Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Monday 10:2o PM NFL
(491) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at (492) ARIZONA CARDINALS
Take: (491) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS +3
I’m sticking straight with my rankings on this game, and believe me when I say that I really blew it by not just going exclusively with my numbers yesterday. Live and learn.
I have the Chargers as one of the best offensive teams in the NFL entering the new season. I’m expecting what should be a well protected Philip Rivers to have a huge campaign, and basically don’t see much concern anywhere with this unit as long as the starters remain healthy. The bad news is that San Diego might well need to be outscoring their opponents, as I’m not nearly as bullish on their defense. But my overall pre-season power ratings have the Chargers as a team that will be playing in January, although I’ve still got them behind the Broncos in the AFC West.
I’m not as high on Arizona. The Cardinals should not be bad by any means. But when tabulating the overall results from my three sets of ratings (offense, defense and the frequently overlooked special teams) the bottom line calculated them as basically an average team. Obviously, these numbers aren’t chiseled in granite and it’s entirely possible I’ll just be dead wrong on some teams. But I thought the Cardinals might have enjoyed some good fortune at times last season, and I’ve got them well behind the two power teams in the NFC West and no better than middle of the pack overall.
It’s really as simple as that as far as tonight’s call is concerned. This game grades out virtually dead even when including the home field advantage, and that makes getting a field goal with the road team a rock solid value. I’m trusting the numbers and grabbing the Chargers with the points tonight.
Bonus Play Monday 10:2o PM NFL
(491) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at (492) ARIZONA CARDINALS
Take: (491) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS +3
I’m sticking straight with my rankings on this game, and believe me when I say that I really blew it by not just going exclusively with my numbers yesterday. Live and learn.
I have the Chargers as one of the best offensive teams in the NFL entering the new season. I’m expecting what should be a well protected Philip Rivers to have a huge campaign, and basically don’t see much concern anywhere with this unit as long as the starters remain healthy. The bad news is that San Diego might well need to be outscoring their opponents, as I’m not nearly as bullish on their defense. But my overall pre-season power ratings have the Chargers as a team that will be playing in January, although I’ve still got them behind the Broncos in the AFC West.
I’m not as high on Arizona. The Cardinals should not be bad by any means. But when tabulating the overall results from my three sets of ratings (offense, defense and the frequently overlooked special teams) the bottom line calculated them as basically an average team. Obviously, these numbers aren’t chiseled in granite and it’s entirely possible I’ll just be dead wrong on some teams. But I thought the Cardinals might have enjoyed some good fortune at times last season, and I’ve got them well behind the two power teams in the NFC West and no better than middle of the pack overall.
It’s really as simple as that as far as tonight’s call is concerned. This game grades out virtually dead even when including the home field advantage, and that makes getting a field goal with the road team a rock solid value. I’m trusting the numbers and grabbing the Chargers with the points tonight.
Jim Feist
Comp MLB Pick for Monday, September 8, 2014: 7:05 PM ET
(951) ATLANTA BRAVES VS (952) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Take: (952) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Monday, September 8, 2014 is in the MLB contest between the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals. As we come down the home stretch of the MLB season, the Washington Nationals have the NL East pretty well sewed-up with a seven game lead over the 2nd place Braves. That makes this a make or break series for the Braves. IF they can take at least two, then they shave into the lead. Also more important for the Braves is that they trail in the NL Wildcard race by 1/2 game to Pittsbugh and San Francisco. So while maybe the division crown is a long shot, a Wild Card is definitely in the mix. The main issue with the Braves is their offense, ranked 29th in runs, 24th in batting average and 26th in slugging percentage - not good numbers for a team looking to make the playoffs. Mike Minor starts for the Braves with a 6-9 record, 4.65 and mediocre 1.41 WHIP. Minor lost his last game, but has looked much better of late, going at least seven innings in each of his last four starts. Doug Fister has been a huge addition to the Nats team, posting a 12-6 record, 2.66 ERA and 1.15 WHIP since coming over from Detroit. Fister has lost three straight starts so look for the veteran to get back on track as the team heads to the post season. The Braves lack of offense is just what Fister needs to get back on track. Add to that a mediocre Braves pitcher and I'll lay the price here with the Nationals.
Comp MLB Pick for Monday, September 8, 2014: 7:05 PM ET
(951) ATLANTA BRAVES VS (952) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Take: (952) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Monday, September 8, 2014 is in the MLB contest between the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals. As we come down the home stretch of the MLB season, the Washington Nationals have the NL East pretty well sewed-up with a seven game lead over the 2nd place Braves. That makes this a make or break series for the Braves. IF they can take at least two, then they shave into the lead. Also more important for the Braves is that they trail in the NL Wildcard race by 1/2 game to Pittsbugh and San Francisco. So while maybe the division crown is a long shot, a Wild Card is definitely in the mix. The main issue with the Braves is their offense, ranked 29th in runs, 24th in batting average and 26th in slugging percentage - not good numbers for a team looking to make the playoffs. Mike Minor starts for the Braves with a 6-9 record, 4.65 and mediocre 1.41 WHIP. Minor lost his last game, but has looked much better of late, going at least seven innings in each of his last four starts. Doug Fister has been a huge addition to the Nats team, posting a 12-6 record, 2.66 ERA and 1.15 WHIP since coming over from Detroit. Fister has lost three straight starts so look for the veteran to get back on track as the team heads to the post season. The Braves lack of offense is just what Fister needs to get back on track. Add to that a mediocre Braves pitcher and I'll lay the price here with the Nationals.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7800 Class Rating: 60
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 8 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 2 SCARLET HALL 9/2
# 1 GET ON WITH IT 4/1
# 5 DARN THAT GLITTER 8/1
SCARLET HALL looks formidable to best this field. She has earned very good numbers under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this group of animals. GET ON WITH IT - Looks very good to be on the lead at the first call. Decent choice to take this race going in a dirt sprint.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7800 Class Rating: 60
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 8 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 2 SCARLET HALL 9/2
# 1 GET ON WITH IT 4/1
# 5 DARN THAT GLITTER 8/1
SCARLET HALL looks formidable to best this field. She has earned very good numbers under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this group of animals. GET ON WITH IT - Looks very good to be on the lead at the first call. Decent choice to take this race going in a dirt sprint.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Suffolk Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 70
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MARCH 8. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 AMELIA ROSE 2/1
# 7 AMAZING DIXIE 5/2
# 6 ORIENTAL QUEEN 10/1
AMELIA ROSE looks solid to best this field. Has garnered formidable Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Earned a formidable Equibase speed fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest. Is difficult not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been solid - 67 avg - of late. AMAZING DIXIE - She has been running very well and the speed figures are among the best in this group of horses. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 70
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MARCH 8. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 AMELIA ROSE 2/1
