Monday 5/1/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bruce Marshall

Baltimore at Boston
Pick: Baltimore

Rick Porcello's season thus far has been nothing to write home about, as aside from one good start vs. the Blue Jays on April 19 (a game the Bosox actually lost), Porcello has a 6.26 ERA in his four other starts. And in his dominating 2016 campaign, Porcello did not have an easy time vs. Baltimore, just 1-1 with a 3.13 ERA in three starts vs. the Birds. This is a decent price for the O's and surprisingly effective starter Dylan Bundy, with a 1.65 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 32.2 innings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stephen Nover

Tigers+125

I'm not a fan of Trevor Bauer. This is too high of a road price to lay with Bauer against southpaw Danniel Norris. The Indians have lost seven of the last eight times they've faced a lefty starter.

Bauer had a 6.39 ERA last September. He's continued bad with a 6.26 ERA with one quality start in four outings this season. Bauer already has surrenderd 11 extra-base hits in 23 innings, including five homers. Bauer has a 7.24 career ERA versus the Tigers in 11 appearances, including 10 starts.

Norris, by contrast, has a 2-0 mark with a 1.69 ERA in four career starts versus the Indians.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

Baltimore/BOSTON Under 8½

We’re committed to playing one baseball total daily for the remainder of the year and if it works out, we’ll start posting more. We’re studying weather conditions and how it affects the flight of the baseball. The effect of humidity on air density is very slight and is actually opposite what it is commonly purported to be. The common reputation of humidity is that it is heavy; however, this is a misnomer. Humidity is actually light for a projectile to fly through, because there is more hydrogen in humid air than in dry air, which contains a larger percentage of nitrogen. And, of course, nitrogen is heavier than hydrogen.

There is a scale that takes into account humidity, as well as temperature and elevation-related barometric pressure that gives us an Air Density Index reading at every ballpark or zip code and the reading today at Fenway is 72,64, which is higher than yesterday’s reading between the Cubs and Red Sox, where the final was 6-2 but it was 2-1 going to the eighth inning. A Cubs error in the eighth led to two Boston runs and the game still went under the number. The two teams combined for just 11 hits. The temperature in Boston is just 49.8 (°F).

Keep in mind that Coors Field Air Density Index reading is generally in the low 50’s while almost all other parks are between 60 and 80. Also keep in mind that low Air Density Index means high scoring and a high reading means low scoring. This is a high reading with two very decent pitchers going. Also note that both teams are coming off intense series on the weekend that generated a lot of fanfare and interest so there is a letdowm factor on a Monday night in play here too.

Please keep in mind that we’re still experimenting with these readings when applying them to baseball totals. We’re fine tuning it as we go along but we’ve put in the work and have a clear understanding of how this all works. This looks like the best total of the day.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Wilton

Monday's comp play is the Rockets plus the points at the Spurs.

San Antonio was able to snare the last 3 series meetings against Houston during the regular season, but the Rockets picked up the against the spread win the last time these teams did meet, and Houston's one straight up win this year did come at San Antonio back in early November.

Houston has the shooters to stay within striking distance this evening in Game One, and the fact of the matter is the Spurs aren't getting any younger as they go deeper into the postseason this May.

I have a feeling the Rockets have a real shot at winning this game outright as they look to advance in the playoffs. Why not take the points in that case?

Siding with Houston plus the points y'all.

3* HOUSTON

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Benton

Monday night comp play on the Raptors plus the points to cover at the Cavaliers.

Cleveland has not played since April 23rd, so expect the Cavs to get off to a slow start in this semifinal series against a Toronto team that they beat in the Eastern Conference Finals last May.

The Raptors were successful during the regular season against the Cavaliers, as they won outright in one of the two series meetings at Quicken Loans Arena, and they covered in both with the points at Cleveland.

Toronto closed out their opening round series with 3 straight wins and covers over Milwaukee, while Cleveland is still just 3-5 against the spread their last 8 games dating back to the regular season.

I will take my chances and grab the points as the Raptors keep Game One close.

1* TORONTO

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chris Jordan

I'm not sure what the Run Line price will be, as there is always a delay with the number in Chicago Cubs games at Wrigley Field, but I'm taking the baby bears against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Cubs return home after a weekend set in Beantown, and after losing 6-2 to the Boston Red Sox in the Sunday night TV game, I think we'll see Chicago take its frustration out in this series lid-lifter.

The Phillies come in hobbling on a three-game losing streak, after enjoying a six-game win streak prior to that. The last thing they need, after being knocked around by the Dodgers in Los Angeles, is to have to visit Wrigley Field and face an angry Cubs team.

After going 7-2 at home in the season's first month in 2016, the Cubs are a meager 4-5 at Wrigley this season, so they'll have added motivation on May Day, to start the second month with a huge win. Shouldn't be a problem against a Phillies team that is 4-8 on the road this season.

1* CUBS -1.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Brayman

My Bonus Play for today is on the New York Mets, over the Atlanta Braves. And in this game, I want you listing both scheduled starting pitchers, as I like New York right-hander Robert Gsellman over Atlanta right-hander Julio Teheran in a rematch from just last week.

Gsellman (0-2, 8.23) is looking for his first win of the season, and I think this is a great spot.

Not only is he out for revenge, but the Mets are too, after Atlanta took a two-game series in New York last week.

The Braves are back home after a 4-4 road trip. And even though they have won four of the last five games, the Mets are in after taking two of three at Washington over the weekend. And while I know New York has lost 11 of its past 14 and was beaten 23-5 by the Nationals on Sunday, the line is dictating the sharp side of this game.

Think about it...

The Braves won both in New York and are on a 4-1 run. The Mets have struggled offensively, have lost 11 of 14 including yesterday's shellacking.

Yet the oddsmakers opened the Mets +110, and it is down to +105. Why aren't the Braves bigger favorites?

The play here is on New York, and list both.

4* METS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Eric Schroeder

My free winner for Monday night is on the Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line, over the San Francisco Giants.

This continues to be the strongest rivalry on the West Coast, and quite frankly might be the fiercest in the National League. The West division rivals get together for the series lidlifter in East L.A., and my money is on a rout.

The teams split a series in San Francisco last week, which included a trio of one-run games and extra innings in the fourth.

Things will be different this week, as the Dodgers will be prepared for San Francisco's pitching, and their hitters will have their timing down at home.

The Dodgers have won four in a row and six of their past eight games, having overcome a handful of injuries. This is an important homestand, and an even more important series to start the record.

They should have no trouble against the Giants, who have the worst record on the senior circuit.

Take the Dodgers on the Run Line.

4* DODGERS -1.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Balfe

Pirates/Reds Over 8.5

The Pirates have been awful against right handed pitching so they will get relief today facing a left handed starter. Cincinnati always has power in their bats and I expect the Pirates to jump out early with runs against the lefty pitcher. This is one of those games that goes over the total before the 5th inning.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Rose

Indians at Detroit
Play: Over 8.5

The Tribe flat out owned this rivalry last season winning 14 of the 18 overall skirmishes. But with Bauer on the bump, I find it hard to envision them getting this series started off on the right foot. Detroit has murdered him throughout his career. At the same time, I’m not exactly sure I’m ready to start trusting Norris either regardless of the fact that he’s excelled against the Indians in his career. With that, the best course of action might just be to root for both teams and look for the offenses to set the tone in the opener. This has been a high scoring rivalry of late with the over cashing in nine of the last 11 confrontations. Should Cleveland force Norris out of the game early, it would only make the matchup that much juicier with Carlos Santana and company readily able to eat against the league’s worst bullpen.