My first attempt at capping, need help!

[Phatferd]

First of all, thanks for taking the time to read this. I love this site, it's full of interested and helpful people. I've been to a number of sites and this one seems to get the most conversation going and the avatars are nice!

I just did my first excel spreadsheet to try and cap games. I know it needs a lot of work and was wondering if anyone on here would mind taking a look at it and giving me their feedback on what I am overlooking, what I'm wasting my time on, etc...I take constructive criticism so don't be shy.

Right off the bat I think I am counting things twice in my formulas. The PPG is accounted for with the TO margin and Rebounding margin. I know I have a lot to work out and figure out because accoding to the table below (UCONN vs. Villanova) I have Villanova by 16, which is just way too much. I figured this because they have an initial 8pt advantage based on my table, plus 9 extra possesions (REB and TO) and if they hit 42% thats 8 more points for a total of 16. This is where I realize I am double counting things. I'm not even factoring in SOS or home court.

Any advice for a newbie?

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 747pt;" width="995" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 165pt;" width="220"> <col style="width: 74pt;" width="98"> <col style="width: 74pt;" width="99"> <col style="width: 83pt;" width="111"> <col style="width: 68pt;" width="90"> <col style="width: 71pt;" width="95"> <col style="width: 75pt;" width="100"> <col style="width: 72pt;" width="96"> <col style="width: 65pt;" width="86"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 165pt;" width="220" height="20">
</td> <td style="width: 74pt;" width="98">PPG</td> <td style="width: 74pt;" width="99">PPG vs.</td> <td style="width: 83pt;" width="111">RBPG</td> <td style="width: 68pt;" width="90">RBPG vs.</td> <td style="width: 71pt;" width="95">TO</td> <td style="width: 75pt;" width="100">TO vs.</td> <td style="width: 72pt;" width="96">FG%</td> <td style="width: 65pt;" width="86">FG% vs.</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Away Team</td> <td align="right">71.2</td> <td align="right">66.6</td> <td align="right">42.9</td> <td align="right">41.5</td> <td align="right">14.7</td> <td align="right">12.8</td> <td align="right">0.455</td> <td align="right">0.383</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Home Team</td> <td align="right">85.4</td> <td align="right">72.5</td> <td align="right">44.6</td> <td align="right">38</td> <td align="right">14</td> <td align="right">15.7</td> <td align="right">0.469</td> <td align="right">0.405</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">
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</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">PPG dif Away</td> <td align="right">4.6</td> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">PPG dif Home</td> <td align="right">12.9</td> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">RBPG dif Away</td> <td align="right">1.4</td> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">RBPG dif Home</td> <td align="right">6.6</td> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">TO dif Away</td> <td align="right">1.9</td> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">TO dif Home</td> <td align="right">-1.7</td> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">FG% averaged Away</td> <td align="right">0.43</td> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">FG% averaged Home</td> <td align="right">0.426</td> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">(Their FG% * Opponent FG% vs.)</td> <td>
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[IrishTim]

Firstly - judging by your approach and mentality, it looks like you have a chance to be successful in this where 98% of people lose. Your attitude of trying to methodically let the numbers guide you, not your gut from watching the games, ESPN's clueless 'analysts' or some of the clowns that post here.

Out of curiosity, why did you pick the UConn/Nova game? The big time TV games often have sharper lines. You have a much better chance of finding value (which is what you're looking for, not "picking winners") in the CS Fullerton/Hawaii game than Duke/UNC. The odds makers put more time into the opening lines of these games because they know they'll be taking more action on them and more people bet them making the market more efficient (and the lines sharper).

It can be daunting to cap a whole college basketball card. A good place to start would be using power ratings. A lot of sharps create their owns, but there are plenty that are out there right now you can access for free. I wouldn't bet these blindly, but they can help you eliminate plays. Although not my favorite, the most popular is Jeff Sagarin - known for his work with the BCS. You can find his ratings here: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt0910.htm

He believes that his "PURE POINTS PREDICTOR" (blue font on the left side) is his best predictor of future games. Now you look at the power ratings for each team - he has Villanova at 88.78 and UConn at 82.52. So if they played on a neutral court, Villanova would be about a 6 point favorite.

Everyone has their different adjustments for power ratings. The best ones (in my opinion) multiply/divide a percentage but I believe Sagarin just adds 4 points to the home team to account for home court advantage. Thus, using his power ratings Villanova should be favored by 10.

Villanova opened as a 10.5 point favorite and the line closed at 9.5. This game would be a pass. Look for games where there is a 3 point or so difference and then commit your time to further exploring those games.

If you have any questions about modeling, feel free to shoot me a private message.

 

[Phatferd]

Thanks, I'll definitely shoot you a PM. It's funny you mentioned Cal State Fullerton, it's my alma mater.

I just chose the Vill/UCON game to plug into my formula to test it out. There really was no meaning behind it.

 

[Phatferd]

Do you guys have any suggestion as to what variables I should be measuring in my analysis'. Also, any suggestions on how to weigh SOS and Home Court?

Are there any books out there that are worth the read on capping games? I'm not the world's biggest math whiz, but I feel I can learn anything if I spend enough time learning it. I would love to get into the practice of figuring out EV, and money management.

 

[IrishTim]

Phat, money management is easy. If you're making +EV plays, it's not hard to make money. If you're making -EV plays, there is nothing you can do to keep yourself from losing money. In the beginning, spread out a well-defined banrkoll (max you're willing to lose) over a few different books (Bookmaker, Greek, Matchbook, 5Dimes, BetPhoenix, etc. are great). Bet 1-2% of your bankroll on every game. When you get more advanced, read up on the Kelly Criterion but you're a few years away.

As far as measuring variables, well that's the hard part. You need to look at historical data and do the study for yourself on what factors correlate to wins and losses, etc. Then use this information to develop a model. I'll give you a few examples from baseball just because I have it handy:

EVENT RUN VALUE
Home run = 1.397
Triple = 1.070
Double = .776
Sac bunt = -.096
Pickoff = -.281
Out = -.299

It isn't easy and it does take time, but if it were quick and easy everyone would be doing it. My guess is that you aren't a computer programmer who can easily scrape their own lines and build a database so you're probably going to have to search around for one. PM me and we can talk about that further.

Sharpinvestments, I don't believe in "line bait". Any "bait" that the lines put out there would get eaten up by the sharps immediately.

 

[Phatferd]

First of all thanks to everyone who is giving me great information. Irish I will PM for help on the programming side and to pick your brain. I'm on my phone so I will shoot you a PM when I get to an actual computer.

Thanks again everyone and of anyone else has any input it's still appreciated.