# 7 AMAZING DIXIE 5/2
# 6 ORIENTAL QUEEN 10/1
AMELIA ROSE looks solid to best this field. Has garnered formidable Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Earned a formidable Equibase speed fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest. Is difficult not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been solid - 67 avg - of late. AMAZING DIXIE - She has been running very well and the speed figures are among the best in this group of horses. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Mountaineer - Race #4 - Post: 8:06pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,800 Class Rating: 74
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#7 PUMPKIN PUSHER (ML=6/1)
#1 IT'S HUGE (ML=3/1)
#6 BALTIC COAST (ML=8/1)
PUMPKIN PUSHER - When Denninger and Love work together on equines the return on investment has been fabulous at +248. IT'S HUGE - The Jul 17th event at Presque Isle Downs was at a class level of (83). Dropping down the ladder based on class significantly, so he should be in a good spot to win. BALTIC COAST - Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. This gelding should get an ideal trip in this spot. He looks like the only 'stalker' in this contest.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 LEFTY CLOSER (ML=5/2), #1A ASONGFORSAICHI (ML=3/1), #2 CHIQUITO KISSES (ML=4/1),
LEFTY CLOSER - Didn't land in the money on Apr 16th at Mountaineer. Followed it up with another lackluster effort. This questionable contender ran a mediocre speed figure last race out. He shouldn't improve and will probably lose in today's event running that figure. ASONGFORSAICHI - This entrant hasn't shown much life in the last two races. CHIQUITO KISSES - Tough to support any horse that runs as well as he did and then lays up and doesn't workout at all.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BALTIC COAST - Although he ran sixth on Aug 26th, the try wasn't half bad. Expect a good effort this time out.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #7 PUMPKIN PUSHER to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
7 with [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
Bar
Mountaineer - Race #4 - Post: 8:06pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,800 Class Rating: 74
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#7 PUMPKIN PUSHER (ML=6/1)
#1 IT'S HUGE (ML=3/1)
#6 BALTIC COAST (ML=8/1)
PUMPKIN PUSHER - When Denninger and Love work together on equines the return on investment has been fabulous at +248. IT'S HUGE - The Jul 17th event at Presque Isle Downs was at a class level of (83). Dropping down the ladder based on class significantly, so he should be in a good spot to win. BALTIC COAST - Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. This gelding should get an ideal trip in this spot. He looks like the only 'stalker' in this contest.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 LEFTY CLOSER (ML=5/2), #1A ASONGFORSAICHI (ML=3/1), #2 CHIQUITO KISSES (ML=4/1),
LEFTY CLOSER - Didn't land in the money on Apr 16th at Mountaineer. Followed it up with another lackluster effort. This questionable contender ran a mediocre speed figure last race out. He shouldn't improve and will probably lose in today's event running that figure. ASONGFORSAICHI - This entrant hasn't shown much life in the last two races. CHIQUITO KISSES - Tough to support any horse that runs as well as he did and then lays up and doesn't workout at all.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BALTIC COAST - Although he ran sixth on Aug 26th, the try wasn't half bad. Expect a good effort this time out.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #7 PUMPKIN PUSHER to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
7 with [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Zia Park - Race #12 - Post: 5:23pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,500 Class Rating: 55
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#7 CHAKA ROLL (ML=6/1)
#1 PACHES DARK RUNNER (ML=3/1)
CHAKA ROLL - A win pct the likes of what Medina and De La Cruz have achieved together is out of sight. Took a significant drop in class rating in the last race at Sunland Park. Returning to a similar class level in this race. Should do well. PACHES DARK RUNNER - Taking a trip down the ladder based on class; has the capability to make his presence felt.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TEXAS TIME TERAS (ML=5/2), #2 STYLISH PUNCH (ML=5/1), #6 PRINCE BOB (ML=6/1),
TEXAS TIME TERAS - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last two outings. In any contest of 6 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been on the board in sprint contests recently. STYLISH PUNCH - Recorded a quite unimpressive speed figure last time out in a $6,500 Maiden Claiming race on August 16th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that rating. PRINCE BOB - Tough to go with this mount at 6 furlongs after showcasing no speed at 1 mile. Improbable for this participant to do much running with no recent success in a short distance affair. A rallier like this one needs an early battle to set things up and he isn't likely to get one this time out.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #7 CHAKA ROLL to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
Bar
Zia Park - Race #12 - Post: 5:23pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,500 Class Rating: 55
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#7 CHAKA ROLL (ML=6/1)
#1 PACHES DARK RUNNER (ML=3/1)
CHAKA ROLL - A win pct the likes of what Medina and De La Cruz have achieved together is out of sight. Took a significant drop in class rating in the last race at Sunland Park. Returning to a similar class level in this race. Should do well. PACHES DARK RUNNER - Taking a trip down the ladder based on class; has the capability to make his presence felt.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TEXAS TIME TERAS (ML=5/2), #2 STYLISH PUNCH (ML=5/1), #6 PRINCE BOB (ML=6/1),
TEXAS TIME TERAS - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last two outings. In any contest of 6 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been on the board in sprint contests recently. STYLISH PUNCH - Recorded a quite unimpressive speed figure last time out in a $6,500 Maiden Claiming race on August 16th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that rating. PRINCE BOB - Tough to go with this mount at 6 furlongs after showcasing no speed at 1 mile. Improbable for this participant to do much running with no recent success in a short distance affair. A rallier like this one needs an early battle to set things up and he isn't likely to get one this time out.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #7 CHAKA ROLL to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 10 - Post: 9:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 91 - Purse:$12500 - OPEN NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER NORTHFIELD TRAINER CHANGE HN 5 T.LUTHER TO J.MILLER
CONSORTIUM CHOICES
Chatsworth Consortium
# 1 ROADSIDE DELIGHT 4/1
# 2 ROCKIN FINISH 7/2
# 7 OBJECT OF ART 15/1
ROADSIDE DELIGHT is the finest wager in this contest. Been racing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class advantage. (Average Rating 92). With very good win numbers, Sutton should have this gelding in excellent position to win the gathering. Has one of the best win statistics in the grouping and may be able to add to those stats today. ROCKIN FINISH - Many harness players will recognize the exemplary speed rating in the last contest. Stacks up against any horse in this pack. Strong driver/conditioner figures make this horse a bang-up choice. Most definitely will be putting mucho dinero down here. OBJECT OF ART - Worth a look here looking at the markings in the speed fig department alone. This nice horse looks tough considering the high class ratings. Don't throw out of any exotics.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 10 - Post: 9:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 91 - Purse:$12500 - OPEN NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER NORTHFIELD TRAINER CHANGE HN 5 T.LUTHER TO J.MILLER
CONSORTIUM CHOICES
Chatsworth Consortium
# 1 ROADSIDE DELIGHT 4/1
# 2 ROCKIN FINISH 7/2
# 7 OBJECT OF ART 15/1
ROADSIDE DELIGHT is the finest wager in this contest. Been racing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class advantage. (Average Rating 92). With very good win numbers, Sutton should have this gelding in excellent position to win the gathering. Has one of the best win statistics in the grouping and may be able to add to those stats today. ROCKIN FINISH - Many harness players will recognize the exemplary speed rating in the last contest. Stacks up against any horse in this pack. Strong driver/conditioner figures make this horse a bang-up choice. Most definitely will be putting mucho dinero down here. OBJECT OF ART - Worth a look here looking at the markings in the speed fig department alone. This nice horse looks tough considering the high class ratings. Don't throw out of any exotics.
