Monday NCAA

[PirateAlew]

8-3 Sunday/1079-871YTD
Hit #1 top play now 4 days in a row, and 3/4 Top plays with 1 loss, 1 push for a great Sunday. Played these for tomorrow. Rest later.

SE Louisiana ML-114
Northwestern State-2-117
Texas A&M CC-2-115
Grambling-8

Southern-4
Bucknell+2-115
Texas Tech ML-124

Tx Southern/Bethune Cookman Over 143
Wake Forest/Dook Over 151-112

Top plays: SE Louisiana, NW State, TAMU CC, Grambling

Good luck to all.

 

[Jeff13]

Pirate thanks for all your info you give us it really help....SE Louisiana lost to Texas by 14 this year and now favored on the road, I had SE marked because it was a fishy line what do you see.. Thanks again for your time

 

[PirateAlew]

Pirate thanks for all your info you give us it really help....SE Louisiana lost to Texas by 14 this year and now favored on the road, I had SE marked because it was a fishy line what do you see.. Thanks again for your time

Sorry just saw this as I'm running a bit behind thanks to an unexpected ER visit for a few hours this AM.

Looking at my notes and analysis from last night, yes, you are Correct Texas A&M Commerce did beat SELA by 14 on the road earlier this year in January but since then, it's been a tail of 2 team going different directions. SELA has now won 4 straight, 4 of its last 5 while Tex has only won 2 of it's last 5 in the same conference and similar competition.
Furthermore Ken Pom rankings as of today show that SELA is improving while Tex is going down, with SELA ranked 266 overall vs Tex at 326, Offense SELA is 236 vs tex at a terrible 339. The Lions of SELA are averaging 68.3 points per game on 43.9% shooting while Tex is averaging slightly better at 71.7 pts but a bit worse shooting at 42% but the big descrepency again is pts allowed and shooting.

SELA allows 69.9 pts per game on 43.5% shooting from opponents, while Tex is now allowing a much worse 73.7 pts per on 45.4% shooting from its oppenents. Last thing I saw that stood out is SELA is shooting better from the 3 point line and FT line which is crucial in these game, esp on the road, where SELA is shooting 34.3% from 3 and a respectable 72.1% from the charity stripe, Tex is shooting a bit worse from both at 31.9 from 3 and 70.2 from FT. The Lions of SELA are only allowing 32.7% shooting from its foes at the 3 point line while Tex is allowing 33.7.

Lastly SELA has a slight rebound advantage grabbing near 31 boards a game while tex cc is pulling down 28.8 boards per game. The line with them favored, and on the road, in light of the last game, leads me to believe these really are 2 teams going opposite directions the last month, with SELA the better team of late and on paper in most categories.
Hope that helps.

 

[poppers]

Good Luck PirateAlew!!

 

[indiana]

P. Alew....welcome back buddy.....thank you for the added effort....
BOL with your action today....indy

 

[PirateAlew]

Going with the home team in crazy Cameron with a Dook team that has an avg margin of victory of 12.6 points in its 9 Conference wins, behind a Dook team avg 8.2 more points at home against a Weak Forest team who's offensive scoring decreases by nearly 9 points per game on the road. Wake is also 2-5 SU and ATS on the road this year, further their one common Opponent is UNC, where dook lost to the Heels by 9 and Wake by 21. Dook is only giving up 67 points per game on 43% shooting while wake is givng up nearly 71 pts per on 43% shooting. On the glass, Dook is grabbing down 36 boards a game and has a good +4.2 rebound differential per game against wake who is pulling down 35 boards and holds a +2.3 rebound differential.
Defensively, Dook is the better team as well avg 6.7 steals and nearly 4 blocks per, while Wake gets 5.9 steals per and also 4 blocks per, but more startling is the assist to turnover ratio, which will be crucial in raucous Cameron (I know well, growing up in Chapel Hill 5 minutes away, having lived in Durham and been to many a Dook game as a UNC fan/spectator). Wake is turning the ball over 11.2 times per game, with a 1.1 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is good for 152nd in the NCAA, while Dook holds the clear edge, turning the ball over 9.3 times a game which is fewest in ACC, leaving them at a stellar 1.67 assist-to-TO ration which also is good for a 12th ranking in the NCAA. Backing the Blue Devils in Cameron against Mom's alma matter.

