Monday 5/11/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Monday 5/11 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

3,8/2,3/2,4,7,8,9,10/4 = $24


LATE $1 PICK 4: 1,2,45/2,3/5/2,3,9 = $24

MEET STATS: 61 - 180 / $342.90 BEST BETS: 9 - 16 / $29.30 SPOT PLAYS: 3 - 14 / $36.00

Best Bet: SPLIT THE HOUSE (1st)

Spot Play: SUGARSAM (3rd)


Race 1

(7) SPLIT THE HOUSE is by a top sire out of a dam that has produced one that has raced that has won 6 times, earned $237K and was third here in the 2012 Shes A Great Lady stakes. This one looks like a short-priced winner in the opener. (8) CANADIAN WRITER put in a big third 1/4 and is getting closer; for a share. (1) WINDSUN STETSON showed little from the 10-hole but came home quickly and is a good bet to show much more here.

Race 2

(7) GOLDEN SLUMBER was well-backed but faltered first-over in her debut; another chance for this well-bred trotting filly. (4) TSWALU was an unlucky loser as one powered up with a remarkable late burst to nail him. He's logical here. (10) GAME ON HANOVER continues to improve and is sure-gaited. He should get a slice even from out there.

Race 3

(5) SUGARSAM had a nice record last year and showed improved late speed in his last qualifier. 'O Sullivan sends them ready; top call at a square price. (8) KONA KID chased a good one in his season's debut and should be able to build on that start. (7) PHYSICALLYINCLINED showed some talent at the end of his 2YO campaign and qualified well. Trainer Moore can improve one rapidly as a sophomore; beware.

Race 4

(3) POISONOUS was closing rapidly late last week but the winner was long gone. He looks good to graduate here. (8) AXELERATE SEELSTER looks like the main danger after beating all but a much more experienced foe in his debut. (2) JET BLACK CADDILAC is a good one for the bottom of tris and supers but not likely a win threat.

Race 5

(2) REASONABLE FORCE went a big first up trip vs. comparable in his season's debut and should be even better tonight; top call. (3) YUCATAN has sneaky good form and could notch his first win of the year here with a bit of luck. (4) CANBEC KINGKAZIMIR continues to race well enough to close late for shares without threatening the winner most nights.

Race 6

(7) TWOMICKEYTRIP faces easier here and his form is good enough to take these; top billing. (4) CRAFTY MASTER cut out a huge 1/2 and predictably stopped vs. better. A more patient drive could see him right there on the money vs. these. (8) D GS JUSTLIKETHAT exits the same heat as the top two and was first up in big fractions; respect.

Race 7

(4) BODY BALANCE has been in tremendous form the past month and comes off a career-best mile last week; call to repeat. (2) DOUBLEDOWN GASS hit the exacta more than 50% of the time last season and looks ready to roll again; for as far as he goes on the front. (9) WILD AND CRAZY GUY exits the Don Mills series where he wasn't disgraced. He can share here.

Race 8

(2) ROBERT HILL showed good closing power in his season's debut and likely leaves more alertly and is prominent throughout here. (1) ARAMBLIN HANOVER has paced two very good miles but he seems to lack the killer instinct as shown in his overall record. (4) SPORTS BETTOR tried the Diplomat Series and was beaten by several good ones. He fits much better here.

Race 9

(2) TEAM CAPTAIN broke his maiden off a 3-week break now returns to a 7-day rotation. He can beat these but should be watched in warm-ups and post parade for soundness. (3) LIBRADO HANOVER was a big winner in his debut and is the likely chalk here off that effort. (6) JEB was a good Grassroots performer last season and comes in with a good qualifier; for a share.

Race 10

(5) CHARMED LIFE so badly lays over this field that she should be barred from wagering. Bet against her at your own risk. (2) HER NAME IS LOLA is in great form and always on the move in her miles; exacta factor. (1) BAX OF LIFE likely rides the rail most of the way and closes late for a share.

