Hello all , this is my first post here but i have been posting regularly at both Letitridesports.com as well as Wagerbuffet.com so i feel good about posting my record thus far and all you have to do is go look to see for yourselfs. I like to put my thoughts to pen and paper so i will put my write ups here for all to see, GL and this will be the first of many i hope
All Games are unitized between 1-5 Units. I release Five Unit plays approximately 5-8% of my total plays all year. Or you could say one 5 Unit play for every 105th plays (last 5 Unit game was Saturday October 10th Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5, W 24-22).
Monday Night NFL: (8-4 + 14.18 Units)
Sunday Night NFL: (4-1 + 5.29 Units)
NFL Overall: (40-23 + 43.30 Units)
This game is tales of two teams with the same problem…both are just awful on the road. You make the road weary Chiefs have to travel the day of the game and not arriving in Miami until 2 pm two whole days before they are supposed to? Miami on the other hand has an otherwise normal schedule as far as travel wise, they can just call a cab or maybe a Boat laden with Vikings and strippers ….ok the point is they have ZERO travel issues. Even KC President Carl Peterson said that the Chiefs are on the wrong end of a “competitive disadvantage” and lobbied to get the game moved to KC (yhea right, Maybe if you only had half of the Giants market). For this alone I liked the ‘Fins out of the box but the more I dug the more I liked the Dolphins even that much more.
The Dolphins have fallen on some tough times these last few weeks. Two weeks ago in Buffalo the Dolphins overcame 18 penalties and 4 turnovers and were in position to take the lead inside the Bills redzone until a Ronnie Brown fumble with 1:37 left in the fourth quarter and also the Dolphins 5th turnover proved too much. Go back to last week where the Dolphins where playing the vaunted Tampa Bucs and they just got whipped up front getting out rushed by almost a 3-1 margin! They did out pass the bucs by over 80 yards and didn’t throw an interception but 3-1 on the ground is insurmountable in the NFL on the ground, its just that simple. Hold up thou… before you sell the ‘Fins defense short, the Miami offense converted just 3 first downs in 14 attempts (21% for all the math wizards), that is just flat out Texan like.
Compare the Road Dolphins on 3rd down (10-30 in three games or 33%) to the Home Dolphins (14-28 in just two games, or 50%). Why do you ask there are almost as many conversions as they are on the road with one less game? Well its real simple…because the Dolphins are MOVING the ball at home as opposed to a very soft road showing thus getting more and more third downs. In Miami this team is averaging 30 points per game, 370 yards per game total offense, as opposed to on the road where they average 288 yards and just 11 points…and most of that HAS to do with those failed 3rd down conversions. Throw in the fact that besides these obvious discrepancies that the Dolphins also have not given up a sack at home then this isn’t a trend it’s a fact; this team thrives at home as opposed to on the road with all those hassles that come with it.
Before you go looking at their schedule to find the Texans and the Saints…look a little higher, they have beaten two 1st place teams with a combined 9-3 record, the Broncos and Panthers are two of the most balanced teams this year in the league. Now you want to send in the Chiefs?? The Redskins totally had the upper hand with half the weapons the Dolphins possess. Rickey and Ronnie Brown, Marty Booker and Chris Chambers and the X Factor Randy McMichael who will score for the 5th straight week. I don’t see how this Kansas City team can contain when you look at this defense (all beit improved on paper). This is the same team that Was HANDLED on both sides of the ball last week @ Home by the Redskins, the Redskins threw for over 300 yards and its not like those were all from behind, let me stress this one last time….REDSKINS for 300+! The Redskins Santana Moss, the only legitimate threat in their passing game had almost 200 yards himself! How does that happen??? Is everyone on that beast of a tightend Royal?? Or was their attention diverted to the monster otherwise known as David Patten?? Brunell was 61% for 331 yards with no interceptions, which is just ridiculous. Throw in the performance of Priest Holmes 14-18 yards and its any wonder that they won the game much less covered as 6 point ‘Fav’s. They won because they had 4 sacks and 2 forced fumbles on Brunell….but remember, Miami don’t allow sacks at home.
Fletch's Keys to the game:
The due factor comes into play here…the ‘Fins coming off two straight road losses with Saben as their head coach will get this win, while the very average Chiefs coming off a home win on a short, make that ULTRA short week are due for a loss
Getting a lot of pressure and penetration up front like Denver did forcing the Chiefs to beat you in the pass, Eddie Kennison can be handled by the Dolphins pretty easily.
Keep up those 3rd down conversions and wear this suspect Chief Defense all night with playaction, continue to protect your pivot and keep the penalties down.
