Monte Carlo

[Tchocky]

1st round upsets:

1. Andreev +119 d. Acasuso
2. Clement +128 d. Serra
3. Mirnyi +245 d. Baghdatis
4. Gicquel +140 d. Mayer
5. Vliegen +205 d. Mathieu

 

[JohnMolson]

can't believe the fvkin choker Mathieuuke1:

 

[Hope1]

gentlemen, these amount of upsets are not overly surprising. This is the first clay tounament for many players. Difficult, nearly impossible to gauge where their games are. Safer to play/bet with the players that have played coming in (Valencia, qualies, clay Challengers). Things 'should' become more 'predictable' as we get deeper into the clay season.

my 2 cents

:toast:

 

[Tchocky]

Upsets for today (4-17):

1. Lee +475 d. Youzhny
2. Becker +137 d. Johansson
3. Roitman +116 d. Melzer
4. Vliegen +200 d. Safin

Had a small play on Lee, Roitman & Vliegen...lost on Johansson. Seppi forces Federer to 2 tiebreaks...wow! I saw Seppi beat Gabashvili in the 1st round and he impressed me; didn't think he would give Roger such a tough time.

 

[Tchocky]

can't believe the fvkin choker Mathieuuke1:

Give some credit to Vliegen. I saw some of the match and Kristof looked very good. He pulled off another upset today.

 

[Leviathan]

I saw partly Kristof's match against Safin and he looked very good in that too. It looks like this surface is very good for him but probably getting the worst possible opponent when the next round comes. Rafael "I want my 66th straight win on clay" Nadal.

 

[Tchocky]

Predictions for Thursday:

1. Berdych +120 over Robredo
2. Federero 2-0 over Lee
3. Gasquet over Ljubicic
4. Nadal 2-0 over Vliegen
5. Soderling 2-0 over Mirnyi
6. Ferrer +219 over Djokovic
7. Andreev +100 over Ferrero
8. Garcia-Lopez +138 over Kohlschreiber

 

[rhinooooo]

Really like your picks Tchocky. There is good money to be made on dogs in tennis. You can often find great value. I find the Masters and GrandSlam tournaments a bit harder though. The smaller ATP tournaments are definite money.

Good luck with your picks tomorrow. I'm with you on Berdych. Considering Ferrer and GGL.

 

[Hope1]

Predictions for Thursday:

1. Berdych +120 over Robredo
2. Federero 2-0 over Lee
3. Gasquet over Ljubicic
4. Nadal 2-0 over Vliegen
5. Soderling 2-0 over Mirnyi
6. Ferrer +219 over Djokovic
7. Andreev +100 over Ferrero
8. Garcia-Lopez +138 over Kohlschreiber

are these you're actual plays? or just predictions?

Federer 2-0 is -1400
Nadal 2-0 is -1400

are you actually laying $1400 to win $100?

 

[Leviathan]

Nicely done with your predictions :toast:

6/7 and G-L and Kohl in the third set.

 

[Tchocky]

are these you're actual plays? or just predictions?

Federer 2-0 is -1400
Nadal 2-0 is -1400

are you actually laying $1400 to win $100?

I don't know where you got your lines. Both Nadal & Federer were about
-500 to win in straight sets at Pinny. I have never seen -1400 in sets betting.

 

[Tchocky]

Nicely done with your predictions :toast:

6/7 and G-L and Kohl in the third set.

Actually I was 7 of 8. I should have been 8 out 8 but Garcia Lopez decided he didn't want to advance to the quarters blowing match points in the 2nd & 3rd sets.

 

[Tchocky]

Quarterfinal Picks:

1. Federer -500 over Ferrer
1a. Federer 2-0
1b. Federer wins 1st set
2. Gasquet -143 over Ferrero
2a. Gasquet 2-1
2b. Gasquet wins 1st set
3. Berdych -158 over Soderling
3a. Berdych 2-1
3b. Berdych wins 1st set
4. Nadal over Kohlschreiber
4a. Nadal 2-0
4b. Nadal wins 1st set

 

[Tchocky]

Actually I was 7 of 8. I should have been 8 out 8 but Garcia Lopez decided he didn't want to advance to the quarters blowing match points in the 2nd & 3rd sets.

Correction. I forgot Andreev lost to Ferrero. 6 of 8.

 

[Hope1]

I don't know where you got your lines. Both Nadal & Federer were about
-500 to win in straight sets at Pinny. I have never seen -1400 in sets betting.

bet365 had those lines.

they also gifted us with Lee +6 games over Fed....

 

[rhinooooo]

I see some value in Soderling over Berdych tomorrow. Soderling at +140 at Betfair Exchange. Sportsbooks shouldn't be too out of line.

With the form that Fedex has been showing lately, I was contemplating a play on Ferrer but I feel his odds are still too low.

 

[Tchocky]

bet365 had those lines.

they also gifted us with Lee +6 games over Fed....

Yeah...I had Lee +6 as well.

 

[Tchocky]

I see some value in Soderling over Berdych tomorrow. Soderling at +140 at Betfair Exchange. Sportsbooks shouldn't be too out of line.

With the form that Fedex has been showing lately, I was contemplating a play on Ferrer but I feel his odds are still too low.

I agree with you. Soderling has value. He has won the last 2 meetings against Berdych. I just think Berdych is a better player. He impressed me with his win against Robredo after losing the 1st set 6-1.

 

[Hope1]

Quarterfinal Picks:

1. Federer -500 over Ferrer
1a. Federer 2-0
1b. Federer wins 1st set
2. Gasquet -143 over Ferrero
2a. Gasquet 2-1
2b. Gasquet wins 1st set
3. Berdych -158 over Soderling
3a. Berdych 2-1
3b. Berdych wins 1st set
4. Nadal over Kohlschreiber
4a. Nadal 2-0
4b. Nadal wins 1st set

you mentioned you used pinnacle for your prop plays today and got some really good lines for your 2-0 lines when compared to what bet365 had.

pinny does not have these prop lines up at this hour, yet you have posted these plays--where are you playing them? what lines did you get?


Nadal over Kohl is -6300 at pinny.... are you laying $6300 to win $100??....or is this just a prediction?....



gl tomm, thks for sharing your plays .....

 

[Hope1]

monies flowing on Juan Carlos, that should be a very good match. I had Juan Carlos good for dead--I was wrong, he still has game even tho that forehand is a mere shadow of what it once was. Great oppurtunity for Gasquet to FINALLY start to fulfill his promise-- a win tomm and into the semi's---he CAN cause major havoc for Fed as he can hurt one from both sides, beautiful backand he posseses. He has played Fed tough in the past. He has a TERRIBLE record VS ELITE PLAYERS, THO.......