Race 11

(9) NATURESCAPE closed a big gap in the second 1/2 of his season debut and could take this if given a more aggressive steer. (2) SPORTSMANSHIP was a powerful first-over winner and is the obvious one to beat here. (1) REGAL SIGHT was visibly going well late last week and is another contender in the finale. (7) TWIN B SCANDAL rarely misses a check and could spice up the exotics at a price here. (8) READ THE PROPOSAL is another that will be passing horses late and could make the bottom rung of vertical wagers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 5/11 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

MEET STATS: 137 - 429 / $734.30 BEST BETS: 17 - 34 / $65.00

Best Bet: INTHEPERFECTSTORM (9th)

Spot Play: KINDOFABIGDEAL (11th)


Race 1

(5) THEREISAPACEFORUS switched to the Banca barn last week but had no real chance from post eight; gelding can be more involved tonight. (3) CEE PEE PANIC drops to the basement conditioned level off the Brainard claim; overbet? (6) MISSISSIPPI HIPPY never seems to win but he certainly fits well with these.

Race 2

(1) MY LITTLE DELIGHT gets serious post relief and faces a pretty weak bunch. (4) SOUTHWIND LEA ships in for Steve Elliott making her 2015 debut off some even qualifiers; filly may need a start. (3) DELIGHTFUL PLAN has been flashing speed at Freehold for owner/driver Dan Dube.

Race 3

(3) OR has always been an erratic sort but Brennan held him together well in that qualifier and I'll give him a shot to grind down the speed. (2) DONT STOP MACH is up in class off an easy win. (1) MYSTICAL VALENTINE gets that all-important post relief and he's been in good form for some time now.

Race 4

(4) ALL FIRED UP seems to have regained his stride out of town for the Vallee barn and Brennan can be forwardly placed with him. (3) ELECTROFIRE returns locally and he's had plenty of success over this track in the past. (1) CONNERY BLUE CHIP clearly isn't what he used to be but he looms a big threat from this spot.

Race 5

(7) SCARLET CHASER has been making live moves with comparable stock recently and he could be a halfway decent price here with some suspect rivals inside of him. (3) DR C'S Z TAM always seems to be close, never seems to win. (1) LORD OF MISRULE ships in for Burke with some minor stakes experience and we'll see how he fits here.

Race 6

(6) BELIEVEINTHESPIRIT needs some pace help from this spot but he's shown the ability to fire home and he should be an attractive price. (2) DREAMLANDS ART has been flat in his last few but he's got plenty of class. (1) CHEYENNE SEEBER returns after a failed try at The Big M and he was racing well when last seen here.

Race 7

(6) COASTER ships in for Burke and may just be faster than these. (3) SIR SAM'S Z TAM was second best last week chasing a rated pace; second best again? (2) JK ALLNITELONG is facing tougher tonight off an easy win.

Race 8

(1) NOT BEFORE EIGHT graduated from the NW2 ranks and finds a cozy spot in NW4; undefeated filly should take another. (3) POP THE TAGS hinted at ability in those qualifers; MacDonald picks up the drive tonight on the NY bred filly. (5) ROCK MY WORLD has stayed pacing in her last few which is improvement.

Race 9

(1) INTHEPERFECTSTORM was put in an impossible spot by Sears last week in a tough drive to swallow; he will have no such issues tonight and will jog at a short price. (4) WHOGOESFIRST has some class to him and could be leaving the gate. (3) HILARIOUS HALO can save ground and rally late.

Race 10

(6) RU READY TO ROCK drops again in class off a decent effort and he should be ready to fire versus these. (1) BITTERSWEET CHAMP draws best and should be close up throughout. (2) URBANA BAYAMA is another one of those Canadian shippers for Lachance that can't be completely ignored.

Race 11

(3) KINDOFABIGDEAL attacked with all he had last out but was rebuffed; another chance. (1) CAN HE GO is not one of my favorites but he can clearly work out a winning trip from this spot. (2) FAMEOUS WESTERN is still trying to recapture last year's form but he's capable.

Race 12

(3) MCERLEAN broke seemingly out of the blue last week; assume that was a fluke and he'll take care of business tonight. (1) DONAU has held his form for some time now and he's got a big shot from the rail. (6) BIGRISK just missed to the classy Flem N Em N last out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Finger Lakes (4th) Miss Minto, 4-1
(7th) Readyfortheday, 5-1


Mountaineer (1st) Buy With Gold, 8-1
(2nd) Honest Desire, 7-2


Parx Racing (4th) Image, 6-1
(9th) Bella Figlia, 9-2


Thistledown (3rd) Air Baca, 7-2
(7th) English Pound, 9-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Preview: Yankees (20-12) at Rays (17-15)

Game: 1
Venue: Tropicana Field
Date: May 11, 2015 7:10 PM EDT

Strong performances from the bullpen have vaulted the New York Yankees to the top of the AL East. Equally impressive play from the starting staff could keep them there.