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 10 - Post: 10:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 91 - Purse:$20000 - NON-WINNERS OF $12,000 IN LAST 6 STARTS WINNERS OVER $70,000 IN 2014 NOT ELIGIBLE.
CONSORTIUM CHOICES
Chatsworth Consortium
# 2 GOBAN 8/5
# 3 LETTUCEROCKU A 7/2
# 6 REAL FLIGHT 12/1
GOBAN sure does look ready to end up in the winner's circle. This gelding getting the top prize wouldn't be impossible, a chance. His 93 average has this gelding among the top speed figures in this contest. A very good class horse can't be passed over. With an avg class rating of 94 all signs say this is the one to beat. LETTUCEROCKU A - Bartlett has been on fire over the last 30 days, winning at a really good 21 percent. A great play in here as he has one of the highest winning statistics in the field as well as solid credentials all around. REAL FLIGHT - Considered a solid bet based solely on his high win clip.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 10 - Post: 10:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 91 - Purse:$20000 - NON-WINNERS OF $12,000 IN LAST 6 STARTS WINNERS OVER $70,000 IN 2014 NOT ELIGIBLE.
CONSORTIUM CHOICES
Chatsworth Consortium
# 2 GOBAN 8/5
# 3 LETTUCEROCKU A 7/2
# 6 REAL FLIGHT 12/1
GOBAN sure does look ready to end up in the winner's circle. This gelding getting the top prize wouldn't be impossible, a chance. His 93 average has this gelding among the top speed figures in this contest. A very good class horse can't be passed over. With an avg class rating of 94 all signs say this is the one to beat. LETTUCEROCKU A - Bartlett has been on fire over the last 30 days, winning at a really good 21 percent. A great play in here as he has one of the highest winning statistics in the field as well as solid credentials all around. REAL FLIGHT - Considered a solid bet based solely on his high win clip.
Northfield: Monday 9/8 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day
DRF HARNESS
Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:
3 / 5,6,7,8 / 1,2,3 / 5,9 = $24
Best Bet: HEZA RUBE (5th)
Spot Play: HERE’S HOOTER (4th)
Race 1
(6) CHANGE THE FUTURE gets a big driver change and will be used aggressively. (9) TWIGHLIGHT METEOR just needs to get a decent spot out of the gate for a good shot late. (3) CHRISTINA VICTORY looks terrible on paper but the trainer could be on the verge of breaking out; threat.
Race 2
(2) FOLLOW THROUGH has just been racing evenly but finds a very inconsistent field. (1) REBEL JET gets the best post down in class. (3) ABSOLUTELY MICHAEL will probably be overbet a touch based on his fast lines at Pocono; command a price.
Race 3
(6) PARTYATYOURPLACE takes a big drop in class and has been trotting faster than most of the field. (1) WIND SURFER closed good ground from a tough spot last out and also drops in class. (2) MASTER'S SWEETIE was a game winner last race but will need more; use underneath.
Race 4
(4) HERES HOOTER pacer makes his second start for a new trainer and showed good improvement last out. (6) NO SHENANIGANS comes into the race off of two powerhouse efforts and will look to set sail early. (1) FREDSABULLDOG gelding makes his first start for new connections who have a good percentage in this scenario. The pacer was also the driver's choice.
Race 5
(4) HEZA RUBE gelding has a ton of ability and is a smooth trip away from a victory. (1) VICTORY CANDY MAN gelding has been tough to catch when he gets an easy lead; fires early. (6) MYSTERY XPOSED will offer a big price but is very inconsistent and is probably best used underneath.
Race 6
(5) LOST JEWELS is racing better than his lines indicate and is versatile. (2) THE CLASSIC Z TAM is pacing up a storm but does face tougher; threat. (8) LEGAL BRIEF needs a lot of racing luck but could hit the ticket late.
Race 7
(2) BEAUTY CHIP has raced much better in his last three efforts and finds a wide open and evenly matched field; driver's choice. (1) PINE TAB has yet to win on the year but has been knocking on the door. (9) DOC BOYCE went to fast against much tougher last out. The trotter should get a good pace to close into.
Race 8
(3) CHASE THE SUN has been automatic at this level; fires early. (4) ACTION METRO MAX has not had a victory in a really long time but has been pacing some decent miles; needs more. (2) FOX RIVER MARK has good early gate speed and could be in line for an ideal trip up close.
Race 9
(5) ROSE RUN LOGAN came up a little empty on the fair circuit but is reunited with a top driver. (7) WAR CRY HALL has been facing much tougher but needs to move forward off the gate for any kind of chance. (6) MYTHICAL HALL can really fire off the gate which could make him a threat with some racing luck.
Race 10
(1) ROADSIDE DELIGHT has been a terror in this class all year long and now benefits from the best post. (3) ARTIST NIGHT gelding has vicious speed and is capable of carrying it a long way. (2) ROCKIN FINISH could have needed his start last out and has the most ability in the race when right.
