Dave Cokin
Monday Bonus Play 9:40 PM
MLB (957) MILWAUKEE BREWERS (958) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Take: (957) MILWAUKEE BREWERS +100
One of the lessons I’ve learned in studying the metrics and assessing value based on those numbers is that being stubborn can cost one plenty of money. A really good example of this occurred last year when bettors who put major stock into the peripheral stats that most don’t even know about kept losing wagers against Jeff Locke. The Pirates lefty kept getting extremely lucky as the numbers said that he was supposed to get beat. But Locke kept finding a way to turn batted balls into outs along with stranding runners at what amounted to an absurd rate. I got burned trying to beat Locke a few times myself, but actually ended up doing very well fading him. That’s because I had learned from personal history that waiting for the regression to begin, which it ultimately did, made more sense than trying to get ahead of the curve.
That brings me to Brandon McCarthy. The Diamondbacks righty has been remarkably unlucky this season. Trust me, he’s pitching way better than that 5.29 ERA might lead you to believe. His xFIP and SIERA, each more accurate barometers overall, are below 3.00. McCarthy is generating a career best 56% ground ball rate. He’s walking fewer than two batters per nine innings, while striking out better than eight. These are some really strong numbers. But the luck factor has been incredible for McCarthy, and he is the Murphy’s Law poster guy for MLB 2014.
Metrics followers are continuing to support McCarthy because he’s “supposed” to be getting better results. I hope he does at some point, and in fact if he maintains his first half form, those wins might indeed start to come. But there’s no way I can back him until that correction starts coming. Until that time, he’s a guy who I’m either leaving alone or trying to beat, and tonight I’ll go the latter route.
Wily Peralta still has his occasional command issues, but the hard throwing Milwaukee righty is establishing himself as a legit big league commodity. One of the things I like about Peralta is that he has figured out how to avoid major damage when his stuff isn’t sharp, and that’s a huge key for any pitcher wanting to anchor a staff.
The team data here is close, so I’m basically just going with the McCarthy flow. Bad luck or not, the Diamondbacks are 2-12 when he starts, including 1-7 at Chase. The Snakes as a team are horrific at home, and unlike some recent predecessors, this edition of the Brewers is actually playing well on the road. There’s not a shred of doubt in my mind that Milwaukee will be the popular public side tonight, but all I can do is agree with the so-called squares as they continue to line up to bet against McCarthy. One good start where it doesn’t fall apart might well be all it takes for McCarthy to become a go with guy, but until that time, mark me down for the other side. In tonight’s case, that means I favor the Brewers.
Monday Bonus Play 9:40 PM
MLB (957) MILWAUKEE BREWERS (958) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Take: (957) MILWAUKEE BREWERS +100
One of the lessons I’ve learned in studying the metrics and assessing value based on those numbers is that being stubborn can cost one plenty of money. A really good example of this occurred last year when bettors who put major stock into the peripheral stats that most don’t even know about kept losing wagers against Jeff Locke. The Pirates lefty kept getting extremely lucky as the numbers said that he was supposed to get beat. But Locke kept finding a way to turn batted balls into outs along with stranding runners at what amounted to an absurd rate. I got burned trying to beat Locke a few times myself, but actually ended up doing very well fading him. That’s because I had learned from personal history that waiting for the regression to begin, which it ultimately did, made more sense than trying to get ahead of the curve.
That brings me to Brandon McCarthy. The Diamondbacks righty has been remarkably unlucky this season. Trust me, he’s pitching way better than that 5.29 ERA might lead you to believe. His xFIP and SIERA, each more accurate barometers overall, are below 3.00. McCarthy is generating a career best 56% ground ball rate. He’s walking fewer than two batters per nine innings, while striking out better than eight. These are some really strong numbers. But the luck factor has been incredible for McCarthy, and he is the Murphy’s Law poster guy for MLB 2014.
Metrics followers are continuing to support McCarthy because he’s “supposed” to be getting better results. I hope he does at some point, and in fact if he maintains his first half form, those wins might indeed start to come. But there’s no way I can back him until that correction starts coming. Until that time, he’s a guy who I’m either leaving alone or trying to beat, and tonight I’ll go the latter route.
Wily Peralta still has his occasional command issues, but the hard throwing Milwaukee righty is establishing himself as a legit big league commodity. One of the things I like about Peralta is that he has figured out how to avoid major damage when his stuff isn’t sharp, and that’s a huge key for any pitcher wanting to anchor a staff.
The team data here is close, so I’m basically just going with the McCarthy flow. Bad luck or not, the Diamondbacks are 2-12 when he starts, including 1-7 at Chase. The Snakes as a team are horrific at home, and unlike some recent predecessors, this edition of the Brewers is actually playing well on the road. There’s not a shred of doubt in my mind that Milwaukee will be the popular public side tonight, but all I can do is agree with the so-called squares as they continue to line up to bet against McCarthy. One good start where it doesn’t fall apart might well be all it takes for McCarthy to become a go with guy, but until that time, mark me down for the other side. In tonight’s case, that means I favor the Brewers.
