All these will be parlays-- but hooked manually for two reasons:
1. so that the best price can be utilized for each segment/leg... possible places to scout: Intertops/Canbet/5Dimes/Pinny/Betfair/Mansion/Matchbook.
2. Less money needs to be invested when protecting/reversing/locking in a profit...In Game and/or 2nd Half betting will be utilized for each leg.
Main bet: POR-GER o2½ +120
Looking for the opposite of the Final Game-- a free-flowing, unpressured, offensive-minded, fun game on both sides with plenty of scoring(enough by the winning team alone to throw the Over, should it somehow dominate its foe to the point of holding it scoreless)- look to both teams' first-round games for the picture. One clue is how most books are not offering U/O of more than 2½ goals-- they do not wish to get slaughtered. Also believe one team will gain the upper hand over the other, so between that & the high scoring, the tie can be glibly dismissed(which also- very tellingly is paying way too much)...leading to:
Secondary bet(& partial hedge to main bet parlays): POR +390
Not choosing a side here, just grabbing the value. Which team wins is hard to predict: players with none/little field time and/or non-regulars realistically on their last WC will likely be played...name players may be nursing hangovers and/or protecting upcoming pro play if having any physical issue from a hangnail on up.
In this WC so far, just a blind bet on the + side throws a profit; and at these odds, all you have to do is collect anything over 20% of the time to be in the black.
Final Game Hooks:
Main one: FRA-ITA o1½ Even Money & its partial Hedges: FRA-ITA TIE +185 & FRA +½ -170
Yes, the game obviously leans to low-scoring(though that is never a guarantee with so many dubious calls & balls hitting posts--doesn't take much, even if both teams defensive-minded)...but the books are shading so low that only a desperado would lay minus odds "while with" such a low line(either demand plus or a higher line-- for only one negative instead of both)...can get a much better return by betting the tie and/or one or two correct score props.
SO...if they're shading so low, we will take the plus & hope for one or two dubious falls/penalties and/or balls hitting posts to be called/bounce in our favor, in addition to a legitimate goal or two. AND: the other two hooks serve as hedges/dutches WITH the additional bonus possibility of ALL collecting. NOTE: just like in the earlier game, we are not picking a side with FRA, only taking the higher payoff.
TICKETS:
3 parlays of 2 each DUTCHED!!! Since this is IT, for the WC- we will either double or triple our usual $100 unit AND base it on the parlay with the highest return(so the other ones will have more money riding on them).
For example's sake let's use a nice round number as the base unit and only double it, to more easily work with even numbers. So, say our base amount will be $200:
Parlay 1(highest-paying one): POR +390 with FRA +½ -170 has odds of a little more than 6-3/4 to 1 NET(7.7824-1 total) BET:$200
Parlay 2(partial cover/hedge to BOTH legs of other parlays): POR-GER o2½ +120 with FRA-ITA TIE +185 has odds of a little more than 5-1/4 NET(6.27-1 total) BET(add 1/4 to first parlay amount or exactly 1.2412 times): $250(exactly 249)
Parlay 3(main/base): POR-GER o2½ +120 with FRA-ITA o1½ EVEN has odds a little under 7/2 NET(4.4 total) BET(add 77% to first parlay amount or exactly 1.7688 times...
OR add 43% to second parlay amount or exactly 1.425 times...
this way you can bet ONLY any two parlays INSTEAD of all three, THOUGH we do NOT recommend this: each parlay partially protects/hedges both legs of both other parlays AND blankets every possible score in the Final, except for ITA Regulation Win 1-0): $357
Total Invested: $800(plus/minus coupla dollars depending on odds you find.
Return(all three parlays can hit, even though they partially hedge each other):
A. IF ONLY main one hits: $1571(@95% NET, or equivalent of @ -105 bet)...but expect the return to be if at least 1½-2 parlays hit, as we will reverse/protect each leg of each parlay with In Game/1st-2nd Half bets. We will have the option to reverse & criss-cross...even hook to ITA +½ to BOTH be able to hit the hedge AND original; AND plug the only hole in Final(ITA Win exactly 1-0), though we may balk at throwing more money at undervalued ITA...& as well just cannot fathom a 1-0 Final.
B. $3540(like hitting a 7/2 horse or say, a football ML parlay of two-dogs or three-faves with the whole $800 total OR $5105+(hitting a 4-teamer with the whole investment amount).
So we've given you the proportionate amounts to guarantee a return BOTH equal AND also kept very close to the strong bet ALONE: the OVER in today's game...WHILE having a strong chance at a bonanza payoff!
Depending on your comfort zone amount, you could multiply each amount by the percentages we gave you, OR base it on total amount you wish to spend--- you would divide your desired total by our 800, then multiply each of the three parlay amounts by that answer. IE: you only want to spend a total of $50: 50 / 800 = .0625; so multiply each of the three amounts of 200/250/357 X .0625 each. Or IE: 2.5K / 800 = 3.125 times each.
But check the payoff of your parlays if your odds differ significantly, so as to diminish the least possible the main return of today's over--we're only hooking it in parlays for a chance at a bonanza, but we do not want to receive too little of a return when it comes in.
We will post live how/where we protect each leg.
