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MLB Monday
Cubs-Pirates: The Cubs did indeed beat the Brewers Sunday, but should have beaten them much worse. They were 2-11 with runners in scoring position Rizzo came back to normal, and because the Brewers threatened in the ninth Rondon threw 29 pitches. So, they didn’t play as clean as it may look and their pen, which had a 4.44 ERA over the last week, was stressed a bit.The Pirates get a shut out WIN on only three of their own hits, used most of their good arms out of the pen, but not for many pitches. Their bullpen had been miserable of late, too. Cubs pen perhaps slightly more rested over the weekend. Kris Bryant left the game Sunday so we’ll see what’s up with him. Pirates in a first-game-back, which hasn’t been overly kind to them, but it was only a short trip out and not tons of time zones. A big series for the Pirates, but probably bigger for the Cubs because they cannot afford to fall too much further back. Pirates are 35-17 at home and about .500 against LHP, but what really surprised me was that they are only 18-26 against the NL Central. These two haven’t played since the middle of May – and I suspect the Cubs are the more improved team since then. Interesting that they’ve only played six game, and more interesting that Lester didn’t pitch in either series. Lester, who hasn’t got the great W/L record lately, but has a sick 0.86 WHIP over the last seven starts. Liriano lost to the Cubs (Wood) at home back in April. He probably remembers that, but is was more the pen that lost it than him. The Pirates have won his last six starts. David Ross catching Lester weakens the Cubs offense, usually. In any batter versus pitcher stats – edge to Liriano, but the Pirates’ looks were back in 2011 when Lester pitched at Pittsburgh when he was with Boston. So, toss up. Reasonable chance of a T-Storm, fairly warm, and a slightly helping breeze to left in a hitters’ park. Cubs hitting .226 since the break and the Pirates .262 – scoring about equal, Cubs doing it more with the home run, which Liriano doesn’t usually give up, although surprisingly he’s allowed 8 of his 10 this season at home. He owns left handed hitters.
Arizona-Washington: The one thing we do know is that the Nats are going to be glad to get home, losing a series in New York, and playing on Sunday Night in a crazy atmosphere. One thing I have always held against Washington is their mental toughness, or lack thereof. Sending Fister to the mound is almost a crapshoot, but the one thing we might reasonably conclude is that he’ll need the bullpen. He hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning in his last five starts, and until he beat the Fish last week, Washington had lost four of his five previous starts since he came back. Normally, I’d look to back Arizona against a left handed pitcher, but interestingly enough, Fister is allowing RIGHT handed batters to hit .367 against him in 146 at bats this season. Arizona played Houston fairly tough on Sunday and their bullpen was once again very solid. The D-backs had the hits, but not when they need them to, and the top third of their order went 0-12. Godley has shown he can win on the road, but has had great run support. He shutout the Brewers at home in his first start and was marginal at best in Seattle, allowing two home runs. Washington’s bullpen has been very good of late, and they’ve needed to be. Going into Sunday nights’ game, the Nationals had only had double-digit hits ONCE since July 12th, or 16 games. Arizona has NOT been a bad road team, and Washington has fared better against LHP (W/L record) than RHP. The variables here are more the starters than anything else, which is a bit unusual. Not sure which Fister and who knows whether the Nationals “spot” and not seeing Godley is a factor. Arizona still in the playoff hunt, and as long as they think they are, then they are, and their only really bad loss in quite some time was that 9-2 loss against Kuechel on Saturday.
Giants-Braves: It’s getting to the point where we have to start thinking about only playing teams that are still playing for this season, except in rare market mis-priced games. I’m not sure what was up with that line in the Giants game on Sunday, and it was early and often. And right. Hard to fathom – but impossible to ignore. San Francisco HAD been scoring more on the road and HAD been much better (W/L) against lefties. After winning 12 of 13 against VERY marginal offenses they’ve now lost three of four to decent offenses. Atlanta’s as a whole is not decent, but they did put up six runs on eleven hits Sunday, and Freeman was 0-5, and Simmons didn’t play. We could easily write off Atlanta, and that may be what we do, but people wrote off the Phillies who just made people a ton, and people gave me sh*t for playing the Astros so much early in the season. Cain is certainly not the Giants’ best option. He’s beaten the Mets (who weren’t hitting at the time) and the Padres, and lost (badly) to decent hitting teams. The Braves are not a great offensive team, but we’re talking about one game, and they are 26-20 at home. Atlanta could be confident since they did split a series with the Giants in San Francisco, and Foltynewicz actually won one of those games. However, the downside there is that the Giants have seen him. Only Maybin (when he was with San Diego) has any significant at bats against Cain. Freeman is 0-5. Foltynewicz pitched well at Baltimore, who’d never seen him, but he threw over 100 pitches and the last two (and only other) times that happened he was hit very hard the next game. That is enough to probably keep me off Atlanta. I don’t know about ON the Giants at -150 on the road after yesterday, but off Atlanta. That total of 8u (-120) seems awful high for a game at Turner Field, so I do think it comes down, but perhaps there for a reason. The weather will be pretty typical Atlanta Summer weather, and I wonder if the heat and humidity of Arlington wore down the Giants, who aren’t used to that at all – and losing another hour coming East.