On tap following a historic outing, CC Sabathia takes the mound for the Yankees on Monday night to kick off a four-game road set against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Sabathia (0-5, 5.45 ERA) will have a difficult time replicating Sunday's outing from teammate Michael Pineda, who recorded 16 strikeouts in seven innings against Baltimore - tied for second-most in team history and matching an MLB record for a pitcher with seven or fewer innings of work.

Sabathia hasn't even had 16 strikeouts over his last four starts. He has only 14, four of which came in his fifth loss Wednesday when he allowed nine hits and four runs in a 5-1 defeat at Toronto.

The stout left-hander ranks among the worst pitchers in baseball with 11.13 hits allowed per nine innings. He has also received very little offensive support - just nine runs through six starts - contributing to a career-worst nine-start winless streak dating to last season.

"He's pitched well enough to win in two or three games," manager Joe Girardi said. "We just haven't scored a lot of runs."

New York's offense fared well Sunday behind Pineda. Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran homered, while Jacoby Ellsbury and Didi Gregorius each drove in two runs in a 6-2 victory.

They'll look for a similar showing against Alex Colome (2-0, 1.80), who has been solid through eight career starts but snapped a three-start scoreless streak with two runs allowed in Wednesday's win over Boston.

He owns a 0.94 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .186 average over his last five starts and hasn't surrendered an earned run in 11 career innings against New York (20-12).

The Rays (17-15), three games behind New York in the division, enter Monday's matchup following a four-game split with Texas. They scored 15 runs to win the first two games before dropping the series finale 2-1 on Sunday.

"We just missed the big hits, but we put together some good at_bats," manager Kevin Cash said.

Tampa Bay's bullpen put in plenty of quality work in the series, pitching 15 1-3 innings while allowing just one run.

It was a performance characteristic of the back-end of New York's bullpen - Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller - who have yet to allow an earned run in 35 combined innings.

Tampa Bay has dropped five of six meetings with the Yankees this season, including a three-game sweep at home April 17-19. Alex Rodriguez went 4 for 10 with two home runs and six runs scored during that series, and Brett Gardner scored four runs with three steals.

Evan Longoria has been quiet against New York this season, going 4 for 22, but could break out considering his track record against Sabathia. He has owned the lefty in his career, going 24 for 58 (.414) with six home runs, eight doubles, 14 RBIs and a 1.390 OPS.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

A's Parker injures elbow
The Sports Xchange

Oakland right-hander Jarrod Parker was dealt a blow in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, suffering a broken bone in his right elbow while pitching Saturday in a minor league game.

Parker underwent Tommy John elbow ligament reconstruction surgery more than a year ago and was rehabbing with Triple-A Nashville when he threw a pitch, collapsed on the mound and had to be helped to the dugout.

The fracture was determined by X-rays and a CT scan.

"We don't know how much this sets back his recovery at this time," A's trainer Nick Paparesta said. "He's going to go home and we'll set him up to see a specialist."

Parker posted records of 13-8 in 2013 and 12-8 in 2012 for the A's. He was acquired from Arizona before the 2012 season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Sox demote OF Craig to Triple-A
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

The Boston Red Sox optioned slumping outfielder Allen Craig to Triple-A on Sunday.

The team also optioned left-handed reliever Robbie Ross Jr. to Pawtucket and promoted outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. and right-hander Steven Wright.

Craig, a former All-Star, is batting .135 (7-for-52) with one home run and two RBIs in 24 games this season. He has a .130 average since his trade from the St. Louis Cardinals in July 2014.

The 30-year-old Craig played a key role for the Cardinals in two World Series (2011 and 2013) and hit .291 in parts of five seasons with St. Louis. He has not been the same player since sustaining a Lisfranc fracture in his left foot near the end of the 2013 season.

