Monday 6/12/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Power Sports

Colorado vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh

Very interesting line move here w/ Colorado currently taking 80% of the overall bets, yet the money line has actually INCREASED in favor of the Bucs. That's a sure sign that sharp money is on the home team here.

Colorado had its seven game win streak snapped yday at Wrigley as they fell 7-5 to the Cubs. Still taking three of four in that series is impressive as is the Rockies' now NL-best 24-11 road record. But is that sustainable? I'm skeptical. Tonight's starter Kyle Freeland has a perfect 6-0 team start record on the road, but his WHIP - both away and overall - isn't all too impressive. Another reason for skepticism with this club is the fact that four of their starters - Freeland among them - are rookies. I'd look for them to start slowing down, especially out on the road.

It should be an emotional scene tonight at PNC Park as Jameson Taillon makes his return to the mound after being out for over a month due to cancer treatment. Taillon's return is exactly the kind of thing that could turn around what has - so far - been a lost season in Pittsburgh. The team is just 28-35 overall, but they did manage to salvage a split here vs. Miami by taking the last two games. So the home team does have some "momentum" (there's that dreaded word again!) coming into this series.

 

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Wunderdog

Braves at Nationals
Pick: Under 9

Washington is a big park, great for pitchers, and the Atlanta Braves head out on the road ranked #18 in runs scored and #23 in slugging. At least starter Mike Foltynewicz (3.48 ERA) is on the mound, off a pair of strong performances allowing no runs in 14 innings. He has a 3.30 ERA on the road, but a 1-3 record as Atlanta doesn't score much for him away from home. Washington is on a 15-5-1 run UNDER the total, including 8-0-1 UNDER at home. The Nationals have Stephen Strasburg (7-2, 2.80 ERA) on the mound allowing two runs or less in five straight starts. Batters are hitting just .202 off him for the season with 89 Ks in 80+ innings and only 22 walks. He has faced Atlanta twice this season with a 2.45 ERA while striking out 21 in 14+ innings with three walks. The UNDER is 8-3-1 when Strasburg pitches, and this shapes up as a defensive duel.

 

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These quirky MLB ballparks could impact your baseball totals wagers

It is a novice mistake to bet a Cubs home game before checking to see which way the winds are blowing at Wrigley Field.

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Chris Archer was in a sour mood following his team’s 4-2 loss to the Chicago White Sox last Tuesday.

Archer was victim of a fly ball that turned into a home run after hitting the catwalk in Tropicana Field and he let reporters know he was not impressed.

“I saw a routine fly ball that didn’t even get to the warning track,” Archer told the Tampa Bay Times. “Definitely the shortest home run probably in major-league history.”

The catwalk in the Trop’s outfield is certainly an unfavorable quirk for pitchers, but the data tells us the Ray’s home park is a pitcher’s paradise.

ESPN’s Park Factor grades baseball fields on six different hitting categories and ranks each stadium by season. The tracking statistic shows there have been fewer runs scored in Tampa Bay’s games at Tropicana Field compared to the club’s road games in each of the past 10 seasons. Batters have a lower home run rate and a higher strike out rate when hitting in MLB’s only permanent domed stadium.

The Trop has been an Under park in nine of the last 10 seasons and the Under is a collective 432-347-38 (55.4 win rate) since 2008 – not including this season.

Here are a couple of other ballpark betting notes to keep in mind for you seam-heads out there:

Rogers Centre, Toronto Blue Jays

The status of the retractable roof at Rogers Centre is something bettors often want to know before betting on a Jays home game. There is a bit of an urban legend that the wind scoops balls up and over the outfield wall when the roof is open.

Baseball Prospectus did a great job in 2013 demonstrating that run production did not increase drastically when the roof was open compared to when it was closed.

The Jays home field is still known as a favorable park for those standing in the batter’s box. The distance from the plate to the walls in left, center and right field all fall under the major-league averages.

And while Toronto’s games are routinely higher scoring at home compared to the road, the Over is just 85-110-9 since the start of the 2015 campaign.
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Wrigley Field, Chicago Cubs

It’s not called the Windy City for nothing. It is a novice mistake to bet a Cubs home game before checking to see which way the winds are blowing. And while there was an advantage to betting the Over when the wind was blowing out, oddsmakers have eradicated any value with sharper lines over the past seven years.

The Over went 108-64 (62.8 win rate) from 2005 to 2010 in games when the wind was blowing out at Wrigley Field according to BetLabs. Oddsmakers caught on to the trend and adjusted properly. In 2016, the average betting total in games when the winds were blowing in was 7.4 and 9.1 when the winds were blowing out.

From 2011 to 2016 the Over is just 65-80 at Wrigley with the wind blowing out.

Chase Field, Arizona Diamondbacks

Pitchers could have legitimate beef with this ball park. Arizona is the warmest major market city in the United States with game-time temperatures routinely going over 100 F. The stadium altitude is second only to Coors Field and the ball certainly soars in the thin desert air.

Only the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati and Yankee Stadium in New York have surrendered more home runs than Chase Field since the start of the 2016 season.

Chase Field has an average ranking of 6.14 in Park Factor since 2003 and it finished second in 2016 and 2014 behind only Coors Field in both years. This season Chase Field is first in Park Factor with teams scoring more runs, getting more hits, clubbing more big flies and walking at higher rates when playing on this diamond.

Arizona is also one of the hottest home Over bets going right now in MLB betting. The Over is 110-75-11 at Chase Field since the start of the 2015 season.

