Navy vs Penn State 9/15/2012

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Penn State is a solid favorite with a 70% chance to beat Navy. Derek Day is projected for 72 rushing yards and a 53% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 30% of simulations where Navy wins, Trey Miller averages 0.95 TD passes vs 0.47 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.49 TDs to 0.65 interceptions. John Howell averages 105 rushing yards and 1.18 rushing TDs when Navy wins and 90 yards and 0.66 TDs in losses. Penn State has a 33% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 81% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is PAST -8

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