Ross has struggled since coming to the Red Sox in a trade from Texas, posting a 6.17 ERA in 13 appearances.

Bradley was in Boston's starting lineup Sunday against the Toronto Blue Jays, batting eighth and playing right field. He was hitting .343 at Pawtucket.

Wright was 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA overall in four starts for Pawtucket.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Blue Jays' Saunders returns to DL
The Sports Xchange

Outfielder Michael Saunders was placed on the 15-day disabled list by the Toronto Blue Jays, who promoted utility man Steve Tolleson.

Saunders, 28, is expected to be sidelined at least two weeks after he experienced inflammation in his surgically-repaired left knee, which had fluid drained and received a cortisone shot on May 3. He missed four games after that before returning on Saturday.

Tolleson had his contract selected from Triple-A Buffalo. Chris Colabello started in left field for the Blue Jays on Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Report: Rays' Smyly likely done for season
The Sports Xchange

Tampa Bay Rays left-hander Drew Smyly is expected to undergo season-ending surgery to repair a torn labrum, according to MLB.com.

Smyly told reporters on Saturday that he did not know what the issue was with his ailing left shoulder, but it now appears likely he is headed for surgery. Smyly was sidelined for most of spring training with shoulder tendinitis. He made his season debut April 24, but began to experience pain during his most recent start against the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday, when he gave up one run in six innings.

"Yeah, I started feeling it in Boston," Smyly said on Saturday, per MLB.com. "Just kind of kept pitching through it. And the next day it didn't respond well.

"You've got so much adrenaline, it's not like it was affecting my pitching (in Boston). But (it was) definitely getting tight and stiffening up. And it didn't feel loose, it didn't feel smooth."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cardinals' Carpenter expected back Tuesday
The Sports Xchange

St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter did not make the trip with the team to Pittsburgh because of an unspecified ailment, but he is expected to be back in the lineup on Tuesday, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported Sunday.

Carpenter has had various symptoms, such as an accelerated heart rate, dizziness, sleeping problems and extreme fatigue, that led to the Cardinals giving him some time off. However, the precise cause of the symptoms has not been determined despite a series of tests.

Carpenter is expected to join the team for Tuesday's game in Cleveland after having four consecutive days off.

Carpenter is batting .333 with five home runs, 14 doubles, 20 RBIs and 23 runs scored.

Mark Reynolds has been playing third base in Carpenter's absence.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'On the Diamond'

MLB Handicappers taking a look at Monday's matchup between Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins at Chavez Ravine will discover a slew of positive betting numbers in favor of Dodgers. The Dodgers have enjoyed home cookin' this year compiling a 13-2 record and currently sport a 12-1 streak in front of the friendly crowd. Those digging deeper to get a better take on the situation will have also noted Dodgers' starter Zack Greinke off to a second consecutive 5-0 start to a season, heads to the mound with a near perfect 7-1 stretch on home field and his teams (LA,Mil,KC) are 5-0 vs Miami. And, no doubt catching the attention of MLB handicappers on the Marlins end are these negative betting number. Starter Tom Koehler is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA at L.A., Marlins are 1-4 on the season in road openers and for whatever reason have suffered Monday Blues going 0-4.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays May 11, 7:10 EST

The New York Yankees are 5-1 through their first six of nineteen games scheduled against the Rays in 2015. If Joe Girardi's crew wants to maintaining its early season success vs Rays they have a few obstacles to overcome. Yankees are just 1-5 in Sabathia six starts this season and have a 2-10 skid at the Trop w/Sabathia. Yankees also need to solve Rays starter Alex Colome who is enjoying a 5-0 team start record dating back to last season including a team start win vs Yankees.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday's six-pack

-- Ricky Fowler played last ten holes in -8, won the PLAYERS title in a three-way playoff; if golf announcers got fined for every cliche they uttered, most would work for free, some would owe money, especially on NBC.

-- White Sox have played five home series, won two of three in all five.

-- All 11 of the Rangers' playoff games this spring were decided by one goal.

-- Anaheim eliminated the Flames in five games; Ducks are 8-1 in playoffs.

-- Why do people make TV commercials with screaming in them? Does this make people buy the product? It makes me turn the channel.

