AC on the money, as usual. Took in about 3.5 mil on Friday, which puts it on track for 10-11 for the weekend.
As I called, FD2 and Recruit seem to be neck-and-neck for 16 mil or so this weekend, but that's about 6 mil higher than what I expected. New Line again proves that when it comes to sequels, they manage to defy the law of diminishing returns. Kudos to them.
I didn't play this weekend. What I'm noticing is that the WSEX lines get super-sharp by Friday, and it becomes too close a race to call, unless you can approximate into the hundreds of thousands what a movie will be doing. Recruit seems set to make just under or just over 16 mil, and at that point it's just a game of luck. And I don't count on luck.
I still think there's money to be made here, but I may have to reconsider my policy of not betting until almost post time.
As I called, FD2 and Recruit seem to be neck-and-neck for 16 mil or so this weekend, but that's about 6 mil higher than what I expected. New Line again proves that when it comes to sequels, they manage to defy the law of diminishing returns. Kudos to them.
I didn't play this weekend. What I'm noticing is that the WSEX lines get super-sharp by Friday, and it becomes too close a race to call, unless you can approximate into the hundreds of thousands what a movie will be doing. Recruit seems set to make just under or just over 16 mil, and at that point it's just a game of luck. And I don't count on luck.
I still think there's money to be made here, but I may have to reconsider my policy of not betting until almost post time.
lakerfan: you have mail.
recruit is a big surprise for disney as it may win the weekend outright if adults decide to go to the movies tonight. will be curious to see the cinemascore on this one because reviews were negative all around and mostly chided hwood for making predictable pictures. biker boyz could even creep up to 11.5-12 depending on tonight also. (gl, spinchter!)
i'm kicking myself for thinking that recruit would do poorly. i have to keep reminding myself that the american public will go to see a bad movie, especially on opening weekend if it is a recognizable genre pic and has a name star AND there is no competion in its sector (in this case adults 25-54 had no other movie to see) this situation reminds of THE SCORE, which also had incorrect tracking and ended up at number one for the weekend. boring genre pic but DeNiro and Norton pulled em in. will be interesting to see if RECRUIT will have legs.
wanted to add re: tracking. It can also be wildly off for teen movies, in both directions. last year, a certain studios tracking was expecting big numbers or NOT ANOTHER TEEN MOVIE. and we know what happened there.
AC
ps. there are definitely insiders betting the numbers. i don't know of any studio people who do, but I know of at least five agents who are hitting the numbers when they are off. not sure where they are betting though. I will not be surprised to see these types of bets taken off the board in the future.
pps. btw, I got totally f-ed when I bet on tracking once. i loaded up on what looked like a sure thing....lost...and since then, have decided to stay away.
recruit is a big surprise for disney as it may win the weekend outright if adults decide to go to the movies tonight. will be curious to see the cinemascore on this one because reviews were negative all around and mostly chided hwood for making predictable pictures. biker boyz could even creep up to 11.5-12 depending on tonight also. (gl, spinchter!)
i'm kicking myself for thinking that recruit would do poorly. i have to keep reminding myself that the american public will go to see a bad movie, especially on opening weekend if it is a recognizable genre pic and has a name star AND there is no competion in its sector (in this case adults 25-54 had no other movie to see) this situation reminds of THE SCORE, which also had incorrect tracking and ended up at number one for the weekend. boring genre pic but DeNiro and Norton pulled em in. will be interesting to see if RECRUIT will have legs.
wanted to add re: tracking. It can also be wildly off for teen movies, in both directions. last year, a certain studios tracking was expecting big numbers or NOT ANOTHER TEEN MOVIE. and we know what happened there.
AC
ps. there are definitely insiders betting the numbers. i don't know of any studio people who do, but I know of at least five agents who are hitting the numbers when they are off. not sure where they are betting though. I will not be surprised to see these types of bets taken off the board in the future.
pps. btw, I got totally f-ed when I bet on tracking once. i loaded up on what looked like a sure thing....lost...and since then, have decided to stay away.
pretty sure that the NL estimate is going to change, probably downwards also pretty sure that Disney has stretched their number to the max to get #1 because they would love to have it in their ads...will be curious to see if their position changes on Monday. also surprised that BB didn't get stronger considering that the core audience liked the picture.
AC
AC