Get the running game going…Williams and Brown need together to come with over 80 on the ground by halftime IMO for this Dolphin home machine to get rolling but against the Chiefs, you can make up for it in the second half…cough … Philly : )
448 Miami Dolphins - 1.5 -107 (3.75 Units)
All Games are unitized between 1-5 Units. I release Five Unit plays approximately 5-8% of my total plays all year. Or you could say one 5 Unit play for every 105th plays (last 5 Unit game was Saturday October 10th Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5, W 24-22).
Monday Night NFL: (8-4 + 14.18 Units)
Sunday Night NFL: (4-1 + 5.29 Units)
NFL Overall: (40-23 + 43.30 Units)
This game is tales of two teams with the same problem…both are just awful on the road. You make the road weary Chiefs have to travel the day of the game and not arriving in Miami until 2 pm two whole days before they are supposed to? Miami on the other hand has an otherwise normal schedule as far as travel wise, they can just call a cab or maybe a Boat laden with Vikings and strippers ….ok the point is they have ZERO travel issues. Even KC President Carl Peterson said that the Chiefs are on the wrong end of a “competitive disadvantage” and lobbied to get the game moved to KC (yhea right, Maybe if you only had half of the Giants market). For this alone I liked the ‘Fins out of the box but the more I dug the more I liked the Dolphins even that much more.
The Dolphins have fallen on some tough times these last few weeks. Two weeks ago in Buffalo the Dolphins overcame 18 penalties and 4 turnovers and were in position to take the lead inside the Bills redzone until a Ronnie Brown fumble with 1:37 left in the fourth quarter and also the Dolphins 5th turnover proved too much. Go back to last week where the Dolphins where playing the vaunted Tampa Bucs and they just got whipped up front getting out rushed by almost a 3-1 margin! They did out pass the bucs by over 80 yards and didn’t throw an interception but 3-1 on the ground is insurmountable in the NFL on the ground, its just that simple. Hold up thou… before you sell the ‘Fins defense short, the Miami offense converted just 3 first downs in 14 attempts (21% for all the math wizards), that is just flat out Texan like.
Compare the Road Dolphins on 3rd down (10-30 in three games or 33%) to the Home Dolphins (14-28 in just two games, or 50%). Why do you ask there are almost as many conversions as they are on the road with one less game? Well its real simple…because the Dolphins are MOVING the ball at home as opposed to a very soft road showing thus getting more and more third downs. In Miami this team is averaging 30 points per game, 370 yards per game total offense, as opposed to on the road where they average 288 yards and just 11 points…and most of that HAS to do with those failed 3rd down conversions. Throw in the fact that besides these obvious discrepancies that the Dolphins also have not given up a sack at home then this isn’t a trend it’s a fact; this team thrives at home as opposed to on the road with all those hassles that come with it.
Before you go looking at their schedule to find the Texans and the Saints…look a little higher, they have beaten two 1st place teams with a combined 9-3 record, the Broncos and Panthers are two of the most balanced teams this year in the league. Now you want to send in the Chiefs?? The Redskins totally had the upper hand with half the weapons the Dolphins possess. Rickey and Ronnie Brown, Marty Booker and Chris Chambers and the X Factor Randy McMichael who will score for the 5th straight week. I don’t see how this Kansas City team can contain when you look at this defense (all beit improved on paper). This is the same team that Was HANDLED on both sides of the ball last week @ Home by the Redskins, the Redskins threw for over 300 yards and its not like those were all from behind, let me stress this one last time….REDSKINS for 300+! The Redskins Santana Moss, the only legitimate threat in their passing game had almost 200 yards himself! How does that happen??? Is everyone on that beast of a tightend Royal?? Or was their attention diverted to the monster otherwise known as David Patten?? Brunell was 61% for 331 yards with no interceptions, which is just ridiculous. Throw in the performance of Priest Holmes 14-18 yards and its any wonder that they won the game much less covered as 6 point ‘Fav’s. They won because they had 4 sacks and 2 forced fumbles on Brunell….but remember, Miami don’t allow sacks at home.
Fletch's Keys to the game:
The due factor comes into play here…the ‘Fins coming off two straight road losses with Saben as their head coach will get this win, while the very average Chiefs coming off a home win on a short, make that ULTRA short week are due for a loss
Getting a lot of pressure and penetration up front like Denver did forcing the Chiefs to beat you in the pass, Eddie Kennison can be handled by the Dolphins pretty easily.
Keep up those 3rd down conversions and wear this suspect Chief Defense all night with playaction, continue to protect your pivot and keep the penalties down.
Get the running game going…Williams and Brown need together to come with over 80 on the ground by halftime IMO for this Dolphin home machine to get rolling but against the Chiefs, you can make up for it in the second half…cough … Philly : )
448 Miami Dolphins - 1.5 -107 (3.75 Units)