-- Orioles are back in Baltimore tonight; lets hope its a peaceful night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play MON Pirates w/ COLE -170

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hopefully you’ve been betting these profitable overachieving MLB pitchers
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez may be 6-0 this season with a glistening 1.85 ERA to boot, but you won’t find a plethora of sophisticated bettors willing to lay prices in the neighborhood of -200 on a regular basis with a pitcher backed by one of the most unstable bullpens in the majors.

Instead, the sharper minds in Las Vegas look to identify quality, underrated starting pitchers who not only offer an abundance of value, but are supported by capable bullpens as well.

Who are some of these underrated pitchers you may ask? Here are 10 MLB starters who, through the first six weeks of the season, have outperformed their preseason projections.

*Profit is based on wagers of $100 (Ex: laying $125 to win $100 on a favorite or laying $100 to win $140 on an underdog)

Michael Wacha, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 5-0
STL record in Wacha starts: 6-0
Profit: +$636

The 23-year-old, three-year veteran was a career 9-7 entering the 2015 campaign before setting the league on fire through the first six weeks of the season with a 5-0 record backed by the sixth-best earned run average in the National League (2.09).

Wacha has come up roses on both ends of the spectrum this season, tasting victory three times as a dog and twice as a favorite, with one no decision (5/3 vs. Pittsburgh) that still resulted in a 3-2 Cardinals victory.

More ace-like performances will be expected due to the fact that stud All-Star Adam Wainwright was lost for the season with an Achilles injury, but note that Wacha took the bump on May 8 as a +102 dog at division-rival Pittsburgh, indicating that bettors may still need more time before buying what this dominant righty is selling.

Next up: Thursday, May 14 at Cleveland

Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Minnesota Twins

Record: 3-0
MIN record in Pelfrey starts: 5-1
Profit: +$584

The last time Pelfrey finished a season as a .500-or-better starting pitcher came back in 2010 with the New York Mets, so to say his 3-0 commencement to the 2015 campaign complete with a 2.62 ERA is a surprise might be the understatement of the decade.

With the exception of his May 3 outing against the lowly Chicago White Sox, Pelfrey has taken the bump as an underdog in every single appearance this year, meaning very few are offering up the credit that is due the 31 year old through 34.1 quality innings of baseball.

Take note that the Minnesota bats have come alive in recent weeks, which is yet another reason why bettors should be paying extra close attention when Pelfrey’s number is called.

Next up: Thursday, May 14 at Detroit

Bartolo Colon, RHP, New York Mets

Record: 6-1
NYM record in Colon starts: 6-1
Profit: +$559

Matt Harvey’s lights out return from Tommy John surgery has dominated the subplot of the Mets’ 20-11 storybook start to the 2015 season, but it’s the 285-pound, 41-year-old Colon who has been putting fat stacks of cash in bettors’ pockets at an alarming rate since the beginning of the new league year.

Backed by an uncanny diet of what we can only surmise consists of cheese steaks and sinker balls, Colon has turned seven starts into six victories and a 3.30 ERA despite an average of just 4.2 runs of support per game this season.

But perhaps more shocking than anything else is the fact that Colon is pitching very deep into ball games in 2015 and currently ranks second in the National League behind Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto in innings pitched (46.1)

Next up: Friday, May 15 vs. Milwaukee

Brandon Morrow, RHP, San Diego Padres

Record: 2-0
SD record in Morrow starts: 5-0
Profit: +$500

Morrow’s 2-0 record is nothing to write home about at this point in the season until you realize that the 30-year-old former Blue Jay has ripped off a 2.73 ERA through five starts, each of which has resulted in a victory for the 17-16 Padres.

Morrow made this list because it’s imperative that bettors get familiar with his 2015 production, but it’s also essential to note that he was recently placed on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 3 due to shoulder inflammation. We’ll play it by ear once the righty returns to the rotation, but don’t forget about this guy.

Next up: TBD (15-day DL)

Shelby Miller, RHP, Atlanta Braves

Record: 4-1
ATL record in Miller starts: 5-1
Profit: +$479

Traded from St. Louis to a rebuilding Atlanta club this past offseason as part of the Jason Heyward deal, Miller never got the memo explicitly stating that his new organization wasn’t interested in winning this year.