It is certainly worth noting that, much like Rogers Centre, the ball flies much better at Chase Field when the roof is open. Since the retractable roofed stadium opened in 1998, there is over one full run more scored under the Arizona sky than under the metal roof.

 

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MLB Daily Line Drive: Monday's picks, betting odds and analysis

Double Play-Picks

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (-225, 9)

Yesterday was a tough day with our picks, but we can always rely on Stephen Strasburg to get us back on track.

Strasburg takes the mound today at home in the opening game of a three-game series with the "we're not as bad a most people though we would be" Atlanta Braves.

Strasburg is backed by the top offense in the National League (BA: .272, SLG: .463, OPS: .802) and the Nats have won eight of his last 10 trips to the hill.

The Braves are coming off a rough weekend in Queens where they were battered and bruised by the New York Mets - getting outscored 16-3 in three consecutive losses. Not a good look leading up to a series with the division leaders.

Strasburg should control the game today and the Nationals' bats will do what they have to do against Mike Foltynewicz.

Pick: Nationals -1.5 (-120)

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (+120, 8.5)

The New York Yankees' offense has proven to be very streaky - and they are on a very impressive streak right now. Over their last five games they are averaging an insane 11 runs per contest. Aaron Judge is leading the American League in almost every offensive category and as a team they have scored the most runs in all of Major League Baseball with 353 (5.9 runs per game).

Since no pitchers in baseball seem to be able to slow them down, we don't expect an overnight cross-country flight to be able to slow them down either.

The Angels are also scoring some runs recently, averaging 8.25 runs per game over their last four contests, and will have the pleasure of facing the slumping Masahiro Tanaka tonight. The Yanks have dropped five Tanaka starts in a row and it has mostly been the veteran righty's fault - 22.2 innings, 10.72 ERA, 11 home runs allowed.

Alex Meyer gets the ball for the Angels and he hasn't been great this season. Walks have been his biggest issue and the disciplined Yankees' approach at the plate will be a huge problem for him. Meyer has surrendered 24 walks this season in only seven starts and extra runners on base can quickly lead to extra runs on the scoreboard with the Bronx Bombers coming to town.

Pick: Over 8.5

Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 59-50-6

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves (4-5, 3.48 ERA, $-288)

Mike Foltynewicz got off to a rough start to the 2017 season, but he has turned it around in his last two starts against lower-tier opponents. In 14 innings pitched against the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cincinnati Reds he has allowed zero runs and only six hits.

Folty and the Braves are in tough against the Nationals tonight and can be purchased at +195 on the moneyline.

Slumping: Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (4-3, 4.75 ERA, $-260)

With all of the injury issues that the New York Mets have been dealing with in 2017, the pressure has really been on Jacob deGrom to carry the load in the starting rotation. Could all of that pressure be catching up to him?

Overall, he had been having a really solid season...until his last two outings. A road game in Arlington against the Texas Rangers and a home game against the powerful Milwaukee Brewers added up to 15 earned runs allowed (16.88 ERA), 18 hits allowed, four home runs allowed, six walks allowed, and only eight strikeouts in eight innings of work.

deGrom gets the Chicago Cubs today and is currently listed as a -125 favorite.

Monday's Top Trends

* The Chicago Cubs are 3-13 in their last 16 road games. +115 today @ Mets.
* The Texas Rangers are 1-5 in Yu Darvish's last 6 starts vs. Houston. +100 today @ Astros.
* The Baltimore Orioles are 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs. a right-handed starter. -120 today @ White Sox.
* Over is 8-1 in Masahiro Tanaka's last 9 road starts. NYY/LAA Total: 8.5.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

Well, there's something you don't see everyday - Los Angeles and San Diego will be the MLB cities with the lowest temperatures on tonight's schedule. The high temperature for the game between the Padres and the visiting Cincinnati Reds is only expected to reach the upper 60's. The rest of the country is experiencing a June heat wave while Southern California suffers through cooler temps.

There is a chance of some thunderstorms developing near Target Field where the Minnesota Twins are scheduled to host the Seattle Mariners tonight. There is about a 50 percent chance of precipitation so keep an eye on that one.

There will be a 10-13 mile per hour hitter's wind blowing out to right at Citi Field where the Cubs will be in town to play the Mets. The total is currently at 8.5. There is also a hitter's wind (10-12 MPH out to right-center) in the forecast at Fenway Park for tonight's game between the Sox and Phillies. The total for that one is at 10.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals Guru
Jun 12 '17, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | ATL vs WAS
Play on: UNDER 9 -125

Free Total Annihilator On Braves vs Nationals under 9 -125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Benton

Big, big total at Oracle Arena for Monday night's 5th game of the NBA Finals, but after getting burned on Friday by looking low at Quicken Loans Arena, I will side with the Over in Game 5 tonight between the Cavaliers and the Warriors.

Cleveland shot light's out (53%) from behind the arc on Friday, and raced to a massive 49 points by the end of the first quarter as Game 4 was the easiest Over ever. While I don't feel that a similar shooting night is in store for the visiting Cavs, I do think they will be able to put up enough to combined with Golden State on another series Over.

Each of the last 3 games in this series have played Over the total, and the Cavaliers are on a 9-4 Over run their last 13 postseason games leading into tonight's showdown.

Golden State is also on an "offensive" surge, landing Over the price in 8 of their last 9, and 12 of their 16 playoff games this postseason.

The numbers are there to support the Over, and so is the scoring to get us Over the posted total.

Game 5, Cleveland-Golden State to head Over the total.

1* CLEVELAND-GOLDEN STATE OVER