Race 11
(9) TRUE TO MACH went a big three quarters of a mile last out against tougher; big chance. (5) CAN HE GO has had a tough time sealing the deal at this track despite the eight wins on the year. However the pacer is capable of ripping off a big mile. (7) JUST CROWNED was an easy winner at this level a few starts ago; threat.
Race 12
(1) MARY'S DARVIN is usually a slow starter but the rail should help. The 8-year-old trotter went a big effort last race and will be tough to beat with a repeat of that effort. (2) SUPER LUSTRE takes a bump down in class and could get the jump on the top choice. (6) JESSE'S MESSENGER mare is inconsistent from week to week but a good effort puts her on the ticket.
Race 13
(3) SHEER DESIRE veteran pacer owns a class edge on the field and looks to be primed for a good effort. (4) K C COLT has been lights out in his last two efforts but does bump up in class. (2) CHROME SEELSTER bumps up in class off an easy victory but would need much more; use underneath.
Race 14
(1) SKULL OF ROSES should offer value and can handle this bunch with a good effort. (2) LIVELIKEURDYING was tiring badly last out before hooking wheels. The gelding is a threat but needs to ration out his speed for his best chance. (5) JUMPIN JACK J is capable of pacing a good mile and finds a wide open race.
Race 15
(6) FORTUNE'S JENNA gelding pacer loves to win and bumps down in class. (4) DUTCHTREAT HANOVER has been hitting the board consistently; threat. (9) ROYAL CAM-HALL could have a rough go of it from the second tier and will offer low value; use caution.
By Jeremey Day
DRF HARNESS
Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:
3 / 5,6,7,8 / 1,2,3 / 5,9 = $24
Best Bet: HEZA RUBE (5th)
Spot Play: HERE’S HOOTER (4th)
Race 1
(6) CHANGE THE FUTURE gets a big driver change and will be used aggressively. (9) TWIGHLIGHT METEOR just needs to get a decent spot out of the gate for a good shot late. (3) CHRISTINA VICTORY looks terrible on paper but the trainer could be on the verge of breaking out; threat.
Race 2
(2) FOLLOW THROUGH has just been racing evenly but finds a very inconsistent field. (1) REBEL JET gets the best post down in class. (3) ABSOLUTELY MICHAEL will probably be overbet a touch based on his fast lines at Pocono; command a price.
Race 3
(6) PARTYATYOURPLACE takes a big drop in class and has been trotting faster than most of the field. (1) WIND SURFER closed good ground from a tough spot last out and also drops in class. (2) MASTER'S SWEETIE was a game winner last race but will need more; use underneath.
Race 4
(4) HERES HOOTER pacer makes his second start for a new trainer and showed good improvement last out. (6) NO SHENANIGANS comes into the race off of two powerhouse efforts and will look to set sail early. (1) FREDSABULLDOG gelding makes his first start for new connections who have a good percentage in this scenario. The pacer was also the driver's choice.
Race 5
(4) HEZA RUBE gelding has a ton of ability and is a smooth trip away from a victory. (1) VICTORY CANDY MAN gelding has been tough to catch when he gets an easy lead; fires early. (6) MYSTERY XPOSED will offer a big price but is very inconsistent and is probably best used underneath.
Race 6
(5) LOST JEWELS is racing better than his lines indicate and is versatile. (2) THE CLASSIC Z TAM is pacing up a storm but does face tougher; threat. (8) LEGAL BRIEF needs a lot of racing luck but could hit the ticket late.
Race 7
(2) BEAUTY CHIP has raced much better in his last three efforts and finds a wide open and evenly matched field; driver's choice. (1) PINE TAB has yet to win on the year but has been knocking on the door. (9) DOC BOYCE went to fast against much tougher last out. The trotter should get a good pace to close into.
Race 8
(3) CHASE THE SUN has been automatic at this level; fires early. (4) ACTION METRO MAX has not had a victory in a really long time but has been pacing some decent miles; needs more. (2) FOX RIVER MARK has good early gate speed and could be in line for an ideal trip up close.
Race 9
(5) ROSE RUN LOGAN came up a little empty on the fair circuit but is reunited with a top driver. (7) WAR CRY HALL has been facing much tougher but needs to move forward off the gate for any kind of chance. (6) MYTHICAL HALL can really fire off the gate which could make him a threat with some racing luck.
Race 10
(1) ROADSIDE DELIGHT has been a terror in this class all year long and now benefits from the best post. (3) ARTIST NIGHT gelding has vicious speed and is capable of carrying it a long way. (2) ROCKIN FINISH could have needed his start last out and has the most ability in the race when right.
Race 11
(9) TRUE TO MACH went a big three quarters of a mile last out against tougher; big chance. (5) CAN HE GO has had a tough time sealing the deal at this track despite the eight wins on the year. However the pacer is capable of ripping off a big mile. (7) JUST CROWNED was an easy winner at this level a few starts ago; threat.
Race 12
(1) MARY'S DARVIN is usually a slow starter but the rail should help. The 8-year-old trotter went a big effort last race and will be tough to beat with a repeat of that effort. (2) SUPER LUSTRE takes a bump down in class and could get the jump on the top choice. (6) JESSE'S MESSENGER mare is inconsistent from week to week but a good effort puts her on the ticket.
Race 13
(3) SHEER DESIRE veteran pacer owns a class edge on the field and looks to be primed for a good effort. (4) K C COLT has been lights out in his last two efforts but does bump up in class. (2) CHROME SEELSTER bumps up in class off an easy victory but would need much more; use underneath.
Race 14
(1) SKULL OF ROSES should offer value and can handle this bunch with a good effort. (2) LIVELIKEURDYING was tiring badly last out before hooking wheels. The gelding is a threat but needs to ration out his speed for his best chance. (5) JUMPIN JACK J is capable of pacing a good mile and finds a wide open race.
Race 15
(6) FORTUNE'S JENNA gelding pacer loves to win and bumps down in class. (4) DUTCHTREAT HANOVER has been hitting the board consistently; threat. (9) ROYAL CAM-HALL could have a rough go of it from the second tier and will offer low value; use caution.
