Here is my article for The Sports Network this week. This article goes live tomorrow, posting it here to get some initial feedback.
Enjoy.
My "Bettor Half": All Sport 2nd Half Trend Analysis
By: VegasJack
Week Seven of the NFL Season is dawning.
Gamblers can become poignant upon realizing the season is half over. I, on the other hand, find elation in knowing a prosperous betting opportunity is still available for another two and a half months.
In the past few years back testing trends have become an essential part to many handicappers weekly regimen. Numerous websites now have public databases containing years upon years of opening and closing lines. The one thing these databases do not have is historical documentation of second half lines.
A good friend of mine Jason Thorpe, is a Bookmaker located in the Bahamas. He says:
“An average second half line will add an additional 25-35% to a games handle. This is more than double what first half lines (15%) and props (8-10%) will add.”
After realizing how popular these wagers had become, and the value they possess, I was swift to begin documentation of my own. I have compiled halftime sides and totals from each football and basketball game played in America over the past two years, both professional and college.
This September started the third year of football documentation. November will begin the third year of basketball documentation.
I have done extensive back testing throughout each league and sport. I have developed dozens of profitable situational trends for each. I have also discovered a situational trend that is universal amongst all sports and leagues. This trend has stood up to the test and has proven to be extremely profitable regardless of the sport.
The trend is quick and simple.
Regardless of league or sport, if a game is tied at halftime, play along with the oddsmakers adjustments.
To better understand the trend, let’s take a look at an example from week one of the NFL season.
Week One: New York Giants @ Washington Redskins.
Full Game Line: New York -1
Halftime Line: Washington -1
The score is tied at halftime.
Oddsmakers have Washington listed as a 1 point favorite for the second half.
Since the game is tied, Washington is technically now -1 for the full game.
This has effectively adjusted the oddsmakers opinion on the full game spread two entire points.
As usually the case, the public money goes against the trend. Washington ended up closing at PK to start the 2nd half.
Final score: Washington 28 – New York 14 (Washington 14 – New York 0 2nd Half)
Win and Cover.
This NFL Season has produced six occasions where this trend was live. All six were winning wagers. The success rate this season has been exceptional, but not leaps and bounds ahead of seasons past.
I believe this trend works consistently for a number of reasons:
- Halftime wagers put the oddsmaker against the player in a head to head match-up. This line is based completely on perception of the first half. However, Nine times out of ten, the oddsmaker sees things the player does not. Since this trend is based solely on the oddsmaker’s perception, it has a strong advantage off the start.
- The betting window for these wagers is open for a very short time. There is next to no market manipulation.
- Volume is limited because many do not have access to a computer to place the wager in time.
- Those who are able to place a wager are most likely looking to do one of two things. Double down on their wager, or hedge. There is next to no handicapping done by the player when betting these lines. It is almost strictly impulsive.
- Unlike a full game that has the potential to be wagered on by everyone and anyone, a second half line is often times looked over by bettors. A lot of the time players are content with the wager they placed on the full game and see no need to add on at halftime.
Most importantly, all of these factors help narrow down the audience the Bookmaker is catering to. The more the Bookmaker knows about his audience, the bigger advantage he has against the player. This is why it is beneficial to look at second half lines from multiple books and sources. Do not limit yourself to one bookmaker. Get a grasp on the sharp books and the square books then make a judgment.
You must note this is an exceptional start and by no means do the past results predict the future. I encourage you to take this into consideration next time you are betting on a halftime line.
Enjoy.
My "Bettor Half": All Sport 2nd Half Trend Analysis
By: VegasJack
Week Seven of the NFL Season is dawning.
Gamblers can become poignant upon realizing the season is half over. I, on the other hand, find elation in knowing a prosperous betting opportunity is still available for another two and a half months.
In the past few years back testing trends have become an essential part to many handicappers weekly regimen. Numerous websites now have public databases containing years upon years of opening and closing lines. The one thing these databases do not have is historical documentation of second half lines.
A good friend of mine Jason Thorpe, is a Bookmaker located in the Bahamas. He says:
“An average second half line will add an additional 25-35% to a games handle. This is more than double what first half lines (15%) and props (8-10%) will add.”
After realizing how popular these wagers had become, and the value they possess, I was swift to begin documentation of my own. I have compiled halftime sides and totals from each football and basketball game played in America over the past two years, both professional and college.
This September started the third year of football documentation. November will begin the third year of basketball documentation.
I have done extensive back testing throughout each league and sport. I have developed dozens of profitable situational trends for each. I have also discovered a situational trend that is universal amongst all sports and leagues. This trend has stood up to the test and has proven to be extremely profitable regardless of the sport.
The trend is quick and simple.
Regardless of league or sport, if a game is tied at halftime, play along with the oddsmakers adjustments.
To better understand the trend, let’s take a look at an example from week one of the NFL season.
Week One: New York Giants @ Washington Redskins.
Full Game Line: New York -1
Halftime Line: Washington -1
The score is tied at halftime.
Oddsmakers have Washington listed as a 1 point favorite for the second half.
Since the game is tied, Washington is technically now -1 for the full game.
This has effectively adjusted the oddsmakers opinion on the full game spread two entire points.
As usually the case, the public money goes against the trend. Washington ended up closing at PK to start the 2nd half.
Final score: Washington 28 – New York 14 (Washington 14 – New York 0 2nd Half)
Win and Cover.
This NFL Season has produced six occasions where this trend was live. All six were winning wagers. The success rate this season has been exceptional, but not leaps and bounds ahead of seasons past.
I believe this trend works consistently for a number of reasons:
- Halftime wagers put the oddsmaker against the player in a head to head match-up. This line is based completely on perception of the first half. However, Nine times out of ten, the oddsmaker sees things the player does not. Since this trend is based solely on the oddsmaker’s perception, it has a strong advantage off the start.
- The betting window for these wagers is open for a very short time. There is next to no market manipulation.
- Volume is limited because many do not have access to a computer to place the wager in time.
- Those who are able to place a wager are most likely looking to do one of two things. Double down on their wager, or hedge. There is next to no handicapping done by the player when betting these lines. It is almost strictly impulsive.
- Unlike a full game that has the potential to be wagered on by everyone and anyone, a second half line is often times looked over by bettors. A lot of the time players are content with the wager they placed on the full game and see no need to add on at halftime.
Most importantly, all of these factors help narrow down the audience the Bookmaker is catering to. The more the Bookmaker knows about his audience, the bigger advantage he has against the player. This is why it is beneficial to look at second half lines from multiple books and sources. Do not limit yourself to one bookmaker. Get a grasp on the sharp books and the square books then make a judgment.
You must note this is an exceptional start and by no means do the past results predict the future. I encourage you to take this into consideration next time you are betting on a halftime line.