Mets-Miami: The same deal as Washington for the Mets in that there’s a huge emotional series and a late night game and the the travel to South Florida. So the final verdict will be out, but we have to look early. Fernandez only went six innings for the Fish, meaning they used bullpen. And in fact although it was a great win for them, Ramos gave up two in the top of the ninth before Hecavarria hits a three run home run in the bottom of the ninth – of all people, and it was the bottom of their order that got it done. That doesn’t happen often in Miami. The Fish were swept four games in New York early in the season, and have actually won two series’ since then (against New York). The Mets bullpen has not been dominant and lets’ not forget the emotional letdown, win or lose, that they’ll have after Sunday night. Not to mention that this is the same Mets team that is 17-32 on the road. So, I can’t get carried away with the recent drama of Flores or the big Saturday night win. The Mets have lost the last seven starts Colon has made, and once he pitched to the level of his competition (Kershaw) otherwise he’s been bad. Very tough to take New York here. Koehler was hit hard by the Nationals last week, and had been very good at home, but also hadn’t pitched at home since the end of June. He’s pitched well against the Mets – only allowing two long balls in 175 or so at bats. Tejada and Nieuwenhuis (in five at bats) have some hits against him, but the meat of the order does not. It is interesting to me that the total here is 7o (-120) in most places. I could see 7 but not closer to 7.5. Travel no factor for Miami. Much like so many other games from now on, there’s enough evidence to probably keep me off New York, but perhaps not enough to TAKE Miami.
San Diego-Milwaukee: I doubt either team is feeling very good about life, least of all the Padres, who hung around in Miami against Fernandez, tied the game, went ahead, then lost with a three run home runs by a slap hitter in the bottom of the ninth. Then they have to fly to Wisconsin. That cannot be a good thing. And then there are the Brewers, who seriously look like the don’t care – the body language and the swinging early in counts. The strength of the Brewers has been their bullpen, which years was maligned. They (Milwaukee) haven’t had ten hits in a single game in ten games, and have only scored more than three runs in one of those ten games. San Diego is probably more motivated because they can actually finish at .500 since they’re only three games below that, and for the Padres, that’s something for most of them to play for, at least the ones that have been there a while. They’d been winning before they ran into Urena, scoring a bunch of runs, and the Fernandez, who they could have beaten, so I like their chances. Ross did leave the lat game with some thigh tightness, so we need to make sure that’s not a lingering issue. He’s (Ross) typically a ground ball pitcher who keeps the ball in the park, which should bode well in this park. The downside here is that in limited at bats, most of the Brewers have hit him very well. I need to find out when and where. Peralta looked pretty reasonable against the Giants, after missing almost two months. When he’s on, he too is a ground ball pitcher, but when he’s not he can be bad – really bad. He ran out of gas the last game (so they say) which is not unexpected given the layoff. San Diego hasn’t seen much off him – so that matchup is tough to nail down. If the Brewers hadn’t hit Ross at some point I’d be taking the Padres without question.
Houston-Texas: The Astros are still winning, and still hitting home runs. At home. On the road they are still six games under .500 and now are playing a division rival, an in-state rival, outside, in the heat. Although Houston won on Sunday, they were out hit by Arizona and didn’t have that big crooked inning they often do. We know they’re young, and I wonder if at some point they don’t start thinking too much. This game is the start of a long road trip that also takes them to the West Coast, more division games, and IL games with the Giants – so the Astros “mid term” starts now. The Rangers have won four of five and most by just outscoring people, until whatever that game was against the Giants on Sunday. I don’t know if it was Perez being brilliant or the Giants being off, but someone knew something. The situation is in favor of Texas, IMO. I’ve watched Colby Lewis pitch for years, and he’s typically solid, keeps teams in games, and then all of a sudden has that one outing you just cannot explain. What always concerns me about him is that he is a flyball pitcher, now in a hot summer hitters park, against a team that can hit it over the fence, and he’s had three straight 100+ pitch games which for him is a lot. Houston has seen a fair bit of him, but slight edge to Lewis on paper. I keep waiting for McCullers to fall apart and he keeps getting better. He’s only 21, which is why I wait for the meltdown game that hasn’t come. He keep the ball on the ground and in the park, and of course the Rangers haven’t seen him. One would think this could well be a Houston F5 game, given that. I don’t see Lewis shutting out the Astros, regardless, and it may well take a while for the Rangers, if at all, to get to McCullers. However, that heat is a factor, IMO, but the Texas pen is nothing most teams need to worry about. They did show some signs over the weekend, and the intangibles late, if it’s close, have to go to the streaking Rangers, I would think.
Rays-White Sox: Chicago and Samardzija were lit up with two big innings by the Yankees, but Chicago didn’t need much bullpen because Carroll took them the rest of the way when Samardzija couldn’t get out of the fifth inning. They had really been pounding the ball, and winning, until the Yankees took two of three. However, those wins were against Boston, a team in serious disarray, and the Indians who cannot score. Prior to those two series’ they were beaten by St. Louis and Kansas City, good teams. I am not sure which category to put the Rays in, since I guess they’re technically still in the AL East race but there’s a team between them and the Yankees – not to mention nine games in the loss column. The Rays pen has not been great most of the season, but they are 17-11 against left handed starters. Fundamentally the Rays are the better team with more cohesiveness and perhaps playing harder right now. Quintana has been pitching well recently, a great WHIP, but every now and then he gets destroyed, and predicting when is tough. I do know that there was some early Rays money, and Karns is a lot like Quintana in that he is generally solid but can get crushed every so often. The Rays have seen very little of Quintana, which surprised me a little, and Chicago has seen Karns once, which is more than I expected, but he beat Chris Sale at home back in June. If the White Sox were either good or contending (one would think they go hand in hand) I’d take them, assuming they’d make adjustments. Not a huge edge either way, but Karns generally isn’t someone that’s going to give you much more than six innings, so perhaps a Rays F5 or the other option would be trusting their bullpen, which might take some doing. From a rest standpoint that edge goes to the White Sox in this game.