SPOT PLAYS
For Monday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Finger Lakes (2nd) Pleiadian, 8-1
(5th) Diamond Showcase, 4-1
Mountaineer (2nd) Enjoyable Journey, 9-2
(4th) Chiquito Kisses, 4-1
Parx Racing (2nd) Wild Nicole, 3-1
(5th) R Clever Cat, 6-1
Presque Isle Downs (2nd) Moon Map, 7-2
(7th) Noya, 3-1
Suffolk Downs (3rd) Tigger's Gold, 3-1
(4th) Freud's Desire, 6-1
For Monday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Finger Lakes (2nd) Pleiadian, 8-1
(5th) Diamond Showcase, 4-1
Mountaineer (2nd) Enjoyable Journey, 9-2
(4th) Chiquito Kisses, 4-1
Parx Racing (2nd) Wild Nicole, 3-1
(5th) R Clever Cat, 6-1
Presque Isle Downs (2nd) Moon Map, 7-2
(7th) Noya, 3-1
Suffolk Downs (3rd) Tigger's Gold, 3-1
(4th) Freud's Desire, 6-1
Art Aronson
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
1* Bonus Play on the Washington Nationals
The visiting Atlanta Braves will send Mike Minor (6-9, 4.65 ERA) to the hill; Minor has pitched well of late but hasn’t gotten the run support to earn wins. Note that Minor has notched five straight quality starts over his last five trips to the mound but has just two wins to show for it. The lefty though has struggled against the Nationals in ten starts against them in posting a pedestrian 4.64 ERA over 52 innings of work. The Nationals counter with Doug Fister (12-6, 2.66 ERA) who is looking to bounce back off his third straight loss; I think he has good shot here though as he is 2-0 with a strong 1.80 ERA against Atlanta lifetime. This is a good situational play also, Washington gets set to start its second straight home stand, while the Braves are coming off a series in Miami, and as we know, the road has not been kind to Atlanta this year, it’s just 34-37 away from friendly confines (conversely, Washington is 43-27 in front of the home town crowd). The Nats are also looking for revenge after losing two of three in Atlanta last time the teams faced off; consider taking the home side.
AAA Sports
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
1* Bonus Play on the Washington Nationals
The visiting Atlanta Braves will send Mike Minor (6-9, 4.65 ERA) to the hill; Minor has pitched well of late but hasn’t gotten the run support to earn wins. Note that Minor has notched five straight quality starts over his last five trips to the mound but has just two wins to show for it. The lefty though has struggled against the Nationals in ten starts against them in posting a pedestrian 4.64 ERA over 52 innings of work. The Nationals counter with Doug Fister (12-6, 2.66 ERA) who is looking to bounce back off his third straight loss; I think he has good shot here though as he is 2-0 with a strong 1.80 ERA against Atlanta lifetime. This is a good situational play also, Washington gets set to start its second straight home stand, while the Braves are coming off a series in Miami, and as we know, the road has not been kind to Atlanta this year, it’s just 34-37 away from friendly confines (conversely, Washington is 43-27 in front of the home town crowd). The Nats are also looking for revenge after losing two of three in Atlanta last time the teams faced off; consider taking the home side.
AAA Sports
Jimmy Adams
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Bonus Play Baltimore Orioles
The offense continues for the Orioles as they come into Fenway tonight after a 7-5 win over the Rays yesterday. Nelson Cruz remains hot, hitting 2 more home runs to make it a MLB leading 39. Miguel Gonzalez will remain in top form as he’s coming off a complete game shutout of the Reds. He’s allowed a total of only 3 runs in his last 22 1/3 innings. Gonzalez also has had good success against the Red Sox, posting a 3-0 career record against them.
The Red Sox continue to play poor baseball, losing 15 of their last 20 games at home. The entire starting rotation has pitched terribly, and that’s not likely to change with Joe Kelly on the hill. Kelly is your typical average starter who can eat up some innings and allow 3+ runs. Against an offense like the O’s he’ll get banged around. Advantage in every category to Baltimore here at a very nice price range. Take the Orioles.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Bonus Play Baltimore Orioles
The offense continues for the Orioles as they come into Fenway tonight after a 7-5 win over the Rays yesterday. Nelson Cruz remains hot, hitting 2 more home runs to make it a MLB leading 39. Miguel Gonzalez will remain in top form as he’s coming off a complete game shutout of the Reds. He’s allowed a total of only 3 runs in his last 22 1/3 innings. Gonzalez also has had good success against the Red Sox, posting a 3-0 career record against them.
The Red Sox continue to play poor baseball, losing 15 of their last 20 games at home. The entire starting rotation has pitched terribly, and that’s not likely to change with Joe Kelly on the hill. Kelly is your typical average starter who can eat up some innings and allow 3+ runs. Against an offense like the O’s he’ll get banged around. Advantage in every category to Baltimore here at a very nice price range. Take the Orioles.
Jonathan Jorcin
NY Giants vs. Detroit Lions
Bonus Play NY Giants
The Lions will open the season at home and are big time favorites with a 6 ½ point spread. The Lions will surely get more offensively with Jim Caldwell taking over since he is such an offensive mind. With Calvin Johnson, Matt Stafford, and Reggie Bush running the offense, points should be plentiful, but it is a big spread for week 1. The Giants also come in with a new look offense as McAdoo has come in to implement his west coast offense, and Eli Manning has struggled in preseason. The big story here though is Rashad Jennings, finally able to be the guy in the backfield. Eli Manning and company will have a good ground game this year.
You have points to play with, take the Giants.
NY Giants vs. Detroit Lions
Bonus Play NY Giants
The Lions will open the season at home and are big time favorites with a 6 ½ point spread. The Lions will surely get more offensively with Jim Caldwell taking over since he is such an offensive mind. With Calvin Johnson, Matt Stafford, and Reggie Bush running the offense, points should be plentiful, but it is a big spread for week 1. The Giants also come in with a new look offense as McAdoo has come in to implement his west coast offense, and Eli Manning has struggled in preseason. The big story here though is Rashad Jennings, finally able to be the guy in the backfield. Eli Manning and company will have a good ground game this year.
You have points to play with, take the Giants.
Scott Spreitzer
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets
Bonus Play New York Mets
I'm recommending a play on the NY Mets with Niese over Lyles on Monday. We expect Colorado's 4-game winning streak to come to an end now that they're back on the road. The Rockies average less than 3 rpg in road night games against southpaws, and Niese has pitched well at home. Jordan Lyles has struggled since returning to the rotation. The right-hander has been tagged for a 6.03 ERA & 1.46 WHIP in his last six starts. I suspect he'll need more run support than his offense will supply in this one. I'm recommending a play on the Mets on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets
Bonus Play New York Mets
I'm recommending a play on the NY Mets with Niese over Lyles on Monday. We expect Colorado's 4-game winning streak to come to an end now that they're back on the road. The Rockies average less than 3 rpg in road night games against southpaws, and Niese has pitched well at home. Jordan Lyles has struggled since returning to the rotation. The right-hander has been tagged for a 6.03 ERA & 1.46 WHIP in his last six starts. I suspect he'll need more run support than his offense will supply in this one. I'm recommending a play on the Mets on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Sam Martin
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals 10:20PM
5* Arizona Cardinals
While the Cardinals are known for their aerial assault, it was the defense that led them to ten wins last year in perhaps the strongest division in the NFL. Those ten wins weren't enough to put the Cardinals into the playoffs, but expectations are high in the desert this year. We'll back Arizona at home Monday night looking for that defense to lead them to another win against an average San Diego team.
