My MIT Friends Created A Program to Help With Picks

kroyrunner89 · Jun 25, 2009

The Computer Group said:
Are you saying that someone that bets $500 a game, his service is worth it?

well here's how i see it. say i straight bet everything last season that he woulda recommended. he was 40 games over .500, so if i put down $20 a game i'm up $800. then, for 21 weeks i'm paying $15 a week, that's $315 for paying for picks. Still, a profit of $485 in a season. So, I'd say if you bet $20 a game it'd be worth it. So do whatever you're comfortable with, I'm not associated with this guy or anything so doesn't matter to me. just thought i'd fill people in with what i know

kroyrunner89 · Jun 25, 2009

C-Gold said:
I'm not calling him a fraud by any means, I'd just like to know more about his system.

yeah i know you weren't criticizing, just figured i'd try to keep anyone else from jumping all over it. anything i saw from him never got too in depth about how his system works, he's a mysterious fellow

aiverson · Jun 29, 2009

C-Gold said:
AI

Do you post your plays here? Care to lift up the blackbox a little bit and talk about your system?

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urple; mso-themecolor:followedhyperlink; text-decoration:underline; text-underline:single;} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} .MsoPapDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; margin-bottom:10.0pt; line-height:115%;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style> C-Gold – Obviously I don’t want to say too much about the system. I get enough for sharing the plays, let alone the details of the system. People think I should just hoard it to myself, not tell another soul, move to Vegas and set up shop and make a killing. To each his own. I have other priorities in life and with this sport, and would rather see regular guys profiting on the plays and steering clear of high-priced and under-performing touts. I’d name names, but you know who I am talking about. I tried to share some of the plays for free on FOX sports radio, but due to their exclusive contract w/ Lang, they wouldn’t allow me the opportunity, but they did so in a sneaky/shady way that I won’t spend time elaborating on here.

Anyhow, I posted my plays up through Week 9 at the RX last season on a weekly basis. In season’s past, I’d just chime in w/ a play or two on random occasions where I wanted to lend some keen insight or advice. I also posted a ton of research and analysis that I did. My posts never garnered a huge following at the time, because I didn’t bump them a million times or provide outlandish/eye grabbing subjects or comments. Just hardcore analysis and plays, and then I was off to other things.

A lot of my early interest in this forum was to correct misinformation and provide some truth and analysis. Not that people were intentionally wrong, but some people just didn’t do the research and posted their feelings. I’d run the numbers and share the results, to either support or reject their contentions/beliefs. I love the IQ of the avg poster here compared to other forums, and love participating in discussion, and teaching as well as learning. We’re never too good or too old to contemplate an interesting betting philosophy or trend or statistic and then provide feedback, pro or con. Helps keep the brain thinking clearly and develops our abilities even more.

If you search the NFL Forum for threads started by me ( http://forum.therx.com/search.php?f=108 ) you’ll see my plays from Weeks 1-9. Such as:

Week 9: http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=629596
Week 8: http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=627280

The majority of my plays I shared were generated from my computer. Not all, but most. But what I do is spend a ton of time researching/analyzing and capping to make sure I selected the top plays (in my opinion).

Getting back to the computer program: I can handicap without it. I won the wagerline playoff competition in 2005 going 16-2 (89%) ATS and didn’t use it then. But I was in the process of rolling it out at that point, and I worked on perfecting it the prior few seasons. One thing I can tell you is this: many people try to create a computer program and “perfect” it based on backtesting. Running it and seeing how it did based on the last 2 years of data. That is fine and well. But I’ve talked to several of these guys and when they try to run it going “forward”, it is merely average. They try to tweak it and adjust as time goes on to have it produce better “historical” results, but its future predictions don’t live up. Mine has been an anomaly. I have never tweaked it or messed with it since I finalized it. I simplified some of its output and tried to cut down on the number of “top plays” it would recommend. But that is it. And its prediction ability has been well above what your typical program can produce. I really can’t say what makes mine stand out. It just has so far.

aiverson · Jun 29, 2009

kroyrunner89 said:
i'm familiar with him, he runs his own website and charges maybe $10 or $15 a week for picks. i tend not to bet too big so it wasn't worth it for me, but when his stuff was free he did a pretty good job with it all. i know touts are generally hated on sportbetting forums, but show him some respect cuz he's legit and he's fair

kroyrunner - thank you for the respect.

aiverson · Jun 29, 2009

The Computer Group said:
Are you saying that someone that bets $500 a game, his service is worth it?

kroy and The Computer Group: This is an interesting topic and I'd like to digress it from talking directly about me to talking about paying for plays in general, as I do have very strong feelings on this topic which got me started doing what I do in general...

As a guy who has seen some of what goes on in the business, it disgusts me when I see high priced touts focus 100% of their time on marketing and promoting and zero on "true handicapping". They pick teams at random or tail someone else, charge an arm and a leg, and their win percentages don't come close to justifying their purchase price. Its for that reason (one of a couple actually) that I shared what I could to help people out for the last few years. And why I believe if a service really is worth anything, they could afford to low ball the market, just charge a nominal weekly fee, and help the "regular guy" win. Clearly no one else in the business feels that way, but I do. It ticked me off to hear the "handicapper of the week" on the national radio show get all the glory and all the publicity and struggle to break even, and get a huge following of subscribers just because he is famous.