:money8:
1. so that the best price can be utilized for each segment/leg... possible places to scout: Intertops/Canbet/5Dimes/Pinny/Betfair/Mansion/Matchbook.
2. Less money needs to be invested when protecting/reversing/locking in a profit...In Game and/or 2nd Half betting will be utilized for each leg.
Main bet: POR-GER o2½ +120
Looking for the opposite of the Final Game-- a free-flowing, unpressured, offensive-minded, fun game on both sides with plenty of scoring(enough by the winning team alone to throw the Over, should it somehow dominate its foe to the point of holding it scoreless)- look to both teams' first-round games for the picture. One clue is how most books are not offering U/O of more than 2½ goals-- they do not wish to get slaughtered. Also believe one team will gain the upper hand over the other, so between that & the high scoring, the tie can be glibly dismissed(which also- very tellingly is paying way too much)...leading to:
Secondary bet(& partial hedge to main bet parlays): POR +390
Not choosing a side here, just grabbing the value. Which team wins is hard to predict: players with none/little field time and/or non-regulars realistically on their last WC will likely be played...name players may be nursing hangovers and/or protecting upcoming pro play if having any physical issue from a hangnail on up.
In this WC so far, just a blind bet on the + side throws a profit; and at these odds, all you have to do is collect anything over 20% of the time to be in the black.
Final Game Hooks:
Main one: FRA-ITA o1½ Even Money & its partial Hedges: FRA-ITA TIE +185 & FRA +½ -170
Yes, the game obviously leans to low-scoring(though that is never a guarantee with so many dubious calls & balls hitting posts--doesn't take much, even if both teams defensive-minded)...but the books are shading so low that only a desperado would lay minus odds "while with" such a low line(either demand plus or a higher line-- for only one negative instead of both)...can get a much better return by betting the tie and/or one or two correct score props.
SO...if they're shading so low, we will take the plus & hope for one or two dubious falls/penalties and/or balls hitting posts to be called/bounce in our favor, in addition to a legitimate goal or two. AND: the other two hooks serve as hedges/dutches WITH the additional bonus possibility of ALL collecting. NOTE: just like in the earlier game, we are not picking a side with FRA, only taking the higher payoff.
TICKETS:
3 parlays of 2 each DUTCHED!!! Since this is IT, for the WC- we will either double or triple our usual $100 unit AND base it on the parlay with the highest return(so the other ones will have more money riding on them).
For example's sake let's use a nice round number as the base unit and only double it, to more easily work with even numbers. So, say our base amount will be $200:
Parlay 1(highest-paying one): POR +390 with FRA +½ -170 has odds of a little more than 6-3/4 to 1 NET(7.7824-1 total) BET:$200
Parlay 2(partial cover/hedge to BOTH legs of other parlays): POR-GER o2½ +120 with FRA-ITA TIE +185 has odds of a little more than 5-1/4 NET(6.27-1 total) BET(add 1/4 to first parlay amount or exactly 1.2412 times): $250(exactly 249)
Parlay 3(main/base): POR-GER o2½ +120 with FRA-ITA o1½ EVEN has odds a little under 7/2 NET(4.4 total) BET(add 77% to first parlay amount or exactly 1.7688 times...
OR add 43% to second parlay amount or exactly 1.425 times...
this way you can bet ONLY any two parlays INSTEAD of all three, THOUGH we do NOT recommend this: each parlay partially protects/hedges both legs of both other parlays AND blankets every possible score in the Final, except for ITA Regulation Win 1-0): $357
Total Invested: $800(plus/minus coupla dollars depending on odds you find.
Return(all three parlays can hit, even though they partially hedge each other):
A. IF ONLY main one hits: $1571(@95% NET, or equivalent of @ -105 bet)...but expect the return to be if at least 1½-2 parlays hit, as we will reverse/protect each leg of each parlay with In Game/1st-2nd Half bets. We will have the option to reverse & criss-cross...even hook to ITA +½ to BOTH be able to hit the hedge AND original; AND plug the only hole in Final(ITA Win exactly 1-0), though we may balk at throwing more money at undervalued ITA...& as well just cannot fathom a 1-0 Final.
B. $3540(like hitting a 7/2 horse or say, a football ML parlay of two-dogs or three-faves with the whole $800 total OR $5105+(hitting a 4-teamer with the whole investment amount).
So we've given you the proportionate amounts to guarantee a return BOTH equal AND also kept very close to the strong bet ALONE: the OVER in today's game...WHILE having a strong chance at a bonanza payoff!
Depending on your comfort zone amount, you could multiply each amount by the percentages we gave you, OR base it on total amount you wish to spend--- you would divide your desired total by our 800, then multiply each of the three parlay amounts by that answer. IE: you only want to spend a total of $50: 50 / 800 = .0625; so multiply each of the three amounts of 200/250/357 X .0625 each. Or IE: 2.5K / 800 = 3.125 times each.
But check the payoff of your parlays if your odds differ significantly, so as to diminish the least possible the main return of today's over--we're only hooking it in parlays for a chance at a bonanza, but we do not want to receive too little of a return when it comes in.
We will post live how/where we protect each leg.
:money8:
