I've had excellent luck since joining this message board. The picks that I've posted for the college Bowl games went 5-1. I was actually 7-2, but never posted my Ohio State, Wisconson and Pitt picks. I won on Oregon State, Tennessee, Michigan, Virginia Tech and USC. My only loss was Cal. So anyway, I thought I'd share my NFL predictions, in case my string of luck continues.
Pick 1: St. Louis +4 over Seattle
Since this game is on turf, I have to go with the Rams. When was the last time Seattle won ATS on turf? It was 4 weeks ago at Minn. In their last 10 games, they're 2-8 ATS, and 0-6 ATS at home. Their defense has given up 26 points to a Vick-less Atlanta, 21 points at home to Arizona, 37 at the Jets (to a rag-arm quarterback) and 43 points at home to Dallas. St. Louis will pound Jackson, and then go over the top with play-action. The only caution here is Ram turnovers. I'm betting that they finally take care of the ball.
St. Louis 34, Seattle 24
Pick 2: San Diego -6.5 over NYJ
Did you know that San Diego is 14-1-1 ATS this year? Their only loss? You guessed it. Anyway, San Diego has a great run defense. And with Pennington's shoulder problems, they're going to need a consistent running game for their receivers to get separation so that Pennington can lob the ball in there. I can't see this happening. SD has given up some passing yards this year, but Pennington's injured arm is the weakest they've seen. Plus, Martin is getting old and may get worn out early. If SD can just hold the Jets to an average rushing game, the game is theirs. The caution here is that the Jets defense completely shuts down SD's entire offense. But with Abraham not being 100%, it shouldn't happen. Brees, please, don't choke 'till next week.
San Diego 32, Jets 13
Pick 3: Denver +10 over Indy
Shanahan's a smart guy. He won't allow a repeat performance of last year. He's going to pound Droughns all day long. He'll keep Indy's offense off the field. The faster Indy scores early, the longer their defense will be on the field. This is Indy's Achilles heel. They score too fast. Their defense gets tired and allows big numbers. Their defense allows 95 more yards per game than Denver's. Meanwhile, their offense only outgains Denver's by 10 yards. Those aren't exact numbers, but close. Denver, in my opinion, is the most underrated team in the playoffs. When they want to play, they can play with anybody in the league. One more thing: Name the teams that Indy has beaten by more than 10 points this year: Green Bay (3rd game of the year), Oakland, Houston, Chicago, Detroit and Tennessee twice. None of these defenses can hold a candle to Denver's. Caution: Plummer, 'nuff said?
Indianapolis 28, Denver 27
Pick 4: Green Bay -6 over Minnesota
This is the toughest one for me. Minnesota's been favored in their last 7 games. They've covered exactly once (to Jacksonville). They backed into the playoffs by losing 4 of 5 outright (and only managed to beat Detroit by a point). Green Bay's playing much better than Minnesota . Over the past month or so, Minnesota just might be the worst team in the league (well OK, there's San Fran but..). Culpepper to Moss is always dangerous, but not as effective on grass. The problem is that with these two divisional rivals, all of the stats and analysis go out the window. Anything can happen. And unfortunately for Green Bay, the weather will be relatively warm. But I think Favre hears the fat lady singing, and with his pride, he wants to go out in style. I just hope that he doesn't try to set himself up for last minute heroics. Wait 'till next week for those shenanigans Brett.
Green Bay 31, Minnesota 21
Pick 1: St. Louis +4 over Seattle
Since this game is on turf, I have to go with the Rams. When was the last time Seattle won ATS on turf? It was 4 weeks ago at Minn. In their last 10 games, they're 2-8 ATS, and 0-6 ATS at home. Their defense has given up 26 points to a Vick-less Atlanta, 21 points at home to Arizona, 37 at the Jets (to a rag-arm quarterback) and 43 points at home to Dallas. St. Louis will pound Jackson, and then go over the top with play-action. The only caution here is Ram turnovers. I'm betting that they finally take care of the ball.
St. Louis 34, Seattle 24
Pick 2: San Diego -6.5 over NYJ
Did you know that San Diego is 14-1-1 ATS this year? Their only loss? You guessed it. Anyway, San Diego has a great run defense. And with Pennington's shoulder problems, they're going to need a consistent running game for their receivers to get separation so that Pennington can lob the ball in there. I can't see this happening. SD has given up some passing yards this year, but Pennington's injured arm is the weakest they've seen. Plus, Martin is getting old and may get worn out early. If SD can just hold the Jets to an average rushing game, the game is theirs. The caution here is that the Jets defense completely shuts down SD's entire offense. But with Abraham not being 100%, it shouldn't happen. Brees, please, don't choke 'till next week.
San Diego 32, Jets 13
Pick 3: Denver +10 over Indy
Shanahan's a smart guy. He won't allow a repeat performance of last year. He's going to pound Droughns all day long. He'll keep Indy's offense off the field. The faster Indy scores early, the longer their defense will be on the field. This is Indy's Achilles heel. They score too fast. Their defense gets tired and allows big numbers. Their defense allows 95 more yards per game than Denver's. Meanwhile, their offense only outgains Denver's by 10 yards. Those aren't exact numbers, but close. Denver, in my opinion, is the most underrated team in the playoffs. When they want to play, they can play with anybody in the league. One more thing: Name the teams that Indy has beaten by more than 10 points this year: Green Bay (3rd game of the year), Oakland, Houston, Chicago, Detroit and Tennessee twice. None of these defenses can hold a candle to Denver's. Caution: Plummer, 'nuff said?
Indianapolis 28, Denver 27
Pick 4: Green Bay -6 over Minnesota
This is the toughest one for me. Minnesota's been favored in their last 7 games. They've covered exactly once (to Jacksonville). They backed into the playoffs by losing 4 of 5 outright (and only managed to beat Detroit by a point). Green Bay's playing much better than Minnesota . Over the past month or so, Minnesota just might be the worst team in the league (well OK, there's San Fran but..). Culpepper to Moss is always dangerous, but not as effective on grass. The problem is that with these two divisional rivals, all of the stats and analysis go out the window. Anything can happen. And unfortunately for Green Bay, the weather will be relatively warm. But I think Favre hears the fat lady singing, and with his pride, he wants to go out in style. I just hope that he doesn't try to set himself up for last minute heroics. Wait 'till next week for those shenanigans Brett.
Green Bay 31, Minnesota 21
