No. 1
Georgia and No. 3
TCU will square off in the College Football Playoff National Championship at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on Monday night to decide this seaon's national championship. The Bulldogs are coming off of a 42-41 win over No. 4 Ohio State in the Peach Bowl semifinal, and the Horned Frogs are still surging after stunning No. 2 Michigan 51-45 in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal.
Georgia is looking to become the first repeat national champions of the CFP era and the first since Alabama accomplished the feat in 2011-12. Led by Heisman Trophy finalist Stetson Bennett IV at quarterback, the Dawgs have evolved into one of the most balanced and efficient offenses in the country. The Frogs sent a player to New York as a Heisman finalist as well. Max Duggan, who didn't even start the season as TCU's No. 1 signal-caller, has emerged into one of the most dynamic players in the country.
What should you expect in Los Angeles on Monday night? Let's break down the game and make picks straight up and against the spread.
Bulldogs have evolved outside: Heading into the playoff, Georgia's list of top pass catchers was incredibly bizarre. Its leading receiver was a tight end (Brock Bowers) with a wide receiver (Ladd McConkey) and running back (Kenny McIntosh) filling out the top three. Things became apparent in the Peach Bowl that Bennett has more weapons outside than initially thought.
No. 1
Georgia and No. 3
TCU will square off in the College Football Playoff National Championship at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on Monday night to decide this seaon's national championship. The Bulldogs are coming off of a 42-41 win over No. 4 Ohio State in the Peach Bowl semifinal, and the Horned Frogs are still surging after stunning No. 2 Michigan 51-45 in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal.
Georgia is looking to become the first repeat national champions of the CFP era and the first since Alabama accomplished the feat in 2011-12. Led by Heisman Trophy finalist Stetson Bennett IV at quarterback, the Dawgs have evolved into one of the most balanced and efficient offenses in the country. The Frogs sent a player to New York as a Heisman finalist as well. Max Duggan, who didn't even start the season as TCU's No. 1 signal-caller, has emerged into one of the most dynamic players in the country.
What should you expect in Los Angeles on Monday night? Let's break down the game and make picks straight up and against the spread.
Georgia vs. TCU: Need to know
Bulldogs have evolved outside: Heading into the playoff, Georgia's list of top pass catchers was incredibly bizarre. Its leading receiver was a tight end (Brock Bowers) with a wide receiver (Ladd McConkey) and running back (Kenny McIntosh) filling out the top three. Things became apparent in the Peach Bowl that Bennett has more weapons outside than initially thought.
Adonai Mitchell, who had been hurt for the majority of the season, had the game-winning touchdown and 43 yards receiving, Arian Smith had 129 yards and a critical fourth-quarter score, and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint had two critical catches. It's enormous that all of these receivers stepped up especially considering McConkey isn't 100% after suffering a knee injury last month and the status of monster tight end Darnell Washington is up in the air.
"We've had a musical chairs, and most people do because people have injuries at wide receiver positions but between AD, Marcus, there's been a lot there," coach Kirby Smart said this week. And I think [WR coach] Bryan McClendon and [offensive coordinator Todd] Monken have done a tremendous job of slicing and dicing those roles.
TCU's running back watch: Star rusher Kendre Miller, who has rumbled for 1,399 yards and 17 touchdowns this season, left the Fiesta Bowl with a knee injury. His status for the title game
is still a mystery. If he can't go, senior Emari Demercado will likely get the first-team reps. Demercado rushed for 125 yards on 14 carries and ripped off a critical 69-yarder in the third quarter. Louisiana transfer
Emani Bailey had 29 carries, 241 yards rushing and two touchdowns this season, and he will likely serve as the primary backup. Bailey posted 642 yards and eight touchdowns last season with the Ragin' Cajuns.
"I think he's feeling pretty good," coach Sonny Dykes said of Miller. "We got a pretty good (evaluation) on him the night before last when we got back from Phoenix. He was pretty sore. Woke up yesterday, felt a little bit better. I just saw him a little bit ago. He's feeling better today. So I would say he's probably questionable, would be the way I would present it. We'll see how he progresses through the week, see how he feels, and we'll try to make a determination as we get closer to game time whether we think he's going to be ready to play or not."
Battle for big plays: Wide receiver Quinten Johnston has been the go-to pass catcher for Duggan all season, and he will have a very interesting matchup Monday night against an ultra-talented Dawgs secondary.
"We're just starting to get into them today but their size on the outside stands out a lot," Georgia defensive back Javon Bullard said this week. "We know they've got some very large receivers, big catch radiuses and they can run. Anytime you have that size on the perimeter, whether it's quick game or deep balls, it's always a great matchup."
However, that secondary got torched by Ohio State's passing game and, in particular, star wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. That came one game after LSU put up 502 yards passing in the SEC Championship Game.
"Ohio State made some big plays against them," Dykes said. "And I'm sure particularly in the passing game. And I'm sure they're going to work to get some of those issues addressed. And, quite frankly, they just made some contested plays, and Ohio State's got a really good group of wide receivers. And those guys really played well."
The chess match between the Frogs' receivers and Dawgs' secondary could determine the outcome of the title game.
Barrett Sallee: TCU is 9-3-1 against the spread this season, but it hasn't faced anything like what is going to face in the title game. Georgia's speed, depth and experience will end the TCU's magical run in a game that will resemble the Dawgs' win over Tennessee earlier in the season. They will win the line of scrimmage early, translate that into a couple of first-half touchdowns and deflate the football en route to a resounding win that they will control from the outset. The public will want a shootout similar to what both of these teams produced last weekend. Sadly for the public, it will be the polar opposite.
Pick: Georgia (-13) | Georgia 31, TCU 14
Tom Fornelli: I've stopped trying to figure out who TCU can and cannot beat this year, and for this game,. I'm focusing on the total. There have been eight CFP National Championships, and they've tended to be high scoring despite featuring some of the best defenses in the country. The eight games have averaged 64.5 points. While it's true that having an elite defense is often what separates the top-tier teams from the rest of the pack, once you get to this point, we've seen time and again it's the offense that wins out. I expect that will be the case Monday. The teams may not be led by future first-round NFL Draft picks, but Duggan and Bennett weren't Heisman finalists this season by accident.
Pick: Over 62.5 | Georgia 38, TCU 30