Chargers were hard to figure out last season, losing to the likes of Houston, Oakland, and Washington while coming up big in wins against Denver, Kansas City (twice) and a Wild Card win at Cincinnati. That inconsistency keeps us from releasing this play as a premium selection, but against this defense and with a home date against the defending Super Bowl champs up next, we'll lay the field goal with the home side here. 5* Play on Arizona.
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals 10:20PM
5* Arizona Cardinals
While the Cardinals are known for their aerial assault, it was the defense that led them to ten wins last year in perhaps the strongest division in the NFL. Those ten wins weren't enough to put the Cardinals into the playoffs, but expectations are high in the desert this year. We'll back Arizona at home Monday night looking for that defense to lead them to another win against an average San Diego team.
Chargers were hard to figure out last season, losing to the likes of Houston, Oakland, and Washington while coming up big in wins against Denver, Kansas City (twice) and a Wild Card win at Cincinnati. That inconsistency keeps us from releasing this play as a premium selection, but against this defense and with a home date against the defending Super Bowl champs up next, we'll lay the field goal with the home side here. 5* Play on Arizona.
NFL bloggers debate who will cover the spread on Monday Night Football
Among the truly great American traditions is the Monday Night Football doubleheader in the Week 1 schedule. This year, schedule makers have presented us with the Detroit Lions hosting the New York Giants in the early game, followed by the San Diego Chargers visiting the Arizona Cardinals for a Week 1 finale.
In order to get a grasp on this primetime matchup, we’ve enlisted the help of those who know these teams the best.
Expert NFL bloggers Marco of New York blog “Bleed Big Blue” and Zac Snyder (@ZacSnyder) of Detroit blog “SideLion Report” strap on the pads and butt heads over which team not only wins but covers on Monday Night Football: Giants or Lions?
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 47)
WHY NEW YORK WILL COVER
Money in the secondary
One good rule is to follow the money. The Giants broke out the checkbook to amp up its secondary this off season. Additions of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Zack Bowman and Walter Thurmond will give the G-Men tons of options to slow down Calvin Johnson. Megatron was held in check by young cornerback Prince Amukamara in 2013 only gaining 43 yards. Amukamara also bested Golden Tate when he played for Seattle holding the receiver to two receptions for 25 yards
Classic Giants Football
Plan for the Giants to pound the rock. Running backs Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams both looked sharp during the preseason rushing for 407 yards and three touchdowns. While the offensive line looked very sloppy in the passing game, the running game was a different story. The ever evolving line busted open holes allowing big rushing gains. A consistent rushing attack will control the clock and keep the Lions' offense off the field.
Run the numbers
The all-time regular season series is a draw at 20-20-1. The recent numbers lean toward Big Blue. The Giants have taken the last three games against the Lions. Playing on Monday Night favors the G-Men who are 8-4 against the spread over the past 12 games. The last time the Lions beat the Giants in Detroit was 1983. History likes to repeat itself, so if the Giants can slow this game down and the secondary holds up, then it's case closed.
WHY DETROIT WILL COVER
Ford Field revved up
This will be the biggest Monday night in Detroit since the Lions hosted the Bears in Week 5 of the 2011 season. That may have been the best Ford Field crowd in the stadium's history, but one that will be rivaled with MNF in town to kick off the 2014 season. The Lions rode the wave of enthusiasm to an easy cover of the seven point spread that night and ought to do the same this Monday.
Eli can't hang
With a questionable offensive line and a turnover prone Eli Manning, the Giants' offense just won't be able to keep up with the loaded Lions offense.
Golden hands
Matthew Stafford committed his fair share of errors a year ago, but he also suffered from throwing to a receiving corps that dropped more passes than average. The addition of sure-handed Golden Tate means more Stafford passes will go for completions and keep the Lions offense moving.
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 46)
Expert NFL bloggers Kevin Grauel (@KevinGrauel) of San Diego blog “Bolts From the Blue” and Jess Root (@senorjessroot) of Arizona blog "Revenge of the Birds" strap on the pads and butt heads over which team not only wins but covers on Monday Night Football: Chargers or Cardinals?
WHY SAN DIEGO WILL COVER
Efficient offense
Arizona has a strong pair of cornerbacks, but Philip Rivers' 69.5 completion percentage in 2013 was no fluke. The Cardinals have struggled to defend tight ends and the Chargers have two good ones in Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green. Rivers will be able to pick his matchup and keep the offense moving.
Cardinals' offensive line woes
Arizona added Jared Veldheer, but the interior of their offensive line still needs work. Corey Liuget looked like an all-pro in the preseason, and he will give Carson Palmer and the running game fits all night.
Injuries
The Cardinals are very beat up for Week 1. Daryl Washington is suspended, Darnell Dockett tore his ACL and it looks likely that Tyrann Mathieu and Andre Ellington will be sitting out as well. All of those players are a major part of what Arizona likes to do. I don't think they will have enough firepower left to keep up with San Diego.
WHY ARIZONA WILL COVER
No place like home
The Cardinals play extremely well at home. They were 6-2 there in 2013 (5-3 ATS). With a standard three-point spread, Arizona is a safe bet to cover. Three points isn't much and the Cardinals and fans will energize University of Phoenix Stadium in the season opener. Emotions will run high as they will honor Kurt Warner at halftime.
Desert swarm
The defense is still expected to be good. How did San Diego upset the Broncos late in the season in 2013? By running the football. They will not be able to do that against Arizona, who sported the league's No. 1 rush defense. There are some losses to think about on the defensive side of the ball for Arizona, but the guys setting the edge are still very good at it. Don't expect San Diego to have success with their committee of running backs.
The Palmer factor
Carson Palmer plays very well traditionally against San Diego. In six career games against them, he has thrown 14 TDs and only three INTs for a QB rating of over 116 -- the second highest rating he has against any team in his long career. He has more weapons and a better offensive line than he did in 2013.
Among the truly great American traditions is the Monday Night Football doubleheader in the Week 1 schedule. This year, schedule makers have presented us with the Detroit Lions hosting the New York Giants in the early game, followed by the San Diego Chargers visiting the Arizona Cardinals for a Week 1 finale.
In order to get a grasp on this primetime matchup, we’ve enlisted the help of those who know these teams the best.
Expert NFL bloggers Marco of New York blog “Bleed Big Blue” and Zac Snyder (@ZacSnyder) of Detroit blog “SideLion Report” strap on the pads and butt heads over which team not only wins but covers on Monday Night Football: Giants or Lions?
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 47)
WHY NEW YORK WILL COVER
Money in the secondary
One good rule is to follow the money. The Giants broke out the checkbook to amp up its secondary this off season. Additions of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Zack Bowman and Walter Thurmond will give the G-Men tons of options to slow down Calvin Johnson. Megatron was held in check by young cornerback Prince Amukamara in 2013 only gaining 43 yards. Amukamara also bested Golden Tate when he played for Seattle holding the receiver to two receptions for 25 yards
Classic Giants Football
Plan for the Giants to pound the rock. Running backs Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams both looked sharp during the preseason rushing for 407 yards and three touchdowns. While the offensive line looked very sloppy in the passing game, the running game was a different story. The ever evolving line busted open holes allowing big rushing gains. A consistent rushing attack will control the clock and keep the Lions' offense off the field.
Run the numbers
The all-time regular season series is a draw at 20-20-1. The recent numbers lean toward Big Blue. The Giants have taken the last three games against the Lions. Playing on Monday Night favors the G-Men who are 8-4 against the spread over the past 12 games. The last time the Lions beat the Giants in Detroit was 1983. History likes to repeat itself, so if the Giants can slow this game down and the secondary holds up, then it's case closed.
WHY DETROIT WILL COVER
Ford Field revved up
This will be the biggest Monday night in Detroit since the Lions hosted the Bears in Week 5 of the 2011 season. That may have been the best Ford Field crowd in the stadium's history, but one that will be rivaled with MNF in town to kick off the 2014 season. The Lions rode the wave of enthusiasm to an easy cover of the seven point spread that night and ought to do the same this Monday.
Eli can't hang
With a questionable offensive line and a turnover prone Eli Manning, the Giants' offense just won't be able to keep up with the loaded Lions offense.
Golden hands
Matthew Stafford committed his fair share of errors a year ago, but he also suffered from throwing to a receiving corps that dropped more passes than average. The addition of sure-handed Golden Tate means more Stafford passes will go for completions and keep the Lions offense moving.
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 46)
Expert NFL bloggers Kevin Grauel (@KevinGrauel) of San Diego blog “Bolts From the Blue” and Jess Root (@senorjessroot) of Arizona blog "Revenge of the Birds" strap on the pads and butt heads over which team not only wins but covers on Monday Night Football: Chargers or Cardinals?
WHY SAN DIEGO WILL COVER
Efficient offense
Arizona has a strong pair of cornerbacks, but Philip Rivers' 69.5 completion percentage in 2013 was no fluke. The Cardinals have struggled to defend tight ends and the Chargers have two good ones in Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green. Rivers will be able to pick his matchup and keep the offense moving.
Cardinals' offensive line woes
Arizona added Jared Veldheer, but the interior of their offensive line still needs work. Corey Liuget looked like an all-pro in the preseason, and he will give Carson Palmer and the running game fits all night.
Injuries
The Cardinals are very beat up for Week 1. Daryl Washington is suspended, Darnell Dockett tore his ACL and it looks likely that Tyrann Mathieu and Andre Ellington will be sitting out as well. All of those players are a major part of what Arizona likes to do. I don't think they will have enough firepower left to keep up with San Diego.
WHY ARIZONA WILL COVER
No place like home
The Cardinals play extremely well at home. They were 6-2 there in 2013 (5-3 ATS). With a standard three-point spread, Arizona is a safe bet to cover. Three points isn't much and the Cardinals and fans will energize University of Phoenix Stadium in the season opener. Emotions will run high as they will honor Kurt Warner at halftime.
Desert swarm
The defense is still expected to be good. How did San Diego upset the Broncos late in the season in 2013? By running the football. They will not be able to do that against Arizona, who sported the league's No. 1 rush defense. There are some losses to think about on the defensive side of the ball for Arizona, but the guys setting the edge are still very good at it. Don't expect San Diego to have success with their committee of running backs.
The Palmer factor
Carson Palmer plays very well traditionally against San Diego. In six career games against them, he has thrown 14 TDs and only three INTs for a QB rating of over 116 -- the second highest rating he has against any team in his long career. He has more weapons and a better offensive line than he did in 2013.
Trends to Watch - September
By Marc Lawrence
It’s official. The pig is in the air.
That means it is now September and with it an array of NFL handicapping team trends are suddenly in play for fans and ‘trendsvestites’ alike.
Listed below are some of the best and worst team performances during the opening month of September. Team breakdowns include records at home, away, as a favorite, as an underdog, and in division games. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.
Remember, as the late, great Howard Cosell once said, “What’s right isn’t always popular. What’s popular isn’t always right.”
Play accordingly.
HOME TEAMS
Keep an eye on (Good): The Detroit Lions have been fast starters at home with a 27-16 ATS record in the opening month of the season will play host to the New York football Giants (9/8) and Green Bay (9/21).
Keep an eye on (Bad): Here we have home teams that frustrate wagering home fans. Cincinnati is the worst of the bunch at a miserable 13-25 ATS and they will face Atlanta and Tennessee in Week’s 2 and 3.
Jay Gruden will attempt to break the negative cycle in Washington at 15-26 ATS when Jacksonville (9/14) and the Giants (9/25) arrive to face the team without an approved nickname any more.
Arizona will have two shots to better a 13-22 ATS record with San Diego in the desert on the opening Monday night and San Francisco 13 days later.
AWAY TEAMS
Bad: It has not mattered if Sam Bradford has been hurt or not or any other Rams quarterback for that matter, St. Louis has been a superior ‘play against’ road team at 14-29 ATS. Because of an early bye on this year’s schedule there is just one chance to bet against the Rams: at Tampa Bay (9/14).
