Titans vs Bills
First Half Under 24.5 -120Derrick Henry Under 90.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Ryan Tannehill Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-115)
Tennessee and Buffalo played one of the most exciting games of the entire regular season last year on Monday Night Football when Josh Allen slipped and fell on a fourth-down sneak attempt as the Titans made the stop to secure a 34-31 comeback victory at home —- and while that game featured lots of scoring, I think we see one that is considerably less so.
The Titans’ offensive line finished Week 1 ranked 10th in Run Block Win Rate, and yet the offense never got the run game working consistently. Only the Bengals have a lower Rushing Success Rate thus far, and while the passing offense was mostly fine against the Giants with a top-10 EPA/play rating, the Titans were unable to move the chains on the ground. And in my estimation, that ain’t changing anytime soon, because RB Derrick Henry has virtually fallen off a cliff since early last season. If you exclude one 76-yard TD run against the Bills last season, he has averaged only 2.5 YPC in his last 100+ carries.
The unfortunate reality for the fans in Nashville is that; Tennessee’s rushing attack has regressed considerably in each of the last three seasons. In 2020, the Titans finished first in Rushing Success Rate and second only to the Ravens in rushing EPA/play. Fast-forward to 2021, and the Titans fell to 21st in Rushing Success Rate and 13th in rushing EPA/play. Even when you control for the Derrick Henry injury and only count when he played, they were eighth in EPA/play. This is no longer an elite running attack —- and the Bills might no longer be woeful like they were last year against the run.
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So with that in mind I loaded up three plays I think should best take advantage of those factoids. Need a big game here —- right the ship on the NFL before next week would be IDEAL.