So the 24-year-old, 15-game winner in 2013 decided to do what he does best – regardless of his surroundings – and began beating up on National League batters from Day 1 in Atlanta.

Despite the fact that three of his six starts this season have resulted in three or fewer runs of support, Miller has racked up 31 strikeouts through 38 innings pitched with a 1.66 ERA (second in NL) while holding opposing hitters to a paltry .178 batting average. This white-hot start is exactly the reason why many are making the case that Atlanta came out on top in the Heyward deal.

Next up: Monday, May 11 at Cincinnati

Michael Pineda, RHP, New York Yankees

Record: 5-0
NYY record in Pineda starts: 6-1
Profit: +$463

The secret is out on Pineda after his seven-inning, 16-strikeout performance Sunday in a 6-2 win over division-rival Baltimore, which is interesting because this guy was real close to flaming out of the league after his All-Star debut of a season in 2011.

However, as it stands, the 26 year old from the Dominican Republic currently ranks first in the American League in strikeouts (54), 13th in ERA (2.72) and seventh in WHIP (1.01).

The downside here is that unlike the rest of the pitchers on this list, Pineda comes with a relatively hefty price tag thanks to his AL East-leading (20-12), public-loving Yankees.

Next up: Friday, May 15 at Kansas City

Dallas Keuchel, LHP, Houston Astros

Record: 4-0
HOU record in Keuchel starts: 6-1
Profit: +$440

Houston’s shocking 20-12 start can be traced to a combination of timely hitting and quality starting pitching, the latter of which has been bolstered by Dallas Keuchel’s ability to carry last year’s breakout performance over into the current season.

The 27 year old’s 1.39 ERA, 51.2 innings pitched and 2.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) all rank first in the majors at the moment, but the interesting note here for bettors is that Keuchel – despite a rock solid 2014 campaign – has taken the bump as an underdog in three of seven starts this year. Expect that percentage of favorite/underdog listings to change in the very near future.

Next up: Friday, May 15 vs. Toronto

Dan Haren, RHP, Miami Marlins

Record: 4-1
MIA record in Haren starts: 5-1
Profit: +$404

Remember when Haren was raising a stink this past offseason by telling anyone who would listen that he didn’t want to pitch anywhere but in the state of California?

Well, it looks like the South Beach humidity and spacious confines of Marlins Park have served as the Fountain of Youth for the 34-year-old righty who had posted a 4.00-plus ERA in each previous season since 2011.

Haren broke quickly from the starting gates this year and made this list not only because of his flashy 2.68 ERA and 0.92 WHIP (fourth in NL), but even more so because of the fact that he’s been listed as a -125 or smaller favorite (and in two cases, underdog) in every start this season.

Next up: Tuesday, May 12 at Los Angeles Dodgers

Jason Vargas, LHP, Kansas City Royals

Record: 3-1
KC record in Vargas starts: 4-1
Profit: +$339

Despite the handsome profits Vargas has returned for his investors in 2015, it’s important to pay very close attention to the fact that the 32 year old’s ERA is currently a lofty 5.26, which speaks volumes as to the staggering 5.2 runs of support he’s received over the first six months of the season.

Bottom line: This equation is going to balance itself out in the very near future, meaning Vargas will serve as an excellent PLAY AGAINST candidate.

Next up: TBD (15-day DL retroactive to May 6 with left flexor strain)

Alfredo Simon, RHP, Detroit Tigers

Record: 4-1
DET record in Simon starts: 4-2
Profit: +$244

After winning a career-high 15 games that paved the way for his first All-Star election in 2014, Simon landed in Detroit where he’s recorded a respectable 3.44 ERA through his first six appearances of the 2015 season.

This guy may not be lighting the world on fire at the moment, but the reason Simon made the list is that he’s been posted as an underdog in four of six starts this season, so most bettors have yet to recognize the value that exists when the 34 year old strides out to the bump.

Simon isn’t a world-beater like some of the names listed in this column, but he can make you some money at minimal risk.

Next up: Tuesday, May 12 vs. Minnesota

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Monday

(963) YANKEES at (964) RAYS 7:10 PM

Take: (964) RAYS -119

This will be mostly about CC Sabathia, who takes his turn for the surging Yankees as they open a series at the Slop against the Rays and Alex Colome.