Keep an eye on (Bad): This has been a mystery for years why Pittsburgh has been a bad bet at 14-27 ATS, never quite ready to begin the season. Let’s see how they do a short week at Baltimore (9/11) and 10 days later at Carolina.
As good as Detroit has been at home this month, that’s how bad they are away from home at 16-27 ATS. Keep a watchful eye on them at Carolina (9/14) and two weeks later in the New Jersey vs. the Jets.
FAVORITES
Keep an eye on (Good): The defending NFL champions Seattle are moneymakers out of the gate at 27-15 ATS and should be favored all three times against very good competition, facing the Packers, at San Diego and a rematch with Denver in the first three weeks. Given the fact they are 17-1 SU and 13-5 ATS at home the past two seasons behind QB Russell Wilson they will be hard to fade at CenturyLink Field.
Bad: September has been a very bad month for several teams when listed as favorites. Let’s start with Carolina at 7-17 ATS and since they are lacking perimeter playmakers, they could be in trouble during the initial three weeks of the year being anticipated as favorites.
Most likely Arizona (7-16 ATS) will only be favored once and that is the opener with the Chargers. Presuming Sam Bradford can go, the Rams (12-24 ATS) are a Week 1 home favorite versus Minnesota, but Week 3 when Dallas is on the shores of the Mississippi River is up in the air right now.
Keep an eye on (Bad): As mentioned, the Bengals will have two home tilts and will be doling out points and with an 11-21 spread record in that role. You might have to look to the other side.
UNDERDOGS
Good: Especially in the Tony Romo era, betting against Dallas has been profitable. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have been money as underdogs the first three to four weeks of the season at 23-10 ATS. While we don’t know for certain, there is a possibility the Boys could be dogs the entire month facing San Fran (9/7) at Tennessee (9/14), at St. Louis (9/21) and when Drew Brees and company comes to Big D on the final Sunday of September. Watch closely.
Bad: Pittsburgh’s pathetic road record has translated into crummy results as an underdog at 9-20 ATS. Those two away outings to visit the Ravens and Panthers could mean more ‘play against’ opportunities for NFL bettors.
DIVISION
Good: Kansas City has annually fared well against AFC West rivals early with a 22-11 ATS mark and makes the trip to Denver in Week 2 to see if they can make their good fortune continue.
Keep an eye on (Bad): If you think you have seen Cincinnati’s name a lot as a ‘play against’ squad in this treatise you are correct. And they fit again in AFC North action making the trip over to Baltimore on Sept. 7 with a 12-20 ATS record in division action.
By Marc Lawrence
It’s official. The pig is in the air.
That means it is now September and with it an array of NFL handicapping team trends are suddenly in play for fans and ‘trendsvestites’ alike.
Listed below are some of the best and worst team performances during the opening month of September. Team breakdowns include records at home, away, as a favorite, as an underdog, and in division games. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.
Remember, as the late, great Howard Cosell once said, “What’s right isn’t always popular. What’s popular isn’t always right.”
Play accordingly.
HOME TEAMS
Keep an eye on (Good): The Detroit Lions have been fast starters at home with a 27-16 ATS record in the opening month of the season will play host to the New York football Giants (9/8) and Green Bay (9/21).
Keep an eye on (Bad): Here we have home teams that frustrate wagering home fans. Cincinnati is the worst of the bunch at a miserable 13-25 ATS and they will face Atlanta and Tennessee in Week’s 2 and 3.
Jay Gruden will attempt to break the negative cycle in Washington at 15-26 ATS when Jacksonville (9/14) and the Giants (9/25) arrive to face the team without an approved nickname any more.
Arizona will have two shots to better a 13-22 ATS record with San Diego in the desert on the opening Monday night and San Francisco 13 days later.
AWAY TEAMS
Bad: It has not mattered if Sam Bradford has been hurt or not or any other Rams quarterback for that matter, St. Louis has been a superior ‘play against’ road team at 14-29 ATS. Because of an early bye on this year’s schedule there is just one chance to bet against the Rams: at Tampa Bay (9/14).
Keep an eye on (Bad): This has been a mystery for years why Pittsburgh has been a bad bet at 14-27 ATS, never quite ready to begin the season. Let’s see how they do a short week at Baltimore (9/11) and 10 days later at Carolina.
As good as Detroit has been at home this month, that’s how bad they are away from home at 16-27 ATS. Keep a watchful eye on them at Carolina (9/14) and two weeks later in the New Jersey vs. the Jets.
FAVORITES
Keep an eye on (Good): The defending NFL champions Seattle are moneymakers out of the gate at 27-15 ATS and should be favored all three times against very good competition, facing the Packers, at San Diego and a rematch with Denver in the first three weeks. Given the fact they are 17-1 SU and 13-5 ATS at home the past two seasons behind QB Russell Wilson they will be hard to fade at CenturyLink Field.
Bad: September has been a very bad month for several teams when listed as favorites. Let’s start with Carolina at 7-17 ATS and since they are lacking perimeter playmakers, they could be in trouble during the initial three weeks of the year being anticipated as favorites.
Most likely Arizona (7-16 ATS) will only be favored once and that is the opener with the Chargers. Presuming Sam Bradford can go, the Rams (12-24 ATS) are a Week 1 home favorite versus Minnesota, but Week 3 when Dallas is on the shores of the Mississippi River is up in the air right now.
Keep an eye on (Bad): As mentioned, the Bengals will have two home tilts and will be doling out points and with an 11-21 spread record in that role. You might have to look to the other side.
UNDERDOGS
Good: Especially in the Tony Romo era, betting against Dallas has been profitable. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have been money as underdogs the first three to four weeks of the season at 23-10 ATS. While we don’t know for certain, there is a possibility the Boys could be dogs the entire month facing San Fran (9/7) at Tennessee (9/14), at St. Louis (9/21) and when Drew Brees and company comes to Big D on the final Sunday of September. Watch closely.
Bad: Pittsburgh’s pathetic road record has translated into crummy results as an underdog at 9-20 ATS. Those two away outings to visit the Ravens and Panthers could mean more ‘play against’ opportunities for NFL bettors.
DIVISION
Good: Kansas City has annually fared well against AFC West rivals early with a 22-11 ATS mark and makes the trip to Denver in Week 2 to see if they can make their good fortune continue.
Keep an eye on (Bad): If you think you have seen Cincinnati’s name a lot as a ‘play against’ squad in this treatise you are correct. And they fit again in AFC North action making the trip over to Baltimore on Sept. 7 with a 12-20 ATS record in division action.