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In order to break even, “net zero”, you have to hit 52.4%. That assumes standard -110 juice. If you can do better than that, you’ll make money. Obviously we’re talking a full season, not just a hot streak, and we’re talking using similar sized bets.

So let’s say you, the reader, are good enough to hit 58% for the season. Well, then you are hitting at 5.6% (58-52.4) above your break even, and making a decent profit.

When you pay for any service, you have to hit at a percentage over 52.4% to absorb the money you pay out to the service. What win percentage must your service achieve? It all depends on how much you pay for the service and how much you bet per week.

I ran the numbers, and assume you pay a service $15/week. Remember, $15 - this is key, because if it is more, the numbers change completely. If you bet just $50 total per week (maybe two, $25 plays), you would have to use a service that won 58.8% of its plays to “break even”.

If you bet $100/week, you would have to use a service that won 55.8% of its plays.

If you bet $250/week, you would have to use a service that won 53.8% of its plays.

The more you bet per week, the more you can afford to spend on plays, but the same is true, they have to win enough to justify their price. Not advocating one side or another, but here are the three main problems I have with most services.

1. They cost much more than $15/week. Most don't even try to be reasonable. Some are $20 to $25 per PLAY, others are $75/week. This means that, say you are a $150/wk bettor (making three, $50 bets/wk). If you pay $75 for the service, those plays need to win at 62.3% just for you to break even! Even more if you want to actually make money, which is your whole goal. If you can hit 58% on your own without paying for a service, it would no sense for you to pay for that service, because they would need to hit 67.9% (62.3+5.6) for you to make as much as you would just doing it on your own. And the number of services that actually would hit 67 or 68 percent are virtually 1% of all those out there.

2. They don’t win enough. You have to take what you want your “take home” to be, in terms of a percentage, and add it to the “break even” to see if a service can get you there. Using the numbers above, say you are a $100 bettor. Lets say you, on your own, can hit 55%. You’re making an avg of 2.6% profit (55-52.4) on the season. As a $100 bettor, if you buy a service that costs $15/week, you now have to hit 55.8% to break even. In order to ensure the same profit, that service has to hit 58.4% (55.8+2.6). So you have to look around and find a service than can hit, say 59% and you’ll be doing better with that service than without it. Even as a smaller $100/wk bettor and even with paying $15/wk for a service.

But the number of services than charge $15/week and can hit 59% or better is quite small. If they charged more than $15/week, then they would have to have an even better win percentage. It’s all a numbers/math thing.

3. They hide their true record in "units" or "stars". You know what I mean here. Lose your big 25 unit play, for three weeks in a row, come back with a 100 unit play that wins in the 4th week, market yourself as being "up 25 units on the season" even though you are 1-3 (25%). It's all about chasing and the subscribers cannot afford to chase with their "real money" like these touts chase with their "units". I couldn't possibly recommend any service who didn't say what their real W-L record is and admit when they had a 1-3 week.

So, are there situations where paying for a service is advantageous? Yes, if you have seen their numbers (and if you trust them) and they give you a better win percentage than you are able to achieve on your own, it is a smart move for you. But the problem is, most big name services charge too much, lose too often, and spend more time marketing and less time handicapping.

My whole goal w/ sharing my plays for free on message boards for years has been to help people make money and provide an alternative to paying some washed up tout who will lose your money. That’s what is great about forums like this one, it provides an alternative to guys who like betting on sports but don’t want to pay some phony money for plays. But like I said earlier, not all services are washed up or phony. Some can make you money. But each person must analyze their situation and their win percentage first, and if they think a service has the ability to help them make money: be smart, be selective, and choose one that does not cost much and hits enough to justify their price. And for each bettor, for each bankroll size, it will be different. And the better you are, the less it makes sense to pay. If you can hit 65% without spending your own time researching or breaking things down much, then it makes ZERO sense to pay for a service.

But it is a misnomer that, because you bet only $50 per week, you can’t afford a service. It can’t be an expensive one, and it has to hit at a high enough percentage, but all my numbers show that if a service can win enough and isn’t very expensive, virtually any level of player can make money using that service.

TheComputerGroup · Jun 29, 2009

Good stuff Aiverson, it seems you put alot of time & effort in everything you do, good luck this season!

55 % at worst · Jun 29, 2009

Check out my blog for real sharps plays

CapNCash · Jun 29, 2009

wish i could book all these system plays

Huego · Jun 29, 2009

CapNCash said:
wish i could book all these system plays

JCutler · Sep 16, 2009

I just trust these computer systems more than others. Computers don't have favorite teams they don't overthink and second guess themselves like people. I play two people who have computer systems Mister MJ and Pointspreadpros.com and both do pretty well in both Football and Basketball. I'm not sure what type of statistics they use in there systems but both are money. It just seem like in this day and age as advanced as computers have gotten that the should be able to consistenly beat Vegas.

Joedogs · Sep 17, 2009

Very interesting thread.In the book smart money the author actually becomes a runner for a group that use there computer based numbers to beat the Vegas spread.The group was very successful,so much that limits were put on there action.....If what I found out is true the leader of the computer group was actually,big time sharp Billy Walters

JimmyDetroit · Sep 17, 2009

yea any picks for nfl this week? This is interesting

My MIT Friends Created A Program to Help With Picks

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55 % at worst

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