A quick note on Colome. He’s done very well in two starts for Tampa Bay and I don’t see any issues backing him right now.

Now let’s talk about Sabathia. First off, don’t focus on the ERA. Like batting average, ERA is an okay stat in terms of measuring how a player is performing, but there is now far more revealing data that paints a more accurate picture. When zeroing in on those numbers, it becomes fairly clear that Sabathia has been pretty much league average. That’s not great by any means, but it also indicates that perhaps one shouldn’t be racing to the betting window to wager against the big lefty every time he takes the mound.

Here’s a little more on Sabathia. For no apparent reason, the Yankees have managed to play their worst baseball when he pitches. They haven’t hit for him, and the Yankees defense has been spotty when CC pitches as well. Consqeuently, while the Yanks reside atop the AL East, they’ve lost all but one of Sabathia’s starts this season.

Tonight, CC has to try and get something done in a ballpark where he’s generally struggled throughout his entire career. Sabathia has below par numbers at Tampa Bay, and he’s had a terrible time with Evan Longoria. That could be of some significance here, as Longo is putting up some terrific numbers at home and he’s also hitting better than .500 so far against lefties.

The Rays got more bad news over the last few days regarding their pitching staff. Alex Cobb is done for the year and now Drew Smyly will be joining Cobb in the surgery room as the lefty will require an operation on his ailing shoulder. So this team has gone from having what appeared to be a potentially very strong rotation to quite a bit less than that. But Colome looks as though he might be ready to claim a regular rotation spot, and while I don’t see him as a future All-Star, he should be a pretty solid mid-rotation type.

As for tonight, I’m willing to bet that Sabathia’s tough luck has a decent chance to continue, and Colome is dealing a nice little hot hand right now. I’ll side with the Rays to win the series opener.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Free MLB Play for Monday, May 11, 2014 7:10 PM ET

(953) ATLANTA BRAVES VS (954) CINCINNATI REDS

Take: UNDER

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Monday, May 11, 2015 is in the MLB scheduled contest between the Atlanta Braves and the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds and Braves both bring losing streaks into today's matchup. The Braves just got swept by the Washington Nationals after Sunday's loss, while the Reds dropped the last two in their IL series with the White Sox. This will be the second series between these clubs with the first being split at two games a piece. The Reds will start Mike Leake. Leake is having a good season with a 2-1 record and 2.47 ERA in five starts. However, Leake has been even better of late, allowing no earned runs over his last 16 innings. Moreover, one of those where an eight inning shutout of the Braves where he allowed just two hits. Shelby Miller will start for the Braves. Miller is also have a very good season with a 4-1 record and 1.66 ERA in five starts. Two very good pitchers square off here and it's very likely both can go late into this contest. Your Bonus Play for Monday is to take the UNDER.

 

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Scott Spreitzer

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

Bonus Play Tampa Bay Rays

I'm recommending a play on the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday. The Yankees are off to a great start through the first six weeks of the season, but they have not been able to shake the Rays, who enter this series just three games back of the AL East lead. C.C. Sabathia has not won a decision in six starts this season and the Yankees, who're 20-11 overall, are just 1-5 when the veteran lefty takes the mound. Sabathia has not fared well against the Rays over the last few seasons, including at the Trop, where he has been tagged for a 5.36 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and .278 BAA in his last six outings. Evan Longoria has enjoyed facing Sabathia, lighting up the southpaw for a .404 average with four home runs and 10 RBI in 52 at-bats. We should note Tampa ranks 7th in OPS and 4th in the league in HRs against southpaws this season. Alex Colome is off to a terrific start being eased into things in 2015. He's punched-out 10 batters in 10 innings, while not allowing a single walk or home run. Colome, a righty, has not allowed an earned run or a home run in 11 IP against the Yanks. The price is fair on the home team and I'm recommending a play on the Rays on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

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Platinum Plays

Free Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates w/Cole -170 Over Philadelphia

 

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R&R TOTALS

FREE MLB Over-Under Monday 5-11-15
OVER 7 Miami/LA Dodgers

 

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PURE LOCK

FREE MLB play Monday 5-11-15
Toronto +110