6 (chart-stuff there), and OKC Over 3 straight...
Min/NJ -- Nets have had 2 days to shake off that home blowout vs. the Wiz after a good road trip...Minny on a NC5 now, losing 3 straight...Minny has covered 8 of the last 9 h2h in this series, however...No opinions really, which means, I'll take the points as the default pick...
NY/Atl -- no line...Knicks seem to have more distractions than a newbie at the Bunny Ranch...Harrington awaiting word on a suspension or a fine for decking LeBron and since the King is the show-piece of the league right now, I assume the NBA office will "have LeBron's back" and give Al a one-game suspension here so others won't follow suit with future flagrant fouls against King James...With D'Antoni the new coach of the Knicks this year, all trends against the Knicks previous to this season are completely thrown out the window...Irrelevant...What is relevant is how teams have done against Phoenix the last few seasons when D'Antoni was coach there...Not with the sides, because PHOE was MUCH better the last few seasons than NY is now, talent-wise, but I look at the totals, because talent doesn't matter too much with totals when you compare it to the pace of the games..."Pace of the game trumps talent"...I have been doing this all year with Knicks totals, and for this game, we see that ATL has gone Over 5 of the last 6 vs. D'Antoni-run PHOE squads, so I like the Over once the line comes out...
Ind/Cle -- How about this stretch for the Pacers?...The 3 best teams in the league for 4 straight games, and they were at ORL before these 4...They lost at ORL on a back-ender (4 of 5, even), then beat the Lakers on a last-second tip-in, then go to Boston, now go to CLE tonight and then host Boston yet AGAIN in 2 days...Just SICK...Indy already played CLE on 11/7 at CLE, lost by 4, but covered...CLE had covered 7 straight h2h before that game and has won 8 straight h2h in this series...CLE has covered 6 straight overall...CLE Under 4 straight while Indy Over 4 straight and 6 of 7, so a clash there...
Phi/Det -- The Under jumps out right away here...3 of the 4 games in the regular season h2h last year went Under...DET Under 7 of 8 overall...Philly 3-1-3 to the Under their last 7 in regulation time...DET off a big win...Philly is facing the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last year for the first time this season and that "revenge" spot has worked out decently thus far this season...8.5 might be a lot for a DET team who may be in a let-down spot after a big win at SA...
Port/Bos -- Again, the Under jumps out here immediately...BOS has won 6 straight and covered 7 straight vs. PORT h2h, but it looks like it is just about time to throw some of these PORT trends out the window as they are emerging as a major force in the league this year...For the record, 5 of the last 6 Over h2h here...BOS Over their last 2 home games...PORT 6-0-1 to the Under their last 7 and 5-1 to the Under this season in all instances of their 3rd game in 4 days...BOS Over 2 straight for the 1st time this season and they only reached 3 consecutive Overs or more 3 times (I believe, last season, none of those streaks happening on the same homestand)...Is PORT capable of making a statement in thi spot??...
LAC/Memp -- Clips have covered 7 of last 8 h2h here...MEMP on a NC7, while Clips have covered 4 straight and 6 of 8 after a 1-9 ATS start (quasi-chart plays there)...Haven't seen many MEMP games lately, so I don't know why they are in this funk but could surmise it's a young team hitting an early wall...They'll snap out of it for a while at some point and then hit another wall later in the season, maybe even 2 more walls...Not sure why Coach Iavaroni (who was an Assistant under D'Antoni at PHOE) doesn't install the D'Antoni offense with the athletes he has there in MEMP...Grizz 3-0-1 to the Over last 4 while Clips 3-1 to the Over last 4...
GS/Hou -- 7 of the last 8 in this series have gone Over...Warriors with 3 days rest for the first time this season...GS Over 3 of 5 last year with 3 days rest or more (one missing a 4th Over by 1/2 a point) and 4 of 5 of those games were Over in the 1Q...GS way Over their last 2 and Over 9 of their last 11 and HOU is now Over 3 straight and 6 of 7...These 2 teams h2h Over 3 straight and 7 of 8...HOU paces have been quicker recently and I cannot help but think that if that continues tonight, the Over won't be any problem...I like GS Overs in the 1Q, but HOU, despite being Over the game total 6 of the last 7, have been Under in the 1Q in most of those games...No 1Q bet for sure...
Char/Milw -- CHAR Over 2 straight games for the first time this season (and I missed taking that last Over, which was stupid, because I saw it coming)...CHAR has some Overs coming here after a plethora of Unders to start the season...CHAR has also won 2 straight for the first time all season...CHAR didn't cover last time out to end their C5...
Tor/Utah -- Jay Triano takes over for Sam Mitchell and "the new coach's first game this season after a firing" is 2-0 ATS and both games went Over...Toronto on a NC6...This spot shapes up well for TOR, IMO...I like taking good teams after a 30+ point blowout loss...New coach to boot...New coach promises up-tempo...Not sure if that means jumping on the Over here because Utah is so banged up and suddenly slowing the pace with 3 straight Unders...But when a new coach takes over, it is next-to-impossible to put in a new defensive system in one practice, so the Over makes sense, especially when the team with the fired coach generally will come out with a lot of energy for that first game...
Ok, I have no balls at all...Am heating up and knew that once that #1 sides losing streak ended after 5, it would reverse itself, because I have seen this pattern over and and over again over the years of tracking my picks...This is something I highly recommend to any serious cappers who want to make money at this in the long run...I told myself to play my #1 sides at Level 2 every day AFTER the streak was snapped and I only played BOS at Level 1 and then didn't play SA at all...I am an idiot, a baffoon, a moron...No guts...