Duke-6-117 (Top Play)

updated order:
SE Louisiana ML-114 (See writeup)
Northwestern State-2-117
Dook-6-117 (See writeup)
Texas A&M CC-2-115
Grambling-8
Southern-4
Bucknell+2-115
Texas Tech ML-124
Tx Southern/Bethune Cookman Over 143
Wake Forest/Dook Over 151-112
Top plays: SE Louisiana, NW State, Duke, TAMU CC, Grambling

 

[JimmyVegas]

Where did you get Texas Tech -124 ML? Just bought 1.5 points for Texas Tech for -2 and that was -145.

 

[PirateAlew]

Where did you get Texas Tech -124 ML? Just bought 1.5 points for Texas Tech for -2 and that was -145.

Last night at midnight as posted above. It was Tex Tech-1.5 at that time. ML was in the mid 120's. Line has gone up significantly through the day. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/ncaa-basketball/

 

[PirateAlew]

Couldnt resist a bit more SWAC action

Praire View A&M ML-111 (Top play)
South East Lousiana/Tex A&M CC Over 132

Updated Order:
SE Louisiana ML-114 (See writeup)
Northwestern State-2-117
Duke-6-117 (see Writeup)
Praire View A&M ML-111
Texas A&M CC-2-115
Grambling-8

Southern-4
Bucknell+2-115
Texas Tech ML-124
Tx Southern/Bethune Cookman Over 143
South East Lousiana/Tex A&M CC Over 132
Wake Forest/Dook Over 151-112
Top plays: SE Louisiana, NW State, Duke, Praire View, TAMU CC, Grambling

 

[djrob]

Pirate Buck now -2

 

[PirateAlew]

Pirate Buck now -2

Hopefully they win by 10+ to make it easy against a tired Lehigh team from their last game a double OT thriller

 

[PirateAlew]

West Virginia+13
Towson-11-115

 

[PirateAlew]

Pirate Buck now -2

Bucknell star big man was scratched at last minute right before tip. was watching it live but didnt hear what happened. Bucknell had to go to a very small lineup and and started 4 guards it looked like. Prob not good for anyone on Bucknell tonight.

 

[Cheddar]

For a guy who hates small school Monday, it's a large card. GL

 

[PirateAlew]

For a guy who hates small school Monday, it's a large card. GL

Looks like it sure worked out! cashed #1-3 top plays again, 5 days in a row #1 cashed in NCAA. Great night! Two writeups were spot on.

 

[PirateAlew]

Couldnt resist a bit more SWAC action

Praire View A&M ML-111 (Top play)
South East Lousiana/Tex A&M CC Over 132

Updated Order:
SE Louisiana ML-114 (See writeup)
Northwestern State-2-117
Duke-6-117 (see Writeup)
Praire View A&M ML-111
Texas A&M CC-2-115
Grambling-8

Southern-4
Bucknell+2-115
Texas Tech ML-124
Tx Southern/Bethune Cookman Over 143
South East Lousiana/Tex A&M CC Over 132
Wake Forest/Dook Over 151-112
Top plays: SE Louisiana, NW State, Duke, Praire View, TAMU CC, Grambling

SE Louisiana ML-114 (See writeup)-W

Northwestern State-2-117-W

Duke-6-117 (see Writeup)-W

Praire View A&M ML-111-W

Texas A&M CC-2-115-L

Grambling-8-L

Southern-4-W

Bucknell+2-115-L (lose in OT, leading scorer sat out at tip)

Texas Tech ML-124-W

West Virginia+13-L

Towson-11-115-W

Tx Southern/Bethune Cookman Over 143-W

South East Lousiana/Tex A&M CC Over 132-W

Wake Forest/Dook Over 151-112-L

Top plays: SE Louisiana, NW State, Duke, Praire View, TAMU CC, Grambling


Monster NCAA night. cashed #1-4 top plays. 9-5 overall. Hope you all cashed. thanks for the messages! I will try to answer all.