LAL/Was -- Lakers end a quick 3-game eastern swing before heading back to Staples after tonight...Wiz have covered 2 straight for the first time this season...Lake-show should be able to name the score here, but these lines will reach a saturation point I would suspect, some time soon as they won't be able to keep covering this big chalk forever...Lakers Over 6 straight while Wiz 3-0-1 to the Under last 4...Wiz won't be able to score with them, but maybe they'll try and we get another Over...
OKC/Orl -- ORL won 6 straight h2h in this series, covering 4 straight & 5 of 6...OKC has covered 5 of 6 after a NC6 (chart-stuff there), and OKC Over 3 straight...
Min/NJ -- Nets have had 2 days to shake off that home blowout vs. the Wiz after a good road trip...Minny on a NC5 now, losing 3 straight...Minny has covered 8 of the last 9 h2h in this series, however...No opinions really, which means, I'll take the points as the default pick...
NY/Atl -- no line...Knicks seem to have more distractions than a newbie at the Bunny Ranch...Harrington awaiting word on a suspension or a fine for decking LeBron and since the King is the show-piece of the league right now, I assume the NBA office will "have LeBron's back" and give Al a one-game suspension here so others won't follow suit with future flagrant fouls against King James...With D'Antoni the new coach of the Knicks this year, all trends against the Knicks previous to this season are completely thrown out the window...Irrelevant...What is relevant is how teams have done against Phoenix the last few seasons when D'Antoni was coach there...Not with the sides, because PHOE was MUCH better the last few seasons than NY is now, talent-wise, but I look at the totals, because talent doesn't matter too much with totals when you compare it to the pace of the games..."Pace of the game trumps talent"...I have been doing this all year with Knicks totals, and for this game, we see that ATL has gone Over 5 of the last 6 vs. D'Antoni-run PHOE squads, so I like the Over once the line comes out...
Ind/Cle -- How about this stretch for the Pacers?...The 3 best teams in the league for 4 straight games, and they were at ORL before these 4...They lost at ORL on a back-ender (4 of 5, even), then beat the Lakers on a last-second tip-in, then go to Boston, now go to CLE tonight and then host Boston yet AGAIN in 2 days...Just SICK...Indy already played CLE on 11/7 at CLE, lost by 4, but covered...CLE had covered 7 straight h2h before that game and has won 8 straight h2h in this series...CLE has covered 6 straight overall...CLE Under 4 straight while Indy Over 4 straight and 6 of 7, so a clash there...
Phi/Det -- The Under jumps out right away here...3 of the 4 games in the regular season h2h last year went Under...DET Under 7 of 8 overall...Philly 3-1-3 to the Under their last 7 in regulation time...DET off a big win...Philly is facing the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last year for the first time this season and that "revenge" spot has worked out decently thus far this season...8.5 might be a lot for a DET team who may be in a let-down spot after a big win at SA...
Port/Bos -- Again, the Under jumps out here immediately...BOS has won 6 straight and covered 7 straight vs. PORT h2h, but it looks like it is just about time to throw some of these PORT trends out the window as they are emerging as a major force in the league this year...For the record, 5 of the last 6 Over h2h here...BOS Over their last 2 home games...PORT 6-0-1 to the Under their last 7 and 5-1 to the Under this season in all instances of their 3rd game in 4 days...BOS Over 2 straight for the 1st time this season and they only reached 3 consecutive Overs or more 3 times (I believe, last season, none of those streaks happening on the same homestand)...Is PORT capable of making a statement in thi spot??...
LAC/Memp -- Clips have covered 7 of last 8 h2h here...MEMP on a NC7, while Clips have covered 4 straight and 6 of 8 after a 1-9 ATS start (quasi-chart plays there)...Haven't seen many MEMP games lately, so I don't know why they are in this funk but could surmise it's a young team hitting an early wall...They'll snap out of it for a while at some point and then hit another wall later in the season, maybe even 2 more walls...Not sure why Coach Iavaroni (who was an Assistant under D'Antoni at PHOE) doesn't install the D'Antoni offense with the athletes he has there in MEMP...Grizz 3-0-1 to the Over last 4 while Clips 3-1 to the Over last 4...
GS/Hou -- 7 of the last 8 in this series have gone Over...Warriors with 3 days rest for the first time this season...GS Over 3 of 5 last year with 3 days rest or more (one missing a 4th Over by 1/2 a point) and 4 of 5 of those games were Over in the 1Q...GS way Over their last 2 and Over 9 of their last 11 and HOU is now Over 3 straight and 6 of 7...These 2 teams h2h Over 3 straight and 7 of 8...HOU paces have been quicker recently and I cannot help but think that if that continues tonight, the Over won't be any problem...I like GS Overs in the 1Q, but HOU, despite being Over the game total 6 of the last 7, have been Under in the 1Q in most of those games...No 1Q bet for sure...
Char/Milw -- CHAR Over 2 straight games for the first time this season (and I missed taking that last Over, which was stupid, because I saw it coming)...CHAR has some Overs coming here after a plethora of Unders to start the season...CHAR has also won 2 straight for the first time all season...CHAR didn't cover last time out to end their C5...
Tor/Utah -- Jay Triano takes over for Sam Mitchell and "the new coach's first game this season after a firing" is 2-0 ATS and both games went Over...Toronto on a NC6...This spot shapes up well for TOR, IMO...I like taking good teams after a 30+ point blowout loss...New coach to boot...New coach promises up-tempo...Not sure if that means jumping on the Over here because Utah is so banged up and suddenly slowing the pace with 3 straight Unders...But when a new coach takes over, it is next-to-impossible to put in a new defensive system in one practice, so the Over makes sense, especially when the team with the fired coach generally will come out with a lot of energy for that first game...
